On the Defensive

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Toronto, where a defensive stopper is earning trust.

RAPTORS
Position: Small forward
The eventual return of Andrea Bargnani (calf) is going to really cramp things for a lot of people here. Bargnani was emerging as one of the better players in the league and will push for 35-37 minutes once 100 percent.

However, James Johnson is one player that should be safe. Since getting promoted into the starting five on Jan. 18, Johnson has started 19 straight games. During two of those games, Bargnani was active -- yet Johnson still played 36.9 minutes per night.

Coach Dwane Casey loves defense, loves guys that work hard and therefore loves Johnson. He recently said Johnson was “close” to becoming a part of his core.

“He’s getting there. He has developed more trust,” Casey said. “The first part of the year he was trying to discover America with the ball, but he has done a much better job of simplifying his game and playing much more under control.”

Over those last 19 games, Johnson is playing 27.1 minutes. That’s a sustainable number, and so are the 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals that come with it.

BOBCATS
Position: Center
Am I crazy, or are the 4-28 Bobcats about to have a pretty talented roster now that they‘re healthy? D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, Boris Diaw and Bismack Biyombo are all very legit NBA players. A bench that includes Kemba Walker, Reggie Williams, Byron Mullens and Tyrus Thomas isn’t too shabby either.

When we see a depth chart that has 8-9 players with similar talent levels, it usually spells trouble. Since shifting to a reserve role three games ago, Walker has averaged 28.2 minutes per game. Now that Henderson (groin) is back, there’s an even tighter short-term ceiling on the explosive rookie. Williams was getting 31.0 minutes per game as a starter. He’s going to dip to 20. Thomas isn’t good at basketball and coach Paul Silas said as much, meaning he’ll need a trade to regain any upside.

The point is that the backcourt and wing spots are suddenly very crowded. The center spot, however, is wide open. Biyombo has started nine straight games, averaging 26.8 minutes during that span. The Bobcats’ sudden health won’t affect his position and Silas is on the record saying part of his job in the second half is to develop the young talent. No one needs game experience more than the ridiculously raw Biyombo. Those 2.3 blocks and 8.0 boards over the last nine are here to stay.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

BUCKS
Position: Power forward
The question marks here aren’t really question marks. Andrew Bogut (ankle) is out at least another month and probably more. Stephen Jackson is a strong bet to get traded by March 15 and is unusable in the meantime. Drew Gooden is going to play through his wrist injury a la Kobe Bryant and Luol Deng.

And slowly but surely, we’re getting one less question mark. Ersanity has taken over. First of all, we need to look at Ersan Ilyasova’s talent level. His per-36 extrapolations this season are 14.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers. That’s bordering on something special for the 24-year-old Turkish product, and coach Scott Skiles knows it.

Over the last 12 games, Ilyasova is earning 30.3 minutes per game. That’s the key with Skiles -- you have to earn it every night on the court, or you’re coming out. Ilyasova has the talent to sustain Skiles’ trust and thus hover around the 30-minute mark the rest of the way.

CAVALIERS
Position: Center
In the final game before the break, Semih Erden was benched due a lack of effort. Coach Byron Scott admitted that he was thinking about tweaking his starting five, leading to speculation that Tristan Thompson could finally get his break. Nope.

Erden will start at center in Tuesday’s game against the Celtics, but the situation will be evaluated on a game-to-game basis.

At some point before Anderson Varejao (wrist) returns, Scott is going to have to make a move. Even if Thompson doesn’t start, he’s earned significant burn. Check out these numbers for the No. 4 overall pick since Varejao went down: 6.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 21.6 minutes. Thompson can’t be trusted to top 20-24 minutes yet, but he’s a stash with upside while we wait for Erden and Ryan Hollins to officially faceplant.  

Bonus: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker (back) is healthy and back in the starting five, meaning we can safely move on from Daniel Gibson. In 16 games off the bench this year, Boobie is playing just 24.5 minutes and getting 7.1 points per night.

CELTICS
Position: Center
The Celtics went into the All-Star break at 15-17. No changes in terms of rotation or deadline moves can be ruled out.

The most obvious move is at center, where Chris Wilcox’s per-minute production has been far greater than Jermaine O’Neal’s. In four starts this year, Wilcox is averaging 11.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. O’Neal is at 5.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in his 24 starts.

Making a switch would allow O’Neal to preserve his body off the bench while also keeping Brandon Bass (knee, day-to-day) in a position to spell both big man spots for heavy minutes. If Wilcox (abductor, day-to-day) can get healthy, it’s a situation for deep leaguers to monitor. The Celtics can’t afford to stand pat, even if coach Doc Rivers loves to rely on declining veterans like O’Neal.

Update: O’Neal is visiting a wrist specialist in Boston Tuesday. This could be more than a simple sprain.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
The Hawks seem likely to make a trade at the March 15 deadline. They have Kirk Hinrich’s expiring contract and an allegedly disgruntled Marvin Williams to dangle. A big man should be the target -- Zaza Pachulia is logging 30.6 minutes per game over the last 12 and the Hawks are 4-8 over that span.

A Hinrich trade would certainly be a boost to Jeff Teague. In the first 18 games of the year, Teague averaged 35.0 minutes per game. Since Hinrich debuted, he’s topped 30 minutes in just three of 16 games.

Still, it’s not just the minutes that should have Teague owners concerned. He’s started at point guard and played 28.1 minutes over the last 12 games, yet is averaging just 2.8 assists during that span. It’s a sign that there isn’t special talent here.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Toronto, where a defensive stopper is earning trust.

RAPTORS
Position: Small forward
The eventual return of Andrea Bargnani (calf) is going to really cramp things for a lot of people here. Bargnani was emerging as one of the better players in the league and will push for 35-37 minutes once 100 percent.

However, James Johnson is one player that should be safe. Since getting promoted into the starting five on Jan. 18, Johnson has started 19 straight games. During two of those games, Bargnani was active -- yet Johnson still played 36.9 minutes per night.

Coach Dwane Casey loves defense, loves guys that work hard and therefore loves Johnson. He recently said Johnson was “close” to becoming a part of his core.

“He’s getting there. He has developed more trust,” Casey said. “The first part of the year he was trying to discover America with the ball, but he has done a much better job of simplifying his game and playing much more under control.”

Over those last 19 games, Johnson is playing 27.1 minutes. That’s a sustainable number, and so are the 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals that come with it.

BOBCATS
Position: Center
Am I crazy, or are the 4-28 Bobcats about to have a pretty talented roster now that they‘re healthy? D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, Boris Diaw and Bismack Biyombo are all very legit NBA players. A bench that includes Kemba Walker, Reggie Williams, Byron Mullens and Tyrus Thomas isn’t too shabby either.

When we see a depth chart that has 8-9 players with similar talent levels, it usually spells trouble. Since shifting to a reserve role three games ago, Walker has averaged 28.2 minutes per game. Now that Henderson (groin) is back, there’s an even tighter short-term ceiling on the explosive rookie. Williams was getting 31.0 minutes per game as a starter. He’s going to dip to 20. Thomas isn’t good at basketball and coach Paul Silas said as much, meaning he’ll need a trade to regain any upside.

The point is that the backcourt and wing spots are suddenly very crowded. The center spot, however, is wide open. Biyombo has started nine straight games, averaging 26.8 minutes during that span. The Bobcats’ sudden health won’t affect his position and Silas is on the record saying part of his job in the second half is to develop the young talent. No one needs game experience more than the ridiculously raw Biyombo. Those 2.3 blocks and 8.0 boards over the last nine are here to stay.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

BUCKS
Position: Power forward
The question marks here aren’t really question marks. Andrew Bogut (ankle) is out at least another month and probably more. Stephen Jackson is a strong bet to get traded by March 15 and is unusable in the meantime. Drew Gooden is going to play through his wrist injury a la Kobe Bryant and Luol Deng.

And slowly but surely, we’re getting one less question mark. Ersanity has taken over. First of all, we need to look at Ersan Ilyasova’s talent level. His per-36 extrapolations this season are 14.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers. That’s bordering on something special for the 24-year-old Turkish product, and coach Scott Skiles knows it.

Over the last 12 games, Ilyasova is earning 30.3 minutes per game. That’s the key with Skiles -- you have to earn it every night on the court, or you’re coming out. Ilyasova has the talent to sustain Skiles’ trust and thus hover around the 30-minute mark the rest of the way.

CAVALIERS
Position: Center
In the final game before the break, Semih Erden was benched due a lack of effort. Coach Byron Scott admitted that he was thinking about tweaking his starting five, leading to speculation that Tristan Thompson could finally get his break. Nope.

Erden will start at center in Tuesday’s game against the Celtics, but the situation will be evaluated on a game-to-game basis.

At some point before Anderson Varejao (wrist) returns, Scott is going to have to make a move. Even if Thompson doesn’t start, he’s earned significant burn. Check out these numbers for the No. 4 overall pick since Varejao went down: 6.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 21.6 minutes. Thompson can’t be trusted to top 20-24 minutes yet, but he’s a stash with upside while we wait for Erden and Ryan Hollins to officially faceplant.  

Bonus: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker (back) is healthy and back in the starting five, meaning we can safely move on from Daniel Gibson. In 16 games off the bench this year, Boobie is playing just 24.5 minutes and getting 7.1 points per night.

CELTICS
Position: Center
The Celtics went into the All-Star break at 15-17. No changes in terms of rotation or deadline moves can be ruled out.

The most obvious move is at center, where Chris Wilcox’s per-minute production has been far greater than Jermaine O’Neal’s. In four starts this year, Wilcox is averaging 11.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. O’Neal is at 5.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in his 24 starts.

Making a switch would allow O’Neal to preserve his body off the bench while also keeping Brandon Bass (knee, day-to-day) in a position to spell both big man spots for heavy minutes. If Wilcox (abductor, day-to-day) can get healthy, it’s a situation for deep leaguers to monitor. The Celtics can’t afford to stand pat, even if coach Doc Rivers loves to rely on declining veterans like O’Neal.

Update: O’Neal is visiting a wrist specialist in Boston Tuesday. This could be more than a simple sprain.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
The Hawks seem likely to make a trade at the March 15 deadline. They have Kirk Hinrich’s expiring contract and an allegedly disgruntled Marvin Williams to dangle. A big man should be the target -- Zaza Pachulia is logging 30.6 minutes per game over the last 12 and the Hawks are 4-8 over that span.

A Hinrich trade would certainly be a boost to Jeff Teague. In the first 18 games of the year, Teague averaged 35.0 minutes per game. Since Hinrich debuted, he’s topped 30 minutes in just three of 16 games.

Still, it’s not just the minutes that should have Teague owners concerned. He’s started at point guard and played 28.1 minutes over the last 12 games, yet is averaging just 2.8 assists during that span. It’s a sign that there isn’t special talent here.



KNICKS
Position: Guards
In the three games since Carmelo Anthony came back from his groin injury, Jeremy Lin is averaging 34.3 minutes per game. In the previous seven without Anthony, Lin averaged 38.2 minutes.

It’s an extremely small sample size, but the four-minute decline is real. In order to keep Lin playing at a high level, he can’t be pushing 40 minutes nightly while running Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo, point-guard reliant offense. It’s also worth noting that Baron Davis is a below-average NBA player, but is getting 12.4 minutes in his first three games back.

As discussed here two weeks ago, look for Lin to settle in around 31-35 minutes nightly. If only the rest of the Knicks guards could be so lucky.

Now that Anthony is back and J.R. Smith is in town, this rotation is crazy-deep. If Steve Novak stays hot, he’ll get 15-18 minutes. Once healthy, Iman Shumpert (knee) needs 20 minutes thanks to his defensive abilities. Landy Fields remains locked in as the starter, while Toney Douglas will be a healthy scratch most nights. Only Smith is the fringe player worth betting on thanks to his annually impressive per-minute production.

MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
It’s really, really hard to explain why the Magic signed a 30-year-old (now 31) Jason Richardson to a four-year, $25 million contract in December.

In 27 starts this year, Richardson is averaging 12.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 28.5 minutes.
In nine starts this year, J.J. Redick is averaging 13.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 32.0 minutes.

The problem is that Richardson has stunted Redick’s growth. When J-Rich has been active this year, Redick is playing just 23.5 minutes per game. It’s only enough for him to be a strict handcuff or reserve in most formats.

NETS
Position: Small forward
It makes sense that the Nets have locked back in a now-healthy MarShon Brooks to a massive role as the starting shooting guard. He’s among the most impressive rookies in the game. What doesn’t make sense is their insistence on starting DeShawn Stevenson.

Stevenson has started 16 of the last 18 games that he’s appeared in. Here are his numbers in those 16 games: 3.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.1 3-pointers in 22.8 minutes. Anthony Morrow has started 18 games this year: 16.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.7 3-pointers in 32.7 minutes.

It’s unexplainable why Stevenson continues to start, but we can’t realistically expect a change. Complaining about Avery Johnson won’t help. All we can say is Morrow is playing 26.0 minutes per game off the bench in his last six. That’s the reality going forward.

PACERS
Position: Guards
Coach Frank Vogel loves to talk about how X guy has a chance to unseat Y guy. Chalk it up as good, solid coaching. Telling George Hill he has no shot to win a starting job wouldn’t be wise, just like telling Darren Collison he’s safe the rest of the season would be silly. Vogel likes to keep his players on edge.

Therefore, we can safely ignore all the talk about Hill coming in and stealing the starting job from Collison or Paul George. The Pacers have played 33 games this year. They’ve won 21 of them, with Collison and George serving as the starting backcourt every single time.

PISTONS
Position: Sixth man
The power forward spot has gone about how we expected over the last two weeks. Jonas Jerebko has played just 21.6 minutes off the bench over the last 10 games. Jason Maxiell is locked in next to Greg Monroe up front.

The backcourt situation has taken shape as well. Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey have started 19 straight games together, logging heavy minutes and producing. Over the last 11 games, the Pistons are actually 7-4. Ben Gordon hasn’t topped 28 minutes in any of those games and will likely need an injury to reach anything more than 21-25 minutes the rest of the way.

SIXERS
Position: Center
Nikola Vucevic can really play and Spencer Hawes (Achilles) is out at least two more weeks. Sounds simple, right?

Well, not so much. Coach Doug Collins doesn’t like to start two rookies together on the front line, so anytime Lavoy Allen starts Vucevic is a bench player. Also, Collins thinks Vucevic has good chemistry with the “night shift” aka second unit of Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Evan Turner. And finally, the Sixers’ organization as a whole has concerns over the rookie’s defense. The bottom line is that Vucevic does not project as a starter anytime soon.

That has led to a meager 18.8 minutes per night over the last 12 games for Vucevic, even though Hawes has appeared in just two of those. We can see Vucevic’s upside in his 8.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks during that span, but the trust isn’t there quite yet.

Perhaps that will change as the Sixers’ offense struggled to a brutal 83.2 points per game during their current five-game skid. Vucevic would certainly help the offense and is therefore someone to put on watch lists. For now, anywhere from 18-26 minutes based on matchups and game flow is all we can expect.

WIZARDS
Position: Power forward
Andray Blatche (calf) is expected back at some point in the next couple weeks. Does he deserve to get his starting job back from Trevor Booker? Definitely not. Will he get it back anyway? Probably.

Blatche is 25 years old and in the middle of a ridiculous $35 million contract. The Wizards are shopping him, but no one is going to take his cancerous attitude on. The only solution to try to squeeze out the sizable talent he has. Starting him is step one.

Although Blatche was brutal as a starter earlier this year en route to 11.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 38.3 percent shooting, there is upside here. He started 63 games last year, averaging 16.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 blocks and 44.6 percent shooting. There’s enough ceiling with Blatche as an eventual starter to stash him in most formats.  

* The Heat and Bulls are not listed as they are the only Eastern Conference teams without any true question marks in their rotations. Perhaps that’s why they’re a combined 54-15 on the season.