The Real Bayless

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Toronto, where an explosive guard is demanding minutes.

RAPTORS
Position: Shooting guard
The Raptors have played eight games without Andrea Bargnani (calf) this season. They are 1-7 in those contests, with the one win coming in Jerryd Bayless’ first start of the season.

Coach Dwane Casey isn’t giving Bayless all the credit, but it’s surely not a coincidence. He has to see that the 2008 No. 11 overall pick is a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. In 14 starts a year ago, Bayless averaged 18.1 points, 6.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.2 treys and 1.0 steals. We can safely project top-50 fantasy status for Bayless anytime he’s getting 32-35 minutes per game.  

No one knows right now if Bayless will continue to start. Here’s what we do know:

* DeMar DeRozan has started 168 career NBA games. One of those (Sunday night) has come at small forward, and the other 167 were at shooting guard.

* Leandro Barbosa (ankle) was out Sunday. He expects to play Tuesday.

* It’s going to be really tough to play Bayless and Jose Calderon together against big shooting guards like Joe Johnson (Tuesday) and Dwyane Wade (Sunday).

* Bargnani says this calf strain is worse than the one that cost him six games earlier this month. He’s unlikely to play for at least a couple weeks.

* The Raptors are averaging 87.5 points per game, 28th in the NBA. They desperately need some punch.

* ESPN’s Marc Stein reported Friday that the Raptors are open to trading Calderon. That's nothing new, Calderon has been on the block for more than a year.

Add this all up and what we have is a must-add. Even if Bayless is coming off the bench for now, the Raptors need him for 25-plus minutes per night. An intermittent starting role based on matchups and a possible promotion over Calderon is very possible.  

BOBCATS
Position: Sixth man
With D.J. Augustin (foot) and Corey Maggette (hamstring) nowhere close, there are a lot of minutes and shots to go around. There’s also a desperate need for offense. Enter Reggie Williams, who is finally ready after offseason knee surgery. Coach Paul Silas sounds excited.

“He really understands the game,” Silas said. “He’ll really help our offense. How he passes, how he shoots. Two or three weeks from now I think he’s going to be unbelievable.”

In 104 career games with the Warriors, Williams averaged 10.6 points and 1.3 3-pointers per game in just 23.1 minutes. Even though Augustin, Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson aren’t going anywhere as starters, deep leaguers should have Williams on their radar.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward/shooting guard
Did anyone really think that Stephen Jackson in Milwaukee with Scott Skiles was ever going to work? Jackson has been suspended by the team, suspended by the league, took a DNP-CD on Monday night and is now predictably angry. He’s also shooting a career-low 36.7 percent from the field and averaging just 12.8 points per game.

"I ain't surprised. They know how I feel. It ain't no secret," Jackson said. "Everybody knows the situation. I'm going to cheer the team on and do what I've got to do. ... My situation is going to get better soon. But until then I'm going to support these guys and continue to collect my check.”

It sounds like Jackson expects to be dealt out of town, but the interesting part is that would not even clear up the swingman spots in Milwaukee. Shaun Livingston, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Mike Dunleavy, Beno Udrih and Ersan Ilyasova are all candidates for 20-25 minutes on any given night. All upside is capped, meaning we can safely ignore game-to-game outbursts.

BULLS
Position: Center
Perhaps all Joakim Noah needed was a little spark to set him off. He got that last week when Taj Gibson was sidelined by an ankle injury.

Gibson is back now. But in five games since that injury, Noah is averaging 34.2 minutes. And in the last three -- when Gibson has been active -- Noah is averaging 35.1 minutes. He’s earned that with renewed aggression and the kind of well-rounded game that makes him a top-40 kind of fantasy player. Over those last five games, Noah is getting 13.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.0 steals and shooting 64.1 percent from the field. Gross. It's smooth sailing now that the torch has been lit.

CAVS
Position: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker’s back issues have turned chronic. He aggravated the injury again on Sunday and at age 36, it’s not going away. Daniel Gibson would normally get the starting nod here and be staring at 32-35 minutes, but he can’t even turn his head right now due to a neck injury.

For the immediate future, former undrafted free agent Alonzo Gee projects as the likely starting shooting guard. In 34 starts last year, he averaged 8.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists and 0.4 treys. Move along.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

CELTICS
Position: Power forward
When Jermaine O’Neal missed a game back on Jan. 2, Greg Stiemsma got the nod. Over the last three games that O’Neal has missed, it’s been Brandon Bass in the starting lineup.

It’s a small yet key note here because O’Neal is hurt so often and the Celtics could be looking at major changes around the trade deadline. Bass’ per-36 minutes this season are: 14.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.9 blocks. And over the last 15 games, Bass is all the way up at 30.0 minutes per game. Coach Doc Rivers has no problems leaning on him.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
There was never going to be a real battle here. Kirk Hinrich is healthy now, but he’s 30 and has an expiring contract. Jeff Teague has led the team to a 15-6 start and is a part of the future at age 23. A Hinrich trade for a big man at the March 15 deadline is a reasonable expectation.  

The main reason Teague’s minutes have been limited over the last three games is his minor ankle sprain. After resting in Sunday’s blowout and getting an off day Monday, he should quickly ramp back up to 32-35 minutes per game.

HEAT
Position: Point guard
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have all been active together 11 times this year. In those games, Mario Chalmers is averaging just 6.7 shot attempts while playing 27.0 minutes per game.

It’s the same story down the line throughout the Heat’s lineup. When the Big 3 are all healthy, the minutes and shots are squeezed so tight that no one else can hang on. It’s not Norris Cole or Shane Battier or Mike Miller that makes Chalmers an unreliable play -- it’s the team he plays on.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Toronto, where an explosive guard is demanding minutes.

RAPTORS
Position: Shooting guard
The Raptors have played eight games without Andrea Bargnani (calf) this season. They are 1-7 in those contests, with the one win coming in Jerryd Bayless’ first start of the season.

Coach Dwane Casey isn’t giving Bayless all the credit, but it’s surely not a coincidence. He has to see that the 2008 No. 11 overall pick is a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. In 14 starts a year ago, Bayless averaged 18.1 points, 6.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.2 treys and 1.0 steals. We can safely project top-50 fantasy status for Bayless anytime he’s getting 32-35 minutes per game.  

No one knows right now if Bayless will continue to start. Here’s what we do know:

* DeMar DeRozan has started 168 career NBA games. One of those (Sunday night) has come at small forward, and the other 167 were at shooting guard.

* Leandro Barbosa (ankle) was out Sunday. He expects to play Tuesday.

* It’s going to be really tough to play Bayless and Jose Calderon together against big shooting guards like Joe Johnson (Tuesday) and Dwyane Wade (Sunday).

* Bargnani says this calf strain is worse than the one that cost him six games earlier this month. He’s unlikely to play for at least a couple weeks.

* The Raptors are averaging 87.5 points per game, 28th in the NBA. They desperately need some punch.

* ESPN’s Marc Stein reported Friday that the Raptors are open to trading Calderon. That's nothing new, Calderon has been on the block for more than a year.

Add this all up and what we have is a must-add. Even if Bayless is coming off the bench for now, the Raptors need him for 25-plus minutes per night. An intermittent starting role based on matchups and a possible promotion over Calderon is very possible.  

BOBCATS
Position: Sixth man
With D.J. Augustin (foot) and Corey Maggette (hamstring) nowhere close, there are a lot of minutes and shots to go around. There’s also a desperate need for offense. Enter Reggie Williams, who is finally ready after offseason knee surgery. Coach Paul Silas sounds excited.

“He really understands the game,” Silas said. “He’ll really help our offense. How he passes, how he shoots. Two or three weeks from now I think he’s going to be unbelievable.”

In 104 career games with the Warriors, Williams averaged 10.6 points and 1.3 3-pointers per game in just 23.1 minutes. Even though Augustin, Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson aren’t going anywhere as starters, deep leaguers should have Williams on their radar.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward/shooting guard
Did anyone really think that Stephen Jackson in Milwaukee with Scott Skiles was ever going to work? Jackson has been suspended by the team, suspended by the league, took a DNP-CD on Monday night and is now predictably angry. He’s also shooting a career-low 36.7 percent from the field and averaging just 12.8 points per game.

"I ain't surprised. They know how I feel. It ain't no secret," Jackson said. "Everybody knows the situation. I'm going to cheer the team on and do what I've got to do. ... My situation is going to get better soon. But until then I'm going to support these guys and continue to collect my check.”

It sounds like Jackson expects to be dealt out of town, but the interesting part is that would not even clear up the swingman spots in Milwaukee. Shaun Livingston, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Mike Dunleavy, Beno Udrih and Ersan Ilyasova are all candidates for 20-25 minutes on any given night. All upside is capped, meaning we can safely ignore game-to-game outbursts.

BULLS
Position: Center
Perhaps all Joakim Noah needed was a little spark to set him off. He got that last week when Taj Gibson was sidelined by an ankle injury.

Gibson is back now. But in five games since that injury, Noah is averaging 34.2 minutes. And in the last three -- when Gibson has been active -- Noah is averaging 35.1 minutes. He’s earned that with renewed aggression and the kind of well-rounded game that makes him a top-40 kind of fantasy player. Over those last five games, Noah is getting 13.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.0 steals and shooting 64.1 percent from the field. Gross. It's smooth sailing now that the torch has been lit.

CAVS
Position: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker’s back issues have turned chronic. He aggravated the injury again on Sunday and at age 36, it’s not going away. Daniel Gibson would normally get the starting nod here and be staring at 32-35 minutes, but he can’t even turn his head right now due to a neck injury.

For the immediate future, former undrafted free agent Alonzo Gee projects as the likely starting shooting guard. In 34 starts last year, he averaged 8.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists and 0.4 treys. Move along.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

CELTICS
Position: Power forward
When Jermaine O’Neal missed a game back on Jan. 2, Greg Stiemsma got the nod. Over the last three games that O’Neal has missed, it’s been Brandon Bass in the starting lineup.

It’s a small yet key note here because O’Neal is hurt so often and the Celtics could be looking at major changes around the trade deadline. Bass’ per-36 minutes this season are: 14.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.9 blocks. And over the last 15 games, Bass is all the way up at 30.0 minutes per game. Coach Doc Rivers has no problems leaning on him.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
There was never going to be a real battle here. Kirk Hinrich is healthy now, but he’s 30 and has an expiring contract. Jeff Teague has led the team to a 15-6 start and is a part of the future at age 23. A Hinrich trade for a big man at the March 15 deadline is a reasonable expectation.  

The main reason Teague’s minutes have been limited over the last three games is his minor ankle sprain. After resting in Sunday’s blowout and getting an off day Monday, he should quickly ramp back up to 32-35 minutes per game.

HEAT
Position: Point guard
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have all been active together 11 times this year. In those games, Mario Chalmers is averaging just 6.7 shot attempts while playing 27.0 minutes per game.

It’s the same story down the line throughout the Heat’s lineup. When the Big 3 are all healthy, the minutes and shots are squeezed so tight that no one else can hang on. It’s not Norris Cole or Shane Battier or Mike Miller that makes Chalmers an unreliable play -- it’s the team he plays on.



KNICKS
Position: Point guard
Iman Shumpert is taking a lot of the blame for the Knicks’ offensive woes. The wildly-athletic rookie has been removed as the starting point guard and coach Mike D’Antoni sounds serious about it.

“He’s learning the league. We’re learning where to play him,” D’Antoni said. “The 1 spot is not a natural one. It’s too much.”

That puts Toney Douglas back in the starting five, at least until Baron Davis (back) is ready a week or two from now. We can expect 25-30 minutes for Douglas, but the problem is his shot selection and lack of playmaking ability. He’s shooting 32.3 percent on the year and is averaging 2.6 assists as a point guard. Consider Douglas a mere 3-point specialist and Shumpert waiver-wire material in most formats.

MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
When the Magic decided to bring back Jason Richardson in free agency, I was confused. They had a homegrown talent ready to go at shooting guard, J-Rich is 31 and he has a history of knee issues. Now they are likely regretting that four-year, $25 million deal.

Richardson is shooting 41.4 percent from the field and averaging just 9.9 points in 28.3 minutes per game. He had to sit out on Monday due to his sore knee on a back-to-back. Meanwhile, J.J. Redick is shooting 42.4 percent from the field and averaging 11.4 points in 26.3 minutes.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that Redick is the better player right now, period. There’s enough warning flags with J-Rich to project 27-30 minutes per game for Redick the rest of the way. He may not officially win the starting job, but Richardson’s missed games and lack of in-game production will be enough for Redick to sustain solid low-end fantasy value.

NETS
Position: Shooting guard
When healthy, MarShon Brooks has proven to be a starting-caliber NBA shooting guard as a rookie. The problem is he’s not healthy.

Achilles’ tendonitis is a serious injury because rupturing the tendon can ruin a career. Ask Elton Brand. And on Monday, it was revealed that Brooks has a broken toe. So the Nets are wisely going to exercise caution with their 23-year-old prospect.

"We want to try to keep this kid in a healthy place," coach Avery Johnson said. "We’re trying to figure out how we’re going to monitor his minutes, and maybe he’s not gonna play 48 or 38 minutes again this year. Maybe it’s 28."

The biggest beneficiary here is Anthony Morrow, who now has a serious chance to lead the league in 3-pointers made. As a starter this year, Morrow is averaging 31.6 minutes per game. That’s a fair projection going forward with Brooks, Damion James (out for season, foot) and DeShawn Stevenson (knee) all hurt.  

PISTONS
Position: Power forward
When Austin Daye can comfortably defend the opponents’ power forward, he gets major minutes. Over the last four games, Daye’s minutes have spiked to 30.5 per night off the bench because he faced the likes of Josh Smith, Thaddeus Young and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. He’s responded by averaging 14.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 3-pointers in his last five.

But against bigger teams, it’s Ben Wallace/Jonas Jerebko time. At 205 pounds, it’s impossible for coach Lawrence Frank to use Daye with the already small lineup of Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince. In the first 18 games of the year, Daye topped 20 minutes once. He is a matchup play with upside.

SIXERS
Position: Shooting guard
Only two players on the Sixers are guaranteed 30 minutes every single night: Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday. Every other position is based on game flow and feel from Coach of the Year Doug Collins.

For Jodie Meeks, game flow means making 3-pointers. And over the last few weeks, he’s been able to do just that. In the last 10 games, Meeks is playing 29.2 minutes per game and making 3.0 treys per night on 41.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He’s played 30 minutes or more five times in his last 11 games. Owners in need of a 3-point specialist should look no further.

WIZARDS
Position: Power forward
Perhaps Jan Vesely really did deserve to be the No. 6 overall pick in the draft. But I just don’t see it. And it doesn’t look like new head coach Randy Wittman does either. Vesely has started the last three games, but is averaging just 3.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.0 blocks and 2.0 assists in 23.3 minutes. That’s just unbelievably poor per-minute production.

So now that Andray Blatche (calf) is out 3-5 weeks, Wittman is in a tight spot. As a dead team, the Wizards need to get Vesely valuable minutes as a part of the young core. But it’s obvious that Trevor Booker is the far superior option if the team wants to win.

The answer will likely be a timeshare. While Vesely has gotten those 23.3 minutes over the last three, Booker has gotten 22.6. But note that Monday night, Booker got 26 while Vesely got 15. Unless the Flying Czech suddenly gets going, that’s the kind of split to expect.

* The Pacers are not listed as they are the only team in the East without any significant rotation questions. Their first five of Darren Collison, Paul George, Danny Granger, David West and Roy Hibbert have started every single game this season when healthy.