Ryan Knaus

The Daily Dose

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Dose: The Numbers Game Pt. 3

Friday, March 14, 2014


4.

 

Here’s where things get really interesting.

 

I also computed the points-league values for every player in the NBA over their past 10 games, according to the baseline scoring system I’ve been using throughout this column. Using a ‘percentage-of-the-mean’ calculation I had done earlier for each team’s value to opposing teams, I weighted every player’s 10-day fantasy averages by the (fantasy) strength of the team they are playing on Friday.

 

You can find the player-specific, matchup-weighted values for Friday’s games here.

 

For example, Paul George has averaged 35.5 fantasy points over his past 10 games. His opponent, Philadelphia, has yielded 114.3 percent of the league average to opponents during the same span, so George projects to score 40.6 fantasy points by this rough metric.

 

I say ‘rough metric’ because this misses a number of key factors, including the very category/position data I provided above. I’ve covered a lot of ground already and don’t have the time or space to sufficiently flesh out all of the implications, but maybe next season I’ll be able to combine these data cuts into one reliable and comprehensive system.

 

I’ll conclude with a failed attempt to list each player’s projected dollar-value in daily fantasy sports leagues like FanDuel, assuming a $60,000 salary. I did not include players who are projected to score under 15 fantasy points, as that seemed too scrubby even for a $3,500 player in FanDuel. I tried to quantify how much money each fantasy point is worth given a $60k budget (correcting for what I dubbed the ‘scrub differential’, since many players’ projected values fall below the $3,500 threshold), and you can see what I arrived at in this spreadsheet.  

 

It has many flaws, some of which I’m keenly aware of, some of which I’ve not yet figured out. Ultimately, if you’re willing to play around with the numbers you should find it to be a useful guide.

 

That ends this descent into the statistical rabbit-hole. I’ve updated my rest-of-season schedule grid, so check that out if you’re still grinding away in the fantasy playoffs. As a final reminder… if you follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW and send me a Direct Message, I’ll email you copies of these spreadsheets for you to use/copy the formulas and whatever else you please.



12
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.
Email :Ryan Knaus



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