Ryan Knaus

Saturday Dose

Here Comes Batum

Saturday, November 17, 2012

”

And finally…Here are a few note-worthy statistical trends for NBA teams through the first few weeks of the season, which should help with tricky matchup- and category-based lineup decisions. There are tons of mitigating factors for these raw stats, such as a team's pace, strength of schedule, and healthy personnel, but from a fantasy perspective these are still useful metrics.

Teams allowing the most points: Cavaliers (104.8) Suns (104.0), Trail Blazers (100.9) Raptors (100.6), Heat (100.2)...and with the exception of the Heat, these are also the teams that yield the highest field goal percentages

Teams allowing the fewest points: Wolves (88.5), Knicks (89.8), Hornets (90.5), Pacers (91.1), 76ers (91.1)

Teams allowing the most 3-pointers per game: Heat (9.1), Bobcats (8.9), Nuggets (7.7), Rockets (7.6), Clippers (7.5).

Teams allowing the fewest 3-pointers per game: Wizards (5.4), Bulls (5.5), Nets (5.6), Mavericks (5.6), Trail Blazers (5.8)

Teams which force the most turnovers: Hawks (18.0), Clippers (17.8), Cavaliers (17.0), Knicks (17.0), Kings (16.5)

Teams which force the fewest turnovers: Pacers (11.4), Lakers (12.4), Nuggets (12.6), Thunder (13.0), Nets (13.0)

Teams allowing the most steals: Rockets (9.6), Jazz (9.6), Lakers (9.5), Pacers (9.2), Pistons (9.0)

Teams allowing the fewest steals: Knicks (5.0), Suns (5.8), Bobcats (6.4), Kings (6.8), Hornets (7.0)

Teams allowing the most blocks: Cavaliers (8.3), Bobcats (8.3), Kings (7.8), Nuggets (7.6), Raptors (7.5)

Teams allowing the fewest blocks: Thunder (2.7), Bucks (3.4), Knicks (4.0), Nets (4.3), Heat (4.3)

Today's column will begin with quick recaps of Friday's nine games, followed by some news and notes, and some statistics that might be useful when setting lineups this week. Let's begin.

Jazz at 76ers: The Jazz fell behind by double-digits in the first quarter, and their second unit wound up carrying them in a tough loss on the road in Philly. Paul Millsap was typically efficient in 28 minutes, scoring 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting with seven rebounds and three assists, but the other starters all had sub-par games, particularly Gordon Hayward (eight points, zero rebounds in 23 minutes). Millsap's 3-point shooting has been a fascinating footnote for Utah this season -- he had a total of 18 makes from downtown in his first six NBA seasons, but suddenly he's 8-of-13 from deep through nine games this year. His minutes are virtually unchanged from last season, and things couldn't be going better for his fantasy owners. I'm not even worried about a potential trade, since Millsap's game is so efficient and versatile that he could fit into any system, and any team trading for him would be in need of a starting PF. DeMarre Carroll also scored 17 points with five boards and two steals off the bench, but he made 6-of-6 FGs and I'm labeling it a fluke.

Jrue Holiday led the way for Philly with 26 points, six rebounds and seven assists on Friday, while Jason Richards on scored 20 points with five 3-pointers to help Philly improve to 5-4. Nobody expected Kwame Brown to have fantasy value, even as the starting C, but Spencer Hawes has been a serious disappointment. He's been cold since opening night, he finished the win over Utah with just four points, three rebounds and four personal fouls, and (even with Andrew Bynum's distressing setback) I'm fine cutting him for a more promising long-term pickup.

Mavericks at Pacers: O.J. Mayo scored 19 points to lead the way for Dallas, making 6-of-13 FGs, 5-of-6 FTs and 2-of-3 from downtown. In his first six games, Mayo averaged a ridiculous 4.3 three-pointers per game -- he's averaging a more realistic 1.8 threes over his past four games, but that's due almost entirely to fewer attempts, as he's still made 7-of-13 from downtown during that span. I do expect a hit to his numbers once Dirk Nowitzki (knee) returns to action, but Mayo will be indispensable all year long for Dallas. Vince Carter scored 10 points in 18 minutes off the bench, but had zero 3-pointers or other stats to his credit. He survived his recent hip injury but the return of Shawn Marion (two points, seven rebounds in 25 minutes) makes him droppable in all formats. Nothing about Jae Crowder's play over the past few weeks suggests he would thrive in a bigger role, and Rick Carlisle hasn't failed to notice. Finally, Shawn Marion returned to the starting SF spot but scored just two points with seven rebounds in 25 minutes. He's been heavily involved in the Mavs' gameplan but will lose value upon Dirk's return, and there are probably guys with higher upside on your waiver wire.

George Hill bounced back from a 1-of-10 shooting performance with 15 points, five rebounds, seven assists and two steals in the Pacers' much-needed home win vs. Dallas. He's been playing well all year and is currently the backbone of Indiana's predictable offense, making him a must-start PG in 12-team leagues. Lance Stephenson scored 12 points in another start at SG. He may be the Pacers' best option at SG right now, but he's a weak defender who tends toward erratic decision-making, and thus far he's been a borderline fantasy asset. Sam Young scored 14 points in 21 minutes off the bench, while Gerald Green (who has thoroughly smothered his buzz in fantasyland) had five points and five boards in 21 minutes. D.J. Augustin didn't even attempt a shot in 14 minutes, and he's been invisible through 10 games for the sub-.500 Pacers.

Magic at Pistons: J.J. Redick had 23 points with six 3-pointers in another start on Friday. He's automatic with sufficient playing time, and needs to be in all active lineups since he faces no obvious competition for minutes until Hedo Turkoglu (hand) returns. Jameer Nelson played after a six-game absence, and to my surprise he posted a double-double with 13 points, 10 assists and two steals. The Magic came into this game scoring 88.0 points per game, third-lowest in the league, but Nelson has enough upside to be starting in average formats. His return moved E'Twaun Moore to a bench role, where Moore had eight points and four rebounds in 18 minutes. Cut him for anyone. Glen Davis had 17 points and 13 rebounds, and he's now 13-of-19 from the field over his past two games. Not bad.

For the Pistons, Rodney Stuckey returned in a voluntary bench role but had just nine points, one assist, zero steals and a +/- rating of -19. Kyle Singler had 14 points in 29 minutes as the starting SG, and he's been good enough that I'd pick him up in 12-team leagues. Corey Maggette (calf) has returned to action, and that's all I'll say about that.

Warriors at Wolves: The biggest development for the Warriors this week has been Harrison Barnes. Brandon Rush's injury has forced Mark Jackson to throw him into the fire, and Richard Jefferson doesn't pose a realistic threat at SF. Over the past two games, Barnes' minutes have spiked and he's averaging 18.5 points and 13.0 rebounds -- he needs to be owned, obviously, but I still expect a season full of highs and lows for the rookie.

Malcolm Lee was scoreless in 19 minutes as the Wolves' starting SG, and the guy to own is Alexey Shved, who erupted for 22 points, three 3-pointers, three rebounds, seven assists and another block in 33 minutes off the bench. Rick Adelman hinted mysteriously that J.J. Barea (sprained foot) could be out for quite a while, which only increases Shved's stock. Derrick Williams finally cashed in on unfettered minutes at PF, scoring 23 points on 8-of-16 FGs and 6-of-6 FTs, with seven rebounds and four blocks. There's no reason to assume he'll do this again, however, and Kevin Love's return in early December (at the latest) seriously dims D-Will's outlook.

Thunder at Hornets: Kevin Martin's line is the only one that jumps out for OKC -- he attempted just four shots on Wednesday and Scott Brooks openly said that wasn't enough, so he came out firing on Friday and scored 27 points on 9-of-17 FGs, including six 3-pointers. He also chipped in five rebounds and four assists, and he's simply thriving in his new sixth-man role. The Thunder are 7-3.

The Hornets, meanwhile, were blown out in the first quarter and didn't play any starter more than 29 minutes. Ryan Anderson scored 15 points to lead the way, Robin Lopez scored 12 points with just two rebounds, and I wish I could erase this game from my memory. Deep league owners should keep an eye on Brian Roberts, who has zero steals or blocks this season, and struggles with most aspects of the game, but faces no competition for backup PG minutes while Eric Gordon is sidelined.

Knicks at Grizzlies: The Knicks fell to 6-1 with a road loss vs. the red-hot Grizzlies, who are benefitting from a healthy Zach Randolph (20 points, 15 rebounds), the maturation of Marc Gasol (24 points) and Mike Conley (16 points, eight assists), and solid post-Mayo bench play. Rudy Gay finished with 17 points, two rebounds, three assists, two steals and four blocks in the blowout, and coming into this game he was averaging career-highs in points (20.7), shot attempts (19.0), and rebounds (6.6). Tony Allen's 25 minutes are no fluke -- he's averaging a mere 23 minutes through eight games, and the steals specialist should be dropped for a hot FA.

Rockets at Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard took over down the stretch for the Blazers, yet again, and he's quickly established himself as a viable franchise PG in the NBA. The overall No. 6 pick is returning late second-round value in eight-cat leagues, while turnovers bump him down a round in nine-cat. I have zero doubts about his abilities, and last night's thrilling OT win was another reason to love him, but I'm mildly concerned with the rookie's workload -- he's averaging 37.6 minutes per game, tied for 13th most in the league. That's a heavy burden for any player, particularly a guy who played 41 games combined in his final two seasons with Weber State. If Terry Stotts doesn't eventually manage his minutes, Lillard may collapse at the foot of the 'rookie wall' by February.

LaMarcus Aldridge's wrist injury seems to have been a false alarm, as he scored 29 points on 11-of-19 shooting vs. the Rockets on Friday. Meyers Leonard had eight points and eight rebounds in 27 minutes, and he's having a deleterious effect on J.J. Hickson's value -- Hickson scored just three points, he didn't play late in the fourth quarter or during overtime, and his role will only erode further as the season progresses. Nicolas Batum poured in a career-high 35 points in a spirited home victory, making 13-of-19 FGs with five 3-pointers. He added one steals and five blocks, including game-saving blocks late in the 4Q and OT. Simply put, he's exceeding expectations while returning first-round fantasy value, and I see no reason why he'd slow down. I'm thrilled to have drafted him in most of my money leagues. Oh, and while Wesley Matthews (15/5/5) may not jump out on the boxscore, his defense down the stretch was ridiculously good. He's quiet, but man does he get it done. Another note: Portland desperately needs more production from their bench. The bench collectively scored 10 points vs. the Rockets, and has averaged 12.2 points over the past five games.

Hawks at Kings: Kyle Korver drained 5-of-5 three-pointers to finish with 22 points, seven rebounds and three assists in 37 minutes. Korver works as a 3-point specialist, but there's too much competition in ATL's backcourt to bother with him in most scenarios. Devin Harris went scoreless in his return from a hamstring, while Al Horford (20 & 10) looked like himself in a return from the flu.

Tyreke Evans made 5-of-11 FGs for 14 points in the loss, but went without a rebound and had just one assist in 27 minutes. DeMarcus Cousins had nine points, 16 rebounds and seven assists, but didn't block a shot and made just 4-of-15 FGs, continuing his bewilderingly poor shooting (41 percent on the season). Jason Thompson provided the lone bright spot, notching 19 points and 10 rebounds in another start at PF -- Thomas Robinson had four points and four personal fouls to his credit, and there's no imminent position battle here.

Suns at Lakers: Metta World Peace had a phenomenal game vs. the Suns, posting 22 points, five 3s, six rebounds, three assists, three steals and one block. I think Mike D'Antoni's system will benefit nearly every Lakers player, by increasing the team's pace and thus their total points, shot attempts, rebounds, assists, etc., but I still don't view Metta as a must-own player. The rest of the Lakers' lines were status quo, as Kobe scored his 31 points and Dwight and Pau both double-doubled with a few blocks. Steve Blake is still out with a strained abdomen, so Chris Duhon played backup PG in the Lakers' final game under interim coach Bernie Bickerstaff.

Random Player Notes: Steve Nash (fractured leg) was ruled out for at least another week -- he'll be re-examined next weekend.

Klay Thompson left Friday's game with the flu, and we'll keep an eye on his status for back-to-back road games on Sunday and Monday.

LeBron James has the flu so keep an eye on his status for Saturday night's game at Phoenix.

Ersan Ilyasova came into Friday night shooting 28 percent from the field and 43 percent from the FT line, and he admitted this week that he feels pressure to live up to the big contract Milwaukee gave him this summer. “I have had trouble sleeping lately,” Ilyasova told beat writer Gery Woelfel. “I just got to keep working and find my rhythm.” As I've said before and will say again, Ilyasova is too talented for fantasy owners to bail on him after two awful weeks. Almost every player goes through a slump at some point in the season, so let's just hope Ersan is getting his out of the way now.

Kawhi Leonard was shockingly shut down on Friday for 10-14 days due to right knee tendinitis. The second-year player is averaging under 29 minutes per game and nobody could have seen this coming. Stephen Jackson gains the most in his absence, and I also expect Danny Green to pick up minutes in the rotation. Kawhi holds more value in roto leagues, where I would not drop him, but in head-to-head leagues the decision depends upon individual league sizes, rules, and available FAs.

Kenneth Faried leads the NBA with a ridiculous 6.0 offensive rebounds in just 30 minutes per game. For some perspective, consider that the Celtics as a team are averaging 6.8 offensive boards. Every team is coached to put a body on him once a shot goes up, yet his incredible motor, coupled with athleticism and a terrific rebounding IQ, allows him to consistently gain inside position or chase down loose balls.

Coming into Friday's game, Jazz announcer David Locke Tweeted the following: "Mo Williams has taken 3 free throws in his last 186 minutes on the floor and 73 shot attempts." Mo averaged a microscopic 1.5 FT attempts per game in a backup role with the Clippers last year, so we can't blame this on his strained abductor making him tentative. The low volume seriously detracts from his otherwise sparkling 94.7 percent FT shooting.

Keep an eye on Darren Collison, who should continue to emerge as a fantasy treasure for the Mavs this season. “He has the opportunity to run the team, to be the trigger man for everything we do,” said coach Rick Carlisle. “We want him to be aggressive both to score and to create opportunities for his teammates.”