On a busy 13-game night there were a ton of fantasy developments, including timetables being delivered on Andrea Bargnani and Kyle Lowry, big nights by Ed Davis and C.J. Miles, value swaps in Brooklyn’s frontcourt, Byron Mullens panic, the Washington guard movement, Ricky Rubio’s nearing return and so much more. So let’s do this.
To get much of this information in real-time, click here to follow me on Twitter.
Raptor Rapture
Moments before tip-off against the Nets there were big announcements on the status of Kyle Lowry and Andrea Bargnani, which was foreshadowed by 24 hours of radio silence. Lowry was diagnosed with a partial tear of his triceps and will miss 10 days by the most recent report. Somehow there was no mention of his right hand injury and it goes without saying that his ankle could use some rest, as Lowry has officially crossed the line into injury-prone player. There has also been a growing focus on his bad attitude in Toronto, which was a concern coming out of Houston that was somewhat mitigated by the so-called relationship Dwane Casey has with him. Obviously, the relationship isn’t good enough to get the selfish play and lackadaisical defense out of Lowry's system, but it’s still early. Jose Calderon is set to go on another tear while auditioning for his eventual trade out of town.
Bargnani’s injury is much more cloudy, but also much more serious as he has a torn right elbow ligament and a strained right wrist. Beat writer Eric Koreen shared an anecdotal 1-2 month timeline for similar injuries, and at a minimum it sounds like he’ll miss more than the 10 days noted in the same announcement for Lowry. So let’s get down to business. I have no problem cutting Bargnani because it’s not even clear if he’ll be a legitimate fantasy force this season. It’s obvious he is one of the main problems in Toronto, as his defense and rebounding have become so insufferable that virtually everybody is calling for him to lose minutes. With his injury history and likelihood of being traded, I see no reason to pass up on a free agent in 12-14 team formats with him sitting on the outside of the top-125 when healthy this season.
Bargnani’s injury, along with Amir Johnson’s one-game suspension, left Ed Davis free to live up to the hype he has been getting around here. Davis responded with a season-high 24 points, 12 rebounds, and three steals in a whopping 45 minutes of action. If you’re reading this for the first time, it’s probably too late for you to grab him and you should probably be following us on Twitter. I also made a beeline to see if Jonas Valanciunas (15 points, 6-of-6 FGs, four rebounds, two blocks, 26 minutes) was available as I’m considering him a must-own player in 12-team formats. This injury to Bargnani is very likely to mark the changing of a forgettable era for the Raptors, and Valanciunas is the future.
Calderon predictably went off for 10 points and 15 assists to go with some other goodies, while DeMar DeRozan had 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting with five boards, two assists, four steals, and one block. I like him as a slight buy low candidate because he’ll be asked to carry more load in both the short and medium-term for the Raptors. Mickael Pietrus bombed with just five points on 2-of-8 shooting in 28 minutes, and inconsistency takes a lot of the shine off when he can’t stay on the court. Linas Kleiza (knee) did not play and he’s a poor man’s Pietrus.
With all of the wing injuries in Toronto, it was telling that rookie Terrence Ross was only able to muster seven points on 3-of-8 shooting with two rebounds, two steals, and one three in 21 minutes. As you can see the versatility is there, but the minutes and touches aren’t -- even with a red carpet rolled out in front of him.
Dealing with Deron
Deron Williams has disappointed with mid-round value on the year, and last night was no different as he hit just 5-of-16 shots (including two threes) for 12 points to go with four assists. His shot selection has been garbage this season, he looks overweight, and he is an injury risk. Conventional wisdom says it’s a buy low moment, and based on his current value it certainly is, but I just don’t like being in the D-Will business.
Joe Johnson scored 23 points and hit four threes. You guys know where I stand here, so try to sell him high if you’re on the same page. Gerald Wallace tweaked his right knee in Tuesday’s game, and he played like a guy with a tweaked knee last night with nine points on 2-of-5 shooting, one rebound, three assists, and one steal in 25 minutes (zero fouls). I said it yesterday but hang onto Andray Blatche (14 points, nine boards, three assists) until further notice. Kris Humphries (11 points, two boards, 18 minutes) is radioactive in both league and fantasy circles, and the shine is long gone for an average player at best on a playoff team. Blatche may simply slide over to the four when Brook Lopez reportedly returns on Friday.
King of the Kiddie Pool
Omri Casspi (illness) didn’t play in last night’s loss to the Pacers and Daniel Gibson (elbow) did play, but Gibson is a non-factor on the basketball court right now and could probably use a few weeks off. This opened the door wide-open for C.J. Miles to continue his tear, as Miles scored 28 points for the second straight night with a season-high six 3-pointers. I’m not cutting anybody with long-term value to grab Miles, who has plenty of problems in Byron Scott’s eyes (defense, shot selection, effort) and will have Dion Waiters to contend with. It’s also worth noting that the Cavs went limp in the second half because of those same gripes that Scott has with Miles, so the contrast of what he’s getting and what he wants is going to be fresh in his mind after last night’s 31-point swing. Eventually, Miles will find himself on the wrong side of that equation.
That said, if you have dead weight or a low-end player with no upside, Miles is the perfect fill-in as he’s being forced to produce right now for the kiddie-pool deep Cavs.
Otherwise, everybody for the Cavs struggled and played with low energy, sparking some truly bad fantasy lines. The best advice is to consider that this could be a fairly common occurrence this season, but to throw last night’s specific results out for evaluation purposes.
The Best Excuse for No Offense is a Good Defense
Lance Stephenson left last night's win over the Cavs with what is being called a “moderate right ankle sprain” and it’s possible he will miss some time. Unfortunately, it doesn’t really matter in fantasy leagues with the Pacers turning into the old Bears and Ravens squads of football seasons’ past. They’re wearing teams down with their defense and hoping their key guys can scratch across enough points to make it work.
George Hill can get his (17 points, 5-of-16 FGs, seven boards, three assists) but he can’t get anything going for anybody else. David West (18 points, nine boards, seven assists, one steal, two blocks) is the only other consistent option the Pacers have right now, so the two players get their numbers and everybody else is usually on their own. Paul George has done much better within that framework lately and had another huge night with 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting, three treys, seven boards, and three assists, but he’ll need to stay in sync with Hill and West’s offense or look forward to inconsistency.
Roy Hibbert (four points, 12 boards, one steal, three blocks, five turnovers, 1-of-7 FGs) gets the ball in awful spots, which is everybody’s fault, and nobody respects the offense as a whole so he goes through a maze of dive-bombing guards and unstressed defenders. Ben Hansbrough (six points, one assist, 17 minutes) was promoted to backup PG over D.J. Augustin, who made Jimmer look like Jordan the other night, but the fresh blood did nothing for Gerald Green (1-of-8 FGs, two points) or anybody else on the bench.
Sometimes You’re the Bug
The Clippers tangled with the Bobcats in Charlotte and eventually won, but it was a lot closer than the two team’s recent play would have suggested. Jamal Crawford’s mini-slide continued as he hit just 2-of-12 shots for nine points and turned into a facilitator with eight assists. He also added three rebounds, one steal, two blocks, and a triple, so the night wasn’t a total wash. Doc and I have bet on opposite sides of Chauncey Billups’ impact on Crawford. I feared Billups would cut into Crawford’s minutes and touches, while Doc believed Billups was a bug on Crawford’s windshield.
Matt Barnes made another appearance on the radar with 19 points, three treys, four boards, and two blocks, and he has been playing at a mid-round level for two weeks now. The same thing is true for Eric Bledsoe (13 points, eight rebounds, one steal, two blocks, one three, 22 minutes), so don’t be afraid to give both of them a look despite their shaky bench roles. I need to see Lamar Odom (five points, nine rebounds, two steals, three blocks, 24 minutes) do much more, many more times before I put him on a watch list in the vast majority of formats.
Manic Mullens
Give me all of your Byron Mullens panic. I get it, he’s not that good, but he’s also not nearly as bad as many people would like you to think. An easy target playing the shooting guard role on offense most of the time, he is called soft and on defense he’s not delivering highlight-reel blocks. Over the past two weeks he has been clinging to 14-team value, but that takes into account his worst slump that included an injury-shorted game for good measure. He’s still a top-100 value on the year and what goes down must go up, and we saw signs of that as Mullens woke up from a dreadful first half to finish with 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting, two threes, eight boards, two assists, and one block. Even with Bismack Biyombo (39 minutes, 10 points, nine boards, two steals, no blocks) stepping up, the only remaining big men are DeSagana Diop, Brendan Haywood, and Tyrus Thomas. The Bobcats run much of their offense through Mullens, and he’s going to compete on defense well enough to keep a substantial role barring a massive face-plant.
Jeff Taylor (15 minutes, zero points) might have turned back into a pumpkin last night, while the bench triumvirate of Ben Gordon (eight points, 3-of-11 FGs), Ramon Sessions (11 points, 3-of-10 FGs, three assists, and Gerald Henderson (12 points, four boards, two assists, 4-of-9 FGs) all struggled to gain traction with none of them topping 24 minutes. I like them in the following order: Henderson, Sessions, Gordon. Sessions and Gordon can be dropped in 12-14 team formats, while Henderson should be held a little bit to see if he can retake his starting position from Taylor.
On a busy 13-game night there were a ton of fantasy developments, including timetables being delivered on Andrea Bargnani and Kyle Lowry, big nights by Ed Davis and C.J. Miles, value swaps in Brooklyn’s frontcourt, Byron Mullens panic, the Washington guard movement, Ricky Rubio’s nearing return and so much more. So let’s do this.
To get much of this information in real-time, click here to follow me on Twitter.
Raptor Rapture
Moments before tip-off against the Nets there were big announcements on the status of Kyle Lowry and Andrea Bargnani, which was foreshadowed by 24 hours of radio silence. Lowry was diagnosed with a partial tear of his triceps and will miss 10 days by the most recent report. Somehow there was no mention of his right hand injury and it goes without saying that his ankle could use some rest, as Lowry has officially crossed the line into injury-prone player. There has also been a growing focus on his bad attitude in Toronto, which was a concern coming out of Houston that was somewhat mitigated by the so-called relationship Dwane Casey has with him. Obviously, the relationship isn’t good enough to get the selfish play and lackadaisical defense out of Lowry's system, but it’s still early. Jose Calderon is set to go on another tear while auditioning for his eventual trade out of town.
Bargnani’s injury is much more cloudy, but also much more serious as he has a torn right elbow ligament and a strained right wrist. Beat writer Eric Koreen shared an anecdotal 1-2 month timeline for similar injuries, and at a minimum it sounds like he’ll miss more than the 10 days noted in the same announcement for Lowry. So let’s get down to business. I have no problem cutting Bargnani because it’s not even clear if he’ll be a legitimate fantasy force this season. It’s obvious he is one of the main problems in Toronto, as his defense and rebounding have become so insufferable that virtually everybody is calling for him to lose minutes. With his injury history and likelihood of being traded, I see no reason to pass up on a free agent in 12-14 team formats with him sitting on the outside of the top-125 when healthy this season.
Bargnani’s injury, along with Amir Johnson’s one-game suspension, left Ed Davis free to live up to the hype he has been getting around here. Davis responded with a season-high 24 points, 12 rebounds, and three steals in a whopping 45 minutes of action. If you’re reading this for the first time, it’s probably too late for you to grab him and you should probably be following us on Twitter. I also made a beeline to see if Jonas Valanciunas (15 points, 6-of-6 FGs, four rebounds, two blocks, 26 minutes) was available as I’m considering him a must-own player in 12-team formats. This injury to Bargnani is very likely to mark the changing of a forgettable era for the Raptors, and Valanciunas is the future.
Calderon predictably went off for 10 points and 15 assists to go with some other goodies, while DeMar DeRozan had 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting with five boards, two assists, four steals, and one block. I like him as a slight buy low candidate because he’ll be asked to carry more load in both the short and medium-term for the Raptors. Mickael Pietrus bombed with just five points on 2-of-8 shooting in 28 minutes, and inconsistency takes a lot of the shine off when he can’t stay on the court. Linas Kleiza (knee) did not play and he’s a poor man’s Pietrus.
With all of the wing injuries in Toronto, it was telling that rookie Terrence Ross was only able to muster seven points on 3-of-8 shooting with two rebounds, two steals, and one three in 21 minutes. As you can see the versatility is there, but the minutes and touches aren’t -- even with a red carpet rolled out in front of him.
Dealing with Deron
Deron Williams has disappointed with mid-round value on the year, and last night was no different as he hit just 5-of-16 shots (including two threes) for 12 points to go with four assists. His shot selection has been garbage this season, he looks overweight, and he is an injury risk. Conventional wisdom says it’s a buy low moment, and based on his current value it certainly is, but I just don’t like being in the D-Will business.
Joe Johnson scored 23 points and hit four threes. You guys know where I stand here, so try to sell him high if you’re on the same page. Gerald Wallace tweaked his right knee in Tuesday’s game, and he played like a guy with a tweaked knee last night with nine points on 2-of-5 shooting, one rebound, three assists, and one steal in 25 minutes (zero fouls). I said it yesterday but hang onto Andray Blatche (14 points, nine boards, three assists) until further notice. Kris Humphries (11 points, two boards, 18 minutes) is radioactive in both league and fantasy circles, and the shine is long gone for an average player at best on a playoff team. Blatche may simply slide over to the four when Brook Lopez reportedly returns on Friday.
King of the Kiddie Pool
Omri Casspi (illness) didn’t play in last night’s loss to the Pacers and Daniel Gibson (elbow) did play, but Gibson is a non-factor on the basketball court right now and could probably use a few weeks off. This opened the door wide-open for C.J. Miles to continue his tear, as Miles scored 28 points for the second straight night with a season-high six 3-pointers. I’m not cutting anybody with long-term value to grab Miles, who has plenty of problems in Byron Scott’s eyes (defense, shot selection, effort) and will have Dion Waiters to contend with. It’s also worth noting that the Cavs went limp in the second half because of those same gripes that Scott has with Miles, so the contrast of what he’s getting and what he wants is going to be fresh in his mind after last night’s 31-point swing. Eventually, Miles will find himself on the wrong side of that equation.
That said, if you have dead weight or a low-end player with no upside, Miles is the perfect fill-in as he’s being forced to produce right now for the kiddie-pool deep Cavs.
Otherwise, everybody for the Cavs struggled and played with low energy, sparking some truly bad fantasy lines. The best advice is to consider that this could be a fairly common occurrence this season, but to throw last night’s specific results out for evaluation purposes.
The Best Excuse for No Offense is a Good Defense
Lance Stephenson left last night's win over the Cavs with what is being called a “moderate right ankle sprain” and it’s possible he will miss some time. Unfortunately, it doesn’t really matter in fantasy leagues with the Pacers turning into the old Bears and Ravens squads of football seasons’ past. They’re wearing teams down with their defense and hoping their key guys can scratch across enough points to make it work.
George Hill can get his (17 points, 5-of-16 FGs, seven boards, three assists) but he can’t get anything going for anybody else. David West (18 points, nine boards, seven assists, one steal, two blocks) is the only other consistent option the Pacers have right now, so the two players get their numbers and everybody else is usually on their own. Paul George has done much better within that framework lately and had another huge night with 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting, three treys, seven boards, and three assists, but he’ll need to stay in sync with Hill and West’s offense or look forward to inconsistency.
Roy Hibbert (four points, 12 boards, one steal, three blocks, five turnovers, 1-of-7 FGs) gets the ball in awful spots, which is everybody’s fault, and nobody respects the offense as a whole so he goes through a maze of dive-bombing guards and unstressed defenders. Ben Hansbrough (six points, one assist, 17 minutes) was promoted to backup PG over D.J. Augustin, who made Jimmer look like Jordan the other night, but the fresh blood did nothing for Gerald Green (1-of-8 FGs, two points) or anybody else on the bench.
Sometimes You’re the Bug
The Clippers tangled with the Bobcats in Charlotte and eventually won, but it was a lot closer than the two team’s recent play would have suggested. Jamal Crawford’s mini-slide continued as he hit just 2-of-12 shots for nine points and turned into a facilitator with eight assists. He also added three rebounds, one steal, two blocks, and a triple, so the night wasn’t a total wash. Doc and I have bet on opposite sides of Chauncey Billups’ impact on Crawford. I feared Billups would cut into Crawford’s minutes and touches, while Doc believed Billups was a bug on Crawford’s windshield.
Matt Barnes made another appearance on the radar with 19 points, three treys, four boards, and two blocks, and he has been playing at a mid-round level for two weeks now. The same thing is true for Eric Bledsoe (13 points, eight rebounds, one steal, two blocks, one three, 22 minutes), so don’t be afraid to give both of them a look despite their shaky bench roles. I need to see Lamar Odom (five points, nine rebounds, two steals, three blocks, 24 minutes) do much more, many more times before I put him on a watch list in the vast majority of formats.
Manic Mullens
Give me all of your Byron Mullens panic. I get it, he’s not that good, but he’s also not nearly as bad as many people would like you to think. An easy target playing the shooting guard role on offense most of the time, he is called soft and on defense he’s not delivering highlight-reel blocks. Over the past two weeks he has been clinging to 14-team value, but that takes into account his worst slump that included an injury-shorted game for good measure. He’s still a top-100 value on the year and what goes down must go up, and we saw signs of that as Mullens woke up from a dreadful first half to finish with 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting, two threes, eight boards, two assists, and one block. Even with Bismack Biyombo (39 minutes, 10 points, nine boards, two steals, no blocks) stepping up, the only remaining big men are DeSagana Diop, Brendan Haywood, and Tyrus Thomas. The Bobcats run much of their offense through Mullens, and he’s going to compete on defense well enough to keep a substantial role barring a massive face-plant.
Jeff Taylor (15 minutes, zero points) might have turned back into a pumpkin last night, while the bench triumvirate of Ben Gordon (eight points, 3-of-11 FGs), Ramon Sessions (11 points, 3-of-10 FGs, three assists, and Gerald Henderson (12 points, four boards, two assists, 4-of-9 FGs) all struggled to gain traction with none of them topping 24 minutes. I like them in the following order: Henderson, Sessions, Gordon. Sessions and Gordon can be dropped in 12-14 team formats, while Henderson should be held a little bit to see if he can retake his starting position from Taylor.
Gushing Media Overreactions – Warriors Edition
The Warriors beat the Heat last night and it wasn’t hard to see it coming, as they’ve been playing with confidence and the Heat could care less at this time of the year. True to that oversimplified thought process, the Heat played relaxed basketball and got sniped. They fell asleep so bad on the game’s final play that Draymond Green was allowed to easily score the game-winning bucket, which prompted all sorts of back-scratching tweets from media gushing over Mark Jackson. I’m calling it here right now – if the Warriors make the playoffs you can pretty much write in Jackson’s name for Coach of the Year, which is typically reserved for unproven coaches that ride young teams to improved records despite making stupid mistakes by the bushel. This, of course, makes him perfect for the award.
Klay Thompson was the beneficiary of the lax Heat defense as he put up 27 points on 11-of-21 shooting with five threes, seven boards, four assists, two steals, and one block. I basically dared you to move him at your own risks, and this is why. He’s a great shooter playing in an offense with guys that can find him and he has as much leash as anybody in the league. David Lee went for 22 and 13 and is playing well enough offensively that his defensive lapses are being swept under the rug.
Harrison Barnes (18 minutes, eight points, three boards) is taking a step back but he’ll eventually get another bite at the apple. As long as the Warriors are winning and Lee is scoring, it’s bad news for Carl Landry (four points, three boards, 18 minutes) because Jackson and GSW ownership can fight back some of the criticism for championing Lee. Jarrett Jack (20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two threes, one steal, 31 minutes) is showing why he needs to be on the floor and should be owned in all 12-team formats with late-round value on the year. He might slow down, but with upside in the event of a Stephen Curry ankle injury in tow there’s more than enough meat to that bone.
Draymond Green is stealing minutes from the whole bunch in his defensive stopper role, and aside from the game-winner he had seven points, seven boards, two steals, and a three in 30 minutes. He won’t get this much run every night but on nights that he does there will be some fantasy losers, which were Barnes and Landry tonight.
One thing to keep an eye on is that entering last night the Warriors had beaten teams with a combined 45 percent winning percentage, and in their much ballyhooed four-game road winning streak those teams had won just 36 percent of their games. Naturally, I’m happy about my Warriors winning and they’re playing well, but when they start playing solid competition more often things won’t be this good. I wouldn’t change my approach too much knowing that, but if trends start to emerge (such as Landry resuming his role when David Lee cools off) be ready to react.
Late-Arriving Team
The Heat had one guy playing defense last night, LeBron James, and when that happens it’s a recipe for failure. Dwyane Wade was a turnstile most of the night, but owners are just happy he came away from a potential concussion unscathed. He left during the second quarter after taking a shot to the dome and started the second half, finishing with 14 points on 5-of-11 shooting, four rebounds, five assists, and three steals. Chris Bosh played less defense than David Lee, which is saying something, but again owners don’t care when he’s posting 21 points, 13 boards and a full stat line. LeBron had 31 points and a full line to go with a shoulder injury that shouldn’t be serious, and Ray Allen hit 6-of-10 shots for 14 points, four rebounds, four assists, one three. He and Shane Battier combined for one of the ugliest last-second defensive possessions you’ll ever see, and it had nothing to do with any sort of deception by the offense. They just blew it.
Pelican Droppings
The Pelicans gave the Thunder a run for their money last night, but eventually took a four-point loss. Austin Rivers started and scored 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting with two rebounds, four assists, one steal, and two threes in 38 minutes. It should tell you all you need to know about his season that this and his less spicy effort on Tuesday are causing owners to keep tabs on him. He needs to take much larger steps forward to be worth adding in most standard 8- and 9-cat formats. Al-Farouq Aminu started again with middling results, scoring eight points with six rebounds and a steal in 22 minutes. Just watch him for now until he gets his confidence back. Anthony Davis (11 points, four rebounds, one steal, one block) came off the bench and played 28 minutes, and it’s not surprising he struggled on the tail-end of the back-to-back after taking time off for his ankle injury.
Thunder beat writers grumbled about Scott Brooks’ rotations tonight and it almost cost the team a win, but what else is new? Serge Ibaka was messed with in a seven-point, six-rebound, three-block effort in 23 minutes, but we need to see more shenanigans from Brooks before we’ll get overly worried here. Now that folks have gotten a taste of what Ibaka is capable of he won’t be able to pull the rug out without facing heavier-than-normal scrutiny. Kevin Durant scored 35 points in a typical effort, Russell Westbrook had 14 points, four boards, and nine assists, and Kevin Martin completed the comeback with 17 points, six rebounds, two threes, and a steal.
Right Back on Schedule
Both Jeremy Lin and James Harden were able to play despite a pair of ankle injuries, and both were productive for owners. Harden had 31 points on 10-of-20 shooting with a full, albeit mild stat line by his standards. Lin scored 10 points with five rebounds, six assists, and one block, falling back into his pattern of versatile, mid-level lines in his 28-35 minute role.
Patrick Patterson got back in owners’ good graces with 13 points, four rebounds, three assists, three blocks, and one three, while Omer Asik had an efficient night by his standards with nine points on 3-of-6 shooting (3-of-4 FTs), 16 rebounds, one block, and just two turnovers. Carlos Delfino hasn’t come through for owners taking the chance on him this week, scoring just two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 14 minutes. That’s the life of a streaky bench shooter. Chandler Parsons is back to doing his thing, posting 18 points on 7-of-14 shooting with eight rebounds, three assists, three treys, and one steal in the Rockets’ home win over the lowly Wizards.
Wonder Wall
Nene said before the game that he was still adjusting to playing in back-to-back games and in the last one “he couldn’t jump.” So while Emeka Okafor (19 points, six rebounds, two steals, two blocks) got hot in his return to his hometown, I’m still not too worried about Kevin Seraphin’s 18-minute, four-point, four-rebound, one-steal, one-block night. Both Nene and Okafor are prime injury risks, and I’ve always viewed Seraphin as a second-half of the year guy anyway. I’m not dropping him for Miles under any circumstance, but Ed Davis would tempt me and I could go either way. If my fantasy squad could use a shakeup or some short-term production, I’d probably opt for Davis. But any scenario taking the long-view trends toward Seraphin with Andrea Bargnani’s timetable still cloudy and Amir Johnson’s impact still looming.
John Wall will have his injured left knee examined on Friday and it will be a turning point for his season, for better or worse. Jordan Crawford (17 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three treys) and Bradley Beal (20 points, four rebounds, six assists, two steals, three treys) are must-own players right now and Beal is a few good games away from being a must-start guy. Martell Webster (16 points, seven boards) might be worth a look for spot-action in deeper formats, but he has enough issues with production and staying healthy that I’m not too excited about his long-term prospects. Nene scored 13 points with nine boards, three assists, and no steals or blocks in his 23 minutes, and he needs to cross the 25-minute threshold, produce, and play in back to back games before I’m moving on him in standard 8- and 9-cat formats.
Nugget Inertia
The Nuggets lost a tight one in Minnesota last night, and at 11-12 they can’t seem to get all of their pieces moving in the right direction at once. Ty Lawson hit just 6-of-15 shots but finished with 17 points, four rebounds, and 11 assists, while Andre Iguodala continued to plummet with two points on 1-of-9 shooting, five rebounds, seven assists, one steal and one block. I looked at all of his misses from last night, and he looks a bit lackadaisical, a bit lethargic, and a bit unlucky all in one. My preseason concern about he and Lawson having difficulty sharing the ball isn’t evident just yet, but it’s telling that the two haven’t been able to get hot at the same time and that many on the team have struggled, in general.
Kenneth Faried bounced back from a very slow night to score 26 points with 14 rebounds and three steals. Owners should know by now not to panic. Danilo Gallinari hit 9-of-13 shots (including four treys) for 24 points and needs to do this much more to assuage owners’ fears that he’s going to be a mess. Corey Brewer scored 14 points with two threes and a block, but that’s cutting things pretty thin for owners trying to ride the wave in standard leagues. He’s not must-own material with lines like that.
Crazy Beats Consistent
The Suns squeaked out a last-second win over the Grizzlies when Goran Dragic (12 points, five rebounds, eight assists) got fairly lucky on a dribble-drive, closing the deal with 0.5 seconds left on a multi-pivoted layup. Shannon Brown needed somebody to remind him that he’s Shannon Brown as he hit just 5-of-19 terribly conceived shots for 15 points to go with seven rebounds. Give him a look while his volume is higher. Marcin Gortat made some decent plays late but the numbers still aren’t back, and he finished with 10 points, eight rebounds, and a steal in 34 minutes. I have a feeling when the ice thaws between he and Gentry we’ll see the Gortat of old, and not until then.
Jared Dudley reminded us of why folks had him ranked as a solid late round value to begin the year, scoring 15 points on 7-of-14 shooting with nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, and one three in 43 minutes. I’ve noted his slow starts a million times around here, and I have no problem taking a flier on him in 12-team formats. Markieff Morris (11 points, four rebounds, two steals, two blocks, one three) moved to the bench and played well, so Gentry brought him right back into the starting lineup at the half. It’s a mess, but Morris is worth owning with the hopes he lands on the right side of Gentry’s plans. Morris’ current counterpart, Luis Scola, struggled mightily with four points, one rebound, one steal, and one block in 13 minutes. He was humming to start the year and had recently picked things up, so holding him until we can figure out what went wrong is a decent play. Michael Beasley is so bad I’m not even going to tell you how bad he did.
The Grizzlies were predictable, though Mike Conley’s slump continued to irk owners. Conley scored seven points on 3-of-8 shooting with six assists, two steals, and a three, and I am zero percent concerned about this. Rudy Gay went for 21 and 11 with two steals and two blocks, Zach Randolph went for 18 and 10, and Marc Gasol had six blocks to go with 15 points and just two rebounds in the loss.
Return of Rubio
Ricky Rubio’s return is reportedly coming on Saturday, so we’ll get to see the new-look lineup and rotation that I think will work something like Alexey Shved at SG for about 23-27 mpg, Luke Ridnour and J.J. Barea each logging about 20-24 mpg in either guard slot, and Rubio starting off at 24 mpg and slowly rising. I think the guards will bleed into the small forward slot and Dante Cunningham will play swing minutes backing up all three frontcourt positions. Andrei Kirilenko will play as many minutes as he can handle, but if things are going well that will be in the 28-32 mpg range. Derrick Williams will be a DNP-CD threat and Greg Stiemsma will see his nominal minutes against penetrating teams and teams with larger frontcourts. Malcolm Lee left last night’s game with a right knee injury and I would be somewhat shocked if he kept a rotation slot when Rubio returns, healthy or not.
Shved, Barea, and Ridnour will all see their minutes fluctuate within the flow of each game, but this framework will allow each of them to have a shot at low-end 12-14 team value. I like them in this order for current production in standard 8- and 9-cat formats: Shved, Ridnour, Barea. In formats that don’t penalize bad field goal percentage, I like Barea over Ridnour. Over the long-term, Shved is my preferred play because he has big-time upside and might already be better than Ridnour (he’s already better than Barea). He’s also the most durable, with Barea holding the long-term edge over Ridnour in that category as well. And yes, Ricky needs to be owned in all formats.
Last night’s pre-Rubio return game looked fairly normal. Ridnour had 15 points, two threes, and four assists, Nikola Pekovic went for 22 and 11 with two blocks, Kirilenko scored 18 points with four rebounds, two assists, four steals, and one block, and Kevin Love tried to do too much and failed following his contractual outburst in a 3-of-17 shooting effort. Love finished with eight points, 14 rebounds, one assist and nothing else. Shved scored eight points on 3-of-10 shooting (no threes) with two rebounds, five assists, and two steals, and Barea got hot with 17 points, five rebounds, eight assists, and two steals in the win.
Ersane in the Membrane
Larry Sanders was a late scratch due to an illness, which is what happens when the opponent in question is the Sacramento Kings. Ekpe Udoh (wrist) did not play and Mike Dunleavy (knee) dressed but did not play, which cools me off on the idea of dropping him a little bit. I'm only looking at average to above-average free agent pickups in 12-team formats if I'm looking at a drop.
The big story out of Milwaukee though is the re-emergence of Ersan Ilyasova, who took advantage of the absences and the dreadful defense of the Kings to post 16 points, a season-high 14 boards, two steals, two blocks, and a three in just 24 minutes. I’ve managed to hang on everywhere I own him, and as readers know I’ve had this week pegged as my final evaluation of sorts. He’s passing right now with flying colors, so it will take a major fall-off to knock me off my ownership. Marquis Daniels put up numbers with 10 points, six boards, and three assists, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute had a season-high 17 points with six boards in 26 minutes. I give very little credibility to lines posted against the Kings, so all of them essentially maintain the status quo after tonight’s easy win.
Train Wreck
DeMarcus Cousins was suspended for punching O.J. Mayo in the crotchal region on Monday, and even his most ardent supporters in Sacramento are fed up with his antics. He spent yesterday on Twitter talking about how everybody has it out for him, and team-sponsored Sacramento talk radio spent the last 48 hours teeing off on him. It looks like the nice-guy approach isn’t working, but Keith Smart knows what his pay grade is and he’s not going to make any major moves here. And DeMarcus will continue to do what he wants, including act as an uber-talented good news/bad news player for the Kings.
Marcus Thornton also missed last night’s game due to the health of his mother, and fantasy owners should most certainly cut him some slack for his recent lack of production. He is going to try to return to the team for Friday’s game in OKC, but that’s not going to be a foregone conclusion. As for the idea of dropping him, I just wouldn’t do it. He’s a top scorer in this league with a fairly friendly fantasy game and eventually whether it’s by injury or Keith Smart accidentally getting the smart basketball players on the floor, he’s going to be relied upon once again. Owners can’t find that kind of upside on the wire too often, so just stay the course.
Tyreke Evans (knee) returned to action but decided on his own that he wanted to come off the bench, which should be a clue about who wears the pants in Sacramento right now. He played 23 minutes and immediately went into ball-hoggy bad-shot mode and finished with 17 points on 6-of-15 shooting, seven rebounds, two assists, and five turnovers. Evans needs to play for a no-nonsense coach with standing and maybe he’ll tap into half the potential he has at the moment.
Francisco Garcia predictably disappeared last night after a big 25-point Monday, scoring three points on 1-of-5 shooting with five boards and two blocks. He should be shooting threes for a contender and nowhere near this train wreck. Jason Thompson sucked up Cousins’ touches and finished with eight points, 15 boards, two steals, and a block, and is still worth owning in most formats. John Salmons played much worse than his 16-point, one-assist, two-block line suggested, and while he’s playing better than last year’s disaster he is a mess on both sides of the court on most nights. Travis Outlaw (six points, four rebounds, 1-of-6 FGs) started, played 16 minutes, and is still one of the worst contracts in the NBA. Aaron Brooks is regressing every night, giving up points on defense left and right and at times single-handedly stalling the offense. He hit 3-of-11 shots for 10 points, six assists, one steal, and one block and he played much, much worse than those numbers suggested.
Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette combined for 26 minutes while the Kings made a mockery of NBA basketball, and both looked good during their time on the court. I’ve bagged on Jimmer’s defense all year, and it’s still bad and his offense has come in garbage scenarios, but at least when the Kings trot out the duo the team looks like they’ve played the game before.
Turning Back the Clock
It sounds like Stephen Jackson will return sometime in the next week or so, and then Kawhi Leonard will return sometime after that, but Gary Neal didn’t feel like waiting to fade into oblivion in a five-point, 2-of-9 shooting night. Tim Duncan turned back the clock to post 22 points, 21 boards, one steal, and six blocks, as the first round value rolls on. Tony Parker scored 22 points with seven assists, and Manu Ginobili had eight points, six boards, five assists, two threes, and one steal. It wasn’t enough as the Jazz handled their business at home and won on a Mo Williams game-winning shot.
Carry on My Hayward Son
It was a good thing that Mo hit that shot, as his shot selection and game management left a lot to be desired down the stretch. He finished with just eight points on 3-of-9 shooting, three rebounds, and four assists. Randy Foye kept things going with 13 points and three treys, and Al Jefferson scored 21 points with four boards and four assists.
The fantasy developments on the Jazz side were the return of Derrick Favors (foot), and the big game by Gordon Hayward. Dealing with Hayward first, he was big late and finished with 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, four threes, and a block in his 29 minutes. Regular readers will know that I’m the guy with his finger in the dike over here, and this is the style of line that I envisioned for Hayward toward the second half of the season. I have him as a must-own player in all formats for the chance he duplicates last season’s late top-40 run, but one read of our game blurb from last night will tell the other side of that story.
Favors’ return was mild, as expected, as he posted six points, two boards, and one steal in 12 minutes. Paul Millsap, on the other hand, was as mild as a ghost pepper with 24 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, one steal, and one block. This would be a good time to try to move Millsap, as Favors should ramp up his minutes and Ty Corbin lacks the flexibility to ensure they don’t come out of Millsap’s bucket. I’m not down on Millsap’s overall value, as I think the Jazz will eventually get their heads screwed on straight and go back to Millsap consistently, but we are undoubtedly at a peak on his graph.
Thursday Night Lights
CHA @ ATL: The throwaway game will bring a lot of fantasy focus to the Bobcats’ side of the box, as Byron Mullens and Gerald Henderson owners want to see where things are heading. Bismack Biyombo gets a chance to show whether or not he has any staying power, too. I haven’t seen Kyle Korver available in too many of my leagues, but I’d be all about picking him up before he gets back to his pre-injury form.
LAL @ NYK: J.R. Smith’s (back) status is “up in the air” as of yesterday morning. I can’t imagine he wants to miss the Lake Show. We’ll be waiting to hear about Pau Gasol’s status, and if you need a primer on tonight’s game read the first part of my Dose from yesterday. Since then, Kobe went on ESPN and told Stephen Smith that he was pretty sure Mike D'Antoni would be changing his system to match the personnel.
SA @ POR: Nicolas Batum (back) went through a full practice yesterday, but Terry Stotts said he is not yet “100 percent.” Wesley Matthews (hip) did not practice, and between the two he has the better shot of not playing on paper. In reality, Matthews is a nut-bag when it comes to playing through injuries. Sasha Pavlovic was the spot-starting winner last time out, though he’ll be a risky play whether it’s one or both starters out ahead of him. Damian Lillard (ankle) didn’t practice but he said he would play and it sounds like his absence was precautionary. It would be funny if Pop rested his big guns on the tail-end of a back-to-back, but it seems like a little much for him to test those waters after DNP-gate last week.
I’ll be chatting tonight at 9 PM ET, so bring your questions and together we’ll get ready for Friday night.