Mike Gallagher

The Step-back 3

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Top 10 Deadline Sell High Guys

Thursday, February 14, 2013


 

4. Byron Mullens- Lord Byron has been on a tear in his four starts. He shot 47.2 percent from the field and averaged 20.0 points, 11.5 boards and 2.5 treys in 38.8 minutes over that stretch. Charlotte has the worst frontcourt in the league and it isn’t even close. Against opposing frontcourts, they allow the most points, blocks, assists and 3-pointers while giving up the highest field goal percent and efficiency rating this year. Unreal.

 

As much as they’re not really in a position to care about improving and may want to go into tank mode, they do have assets in the backcourt and being the laughing stock two years in a row isn’t a great way to attract talent for the future. Ben Gordon is a career 41 percent shooter from beyond the arc and there are a handful of teams that could use his services off the bench. The Bobcats lead the NBA in backcourt scoring and would obviously be acquiring a frontcourt guy, which suggests the additional inside presence could only hurt Mullens.

 

It’s also easy to forget that Mullens shot a pathetic 34.0 percent from the field in his 13 games prior to his severe ankle sprain. His owners shouldn’t be expecting him to keep up the pace of his four-game outburst.

 

5. Tim Duncan- He’s kind of another no doi sell-high player and the cat’s certainly out of the bag. He hasn’t put “fun” in the Big Fundamental in the past four weeks with nine DNPs. The Spurs are rumored to be going after some big men and it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that it’s all to provide depth behind Duncan for their stretch run.

 

The big question is: How low would you go in selling? On a per-game average, Duncan has provided top-five value in both eight- and nine-category leagues, so this question really lies into what type of format you have. If you’re in a daily Rotisserie league that has a max-games limit, Duncan could still hold some value. As long as you’re aware of the Arena Pops and can get him out of your lineup on time. However, head-to-head owners aren’t going to enjoy his massive drop-off in March with numerous DNPs. 

 

Head-to-head owners should probably start selling at about ninth-round value and work their way down. Roto owners would probably be best suited to just keep him and his per-game production should only drop to about fifth-round with his expected minutes drop.

 

6. Randy Foye- He’s been hot lately and ranks third in the league in 3-pointers made in February. He’s also making a career-high 42.8 percent from downtown on the season. However, his luck may begin to run out for quite a few reasons. The returns of Gordon Hayward and Mo Williams are the most obvious, but the Jazz seem extremely likely to be making a deal. They have the deepest group of bigs in the NBA and it’s probably safe to assume Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap may be on their way out. As a result, the Jazz will get some players back. A deal for just draft picks just doesn’t seem to be enough since they’ll likely be going to a contender, so Utah will be asking for a young wing or point guard. Foye owners should prepare to dump him at a heavily discounted rate.

 

7. Samuel Dalembert- Slammin’ Sammy Dalembert has been off the charts since Larry Sanders went down. In his last five games, he averaged 16.4 points, 11.2 boards and 2.6 blocks in 27.0 minutes. The timing couldn’t be better for the Bucks and chances are his performance put him firmly on the radar for NBA GMs looking to bolster their depth in the frontcourt.

 

It’s probably not going to be easy to deal him to an owner that is expecting him to even be an eight-point, eight-board guy, but that’s probably about his max on projection, so in conjunction with the trade rumors, testing the waters at that value makes sense.

 

8. Will Bynum- He’s another sell high for those “what have you done for me lately?” owners in your league. Bynum turned in a big game off the bench on Wednesday, scoring 20 points with eight assists in just 21 minutes. He hasn’t been too shabby in his last eight games either, averaging 12.3 points, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steals.

 

There can be a bit of an interesting catch with Bynum, though. If he gets sent to Boston, he might actually gain value with no player on Boston's roster able to hold down the point guard duties. He would fit in nicely with Boston, especially with his penetration ability. The 30-year-old guard has made 3.5 shots at the rim over his last eight games. As a reference point, Tony Parker leads point guards this year with 4.0 makes from that range on the season. It’s not a bad idea to see if someone might overpay and perhaps you could use the Boston rumor as a strong selling point.

 

9. Luke Ridnour- He’s another guy that enters the break on a hot streak. In his last four games, Luke averaged 19.0 points and 1.5 triples on 56.1 percent from the field. His field goal percentage over his career is just 43 percent and only 12.3 percent of his field goals came at the rim in the aforementioned four games, so there’s no way he’ll even shoot remotely close to 48 percent from the field the rest of the way. He could wind up with Boston, but a deal to New York or Utah would put a major dent in his value.

 

10. Jared Dudley- This is really a deep-league special right here. Dudley has been rumored to be on the block and he’s coming off a 26-minute game against the Lakers, so it’s not a bad window to try and get anything for him. His value will take a hit no matter where he goes since the Suns have some of the worst competition for minutes at the wing. Their small forward and shooting guards collectively rank in the bottom five for efficiency rating in the NBA. What’s more, the Suns are using Kendall Marshall more to see what he can do. Dudley isn’t very good and he’s barely worth owning in almost any format. I’d try to ship him in a 2-for-1 deal.



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Mike Gallagher has covered fantasy hoops for eight years and this season is his second with Rotoworld. You can find him on Twitter talking about a player's shots at the rim.



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