85. Byron Mullens (9-cat: 92, ADP: 10th Round) -- He is flying up draft boards and this ADP might not be enough to get him, as Friday night he put up a monster 16 points, 19 rebounds, two steals and a block. He hits threes and shoots a high percentage of his free throws, and with a year of real playing time under his belt it appears he has worked some of the kinks out. There isn't a late-round center in this draft with higher upside, including Jonas Valanciunas.
86. Joe Johnson (9-cat: 107, ADP: 4th Round) -- Another guy ranked way higher elsewhere, we don't have to look too far to see his disastrous 2010-11 campaign in which he ranked No. 91 on a per-game basis. The big difference in his top-40 per-game ranking from last season is the 2.1 3PM/gm he had last season, while the rest of his numbers held more or less consistent. I think he has a shot at nearing that 3-point mark this season, but everything else is on the table for discussion. The Atlanta offense literally revolved around him. That won't be true in Brooklyn, and along with his patella issue from last year, the mileage, and what looks like a lack of explosion -- he falls down my list.
87. Brook Lopez (9-cat: 87, ADP: Late 4th to 5th Round) -- I told folks to move him up draft boards but not that high up draft boards. He is not going to hit his top-25 per-game numbers from 2009-10, and I'm not going to declare his rebounding issues over after a hot preseason. He still has to contend with Crash and Kris Humphries for boards, and the same Achilles' heel for Joe Johnson applies to Lopez, too. There are a lot of options on offense and when you add in his injury risk I just can't be any more bullish.
88. Jonas Valanciunas (9-cat: 116, ADP: 10th Round) -- I've been hammering folks to not disregard this guy because his stiff Lithuanian coach wouldn't play him. His percentages buoy his value even in a low-minute role, and as we've seen he has the skill to take charge of the center position and he won't be looking back.
89. Dion Waiters (9-cat: 98, ADP: 11th Round) -- This is not where you should be drafting Waiters, but this is where I think he will finish. The short version is that I believe he can meet Klay Thompson's season-long rankings from last year. I think he will struggle with free throws and 3-pointers made, but I think he can meet or beat Klay's field goal percentage and possibly double his steals in a 24 mpg projection (Klay's mpg on the year). Thompson ranked No. 127 on the year and that's where I have Waiters' floor, and with plenty of minutes coming his way you can see that the upside goes from there.
90. Andrei Kirilenko (9-cat: 76, ADP: 9th Round) -- Having performed anywhere between a top 50-90 level over his last three NBA seasons, he settles into a projected range right in the middle of those numbers. Add the injury risk and here is where he lands.
91. Eric Gordon (9-cat: 124, ADP: End of 6th Round) -- Gordon has been going way higher than I would take him, by a lot, and that trend will continue now that a vague report out of New Orleans has him having a chance to play on Opening Night. I'm more than skeptical about his ability to pull that off, as his conditioning will be an issue and then from there he's a game of Russian Roulette waiting to happen. But, that news does take away some of the worst-case scenarios for Gordon, and thus why he has moved up about a round in this most recent update.
92. Elton Brand (9-cat: 68, ADP: 9th Round) -- Brand's fantasy friendly game returned top-75 per-game value last season and the injury risk of Dirk and Chris Kaman is offsetting some of Brand's risk. He could decline or get injured himself, but my guess is that Dallas keeps his minutes fairly in check to keep him healthy.
93. Thaddeus Young (9-cat: 52)
94. Bradley Beal (9-cat: 109, ADP: 10th Round) -- Beal already started beating up on his opponents, showing Joe Johnson a thing or two when the Wizards squared up against the Nets in preseason action. There is no doubt that he can play, and he will play good minutes for at least a month while John Wall (knee) gets up to speed. This gives him a perfect platform to fast-track his NBA success, and I believe if everything clicks he can land a round behind Klay Thompson's numbers as a starter. Chances are he falls well short of that mark, but the mere fact that he could hit that mark makes him better than your garden-variety rookie flier pick.
95. Tim Duncan (9-cat: 74)
96. Jameer Nelson (9-cat: 127)
LATER ROUNDS (9-12 OR MORE)
97. Derrick Favors (9-cat: 122)
98. Jason Terry (9-cat: 90)
99. J.J. Hickson (9-cat: 82)
100. Danny Granger (9-cat: 101, ADP: 5th Round) -- Granger was a top-40 play last season and there are plenty of reasons wearing Pacers unis to think that would fall even if he was healthy. But he's not. Frank Vogel openly discussed a slow start, which would of course give others a chance to take the baton from him. At 80-90% a few days ago, Granger could get healthy and outperform his draft position, but betting on that is bad business.
101. Luis Scola (9-cat: 118)
102. Tony Allen (9-cat: 93)
103. Gerald Green (9-cat: 105)
104. Andrea Bargnani (9-cat: 103)
105. Omer Asik (9-cat: 121)
106. Brandon Knight (9-cat: 138)
107. Ray Allen (9-cat: 79)
108. Carlos Delfino (9-cat: 84)
109. David West (9-cat: 97)
110. Evan Turner (9-cat: 134)
111. DeAndre Jordan (9-cat: 78)
112. Kris Humphries (9-cat: 91)
113. Jared Dudley (9-cat: 88)
114. Kevin Seraphin (9-cat: 104)
115. Shawn Marion (9-cat: 125)
116. Spencer Hawes (9-cat: 108)
117. Chris Kaman (9-cat: 147)
118. J.J. Redick (9-cat: 85)
119. Andrew Bogut (9-cat: 110)
120. Ricky Rubio (9-cat: 151)
121. Markieff Morris (9-cat: 129)
122. Samuel Dalembert (9-cat: 100)
123. Nate Robinson (9-cat: 117)
124. Trevor Ariza (9-cat: 120)
125. C.J. Miles (9-cat: 115)
126. Dorell Wright (9-cat: 94)
127. Jordan Crawford (9-cat: 161)
128. Luke Ridnour (9-cat: 135)
129. Danny Green (9-cat: 86)
130. Kemba Walker (9-cat: 139)
131. Ramon Sessions (9-cat: 153)
132. Gustavo Ayon (9-cat: 112)
133. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (9-cat: 142)
134. Chandler Parsons (9-cat: 119)
135. Tyler Zeller (9-cat: 131)
136. Jae Crowder (9-cat: 99)
137. George Hill (9-cat: 128)
138. Jason Richardson (9-cat: 123)
139. D.J. Augustin (9-cat: 141)
140. Austin Rivers (9-cat: 167)
141. Landry Fields (9-cat: 146)
142. Nikola Vucevic (9-cat: 126)
143. Amare Stoudemire (9-cat: 150, ADP: End of 6th Round) -- If you know people that question this ranking, grab them and invite them into a fantasy league. I had him at 139 before Friday's news that he's seeking a second opinion on his knee, which I hope helped you guys avoid disaster after the unsurprising news hit the wire. I'd drop him further but there is a chance he gets healthy and attempts to regain last year's yawn inducing No. 71 rank on a per-game basis. He's basically worth a flier pick.
144. Tristan Thompson (9-cat: 160)
ROUND 13 AND BEYOND
145. Taj Gibson (9-cat: 143)
146. Terrence Ross (9-cat: 165)
147. Jamal Crawford (9-cat: 155)
148. Alonzo Gee (9-cat: 159)
149. Jeff Green (9-cat: 132)
150. Devin Harris (9-cat: 164)
On the bubble (in no order): Andre Drummond, Jason Thompson, Nene, Jose Calderon, Thomas Robinson, Vince Carter, Courtney Lee, Hedo Turkoglu, Chase Budinger, Drew Gooden, Gerald Henderson, Zaza Pachulia, Mike Dunleavy, Robin Lopez, Tiago Splitter, Steve Novak, Bismack Biyombo, Antawn Jamison, Shannon Brown, Tobias Harris, Mario Chalmers, Andre Miller, Al-Farouq Aminu, James Johnson, Jerryd Bayless
Persons of interest (ranked anywhere between 175-360, no order): Donatas Motiejunas, Alexey Shved, Anthony Morrow, Trevor Booker, Wes Johnson, Andrew Nicholson, Lance Thomas, Larry Sanders, Royce White, Ed Davis, Wes Johnson, Lance Stephenson, Terrence Jones, A.J. Price, Eric Bledsoe, Josh Selby, Perry Jones III, Jared Sullinger, Jeremy Lamb, Darius Miller, Jarrett Jack, Harrison Barnes,
Again, hit me up on Twitter to get the most out of us and let's go get ourselves a championship or three.