Once again we’re taking a look at the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft – this time picks 16-30, some notables and finally we’re breaking down the draft day trades.
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* Note: For clarification purposes when I use the term ‘Shallow’ leagues I’m generally referring to 8-10 teams and the rest are as follows: Standard (12), Deep (14-20), Super-Deep (20-25) and Massive (25-30 teams). It’s not an exact science as you have to figure how many roster spots you have, etc.
FIRST ROUND 16-30
16. Lucas Nogueira, Spain – C – Hawks (from Celtics)
‘Bebe’ took the basketball world by storm when he fit his oversized NBA team hat onto a massive afro, and if all goes right for the Hawks he’ll be taking that same world by storm with his potentially elite skills protecting the rim. DraftExpress.com calls him “as mobile of a 7-footer as you’ll find on this side of the ocean” (whatever that means), but weighing just 220 pounds there are serious doubts about his ability to patrol the paint at an NBA level.
Offensively he is well-below average with only dunks and putbacks to his repertoire, and his decision-making is only average at best. His experience in Spain has been colored by a lack of playing time and an unregimented environment. Some have also questioned his commitment to the game and in the weight room, and at 20 years old there’s a pretty good chance that he’s not going to find the bulk he desperately needs. Chris Mannix reported on draft night that he would likely be stashed overseas for the upcoming season. Though the Hawks could use somebody to move Al Horford out of the center position, Bebe is a project for at least another year and probably more.
Recommendation: Worth a look in super-deep Dynasty leagues only
17. Dennis Schroeder, Germany – PG – Hawks
Schroeder started his surge up draft boards following the Nike Hoops Summit in April, as the 19-year old took control of his squad’s offense and also took a leadership role with his younger teammates – a reflection of the experience he has gained playing in the German League. His jumper is good enough to convince scouts that he has 3-point potential, but his first step and overall quickness on both sides of the floor are the real draws here.
His smallish 6’2/165 frame is a big concern, but his on-ball defense provides a nice counter to any talk that he will be a defensive liability. Schroeder still needs to address his turnovers, which are a function of his constant attacking, and scouts think it’s within his grasp to get it under control. He lands in Atlanta, where middle-tier starter Jeff Teague is a restricted free agent and should see good interest from potential suitors.
With only a handful of point guards on the market this summer it would be surprising to see Danny Ferry let Teague walk unless he receives a way-over-market offer. Still, with practically no depth in Atlanta behind Lou Williams (ACL surgery) there is plenty of room for Schroeder to earn a 15-25 minute role early on, and some upside beyond that if everything breaks the right way.
Recommendation: Worth owning in deeper Dynasty leagues and worth a look in deeper redraft formats
18. Shane Larkin, Miami – PG – Mavs (from Hawks)
Larkin impressed talent evaluators after a solid sophomore campaign running the show for Miami, proving he can operate the pick-and-roll and hit outside jumpers with regularity. Standing just 5’11” tall, size is going to be an issue against larger point guards, and he will have to take big steps on that end to make any full-time signal calling job a reality.
The son of MLB star Barry Larkin, he’s shown excellent work ethic and combined with his impressive ball-protection and playmaking skills he profiles as a guy that can earn a coach’s trust, albeit with some rough edges to smooth out still. He will likely push Darren Collison for a time-share at some point during the year, and that moment could be sooner rather than later. In a best-case scenario he can topple Collison, who was on the wrong end of Rick Carlisle’s tirades a few too many times last season.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep Dynasty leagues and drafting today he’s worth owning in super-deep redraft formats.
19. Sergey Karasev, Russia – SF – Cavs
Karasev was predicted by both of our mock drafters to land in Cleveland at No. 19, and he profiles as a 3-point shooter and perimeter-based small forward with major defensive issues. He is also an average athlete at best, and combined with a below average dribble-drive game he’s going to be a one-trick pony early on in his career.
Still, he’s just 19 years old and already has significant professional experience playing internationally and he could make some quick leaps to address those shortcomings. Alonzo Gee is the only real small forward in competition with Karasev for minutes and the Cavs reportedly view Gee “as a backup.” Karasev could leap-frog him right away if he can prove he’s not a total defensive liability. Considering the Cavs have very little depth on the wing in their group of Dion Waiters, C.J. Miles, and RFA Wayne Ellington, the rookie could emerge with some job security if the Cavs don’t acquire a free agent small forward.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep redraft leagues if the Cavs don’t acquire a small forward, and a player to own in super-deep Dynasty leagues, regardless.
20. Tony Snell, New Mexico – SF – Bulls
The Bulls showed their lack of depth last season and the one major knock on Tom Thibodeau has been the costly culture of playing through injuries he has created in Chicago. Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are in those injury cross-hairs, and recently Deng has landed in the trade rumor mill though nothing appears to be in the hopper right now.
With Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and rumored-to-be-outbound UFA Marco Belinelli the only established wings, and only Butler capable of playing the 3, there is a real chance for Snell to gobble up some wing minutes if he can figure out Thibodeau’s defense. He is a solid 3-point shooter and has the physical tools to be a good defender, but he has suffered from a lack of focus on that end and a lack of aggression in general. Thibs doesn’t really do that, so like it was with Butler it will likely be an all-or-nothing situation with regards to a rotation slot.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper Dynasty leagues and massive redraft formats if Deng stays, and he’ll be worth a look in standard Dynasty leagues and deep redraft leagues if Deng somehow skips town.