Healthy Hawes

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Philadelphia, where a versatile starter is regaining health. 

SIXERS
Position: Center
The Sixers exercised extreme caution with Spencer Hawes as he returned from an Achilles injury. He played in five-minute bursts at first, then six and then seven. On Sunday, he lasted eight minutes in the first quarter before coming out. And with three full days off following Tuesday’s game against the Cavs, the reset button is about to be hit. Starting Friday, coach Doug Collins should have free reign to use Hawes as he sees fit.

In Hawes’ first 14 games of the season, he played 27.6 minutes per night and the Sixers went 12-2. Now the Sixers are fighting for the Atlantic Division title and are desperate for playoff positioning. Expect Collins to try to squeeze as much as possible out of Hawes, making 27-30 minutes nightly a strong bet.

With those kinds of minutes, Hawes’ roto-friendly game is on the upswing in a big way. Remember that in those 14 games, Hawes averaged 10.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.5 blocks while shooting 56.8 percent from the field. He's in a true contract year and remains extremely motivated to finish out the season strong. There's significant upside here.

BOBCATS
Position: Center
Coach Paul Silas says that his starting center, Bismack Biyombo, is actually a natural power forward. He also says that his backup center, Byron Mullens, is also better suited to play power forward. That’s a problem for fantasy owners as Silas appears hesitant to play the duo together.  

Biyombo was not injured on Monday when he logged just 15 minutes. Simply put, he and starting power forward Tyrus Thomas got outplayed by Mullens and Derrick Brown.

Still, Biyombo owners shouldn’t be overly concerned. Mullens is a pure jump-shooter and jump-shooters of Mullen's caliber inevitably go cold. Prior to Monday, Biyombo had played at least 28 minutes in nine of his previous 10 games. That’s going to be the norm once Mullens comes back to earth, leaving Biyombo with his usual blocks and boards upside.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward
When the Bucks gave up Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson at the trade deadline, they lost two guys that weren’t even playing. They got back Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh, two guys that are playing. Clearly, the rotation was going to get squeezed.

The biggest losers were Tobias Harris, Shaun Livingston, Beno Udrih and Mike Dunleavy. But on Monday night, Dunleavy saw some light as Carlos Delfino went down with a groin injury. After the game, Delfino conceded that he was in substantial pain. And as we’ve seen with Derrick Rose, serious groin injuries can linger for weeks.

Coach Scott Skiles prefers Dunleavy as a reserve, but that doesn’t really matter. He once again has a clear path to playing time and a role as the team’s best perimeter shooter. Dunleavy also has ideal size for a small forward, which is important now that Monta Ellis is locking down the shooting guard spot. The 30 minutes Dunleavy logged on Monday night are sustainable for as long as Delfino is out.

BULLS
Position: Point guard
John Lucas has certainly put up some extremely impressive numbers while Derrick Rose (groin) has been sidelined. But make no mistake, this is C.J. Watson’s job.

Over the last five games, Watson is playing 33.0 minutes per night. Lucas is at 18.6 minutes during that span. There shouldn’t be any questions as to who the handcuff is here, even if Lucas gets hot every now than then.

CAVALIERS
Position: Center
At the 2011 draft combine, Tristan Thompson measured in at 6’7.5” without shoes and 227 pounds. That’s clearly not optimal size for a center. But with Anderson Varejao (wrist) still lacking a target date, Ryan Hollins dumped and Semih Erden inept, coach Byron Scott is rolling with the rookie at the pivot.

Scott says that he can get away with playing Thompson at center because of the dearth of true big men in the league. The coach certainly has a point. On Tuesday, Thompson will match up on Spencer Hawes. On Wednesday it’s Greg Monroe and on Friday it’s Drew Gooden.

Since finally cracking the starting lineup five games ago, Thompson is averaging a hefty 35.5 minutes per night. The production will be inconsistent as a 21-year-old raw prospect, but the minutes are safe until Varejao returns.

CELTICS
Position: First big off bench
The Celtics are in a position they’re not accustomed to. At 27-22, they’re tied atop the Atlantic Division and in a major fight for playoff positioning with just a month left. Therefore, the starting five is logging some absurdly heavy minutes despite their collective age.

Outside of those five, one sneaky play can be found. Thanks to the season-ending injuries of Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Wilcox, undrafted rookie Greg Stiemsma has solidified a role as the first big off the bench. Over the last 10 games, Stiemsma is averaging 2.5 blocks, 1.2 steals and 3.8 rebounds while playing just 18.1 minutes per night. If Kevin Garnett or Brandon Bass ever get hurt, even shallow-leaguers will have to take notice.

HAWKS
Position: Shooting guard
The Hawks surprisingly kept Kirk Hinrich and his expiring contract at the trading deadline. It was yet another sign that they see him as their starting shooting guard for the foreseeable future, thus making Marvin Williams a sixth man.

In Hinrich’s 15 starts this season, the Hawks are 10-5. In all other games, they are 20-15. Larry Drew’s team is currently on a four-game winning streak and he’s talked openly about how much he likes the three-guard starting unit.

Over the last 10 games, Hinrich is averaging 11.2 points, 3.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 3-pointers per game while playing 38.5 minutes. Those numbers are sustainable even though the minutes will come down now that Williams is healthy.

KNICKS
Position: Shooting guard/Small forward
Amare Stoudemire (back) could be done for the season. The guy was playing 33.2 minutes per night, so we’ve got a massive hole in the rotation here.

Coach Mike Woodson likes the idea of going small and it makes sense. Carmelo Anthony is 6’8/230 and extremely powerful. He can certainly guard power forwards like Ryan Anderson (Wednesday), Josh Smith (Friday) and Antawn Jamison (Saturday).

That leaves the shooting guard and small forward spots wide open for some combination of Iman Shumpert, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Steve Novak. On a night-to-night basis, we can generally expect a hot-hand situation here. Smith has the most upside thanks to his explosiveness while Shumpert’s defensive abilities give him the best chance at 30-plus minutes.  

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in Philadelphia, where a versatile starter is regaining health. 

SIXERS
Position: Center
The Sixers exercised extreme caution with Spencer Hawes as he returned from an Achilles injury. He played in five-minute bursts at first, then six and then seven. On Sunday, he lasted eight minutes in the first quarter before coming out. And with three full days off following Tuesday’s game against the Cavs, the reset button is about to be hit. Starting Friday, coach Doug Collins should have free reign to use Hawes as he sees fit.

In Hawes’ first 14 games of the season, he played 27.6 minutes per night and the Sixers went 12-2. Now the Sixers are fighting for the Atlantic Division title and are desperate for playoff positioning. Expect Collins to try to squeeze as much as possible out of Hawes, making 27-30 minutes nightly a strong bet.

With those kinds of minutes, Hawes’ roto-friendly game is on the upswing in a big way. Remember that in those 14 games, Hawes averaged 10.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.5 blocks while shooting 56.8 percent from the field. He's in a true contract year and remains extremely motivated to finish out the season strong. There's significant upside here.

BOBCATS
Position: Center
Coach Paul Silas says that his starting center, Bismack Biyombo, is actually a natural power forward. He also says that his backup center, Byron Mullens, is also better suited to play power forward. That’s a problem for fantasy owners as Silas appears hesitant to play the duo together.  

Biyombo was not injured on Monday when he logged just 15 minutes. Simply put, he and starting power forward Tyrus Thomas got outplayed by Mullens and Derrick Brown.

Still, Biyombo owners shouldn’t be overly concerned. Mullens is a pure jump-shooter and jump-shooters of Mullen's caliber inevitably go cold. Prior to Monday, Biyombo had played at least 28 minutes in nine of his previous 10 games. That’s going to be the norm once Mullens comes back to earth, leaving Biyombo with his usual blocks and boards upside.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward
When the Bucks gave up Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson at the trade deadline, they lost two guys that weren’t even playing. They got back Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh, two guys that are playing. Clearly, the rotation was going to get squeezed.

The biggest losers were Tobias Harris, Shaun Livingston, Beno Udrih and Mike Dunleavy. But on Monday night, Dunleavy saw some light as Carlos Delfino went down with a groin injury. After the game, Delfino conceded that he was in substantial pain. And as we’ve seen with Derrick Rose, serious groin injuries can linger for weeks.

Coach Scott Skiles prefers Dunleavy as a reserve, but that doesn’t really matter. He once again has a clear path to playing time and a role as the team’s best perimeter shooter. Dunleavy also has ideal size for a small forward, which is important now that Monta Ellis is locking down the shooting guard spot. The 30 minutes Dunleavy logged on Monday night are sustainable for as long as Delfino is out.

BULLS
Position: Point guard
John Lucas has certainly put up some extremely impressive numbers while Derrick Rose (groin) has been sidelined. But make no mistake, this is C.J. Watson’s job.

Over the last five games, Watson is playing 33.0 minutes per night. Lucas is at 18.6 minutes during that span. There shouldn’t be any questions as to who the handcuff is here, even if Lucas gets hot every now than then.

CAVALIERS
Position: Center
At the 2011 draft combine, Tristan Thompson measured in at 6’7.5” without shoes and 227 pounds. That’s clearly not optimal size for a center. But with Anderson Varejao (wrist) still lacking a target date, Ryan Hollins dumped and Semih Erden inept, coach Byron Scott is rolling with the rookie at the pivot.

Scott says that he can get away with playing Thompson at center because of the dearth of true big men in the league. The coach certainly has a point. On Tuesday, Thompson will match up on Spencer Hawes. On Wednesday it’s Greg Monroe and on Friday it’s Drew Gooden.

Since finally cracking the starting lineup five games ago, Thompson is averaging a hefty 35.5 minutes per night. The production will be inconsistent as a 21-year-old raw prospect, but the minutes are safe until Varejao returns.

CELTICS
Position: First big off bench
The Celtics are in a position they’re not accustomed to. At 27-22, they’re tied atop the Atlantic Division and in a major fight for playoff positioning with just a month left. Therefore, the starting five is logging some absurdly heavy minutes despite their collective age.

Outside of those five, one sneaky play can be found. Thanks to the season-ending injuries of Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Wilcox, undrafted rookie Greg Stiemsma has solidified a role as the first big off the bench. Over the last 10 games, Stiemsma is averaging 2.5 blocks, 1.2 steals and 3.8 rebounds while playing just 18.1 minutes per night. If Kevin Garnett or Brandon Bass ever get hurt, even shallow-leaguers will have to take notice.

HAWKS
Position: Shooting guard
The Hawks surprisingly kept Kirk Hinrich and his expiring contract at the trading deadline. It was yet another sign that they see him as their starting shooting guard for the foreseeable future, thus making Marvin Williams a sixth man.

In Hinrich’s 15 starts this season, the Hawks are 10-5. In all other games, they are 20-15. Larry Drew’s team is currently on a four-game winning streak and he’s talked openly about how much he likes the three-guard starting unit.

Over the last 10 games, Hinrich is averaging 11.2 points, 3.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 3-pointers per game while playing 38.5 minutes. Those numbers are sustainable even though the minutes will come down now that Williams is healthy.

KNICKS
Position: Shooting guard/Small forward
Amare Stoudemire (back) could be done for the season. The guy was playing 33.2 minutes per night, so we’ve got a massive hole in the rotation here.

Coach Mike Woodson likes the idea of going small and it makes sense. Carmelo Anthony is 6’8/230 and extremely powerful. He can certainly guard power forwards like Ryan Anderson (Wednesday), Josh Smith (Friday) and Antawn Jamison (Saturday).

That leaves the shooting guard and small forward spots wide open for some combination of Iman Shumpert, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Steve Novak. On a night-to-night basis, we can generally expect a hot-hand situation here. Smith has the most upside thanks to his explosiveness while Shumpert’s defensive abilities give him the best chance at 30-plus minutes.  



MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
Coach Stan Van Gundy was recently asked what was up with Jason Richardson.

“I think he’s healthy,” Van Gundy said. “He’s just playing very poorly.”

That attitude is reflected in Richardson’s minutes. Over the last five games, he’s averaging just 6.4 points on 33.3 percent shooting while playing a mere 26.2 minutes per night. During that same span, J.J. Redick is averaging 7.4 points on 41.2 percent shooting while playing 22.0 minutes.

Richardson will continue to start as the Magic are rolling along at 32-18. But the veteran certainly doesn’t have an extended leash to shoot his way out of slumps anymore. Van Gundy isn’t afraid to make this a value-killing timeshare.

NETS
Position: Sixth man
Even with Jordan Farmar (groin) out indefinitely, the wing rotation here is crowded. Despite a nasty shooting slump, MarShon Brooks needs significant burn as a big piece of the future core. Over the last 15 games, Brooks is playing 27.6 minutes per night even though he’s shooting 39.9 percent.

Additionally, Gerald Wallace’s arrival at the small forward spot and coach Avery Johnson’s insistence on using DeShawn Stevenson clutters things. Oh, and Anthony Morrow (shoulder) is expected back Wednesday.

Therefore, we can’t expect consistency out of D-League callup Gerald Green. Although he can certainly play and is still only 26 years old, Green has logged less than 18 minutes in two of his last five games. During that span, Green is averaging 10.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.4 3-pointers and 1.2 steals while playing 23.6 minutes. That’s a realistic expectation.

PACERS
Position: Point guard
As mentioned time and again in this space, Darren Collison is not going anywhere as the starting point guard. George Hill may have more raw talent, but Collison has started every game this season for a team that’s 29-19. Changing things with perhaps the most consistent rotation in the league with one month left in the season would make no sense.

As the starter, Collison gets the first chance to get the hot hand on a nightly basis. He also gets a chance to establish the hot hand at the outset of the third quarter nightly. Therefore, Hill’s minutes are going to be inconsistent. Over the last five games, he’s played anywhere from 15 to 28 minutes. Collison’s range was 24 to 35 during that span. Expect similar distribution going forward.

PISTONS
Position: Shooting guard
I was confused by all the excitement over Ben Gordon’s outburst last week. Everyone realized that only came because Rodney Stuckey (toe) was out, right?

In 18 starts this year, Gordon is averaging 16.1 points in 33.4 minutes per game. In 20 games off the bench, he’s averaging 8.8 points in 22.7 minutes per game. It’s really that simple. If/when Gordon gets his groin healthy, he’ll still need an injury to Stuckey or Brandon Knight to be a strong play.

RAPTORS
Position: Shooting guard
Before we get too excited about Gary Forbes’ hot streak, we need to be aware of the injury situation here. DeMar DeRozan (ankle) has missed two straight games and is day-to-day. Jerryd Bayless tried to play through his hip pointer Monday but aggravated and is now day-to-day as well. But when healthy, Forbes is really the third shooting guard. In 33 games off the bench this year, the former undrafted free agent is averaging just 11.3 minutes.

WIZARDS
Position: First big off bench
When Nene Hilario and Trevor Booker are healthy, this rotation is pretty set. But with Nene’s chronically sore back acting up, Booker dealing with plantar fasciitis and the Wizards at 11-38, we’re going to get some random DNPs up front.

Kevin Seraphin went 17th overall in the 2010 draft for a reason. He has soft hands at 6’9/278 and is still only 22 years old. In six starts this season, the fast-developing Frenchman is averaging 10.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and shooting 54.7 percent from the field. The kid can play. Deep-leaguers should be monitoring injury reports closely to see when Seraphin will be getting starts.

* The Heat are not listed as they are the only Eastern Conference team without any true question marks in their rotation.