Isaiah Thomas 2.0

NUGGETS
Position: Wings
With Wilson Chandler not yet signed, Danilo Gallinari (ankle) at least two weeks away, Nene (calf) sidelined and Rudy Fernandez (back) dinged up, the Nuggets’ rotation is clean. Arron Afflalo and Corey Brewer are going to log heavy minutes as starters and Al Harrington is going to beast off the bench.

But once everyone gets healthy, only two guys will be safe. Gallo because he’s the franchise’s go-to guy on offense and Harrington because he can play the power forward spot. All the other slashing wings are mere short-term fantasy plays that will eventually trend back down below the 30-mark.

ROCKETS
Position: Shooting guard/center
Coach Kevin McHale is consistent about one thing: He doesn’t give a damn about the names on the back of the jersey.

No matter who you are, you better bring it every single night. There’s no leash whatsoever, even if you’re Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Sam Dalembert or Kevin Love (back in McHale’s Minnesota days). That’s going to lead to some heavy bumps in the road, some sitdowns between player/coach and some antsy fantasy owners.

The best thing owners can do is close their eyes and take solace that McHale recognizes Martin is his best scorer. That’s why Martin has played at least 34 minutes in four of the last six games. McHale rightfully doesn’t believe in Dalembert’s commitment/talent, so Sammy D has played 20 minutes or fewer in nine of the last 11. We have to have the stomach to sustain peaks and valleys here.

SPURS
Position: Sixth man
Yes, I know Manu Ginobili (oblique) is out two weeks and then will be eased in slowly off the bench upon his return. And yes, I’m still ignoring the three-headed replacement monster that is Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Gary Neal. Minutes there will simply depend on game flow.

What I’m not ignoring is the Red Rocket. That’s right, Matt Bonner has my full attention.

Tiago Splitter’s calf injury opens up a gaping hole for minutes in the frontcourt. Although Tim Duncan has played 37-plus minutes in two straight games, that’s something that coach Gregg Popovich hates to do. On most nights, Duncan will hover around 30, a slight boost from his season average of 28.1. Bonner and DeJuan Blair are Pop's only big-man options.

Bonner has played 28 minutes or more seven times this season. In those games, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 3-pointers made. For the next couple weeks, Bonner is going to get at least those 28 minutes, meaning owners in need of treys must take notice.

SUNS
Position: Power forward
We’ve talked plenty about how Channing Frye simply needed to get his shot going to earn consistent minutes. He’s done just that.

Frye shot 19.4 percent in four December games and thus played 20.0 minutes. He shot 38.6 percent in 16 January games and saw 21.9 minutes. But in 13 February outings, he’s shot 46.1 percent and played a healthy 27.5 minutes.

We know what kind of damage Frye can do with that kind of burn as a fantasy freak. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaging 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 3-pointers and 1.5 blocks. There are no NBA players averaging at least 2.0 3-pointers and 1.0 blocks on the year.

So where does that leave impressive rookie Markieff Morris? On the bench. As long as Frye has his shot going, Morris will be limited to a bench role. In those 13 February games when Frye has been hot, Morris is playing just 20.6 minutes per game. Owners stashing him will need to wait for the starter to go cold.

THUNDER
Position: Power forward
I understand all the angst over Serge Ibaka’s playing time. He’s a remarkable talent, combining all-time great shot-blocking ability with a feathery touch on the offensive end. Ibaka is also just 22 and part of a frontcourt that includes the extremely underrated Nick Collison and enforcer Kendrick Perkins.

Ibaka averaged 24.5 minutes per game in December, 26.3 in January and 30.4 so far in February. In other words, he’s trending toward more and more playing time. And most importantly, Ibaka has responded to the increased role with ridiculous play. Over the last 12 games, he’s averaging 9.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.8 blocks. Scary.

TIMBERWOLVES
Position: Sixth man
As long as beastly Nikola Pekovic’s ankle injury proves to be minor, this rotation is set. And that’s not good news for Michael Beasley.

Since Beasley started coming off the bench, on Jan. 27, the Wolves are 2-6 when he plays 25 minutes or more. They are 6-1 when he plays fewer than 25 minutes. Owners are kidding themselves if they don’t think coach Rick Adelman and the Wolves’ front office has noticed this. Beasley is just a stash while we await a possible trade at the deadline.

WARRIORS
Position: Small forward
Coach Mark Jackson has finally, and rightfully, run out of patience with Dorell Wright.

Last year’s fantasy superstar is averaging 27.3 minutes in his last 10 games and has topped the coveted 30-minute mark just once in the last 11. Brandon Rush is proving to be a better option when the Warriors need scoring and Dominic McGuire is the defensive specialist. Simply put, Wright’s talent level is not that high. There’s little reason to expect a midseason turnaround as he’s right around last year’s numbers in field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage and rebounding rate.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the East. Let’s kick this week off in SacTown, where a mini-me has taken over.

KINGS
Position: Point guard
Two weeks ago in this space, I mentioned that John Salmons was in trouble for two reasons: Tyreke Evans’ ability to play the small forward spot and Salmons' inept offensive ability. Since then, the Kings have turned those fears into fruition.

The Kings are 0-2 since inserting rookie Isaiah Thomas into the starting lineup at point guard, thus kicking Evans to the “three.” However, both losses have been narrow defeats and the offense has averaged 100.0 points per game. In the 29 other games, the Kings have averaged 92.5 points per game. You can be sure that coach Keith Smart has noticed the effect that Thomas has had on his offense.

“We're moving the ball very well and the point of attack has been a little more secure with him playing there. I needed a director on the floor and he's been that,” Smart said. “Two games of doing this, we've been close in both games and so the progress for him is very, very well for him and I'm proud of what he's doing. And he's given me what I needed, a lead guy on the floor to kind of direct and put people in the right spots but also be a vocal guy."

To me, that sounds like a guy willing to give a 5’9/185 second-round pick (Thomas) a long leash. Evans is not a real point guard and Salmons’ 36.1 shooting percentage is unacceptable. In his two starts, Thomas has averaged 18.0 points, 7.5 assists and 2.0 3-pointers while playing 33.1 minutes. There’s a lot of upside here.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

BLAZERS
Position: Guards
The Blazers have lost nine of their last 15 games, leading to major indigestion among fans, coaches and media over the rotation. Only one thing is clear: Nicolas Batum is one of the most talented players in the NBA.

That’s right, the 23-year-old Frenchman will be an All-Star one day very soon. And thanks to his recent promotion into the starting five, he’s going to be a fantasy All-Star right now.  Since replacing Wesley Matthews as the starting shooting guard five games ago, Batum is averaging 37.6 minutes. All he’s done with that time is get 21.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 3-pointers, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals. Guess how many guys are averaging at least two 3-pointers, one block and one steal on the season? Zero.

To top it off, he’s the Blazers’ best perimeter defender and one of the best young “stoppers” in the league. Now locked into 33-38 minutes, Batum has legit top-10 fantasy upside.

But all is not well in Portland. If the Blazers had any real backup behind Raymond Felton, he’d have been benched by now. It’s not just the 37.1 percent shooting that has Felton in the doghouse. It’s high-school kind of turnovers and a sudden inability to make plays via penetration.

That’s led Nate McMillan to try Jamal Crawford at the point for extended periods, an experiment that can‘t work. You can’t ask a gunner to change his stripes. So the most likely result here is Felton’s leash continuing to extend as long as it possibly can. He’s still getting 31.0 minutes per game over the last 11 simply because McMillan doesn’t have any other options.

CLIPPERS
Position: Center
DeAndre Jordan is a tremendous defensive talent. He’s also 23 years old and has a raw basketball IQ. That’s seems to be why coach Vinny Del Negro has turned to newly acquired veteran Kenyon Martin in crunch time of late, thus capping Jordan’s minutes.

In the first 22 games of the year, Jordan was averaging about 30.8 minutes per game. In the eight games since Martin has joined the scene, he’s at 23.7. It’s a drastic and striking decline, one that owners must take note of. Yes, Martin is an “old” 34 and there’s a chance he’ll run out of gas as the season moves along. But we still need to knock Jordan down a peg or two.

GRIZZLIES
Position: Power forward
It’s extremely difficult to explain what’s gotten into Marreese Speights over the last 12 days. It’s easy to explain what will happen in about two weeks: He’s going to the bench.

That’s because Zach Randolph (knee) remains on target to return for approximately the final 30 games of the season. So even though Speights has finally earned starter’s minutes with a renewed commitment to rebounding and shot selection, he’s only a short-term add. The ex-Sixers’ 31.3 minutes over the last eight games will drop to 15-20 once Z-Bo is up to speed.

HORNETS
Position: Point guard
Greivis Vasquez has proven that he can play point guard at the NBA level. In his eight starts, the Hornets are 3-5 despite having one of the worst rosters in the league.

The problem is that Jarrett Jack is also a very legit NBA point guard and has the respect of coach Monty Williams as a seven-year veteran. Once Jack is up to speed, he’ll likely reemerge as the starter. However, that doesn’t mean Vasquez’s value is shot.

Williams has shown a willingness to play the two together, thus sending bench-caliber gunner Marco Belinelli to the bench. On Monday night, Vasquez played 29 minutes, Jack played 30 and Belinelli saw just 22 despite starting. With Eric Gordon (knee) likely done for the year, Vasquez is a decent bet to hover around 25-29 minutes the rest of the way -- even if Jack sustains health.

JAZZ
Position: Point guard
We’ve talked plenty about Devin Harris’ drastic drop-off in play this season. Now that we’re 30 games into the year, there’s no reason to expect a turnaround.

So what we’re left with is a simple hot-hand, game-flow kind of platoon between Harris and veteran backup Earl Watson. Over the last 11 games, Harris is playing 25.5 minutes. Watson is at 22.5. Yes, that adds up to 48.0 minutes, also known as the length of an NBA game. Harris certainly has the talent edge, but he’s proven that random big games are just a mirage before he heads back into this timeshare.

LAKERS
Position: Small forward
Metta World Peace aka Ron has started 12 straight games at small forward. The Lakers are 8-4 in that span. Barring a much-needed roster addition, MWP projects to stay in that starting role. The problem is that he’s averaging 4.0 points and shooting 33.3 percent as a starter even though he’s playing 25.3 minutes. Again, we can safely ignore everyone on the Lakers except their “Big 3.”

MAVERICKS
Position: Point guard
The Mavs are not going to push Jason Kidd no matter what. Even though they were playing without Roddy Beaubois (personal), Delonte West (finger) and Jason Terry for much of the last week, Kidd is averaging a mere 26.6 minutes per night over the last seven games.

Coach Rick Carlisle is on the record saying he wants to limit Kidd to around 25 minutes per night. That seems unreasonable considering how much the other Mavs love playing with the future Hall of Famer, but Carlisle is close to sticking to that goal. Owners need to take the assists, steals and treys and not expect a lot of upside.



NUGGETS
Position: Wings
With Wilson Chandler not yet signed, Danilo Gallinari (ankle) at least two weeks away, Nene (calf) sidelined and Rudy Fernandez (back) dinged up, the Nuggets’ rotation is clean. Arron Afflalo and Corey Brewer are going to log heavy minutes as starters and Al Harrington is going to beast off the bench.

But once everyone gets healthy, only two guys will be safe. Gallo because he’s the franchise’s go-to guy on offense and Harrington because he can play the power forward spot. All the other slashing wings are mere short-term fantasy plays that will eventually trend back down below the 30-mark.

ROCKETS
Position: Shooting guard/center
Coach Kevin McHale is consistent about one thing: He doesn’t give a damn about the names on the back of the jersey.

No matter who you are, you better bring it every single night. There’s no leash whatsoever, even if you’re Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Sam Dalembert or Kevin Love (back in McHale’s Minnesota days). That’s going to lead to some heavy bumps in the road, some sitdowns between player/coach and some antsy fantasy owners.

The best thing owners can do is close their eyes and take solace that McHale recognizes Martin is his best scorer. That’s why Martin has played at least 34 minutes in four of the last six games. McHale rightfully doesn’t believe in Dalembert’s commitment/talent, so Sammy D has played 20 minutes or fewer in nine of the last 11. We have to have the stomach to sustain peaks and valleys here.

SPURS
Position: Sixth man
Yes, I know Manu Ginobili (oblique) is out two weeks and then will be eased in slowly off the bench upon his return. And yes, I’m still ignoring the three-headed replacement monster that is Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Gary Neal. Minutes there will simply depend on game flow.

What I’m not ignoring is the Red Rocket. That’s right, Matt Bonner has my full attention.

Tiago Splitter’s calf injury opens up a gaping hole for minutes in the frontcourt. Although Tim Duncan has played 37-plus minutes in two straight games, that’s something that coach Gregg Popovich hates to do. On most nights, Duncan will hover around 30, a slight boost from his season average of 28.1. Bonner and DeJuan Blair are Pop's only big-man options.

Bonner has played 28 minutes or more seven times this season. In those games, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 3-pointers made. For the next couple weeks, Bonner is going to get at least those 28 minutes, meaning owners in need of treys must take notice.

SUNS
Position: Power forward
We’ve talked plenty about how Channing Frye simply needed to get his shot going to earn consistent minutes. He’s done just that.

Frye shot 19.4 percent in four December games and thus played 20.0 minutes. He shot 38.6 percent in 16 January games and saw 21.9 minutes. But in 13 February outings, he’s shot 46.1 percent and played a healthy 27.5 minutes.

We know what kind of damage Frye can do with that kind of burn as a fantasy freak. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaging 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 3-pointers and 1.5 blocks. There are no NBA players averaging at least 2.0 3-pointers and 1.0 blocks on the year.

So where does that leave impressive rookie Markieff Morris? On the bench. As long as Frye has his shot going, Morris will be limited to a bench role. In those 13 February games when Frye has been hot, Morris is playing just 20.6 minutes per game. Owners stashing him will need to wait for the starter to go cold.

THUNDER
Position: Power forward
I understand all the angst over Serge Ibaka’s playing time. He’s a remarkable talent, combining all-time great shot-blocking ability with a feathery touch on the offensive end. Ibaka is also just 22 and part of a frontcourt that includes the extremely underrated Nick Collison and enforcer Kendrick Perkins.

Ibaka averaged 24.5 minutes per game in December, 26.3 in January and 30.4 so far in February. In other words, he’s trending toward more and more playing time. And most importantly, Ibaka has responded to the increased role with ridiculous play. Over the last 12 games, he’s averaging 9.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.8 blocks. Scary.

TIMBERWOLVES
Position: Sixth man
As long as beastly Nikola Pekovic’s ankle injury proves to be minor, this rotation is set. And that’s not good news for Michael Beasley.

Since Beasley started coming off the bench, on Jan. 27, the Wolves are 2-6 when he plays 25 minutes or more. They are 6-1 when he plays fewer than 25 minutes. Owners are kidding themselves if they don’t think coach Rick Adelman and the Wolves’ front office has noticed this. Beasley is just a stash while we await a possible trade at the deadline.

WARRIORS
Position: Small forward
Coach Mark Jackson has finally, and rightfully, run out of patience with Dorell Wright.

Last year’s fantasy superstar is averaging 27.3 minutes in his last 10 games and has topped the coveted 30-minute mark just once in the last 11. Brandon Rush is proving to be a better option when the Warriors need scoring and Dominic McGuire is the defensive specialist. Simply put, Wright’s talent level is not that high. There’s little reason to expect a midseason turnaround as he’s right around last year’s numbers in field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage and rebounding rate.