So here we are, the final day. This has easily been the strangest season of hoops that I’ve covered, mostly because there wasn’t much distinction between this season and last season.
Hopefully some of you just turned a blind eye to last summer’s labor war, but for the die-hards in the bunch it wasn’t that simple. For an analyst, it was impossible. All of the trends you’d like to explore, the formulation of ideas that eventually draw Internet ink, they go on pause until the free agents start flying.
The labor dispute was eventually solved and after a three-week ramp-up in which I slept maybe 30 hours total, we were drafting teams and getting ready for Christmas Day.
And now here we are, the final day. If you’re reading this, perhaps you have some fantasy business to attend to tonight. I know I do. But before we get to that, thank you all for reading. I said it to the Season Pass subscribers the other day and I’ll say it here, too. You guys are by far the most-knowledgeable basketball readership on the Internet today. I look at what other writers deal with in the various social media platforms and I’m happy to report I barely get any of the crap that they get. The questions and comments I get are almost always insightful, and I’d take most of you into the war room over many of my contemporaries without batting an eye. You guys know basketball, because (shocker) you spend a lot of time getting down to the bottom of things, and that’s the way we like it around here.
We’ll have some season-end material in the next few days, and if you’re looking for a playoff league commissioner product you have to check out www.fantasypostseason.com. The usual suspects of the Rotoworld staff and Doctor A’s rock star coalition are doing battle there for Year 2, and from what I hear there is some cash-eesh on the line.
So now without further ado, let’s break down the last 13 games and put a banner in the rafters.
To follow me on Twitter during the playoffs and throughout the offseason, click here.
NEW JERSEY AT TORONTO
Nets Notes: Talk about a franchise in flux, they’re literally moving to Brooklyn. They’re also probably aware by now that Deron Williams isn’t buying a home in the BK.
Danger: Theoretically Deron Williams could play, but the percentage odds are in the single-digit range.
Looking Good: MarShon Brooks put up 18 points and a few other goodies the last time out, and that was with Gerald Wallace in the lineup. He’s a strong starting option tonight. Gerald Green has quieted down recently, but fits the profile of a guy that could go off tonight. He’s young and has a lot to prove to the rest of the NBA right now.
Anything Goes: Sundiata Gaines played just 12 minutes on Monday, with Armon Johnson outplaying him in 23 minutes. Gaines is a risky play with a good amount of upside after last week’s numbers. Jordan Williams will start and play, but has been more miss than hit lately. Wallace likes to play in meaningless games like this, so owners can be cautiously ‘hopeful’ that he will go. There has been no word that Kris Humphries will rest, but if you were an unrestricted free agent looking at a big payday would you want to go tonight? Anthony Morrow is an intriguing sleeper, if anything because the Nets may want him to end the year on a good note.
Raptors Notes: I can live with the Raptors’ brand of tanking, as they at least signed a bunch of 10-day guys to do some on-court scouting. The winner, and by winner I mean the loser of tonight’s game gets a tie with the Warriors for the seventh-worst record, assuming the Dubs can pull off a loss tonight.
Danger: Jose Calderon is uber-doubtful with his not-so-mysterious eye injury.
Looking Good: James Johnson is on a tear right now and he’ll enter next year on the not-so-secret sleepers list barring any crazy roster developments. Ben Uzoh looks good to play heavy minutes, with low-end numbers as his ceiling. DeMar DeRozan is inconsistent, but he’s a solid of a bet to play heavy minutes as one can expect at this time of year.
Anything Goes: Amir Johnson and Ed Davis have been trouble lately, but in particular Davis might have some upside in a one-game shot. Alan Anderson is worth a look if you need threes, though he didn’t hit one last time out. Those things even out. Linas Kleiza and Gary Forbes scored 15 points and two threes each on Monday, and Kleiza added eight boards, but DeRozan’s early ejection led to extra minutes and touches. They’re weak options on a 13-game night.
DALLAS AT ATLANTA
Mavs Notes: The Mavs can move up to No. 6 with a win and a Nuggets loss, but they’re resting guys and know they can beat Oklahoma City. I could see them going hard enough to keep the rust from accumulating, but backing off during the second half.
Danger: Jason Terry and Jason Kidd were both rested in the Mavs’ last game on Saturday, and Kidd’s name has already been floated around for rest tonight. Dirk Nowitzki said that he wanted to play, but he left some wiggle room to be ruled out by the coaching staff.
Looking Good: Roddy Beaubois is built for a situation like this. He put up 16 points with six boards, five assists, and two threes on Saturday, and has plenty of energy to spell the old guys. Delonte West scored 13 points with three boards and two assists in 31 minutes in that game, too, and qualifies as young when compared to Kidd, Terry, and Vince Carter. If we start to get reports that the frontcourt vets will sit out, then Brandan Wright will be in a good spot to produce.
Anything Goes: We haven’t heard anything about Carter, who has been hot lately, but he’ll be a tough guy to trust regardless given his age and mileage. All of the vets will be a risk, while guys like Dominique Jones (eight points, three boards, four assists, three steals, one block) and Ian Mahinmi (two points, six boards) could be thrust into heavy minute roles. Even with confirmation of heavy minutes, they’re still fliers at best.
Hawks Notes: With a win, the Hawks will hold home-court advantage over the Celtics, which is a pretty big deal for them in the impending slugfest. They’ll play all of their guys until the game has been decided.
Looking Good: There will be some risk that something goes awry and minutes get shaved, but Jeff Teague, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson should be in all lineups. Ivan Johnson (six points, seven boards, two blocks on Tuesday) played better than those stats suggest, and is a decent play even on a busy night. Marvin Williams’ owners can go into tonight expecting more-or-less what he has been giving them.
ORLANDO AT MEMPHIS
Magic Notes: The Magic clinched the No. 6 seed, putting all of their starters at risk for tonight’s game.
Danger: Glen Davis (knee, ankle) is almost certain to rest, and Jason Richardson tweaked his ankle during last night’s game. Jameer Nelson had a mild calf injury that isn’t really a problem, but it’s an excuse to sit, if an excuse is needed.
Looking Good: Until we get confirmation that certain starters will be out, nobody is looking good.
Anything Goes: Even if the starters are said to go, they’ll likely be on a minute-limit and be risky plays. The only thing they have going for them is a need to learn how to play off one another without Dwight Howard around, but rest is more important to them I’m guessing. If the starters all go down, then owners will want to key on Ish Smith at the point over Chris Duhon, and Earl Clark and Daniel Orton will be the guys down low. Clark has a knee injury that owners will want to check into. Quentin Richardson and Von Wafer are guys that would love to come in and jack a bunch of shots up. All are deep league plays only until there is clarification on roles, etc.
Grizzlies Notes: The Grizz get to play for the right to have home-court advantage against the Clippers, so you can bet they’ll play their starters until they feel the game is sufficiently in hand.
Looking Good: Rudy Gay and Mike Conley are your marquee plays, and Marc Gasol and O.J. Mayo are must-start players in my book, unless in the case of Mayo his categories don’t help you. Gasol’s knee situation is a bit scary, but his numbers have been worthwhile even in his limited role. Tony Allen should be good to go coming off his monster game on Monday with a franchise-record eight steals, eight boards, 13 points, and a block. Unless you don’t need steals, Allen is a must-start player in my book.
Anything Goes: The million dollar question for the Grizzlies heading into the playoffs is Zach Randolph. Z-Bo managed just three points on 1-of-5 shooting with five boards in 19 minutes on Monday, and hasn’t been anything near the force we saw during last year’s playoff run. For pure fantasy purposes, he’s a 50/50 proposition when gauging whether or not he’ll put up low-end numbers. He’ll have a hint of upside, of course. On the other side of that see-saw stands Marreese Speights, who went for 17 and 10 with two steals and a block in 31 minutes, and he’s a borderline play heading into tonight.
MIAMI AT WASHINGTON
Heat Notes: The Heat have no interest in playing their guys right now and are locked into the No. 2 seed.
Danger: The Big Three have been all-but ruled out since Monday, and Dwyane Wade has already been ruled out tonight.
Looking Good: Unless we hear that Mario Chalmers is going to be rested, I like him to improve on his current two-week baseline of crappy numbers. The Heat will need him to play like he did during last year’s playoffs, so I expect them to try to get him going. I’ll put Mike Miller here if you’re hunting threes, but the guy could literally implode into a cloud of dust on the court so he’s a risky play, nonetheless. In reality, it’s impossible to predict what a band of misfits is going to do. Just look at Tuesday’s game against the Celtics.
Anything Goes: Check out Dexter Pittman and Joel Anthony if you need blocks, Miller for threes, Udonis Haslem for rebounds, Shane Battier for threes, James Jones for threes and some boards, and if anything happens to Chalmers then struggling Norris Cole would have some upside. There’s not a lot to hold onto here.
Wizards Notes: Their late-season turnaround has been as much about getting low basketball IQs off the court than anything else. Nick Young and JaVale McGee are out, and Nene and a bunch of young guys with a lot to prove are in. Ironically, when you break up the breakfast club, they’ll all probably be better off. Young has yet to do anything in L.A., but Chris Paul will see to it that he does if he wants to stick around, and McGee has been taking steps forward under George Karl’s leadership. Now, the Wizards only have one chucker (Crawford), one clear leader (John Wall), and one key veteran in Nene. This addition by subtraction has allowed guys like Kevin Seraphin to show what they have, and even Jan Vesely has shown some life. They can end the season with a six-game winning streak with a win tonight, which would surely please the Wizards’ ticket sales department.
Danger: Trevor Booker (foot) is out, as expected, and Jordan Crawford (ankle) was a late scratch yesterday and is out tonight.
Looking Good: Wall has shown little sign of wear and tear this year, which is an upgrade over last year, and will likely be up to play in front of LeBron and Dwyane Wade, if they’re in attendance. Regardless, he’s beasting right now. Seraphin (12 and six, one steal, two blocks last night) and Nene (12 points, seven boards) have reached an equilibrium, and against the Heat’s scrubs they’re strong plays tonight. Just watch for any news that Nene won’t play, but so far it looks like he’s rearing to go.
Anything Goes: Vesely has averaged about a double-double in his last two games, and has the potential to go off in the steals and blocks category, though nothing about his game has ever been written in stone. He won’t be a preferred option on such a busy night, but has some risk-reward going for him. Cartier Martin (nine points, 4-of-9 FGs, 1-of-6 from deep) will likely start again for Jordan Crawford (ankle) and is a sneaky play if you’re hunting threes. James Singleton was producing at a low-end level as recently as about two weeks ago, and the absence of Crawford makes him a more palatable play. He had 10 points and five boards last night, and when he was hot he had a three-game stretch with five steals and five blocks.
So here we are, the final day. This has easily been the strangest season of hoops that I’ve covered, mostly because there wasn’t much distinction between this season and last season.
Hopefully some of you just turned a blind eye to last summer’s labor war, but for the die-hards in the bunch it wasn’t that simple. For an analyst, it was impossible. All of the trends you’d like to explore, the formulation of ideas that eventually draw Internet ink, they go on pause until the free agents start flying.
The labor dispute was eventually solved and after a three-week ramp-up in which I slept maybe 30 hours total, we were drafting teams and getting ready for Christmas Day.
And now here we are, the final day. If you’re reading this, perhaps you have some fantasy business to attend to tonight. I know I do. But before we get to that, thank you all for reading. I said it to the Season Pass subscribers the other day and I’ll say it here, too. You guys are by far the most-knowledgeable basketball readership on the Internet today. I look at what other writers deal with in the various social media platforms and I’m happy to report I barely get any of the crap that they get. The questions and comments I get are almost always insightful, and I’d take most of you into the war room over many of my contemporaries without batting an eye. You guys know basketball, because (shocker) you spend a lot of time getting down to the bottom of things, and that’s the way we like it around here.
We’ll have some season-end material in the next few days, and if you’re looking for a playoff league commissioner product you have to check out www.fantasypostseason.com. The usual suspects of the Rotoworld staff and Doctor A’s rock star coalition are doing battle there for Year 2, and from what I hear there is some cash-eesh on the line.
So now without further ado, let’s break down the last 13 games and put a banner in the rafters.
To follow me on Twitter during the playoffs and throughout the offseason, click here.
NEW JERSEY AT TORONTO
Nets Notes: Talk about a franchise in flux, they’re literally moving to Brooklyn. They’re also probably aware by now that Deron Williams isn’t buying a home in the BK.
Danger: Theoretically Deron Williams could play, but the percentage odds are in the single-digit range.
Looking Good: MarShon Brooks put up 18 points and a few other goodies the last time out, and that was with Gerald Wallace in the lineup. He’s a strong starting option tonight. Gerald Green has quieted down recently, but fits the profile of a guy that could go off tonight. He’s young and has a lot to prove to the rest of the NBA right now.
Anything Goes: Sundiata Gaines played just 12 minutes on Monday, with Armon Johnson outplaying him in 23 minutes. Gaines is a risky play with a good amount of upside after last week’s numbers. Jordan Williams will start and play, but has been more miss than hit lately. Wallace likes to play in meaningless games like this, so owners can be cautiously ‘hopeful’ that he will go. There has been no word that Kris Humphries will rest, but if you were an unrestricted free agent looking at a big payday would you want to go tonight? Anthony Morrow is an intriguing sleeper, if anything because the Nets may want him to end the year on a good note.
Raptors Notes: I can live with the Raptors’ brand of tanking, as they at least signed a bunch of 10-day guys to do some on-court scouting. The winner, and by winner I mean the loser of tonight’s game gets a tie with the Warriors for the seventh-worst record, assuming the Dubs can pull off a loss tonight.
Danger: Jose Calderon is uber-doubtful with his not-so-mysterious eye injury.
Looking Good: James Johnson is on a tear right now and he’ll enter next year on the not-so-secret sleepers list barring any crazy roster developments. Ben Uzoh looks good to play heavy minutes, with low-end numbers as his ceiling. DeMar DeRozan is inconsistent, but he’s a solid of a bet to play heavy minutes as one can expect at this time of year.
Anything Goes: Amir Johnson and Ed Davis have been trouble lately, but in particular Davis might have some upside in a one-game shot. Alan Anderson is worth a look if you need threes, though he didn’t hit one last time out. Those things even out. Linas Kleiza and Gary Forbes scored 15 points and two threes each on Monday, and Kleiza added eight boards, but DeRozan’s early ejection led to extra minutes and touches. They’re weak options on a 13-game night.
DALLAS AT ATLANTA
Mavs Notes: The Mavs can move up to No. 6 with a win and a Nuggets loss, but they’re resting guys and know they can beat Oklahoma City. I could see them going hard enough to keep the rust from accumulating, but backing off during the second half.
Danger: Jason Terry and Jason Kidd were both rested in the Mavs’ last game on Saturday, and Kidd’s name has already been floated around for rest tonight. Dirk Nowitzki said that he wanted to play, but he left some wiggle room to be ruled out by the coaching staff.
Looking Good: Roddy Beaubois is built for a situation like this. He put up 16 points with six boards, five assists, and two threes on Saturday, and has plenty of energy to spell the old guys. Delonte West scored 13 points with three boards and two assists in 31 minutes in that game, too, and qualifies as young when compared to Kidd, Terry, and Vince Carter. If we start to get reports that the frontcourt vets will sit out, then Brandan Wright will be in a good spot to produce.
Anything Goes: We haven’t heard anything about Carter, who has been hot lately, but he’ll be a tough guy to trust regardless given his age and mileage. All of the vets will be a risk, while guys like Dominique Jones (eight points, three boards, four assists, three steals, one block) and Ian Mahinmi (two points, six boards) could be thrust into heavy minute roles. Even with confirmation of heavy minutes, they’re still fliers at best.
Hawks Notes: With a win, the Hawks will hold home-court advantage over the Celtics, which is a pretty big deal for them in the impending slugfest. They’ll play all of their guys until the game has been decided.
Looking Good: There will be some risk that something goes awry and minutes get shaved, but Jeff Teague, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson should be in all lineups. Ivan Johnson (six points, seven boards, two blocks on Tuesday) played better than those stats suggest, and is a decent play even on a busy night. Marvin Williams’ owners can go into tonight expecting more-or-less what he has been giving them.
ORLANDO AT MEMPHIS
Magic Notes: The Magic clinched the No. 6 seed, putting all of their starters at risk for tonight’s game.
Danger: Glen Davis (knee, ankle) is almost certain to rest, and Jason Richardson tweaked his ankle during last night’s game. Jameer Nelson had a mild calf injury that isn’t really a problem, but it’s an excuse to sit, if an excuse is needed.
Looking Good: Until we get confirmation that certain starters will be out, nobody is looking good.
Anything Goes: Even if the starters are said to go, they’ll likely be on a minute-limit and be risky plays. The only thing they have going for them is a need to learn how to play off one another without Dwight Howard around, but rest is more important to them I’m guessing. If the starters all go down, then owners will want to key on Ish Smith at the point over Chris Duhon, and Earl Clark and Daniel Orton will be the guys down low. Clark has a knee injury that owners will want to check into. Quentin Richardson and Von Wafer are guys that would love to come in and jack a bunch of shots up. All are deep league plays only until there is clarification on roles, etc.
Grizzlies Notes: The Grizz get to play for the right to have home-court advantage against the Clippers, so you can bet they’ll play their starters until they feel the game is sufficiently in hand.
Looking Good: Rudy Gay and Mike Conley are your marquee plays, and Marc Gasol and O.J. Mayo are must-start players in my book, unless in the case of Mayo his categories don’t help you. Gasol’s knee situation is a bit scary, but his numbers have been worthwhile even in his limited role. Tony Allen should be good to go coming off his monster game on Monday with a franchise-record eight steals, eight boards, 13 points, and a block. Unless you don’t need steals, Allen is a must-start player in my book.
Anything Goes: The million dollar question for the Grizzlies heading into the playoffs is Zach Randolph. Z-Bo managed just three points on 1-of-5 shooting with five boards in 19 minutes on Monday, and hasn’t been anything near the force we saw during last year’s playoff run. For pure fantasy purposes, he’s a 50/50 proposition when gauging whether or not he’ll put up low-end numbers. He’ll have a hint of upside, of course. On the other side of that see-saw stands Marreese Speights, who went for 17 and 10 with two steals and a block in 31 minutes, and he’s a borderline play heading into tonight.
MIAMI AT WASHINGTON
Heat Notes: The Heat have no interest in playing their guys right now and are locked into the No. 2 seed.
Danger: The Big Three have been all-but ruled out since Monday, and Dwyane Wade has already been ruled out tonight.
Looking Good: Unless we hear that Mario Chalmers is going to be rested, I like him to improve on his current two-week baseline of crappy numbers. The Heat will need him to play like he did during last year’s playoffs, so I expect them to try to get him going. I’ll put Mike Miller here if you’re hunting threes, but the guy could literally implode into a cloud of dust on the court so he’s a risky play, nonetheless. In reality, it’s impossible to predict what a band of misfits is going to do. Just look at Tuesday’s game against the Celtics.
Anything Goes: Check out Dexter Pittman and Joel Anthony if you need blocks, Miller for threes, Udonis Haslem for rebounds, Shane Battier for threes, James Jones for threes and some boards, and if anything happens to Chalmers then struggling Norris Cole would have some upside. There’s not a lot to hold onto here.
Wizards Notes: Their late-season turnaround has been as much about getting low basketball IQs off the court than anything else. Nick Young and JaVale McGee are out, and Nene and a bunch of young guys with a lot to prove are in. Ironically, when you break up the breakfast club, they’ll all probably be better off. Young has yet to do anything in L.A., but Chris Paul will see to it that he does if he wants to stick around, and McGee has been taking steps forward under George Karl’s leadership. Now, the Wizards only have one chucker (Crawford), one clear leader (John Wall), and one key veteran in Nene. This addition by subtraction has allowed guys like Kevin Seraphin to show what they have, and even Jan Vesely has shown some life. They can end the season with a six-game winning streak with a win tonight, which would surely please the Wizards’ ticket sales department.
Danger: Trevor Booker (foot) is out, as expected, and Jordan Crawford (ankle) was a late scratch yesterday and is out tonight.
Looking Good: Wall has shown little sign of wear and tear this year, which is an upgrade over last year, and will likely be up to play in front of LeBron and Dwyane Wade, if they’re in attendance. Regardless, he’s beasting right now. Seraphin (12 and six, one steal, two blocks last night) and Nene (12 points, seven boards) have reached an equilibrium, and against the Heat’s scrubs they’re strong plays tonight. Just watch for any news that Nene won’t play, but so far it looks like he’s rearing to go.
Anything Goes: Vesely has averaged about a double-double in his last two games, and has the potential to go off in the steals and blocks category, though nothing about his game has ever been written in stone. He won’t be a preferred option on such a busy night, but has some risk-reward going for him. Cartier Martin (nine points, 4-of-9 FGs, 1-of-6 from deep) will likely start again for Jordan Crawford (ankle) and is a sneaky play if you’re hunting threes. James Singleton was producing at a low-end level as recently as about two weeks ago, and the absence of Crawford makes him a more palatable play. He had 10 points and five boards last night, and when he was hot he had a three-game stretch with five steals and five blocks.
PORTLAND AT UTAH
Blazers Notes: The Blazers have been in tank-mode for a while now, but their game tonight has no draft implications. Their most interesting issue is what is going on with Raymond Felton (Achilles), who decided that he would play and my gut tells me that he’s running off his own script. The Blazers have been trying to get a long look at both Nolan Smith and to a lesser degree, Jonny Flynn. We’ve seen some indication that they want to keep a veteran/scorer on the floor rather than going totally young, but that isn’t set in stone.
Danger: Nicolas Batum (quad/knee) is all but ruled out for tonight’s game, and it would be a miracle if he played.
Looking Good: Even with Felton playing, Nolan Smith put up 10 points, six rebounds, five assists, and a steal in 34 minutes on Monday. Now that was aided somewhat by Jamal Crawford’s unreported absence, but if we’re planning in the morning for tonight’s action I like the chances that one or both of Felton and Crawford does not play. J.J. Hickson should be locked and loaded into lineups for obvious reasons, and Luke Babbitt will have all the opportunities in the world to improve on his five-point, one-trey night on Monday.
Anything Goes: Felton is certainly worth owning until he is ruled out, as his chances of putting up low-end numbers are pretty good. As for Crawford, owners need a bona fide report that he will play heavy minutes before they can rely on him, in my opinion. On Monday, he was left as a game-time decision all the way through the tip and into the game, indicating that the Portland media didn’t even know his status. Hasheem Thabeet is worth a look if you’re desperate for blocks. Flynn scored nine points with three rebounds and a trey in his 18 minutes on Monday, and is worth a look in deeper formats if the veterans are announced to be out.
Jazz Notes: The Jazz clinched the No. 8 seed and have no chance of moving up.
Danger: All of the starters are in danger of sitting, though Gordon Hayward and DeMarre Carroll have young enough legs that they could still get run.
Looking Good: Hayward would be worth starting in fantasy if he starts the game, even if there’s risk of a minute-limit. Jamaal Tinsley would be a nice spot-start if Devin Harris gets rested, as we’ve seen him put up numbers in that role already this year. Derrick Favors, if I had to bet blind right now, will go for a double-double with a block or two, and Alec Burks might be let loose so he can get some confidence before the playoffs. In the case of Burks, he needs confirmation of playing time before he’ll even be a flier in standard-sized leagues.
Anything Goes: All of your older vets are risks if they play, though Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap would warrant consideration with the hope they pull off low-end lines. Josh Howard is an X-factor but I’m not sure he can handle a bunch of minutes. DeMarre Carroll would also be worth a look in deeper formats if guys get ruled out.
DENVER AT MINNESOTA
Nuggets Notes: The No. 6 Nuggets don’t appear to want the No. 2 Thunder, and the Thunder don’t want the No. 7 Mavs, but only the Nuggets will have a say in how that goes down. The Nuggets can hold the No. 6 seed with a win or Mavs loss, and George Karl said they were going to “go after it” tonight. Look for them to go full-bore until the game is decided.
Looking Good: The Nuggets’ key fantasy guys are mostly solid plays. Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo are must-start guys, while Danilo Gallinari needs to get back on track so he should be in most lineups, too. Gallo hit just 3-of-13 shots for 14 points with five boards and three assists last night, so everything is in place but his jumpshot. Kenneth Faried (13 points, 10 boards, one steal, one block) is doing his thing and needs to be in all lineups.
Anything Goes: Andre Miller was quiet last night with five points and six assists, and may start to see his minutes clipped a bit when in must-win territory. There’s a time and place to keep guys happy, and it’s not in the playoffs. Al Harrington (knee) played last night and that is a huge tell about the Nuggets’ approach heading into the playoffs, and he’ll be a moderately risky play after scoring 10 points with five boards, a block, and two threes in 23 minutes. If he says he will go, I’d probably roll with him in most cases. JaVale McGee has not been consistent, but with the chance guys get rested and the fact he’ll be needed against the Lakers – I like his upside. He’s risky in his wobbly-minute role, but the upside is there.
Wolves Notes: Minnesota has no draft standing at risk tonight, and after their three-day layoff it’s unclear what they’ll do tonight.
Danger: Nikola Pekovic’s owners should be on the lookout for reports about his ankles. Surgery is scheduled, but he has been playing through the ailment and improving over the past week or so.
Looking Good: I’d be remiss to write that J.J. Barea is definitely going to play and play a lot, but the three-day rest and lack of a real backup option are best-case scenarios for his owners. Unseasoned Malcolm Lee could conceivably get run, but he was a DNP-CD and I don’t think Rick Adelman wants to end the season with a train wreck. Anthony Randolph is a risk, but he had a big Sunday with 14 points, seven boards, and five blocks, and the Wolves would be wise to see if Adelman is the guy that can get through to him. Derrick Williams is a total risk as one look at his game log would tell you, but building confidence in the rookie is usually the route coaches will go. Veteran coaches like Adelman might use the opportunity to NOT give an inch, though, but the by-the-book analysis says the No. 2 overall pick will get minutes. I could easily list Williams (or Randolph) below.
Anything Goes: Any absence by Pekovic would open things up for the entire hybrid forward crew, so if that happens you’ll want to think about Anthony Tolliver and Mike Beasley. As for Beasley, he has been the most consistent among the bunch, but I wonder about him getting a ton of touches if the Wolves are looking to develop their future. Things can change, but I don’t see Beasley in Minnesota long-term as of now.
NEW ORLEANS AT HOUSTON
Hornets Notes: The Hornets have already cost themselves draft position with their win over the Warriors, and they still need a loss tonight to keep pace with the Kings and Cavs.
Danger: Jason Smith is questionable with an ankle injury.
Looking Good: Everybody that started on Tuesday with the exception of Lance Thomas looks good for use tonight, though if Jason Smith plays then Gustavo Ayon and Carl Landry take slight hits.
Anything Goes: Jerome Dyson is a long-shot flier play for deep leagues, but the kid is explosive and has a big game under his belt already. He logged 25 minutes on Tuesday, but only managed five points, three assists, and two steals.
Rockets Notes: The only good news for fantasy owners of Rockets players during their one-game week is that they might (might) go for revenge after the Hornets delivered them a playoff-crippling loss last week.
Danger: Chandler Parsons (shoulder) has been ruled out, and Marcus Camby (back) is not expected to play. Kyle Lowry (sports hernia) is out and Kevin Martin (shoulder) is probably out of town. Samuel Dalembert has been dealing with back issues of his own, and should be considered questionable.
Looking Good: Goran Dragic has just Earl Boykins behind him and has plenty of legs, so he should put up a monster game barring a negative report. Courtney Lee and Chase Budinger are both solid plays for owners hunting points and threes. If Dalembert goes, he’s a strong play for blocks but everything else is up in the air. Luis Scola, if active and starting, is a very strong bet for at least a low-end line. Patrick Patterson scored 14 points with seven boards, a steal, and a block in the Rockets’ last game, and he has a decent chance for a low-end line with the chance of a repeat performance.
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT
Sixers Notes: The Sixers are in rest mode despite having a shot at the No. 7 seed and a date with Miami, who they probably want nothing to do with after testing their mettle in last year’s playoffs. They will need to win with a Knicks loss tonight to get the No. 7 seed, and the Knicks are playing the Bobcats.
Danger: Jrue Holiday, Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young are already ruled out. There were reports yesterday that Lou Williams would play tonight after being rested last night, so Holiday can get his turn at a rest. I saw a report in the wee hours last night that included Williams in the ‘out’ list for tonight, but I’m wondering if that was a typographical error. If both point guards are out, then Evan Turner would literally run the point all night long, which doesn’t sound reasonable.
Looking Good: Evan Turner predictably went off for a career-high 29 points with 13 rebounds, six assists, two blocks, and a 3-pointer last night, and he’ll have another big night tonight unless Doug Collins senses he needs the rest after 40-plus minutes last night. That said, there’s no doubt that he’s a must-start player barring a negative report. Jodie Meeks is next up on the beneficiary list after 27 points, three treys, four boards, three assists, and two steals. He is also a must-start guy tonight.
Anything Goes: If Williams goes, he will almost certainly put up some low-end numbers even in limited minutes, and he has big-time upside if Collins runs him for 30-35 minutes. I see the former scenario before I see the latter. LaVoy Allen put some distance between he and Nikola Vucevic for fantasy attention after grabbing 12 boards with a steal and a block in 28 minutes. Vucevic had just four points, six boards, and a steal in 14 minutes. Rebounding is a big concern for Collins entering the playoffs, and my take is that he’ll try to ride Allen to another big night cleaning the glass. Spencer Hawes is a by-the-book rest candidate after back and Achilles’ injuries stalled his mini-breakout, but I get the sense that Collins owes Hawes some minutes and this is part of the payback. Hawes scored eight points on 3-of-13 shooting six boards, four assists, one steal, and two blocks in 28 minutes last night. Assuming there are no bad reports, he is a slightly above-average starting option heading into tonight.
Pistons Notes: They have no positioning to play for, so they’ll roll the ball out and there may or may not be some sentimental minutes given to Ben Wallace, who has yet to announce whether or not he’ll retire. It’s too bad they can’t give some sentimental minutes to declining Tayshaun Prince, who Joe Dumars chose to lock up for $22 million and three more years to go.
Danger: Unless you hear a report that states Rodney Stuckey (knee) feels great and is rearing to play 30-plus minutes, I don’t know how you can trot him out there.
Looking Good: Aside from obvious problems with his play, one of the main issues in Brandon Knight’s development has been the team’s unwillingness to let him run the squad. That’s what happens when you pair a rookie with multiple veterans like Prince, Stuckey, and Ben Gordon and that’s before we consider Greg Monroe. In the too-little, too-late department, Knight has been given a greener light and with Stuckey’s knee flaring up he’ll have one less guy to defer to, theoretically. Greg Monroe will get all he can eat as he tries to put some distance between his recent struggles. Charlie Villanueva appears to be on cruise control in his hit a few threes, grab a few boards role off the bench.
Anything Goes: Prince will be a rest risk, though we’ve heard nothing about him resting so far. Austin Daye saw 19 minutes last night, which came courtesy of Jonas Jerebko’s DNP. He has sleeper upside but, as usual, comes with a lot of risk barring an announcement that he’ll get burn. Vernon Macklin has been a guy the Pistons have been trying to develop, but he’ll be an even riskier play than Daye and needs a positive report before justifying much fantasy attention. Ben Gordon is usually the beneficiary of a Stuckey injury, but his recent performance and rest-risk puts him in the iffy box for fantasy owners.
CLEVELAND AT CHICAGO
Cavs Notes: Byron Scott isn’t going to stand for poor effort on the court, but the tank job is in full-effect and the Cavs really need to lose their game tonight. They’re in a three-way tie right now for the No. 3-5 slots in the draft, so a win would move them into a tie for fifth with the loser of the Nets/Raptors game.
Danger: Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out.
Looking Good: Nobody looked good last night with Alonzo Gee (seven points, eight boards, two steals, one block, 1-of-9 FGs) leading the starting unit with 23 minutes. If Gee doesn’t shoot so poorly, it’s possible the minute embargo might not have applied to him unless his ankle is still hurting. Watch for updates. Donald Sloan scored eight points with three rebounds and seven assists, and is a pretty good bet for a similar line as he starts for Irving and gets heavy run. Tristan Thompson went for just seven and four in 18 meager minutes, but did manage two steals and a block. Odds-wise, you have to think he has a decent chance of putting up low-end numbers tonight.
Anything Goes: I could have put each of the aforementioned in this section, but I didn’t because they are the safer bets on a shaky Cavs squad. Anthony Parker may be playing his last NBA basketball game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a little bit more run, especially with Irving fully out. He’s a well-below average option on a busy night, nonetheless. Antawn Jamison (10 points, four boards, 17 minutes) will be playing his last game with the Cavs, and I could see his usage going either way. His ambiguous, minor knee or ankle injury last night doesn’t help. Manny Harris fell off a cliff and saw just nine minutes, so maybe his look-see is done. Samardo Samuels went for nine and nine but had five turnovers in his 24 minutes, and his size will be needed against a Bulls team with plenty of inside pop. He’s still a deep league play only. D.J. Kennedy is the most interesting play, having been a pick-and-play by Cavs management that sported 12 points on 5-of-6 shooting (two threes) with six rebounds, three assists, and two blocks in 31 minutes off the bench. Other than a healthy Jamison, I like him the best out of this bunch on a hunch.
Bulls Notes: The Bulls can cinch up home court throughout the playoffs with a win or a Spurs loss, and Tom Thibodeau might play his guys 40 minutes apiece in a charity game if it was scheduled tomorrow. And while there are plenty that want to pray at the altar of Thibs, I have just two issues with the job that he does. 1) If his players are all run down and injured in the playoffs (only time will tell), then his COY award would be a farce. 2) His offense, which admittedly I have not dissected a bunch this year, was atrocious in last year’s playoffs. Schematically, he made no adjustments and got hammered for it. Cruising in the regular season is one thing, but when teams D-up in the playoffs it’s a whole other battle (see City, Oklahoma). Beyond that, Thibs is a stud, so you won’t get too many complaints overall from me. With Derrick Rose still needing to get a rhythm, I like the chances that the Bulls starters play 25-plus minutes.
Looking Good: Rose is a must-start player unless we learn he’ll be held out, and the same goes for Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Carlos Boozer. Just keep an eye on Deng, because that guy has been put through the ringer this year.
Anything Goes: Kyle Korver hit 8-of-13 shots (including four threes) for 20 points, and he could have fit in the looking good section, but he’s been pretty inconsistent all year. He’s a strong play for 3-point hunters, but carries a tiny bit of risk, too. Richard Hamilton has been hit or miss, and put up just four points on 2-of-10 shooting to go with four assists and a steal. Taj Gibson (10 points, three boards, one block) and Omer Asik (zero points, nine boards) have some upside in deeper leagues, as they could be relied upon if Thibs’ plan is to rest guys. You can go ahead and add C.J. Watson to that list, too.
MILWAUKEE AT BOSTON
Bucks Notes: The Bucks were eliminated from the playoffs on Monday and appear to be shutting it down. Scott Skiles teams are always worn down with about half of their players wanting off the squad by the end of the year. Skiles joked after last night’s game that he wanted to know what he could make on a one-day contract, so I’m taking that as a sign that a lot of guys will be out tonight.
Danger: Carlos Delfino (groin) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (knee) are not traveling with the team and they’re ruled out. Drew Gooden (left ankle) will make the trip and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel referred to “several other players that would make the trip.” Of course, they won’t mention them by name because they don’t play for the Packers, but that would suggest to me that Ersan Ilyasova (bruised thigh), Ekpe Udoh (knee), and Monta Ellis (shooting hand) are traveling, too. Gooden, Ilyasova, and Ellis did not play last night while Udoh had to leave the game late. At this point I don’t think owners can count on any of them, even Udoh, who has probably been more hurt than he has been letting on since the Ellis trade. His hyperextension never really got better in Golden State, and I think he’s just too risky to rely on until we get confirmation that he will start, and some warm and fuzzies would be nice, too. Similarly, if there is a confirmation that any of those three will start, then I think owners can consider them, but until then pencil somebody else in your lineup.
Looking Good: Brandon Jennings talked about playing for the love of the game, and barring a change he’s a must-start player heading into tonight. I made some noise about this in a few places around here, but I love Larry Sanders (12 points, four rebounds, three assists, four steals, five blocks) and Tobias Harris (15 points, 13 boards, one block) going into tonight. If one of Gooden or Ilyasova plays that word goes from ‘love’ to ‘like,’ and if both play then they’re borderline plays with a handful of upside.
Anything Goes: Aside from aforementioned starters, there are a bunch of guys that can help fantasy owners that have either low-upside or a bunch of risk. Shaun Livingston started and put up two points, six boards, seven assists, one steal, and two blocks in 33 minutes, and Beno Udrih scored nine points with five boards, nine assists, a three, and a steal in 26 minutes. Assuming Ellis is out, they should both put up similarly styled lines tonight. Mike Dunleavy played 23 minutes with plenty of guys out last night, and that should tip owners to what Skiles plans to do with him tonight. He scored 12 points with two threes, and that’s a fair expectation of his production tonight if he plays. Jon Leuer posted eight points with six boards, a steal, and two blocks in 21 minutes, and I’d say he is a decent bet to reproduce similar numbers and he has a nice amount of upside, assuming the iffy guys stay out.
Celtics Notes: The Celtics say they’re going to play their guys, and they’ll need a win and Hawks loss to climb into home court advantage against the dirty birds. In reality, they’re not overly concerned with home court so they need to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. They’ve been resting mostly everybody lately.
Danger: Ray Allen (ankle) is doubtful, while Kevin Garnett (hip) and Rajon Rondo (back) are probable in my book, if we’re taking Doc Rivers at face value. Greg Stiemsma is dealing with an apparently minor case of plantar fasciitis, which gets a side-eye from me but we’ll assume he’s more probable than doubtful. Mickael Pietrus (knee) says he will play.
Looking Good: Avery Bradley is the guy owners can hang their hat on minutes-wise, and though his numbers have ranged from sub-pedestrian to strong, I think he’s a guy you want in lineups more times than not. Brandon Bass (eight points, eight rebounds, two steals) is banged up in his own regard, but he’s not landing on injury reports right now, which is an important distinction. All in all, Rondo, Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Bass are all candidates to be rested, but they’ll be tough to bench to varying degrees if they’re announced as starters.
Anything Goes: If the Celtics completely tank it, or even if we count on shaved minutes for the key guys, Pietrus will be worth a look in deeper leagues as a guy who normally picks up the slack. Marquis Daniels had a nice 13 points, five boards, four assists, two steals, and a block in Tuesday’s garbage-time game with the Heat, and he’ll be worth a look if there are multiple absences. I can’t bring myself to recommend Sasha Pavlovic, but he hit two threes and had 16 points on Tuesday with everybody out.
NEW YORK AT CHARLOTTE
Knicks Notes: The Knicks don’t appear to care about their playoff seeding. With a win or Sixers loss they’ll get the No. 7 seed and a trip to Miami, and with a loss and Sixers win they’ll get No. 1 Chicago.
Danger: Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler are all-but ruled out for tonight, and Baron Davis and Mike Bibby are two guys that could be rested. Amare Stoudemire also qualifies for the rest watch list.
Looking Good: Iman Shumpert (six points, seven boards, one steal last night) looks like a solid play with the main guys exiting stage left. J.R. Smith (21 points, three treys, five assists, four steals) is a must-start player barring a negative report. Steve Novak hit four threes last night for 14 points and should be relied upon heavily tonight. The thought of the Bobcats trying to remember where Novak is on the court is laughable.
Anything Goes: Landry Fields profiles as a guy that will do well with all the absences, but his numbers have been so bad that he goes in this section. All of the veterans are iffy plays even if they go, and don’t be surprised to see Toney Douglas dusted off. If Douglas starts, he’ll be a sneaky upside play with a bunch of risk. Josh Harrelson could make some noise in a battle of the least talented outside shooting big men opposite Byron Mullens.
Bobcats Notes: I just can’t bring myself to believe that somebody in the NBA didn’t know that the Bobcats would be playing for NBA history, trying to avoid the worst losing percentage of all-time. Both they and the Spurs @ Warriors are the TNT matchups tonight, and the Bobcats’ play tonight will be a referendum on the Paul Silas/Stephen Silas/Michael Jordan operation. I’ll give Rich Cho a year on the job at least before lumping him in with them. If the Bobcats scrap, it doesn’t really change how badly that triumvirate has performed, but if the Bobcats fold then fans better hope MJ backs up the truck and somehow hops in the back.
Looking Good: D.J. Augustin (knee) started again and scored 23 points on 8-of-17 shooting with six assists and two threes last night, and the reason why he has repeatedly played when hurt is the same reason that he’ll play heavy minutes tonight – he’s perhaps the team’s best player. That doesn’t change the fact that Kemba Walker should have been locked into 30-plus minutes for two-thirds of the year, and that the go-young roster and rotation should have been set early so this band of misfits could have developed some continuity. Bismack Biyombo had three blocks, eight boards, and five points last night. He will be a good bet for blocks and boards, and is a must-start player for the latter category tonight. Gerald Henderson is putting up consistent numbers right now and should be in all lineups.
Anything Goes: Walker struggled in the disjointed second unit last night, hitting just 2-of-9 shots for four points with two rebounds and one assist. Yuck. Like Augustin, though, he is already one of the Bobcats’ best players for whatever that is worth, and he’ll be needed if the Cats have any chance of winning. The Knicks, for their part, will be resting guys and that means Charlotte can get away with playing Augustin and Walker heavy minutes – assuming whichever Silas is coaching cares at this point. Byron Mullens is wince-inducing right now, and he followed up his near double-double from Monday with an 11-point, one-rebound, one-three, four-turnover night on Wednesday. That just about sums up his year, but give him a look if you’re super desperate for big men or you need a safe FT% guy. Derrick Brown has been gutting out a bad ankle injury and had to leave the game last night, but also had his best game in a while with 16 points, five boards, and two steals in 28 minutes. Given his relative inconsistency lately and the ankle injury, I’d be looking at other options. If he says he’s going and you’re in a deep league, though, his ‘floor’ might be worth a look.
LA LAKERS AT SACRAMENTO
Lakers Notes: Kobe needs to score 38 points to win the scoring title.
Danger: Every starter other than Devin Ebanks is a threat to be benched. Kobe will make the decision about playing, and if I had to bet with a gun to my head I’d say he’ll go.
Looking Good: If the starters get the nod they’ll be worth a look to varying degrees, but let’s look at the bench assuming the starters are rested. Steve Blake, Jordan Hill, Josh McRoberts, Andrew Goudelock, Christian Eyenga, and Troy Murphy are the potential beneficiaries, and that’s the order I like them in blind. Blake and Hill will be decent starting options in standard formats if they’re getting a full boat of minutes.
Kings Notes: The Kings need a loss to keep pace in the draft day department, but they traditionally play this game hard in front of the packed home arena.
Looking Good: Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins should get used how they normally would, and so should Tyreke Evans, but his uncertain future has trouble written on it. He’s still a must-start player unless a surprise injury pops up. Jason Thompson is a must-start player barring a negative report.
Anything Goes: Kings management would love it if Travis Outlaw hung another big number, but betting on it is another story. Jimmer Fredette is a candidate to be let loose, so gambling on him in a deep league if you need threes makes some sense. Terrence Williams was on the tip of the Kings media's tongues a few weeks back, and he slowly disappeared until an illness ruled him out on Tuesday. Of course, the conspiracy is that the Kings just wanted to throw Outlaw out there, but regardless you can’t use Williams unless there is a real positive report.
SAN ANTONIO AT GOLDEN STATE
Spurs Notes: The Spurs can take the top overall seed in the playoffs with a win and a Bulls loss, but they could care less about seeding. Gregg Popovich isn’t with the team so assistant Mike Budenholzer will roam the sidelines, which is ironic because he was passed over by the Warriors so they could take a guy who ended up pushing all the wrong buttons this year. If anybody is remotely close to hurt, they will be taken out of the game as Pop and Co. are deathly afraid of injuries.
Danger: The Big Three and Gary Neal have all been ruled out.
Looking Good: Patty Mills has emerged as a (gulp) safe play and put up monster numbers last night, scoring a career-high 27 points on 9-of-23 shooting with five assists, a steal, and three treys. With Neal out, it’s doubtful that Cory Joseph is given much more than the 24 minutes he got last night. The other big story was Tiago Splitter putting up 26 points on 10-of-13 shooting with five boards and a block in just under 20 minutes. The Warriors are way more soft than the Suns, so another big night could be in order and DeJuan Blair is actually a nice play, too. Blair had 10 points, eight boards, and two steals, and his low center of gravity should absolutely destroy the lanky, awful bigs the Warriors are running out there.
Anything Goes: Danny Green (nine points, four boards, one three) and Kawhi Leonard (10 points) both played just 17 minutes, highlighting the tenuous nature of the Spurs’ fantasy rotation. Stephen Jackson scored nine points with four boards, six assists, and a three, and might be called upon to do damage in his old stomping grounds. Or Pop will call up Bud on the bat phone and tell him to rest the rapping old man. Virtually the entire roster is in play for the desperate or the category hunters, so close your eyes and let it fly if the feeling is right.
Warriors Notes: After blowing their tank job, they need to lose again tonight to avoid a 65 percent swing in their odds of keeping their much-discussed first round pick for this summer.
Danger: Nate Robinson (hamstring) and Dorell Wright (ankle) are long-shots in my opinion, since they can help them win. It really is that simple.
Looking Good: Charles Jenkins should get heavy run and while the numbers might not be efficient, he’ll put up low-end counting stats at a minimum. There’s no backup point guard. Klay Thompson has a good shot of seeing limited minutes, but I think he’s a must-start player for the green light he has. Jeremy Tyler is a solid low-end play at center with all the run he can handle.
Anything Goes: Mickell Gladness is worth a look if you need blocks and will get as much run as he can handle. Chris Wright is worth a look in deep leagues because I think you’ll see him on the floor a ton. Brandon Rush scored 15 points with four boards and three treys before being yanked for being effective, and he’ll be worth a look but I’m worried about a repeat on the minutes. Richard Jefferson is bad enough to qualify for a tank job, and playing against his old team he might get the ceremonial nod. Give him a look for threes. Dominic McGuire plays too much defense for the tank job, but pairing him with offensive deficiencies everywhere nearly guarantees a loss. He’s a deep league flier.