Ryan Knaus

The Numbers Game

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Ranks & Projections: 2016-17

Wednesday, October 12, 2016


UPDATE: As of 10/24 the newest projections & ranks can be downloaded by clicking here! In addition to altered numbers, I fixed a weighting error relating to games played, and I've added a sheet with specific punting values by category...enjoy! You can also access the spreadsheet via Google Sheets here.

 

Welcome to the 2016-17 edition of my rankings and stat projections! There's a lot to cover so I'll skip a lengthy preamble, but there are some important points worth making.

 

1) These rankings are the byproduct of my own projections, which don't reflect any sort of Rotoworld consensus. If you're interested in my methodology, contact me and I'll be happy to explain. Draft Guide members can access the entire spreadsheet which is the basis of these rankings...more on that later.

 

2) These are roto rankings, both per game and cumulative (weighted by projected games played). Owners in head-to-head leagues can use this as a road map to value, but your own draft-day strategy is a massive and unquantifiable X-factor. If you ignore free throws, for instance, Andre Drummond's absurd FT% anchor vanishes and he becomes the 5th most valuable player in 9-cat. DeAndre Jordan isn't far behind at No. 9 overall.

 

3) You will disagree with me...and that's a good thing! Everyone has their own expectations for breakout players, which veterans will fade, etc. Even I won't draft this list like an automaton. Early-round picks determine how to build your team in the middle and late rounds. League depth, personal strategy, the preferences of opposing GMs, league settings (e.g. injury-reserve spots, caps on waiver wire moves) -- it all has a huge impact on how to value players. CONTEXT IS KING.

 

4) Anyone reading this is free to peruse my complete projections and rankings on Google Sheets by clicking here.

 

5) For Draft Guide subscribers, these rankings and projections are interactive -- check out my projections/ranks column in the DG to learn how to access the original Excel spreadsheet with all of my formulas intact. If you think Blake Griffin will play 82 games this year (rather than the 69 games at which I've projected him), simply change that number in the spreadsheet and everything will update automatically.

 

If you're scandalized by the thought that Steph Curry will repeat as the most valuable player in 9-cat leagues, or by my projections for Dario Saric (11.6 points, 0.7 threes, 5.8 boards, 2.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.3 turnovers, with 44.5% FGs, 75% FTs), go ahead and alter their projected numbers...all of the means, standard deviations, z-scores and conditional formatting will update automatically as you tweak to your heart's content.

 

6) To reiterate...When you inevitably disagree with rankings, you can a) ignore them, or b) access the spreadsheet and change them yourself. You can view the entire set of projections here. If you want to download the spreadsheet with formulas embedded, head to the Draft Guide.

 

Editor's note: Get the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide! Customizable projections, 350 player profiles, multiple mock drafts, Tiers, sleepers, busts, rookies and a schedule break down are just a few of the highlights. Dominate your draft!!

 

Without further ado, here are the projected values, beginning with 8-cat:

 

*Values as of Oct. 12, 2016...these tables won't reflect subsequent updates, but the projections will*

Name

Total 8-cat Value

Rank

Name

8-cat Weighted by Projected Games

James Harden

17.37

1

James Harden

17.17

Stephen Curry

17.30

2

Stephen Curry

16.43

Russell Westbrook

15.55

3

Russell Westbrook

14.80

Kevin Durant

14.84

4

Kevin Durant

13.80

Anthony Davis

13.59

5

Karl-Anthony Towns

12.55

Kawhi Leonard

12.88

6

Kawhi Leonard

11.51

Karl-Anthony Towns

12.62

7

Chris Paul

11.00

Chris Paul

12.13

8

Paul George

10.91

Hassan Whiteside

11.45

9

Giannis Antetokounmpo

10.85

DeMarcus Cousins

11.26

10

Paul Millsap

10.46

Paul George

11.25

11

Anthony Davis

10.45

Damian Lillard

11.19

12

Damian Lillard

10.45

Giannis Antetokounmpo

11.17

13

Hassan Whiteside

10.28

Kyle Lowry

10.81

14

Kyle Lowry

10.22

Paul Millsap

10.77

15

LeBron James

9.92

LeBron James

10.62

16

John Wall

9.66

John Wall

10.34

17

DeMarcus Cousins

9.52

Al Horford

9.04

18

Al Horford

8.83

Jimmy Butler

8.99

19

Draymond Green

8.64

Draymond Green

8.96

20

Isaiah Thomas

8.57

Kemba Walker

8.65

21

Kemba Walker

8.23

Victor Oladipo

8.54

22

Nikola Jokic

8.03

Isaiah Thomas

8.53

23

Kristaps Porzingis

8.00

Kristaps Porzingis

8.50

24

Jimmy Butler

7.77

Jrue Holiday

8.34

25

Victor Oladipo

7.70

Kyrie Irving

8.10

26

Kyrie Irving

7.32

Nikola Jokic

7.98

27

Klay Thompson

7.08

Eric Bledsoe

8.33

28

C.J. McCollum

6.96

Blake Griffin

7.72

29

Jrue Holiday

6.89

Pau Gasol

7.71

30

Eric Bledsoe

6.89

Carmelo Anthony

7.54

31

Kevin Love

6.82

Brook Lopez

7.46

32

Pau Gasol

6.81

Klay Thompson

7.30

33

Blake Griffin

6.80

Gordon Hayward

7.30

34

Brook Lopez

6.78

Kevin Love

7.02

35

Carmelo Anthony

6.64

Goran Dragic

6.97

36

Goran Dragic

6.60

Ricky Rubio

6.95

37

DeMar DeRozan

6.59

LaMarcus Aldridge

6.94

38

Ricky Rubio

6.58

Mike Conley

6.93

39

LaMarcus Aldridge

6.51

C.J. McCollum

6.90

40

Serge Ibaka

6.51

Marc Gasol

6.81

41

Trevor Ariza

6.50

Jeff Teague

6.76

42

Jeff Teague

6.49

DeMar DeRozan

6.76

43

Gorgui Dieng

6.38

Nicolas Batum

6.69

44

Mike Conley

6.30

Serge Ibaka

6.67

45

Dennis Schroder

6.27

Nikola Vucevic

6.54

46

Nicolas Batum

6.09

Trevor Ariza

6.44

47

Andrew Wiggins

5.95

Dennis Schroder

6.36

48

Jae Crowder

5.87

Gorgui Dieng

6.27

49

Nikola Vucevic

5.79

Reggie Jackson

6.20

50

D'Angelo Russell

5.72

Jae Crowder

6.18

51

Gordon Hayward

5.70

Rudy Gay

6.14

52

Marc Gasol

5.70

Nerlens Noel

6.13

53

Jeremy Lin

5.67

Robert Covington

6.04

54

Rudy Gobert

5.52

Ryan Anderson

5.96

55

Rudy Gay

5.45

Rudy Gobert

5.92

56

Nerlens Noel

5.44

Derrick Favors

5.87

57

Robert Covington

5.35

Jeremy Lin

5.87

58

Evan Fournier

5.34

Andrew Wiggins

5.84

59

Monta Ellis

5.32

Rajon Rondo

5.69

60

Jonas Valanciunas

5.28

Darren Collison

5.67

61

Greg Monroe

5.27

D'Angelo Russell

5.64

62

Derrick Favors

5.22

Jonas Valanciunas

5.57

63

Tobias Harris

5.21

Dwyane Wade

5.57

64

Ryan Anderson

5.15

Tobias Harris

5.51

65

Rajon Rondo

5.06

Evan Fournier

5.37

66

Jabari Parker

5.04

Greg Monroe

5.28

67

Marcin Gortat

5.03

Dirk Nowitzki

5.24

68

Darren Collison

4.91

Monta Ellis

5.23

69

Dwyane Wade

4.90

Marcin Gortat

5.16

70

Dirk Nowitzki

4.83

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

5.09

71

Myles Turner

4.80

Jabari Parker

5.05

72

Zach LaVine

4.79

Brandon Knight

5.02

73

Jordan Clarkson

4.70

Myles Turner

4.98

74

Enes Kanter

4.66

Danilo Gallinari

4.73

75

George Hill

4.50

Chandler Parsons

4.73

76

Robin Lopez

4.50

Jordan Clarkson

4.71

77

Avery Bradley

4.45

Bradley Beal

4.67

78

Brandon Knight

4.43

George Hill

4.67

79

Reggie Jackson

4.40

Zach LaVine

4.67

80

Devin Booker

4.38

Nikola Mirotic

4.63

81

Nikola Mirotic

4.35

Joel Embiid

4.62

82

Kent Bazemore

4.30

Avery Bradley

4.58

83

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

4.29

Enes Kanter

4.50

84

Thaddeus Young

4.25

Devin Booker

4.47

85

Danny Green

4.18

Kent Bazemore

4.45

86

Otto Porter

4.14

Thaddeus Young

4.42

87

Buddy Hield

4.14

Robin Lopez

4.32

88

Bradley Beal

4.13

Otto Porter

4.29

89

Chandler Parsons

4.01

Buddy Hield

4.27

90

Markieff Morris

3.86

Joakim Noah

4.25

91

Marvin Williams

3.85

Eric Gordon

4.23

92

Danilo Gallinari

3.84

Danny Green

4.08

93

Justise Winslow

3.81

Tyreke Evans

4.01

94

Emmanuel Mudiay

3.80

Andrew Bogut

4.01

95

J.J. Redick

3.79

Markieff Morris

3.97

96

Wesley Matthews

3.79

Deron Williams

3.95

97

Joel Embiid

3.76

Jusuf Nurkic

3.93

98

Joakim Noah

3.63

Emmanuel Mudiay

3.92

99

Harrison Barnes

3.57

Gary Harris

3.80

100

Steven Adams

3.52

Marvin Williams

3.78

101

Andrew Bogut

3.50

J.J. Redick

3.78

102

Will Barton

3.50

Justise Winslow

3.76

103

Kris Dunn

3.48

Wesley Matthews

3.74

104

Jusuf Nurkic

3.47

Marcus Smart

3.71

105

Gary Harris

3.41

Jahlil Okafor

3.67

106

Eric Gordon

3.39

Harrison Barnes

3.60

107

Deron Williams

3.34

Will Barton

3.42

108

Aaron Gordon

3.33

Dwight Howard

3.41

109

Marcus Smart

3.28

DeMarre Carroll

3.37

110

Jahlil Okafor

3.27

Aaron Gordon

3.34

111

Julius Randle

3.26

Steven Adams

3.34

112

Elfrid Payton

3.17

Kris Dunn

3.32

113

Dwight Howard

3.16

Elfrid Payton

3.13

114

Jared Sullinger

3.10

Julius Randle

3.09

115

Timofey Mozgov

3.04

Timofey Mozgov

3.08

116

Rodney Hood

3.03

Jared Sullinger

3.00

117

JaMychal Green

3.01

Kyle Korver

2.94

118

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

2.99

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

2.94

119

Kyle Korver

2.97

Rodney Hood

2.93

120

DeMarre Carroll

2.95

Lou Williams

2.91

121

Andre Drummond

2.86

JaMychal Green

2.90

122

Lou Williams

2.65

Derrick Rose

2.84

123

Courtney Lee

2.50

Patrick Beverley

2.80

124

Derrick Rose

2.45

Andre Drummond

2.74

125

Patrick Beverley

2.42

J.R. Smith

2.47

126

Marcus Morris

2.40

Josh Richardson

2.41

127

J.R. Smith

2.35

Courtney Lee

2.37

128

Alex Len

2.34

Alex Len

2.28

129

Evan Turner

2.33

Marcus Morris

2.26

130

Josh Richardson

2.21

Cody Zeller

2.20

131

Kenneth Faried

2.15

Kenneth Faried

2.14

132

Al-Farouq Aminu

2.13

Evan Turner

2.11

133

Mason Plumlee

2.10

Brandon Ingram

2.02

134

Brandon Ingram

2.10

Manu Ginobili

2.00

135

Cody Zeller

2.00

Willie Cauley-Stein

1.99

136

Willie Cauley-Stein

1.99

Al-Farouq Aminu

1.92

137

Mirza Teletovic

1.91

Mason Plumlee

1.88

138

Tristan Thompson

1.91

Michael Carter-Williams

1.86

139

Joe Johnson

1.89

Luol Deng

1.84

140

Clint Capela

1.87

Tony Parker

1.84

141

Luol Deng

1.85

Mirza Teletovic

1.80

142

Tony Parker

1.81

Clint Capela

1.76

143

Manu Ginobili

1.77

Joe Johnson

1.72

144

Tim Frazier

1.74

Tim Frazier

1.67

145

Jamal Crawford

1.74

Dario Saric

1.65

146

Matt Barnes

1.73

T.J. Warren

1.64

147

Michael Carter-Williams

1.70

Matt Barnes

1.65

148

Patrick Patterson

1.70

Tristan Thompson

1.63

149

Zach Randolph

1.67

Zach Randolph

1.60

150

Dario Saric

1.66

Jamal Crawford

1.58

151

T.J. Warren

1.63

Tyler Johnson

1.54

152

Bojan Bogdanovic

1.63

Patrick Patterson

1.52

153

Taj Gibson

1.49

Bojan Bogdanovic

1.44

154

Patty Mills

1.49

Taj Gibson

1.42

155

Tyler Johnson

1.44

Ben Simmons

1.36

156

DeAndre Jordan

1.39

Terrence Jones

1.32

157

Matthew Dellavedova

1.38

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

1.31

158

Allen Crabbe

1.36

Patty Mills

1.26

159

Stanley Johnson

1.35

Omri Casspi

1.26

160

Terrence Jones

1.32

Matthew Dellavedova

1.24

161

Omri Casspi

1.26

Stanley Johnson

1.22

162

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

1.23

DeAndre Jordan

1.19

163

Wesley Johnson

1.23

Seth Curry

1.15

164

Kyle Anderson

1.19

Allen Crabbe

1.12

165

Seth Curry

1.18

Tony Allen

1.06

166

Ish Smith

1.11

Brandon Jennings

1.04

167

Solomon Hill

1.07

David Lee

1.00

168

Bismack Biyombo

1.06

Wesley Johnson

1.00

169

Tony Allen

1.02

Kyle Anderson

0.98

170

Jamal Murray

1.01

Solomon Hill

0.95

171

Jon Leuer

1.00

Ish Smith

0.91

172

David Lee

0.99

C.J. Miles

0.91

173

Amir Johnson

0.96

Jon Leuer

0.89

174

Ersan Ilyasova

0.94

Miles Plumlee

0.89

175

C.J. Miles

0.92

Jamal Murray

0.84

176

Miles Plumlee

0.92

Ersan Ilyasova

0.84

177

Al Jefferson

0.84

Al Jefferson

0.79

178

Darrell Arthur

0.83

Bismack Biyombo

0.79

179

Zaza Pachulia

0.83

Amir Johnson

0.75

180

Jared Dudley

0.82

Darrell Arthur

0.68

181

Trey Lyles

0.79

Brandan Wright

0.66

182

Brandan Wright

0.76

Andre Iguodala

0.62

183

Mario Hezonja

0.73

Zaza Pachulia

0.62

184

Andre Iguodala

0.72

Wilson Chandler

0.61

185

Jerryd Bayless

0.66

Jared Dudley

0.60

186

Roy Hibbert

0.63

Nene

0.57

187

Thabo Sefolosha

0.63

Jerryd Bayless

0.57

188

Tyson Chandler

0.63

Trey Lyles

0.54

189

Sean Kilpatrick

0.62

Tyson Chandler

0.50

190

Shaun Livingston

0.56

Mario Hezonja

0.49

191

John Henson

0.49

P.J. Tucker

0.49

192

Arron Afflalo

0.25

Sean Kilpatrick

0.45

193

Terrence Ross

0.18

Thabo Sefolosha

0.43

194

Dwight Powell

0.15

Roy Hibbert

0.37

195

Jerami Grant

0.10

Shaun Livingston

0.32

196

Ed Davis

0.09

John Henson

0.28

197

Derrick Williams

0.08

Jarrett Jack

0.27

198

David West

0.07

Iman Shumpert

0.02

199

Jeff Green

0.03

Arron Afflalo

0.00

200

Dion Waiters

0.00

 

 

Continue for 9-cat.