Aaron Bruski

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The Final Bruski 150

Tuesday, October 29, 2013


So this is it, the final Bruski 150 update before the start of the season.  Once again this is a fearless list that has undergone constant statistical revision for over two months, seeking both the quantitative and the qualitative, but most importantly it does not seek to fit in with industry norms.  


It is the same list I take into big money championships, and oddly enough it was used yesterday for four rounds on autodraft at the National Championship of Fantasy Basketball when an emergency made me late to my biggest draft of the year.  


While I couldn’t play the ADP game and I ended up with an unbalanced team in all the chaos, I’m pretty happy with my early round quartet of Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Kawhi Leonard and Larry Sanders.  Again, not ideal given the likelihood I would have done better in person, but I inadvertently went best player available and now I just have to manage my team to victory.  


Ergo, (or heretofore as Charlie Day might say), if you go by this list we’ll be living and dying together many a fork-night.  I’ll shoulder the pressure to produce for you guys, but if I’m going to do that I’m definitely not going to put a guy high just because it might look crazy to, say, rank LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson outside of the early rounds.  


Likewise, my final adjustments included last assessments on guys like Victor Oladipo, Teague, Gordon Hayward, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Beverley, Enes Kanter, and Reggie Jackson that are likely to make the comments section explode one last time.  


Will it be perfect? No way, but last year’s Bruski 150 finished better than Basketball Monster’s projections last season, and not only do they run a killer website but they know their stuff, too.  Ken Slight and Matt Buser are pretty much the balls when it comes to fantasy hoops.  The same methodology also led me to the unofficial NFBKC championship during the abbreviated lockout season.  


So while some of these ranks may shock or awe, this isn’t an exercise in mass destruction.  


As for how this list works, once again it is an 8-cat Roto list that happens to include Average Draft Positions (ADP) for your convenience and 9-cat rankings in the parenthesis.  


Before the head-to-head players go nuts, just remember that Roto ranks provide a basis for you to make educated assessments about how games played or punting strategies might work.  There is a litany of tools on the Internet to help you with that, and if you want to get a solid idea of how portions of this list were created check out Ryan Knaus’ home run columns on The Numbers Game here and here.  

 

You will also want to note that this list does reflect games played predictions, but it rarely if ever takes scarcity or other league-dependent factors into play.  I want to give you a pure rank to work with to the best of my ability, and what you do with it from there is up to you. 


And because news is rolling in constantly, you’ll want to keep tabs on our player news page for the most updated information.


So best of luck to you guys this season. When you win we win and we can all sit in a circle and sing Cumbaya when it’s over.


To get NBA news and information as it breaks, click here to follow me on Twitter.


This list is updated as of Tuesday, October 29, 2013 at 7 AM ET.


*Breaking News Update (2:18 PM ET): Before you ask I’ll let you know that news of Beverley starting hasn’t been included. Originally projected at 26 mpg on the year, I’d adjust that number up a minute or two but keep in mind I already had him slotted to win the mpg battle.  Being named the starter could simply be semantics, but it certainly opens the door for upside. If you want to adjust him upward 5-10 ranks it would continue the path of aggression I originally set out.  If anything ever happened to Jeremy Lin, I have little doubt he would be a top 15-30 play.


Editor's Note: For last second drafts or simply to get complete player information, check out our NBA Draft Guide.  In there you will find plenty of tidbits like Aaron Bruski's entry on Beverley in the Bold Predictions section (filed for our AUGUST print edition):


"Patrick Beverley plays more minutes than Jeremy Lin this season.  Lin was benched at times for his poor play last year while Beverley came out of nowhere to put up rugged numbers in limited minutes.  If ever there was a player setup to be toppled by a relatively unknown commodity, it is Mr. Unknown Commodity himself."


*For those of you that track expert rankings, this final list does not make global adjustments for scarcity or add replacement games.  We’re talking true value here at the end of the season.  The list uses a player universe of 16 players on 12 teams with four on the bench, four guards, four forwards, two centers and two utility slots.  Position eligibility was based on ESPN designations in the rare event that scarcity was used as a tiebreaker (typically at the top and bottom of the list).


*ADPs are averaged between 8- and 9-cat leagues, a range suggests a difference in what I see in competitive leagues vs. the ESPN (8-cat) and Yahoo (9-cat) ranks that create the aforementioned average.  

 

Without further ado, the final Bruski 150 for 2013-14:


1    Kevin Durant - (ADP: 1, 9-cat: 1) – Undisputed No. 1 fantasy play.
2    LeBron James – (ADP: 2, 9-cat: 2) – April rest, free throws move him to No. 2.
3    James Harden – (ADP: 3.5, 9-cat: 5) – Tight with CP3 and Steph, durability and pace lift him.
4    Chris Paul – (ADP: 4.5, 9-cat: 3) – Toss up with Steph, knee over ankle for me.
5    Stephen Curry – (ADP: 5, 9-cat: 4) – Has stat set to rule like CP3 once did.  
6    Serge Ibaka -- (ADP: 16.5, 9-cat: 6) – Not just a defender anymore.
7    Anthony Davis -- (ADP: 18.5, 9-cat: 7) – Amazingly, this rank isn’t maxed out.  
8    Paul George – (ADP: 9.5, 9-cat: 11) – Settles in well with even less of the overrated Granger threat.
9    Kevin Love – (ADP: 7.5, 9-cat: 8) – Just a cut below the elite/sub-elite, but easily on top of next tier.
10    Kawhi Leonard – (ADP: 26-50, 9-cat: 10) – Panic at the Disco over this rank. Easily taken in Round 2.
11    Kyrie Irving – (ADP: 7.5, 9-cat: 14) – Durability, small stat blemishes depress his rank. Upside? Yes.
12    Derrick Rose – (ADP: 12, 9-cat: 18) – A late-riser, proved a lot in preseason.
13    Mike Conley – (ADP: 35, 9-cat: 12) – Old reliable edges out a tightly ranked PG bunch.  
14    John Wall – (ADP: 19, 9-cat: 22) – While Conley brings consistency, Wall could finish higher.
15    Al Horford – (ADP: 22, 9-cat: 9) – Look for ATL offense to open up, big pie and only a few mouths.
16    Jeff Teague – (ADP: 58, 9-cat: 24) – Teague and Kawhi are on all of my teams. Championship!
17    Eric Bledsoe – (ADP: 58, 9-cat: 20) – I had to see it with my own eyes and this is where he lands.
18    Nicolas Batum – (ADP: 20, 9-cat: 15) – Late season swoon kept him affordable this year.
19    Ricky Rubio – (ADP: 24, 9-cat: 29) – Potential for best-in-decade thieving spree.
20    Paul Millsap – (ADP: 48, 9-cat: 13) – Another mainstay on my teams. Finally free.
21    Damian Lillard – (ADP: 27, 9-cat: 25) – A solid, safe pick though his minutes will drop.
22    DeMarcus Cousins – (ADP: 38, 9-cat: 30) – Everything goes through Boogie in Sacto.
23    Kemba Walker – (ADP: 42, 9-cat: 21) – A great value and isn’t going to go away with Big Al around.
24    Gordon Hayward – (ADP: 50-80, 9-cat: 31) – De facto PG, get it before it gets too hot.
25    Carmelo Anthony – (ADP: 9, 9-cat: 23) – Low rank could backfire. NY’s ship may sink. Past his peak?
26    Derrick Favors – (ADP: 30-60, 9-cat: 27) – Another guy I wanted to see before lifting so high. I saw.
27    Marc Gasol – (ADP: 12, 9-cat: 17) – Small slides in efficiencies, capable backup in Koufos.
28    Larry Sanders – (ADP: 34, 9-cat: 16) – I did not ding him for underwhelming preseason. Mistake?
29    Rudy Gay – (ADP: 31, 9-cat: 43) – Not giving the rock up to Valanciunas, at least that much.
30    Victor Oladipo – (ADP: 55-95, 9-cat: 66) – Aggressive rank, aggressive player – both him and me.
31    Ty Lawson – (ADP: 34, 9-cat: 32) – Slower pace hurts a tad, do dings finally catch up to him?
32    Roy Hibbert – (ADP: 44, 9-cat: 36) – Surprisingly quiet hype machine kept him affordable.
33    Thaddeus Young – (ADP: 57, 9-cat: 19) – 1-of-2 main options on team whose only hope is running.
34    Deron Williams – (ADP: 14, 9-cat: 49) – Durability, wealth of options in BKY depress his value.
35    Blake Griffin – (ADP: 35, 9-cat: 45) – Another step forward in FTs hard to get behind.
36    Jrue Holiday – (ADP: 45, 9-cat: 59) – Not going to be given all of the keys that he held in PHI.
37    Bradley Beal – (ADP: 40-65, 9-cat: 34) – Looking at a Harden-esque rise for fellow No. 3 pick.
38    Nikola Vucevic – (ADP: 39, 9-cat: 26) – Nothing in the preseason suggests a one-hit wonder.
39    Monta Ellis – (ADP: 40, 9-cat: 56) – Different stomping grounds, same Monta.
40    Jeff Green – (ADP: 61, 9-cat: 44) – Strange exhibition season, he is the Celtics’ foundation.
41    Goran Dragic – (ADP: 66, 9-cat: 69) – Stein trade rumor chilled me out a bit, only can go down.
42    Dwight Howard – (ADP: 23, 9-cat: 70) – Roto rank much lower than head-to-head with punting.
43    Patrick Beverley – (ADP: 119, 9-cat: 37) – Rank based off just 26 mpg. I await your hate mail.
44    Greg Monroe – (ADP: 59, 9-cat: 65) – Forgotten with all the new acquisitions.
45    Brook Lopez – (ADP: 39, 9-cat: 33) – Role not impacted by new guys, but touches are.
46    Enes Kanter – (ADP: 83, 9-cat: 80) – Mixed preseason, skilled enough for me to gamble like this.
47    Jonas Valanciunas – (ADP: 50-75, 9-cat: 42) – Hype chilled out just in time to mellow his ADP.
48    Danny Green – (ADP: 90, 9-cat: 28) – 2.4 projected 3PMs per game will do this to a guy. Cha-ching.
49    Andre Drummond - (ADP: 44-68, 9-cat: 40) – Dwight Jr. has better value in head-to-head.
50    Josh Smith – (ADP: 32, 9-cat: 71) – Overdrafted on name value, also better value in H2H.

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $15,000 Fantasy Basketball league on October, 30th. It's $10 to join and first prize is $2,000. Starts October 30th at 7pm ETHere's the link.


51    O.J. Mayo – (ADP: 76, 9-cat: 72) – Ride these types of values all the way to the title.
52    LaMarcus Aldridge – (ADP: 15, 9-cat: 39) – Missed games, drifting further away from the hoop.
53    Reggie Jackson – (ADP: 75-125, 9-cat: 58) – Lamb biggest threat when RW returns. Will earn mpg.
54    David Lee – (ADP: 37, 9-cat: 53) – Shrinking GSW pie with arrival of Iguodala. Watch Barnes’ foot.
55    George Hill – (ADP: 67, 9-cat: 41) – If you want to wait on PGs, this is a solid target.
56    Al Jefferson – (ADP: 17, 9-cat: 35) – Most controversial in the B150, world says up – I say down.
57    Chris Bosh – (ADP: 40, 9-cat: 48) – Like his buddies, chance for rest hold back otherwise solid play.
58    Russell Westbrook – (ADP: 9-cat: 77) – For final B150 I removed replacement games from analysis.
59    Tim Duncan – (ADP: 38, 9-cat: 46) – Being overdrafted after spectacular 2012-13 campaign.
60    Dwyane Wade – (ADP: 18, 9-cat: 68) – Clearly, the knee and missed game potential scaring me.
61    Pau Gasol – (ADP: 40, 9-cat: 62) – More upside than this rank shows, which is obviously risk-driven.
62    Kyle Lowry – (ADP: 81, 9-cat: 76) – I may regret having him this high, but numerically it’s sound.
63    Isaiah Thomas – (ADP: 99, 9-cat: 73) – Ranking assumes he will earn more minutes than Vasquez.
64    Ryan Anderson – (ADP: 57, 9-cat: 38) – Ranked without chance thin frontcourt forces more mpg.
65    JaVale McGee – (ADP: 87: 9-cat: 74) – Denver to give him every chance to excel.
66    Spencer Hawes – (ADP: 78-118, 9-cat: 78) – Only fear is that he can’t hold up with all the usage.
67    Jimmy Butler – (ADP: 93, 9-cat: 47) – Quietly undervalued, especially in 9-cat leagues.
68    Tyreke Evans – (ADP: 70, 9-cat: 85) – With or without Gordon, will be tasked with attacking rim.
69    Kenneth Faried – (ADP: 78, 9-cat: 51) – Late concern by some about role, trade rumors.
70    Klay Thompson – (ADP: 43, 9-cat: 57) – Shrinking pie in GSW, but Barnes’ foot woes timely for Klay.
71    Chandler Parsons – (ADP: 71, 9-cat: 67) – Very competent wing crew to steal some touches.
72    Kobe Bryant – (ADP: 33, 9-cat: 106) – Very fluid rank, based on (new) Thanksgiving timetable.
73    Amir Johnson – (ADP: 92, 9-cat: 50) – A 9-cat undercover assassin, no Ed Davis to complicate things
74    Tony Parker – (ADP: 32, 9-cat: 87) – Could be low, but rest risk and Kawhi/Belinelli to lighten load.
75    Kevin Martin – (ADP: 95, 9-cat: 52) – Strong target in middle rounds, he and Love primary scorers.
76    Tiago Splitter – (ADP: 115, 9-cat: 55) – Slowly earning Pop’s trust, key to keeping Duncan healthy.
77    Dirk Nowitzki – (ADP: 22, 9-cat: 54) – Talk of high mpg not convincing me DAL gets on his shoulders
78    Tobias Harris – (ADP: 81, 9-cat: 75) – Late ankle injury and quiet preseason keeps him affordable.
79    DeAndre Jordan – (ADP: 82-122, 9-cat: 63) – Hard to deal with the FT issue, but the value is there.
80    Joakim Noah – (ADP: 31, 9-cat: 63) – He could blow this ranking away, but injury concerns present.
81    Wesley Matthews – (ADP: 74, 9-cat: 61) – A deeper backcourt to chip away at Matthews’ value.
82    Paul Pierce – (ADP: 60-80, 9-cat: 79) – Going too early, but will slide in drafts every so often.
83    Evan Turner – (ADP: 93, 9-cat: 127) – If heeeee only had a jumper (If he only had a jumper).
84    Brandon Jennings – (ADP: 41, 9-cat: 88) – Am I the only one wondering if The Game jacked him up?
85    Mario Chalmers – (ADP: 127, 9-cat: 83) – Usually available late, logically will benefit from Big 3 rest
86    Wilson Chandler – (ADP: 106, 9-cat: 84) – Still a value, but that hamstring is buggin yo.
87    David West – (ADP: 61, 9-cat: 86) – Has beat expectations before, but Indy deep this time.
88    Brandon Knight – (ADP: 100, 9-cat: 138) – If he plays like a PG and not a SG, has further upside.
89    Gerald Henderson – (ADP: 107, 9-cat: 94) – Decent value, has downside if asked to stand/watch Al.
90    Kyle Korver – (ADP: 115, 9-cat: 60) – Don’t underestimate how thin the ATL backcourt is.
91    DeMar DeRozan – (ADP: 96, 9-cat: 98) – If heeeee only had a three (if he only had a threeee).
92    Andre Iguodala – (ADP: 61, 9-cat: 112) – Might be low for Barnes’ foot, Klay the real beneficiary.
93    Luol Deng – (ADP: 70, 9-cat: 95) – Rank admittedly low for durability concerns. I may get it wrong.
94    Ersan Ilyasova - (ADP: 47, 9-cat: 90) – Rank doesn’t capture his upside, Henson the issue.
95     Tyson Chandler – (ADP: 82, 9-cat: 82) – See notes on Deng, NYK to play it safe with their main cog.
96    Zach Randolph – (ADP: 64, 9-cat: 96) – Overpriced, target in strong league if you get stls/blks early.
97    Robin Lopez – (ADP: 127, 9-cat: 91) – A popular, strong target late after Leonard demotion.
98    Jeremy Lin – (ADP: 80, 9-cat: 119) – Beverley breathing down his neck, ever-so-slight knee concern.
99    Thabo Sefolosha – (ADP: 140, 9-cat: 81) – Unpopular target b/c standard league value comes early.
100    Michael Carter-Williams – (ADP: 120) – A FG% killer, garbage time a wild card in his equation.

 

Editor's Note: For ongoing premium content including projections, rankings, chats and exclusive content designed to give you a difference-making edge, click here to check out our NBA Season Pass.


101    Carlos Boozer – (ADP: 89, 9-cat: 118) – Gibson, durability main factors. Erosion of ability another?
102    Lance Stephenson – (ADP: 140, 9-cat: 114) – Granger implosion makes him solid target late.
103    Matt Barnes – (ADP: 140, 9-cat: 92) – A 9-cat guy, owners passing up due to lack of upside.
104    Dion Waiters – (ADP: 115, 9-cat: 132) – Hard to credit potential step forward with Jack around.
105    Jose Calderon – (ADP: 70, 9-cat: 108) – Owners chasing the upside, probabilities put him here.
106    Maurice Harkless – (ADP: 115, 9-cat: 93) – Unrecognized upside here if teammates drop like flies.
107    James Anderson – (ADP: 120-170, 9-cat: 136) – Hard to just hand him rank, he has further upside.
108    Nikola Pekovic – (ADP: 69, 9-cat: 105) – Love’s return hurts, hurts as a two-trick pony.
109    DeMarre Carroll – (ADP: 130-170, 9-cat: 90) – Under the radar, solid defender on shallow squad.
110    Samuel Dalembert – (ADP: 110-150, 9-cat: 104) – First crack at center job in Dallas.
111    Vince Carter – (ADP: 139, 9-cat: 102) – If you’re drafting IR guys give him a look for stopgap help.
112    Shawn Marion – (ADP: 126, 9-cat: 99) – See Carter, Vince.
113    Anderson Varejao – (ADP: 104, 9-cat: 93) – Tempting to rank higher, injury history a total gamble.
114    Tristan Thompson – (ADP: 110, 9-cat: 117) – Also tempting to rank higher, too many bodies in CLE.
115    John Henson – (ADP: 130, 9-cat: 124) – Perfect late pick, standalone value chances, big upside.
116    Marcus Thornton – (ADP: 146, 9-cat: 101) – Especially in 9-cat, he should not be overlooked.
117    Kevin Garnett – (ADP: 99, 9-cat: 100) – If you can manage DNPs, I’ve seen him go well after ADP.
118    Marcin Gortat – (ADP: 102, 9-cat: 110) – A fun piece for Wall, going to be touch and go this year.
119    Rajon Rondo – (ADP: 75, 9-cat: 159) – ADP lifted by stashers, this value includes the missed games.
120    Jamal Crawford – (ADP: 106, 9-cat: 128) – Another guy best suited for teams stashing injured folk.
121    Jared Sullinger – (ADP: 150, 9-cat: 97) – Preseason wasn’t amazing, but one of few scorers for BOS.
122    Corey Brewer – (ADP: 152, 9-cat: 123) – Will get a lot of early minutes at SF with Air Bud out.
123    Jameer Nelson – (ADP: 100, 9-cat: 139) – Overdrafted, can bump up if you shorten expectations
124    Markieff Morris – (ADP: 125, 9-cat: 137) – ADP on upswing, has both upside and trouble spots.
125    Iman Shumpert – (ADP: 133, 9-cat: 111) – Shoehorned into rotation but NY figures to play small.
126    J.R. Smith – (ADP: 80, 9-cat: 121) – Could be low, but FG% sort of kills the drill, knee a minor issue.
127    Manu Ginobili – (ADP: 125, 9-cat: 145) – Hard to find upside like this if he has a bounce back year.
128    Alec Burks – (ADP: 144, 9-cat: 204) – Too bad, fantasy game doesn’t translate w/ great opportunity
129    Raymond Felton – (ADP: 100, 9-cat: 141) – Viable backups to cut into his workload.
130    Andrei Kirilenko – (ADP: 120, 9-cat: 134) – A sneaky upside play with dropping ADP due to back.
131    Anthony Bennett – (ADP: 124, 9-cat: 140) – Logjam yes but enough ‘O’ to warrant late round pick.
132    Arron Afflalo – (ADP: 127, 9-cat: 132) – Lack of versatility, but a good fit for teams stashing IR guys.
133    Steve Nash – (ADP: 87, 9-cat: 158) – ADP falling fast, if you can manage DNPs he’s worth a look late
134    Patrick Patterson – (ADP: 188, 9-cat: 107) – Angling toward starting job, key to his value will be 3s.
135    Cody Zeller – (ADP: 111, 122) – A setback with reserve status, could be tough to hold in standards.
136    Taj Gibson – (ADP: 140, 144) – A decent shot at low-end value, playing behind injury prone guys.
137    Dennis Schroeder – (ADP: 140-180, 9-cat: 167) – I waited through his injury to rank, ATL no depth
138    J.J. Hickson – (ADP: 120, 9-cat: 131) – Some say angling to start, I’m not sure. Rank variance minor.
139    Tony Allen – (ADP: 164, 9-cat: 133) – Would help if MEM runs more, a classic deep league play.
140    Jarrett Jack – (ADP: 122, 9-cat: 150) – No reason to doubt he can’t near last year’s role/numbers.
141    Eric Gordon – (ADP: 93, 9-cat: 171) – Much higher per-game rank, don’t hesitate if he slides heavy.
142    Metta World Peace – (ADP: 153, 9-cat: 132) – Will get solid minutes for NYK team weak at PF.
143    Rodney Stuckey – (ADP: 140-180, 9-cat: 153) – If ready, an early year play for teams with IR guys.
144    Danilo Gallinari – (ADP: 133, 9-cat: 134) – Could have issues w/ explosion, solid upside play late.
145    Trey Burke  – (ADP: 110, 9-cat: 175) – Has good upside, but fantasy peripherals are weak.
146    Alex Len – (ADP: 159, 9-cat: 169) – Path is cleared, but he’ll be up and down all year.
147    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – (ADP: 132, 9-cat: 115) – Has foundation for fantasy, just needs to show it.
148    Joe Johnson – (ADP: 100, 9-cat: 142) – Also an injury risk, so many mouths to feed in BKY.
149    Harrison Barnes – (ADP: 122, 9-cat: 149) – Lost a lot of momentum with foot issue.
150    Caron Butler – (ADP: 134, 9-cat: 146) – Good for at least one hot streak before injuries strike.



HONORABLE MENTIONS


Jason Thompson, Carlos Delfino, Chris Kaman, Gerald Wallace, Nene Hilario, Channing Frye, Andrew Bogut, Ray Allen, Brandan Wright, Greivis Vasquez, Ben McLemore, Mo Williams, Luke Ridnour, Jordan Crawford, Kelly Olynyk, Vitor Faverani, Josh McRoberts, Jordan Farmar, Shawne Williams, Omri Casspi, J.J. Redick, Andrew Bynum, Nick Young, Steve Blake, Andre Miller, Andray Blatche, Omer Asik, Jared Dudley, Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, Glen Davis, Elton Brand, John Salmons, Michael Beasley, Jeremy Lamb, J.J. Barea, Miles Plumlee, Lou Williams, Al-Farouq Aminu, Brandon Bass, Jerryd Bayless, Marco Belinelli, Ramon Sessions, Mike Dunleavy, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Martell Webster, Avery Bradley, Shane Battier, C.J. McCollum



Aaron Bruski has been covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld for five years. Hit him on Twitter at Aaronbruski.
Email :Aaron Bruski


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