My Name is Jonas

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries or trades and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective or outstanding play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore some of the league’s most interesting rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what LeBron James and Kevin Durant are going to do – it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

For last week’s look at the West, bang it here. This week, the focus is on the Eastern Conference. We’ll start in Toronto, where a Lithuanian prospect is turning heads.

RAPTORS
Position: Power forward
On Sunday, we got a look at what the Raptors’ big-man rotation might look like without both Ed Davis (traded) and Andrea Bargnani (trade candidate), who was sidelined by the flu.

Coach Dwane Casey rolled with a starting frontcourt of Rudy Gay, Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. It was Valanciunas’ first start since fracturing a finger on his shooting hand and he passed the test with flying colors. The 20-year-old Lithuanian 7-footer posted 11 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in 34 minutes. That came on the heels of a 14-point, 13-rebound, two-block outing two nights earlier in Indiana.

The back-to-back performances in two wins have the Raptors buzzing. The Toronto Sun now says Valanciunas is “showing no signs of ever heading back to the bench.” When Casey is deciding between plodding, unathletic, low-upside journeyman Aaron Gray and a No. 5 overall pick with monster potential, there isn’t much hemming and hawing.

“Jonas did a heck of a job of rebounding and taking up paint rolling to the basket, finishing the plays and defending the post,” Casey said after Sunday’s win. “He’s getting his rhythm back, his condition back and his game rhythm back more so-to-speak. I was really proud and happy for him the way he played.”

During his first stint as a starter to open the season, Valanciunas hovered around 24.1 minutes per game. Expect more this time around. Davis is gone, Bargnani shouldn’t be far behind and Jonas appears more confident in his offensive game. There’s a ton of appeal here in terms of both plug-n-play and stash.

CAVALIERS
Position: Shooting guard
Coach Byron Scott has waffled all year regarding his shooting guard spot. At first, he said Dion Waiters needs to start because he needs to learn how to play off the ball. Then he said he liked Waiters with the second unit because he got to have the ball in his hands more. And now, he seems to have settled back into Waiters as a starter – citing improved play.

“In the last two to four weeks he’s really starting to grow just from a maturity standpoint,” Scott said. “He’s really starting to understand what being a pro is all about. He’s really starting to put in the work before and after practice and it’s really starting to pay off. He’s playing with a lot more confidence right now. He understands what his role is, even as a starter.”

In 35 starts this season, Waiters is averaging 30.2 minutes. In nine games off the bench he’s at 26.5 minutes. Now “entrenched” as a starter, think of him as a points specialist that can also help in 3-pointers and steals.

HAWKS
Position: Shooting guard/small forward
Kyle Korver obviously isn’t a great defender, especially on the ball. So when opponents come in with speed and athleticism at the 2/3 spots, coach Larry Drew likes to play matchups and bring KK off the bench.

However, that’s happened just twice in the last 10 games. During that span, Korver is averaging 38.2 minutes and making an absurd 3.5 3-pointers per night. Chalk up Monday’s off night to a gimpy ankle. Korver is a strong hold and start through the deadline while we wait to see what the Hawks pull off. For now, I’d still project him as the NBA’s 3-point leader in makes the rest of the way.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries or trades and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective or outstanding play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore some of the league’s most interesting rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what LeBron James and Kevin Durant are going to do – it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

For last week’s look at the West, bang it here. This week, the focus is on the Eastern Conference. We’ll start in Toronto, where a Lithuanian prospect is turning heads.

RAPTORS
Position: Power forward
On Sunday, we got a look at what the Raptors’ big-man rotation might look like without both Ed Davis (traded) and Andrea Bargnani (trade candidate), who was sidelined by the flu.

Coach Dwane Casey rolled with a starting frontcourt of Rudy Gay, Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. It was Valanciunas’ first start since fracturing a finger on his shooting hand and he passed the test with flying colors. The 20-year-old Lithuanian 7-footer posted 11 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in 34 minutes. That came on the heels of a 14-point, 13-rebound, two-block outing two nights earlier in Indiana.

The back-to-back performances in two wins have the Raptors buzzing. The Toronto Sun now says Valanciunas is “showing no signs of ever heading back to the bench.” When Casey is deciding between plodding, unathletic, low-upside journeyman Aaron Gray and a No. 5 overall pick with monster potential, there isn’t much hemming and hawing.

“Jonas did a heck of a job of rebounding and taking up paint rolling to the basket, finishing the plays and defending the post,” Casey said after Sunday’s win. “He’s getting his rhythm back, his condition back and his game rhythm back more so-to-speak. I was really proud and happy for him the way he played.”

During his first stint as a starter to open the season, Valanciunas hovered around 24.1 minutes per game. Expect more this time around. Davis is gone, Bargnani shouldn’t be far behind and Jonas appears more confident in his offensive game. There’s a ton of appeal here in terms of both plug-n-play and stash.

CAVALIERS
Position: Shooting guard
Coach Byron Scott has waffled all year regarding his shooting guard spot. At first, he said Dion Waiters needs to start because he needs to learn how to play off the ball. Then he said he liked Waiters with the second unit because he got to have the ball in his hands more. And now, he seems to have settled back into Waiters as a starter – citing improved play.

“In the last two to four weeks he’s really starting to grow just from a maturity standpoint,” Scott said. “He’s really starting to understand what being a pro is all about. He’s really starting to put in the work before and after practice and it’s really starting to pay off. He’s playing with a lot more confidence right now. He understands what his role is, even as a starter.”

In 35 starts this season, Waiters is averaging 30.2 minutes. In nine games off the bench he’s at 26.5 minutes. Now “entrenched” as a starter, think of him as a points specialist that can also help in 3-pointers and steals.

HAWKS
Position: Shooting guard/small forward
Kyle Korver obviously isn’t a great defender, especially on the ball. So when opponents come in with speed and athleticism at the 2/3 spots, coach Larry Drew likes to play matchups and bring KK off the bench.

However, that’s happened just twice in the last 10 games. During that span, Korver is averaging 38.2 minutes and making an absurd 3.5 3-pointers per night. Chalk up Monday’s off night to a gimpy ankle. Korver is a strong hold and start through the deadline while we wait to see what the Hawks pull off. For now, I’d still project him as the NBA’s 3-point leader in makes the rest of the way. HEAT
Position: Point guard
Miami’s team is so unique that we can’t evaluate it normally. Mario Chalmers has started every single game for a team that is fourth in the NBA at 104.4 points per night. He does two things (3-pointers, steals) at a very high level. Normally, the 26.0 minutes per night he gets is enough for fantasy owners.

But since Chalmers starts and plays most of his minutes with the Big Three, there just aren’t enough opportunities to go around. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combine to take 46.5 shots per game – 59.1 percent of the team’s total. Chalmers is nothing more than a specialist that will bust out for monster games roughly twice a month, allowing him to finish with something around 1.5 3-pointers and 1.5 steals. Good luck picking out when those monster games will happen.

KNICKS
Position: Power forward
Owners waiting for Amare Stoudemire to join the Knicks’ starting lineup shouldn’t hold their breath. He’s still on a 30 minutes per game cap and the results of a Stoudemire/Carmelo Anthony/Tyson Chandler lineup have been mixed at best. Coach Mike Woodson knows this.

“At this particular moment in time, we’re happy with him coming off the bench and we’re benefitting from it,” Woodson said. “With him and J.R. (Smith) and Steve (Novak), that really gives our bench a super threat in terms of how we play.”

A bench role doesn’t mean there’s no value in owning Stoudemire. His frail knees and back have actually held up really well, a surprise after he missed the first 30 games of the season. Amare hasn’t sat out a game since and his offensive game has been impressive.

All it means is that our expectations need to be held in check. His averages of 16.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 24.2 minutes are reasonable – although sustaining those points in such meager playing time is asking a little too much.  

MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
It’s been an amazing ride for J.J. Redick owners this season, but choppy waters could lie ahead.

First of all, Arron Afflalo is back from a calf injury that cost him six games. Afflalo, who was signed to a five-year, $43 million contract in August, has started every game he’s been active for this year. There is no real competition here.

The only hope for Redick to retain a starting job is for the Magic to kick Afflalo to small forward and put enticing rookie Maurice Harkless on the bench. But with the team at 15-36 and in all-out rebuilding mode, that appears unlikely. Note that Redick came off the bench Sunday.

OK, so here are the splits for Redick:
Reserve: 15.0 points, 4.4 assists, 2.3 rebounds, 2.4 treys, 30.8 minutes. Very nice.
Starter: 17.1 points, 4.9 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 2.5 treys, 35.8 minutes. Slightly nicer.

The five minute per game drop off is concerning, but Redick’s numbers haven’t really suffered as a bench player. The bigger concern is the Feb. 21 trade deadline.

I’ll have more on this in a Wednesday column about trade candidates, but Redick’s name is going to come up a lot. He has an expiring contract and as mentioned above, the Magic have made a monster commitment to Afflalo already. Contenders are going to come calling for Redick aggressively.

If Redick were to get traded, owners can expect a 50 percent decrease in statistical production. He’d go from a primary ball-handler, play-maker and shot-taker on one of the league’s worst rosters to a role player on a presumably strong roster. A trade isn’t a lock, but there’s a strong enough signs to make a sell-high move a strong play.

SIXERS
Position: Shooting guard
No, I do not think the recent tear that Nick Young has been on is a fluke. With Jason Richardson (knee) done for the year and Dorell Wright in coach Doug Collins’ doghouse for his lack of defense, the man known as “Swaggy” is here to stay.

Over the last 10 games, Young is playing 33.6 minutes a night. During that same span, Wright is at 15.3 minutes. Young is playing for a contract and is one of the better natural shooters in the entire league on a team desperate for scoring. It’s a perfect recipe for a monster end to the season.