Crunch-time categories

MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
Seemingly every week in this space, I’ve begged for coach Stan Van Gundy to give J.J. Redick a bigger opportunity. It took a facial fracture to Hedo Turkoglu, but it’s finally happening.

With Turkoglu done for the regular season, Van Gundy has wisely turned to a smaller lineup that features Redick at shooting guard and Jason Richardson at small forward. It doesn’t matter if Dwight Howard (back, immaturity) plays or not, Redick is a must-own because of his talent level.

In 14 starts this year, Redick has averaged 14.6 points and 2.5 3-pointers while playing 33.6 minutes. He is also shooting 94.1 percent from the free-throw line and gets there a reasonable 2.4 times per game. Those are bare minimum numbers the rest of the way.

PACERS
Position: Point guard
For now, Darren Collison’s groin injury does not sound overly serious. It’s not like Derrick Rose’s bleeding groin, it’s just simple soreness that dated back to last Friday.

So what we have here is one of the league’s premier handcuff situations instead of a long-term add. George Hill has starting-caliber NBA talent that he puts on display whenever given the opportunity. In 56 career starts, he’s averaged 14.8 points, 3.6 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.0 treys and 0.8 steals.

However, this doesn’t mean that we have a changing of the guard. Collison has started 56 games this season, guiding the Pacers to a 34-22 record in that span. He’s not losing his job.  

PISTONS
Position: Shooting guard
It’s pretty rare that a team as bad as the Pistons (21-36) has a stable rotation. But they do.

Brandon Knight has started 51 straight games at point guard. Tayshaun Prince has started 55 games at small forward. Greg Monroe has been the man in the middle for all 57. Jason Maxiell has started 34 straight.

The only question here is the health of Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon. When both are healthy, Stuckey starts and plays roughly 29-32 minutes. When Stuckey is out, Gordon starts and plays 32.8 minutes. As a sub, Gordon sees just 22.7 minutes. It’s really that simple. Coach Lawrence Frank is a fantasy owner’s dream.

RAPTORS
Position: Power forward
Andrea Bargnani has sustained three separate left calf injuries this season. With nine games left in the year and the Raptors in tank mode, I’d be surprised to see him again before the 2012-13 campaign.  

Seemingly, that opens up minutes for roto-friendly defensive stopper James Johnson. But coach Dwane Casey apparently has other ideas, as Johnson remains in the doghouse. Until that changes, he’s not a real fantasy option.

Instead, Casey has chosen to roll with former undrafted free agent Alan Anderson, who had been out of the league since 2006-07, as his starting small forward. And wildly inconsistent Amir Johnson is getting the nod at power forward.

Amir Johnson has started 36 games this season, but has managed just 8.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Anderson has seen 26.4 minutes in his four starts, but is getting just 9.5 points and 2.3 rebounds. It is what it is. Until Ed Davis or James Johnson earn their way into the starting five, I’m ignoring this frontcourt.

SIXERS
Position: Shooting guard
The Sixers are in a free-fall of epic proportions. Since starting the year as the league’s darlings at 20-9, they’ve gone 9-18. Stunningly, they’re in desperation mode as they try to hold off the Bucks for the final playoff spot in the East.

So it’s not a surprise that a frustrated Doug Collins has started to hint at lineup changes once again.

"If we can't get this going with this group, we're going to have to change,” he said. “My tendency was to try to keep it the same the whole season but we've got to start finding some rhythm. I don't know what I'm going to do, but I hope I don't have to do that.”

The only logical change to the starting lineup will be putting Evan Turner back on the bench. The Sixers are 7-11 with him as their starting shooting guard. They are 22-16 in all other contests. Over the last 10 games, Turner is a -90 in plus/minus. That’s by far the worst on the team, and it’s not a coincidence. Turner “is a point guard” as Collins said last month, and that just doesn’t fit on this team. Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala also have similar skill sets. Turner owners need to be watching this situation closely.

WIZARDS
Position: Power forward/center
The Wizards were leading the Bobcats by 20 points at halftime and 27 points after three quarters on Monday. It was a rare chance for coach Randy Wittman to get his overworked starters some rest, so don’t read too much into James Singleton’s 37 minutes.

Trevor Booker (foot) has had a setback and Nene Hilario (foot) isn’t going to rush it. The pecking order here is still impressive Kevin Seraphin, raw rookie Jan Vesely and then the newly-signed Singleton.  

* The Hawks are not listed as they are the only Eastern Conference team without any true question marks in their rotation.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the West. Let’s kick this week off in New Jersey, where one of the game‘s premier shooters is trending up.

NETS
Position: Swingman
The hamstring injury Gerald Wallace sustained on Sunday has the potential to really clear things up here. Coach Avery Johnson has already moved away from DeShawn Stevenson (11.8 minutes over his last five games) and Wallace has no incentive to rush back for the 21-37 Nets.

The elimination of those two veterans from the rotation leaves MarShon Brooks, Gerald Green and Anthony Morrow to gobble up the vast majority of swingman minutes. Like it or not, those are the kind of names that win fantasy championships.

That’s because a guy like Morrow has unique skills that can change categories in a short timespan. He started 18 games earlier this year, making 2.7 3-pointers per game and hitting 94.9 percent of his free throws on the way to 16.2 points per game. Note that on the season, only Ryan Anderson (2.9) has made more than 2.7 treys per game.

Additionally, Morrow was trending in the right way even before Wallace’s injury. As a reserve over the last five games, he’s logged 28.2 minutes per night and is shooting 47.3 percent from the field. Of course, he’s banged 13 3-pointers during that span.

With Wallace out and Green (oral surgery) suddenly questionable for Tuesday, Morrow’s arrow is pointing up the rest of the way. He's an ideal option for category hunters.

BOBCATS
Position: Power forward/point guard
Coach Paul Silas has been relatively true to his word about letting the young kids play. But injuries have certainly helped the cause in the backcourt.

D.J. Augustin’s knee continues to act up, Reggie Williams’ knee is getting worse instead of better and Corey Maggette is battling through Achilles’ tendon woes. In 21 starts this year, Kemba Walker is averaging 34.5 minutes per game.

Up front, Byron Mullens is earning his minutes. Coach Silas asked Mullens to play more defense and focus on rebounding. He didn’t ask him to suddenly start banging in the post and backing guys down for baby hooks. What we’ve seen is rapid in-season improvement.

Over the last six games, Mullens is averaging 17.5 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 32.6 minutes per night. He’s found a home as a “stretch four,” not as a center despite his 7’0/275 frame. There’s no competition for minutes there as Tyrus Thomas is in the doghouse and Edjuardo Najera (head) is likely done for the year.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward
Coach Scott Skiles has plenty of faith in Carlos Delfino. Even though Delfino had missed six straight games due to a groin injury, he immediately rejoined the starting five on Saturday. And even though Monta Ellis now forms an atrocious defensive backcourt with Brandon Jennings, Skiles isn’t handing defensive specialist Luc Richard Mbah a Moute extra burn to compensate. Against Kevin Durant and company Monday night, Delfino logged nearly 32 minutes.

So, as usual, what we have to do is wait for Delfino to get hot. When it happens, he’s a difference-maker in 3-pointers and steals while also an asset in rebounds and points. We can hold on here as long as Skiles can.

BULLS
Position: Shooting guard
The Bulls appear to finally be coming to the conclusion that a 34-year-old Richard Hamilton is not their savior. Even if he’s healthy.

Since coming back from a shoulder injury, Hamilton is averaging just 19.5 minutes per game. He’s been cleared to play more minutes, but coach Tom Thibodeau isn’t just going to hand them out. “Performance is part of it too,” Thibs said.

Hamilton is not earning his minutes and there’s not much reason to think he’ll suddenly start. On the season, he’s shooting a meager 43.8 percent while scoring just 10.7 points despite 24.8 minutes. Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson and Ronnie Brewer can all play the shooting guard spot. There’s not much upside in Hamilton for the Bulls or fantasy owners.

CAVALIERS
Position: Point guard/shooting guard
Kyire Irving (shoulder) is only going to come back this season if he’s 110 percent. We certainly can’t count on that. Therefore, the Donald Sloan/Lester Hudson party is going to rock on.

Let’s be clear here, though. Hudson is not going to start and the Cavs didn’t even extend him a season-long contract on Monday. Instead, they merely gave him a second 10-day deal. And as a bench player, we can’t expect consistent minutes. It certainly doesn’t help that Anthony Parker (sternum) is expected back in the starting five Tuesday night, thus limited shooting guard minutes.

Over the last five games, Hudson is at 27.0 minutes per night. He’ll struggle to sustain that the rest of the way, even if Kyrie Irving shuts it down.

Sloan, meanwhile, is another story. In his four starts, the former undrafted free agent out of Texas A&M has averaged an obscene 37.4 minutes per game. As the starting point guard, his role will be more consistent on a night-to-night basis.

CELTICS
Position: Shooting guard
The Celtics are 13-5 when Avery Bradley starts. In all other games, they are 19-19. Additionally, coach Doc Rivers claims that he’s been trying to figure out a way to bring Ray Allen off the bench for a while now.

“We only talked about it for two years as a staff, but we’ve never had anyone to step forward," Rivers said of moving Allen to the bench. "We’ve always wanted a stronger bench.”

That should be enough signs to tell us that Rivers is serious about leaving a future Hall of Famer in Allen as a reserve. However, it’s not a panic statement for owners.

Allen has come off the bench in three straight games. During that span, he’s averaging 30.5 minutes. Bradley is at 30.4 over the same span. There’s enough room for both to get the burn here in the Celtics’ thin rotations.

HEAT
Position: Center
Joel Anthony started 50 of the Heat’s first 51 games this season at center. But coach Erik Spoelstra apparently sees a need for slightly more offense, so newly-signed Ronny Turiaf has started the last four.

During those last four games, Anthony is at 9.1 minutes and Turiaf is at 18.7. It doesn’t look like much, but Turiaf has managed 1.8 blocks during that span. And for his 372-game career, he averages 1.4 blocks despite seeing just 17.8 minutes per night. Deep category hunters should be aware.

KNICKS
Position: Point guard/shooting guard
Baron Davis might be a little banged up, but that’s the point. He’s “only” 32, but he’s always nicked up and out of shape. Frankly, Davis is not that good at this point in his career.

Coach Mike Woodson has already said that he doesn’t want to play Davis more than 30 minutes in a night. But due to ineffectiveness, that number has dipped even lower. Over the last five games, Davis has played just 24.4 minutes, scoring 4.6 points to go with 4.2 assists. It’s the production of a bottom-five NBA point guard, which Davis is right now.

Therefore, we can expand Iman Shumpert’s role even further. We already know that Shumpert is locked in as the starting shooting guard in the Knicks’ small lineup. We know that he’s earned minutes by being a difference-maker on the defensive end for Woodson. And now, thanks to Davis’ ineffectiveness, we know that Shumpert can serve as the point guard in crunch time.

Over the last five games, Shumpert is playing 39.8 minutes. With that kind of burn, the 2.6 steals and 1.8 3-pointers are sustainable.



MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
Seemingly every week in this space, I’ve begged for coach Stan Van Gundy to give J.J. Redick a bigger opportunity. It took a facial fracture to Hedo Turkoglu, but it’s finally happening.

With Turkoglu done for the regular season, Van Gundy has wisely turned to a smaller lineup that features Redick at shooting guard and Jason Richardson at small forward. It doesn’t matter if Dwight Howard (back, immaturity) plays or not, Redick is a must-own because of his talent level.

In 14 starts this year, Redick has averaged 14.6 points and 2.5 3-pointers while playing 33.6 minutes. He is also shooting 94.1 percent from the free-throw line and gets there a reasonable 2.4 times per game. Those are bare minimum numbers the rest of the way.

PACERS
Position: Point guard
For now, Darren Collison’s groin injury does not sound overly serious. It’s not like Derrick Rose’s bleeding groin, it’s just simple soreness that dated back to last Friday.

So what we have here is one of the league’s premier handcuff situations instead of a long-term add. George Hill has starting-caliber NBA talent that he puts on display whenever given the opportunity. In 56 career starts, he’s averaged 14.8 points, 3.6 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.0 treys and 0.8 steals.

However, this doesn’t mean that we have a changing of the guard. Collison has started 56 games this season, guiding the Pacers to a 34-22 record in that span. He’s not losing his job.  

PISTONS
Position: Shooting guard
It’s pretty rare that a team as bad as the Pistons (21-36) has a stable rotation. But they do.

Brandon Knight has started 51 straight games at point guard. Tayshaun Prince has started 55 games at small forward. Greg Monroe has been the man in the middle for all 57. Jason Maxiell has started 34 straight.

The only question here is the health of Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon. When both are healthy, Stuckey starts and plays roughly 29-32 minutes. When Stuckey is out, Gordon starts and plays 32.8 minutes. As a sub, Gordon sees just 22.7 minutes. It’s really that simple. Coach Lawrence Frank is a fantasy owner’s dream.

RAPTORS
Position: Power forward
Andrea Bargnani has sustained three separate left calf injuries this season. With nine games left in the year and the Raptors in tank mode, I’d be surprised to see him again before the 2012-13 campaign.  

Seemingly, that opens up minutes for roto-friendly defensive stopper James Johnson. But coach Dwane Casey apparently has other ideas, as Johnson remains in the doghouse. Until that changes, he’s not a real fantasy option.

Instead, Casey has chosen to roll with former undrafted free agent Alan Anderson, who had been out of the league since 2006-07, as his starting small forward. And wildly inconsistent Amir Johnson is getting the nod at power forward.

Amir Johnson has started 36 games this season, but has managed just 8.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Anderson has seen 26.4 minutes in his four starts, but is getting just 9.5 points and 2.3 rebounds. It is what it is. Until Ed Davis or James Johnson earn their way into the starting five, I’m ignoring this frontcourt.

SIXERS
Position: Shooting guard
The Sixers are in a free-fall of epic proportions. Since starting the year as the league’s darlings at 20-9, they’ve gone 9-18. Stunningly, they’re in desperation mode as they try to hold off the Bucks for the final playoff spot in the East.

So it’s not a surprise that a frustrated Doug Collins has started to hint at lineup changes once again.

"If we can't get this going with this group, we're going to have to change,” he said. “My tendency was to try to keep it the same the whole season but we've got to start finding some rhythm. I don't know what I'm going to do, but I hope I don't have to do that.”

The only logical change to the starting lineup will be putting Evan Turner back on the bench. The Sixers are 7-11 with him as their starting shooting guard. They are 22-16 in all other contests. Over the last 10 games, Turner is a -90 in plus/minus. That’s by far the worst on the team, and it’s not a coincidence. Turner “is a point guard” as Collins said last month, and that just doesn’t fit on this team. Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala also have similar skill sets. Turner owners need to be watching this situation closely.

WIZARDS
Position: Power forward/center
The Wizards were leading the Bobcats by 20 points at halftime and 27 points after three quarters on Monday. It was a rare chance for coach Randy Wittman to get his overworked starters some rest, so don’t read too much into James Singleton’s 37 minutes.

Trevor Booker (foot) has had a setback and Nene Hilario (foot) isn’t going to rush it. The pecking order here is still impressive Kevin Seraphin, raw rookie Jan Vesely and then the newly-signed Singleton.  

* The Hawks are not listed as they are the only Eastern Conference team without any true question marks in their rotation.