Thunderbolt of Rest?

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries or trades and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective or outstanding play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore some of the league’s most interesting rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what LeBron James and James Harden are going to do – it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

For last week’s look at the East, bang it here. This week, the focus is on the Western Conference. We’ll start in Oklahoma City, where fears of coasting into the playoffs are unfounded.

THUNDER
Position: Point guard, Small forward
The rotation in Oklahoma City, as usual, has been rock solid all year. The only question is if stars will rest down the stretch. We can safely answer that with a resounding "no."

Currently, the 50-17 Thunder are one game behind the Spurs for the top seed in the Western Conference. They are also just 2.5 games behind Miami in the race for home-court advantage in a potential Finals rematch.

Additionally, there’s no history of resting here. A year ago, the Thunder only had an outside shot at catching the Spurs for the West’s best record. Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka still played in every single April game. They averaged 33.8, 38.7 and 26.0 minutes respectively in that month.

Furthermore, these guys play through minor nicks at all costs. Westbrook leads the NBA with 379 consecutive games played while Durant has sat out of just 14 games in his six-year career. Ibaka has not dressed just 11 times in his four-year career. It’s yet another reason why these three are among the top-10 fantasy players.

CLIPPERS
Position: Small forward
I was high on Matt Barnes when it looked like Caron Butler may have a serious shoulder injury. In the four games that Butler has missed this year, Barnes has averaged 15.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 3-pointers and 1.5 steals in a whopping 37.6 minutes. We can certainly make an argument that Barnes is a better player at this point in their respective careers.

The problem is that the Clippers have gone 1-3 when Barnes starts vs. 45-18 when Butler starts. Coach Vinny Del Negro has no incentive whatsoever to make a drastic rotation change – especially this deep in the season.

That means Barnes is stuck with his usual 25.4 minutes off the bench. Sometimes, a bench role can help a player’s statistical production because he is the first option. But the Clippers’ bench belongs to chucking, volume-shooting Jamal Crawford, so Barnes plays second fiddle. It means just 8.4 shot attempts per game and very little fantasy upside.  

KINGS
Position: Shooting guard
I discussed Marcus Thornton a couple weeks ago in this space. I want to hit on him again because owners may be wavering.

Over the last two weeks, Thornton has played fewer than 20 minutes twice. But a closer examination shows that those two instances were fluky games in which the Kings lost by 36 and 42 points. Thornton is not part of the garbage-time rotation, but he remains a consistent part of the main rotation.

If we throw those two games out Thornton is playing 27.5 minutes per game in March. He’s still an asset for owners in search of points and 3-pointers.

LAKERS
Position: Power forward
Mike D’Antoni seems like he’s steering this ship without a rudder. The Pau Gasol situation is a perfect example.

When D’Antoni first came aboard, he said Gasol didn’t fit next to Dwight Howard and therefore benched the Spaniard. Whether that move was right or wrong, at least the coach had conviction about it. But now that Gasol is nearing a return from his foot injury, D’Antoni says he will start. Why the change? Because he doesn’t want any distractions.

Well, D’Antoni’s waffling is good news for Gasol’s projected statistical impact upon his return. He averages 34.5 minutes as a starter this year and 28.6 as a reserve. Make sure Gasol isn’t floating on any waiver wires.

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries or trades and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective or outstanding play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore some of the league’s most interesting rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what LeBron James and James Harden are going to do – it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

For last week’s look at the East, bang it here. This week, the focus is on the Western Conference. We’ll start in Oklahoma City, where fears of coasting into the playoffs are unfounded.

THUNDER
Position: Point guard, Small forward
The rotation in Oklahoma City, as usual, has been rock solid all year. The only question is if stars will rest down the stretch. We can safely answer that with a resounding "no."

Currently, the 50-17 Thunder are one game behind the Spurs for the top seed in the Western Conference. They are also just 2.5 games behind Miami in the race for home-court advantage in a potential Finals rematch.

Additionally, there’s no history of resting here. A year ago, the Thunder only had an outside shot at catching the Spurs for the West’s best record. Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka still played in every single April game. They averaged 33.8, 38.7 and 26.0 minutes respectively in that month.

Furthermore, these guys play through minor nicks at all costs. Westbrook leads the NBA with 379 consecutive games played while Durant has sat out of just 14 games in his six-year career. Ibaka has not dressed just 11 times in his four-year career. It’s yet another reason why these three are among the top-10 fantasy players.

CLIPPERS
Position: Small forward
I was high on Matt Barnes when it looked like Caron Butler may have a serious shoulder injury. In the four games that Butler has missed this year, Barnes has averaged 15.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 3-pointers and 1.5 steals in a whopping 37.6 minutes. We can certainly make an argument that Barnes is a better player at this point in their respective careers.

The problem is that the Clippers have gone 1-3 when Barnes starts vs. 45-18 when Butler starts. Coach Vinny Del Negro has no incentive whatsoever to make a drastic rotation change – especially this deep in the season.

That means Barnes is stuck with his usual 25.4 minutes off the bench. Sometimes, a bench role can help a player’s statistical production because he is the first option. But the Clippers’ bench belongs to chucking, volume-shooting Jamal Crawford, so Barnes plays second fiddle. It means just 8.4 shot attempts per game and very little fantasy upside.  

KINGS
Position: Shooting guard
I discussed Marcus Thornton a couple weeks ago in this space. I want to hit on him again because owners may be wavering.

Over the last two weeks, Thornton has played fewer than 20 minutes twice. But a closer examination shows that those two instances were fluky games in which the Kings lost by 36 and 42 points. Thornton is not part of the garbage-time rotation, but he remains a consistent part of the main rotation.

If we throw those two games out Thornton is playing 27.5 minutes per game in March. He’s still an asset for owners in search of points and 3-pointers.

LAKERS
Position: Power forward
Mike D’Antoni seems like he’s steering this ship without a rudder. The Pau Gasol situation is a perfect example.

When D’Antoni first came aboard, he said Gasol didn’t fit next to Dwight Howard and therefore benched the Spaniard. Whether that move was right or wrong, at least the coach had conviction about it. But now that Gasol is nearing a return from his foot injury, D’Antoni says he will start. Why the change? Because he doesn’t want any distractions.

Well, D’Antoni’s waffling is good news for Gasol’s projected statistical impact upon his return. He averages 34.5 minutes as a starter this year and 28.6 as a reserve. Make sure Gasol isn’t floating on any waiver wires. MAVERICKS
Position: Point guard
Coach Rick Carlisle finally appears to have found a mix that works at the point. With Mike James starting each of the last eight games, the Mavs have gone 6-2. James is playing 27.5 minutes a night during that span.

Meanwhile, Darren Collison has settled in comfortably with the second unit. He’s still getting 25.1 minutes a night over these last eight games. With Roddy Beaubois sidelined by a fractured finger, there’s enough room for both point guards to have deep-league value here.

NUGGETS
Position: Power forward
Kenneth Faried has gone AWOL of late, strangely averaging just 22.7 minutes a night over the last nine games. He’s played 20 minutes or less in three of the last four games. I wouldn’t sweat it.

Coach George Karl is simply riding the hot hand of Wilson Chandler and going small when he can. Faried has also found himself in early foul trouble of late. With matchups against bigger front lines of the Kings, Hornets, Spurs and Nets coming up in the next 10 days, Karl will need Faried’s presence. He’ll settle back into that 27-30 minute role shortly.

ROCKETS
Position: Power forward
Players from overseas often come to the NBA with a reputation for being softer and not as intense as their American counterparts. That’s not the case with Donatas Motiejunas.

Since the Thomas Robinson trade, Motiejunas has started nine straight games. His play has been inconsistent and uneven, but his energy has been there. And that’s enough for coach Kevin McHale right now.

“If D-Mo makes mistakes, he makes up for it by just hustling and working hard. … That’s what we have to get everybody doing,” McHale said.

During the aforementioned nine-game run, Motiejunas is averaging 22.1 minutes per night. Thomas Robinson is getting just 12.8 minutes per game as a Rocket. Neither are real fantasy options. They’re merely clogging things up for Carlos Delfino, who has been reduced to a bench role and 23.5 minutes. It’s enough for him to make 2.4 3-pointers a night, but that’s the only place he’ll be helping owners.

SPURS
Position: Power forward, point guard
Now that we’re in crunch time, preparing for missed games is crucial. So here are some numbers on Tim Duncan I posted in this space six weeks ago:

2011/12 games missed in April: 5 of 16; Minutes played in April: 26.4
2010/11 games missed in April: 1 of 7; Minutes played in April: 27.9
2009/10 games missed in April: 1 of 8; Minutes played in April: 28.2

As you can see, Duncan’s April minutes have been steadily dropping over the last three years. I’d also be absolutely stunned if he doesn’t sit out at least two of the Spurs’ nine April games this year. They have back-to-backs on April 3/4 and 14/15.

Let’s do the same exercise with Tony Parker, who should be back from his ankle sprain sometime in the end of March.

2011/12 games missed in April: 3 of 16; Minutes played in April: 25.1
2010/11 games missed in April: 1 of 7; Minutes played in April: 31.1
2009/10 games missed in April: 2 of 8; Minutes played in April: 25.0

As we’ve seen over the last couple weeks, Parker has no handcuff. Owners are just going to have to bite the bullet and accept limited production.