UPDATE: As of 10/24 the newest projections & ranks can be downloaded by clicking here! In addition to altered numbers, I fixed a weighting error relating to games played, and I've added a sheet with specific punting values by category...enjoy! You can also access the spreadsheet via Google Sheets here.
Welcome to the 2016-17 edition of my rankings and stat projections! There's a lot to cover so I'll skip a lengthy preamble, but there are some important points worth making.
1) These rankings are the byproduct of my own projections, which don't reflect any sort of Rotoworld consensus. If you're interested in my methodology, contact me and I'll be happy to explain. Draft Guide members can access the entire spreadsheet which is the basis of these rankings...more on that later.
2) These are roto rankings, both per game and cumulative (weighted by projected games played). Owners in head-to-head leagues can use this as a road map to value, but your own draft-day strategy is a massive and unquantifiable X-factor. If you ignore free throws, for instance, Andre Drummond's absurd FT% anchor vanishes and he becomes the 5th most valuable player in 9-cat. DeAndre Jordan isn't far behind at No. 9 overall.
3) You will disagree with me...and that's a good thing! Everyone has their own expectations for breakout players, which veterans will fade, etc. Even I won't draft this list like an automaton. Early-round picks determine how to build your team in the middle and late rounds. League depth, personal strategy, the preferences of opposing GMs, league settings (e.g. injury-reserve spots, caps on waiver wire moves) -- it all has a huge impact on how to value players. CONTEXT IS KING.
4) Anyone reading this is free to peruse my complete projections and rankings on Google Sheets by clicking here.
5) For Draft Guide subscribers, these rankings and projections are interactive -- check out my projections/ranks column in the DG to learn how to access the original Excel spreadsheet with all of my formulas intact. If you think Blake Griffin will play 82 games this year (rather than the 69 games at which I've projected him), simply change that number in the spreadsheet and everything will update automatically.
If you're scandalized by the thought that Steph Curry will repeat as the most valuable player in 9-cat leagues, or by my projections for Dario Saric (11.6 points, 0.7 threes, 5.8 boards, 2.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.3 turnovers, with 44.5% FGs, 75% FTs), go ahead and alter their projected numbers...all of the means, standard deviations, z-scores and conditional formatting will update automatically as you tweak to your heart's content.
6) To reiterate...When you inevitably disagree with rankings, you can a) ignore them, or b) access the spreadsheet and change them yourself. You can view the entire set of projections here. If you want to download the spreadsheet with formulas embedded, head to the Draft Guide.
Editor's note: Get the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide! Customizable projections, 350 player profiles, multiple mock drafts, Tiers, sleepers, busts, rookies and a schedule break down are just a few of the highlights. Dominate your draft!!
Without further ado, here are the projected values, beginning with 8-cat:
*Values as of Oct. 12, 2016...these tables won't reflect subsequent updates, but the projections will*
Continue for 9-cat.