This week’s Saturday Dose uses Friday’s 12-game schedule as a springboard for discussions of player values, rest-of-season outlooks, and much more. Tucked in the middle is a brief interlude about recent trade-chatter, which is dominated by the Jazz frontcourt. Let’s begin.
Deron Williams scored 20 points with six rebounds, five assists, two steals and only one turnover on Friday. He also knocked down three 3-pointers, but shot just 7-of-20 overall in a disappointing loss to the Wizards (who have won three straight). I would use games like this to trade D-Will, in light of his season-long struggles -- he's averaging 16.8 points, 7.7 assists and 0.9 steals, all of which are his lowest totals since the 2006-07 season with Utah, and even in eight-cat leagues he's been a mid-third-round value (just behind Mike Conley on a per-game basis, and just ahead of Jameer Nelson).
Dwight Howard was able to play in back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday, which is very encouraging. He was listless vs. the Celtics but played with greater energy vs. the Bobcats on Friday, notching 12 points, 11 rebounds, one steal and three blocks in 38 minutes. These aren't the numbers his owners expect to see but at least he's healthy enough to play. Personally, between his poison-pill FT shooting and the torn labrum in his shoulder, I wouldn't stop shopping him in fantasy leagues until I found a trade. I was similarly bearish on Joakim Noah last week – Noah has already returned but he’s admitted that his foot still hurts, and generally I prefer to avoid the risk of a major setback with either Dwight or Joakim. With both guys active, it can’t hurt to send out some lofty trade offers.
Elsewhere for L.A., Earl Clark finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds, two steals and one block vs. Charlotte's woeful frontcourt (see below). He continues to thrive as the starting PF, and he's a must-start fantasy option with Pau Gasol (foot) out for at least 6-8 weeks. Clark even hit 1-of-4 shots from downtown on Friday, and the 6'10" forward has quietly drained 15-of-35 treys on the season (43 percent). Speaking of distance shooting...Jodie Meeks hit all four of his 3-pointers on Friday, scoring 14 points with four rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes. Fantasy owners should view him as a better-than-average perimeter specialist.
Gerald Henderson broke out vs. the Lakers with 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, three steals and one block, all numbers which set or approached his season highs. He played nearly 40 minutes and has double-digit points in every game in February, so don't hesitate to pick him up if he's still available. He has a fairly well-rounded game, though 3-pointers and assists have been conspicuously absent in recent weeks.
Byron Mullens was similarly productive, scoring 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting with one 3-pointer, 12 rebounds, one steal and one block. Among the league's big men, only Ryan Anderson and Kevin Love have attempted more 3s per game than Mullens this season -- he averages 1.4 triples per game, though he's hitting at just 31.6 percent. Flaws notwithstanding, he is in a great position to succeed since the Bobcats are desperately thin at PF and they need his scoring in the worst way. His owners should be mindful of the trade rumors involving Kris Humphries and Ben Gordon, however, as Hump would almost certainly crimp Mullens' value.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned from his concussion with four points, 10 rebounds, one steal and two blocks. I was watching the game when he suffered his concussion and it was a scary scene, so it's great to see him healthy. We're still waiting for him to reliably produce in fantasy leagues, but you can do worse for an end-of-bench sleeper (and any trade sending out Ben Gordon would probably be good for MKG, since Mike Dunlap could eschew some of his three-guard lineups in favor of more traditional rotations).
Bradley Beal returned with three points and four boards on Friday, shooting 1-of-5 in 18 minutes off the bench. His return dropped starting SG Garrett Temple down to just 16 minutes of action, while Jordan Crawford picked up a DNP-CD. I'm always leery of trusting rookies for fantasy value, especially when they're shooting under 39 percent on the season, but it's hard to overlook Beal's hot stretch before he went down with the wrist injury -- in 15 January games he averaged 15.1 points on 45 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and only 1.3 turnovers in 33 minutes per game. Those numbers are good enough for a stash.
Martell Webster's quiet contributions continued with 16 points, three 3s, four boards, two assists, three steals and zero turnovers. He played 33 minutes while Trevor Ariza played just under 30 minutes, and I'm not sure who to trust here -- Randy Wittman reportedly is willing to start Ariza eventually, and Bradley Beal's return doesn't bode well, but owners should simply roll with Webster until he drops off.
The Raptors' frontcourt is worth revisiting after Friday's game. Starting center Aaron Gray had two points and five boards in 14 minutes, starting PF Amir Johnson had 14 & 14 with three assists, one steal and two blocks, recently returned Andrea Bargnani scored 14 points with two rebounds, two steals and four turnovers in 29 minutes, and Jonas Valanciunas had 14 & 13 with two blocks in 26 minutes. Phew. Gray can be ruled out of the equation immediately, of course, but the other three guys are all worth owning. For rest-of-season value, I'd rank them 1) Amir Johnson (terrific on both ends of the court all season, plays hurt, role seems secure), 2) Andrea Bargnani (struggling this year but he's being/will be showcased for a trade, value could increase overnight), 3) Jonas Valanciunas (terrific upside, flailing Raptors bound to focus on development in the final weeks).
Paul George continued to build up his career numbers on Friday, pouring in 26 points, five 3-pointers, 14 rebounds, five assists and one steal in a tough loss to the visiting Raptors. As I've said before, I doubt whether Danny Granger's return will have a big impact on George's overall value -- the guy can fill up any category on a given night and he's established himself as option 1a. for the Pacers (with option 1b. being David West, who scored 30 points on Friday). Granger's return is far more likely to ruin Lance Stephenson's value. Stephenson, who is the fourth-most improved player this season in terms of player efficiency, had 11 points, two 3s, three assists and three steals in 39 minutes vs. the Raptors.
Tony Parker scored 31 points with eight assists on Friday, but without Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan the Spurs fell on the road to the Pistons, snapping their 11-game win streak. The biggest story for fantasy owners is the brilliant play of both Danny Green (15 points on five 3-pointers, two assists, one steal, two turnovers, zero turnovers) and Kawhi Leonard (16 points, two 3s, five boards, three steals, one block, zero turnovers). I have steadfastly recommended that owners hang onto Kawhi, even during his longer-than-expected absence early this season, and we're now seeing why -- according to BasketballMonster.com, Leonard is the overall No. 8 player in nine-cat leagues over the past two weeks, and Green isn't far behind at No. 13.
This week’s Saturday Dose uses Friday’s 12-game schedule as a springboard for discussions of player values, rest-of-season outlooks, and much more. Tucked in the middle is a brief interlude about recent trade-chatter, which is dominated by the Jazz frontcourt. Let’s begin.
Deron Williams scored 20 points with six rebounds, five assists, two steals and only one turnover on Friday. He also knocked down three 3-pointers, but shot just 7-of-20 overall in a disappointing loss to the Wizards (who have won three straight). I would use games like this to trade D-Will, in light of his season-long struggles -- he's averaging 16.8 points, 7.7 assists and 0.9 steals, all of which are his lowest totals since the 2006-07 season with Utah, and even in eight-cat leagues he's been a mid-third-round value (just behind Mike Conley on a per-game basis, and just ahead of Jameer Nelson).
Dwight Howard was able to play in back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday, which is very encouraging. He was listless vs. the Celtics but played with greater energy vs. the Bobcats on Friday, notching 12 points, 11 rebounds, one steal and three blocks in 38 minutes. These aren't the numbers his owners expect to see but at least he's healthy enough to play. Personally, between his poison-pill FT shooting and the torn labrum in his shoulder, I wouldn't stop shopping him in fantasy leagues until I found a trade. I was similarly bearish on Joakim Noah last week – Noah has already returned but he’s admitted that his foot still hurts, and generally I prefer to avoid the risk of a major setback with either Dwight or Joakim. With both guys active, it can’t hurt to send out some lofty trade offers.
Elsewhere for L.A., Earl Clark finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds, two steals and one block vs. Charlotte's woeful frontcourt (see below). He continues to thrive as the starting PF, and he's a must-start fantasy option with Pau Gasol (foot) out for at least 6-8 weeks. Clark even hit 1-of-4 shots from downtown on Friday, and the 6'10" forward has quietly drained 15-of-35 treys on the season (43 percent). Speaking of distance shooting...Jodie Meeks hit all four of his 3-pointers on Friday, scoring 14 points with four rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes. Fantasy owners should view him as a better-than-average perimeter specialist.
Gerald Henderson broke out vs. the Lakers with 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, three steals and one block, all numbers which set or approached his season highs. He played nearly 40 minutes and has double-digit points in every game in February, so don't hesitate to pick him up if he's still available. He has a fairly well-rounded game, though 3-pointers and assists have been conspicuously absent in recent weeks.
Byron Mullens was similarly productive, scoring 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting with one 3-pointer, 12 rebounds, one steal and one block. Among the league's big men, only Ryan Anderson and Kevin Love have attempted more 3s per game than Mullens this season -- he averages 1.4 triples per game, though he's hitting at just 31.6 percent. Flaws notwithstanding, he is in a great position to succeed since the Bobcats are desperately thin at PF and they need his scoring in the worst way. His owners should be mindful of the trade rumors involving Kris Humphries and Ben Gordon, however, as Hump would almost certainly crimp Mullens' value.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned from his concussion with four points, 10 rebounds, one steal and two blocks. I was watching the game when he suffered his concussion and it was a scary scene, so it's great to see him healthy. We're still waiting for him to reliably produce in fantasy leagues, but you can do worse for an end-of-bench sleeper (and any trade sending out Ben Gordon would probably be good for MKG, since Mike Dunlap could eschew some of his three-guard lineups in favor of more traditional rotations).
Bradley Beal returned with three points and four boards on Friday, shooting 1-of-5 in 18 minutes off the bench. His return dropped starting SG Garrett Temple down to just 16 minutes of action, while Jordan Crawford picked up a DNP-CD. I'm always leery of trusting rookies for fantasy value, especially when they're shooting under 39 percent on the season, but it's hard to overlook Beal's hot stretch before he went down with the wrist injury -- in 15 January games he averaged 15.1 points on 45 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and only 1.3 turnovers in 33 minutes per game. Those numbers are good enough for a stash.
Martell Webster's quiet contributions continued with 16 points, three 3s, four boards, two assists, three steals and zero turnovers. He played 33 minutes while Trevor Ariza played just under 30 minutes, and I'm not sure who to trust here -- Randy Wittman reportedly is willing to start Ariza eventually, and Bradley Beal's return doesn't bode well, but owners should simply roll with Webster until he drops off.
The Raptors' frontcourt is worth revisiting after Friday's game. Starting center Aaron Gray had two points and five boards in 14 minutes, starting PF Amir Johnson had 14 & 14 with three assists, one steal and two blocks, recently returned Andrea Bargnani scored 14 points with two rebounds, two steals and four turnovers in 29 minutes, and Jonas Valanciunas had 14 & 13 with two blocks in 26 minutes. Phew. Gray can be ruled out of the equation immediately, of course, but the other three guys are all worth owning. For rest-of-season value, I'd rank them 1) Amir Johnson (terrific on both ends of the court all season, plays hurt, role seems secure), 2) Andrea Bargnani (struggling this year but he's being/will be showcased for a trade, value could increase overnight), 3) Jonas Valanciunas (terrific upside, flailing Raptors bound to focus on development in the final weeks).
Paul George continued to build up his career numbers on Friday, pouring in 26 points, five 3-pointers, 14 rebounds, five assists and one steal in a tough loss to the visiting Raptors. As I've said before, I doubt whether Danny Granger's return will have a big impact on George's overall value -- the guy can fill up any category on a given night and he's established himself as option 1a. for the Pacers (with option 1b. being David West, who scored 30 points on Friday). Granger's return is far more likely to ruin Lance Stephenson's value. Stephenson, who is the fourth-most improved player this season in terms of player efficiency, had 11 points, two 3s, three assists and three steals in 39 minutes vs. the Raptors.
Tony Parker scored 31 points with eight assists on Friday, but without Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan the Spurs fell on the road to the Pistons, snapping their 11-game win streak. The biggest story for fantasy owners is the brilliant play of both Danny Green (15 points on five 3-pointers, two assists, one steal, two turnovers, zero turnovers) and Kawhi Leonard (16 points, two 3s, five boards, three steals, one block, zero turnovers). I have steadfastly recommended that owners hang onto Kawhi, even during his longer-than-expected absence early this season, and we're now seeing why -- according to BasketballMonster.com, Leonard is the overall No. 8 player in nine-cat leagues over the past two weeks, and Green isn't far behind at No. 13.
The Pistons' upset win was propelled by a big game from Greg Monroe -- 26 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, two steals and one block. I anticipated a nice boost for Monroe now that he has a legitimate pass-first PG in Jose Calderon (seven points, eight dimes), and the early returns have been very promising. Brandon Knight has also taken well to his newfound SG role, and on Friday he scored 24 points on 10-of-21 shooting, with two 3s, five rebounds, and two assists.
Owners starved for 3-point shooting should keep a close eye on Charlie Villanueva -- he scored 21 points with five 3s, eight boards and two blocks in 33 minutes vs. the Spurs, and could play a big role now that Andre Drummond (fractured vertebrae) is out of commission. CV is also owed another $8.6 million next season, the final year of his horrendous contract, so the Pistons have additional incentive to squeeze production out of him. (They may ultimately buy him out or amnesty him, as I believe they still have their amnesty provision.)
Arron Afflalo returned with an exclamation point on Friday, scoring 23 points on 9-of-17 FGs, with two 3s, four rebounds and three assists. He got a boost from J.J. Redick's shoulder injury, which kept him out on the sidelines, but Afflalo should be locked into 32+ minutes regardless of Redick's status. Nikola Vucevic's assault on the record books continued with 25 points (12-of-19 shooting), 13 rebounds, three assists and one block. It's hard to be hyperbolic about how well he's playing, and the sadist in me enjoys watching 76ers fans fret over his brilliant play this season.
Moe Harkless played 43 minutes on Friday, again benefitting from the fact that J.J. Redick wasn't available, and he finished with nine points (4-of-5 FGs), four boards, three dimes, one steal and two blocks. It's the under-the-radar steals and blocks that make Harkless such an intriguing option, as well as the fact that Orlando may trade Redick (clearing more minutes) and they'd be crazy not to continue giving Harkless big minutes at the end of a lost season. The same logic holds true for Andrew Nicholson, who on Friday racked up 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting, eight boards, three assists and two blocks.
The Cavaliers beat Orlando on Friday despite the fine performances mentioned above, as they were aided by a solid bench effort from new acquisitions Wayne Ellington (14 points) and Marreese Speights (18 points). Speights has been good since joining the Cavs but I'm concerned about his playing time, which has dipped to around 20 minutes in the past two games, though on Friday he somehow attempted 13 field goals and 12 free throws in just 22 minutes.
The Hornets beat the Hawks on Friday for their third straight win, riding big games from Greivis Vasquez (solid triple-double with three 3-pointers), Eric Gordon (27 points but little else) and Robin Lopez (17 points, eight boards, three assists, three blocks, zero turnovers). This marks six straight games with double-figure points for RoLo, who continues to provide late-middle round value despite ranking 45th out of 52 eligible centers in total rebound rate (49th in defensive rebound rate).
The Suns were a total mess vs. the Thunder. Goran Dragic had 19 points and six assists but he was the only player to crack 30 minutes. Jared Dudley had three points in 14 minutes in a start at SG, Marcin Gortat had two points and five rebounds in 26 minutes, and Luis Scola had six points and one rebound in 17 minutes. Fittingly, Michael Beasley led the team with 25 points off the bench, going 10-of-16 from the field with three 3s, seven rebounds, three assists and one steal. I've made plenty of cracks about B-Easy's lack of reliability, but he's worth a look if you need scoring with a dash of 3s and rebounds. I'm compelled to note, however, that in the past seven games he has 21 turnovers vs. a combined 18 assists, steals and blocks. He's almost guaranteed a spot in the top-10 for this season's Eddy Curry Line, as created/explained by Matt Buser.
Wesley Matthews expended most of his energy defensively vs. the Rockets, and wound up with just two points on 1-of-9 shooting. It's a fluky game with no lasting implications. On the positive side of the ledger, Nicolas Batum scored 24 points on 7-of-12 FGs, 4-of-8 threes, and 6-of-6 FTs. He also had three dimes and three blocks, but the solid shooting is most critical for his owners in light of his ongoing wrist injury. He's not healthy yet, but the All-Star break is looming and this game gives me reason to hope he'll be able to keep chugging away without any DNPs.
The Rockets improved to 28-24 with their victory vs. Portland, led by James Harden's 35 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists. He made 13-of-16 shots overall, including four 3-pointers, and continues to be the steal of most fantasy drafts. Chandler Parsons was solid with 20 points and four 3s, and nobody should be sleeping on Patrick Patterson -- he had 16 points, six boards and two blocks on Friday, and he's scored double-digit points in each of his past six games, with a steadily increasing role ahead of Marcus Morris (five points, 10 minutes).
Dwyane Wade had 20 points and four steals as part of a nice line on Friday, despite being iffy to play with the flu, an ailment that knocked Chris Bosh and Ray Allen out of the lineup. Their absence hardly mattered against the weakened Clippers, especially with LeBron James effortlessly scoring 30 points on 9-of-11 FGs and 8-of-11 FTs, and Mario Chalmers knocking down five triples.
Chris Paul (knee) was rusty in his return, scoring three points with two assists before taking a seat after less than 20 minutes of action. Blake Griffin (hamstring) wasn't much better with 13 points, five rebounds, four TOs and four fouls in 24 minutes. They'll get things turned around in no time, but owners of Eric Bledsoe (28 minutes) can only hope that a trade boosts him into a starting PG job, or at least a role with 30+ minutes.
Talk Talk
As Pliny the Elder once wrote, "Take [NBA trade rumors] with a grain of salt." Yes, the antidote to endless speculation is a healthy dose of skepticism, but another well-worn phrase has also proved its merit in the past few weeks – “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.” Rudy Gay and Jose Calderon had been constant sources of trade rumors, and both were traded well before the deadline. For more about guys likely to be traded, watch for Adam Levitan's column on Monday. For now, I'll limit myself to some recent developments.
The 76ers are "exploring" deals for Evan Turner, according to ESPN's Marc Stein, though there are no teams or players connected to him...yet.
The Mavericks would reportedly “prefer” to keep Shawn Marion through the trade deadline, but rest assured that Mark Cuban will exhaust all avenues to land an impact player in the coming weeks – he’s positioned his team well for the offseason but Dirk is impatient and Cuban is willing to swing for the fences.
ESPN reported on Friday that a deal involving Kris Humphries and Ben Gordon has been discussed by the Nets and Bobcats. Gordon is owed $13.2 million next season (a no-brainer player option in the final year of his contract) while Humphries is owed $12 million (also in the final year of his contract). The deal works on paper, therefore, and it would give Charlotte's roster some much-needed balance and frontcourt heft. For those of you who are smart enough not to watch the Bobcats, here is a quick fact list:
Charlotte is 29th in the NBA in rebounding rate (47.9 percent).
Charlotte's frontcourt is the least-efficient in the NBA both offensively and defensively.
Charlotte's backcourt ranks 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.
Charlotte's bench scores 41.6 points per game, tops in the NBA.
As I said...this is a team with an 11-38 record (easily the worst in the league) which has lost nine of its past 10 games, and a roster-balancing deal for Humphries makes plenty of sense on paper. I'm not in favor of stashing him yet, however, unless you're making room for him by cutting dead weight (Andre Drummond, etc.). Ben Gordon's role wouldn't improve if he landed with the Nets, where D-Will and Joe Johnson continue to dominate backcourt minutes, so don't bother with him as a speculative add. One final note...it's conceivable that MarShon Brooks could be included in a deal for Humphries, so keep an eye on him just in case.
Nate Robinson continues to thrive as the Bulls' starting PG, scoring eight points with four rebounds and nine assists vs. Utah. He belongs in all fantasy lineups but there is a dark cloud on the horizon for his owners -- the return of Kirk Hinrich (elbow) will probably move Nate back to the bench, and Derrick Rose's eventual return will further marginalize his value. What's more, everyone knows that Nate's value is temporary so it's futile to try to trade him. Enjoy his production while you can.
Taj Gibson played 31 minutes off the bench and finished with 14 points, eight rebounds, two steals and two blocks, while making 7-of-9 FGs. Like many owners, I spot-started him while Joakim Noah (plantar fasciitis) was sidelined and expected to cut him now that Noah is playing again. Joakim is still playing through pain, however, and with Carlos Boozer's name popping up in trade rumors I'm in favor of keeping Gibson through the trade deadline (Feb 21). Owners in need of shot blocking, take note -- Gibson is averaging 2.8 blocks in the past eight games.
Al Jefferson's season-high 32 points weren't enough for Utah on Friday, despite the fact that he made 15-of-22 FGs while pitching in 13 rebounds, two steals, two blocks and zero turnovers. He and Paul Millsap (21 points on 8-of-14 FGs, three boards, three assists) are both rolling along right now, apparently unbothered by the trade rumors swirling around them. It's unclear who is more likely to be dealt, Big Al or Millsap, and both are on expiring contracts, but I believe Chad Ford's suggestion last month that Utah is "more willing" to part with Jefferson. Derrick Favors is ready for a starting role and needs to be on the court more than Enes Kanter, but pairing Favors with Big Al would likely cause problems for Utah's spacing and ball movement. Speaking of trade speculation…
Luke Ridnour has also been mentioned in trade rumors, but that didn't affect him on Friday, as he scored 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting, with two rebounds, three assists and one steal. He logged 36 minutes and Ricky Rubio played 39 minutes, which left Alexey Shved with a smaller role than usual -- Shved scored eight points with four rebounds, zero assists and one steal in 26 minutes. The rookie is shooting 37.4 percent from the field this season, and just 31.0 percent from downtown, with 4.5 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game.
Ricky Rubio posted 18 points (a season-high) with two rebounds, 11 assists and one steal on Friday, and he even made his only 3-point attempt (just his second 3-pointer of the season). He's finally turning the corner after a disastrously slow start, coming off knee surgery with a minute-limit, and his assists and steals give him obvious appeal since those categories are typically harder to find on the waiver wire. Still, his shooting percentages and turnovers remain a major hurdle in most formats (he had only one turnover on Friday, but made 6-of-14 FGs and 5-of-9 FTs). I cut Rubio a few weeks ago for Kyle Korver in one league, in another league I cut him for Tiago Splitter, and in both cases I'm more than satisfied with the decision. If I owned him today, however, I'd be hesitant to move him for anything short of a homerun. As stated last week, I still think the best idea is to trade him, since his silky highlight-reel plays give him an appeal that isn’t justified by the numbers -- in the past week he's averaging a solid 12.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 1.5 steals, which combined with his other stats gives him...10th-round value in nine-cat leagues. Direct your incredulous complaints to KnausRotoworld@gmail.com.
Derrick Williams is averaging 17.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in the past two games, taking full advantage of extra minutes for the Wolves' banged-up frontcourt, while giving them at least some traction in their transparent attempts to trade him. Even if he's traded to a seemingly ideal situation, I'd probably avoid him -- in 21 starts this season, he's shooting 37.3 percent from the field, 29.8 percent from downtown and 72.9 percent from the FT line. He also averages twice as many turnovers (1.2) as assists (0.6), and doesn't jump out in any category.
With that I have to go dig out my car from about four feet of snow…I live in Maine and we’re in the middle of a wild blizzard. If you were hoping for some discussion of games-played over the remainder of the season, I’m afraid I’ve let you down, but you can always avail yourselves of the Schedule Grid and Schedule Breakdown in the RW Season Pass.