Aaron Bruski

Saturday Dose

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A Look Back at the Bruski 150

Saturday, June 07, 2014


Long time no talk, folks.  I hope you’re all enjoying the playoffs and how could you not now that we’re back to the Spurs and the Heat already punching it out.  With all the time between the games it’s a perfect time to take a look back at the rankings, and while we’re at it I’ll break out a quick look at the Bruski 150 and how it did.  As usual, these are roto ranks (the only way to play the game in my opinion) and I also organize the list by 8-cat, primarily, which along with roto is the only way to play (IMO).  The ranks are cumulative, so games played is a factor just as it was when you set your lineup all year long.  Here’s a big shout to the Basketball Monster guys for the data, and off we go….

 

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8-cat rankPlayerGamesADP (8)B150 (8-cat)9-cat rankADP (9)B150 (9-cat)
1 Durant, Kevin 81 1 1 1 1 1
2 Curry, Stephen 78 5 5 2 5 4
3 James, LeBron 77 2 2 3 2 2
4 Love, Kevin 77 7.5 9 4 7.5 8
5 Harden, James 73 3.5 3 8 3.5 5
6 Anthony, Carmelo 77 9 25 7 9 23
7 George, Paul 80 9.5 8 11 9.5 11
8 Wall, John 82 19 14 14 19 22
9 Nowitzki, Dirk 80 22 77 6 22 54
10 Davis, Anthony 67 18.5 7 5 18.5 7
11 Paul, Chris 62 4.5 4 10 4.5 3
12 Lowry, Kyle 79 81 62 12 81 76

 

Notes: Durant was a golden god and Curry showed what 78 games of fury looks like. LeBron fizzled as his blocks evaporated and Kevin Love shook off the injury risk. Harden’s late charge saved him from being a total loss, while fellow top-5 pick Chris Paul’s 62 games were a big loss for owners. Carmelo Anthony outperformed expectations and Paul George slid into his ADP for the most part. John Wall was a big win and Dirk was an even bigger win. Kyle Lowry came out of nowhere to carry teams to titles and Anthony Davis lived up to the hype, even though he missed 15 games.

 

8-cat rankPlayerGamesADP (8)B150 (8-cat)9-cat rankADP (9)B150 (9-cat)
13 Ibaka, Serge 81 16.5 6 9 16.5 6
14 Griffin, Blake 80 35 35 15 35 45
15 Noah, Joakim 80 31 80 13 31 63
16 Cousins, DeMarcus 71 38 22 28 38 30
17 Lillard, Damian 82 27 21 17 27 25
18 Dragic, Goran 76 66 41 25 66 69
19 Batum, Nicolas 82 20 18 24 20 15
20 Ellis, Monta 82 40 39 41 40 56
21 Millsap, Paul 74 48 20 21 48 13
22 Rubio, Ricky 82 24 19 33 24 29
23 Irving, Kyrie 71 7.5 11 30 7.5 14
24 Young, Thaddeus 79 57 33 26 57 19
25 Thomas, Isaiah 72 99 63 38 99 73
26 Jefferson, Al 73 17 56 16 17 35
27 Bosh, Chris 79 40 57 18 40 48
28 Ariza, Trevor 77 NR 179 22 NR 179
29 Jordan, DeAndre 82 122 79 20 82 63
30 Aldridge, LaMarcus 69 15 52 23 15 39
31 Drummond, Andre 81 68 49 19 44 40
32 Gay, Rudy 73 31 29 47 31 43
33 Hawes, Spencer 80 118 66 36 78 78
34 Hayward, Gordon 77 50 24 50 80 31
35 DeRozan, DeMar 79 96 91 42 96 98
36 Conley, Mike 73 35 13 37 35 12
37 Teague, Jeff 79 58 16 59 58 24
38 Duncan, Tim 74 38 59 40 38 46
39 Parsons, Chandler 74 71 71 35 71 67
40 Thompson, Klay 81 43 70 34 43 57
41 Gortat, Marcin 81 102 118 31 102 110
42 Matthews, Wesley 82 74 81 32 74 61
43 Lopez, Robin 82 127 97 27 127 91
44 Green, Gerald 82 NR NR 44 NR NR
45 Leonard, Kawhi 66 50 10 29 26 10
46 Meeks, Jodie 77 NR NR 39 NR NR
47 Walker, Kemba 73 42 23 54 42 21
48 Oladipo, Victor 80 55 30 101 95 66

 

Notes: Serge Ibaka beat his ADP but didn’t live up to my lofty 8-cat ranking, though he came close in 9-cat. Aside from Russell Westbrook’s injury healing up quickly, Scotty didn’t really care about structuring the offense in a way that used the unique big man’s skill-set. Blake Griffin improved his free throw shooting and it helped in a big way. Hopefully the low B150 rating on Kyrie Irving kept some folks away.

 

Paul Millsap and Thaddeus Young were big wins, while uber-consistent Mike Conley was a frustrating loss due to ankle issues. With third round value the controversial LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson rankings ended up being a wash. They didn’t live up to their draft day ADP and by that hopefully my rankings dissuaded folks from jumping on board, but they both managed to stay healthy and effective enough to put some heavy distance between their actual ranks and my ranks. Would I take the bet again? Yep. I’m borderline shocked that Al lasted as well as he did and Aldridge reversed some career trends and bucked efficiency norms (more shots without a drastic impact on FG%) as both guys operated at or around their ceilings.

 

Kawhi Leonard hurt, however, and though we saw what he was capable of with a blistering late-season run his missed games and lack of a solid start killed his rankings. Hopefully owners used his ADP as a guide and didn’t overpay for him. Other wins included Isaiah Thomas, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic and Gordon Hayward, while Joakim Noah, Tim Duncan, and Chris Bosh were all losses – reminding folks that aging or injury-risk All Stars can often post solid returns. Klay Thompson and Chandler Parsons weren’t losses by the ADP, but I’m not sure that the ADP truly reflected where they were going in competitive leagues. I was happy with where Victor Oladipo landed in the 8-cat rankings after I had him so high.

 

8-cat rankPlayerGamesADP (8)B150 (8-cat)9-cat rankADP (9)B150 (9-cat)
49 Lawson, Ty 62 34 31 70 34 32
50 Carter-Williams, Michael 70 120 100 103 120 NR
51 West, David 80 61 87 46 61 86
52 Jennings, Brandon 80 41 84 91 41 88
53 Monroe, Greg 82 59 44 60 59 65
54 Korver, Kyle 71 115 90 43 115 60
55 Stephenson, Lance 78 140 102 89 140 114
56 Calderon, Jose 81 70 105 45 70 108
57 Foye, Randy 81 NR NR 56 NR NR
58 Favors, Derrick 73 60 26 51 30 27
59 Pierce, Paul 75 60 82 63 79 79
60 Lee, David 69 37 54 61 37 53
61 Jackson, Reggie 80 75 53 76 125 58
62 Faried, Kenneth 80 78 69 57 78 51
63 Morris, Markieff 81 125 124 67 125 137
64 Randolph, Zach 79 64 96 84 64 96
65 Brewer, Corey 81 152 122 53 152 123
66 Howard, Dwight 71 23 42 117 23 70
67 Williams, Deron 64 14 34 72 14 49
68 Smith, Josh 77 32 50 109 32 71
69 Knight, Brandon 72 100 88 105 100 138
70 Frye, Channing 82 NR 156 52 NR -
71 Carroll, DeMarre 73 130 109 48 170 90
72 Chalmers, Mario 73 127 85 88 127 83
73 Collison, Darren 80 NR NR 71 NR NR
74 Johnson, Joe 79 100 148 68 100 142
75 Hibbert, Roy 81 44 32 79 44 36
76 Marion, Shawn 76 126 112 55 126 99
77 Green, Jeff 82 61 40 99 61 44
78 Crawford, Jamal 69 106 120 78 106 128
79 Johnson, Amir 77 92 73 69 92 50
80 Jones, Terrence 76 NR 196 104 NR 196
81 Dunleavy, Mike 82 NR 193 66 NR 193
82 Gibson, Taj 82 140 136 85 140 144
83 Tucker, PJ 81 NR NR 62 NR NR
84 Middleton, Khris 82 NR NR 75 NR NR
85 Bogut, Andrew 67 - 157 58 - 157
86 Westbrook, Russell 46 - 58 112 - 77
87 Gasol, Pau 60 40 61 86 40 62
88 Afflalo, Arron 73 127 132 96 127 132
89 Wade, Dwyane 54 18 60 102 18 68
90 Johnson, Wes 79 NR NR 64 NR NR
91 Beal, Bradley 73 40-65 37 87 40-65 34
92 Martin, Kevin 68 95 75 73 95 52
93 McRoberts, Josh 78 NR 167 65 NR 167
94 Ginobili, Manu 68 125 127 98 125 145
95 Butler, Jimmy 67 93 67 74 93 47
96 Valanciunas, Jonas 81 50-75 47 95 50-75 42

 

Notes: Kyle Korver and Lance Stephenson paid off well and were trailed in 8-cat by a pair of overachievers in Jose Calderon and waiver-wire wonder Randy FoyeDerrick Favors was a big loss for me and along with his teammate Enes Kanter I cost a lot of you some jack.  I didn’t foresee a few things there, including the idea that Ty Corbin would be given so much rope to try and win games with Marvin Williams, and it’s unclear whether it was the chicken or the egg when it came to the youngsters’ lack of development.  Kanter, in particular, looked terrible as his feet were rooted into the ground.  Favors may have been playing injured.  New coach Quin Snyder should be more willing to develop them with nowhere to go but up for all involved. 

 

Reggie Jackson scared me all year but he scraped up against my 8-cat ranking, and it was funny to see everybody get all hot and bothered about Brooks moving him into the starting lineup during the playoffs.  Common sense everybody!  I’ve tired of this storyline about Brooks and his coaching, especially since the damage has been happening for four years, but it really can’t go away since the Thunder have the talent to expect championships and everybody is really confused about why they aren’t putting their best foot forward.  The bar is so low here that Twitter barely makes a sound when Kendrick Perkins gets more run than Steven Adams against the Spurs, or the bench can’t perform because the veterans were developed all season in lieu of the raw, young and important guys. 

 

Hopefully I scared some folks away from Deron Williams.  Yeesh.  Ditto Josh Smith.  I was simply happy to have Channing Frye on the sheet and he quietly had a great, understated year (at least until the end).  Mario Chalmers was another quiet win for me, while Joe Johnson finally got me after all these years of successfully fading him. 

 

Speaking of fading, the Twitterati talk about Roy Hibbert’s defense is your echo-chamber event of the year and I wonder how long it will take folks to figure out that he's closer to average than elite.  I thought he’d take a step forward this season but his lack of athleticism made him a liability way too much. It’s hard to listen to talk about his prowess when teams regularly targeted him when on the floor.  Teams stay away from top-tier defenders, and that's really the bottom line.  Folks really ought to reevaluate attaching opposing squads’ FG% at the rim solely to the big man.  He’s surrounded by scores of athletic defenders and that’s probably where the disconnect is between perception and reality. 

 

I’m kicking myself for not having Terrence Jones higher (within reason).  I had him floating around the bottom of the 150 until I chickened out at the end.  His D-League stats and other indicators wholly supported his relative breakout.  Andrew Bogut destroyed me this year by being healthy, and then he destroyed fan-me by missing the NBA playoffs.   

 

Russell Westbrook ended up being more trouble than he was worth, but I think he’s the No. 3 player in the NBA right now, so put that in your corn-cob pipe and smoke it.  Dwyane Wade predictably fell like a rock.  Neither Bradley Beal nor Jonas Valanciunas lived up to the hype.  I saw the JV drop coming but didn’t have the stones to lower him, while the Beal situation deteriorated as his defense didn’t hold and his numbers didn’t take the leap that many hoped. 

 

Another guy that didn’t take the leap was Jimmy Butler, who couldn’t break the Mendoza line from the field (39.7%) and in return his owners took a loss. 

 


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Aaron Bruski has been covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld for five years. Hit him on Twitter at Aaronbruski.
Email :Aaron Bruski



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