So here we are, Trade Deadline 2012, a far cry from last year but with a hint of Melo and a big helping of Dwight. The two big pieces of news that hit over the last 36 hours were the trade of Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut, et al, and then last night Dwight Howard shocked the NBA world by waffling more than Brett Favre and reportedly agreeing to stay in Orlando.
The next big domino to fall is going to be the Michael Beasley/Jamal Crawford nexus of trade possibilities, and from there the big question is how the NBA will react to the Howard decision. Will the Magic become buyers as a part of their pitch to keep Howard? What will the Nets do now that their trade to acquire Deron Williams last year appears to be falling apart at the seams?
Will the big pieces such as Pau Gasol, Josh Smith, Ray Allen, Shawn Marion, Tyreke Evans, Kevin Martin, Ramon Sessions, Chris Kaman, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Jose Calderon, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Luke Ridnour, Luis Scola, Samuel Dalembert, D.J Augustin, Dorell Wright, Drew Gooden, and Stephen Jackson find new homes?
Will Deron Williams be traded away as a rental now that he could be headed to Dallas in free agency?
Questions abound, so let's set the table and get ready for a wild day of sports. Joining the trade deadline madness are NCAA tourney games, NFL free agency, Peyton Manning talk, spring training for baseball and I'm told that there is some golf and tennis action on the slate, too. Keep our player news page locked and loaded throughout the day and keep hitting refresh.
And follow me on Twitter for all the trade deadline news in real time. Now here we go.
MICHAEL BEASLEY AND JAMAL CRAWFORD
This may be the trade that connects the most moving pieces, as the Lakers are very close to acquiring Michael Beasley, and they're also in the hunt for a point guard. Jamal Crawford reportedly has played his last game for the Blazers and a deal is coming this morning. Here's what we know.
The Wolves are going to end up with Crawford in almost every scenario, but the question is whether or not the Blazers are going to end up with Steve Blake, Luke Ridnour, or a Lakers first round pick for this upcoming year. They are also the team that is holding up the deal, which tells me they're trying to figure out what to do with their Raymond Felton problem. He has become the target for everybody's ire in Portland, and whatever the Blazers do, it's clear they'd like to move him but nothing has materialized. Surely there is a team out there willing to take a chance on Felton, but at what price is the appropriate question.
If Felton stays and Blake arrives, the two would likely play to a timeshare, but I get the sense this deal is the least favorite for the Blazers. My guess is that they'd really like to get Ridnour, who would see a decrease in fantasy value going away from Rick Adelman's cushy system. Felton, if still there, would likely take an immediate backseat role and lose all value.
The other immediate question is what Minnesota would do if they trade Ridnour. My immediate guess there is that they would try to swing a deal to acquire Ramon Sessions, who just left the land of Kahn, and that would mean big things for Sessions in fantasy leagues. There are other point guards available such as Jose Calderon, D.J. Augustin, and maybe they take back Felton, but Sessions stands out to me as a piece that could fit Minnesota's current plans. The trio of Sessions, Crawford, and J.J. Barea are versatile and could keep Adelman's offense fluid with motion.
If that bit of speculation doesn't work out, the Lakers, who also covet Sessions, might be more interested in facilitating a deal that lands them the Cleveland backup – sending Steve Blake to Portland or elsewhere, all while acquiring Beasley.
The Takeaways: Sessions looks like a must-stash character for the chance he plays in Minnesota, with L.A. being a place he could produce, as well. Beasley, while a bit banged up with a sore foot, is a fine stash for the chance he will be relied upon to score in L.A., but keep in mind that his value will be capped by all the weapons around him. Crawford will play the same role that he plays everywhere, which is good enough to be owned in 12-team leagues, as well. Ridnour is a borderline sell-high guy for the chance he gets moved to a less friendly place. Steve Blake is not a fantasy pickup in Portland unless news comes across that there is a solution for Felton. While talking about the Blazers, I'm holding each of their borderline guys in the hopes that a shake-up breaks them free – even Felton.
THE MAGIC AND THE NETS
Assuming the Dwight Howard opt-in waiver gets signed, then the Magic both preserved the integrity of their team and became potential buyers. First and foremost this protects the values of Hedo Turkoglu, Ryan Anderson, and Jameer Nelson. The question is whether or not they get back into the Michael Beasley hunt, which I haven't heard much about. The bait there was Jason Richardson, which would be good for J.J. Redick's value. Beasley, for what it's worth, would also fit for owners in Orlando – but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The other rumor that was interesting, and unlikely as of now, was Josh Smith who was also linked to the Beasley matrix.
Above all, we'll be watching to make sure the waiver gets signed, and until then the Magic are still talking with the usual suspects – the Nets, Lakers, and the Rockets. If the waiver doesn't get signed, look for all golly-gee-heck to break loose.
As for the Nets, their situation just got amazingly complex. Should they not be able to throw in a full court heave to get Howard, their pitch to Deron Williams just went behind his ear. He will be favored to land in Dallas next season for the time being, so it's possible they try to get splashy or even deal Williams as a rental. Right now the only talks that are concrete with the Nets surround a deal to get his friend C.J. Miles and Raja Bell from Utah in exchange for Anthony Morrow, a future pick, and possibly Johan Petro. Morrow's value will likely remain consistent across either scenario as a streaky 3-point shooter coming off the bench, while Miles would be an interesting piece in Jersey where DeShawn Stevenson currently starts.
The other issue would be whether or not they would still want Boris Diaw's $9 million expiring deal, which is going to come at a price for the teams acquiring it. If the answer is no, and because Mike D'Antoni is no longer around, the basketball answer to where he could land would be in San Antonio. But because he's viewed as an expiring contract first and basketball player second, he could theoretically go anywhere.
There are a handful of reports out of New Jersey that they will sit on their draft picks and build without making a splash, too, but we'll see.
The Takeaways: Jordan Farmar didn't look good last night and Deron Williams (calf) is targeting a return this weekend, but there's still enough fluidity here that Farmar should be owned through the deadline. C.J. Miles is a guy to watch in case he heads east. The band of Orlando fantasy assets is safe – for now – and J.J. Redick needs Jason Richardson to go to carry any value. Boris Diaw really needs a nice situation to hold fantasy value, and the Nets or Knicks could have provided that. Those options don't look so swell right now, so he's not a high priority target or target in general until his situation improves.
So here we are, Trade Deadline 2012, a far cry from last year but with a hint of Melo and a big helping of Dwight. The two big pieces of news that hit over the last 36 hours were the trade of Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut, et al, and then last night Dwight Howard shocked the NBA world by waffling more than Brett Favre and reportedly agreeing to stay in Orlando.
The next big domino to fall is going to be the Michael Beasley/Jamal Crawford nexus of trade possibilities, and from there the big question is how the NBA will react to the Howard decision. Will the Magic become buyers as a part of their pitch to keep Howard? What will the Nets do now that their trade to acquire Deron Williams last year appears to be falling apart at the seams?
Will the big pieces such as Pau Gasol, Josh Smith, Ray Allen, Shawn Marion, Tyreke Evans, Kevin Martin, Ramon Sessions, Chris Kaman, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Jose Calderon, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Luke Ridnour, Luis Scola, Samuel Dalembert, D.J Augustin, Dorell Wright, Drew Gooden, and Stephen Jackson find new homes?
Will Deron Williams be traded away as a rental now that he could be headed to Dallas in free agency?
Questions abound, so let's set the table and get ready for a wild day of sports. Joining the trade deadline madness are NCAA tourney games, NFL free agency, Peyton Manning talk, spring training for baseball and I'm told that there is some golf and tennis action on the slate, too. Keep our player news page locked and loaded throughout the day and keep hitting refresh.
And follow me on Twitter for all the trade deadline news in real time. Now here we go.
MICHAEL BEASLEY AND JAMAL CRAWFORD
This may be the trade that connects the most moving pieces, as the Lakers are very close to acquiring Michael Beasley, and they're also in the hunt for a point guard. Jamal Crawford reportedly has played his last game for the Blazers and a deal is coming this morning. Here's what we know.
The Wolves are going to end up with Crawford in almost every scenario, but the question is whether or not the Blazers are going to end up with Steve Blake, Luke Ridnour, or a Lakers first round pick for this upcoming year. They are also the team that is holding up the deal, which tells me they're trying to figure out what to do with their Raymond Felton problem. He has become the target for everybody's ire in Portland, and whatever the Blazers do, it's clear they'd like to move him but nothing has materialized. Surely there is a team out there willing to take a chance on Felton, but at what price is the appropriate question.
If Felton stays and Blake arrives, the two would likely play to a timeshare, but I get the sense this deal is the least favorite for the Blazers. My guess is that they'd really like to get Ridnour, who would see a decrease in fantasy value going away from Rick Adelman's cushy system. Felton, if still there, would likely take an immediate backseat role and lose all value.
The other immediate question is what Minnesota would do if they trade Ridnour. My immediate guess there is that they would try to swing a deal to acquire Ramon Sessions, who just left the land of Kahn, and that would mean big things for Sessions in fantasy leagues. There are other point guards available such as Jose Calderon, D.J. Augustin, and maybe they take back Felton, but Sessions stands out to me as a piece that could fit Minnesota's current plans. The trio of Sessions, Crawford, and J.J. Barea are versatile and could keep Adelman's offense fluid with motion.
If that bit of speculation doesn't work out, the Lakers, who also covet Sessions, might be more interested in facilitating a deal that lands them the Cleveland backup – sending Steve Blake to Portland or elsewhere, all while acquiring Beasley.
The Takeaways: Sessions looks like a must-stash character for the chance he plays in Minnesota, with L.A. being a place he could produce, as well. Beasley, while a bit banged up with a sore foot, is a fine stash for the chance he will be relied upon to score in L.A., but keep in mind that his value will be capped by all the weapons around him. Crawford will play the same role that he plays everywhere, which is good enough to be owned in 12-team leagues, as well. Ridnour is a borderline sell-high guy for the chance he gets moved to a less friendly place. Steve Blake is not a fantasy pickup in Portland unless news comes across that there is a solution for Felton. While talking about the Blazers, I'm holding each of their borderline guys in the hopes that a shake-up breaks them free – even Felton.
THE MAGIC AND THE NETS
Assuming the Dwight Howard opt-in waiver gets signed, then the Magic both preserved the integrity of their team and became potential buyers. First and foremost this protects the values of Hedo Turkoglu, Ryan Anderson, and Jameer Nelson. The question is whether or not they get back into the Michael Beasley hunt, which I haven't heard much about. The bait there was Jason Richardson, which would be good for J.J. Redick's value. Beasley, for what it's worth, would also fit for owners in Orlando – but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The other rumor that was interesting, and unlikely as of now, was Josh Smith who was also linked to the Beasley matrix.
Above all, we'll be watching to make sure the waiver gets signed, and until then the Magic are still talking with the usual suspects – the Nets, Lakers, and the Rockets. If the waiver doesn't get signed, look for all golly-gee-heck to break loose.
As for the Nets, their situation just got amazingly complex. Should they not be able to throw in a full court heave to get Howard, their pitch to Deron Williams just went behind his ear. He will be favored to land in Dallas next season for the time being, so it's possible they try to get splashy or even deal Williams as a rental. Right now the only talks that are concrete with the Nets surround a deal to get his friend C.J. Miles and Raja Bell from Utah in exchange for Anthony Morrow, a future pick, and possibly Johan Petro. Morrow's value will likely remain consistent across either scenario as a streaky 3-point shooter coming off the bench, while Miles would be an interesting piece in Jersey where DeShawn Stevenson currently starts.
The other issue would be whether or not they would still want Boris Diaw's $9 million expiring deal, which is going to come at a price for the teams acquiring it. If the answer is no, and because Mike D'Antoni is no longer around, the basketball answer to where he could land would be in San Antonio. But because he's viewed as an expiring contract first and basketball player second, he could theoretically go anywhere.
There are a handful of reports out of New Jersey that they will sit on their draft picks and build without making a splash, too, but we'll see.
The Takeaways: Jordan Farmar didn't look good last night and Deron Williams (calf) is targeting a return this weekend, but there's still enough fluidity here that Farmar should be owned through the deadline. C.J. Miles is a guy to watch in case he heads east. The band of Orlando fantasy assets is safe – for now – and J.J. Redick needs Jason Richardson to go to carry any value. Boris Diaw really needs a nice situation to hold fantasy value, and the Nets or Knicks could have provided that. Those options don't look so swell right now, so he's not a high priority target or target in general until his situation improves.
WHAT HAS PAU GASOL DONE FOR YOU?
Apparently, not much, as the 7-footer would be coveted by the entire league if you simply told executives that they could get their hands on a big man that could score, rebound, pass, and block shots. But what does he get after a few rings in L.A? Trade rumors. Always the butt of jokes about toughness, the Lakers would really like to get rid of him as they transition to an Andrew Bynum-centric organization. The two teams that appear to be in the mix are the Rockets and the Bulls, but the sticking points are that the Lakers want an elite PG and they don't want Carlos Boozer. Both teams will need to work hard to find a third and possibly fourth team with one big piece that could satisfy the Lakers' desires, and that just doesn't seem likely at this point. Minnesota was interested at one point and shares the AEG back-channel pipeline, but there's nothing other than long snuffed out smoke signals to grab onto there.
The Takeaway: Gasol would do more to shake up the playing board today than any impact on his own value, and the catch here is that the playing board needs to be shook up before Gasol has a chance to be moved. But if we're looking for fireworks today, this is the pin that needs to be pulled.
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A NASA METAPHOR
The Rockets have made a deal at nearly every deadline over the past six years and this year will be no different. Everybody must go! The only player that is safe is Kyle Lowry, and even he could go if the Rockets covet Pau Gasol enough and are holding out, though I offer that this is an unlikely outcome. The more likely outcome is that Kevin Martin, who is no fan of Kevin McHale or GM Daryl Morey, gets sent packing – but to where? And if the Rockets can't find a home for him, then Courtney Lee, he of the supposedly minor finger dislocation, will be the next guy on the block. Samuel Dalembert and Luis Scola were offered to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut, giving insight on how much they value a big man right now (and how much they don't like Dalembert). I've read reports that Chase Budinger, Goran Dragic, Terrence Williams, Jonny Flynn and Yao Ming's autograph are on the block.
The Takeaway: You want to put all of them on your watch list and pick the guy that's left standing. Patrick Patterson might end up with a low-end value role if Dalembert and/or Scola can get moved without returning a dominant big man such as Chris Kaman or Pau Gasol. Kevin Martin should be held and a move out of town could go either way, but one has to think he can't do much worse than he is in Houston. Lee needs some help and could find himself playing for any team in the hunt for a shooting guard, including the Wolves, Clippers, Bulls, and Pacers. None are as appealing for Lee as a scenario that sends Kev-Mart packing. Chandler Parsons hasn't been named in rumors, and his value could increase if the Rockets determine they can rely on him heavy going forward. If you were iffy on grabbing him watch to see if the Red Sea parts for him, and I'm talking in terms of touches and not minutes. The minutes are mostly there. Dalembert and Scola both have things pretty good, even though minutes are an issue for Dally, so they don't really stand to gain by the deadline.
EVERYTHING MUST GO!
The Hornets are trying to shed payroll, acquire young talent, and heck why not, some lottery picks, an All Star big man and all for one low monthly rate. Chris Kaman is the talk of the town right now, followed by the question of whether or not the Hornets can get anybody to bite on Emeka Okafor's $28 million over the next two years. Cleveland made an inquiry but the Cavs wanted a first rounder for taking on Okafor's big deal and that ended that. Okafor's knee is a total question mark and why a team that isn't contending would take that on is beyond me, but the Hornets are trying. As for Kaman, a lot of contending teams are taking the position of trying to let him get bought out by the Hornets, only to try to pick him up as a free agent. Kaman could also get extended by the Hornets, but most signs point to him leaving. The Celtics and Heat are teams are trying to pick him up as a free agent, while the Rockets and Pacers will be more likely to deal. Trevor Ariza's name has popped up, and if the Hornets owe you more than $5 million per year you're probably on the block.
The Takeaways: Kaman has been a sell-high guy for weeks, so hopefully you took care of that. Ariza is a sneaky sell-high guy right now while owners think the sky is the limit. Gustavo Ayon has been intensely invisible while in the spotlight, but that could change if Kaman isn't around attempting every shot known to man. Because we're not hearing anything about Jarrett Jack, all those looking at Greivis Vasquez can hold onto is hope that the Hornets go young and/or Jack's knee acts up.
NOT BEING TRADED
Or so they say. Steve Nash or the Suns would need a sweetheart deal for anything to happen. Rajon Rondo has been all but locked into the locker room in Boston. JaVale McGee told the Wizards he wants $14 million next season as a free agent, and video guys around the US are trying to figure out how to put that into his blooper reel. It'll take a big leap of faith for a team to take him on, even as a rental. Andray Blatche is about as untradeable as guys get, too.
The Mavs would have needed to move Shawn Marion to complete their master plan of getting Dwight Howard and Deron Williams, and with that plan scuttled, it's less likely that Marion gets moved today than it was 24 hours ago – which needless to say wasn't all that likely. The Nuggets went through hell last year at the trade deadline and appear to be standing pat. The Pistons would like to move some of their contracts, but there has been no smoke, and nobody is lining up to take on Tayshaun Prince's deal no matter how much he beat up on the Kings last night.
The Heat are trying to make plays in free agency, and not the trade market. Brandon Jennings is off the market by most reports, setting up the small guard backcourt. Good news, they all go to the land of the small guard backcourt in Oakland for the awkward game of the night. The Thunder aren't looking to make a move, which sounds about right.
ODDS AND ENDS
Josh Smith wanted out but talks have died down. He might have played too well for his own good, there. The Wizards are desperately trying to move just about everybody, though they'll drag their heels in a deal to send Nick Young to the Clippers. Young's value will take a hit in that case, while Jordan Crawford should be owned in most formats for both his current value and the chance he gets to operate by himself. The Clippers join the Bulls and Wolves as teams looking for a shooting guard, which means that C.J. Miles and Raja Bell are in play there, too.
J.J. Hickson is drawing interest in Boston, but is a longshot for fantasy value. Tyreke Evans drew interest from the Warriors, and I'm told that Evans is not untradeable. That might explain his frustrated play last night. Leandro Barbosa was cryptic when talking about his future the other night.
UPDATE: Barbosa was traded to the Pacers right as this went to press, and will struggle for fantasy value playing next to Darren Collison and George Hill. Both Collison and Hill become droppable for a hot free agent, though owners will want to weigh their options carefully. The Pacers were looking for help at center and the acquisition of Barbosa pulls them out of the running for Kaman, securing the value of Roy Hibbert and David West, for now.
Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin are two point guards that could fit among the PG needy teams, but aren't a sure bet to take starter's minutes wherever they land and thus are just guys to watch today (or in Augustin's case, hold). Ray Allen is the only Celtics piece that is drawing interest, but Danny Ainge likes to wheel and deal so we'll just watch to see what he does. Allen will hold his value wherever he plays for the most part. Stephen Jackson appears to be staying in Golden State, but stranger things have happened. Check my Dose from earlier today for that evaluation.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Shaun Livingston are on the block, which can only help the cause of starters Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, and Carlos Delfino. Maybe Scott Skiles has a girlfriend that likes fantasy basketball. Drew Gooden was reportedly on the block, and Ersan Ilyasova's name has popped up, too. The acquisition of Ekpe Udoh would support that one of those guys could go, with Gooden being the guy with the weighty contract and Ilyasova being the cheaper guy that could return value to the Bucks. They'd both take a hit to their fantasy value if moved, but the smoke has long died down, here. You may want to hold onto Udoh through the day if the wire looks bare.
Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby are two vets with relatively weighty deals that Portland almost certainly wants to see go with their season in the tank. There's not enough here for fantasy owners to grab onto in terms of swinging values. Jerry Colangelo likes to deal, and while there's not a lot of smoke around Jose Calderon the day is young. Jerryd Bayless should be owned in all formats for the chance Calderon gets dealt, hurt, or outplayed by the explosive young talent.