Steve Alexander

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Top 25 Fantasy Power Forwards

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

14. Tim Duncan Spurs

Duncan will be one of the league's elder statesmen when we see NBA action again, while DeJuan Blair is still knocking on the door in San Antonio. The lockout could hurt Duncan more than any other player, as his legs and knees are quickly approaching old age, if they're not already there. He's played in 75, 78 and 76 games over the last three years, and prospective owners should look for that number to come in around 74 this time, assuming we get in a full season. His scoring took a major hit last year, down from 17.9 to 13.5, and he averaged less than 10 boards for the first time in his 14-year career, but he also saw his blocks increase to 1.9 per game. While I doubt he fully bounces back, he should still have at least one solid season left in his career.

15. Kevin Garnett Celtics

Like Duncan, Garnett is one of the oldest players in the league, entering his 17th season. He made it through 69 and 71 games in the last two seasons, averaging less than 15 points and 9 boards in each of them. Jeff Green is waiting in the wings, but free agent Glen Davis is on his way out, which should work in Garnett's favor. Of course, the health of his knees will define his next season, but he's still a solid NBA player.

16. David West UFA

If we weren't facing a possible lost season, West would probably be listed even lower than this. Not only is he an unrestricted free agent, meaning we don't know where he's going to play, but is coming off a major knee injury and surgery. The lockout should give him plenty of time to rehab and get ready to play, but the uncertainty of where he will end up, his knee, and his age (31), are pretty big red flags. Oh, and he's not a shot blocker, either, and playing with a point guard other than Chris Paul could really hurt his game.

17. Luis Scola Rockets

Scola's a tough player to rank due to his lack of steals and blocks, or really anything outside of scoring, durability and 8 boards per game. He still has a chance to become a 20 & 10 guy, and the permanent loss of Yao Ming will probably help him. But his game simply looks better on TV than the numbers suggest.

18. Carlos Boozer Bulls

It feels a bit strange having Boozer ranked this low, but he didn't really do much to impress in Chicago last season. After playing in just 37 games in 2008-09, he made it through only 59 of them last season. Yes, the 17.5 points and 9.6 boards are quite serviceable, but the injury risk and 0.3 blocks per game are just not fun in fantasyland. And as Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose get better, Boozer will continue to get older, and squeezed in Chicago.

19. Elton Brand Sixers

Brand bounced back last season, averaging 15 points, 8 boards, and more than a steal and a block in 81 games after playing in just 29 of them two seasons ago. He's entering his 12th season and while he was a pleasant surprise last year, he's still an injury risk, and isn't getting any younger.

20. David Lee Warriors

Lee was a fantasy beast in New York, but saw his numbers dip to 16 points and less than 10 boards a game in Golden State last year. He doesn't block shots and we still don't know how Mark Jackson plans on using him for the guard-oriented Warriors. There is a decent chance he bounces back this season, but his lack of defense is a big concern.

21. Andray Blatche Wizards

Blatche has talent, but doesn't always think when he's on the court. He also has to battle JaVale McGee for boards and blocks, which is a problem. It's also a little concerning that both McGee and Blatche were suspended last season for getting into a fight with one another at a club. While we were looking for a huge jump last season, he only averaged two more points and boards than the previous season, and blocked just 0.8 shots per game. He did steal the ball (1.5 per game) and finished the season averaging 17 points and 8 boards per, but also played in just 64 games thanks to shoulder and knee injuries. He's got plenty of upside, but whether he takes the next step, or falters like Tyrus Thomas has, remains to be seen.

22. Lamar Odom Lakers

Odom's a solid player and the fact he averaged about 14 points, 9 boards and 3 assists was acceptable. But he's entering his 13th season, comes off the bench, and has to compete with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum for touches, which is not too exciting.

23. J.J. Hickson Kings

Hickson gets new life with the Kings and is slotted in (for now) as the starting power forward in Sacramento. He averaged 14 points and 9 boards for the Cavs last year, but came in at less than a steal and block. He also doubled his turnovers (2.2) and shoots less than 70 percent for the line, which are not flattering statistics. But something tells me he's going to have a chip on his shoulder playing for the Kings, and he should be considered as a sleeper pick again.

24. Amir Johnson Raptors

Ed Davis is going to push Johnson for the starting gig in Toronto, which hurts his potential. In fact, Davis could even start over Johnson. But Amir averaged 10 points, 6 boards and 1.2 blocks per game, and also improved his free throw shooting from 64 to 79 percent, which is great. It all depends on whether or not he holds Davis off for the starting gig, but Johnson is still worth a late-round flier regardless.

25. Tyler Hansbrough Pacers

Hansbrough basically lost his 2009-10 season to injury, and played in 70 games last season, averaging 11 points and five boards in just 22 minutes per game. The best news for him is that Josh McRoberts is an unrestricted free agent, meaning Hansbrough should be handed the starting job and see a nice increase in minutes for the Pacers. He's also a coach's dream, and the new staff in Indy is going to like him. Look for him to take a big step in year three and be a serviceable fantasy big man.

The Rest

Channing Frye – Can hit 3s, but has to deal with Hakim Warrick & Markieff Morris.
Tyrus Thomas – As long as Diaw's there, will struggle to start. Sleeper.
Kris Humphries UFA – Was last year a fluke? Where will he play?
DeJuan Blair – Tons of talent, but Duncan still not done.
Tristan Thompson – Will he start at PF for Cavs? Worth a last-round pick.
Derrick Favors – If Jazz move Millsap, look out.
Udonis Haslem - Playing behind Bosh will not be fun.
Brandon Bass – Will battle Ryan Anderson to start, might be a sleeper.
Ryan Anderson – If he beats out Bass, will be nice source of threes, etc.
Drew Gooden - Could start for Bucks, but too many cooks in kitchen.
Charlie Villanueva – Underperformed last year, will have to see how camp goes.
Kenyon Martin UFA – On last legs, literally.
Al Harrington – With K-Mart on way out, Harrington could jump up this list.
Anthony Randolph – If Nellie rolls into Minneapolis, forget about him.
Josh McRoberts UFA – Hard to imagine him being better anywhere than Indy.
Glen Davis UFA – All depends on where he lands.
Ed Davis – Super sleeper, will challenge Amir Johnson for starting job.
Carl Landry UFA – Lacks boards/blocks, and we don't know where he'll play.
Bismack Biyombo – If you need blocks at the end of your draft, get him.
Taj Gibson – Will be a hot pickup when Boozer gets hurt.
Reggie Evans UFA – Rebounding is middle name, but new location could hurt.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute RFA – Bucks crowded at PF.
Trevor Booker – Needs a Blatche injury to have value.
Yi Jianlian RFA – Ditto.
Marcus Morris – Worth keeping an eye on, but not drafting in Houston.
Markieff Morris – Could challenge Warrick, Frye for minutes in PHO.
Hakim Warrick – Good rebounder, but that's about it.
Darrell Arthur – Played well at times last year, but Z-Bo is the man in Memphis.
Anthony Tolliver – If Nellie coaches Wolves, Tolliver becomes a sleeper.
Marreese Speights – Brand would have to go down for him to have value.
Troy Murphy UFA – Has anyone fallen faster?

Steve "Dr. A" Alexander is the senior editor for the NBA for and a contributor to The 2017-18 NBA season marks (at least) his 16th year of covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld. Follow him on Twitter - @Docktora.
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