Alright folks, Trade Deadline Morning is here, and with reports already starting to roll in we’re going to jump right in it.
First things first, here is a list of all the people you need to follow today on Twitter:
@aaronbruski
@adamlevitan
@knaus_rw
@mikesgallagher
@docktora
@Mr_Norof
Here is the link to the player news page where all of our official takes will be blurbed in real-time.
Finally, here are the links to Wednesday’s trade deadline update, Ryan Knaus’ top stashes, this past weekend’s trade deadline update, Mike Gallagher’s top sell-high guys, Adam Levitan’s top trade candidates, and the initial trade deadline kickoff. I’ve listed them in the order that they were published (newest to oldest), so you can judge whether the information is still relevant. There will be links for each player so you can dive down and get the most recent information with a simple click.
We’ll publish a winners and losers column after the deadline so be on the lookout.
This report is up to date as of 10 AM ET, and from here all of the updates will be carried on the player news page.
Without further ado…..
JOSH SMITH, THE BUCKS, SUNS, AND NETS
This story is going to develop over the next few hours, and right now I’d call the Bucks the favorites simply because it’s the only deal structure I’ve seen that gives the Hawks a semi-decent return and also gives Smith a solid landing spot. Talks have surrounded Monta Ellis, and the Hawks are trying to pry Larry Sanders too. Ekpe Udoh's name has recently been added. This doesn’t sound like a lot if it’s only Ellis and minor parts, but he has just a one-year player option ($11M) on his current deal and would fit next to Jeff Teague in a shallow wing situation.
The Nets have offered Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, and a future first rounder, and that is not moving the needle according to most sources. The Suns reportedly (Steve Kyler) grabbed Marcus Morris to sweeten a potential deal and many reporters have called them the favorites, but an equal number say they’re not inclined to make Smith their franchise player and it’s unclear if he would re-sign there. Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, and 1-2 first round picks (one high pick, one Lakers pick) are being discussed, and Gortat + two picks would reportedly be enough to get the deal done according to Ken Berger, but Phoenix doesn’t want to part with their high pick or multiple picks.
The Hawks have said that they’re looking for young players, expiring contracts, picks, and specifically a young big man.
Again, a lot of this will come down to where Smith is willing to sign a long-term deal, assuming no contender comes out of the woodwork and is willing to rent. Smith wants to play for a contender and has said that he would play in Milwaukee even if Ellis isn’t there, specifically saying the city and weather aren’t a problem, though it’s unclear if Sanders’ exit would impact that decision. The Bucks have pieces they can offer in Samuel Dalembert, who has reportedly earned some favor in Milwaukee after his recent strong play, and Ersan Ilyasova isn’t off the table by most reports. Milwaukee can always sweeten a deal with Beno Udrih and John Henson among others. The Bucks have also discussed a follow up deal of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and a first round pick to swing J.J. Redick, and if they can prove they can do that then that would make their roster a pretty nice pitch to Smith.
The Nets are reportedly targeting Smith as their highest priority (Broussard) and trying to get a third team involved, knowing their current offer probably won’t work, and along with dark-horse Washington they are the teams most “diligent” in their pursuit of Smith (David Aldridge). The Celtics are probably in the mix to some degree, as semi-reliable Chris Broussard has said Rajon Rondo could be available and a Jeff Green sweetener could do the trick. There is also talk that they might keep Smith and try to make a run at Dwight Howard in free agency, and that shouldn’t be ruled out.
For what it’s worth, Milwaukee beat writer Gery Woelfel has been very plugged in on this deal and says league sources believe that Phoenix has the upper hand. Ken Berger echoed that report. Adrian Wojnarowski adds that the Hawks would prefer to trade him to the Western Conference. Woj also added that the Rockets are lingering, but the Hawks’ desire for Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons is a non-starter. Ken Berger adds that they are in “high-level” talks, but both reporters have indicated that the Rockets don’t want to overpay.
To add favor to the Bucks scenario, Devin Harris is reportedly on the block (Woelfel) and wouldn’t mind returning to his hometown in Milwaukee.
That’s a lot of analysis to say we don’t know where he’s going, but if you’re reading the tea leaves for this one very big domino those are the most recent reports. Smith would hold his value in Phoenix and could conceivably improve, while the Nets would be bad news, and the Celtics, Bucks, and Wizards would also be a sap to his value. Houston could be interesting but it’s a bit too unlikely at the time of this post (9:30 ET) to change his fantasy situation. In Atlanta he gets to do what he wants, and in these other locations there is more depth to steal away touches. I’d be willing to discount a round or two off his current value just to mitigate some of that risk, especially with the name value he has that’s running a round or two higher than his real value.
Kris Humphries and MarShon Brooks have been dangled to every basketball team on the planet, so owners should pay attention to where the smoke is the thickest and assess if either player can make an impact there. Both will be risky plays even if they land in the most ideal of circumstances.
J.J. REDICK
The writing on the wall is that the Magic won’t want to pay $7 million for four years as a starting point for his deal, and therefore they will want to get as low as a late first round pick according to Chris Mannix. The Spurs have jumped into the mix, the Bucks are offering a first and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and the Pacers, Grizzlies and Bulls have also been noted. I’d expect a few other teams to join, and we’ve gone on record a few times calling Redick a sell-high guy for the chance he moves. He’ll have a hard time reproducing the touches he gets in Orlando. I’d call the Bucks the favorites in the aforementioned Josh Smith scenario, but I wouldn’t bet my dog on it.
THE CELTICS, BOBCATS, AND CLIPPERS
The talk of a deal with the Clippers has died down and/or ground to a halt (depending on who you listen to), with both Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce being discussed at some point in time. A lot of focus has been on KG, who is said to be open to a deal to the Clippers (or not), and is favored by the staff and players there. For now, I wouldn’t worry about those talks.
Some more likely targets have emerged in Charlotte, where Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions have been discussed as possible targets. Both could retain some value in Boston, but it would likely have to be accommodated by an exit of Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee, or Jason Terry. Bradley and Lee have been discussed by the Wolves, with Lee having played for Rick Adelman in Houston. In general, the winner and/or loser between Henderson and Sessions will be the guy that doesn’t leave Charlotte with the other heading out. I think both guys should be owned in most cases for the chance they win in that equation, as the effects will probably last throughout the rest of the year.
Back to the first paragraph, the exciting and unlikely scenario would be that the Celtics find a deal that makes sense as a rebuild, and then they start moving their superstars.
The Clippers are the source of many competing reports, ranging from likely to deal to not likely to deal at all. Eric Bledsoe should be stashed for the chance he blows up in a beneficial trade, but beyond the Celtics deal he hasn’t been named in any specific rumors. DeAndre Jordan was dangled and might be the most likely Clipper to be traded outside of Caron Butler, and he is worth a small amount of added consideration for the chance he gets more playing time elsewhere. Talks of landing Paul Millsap have died down completely.
Alright folks, Trade Deadline Morning is here, and with reports already starting to roll in we’re going to jump right in it.
First things first, here is a list of all the people you need to follow today on Twitter:
@aaronbruski
@adamlevitan
@knaus_rw
@mikesgallagher
@docktora
@Mr_Norof
Here is the link to the player news page where all of our official takes will be blurbed in real-time.
Finally, here are the links to Wednesday’s trade deadline update, Ryan Knaus’ top stashes, this past weekend’s trade deadline update, Mike Gallagher’s top sell-high guys, Adam Levitan’s top trade candidates, and the initial trade deadline kickoff. I’ve listed them in the order that they were published (newest to oldest), so you can judge whether the information is still relevant. There will be links for each player so you can dive down and get the most recent information with a simple click.
We’ll publish a winners and losers column after the deadline so be on the lookout.
This report is up to date as of 10 AM ET, and from here all of the updates will be carried on the player news page.
Without further ado…..
JOSH SMITH, THE BUCKS, SUNS, AND NETS
This story is going to develop over the next few hours, and right now I’d call the Bucks the favorites simply because it’s the only deal structure I’ve seen that gives the Hawks a semi-decent return and also gives Smith a solid landing spot. Talks have surrounded Monta Ellis, and the Hawks are trying to pry Larry Sanders too. Ekpe Udoh's name has recently been added. This doesn’t sound like a lot if it’s only Ellis and minor parts, but he has just a one-year player option ($11M) on his current deal and would fit next to Jeff Teague in a shallow wing situation.
The Nets have offered Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, and a future first rounder, and that is not moving the needle according to most sources. The Suns reportedly (Steve Kyler) grabbed Marcus Morris to sweeten a potential deal and many reporters have called them the favorites, but an equal number say they’re not inclined to make Smith their franchise player and it’s unclear if he would re-sign there. Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, and 1-2 first round picks (one high pick, one Lakers pick) are being discussed, and Gortat + two picks would reportedly be enough to get the deal done according to Ken Berger, but Phoenix doesn’t want to part with their high pick or multiple picks.
The Hawks have said that they’re looking for young players, expiring contracts, picks, and specifically a young big man.
Again, a lot of this will come down to where Smith is willing to sign a long-term deal, assuming no contender comes out of the woodwork and is willing to rent. Smith wants to play for a contender and has said that he would play in Milwaukee even if Ellis isn’t there, specifically saying the city and weather aren’t a problem, though it’s unclear if Sanders’ exit would impact that decision. The Bucks have pieces they can offer in Samuel Dalembert, who has reportedly earned some favor in Milwaukee after his recent strong play, and Ersan Ilyasova isn’t off the table by most reports. Milwaukee can always sweeten a deal with Beno Udrih and John Henson among others. The Bucks have also discussed a follow up deal of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and a first round pick to swing J.J. Redick, and if they can prove they can do that then that would make their roster a pretty nice pitch to Smith.
The Nets are reportedly targeting Smith as their highest priority (Broussard) and trying to get a third team involved, knowing their current offer probably won’t work, and along with dark-horse Washington they are the teams most “diligent” in their pursuit of Smith (David Aldridge). The Celtics are probably in the mix to some degree, as semi-reliable Chris Broussard has said Rajon Rondo could be available and a Jeff Green sweetener could do the trick. There is also talk that they might keep Smith and try to make a run at Dwight Howard in free agency, and that shouldn’t be ruled out.
For what it’s worth, Milwaukee beat writer Gery Woelfel has been very plugged in on this deal and says league sources believe that Phoenix has the upper hand. Ken Berger echoed that report. Adrian Wojnarowski adds that the Hawks would prefer to trade him to the Western Conference. Woj also added that the Rockets are lingering, but the Hawks’ desire for Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons is a non-starter. Ken Berger adds that they are in “high-level” talks, but both reporters have indicated that the Rockets don’t want to overpay.
To add favor to the Bucks scenario, Devin Harris is reportedly on the block (Woelfel) and wouldn’t mind returning to his hometown in Milwaukee.
That’s a lot of analysis to say we don’t know where he’s going, but if you’re reading the tea leaves for this one very big domino those are the most recent reports. Smith would hold his value in Phoenix and could conceivably improve, while the Nets would be bad news, and the Celtics, Bucks, and Wizards would also be a sap to his value. Houston could be interesting but it’s a bit too unlikely at the time of this post (9:30 ET) to change his fantasy situation. In Atlanta he gets to do what he wants, and in these other locations there is more depth to steal away touches. I’d be willing to discount a round or two off his current value just to mitigate some of that risk, especially with the name value he has that’s running a round or two higher than his real value.
Kris Humphries and MarShon Brooks have been dangled to every basketball team on the planet, so owners should pay attention to where the smoke is the thickest and assess if either player can make an impact there. Both will be risky plays even if they land in the most ideal of circumstances.
J.J. REDICK
The writing on the wall is that the Magic won’t want to pay $7 million for four years as a starting point for his deal, and therefore they will want to get as low as a late first round pick according to Chris Mannix. The Spurs have jumped into the mix, the Bucks are offering a first and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and the Pacers, Grizzlies and Bulls have also been noted. I’d expect a few other teams to join, and we’ve gone on record a few times calling Redick a sell-high guy for the chance he moves. He’ll have a hard time reproducing the touches he gets in Orlando. I’d call the Bucks the favorites in the aforementioned Josh Smith scenario, but I wouldn’t bet my dog on it.
THE CELTICS, BOBCATS, AND CLIPPERS
The talk of a deal with the Clippers has died down and/or ground to a halt (depending on who you listen to), with both Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce being discussed at some point in time. A lot of focus has been on KG, who is said to be open to a deal to the Clippers (or not), and is favored by the staff and players there. For now, I wouldn’t worry about those talks.
Some more likely targets have emerged in Charlotte, where Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions have been discussed as possible targets. Both could retain some value in Boston, but it would likely have to be accommodated by an exit of Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee, or Jason Terry. Bradley and Lee have been discussed by the Wolves, with Lee having played for Rick Adelman in Houston. In general, the winner and/or loser between Henderson and Sessions will be the guy that doesn’t leave Charlotte with the other heading out. I think both guys should be owned in most cases for the chance they win in that equation, as the effects will probably last throughout the rest of the year.
Back to the first paragraph, the exciting and unlikely scenario would be that the Celtics find a deal that makes sense as a rebuild, and then they start moving their superstars.
The Clippers are the source of many competing reports, ranging from likely to deal to not likely to deal at all. Eric Bledsoe should be stashed for the chance he blows up in a beneficial trade, but beyond the Celtics deal he hasn’t been named in any specific rumors. DeAndre Jordan was dangled and might be the most likely Clipper to be traded outside of Caron Butler, and he is worth a small amount of added consideration for the chance he gets more playing time elsewhere. Talks of landing Paul Millsap have died down completely.
PEKOVIC AND MOZGOV
His name has picked up recently as the Bobcats discussed a deal for Gerald Henderson and J.J. Hickson but it apparently went nowhere. The more likely landing spots would be Minnesota and New York, who have both indicated interest. In the case of the Knicks they need backup big men, but in Minny it’s more interesting because it could be a referendum on Nikola Pekovic’s future. The Wolves reportedly like the idea of paying less for Mozgov than they will have to this year when Pek becomes an RFA, and with rumblings for about a week about Pek’s future being in doubt I’m thinking owners need to consider a sell-high offer. He plays in a very good system in Minnesota and gets a ton of easy looks. A trade to another location could mess that up. I’m not saying ‘move at all costs,’ but if you can get an even money deal then I’d do it. It’s worth noting that Mozgov has experience playing with many of the Wolves’ international players.
THE WOLVES
Marc Spears reported that he was off the block, but literally everybody else has reported he’s in the mix, as is J.J. Barea and Derrick Williams. Along with the aforementioned Pekovic situation, and the fact that the Wolves have been aggressively offering first round picks for established talent, and have even seen a Derrick Williams for Paul Millsap deal floated – Minnesota is a team to watch today. They get a ton of phone calls on Andrei Kirilenko, too, but they’ve mostly rebuffed those. Alexey Shved has been very quiet lately, but I’d hold him through the break as long as you can to see how things shake out (even with Chase Budinger getting healthier). Darren Wolfson reported that it was doubtful the Wolves would get in on the J.J. Redick sweepstakes, even though they’re clearly hunting wings.
THE JAZZ
Just like the Josh Smith and Andrea Bargnani situations, the luxury tax and the fact that everybody knows the Jazz want to move Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson has made the market soft. There are literally no reported offers on the table right now, but I’d expect the noise to pick up any second now. Both guys could take a small hit wherever they go, and Millsap could conceivably get a bump if landing in a shallow unit. Jefferson is already maxed out in terms of production. Derrick Favors is a must-own player and I’ve been stashing Enes Kanter where I can.
CARLOS BOOZER
His contract is atrocious and it’s hard to see anybody biting on it, but Detroit beat writer Vincent Ellis reported that a league source called him the most likely guy to be moved at the deadline, ahead of Josh Smith. Fantasy owners should simply keep their ear to the ground as his value would be dependent upon where he lands, and it’s worth noting that ESPN just reported that both he and Richard Hamilton are expected to remain with the team.
THE DARK HORSE
Jordan Crawford is persona non grata in Washington but is fully available and drawing interest. GMs love situations like this where they believe they can fix a guy, and if he lands on a team that is having trouble putting the ball in the hole he could become relevant real quick. If your wire is bare and you have dead weight I wouldn’t blame you for taking a flier, and definitely keep your eyes open and be ready to move.
BENO UDRIH
He hasn’t gotten a lot of attention but it’s worth pointing out that if the Bucks don’t secure a guy like J.J. Redick, and they otherwise deal Monta Ellis (or in the off chance they actually move Brandon Jennings), Beno Udrih could step in and be a nice low-end producer right away. The Mavs have expressed interest and he’d need Darren Collison to head out to carry any real value there, but he’s worth watching and stashing in situations where the wire is bare (think 14-16 team formats until rumors heat up in his favor).
DYING DOWN
Andrea Bargnani: Once a lock to get dealt, he has played so bad and his injury history has scared everybody off. He could still get dealt, but multiple sources have a deal this summer as being more likely.
Danny Granger: David Aldridge said there was absolutely no chance he gets dealt, while Mike Wells said there was a 20 percent chance. I’m going with DA on this one.
Zach Randolph: Most reports have centered on the lack of interest the Grizzlies have in moving him.
Iman Shumpert: There have been no reports to suggest that he’s on the market.
Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, and Nick Young: None of these guys are untouchable, but most reports have the Sixers waiting to see what they have in Andrew Bynum before they start making moves.
J.J. Hickson: The Blazers are trying to market him but he has a no trade clause and needs to stay put to retain his Bird Rights, so it sounds like they’re trying to facilitate a deal that the player would like. Nobody is putting much stock in a move, but keep an eye on things as a move out of Portland would likely ding his value.
Spurs on Al Jefferson or Josh Smith: Ric Bucher has lost his touch reporting, but nobody else is running these deals up the flagpole anymore so I’m inclined to believe he’s right about this.
ON AN ISLAND
Chris Sheridan reported that there is a 50/50 shot that Dwight Howard gets dealt to the Nets, but he has missed so many times this year that it’s hard to take him seriously anymore.
SMALLER ITEMS
C.J. Watson: The Celtics are interested but the Nets don’t want to give him up with Deron Williams’ injury risk.
Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum, Jason Maxiell, Jonas Jerebko, Charlie Villanueva: Each of these guys has been mentioned, and have reasons the Pistons would want to move them. It’s unclear or doubtful that Brandon Knight’s knee injury will move the needle here, and it’s also worth noting that there have been reports throwing cold water on the Pistons’ desire to make deals.
Eric Gordon: Reports that teams are interested in him have been greatly exaggerated, and a deal is extremely unlikely.
Terrence Jones: He was reportedly available earlier in the week, then Steve Kyler reported that the Rockets moved Marcus Morris so he could get more playing time. He’s not worth an add, but if reports like that start to heat up then he could be worth a speculative add in deeper formats. Remember, Thomas Robinson just joined up and Royce White could eventually see some action.
Gerald Green: Available and would need a very good situation to get owners’ attention.
Marreese Speights: He has failed to gain any traction on the open market, but this is the type of player that often gets moved. His fantasy value is probably best in Cleveland, even if he has slowed his production recently and been stuck with limited minutes.
Ben Gordon: The Nets emphatically denied any interest here, and his recent spat isn’t helping his cause.
Dominique Jones, Roddy Beaubois, Brandan Wright, Shawn Marion, O.J. Mayo: Normally Mayo would be included in a higher profile writeup, but the only thing we’ve heard there is that the Wolves reached out to the Mavs and got shot down. Jones and Beaubois could use a change of scenery but there’s not a lot to see here. Marion is a guy to keep an eye out on and is probably the most likely Mav to get traded today.
Jermaine O’Neal: The Knicks are interested due to their backup big man needs and I’d expect any team needing a big man to get in the mix. The Suns will try to get something in return but could also end up waiving him.
Ronnie Brewer: He’s being shopped but there is nothing to see here.
Eric Maynor: The Raptors are interested in him and the Thunder are shopping him aggressively. He’d need an unlikely, amazing landing spot to land on fantasy radars.
Kendrick Perkins: Beat writer Royce Young said that we can “feel free” to look into Perkins’ absence last night due to a knee injury, and I’d expect the Thunder to explore any options they can find for cheaper, serviceable big men that can actually defend and rebound.
Sebastian Telfair: The Raptors are the front-runners for his services and they’ve been targeting a backup point guard all week. There’s no fantasy value for him there, and it could mean that John Lucas is on the way out (strangely).
DeJuan Blair: There have been competing reports and normally I’d dismiss the ones saying he’s going to stay, since the Spurs have no real use for him and he’s been on the outs there – but David Aldridge said he’s likely to stay put and that carries quite a bit of weight.
Linas Kleiza: Could be moved and there’s not much to see.
Richard Hamilton: It was recently reported by ESPN Chicago that he was off the table, but Gery Woelfel says the Bulls are pushing hard. The latter sounds more realistic, and this action can be watched from the wire.