Ryan Knaus

The Numbers Game

print article archives RSS

Busts & Values for 2013-14

Monday, May 26, 2014


In last week's column, "Rankings in Review," I listed the top 216 players in nine-cat and eight-cat fantasy leagues for the 2013-14 regular season. These per-game rankings were based on standard deviations and z-scores, and they form the basis of today's column — by comparing a player's end-of-season fantasy value to their Average Draft Position (ADP), we can quantify the biggest busts and value-picks for the 2013-14 season.

 

The rankings are my own, but the ADP data is drawn from the National Fantasy Basketball Championship drafts for 2013-14. The NFBKC is a premier site with significant stakes and lucrative pay-outs (the 'main event' paid a $15,000 grand prize this year), and it draws informed and competitive fantasy owners, so the ADP data is as reliable as possible. Also note that I'm using eight-cat rankings to mirror the format of NFBKC's leagues, and my rankings exclude players who averaged less than 20 minutes per game or played in fewer than 30 games.

 

Before looking at the entire list, here are quick lists of the biggest value-picks and busts in typical 12-team, 14-player leagues (aka players with an ADP up to 168). These are based upon 8-cat ranks:

 

Top 15 Value Picks: Lance Stephenson, Randy Foye, Isaiah Thomas, Manu Ginobili, Corey Brewer, Jamal Crawford, Michael Carter-Williams, Mario Chalmers, Robin Lopez, Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo, Kyle Lowry, Kyle Korver, DeMar DeRozan and Nick Young

 

Top-15 Busts: O.J. Mayo, Greivis Vasquez, Ersan Ilyasova, Enes Kanter, Ben McLemore, Danny Granger, Omer Asik, Tiago Splitter, Jonas Valanciunas, Moe Harkless, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, J.J. Hickson, Kevin Garnett, Roy Hibbert

 

It’s worth remembering that this year’s best ‘value picks’ in typical leagues included 14 guards and just one big man (Robin Lopez), whereas the ‘busts’ included only three guards with six forwards and six centers.

 

Now, let's take a look at the complete list of this season's biggest values and busts. There were 37 players who made my top-216 for fantasy value, but whose ADP did not crack the top-250 of the NFBKC. For curiosity's sake, and as a rough gauge of their value, I assigned each of these players an ADP of 250. For example, Jodie Meeks took off thanks to Kobe Bryant's injury-plagued season, and he finished as the No. 55 value in eight-cat leagues. I assigned him a theoretical ADP of 250, even though it was higher than that, and as a result he is the top value in my analysis at +195 (his actual ranking subtracted from his ADP). Players to whom I assigned an ADP of 250 have an asterisk next to their name.

 

Player NameEight-Cat Ranking (2013-14)Average Draft Position (2013-14)Difference between ADP & actual Rank
Jodie Meeks* 55 250.0 195.0
Gerald Green* 60 250.0 190.0
Trevor Ariza 33 182.3 149.3
D.J. Augustin* 105 250.0 145.0
Wes Johnson* 111 250.0 139.0
P.J. Tucker* 115 250.0 135.0
Khris Middleton* 117 250.0 133.0
Kendall Marshall* 120 250.0 130.0
Marco Belinelli* 132 250.0 118.0
Shaun Livingston* 133 250.0 117.0
Timofey Mozgov* 138 250.0 112.0
Terrence Jones 93 203.8 110.8
Marvin Williams* 140 250.0 110.0
Draymond Green* 142 250.0 108.0
Samuel Dalembert* 144 250.0 106.0
James Anderson* 145 250.0 105.0
Kirk Hinrich* 146 250.0 104.0
DeMarre Carroll 71 171.6 100.6
Boris Diaw* 152 250.0 98.0
Lance Stephenson 74 169.2 95.2
Josh McRoberts 116 209.2 93.2
Randy Foye 77 167.8 90.8
Zaza Pachulia* 161 250.0 89.0
Terrence Ross 141 226.7 85.7
Marcus Morris* 166 250.0 84.0
Isaiah Thomas 21 104.9 83.9
Channing Frye 103 185.9 82.9
Steve Blake 139 221.7 82.7
Kyle Singler 156 234.4 78.4
Ryan Kelly* 172 250.0 78.0
Aaron Brooks* 178 250.0 72.0
Manu Ginobili 70 141.6 71.6
Richard Jefferson* 179 250.0 71.0
Brian Roberts* 180 250.0 70.0
Brandon Bass 130 198.9 68.9
Jordan Farmar 127 195.5 68.5
Corey Brewer 100 167.1 67.1
Mike Dunleavy 113 179.6 66.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo* 185 250.0 65.0
Jamal Crawford 57 122.0 65.0
Trevor Booker* 188 250.0 62.0
Michael Carter-Williams 46 107.3 61.3
Shelvin Mack* 191 250.0 59.0
Devin Harris* 192 250.0 58.0
Mario Chalmers 78 135.2 57.2
Robin Lopez 61 117.7 56.7
Darren Collison 104 160.6 56.6
Jason Smith 176 231.4 55.4
Norris Cole* 196 250.0 54.0
Arron Afflalo 79 132.5 53.5
Kyle Lowry 14 67.0 53.0
Chris Douglas-Roberts* 197 250.0 53.0
Matt Barnes 129 181.0 52.0
Kyle Korver 50 101.8 51.8
DeMar DeRozan 43 94.2 51.2
Jordan Hill 148 199.1 51.1
Nick Young 98 148.7 50.7
Dante Cunningham* 200 250.0 50.0
DeAndre Jordan 52 101.0 49.0
Jermaine O'Neal 186 231.3 45.3
Hollis Thompson* 205 250.0 45.0
J.J. Redick 76 121.0 45.0
Anthony Tolliver* 207 250.0 43.0
Andrew Bogut 64 106.1 42.1
Nate Wolters* 208 250.0 42.0
Brandon Knight 66 106.4 40.4
Marcin Gortat 56 95.9 39.9
Spencer Hawes 44 83.4 39.4
Alan Anderson* 211 250.0 39.0
Markieff Morris 86 124.6 38.6
Shane Battier* 212 250.0 38.0
Xavier Henry* 213 250.0 37.0
Gary Neal 199 235.1 36.1
Courtney Lee 154 190.1 36.1
Wesley Matthews 59 94.4 35.4
Shawn Marion 89 124.1 35.1
John Salmons* 215 250.0 35.0
Tony Wroten 193 227.9 34.9
Tony Allen 150 184.4 34.4
Tayshaun Prince* 216 250.0 34.0
Jared Sullinger 125 158.7 33.7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 195 227.5 32.5
Vince Carter 124 155.6 31.6
Goran Dragic 22 51.5 29.5
Patrick Patterson 153 182.2 29.2
Avery Bradley 126 154.8 28.8
Taj Gibson 114 142.8 28.8
Patrick Beverley 96 122.1 26.1
Mike Miller 202 226.0 24.0
Miles Plumlee 155 179.0 24.0
Thaddeus Young 35 58.4 23.4
Ray Allen 147 170.0 23.0
Andray Blatche 137 159.6 22.6
Russell Westbrook 10 31.2 21.2
Joakim Noah 20 41.1 21.1
Gordon Hayward 40 60.8 20.8
Jimmy Butler 67 87.6 20.6
Reggie Jackson 83 102.6 19.6
Rudy Gay 27 46.2 19.2
Blake Griffin 19 38.1 19.1
Dirk Nowitzki 12 30.8 18.8
Kevin Martin 62 80.2 18.2
Andrea Bargnani 122 139.3 17.3
Chandler Parsons 39 56.1 17.1
Chris Bosh 34 48.7 14.7
DeMarcus Cousins 11 25.4 14.4
Joe Johnson 97 110.9 13.9
Jameer Nelson 81 94.9 13.9
Kawhi Leonard 29 42.7 13.7
Paul Millsap 17 30.4 13.4
Eric Bledsoe 26 38.8 12.8
Andre Drummond 53 64.1 11.1
John Henson 119 130.1 11.1
Ramon Sessions 167 177.0 10.0
Tim Duncan 37 46.3 9.3
Paul Pierce 63 72.1 9.1
Nikola Vucevic 42 50.6 8.6
Jordan Crawford 174 182.1 8.1
Ty Lawson 24 31.5 7.5
Victor Oladipo 65 72.4 7.4
Rajon Rondo 68 75.1 7.1
Anthony Davis 6 13.0 7.0
Rodney Stuckey 173 179.7 6.7
Carmelo Anthony 8 12.1 4.1
David West 69 73.1 4.1
Al-Farouq Aminu 171 174.9 3.9
Nikola Pekovic 75 77.5 2.5
Eric Gordon 94 96.4 2.4
Martell Webster 170 172.4 2.4
Caron Butler 149 151.4 2.4
Stephen Curry 2 4.3 2.3
LaMarcus Aldridge 18 19.4 1.4
Jrue Holiday 31 31.9 0.9
Pau Gasol 41 41.9 0.9
Monta Ellis 32 32.4 0.4
Kevin Durant 1 1.1 0.1
Paul George 9 9.1 0.1
Kevin Love 7 6.8 -0.2
Mo Williams 159 158.7 -0.3
Chris Paul 5 4.6 -0.4
James Harden 4 3.4 -0.6
Serge Ibaka 15 14.4 -0.6
John Wall 13 12.4 -0.6
LeBron James 3 1.9 -1.1
Alec Burks 151 148.9 -2.1
Klay Thompson 54 51.6 -2.4
Nene 131 128.4 -2.6
Lou Williams 157 153.9 -3.1
Kenneth Faried 90 86.9 -3.1
Dwyane Wade 28 24.8 -3.2
Amar'e Stoudemire 165 160.4 -4.6
Glen Davis 187 182.3 -4.7
Zach Randolph 84 78.4 -5.6
Jerryd Bayless 190 184.2 -5.8
Al Jefferson 25 18.7 -6.3
Damian Lillard 23 15.8 -7.2
Kyrie Irving 16 7.3 -8.7
Anderson Varejao 109 99.2 -9.8
Tyreke Evans 95 84.7 -10.3
Nicolas Batum 30 19.3 -10.7
J.R. Smith 108 97.1 -10.9
David Lee 51 39.3 -11.7
Jeremy Lin 92 79.8 -12.2
Mike Conley 36 23.4 -12.6
Ricky Rubio 38 25.3 -12.7
Dion Waiters 143 126.3 -16.7
Kemba Walker 45 28.2 -16.8
Thabo Sefolosha 175 157.9 -17.1
Tyson Chandler 110 92.9 -17.1
Jeff Teague 49 31.2 -17.8
Derrick Favors 58 39.5 -18.5
Jose Calderon 80 61.3 -18.7
Amir Johnson 99 80.1 -19.0
Danny Green 106 86.3 -19.7
Wilson Chandler 123 102.2 -20.8
Andre Iguodala 88 66.6 -21.4
Luol Deng 102 80.4 -21.6
Greg Monroe 85 60.4 -24.6
Bradley Beal 82 55.6 -26.4
Trey Burke 135 107.2 -27.8
Brandon Jennings 73 45.0 -28.1
Iman Shumpert 182 153.5 -28.5
Deron Williams 47 17.0 -30.1
Tobias Harris 112 78.8 -33.2
Raymond Felton 128 92.9 -35.1
Marc Gasol 48 12.4 -35.6
Derrick Williams 214 177.9 -36.1
Marcus Thornton 189 149.3 -39.7
Carlos Boozer 136 96.0 -40.0
Jarrett Jack 164 123.9 -40.1
Dwight Howard 72 31.9 -40.1
Jason Thompson 203 160.8 -42.2
George Hill 118 73.3 -44.7
Josh Smith 87 41.0 -46.0
Tony Parker 91 41.4 -49.6
Evan Turner 134 84.1 -49.9
Gerald Henderson 158 106.6 -51.4
Jared Dudley 210 158.1 -51.9
Jeff Green 107 54.8 -52.2
Gerald Wallace 198 145.1 -52.9
Tristan Thompson 169 113.3 -55.7
Roy Hibbert 101 42.5 -58.6
Kevin Garnett 163 104.3 -58.7
J.J. Hickson 183 124.1 -58.9
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 209 149.5 -59.5
Harrison Barnes 194 134.0 -60.0
Maurice Harkless 181 117.8 -63.2
Jonas Valanciunas 121 57.2 -63.8
Tiago Splitter 184 119.4 -64.6
Omer Asik 204 135.4 -68.6
Danny Granger 201 125.5 -75.5
Ben McLemore 206 125.2 -80.8
Enes Kanter 160 72.4 -87.6
Ersan Ilyasova 162 70.3 -91.7
Greivis Vasquez 177 83.5 -93.5
O.J. Mayo 168 57.5 -110.5

 

Note: I've also provided this table on Google Sheets, along with the end-of-season ranking data upon which it is based. Unfortunately, the lovely formatting of my Excel spreadsheets doesn't translate to Google's system. If you want the original documents, just send me a note with your email address on Twitter (@Knaus_RW) and I will email you my original file with all the formulas, etc. It took a long time to compile all of this data and to make these charts, so I'm all for sharing it with those people interested enough to reach out.

 

Overall, this table shows 137 players exceeding their ADP with 79 players losing value. It is skewed in favor of 'value-picks' because, as noted, I assigned an ADP to players who went undrafted in most NFBKC leagues and also tossed out players who were drafted but didn't meet my original 20-minute/30-game criteria. Low-end players therefore surged in value, while some high-profile busts like Kobe Bryant, Al Horford and others were excluded entirely.

 

Unsurprisingly, ranked players whose ADP slipped beyond 250 are considered terrific value picks, and they comprise 13 of the top 15 players in my complete list (Trevor Ariza and Terrence Jones are the exceptions). All of the top-10 values are PGs, SGs or SFs, with Timofey Mozgov* finally breaking the streak as the No. 11 value.

 


continue story »
12
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.
Email :Ryan Knaus



Highest Searched Players over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    CFB: Opening weekend

    CFB: Opening weekend
  •  
    Rookie Watch: WR Benjamin

    Rookie Watch: WR Benjamin
  •  
    Rookie Watch: RB Freeman

    Rookie Watch: RB Freeman
  •  
    Rookie Watch: RB Sankey

    Rookie Watch: RB Sankey
  •  
    Levitan: Sleeper options

    Levitan: Sleeper options
  •  
    Value: WR Brandin Cooks

    Value: WR Brandin Cooks
  •  
    Value: WR Jordan Matthews

    Value: WR Jordan Matthews
  •  
    A&M - So. Carolina preview

    A&M - So. Carolina preview