Ryan Knaus

The Numbers Game

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Fantasy Values: Roto & DFS

Wednesday, March 29, 2017


With the regular season nearly over, every decision made by fantasy owners is magnified. Do you roll the dice on an injured stud, or play it safe with a healthy role player? Are three games from Jae Crowder superior to four games from Marquese Chriss? Should you make a final push to move up in assists in a roto league, or focus on sustaining your lead in big-man categories?   In last week's column, we looked at strength of schedule for every team, to determine how matchups might impact fantasy values (I'm also including an updated version of my strength-of-schedule tables...see below). This week we're putting individual value front and center, looking at 8-cat, 9-cat and DFS values for the top-200 players over the past three weeks.   Why three weeks? It averages out to about 10 games per player, which is sizeable enough to temper any fluky games (Devin Booker's 70-point explosion) but current enough to reflect recent trends. I'm avoiding past-10-game data for the player values because that also captures injured guys like Zach LaVine, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid, who aren't relevant for rest-of-season purposes.   Bear in mind this isn't a statement about what's to come, it's a reflection of what just occurred -- the values below are useful guidelines, but they're not the law. For instance, the Nuggets have the worst strength of schedule remaining, which could bump a guy like Markieff Morris below someone like Caris LeVert, since the Nets have the third-best SoS.   Speaking of strength of schedule, let's look at that first. This is 'updated' in the sense that it reflects each team's remaining games. I did not update the opposing-team values to include games from Mar. 22-Mar. 28, but they still offer a reliable sign-post for which teams have favorable or unfavorable rest-of-season matchups.


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With that in mind, let's advance to the rankings. After collating recent stats for the entire league, I immediately tossed out any player who hasn't appeared in at least six games over the past three weeks. Player who haven't averaged at least 15 minutes in that span were also eliminated. That left 264 players under consideration. I calculated their values and dropped anyone outside the top-200 for 8-cat, re-calculated, then ran the numbers separately for 9-cat values and DFS values (the latter is based on FanDuel's scoring system, which is typical of the industry).  The DFS values can also be looked at as a proxy for points leagues and punt-percentages strategies, since it's based on raw volume of stats with no regard to offensive efficiency -- there's no penalty for shooting 3-of-11 from the free throw line or 4-of-16 from the field. More on that later.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW

 

Rank (8-cat) Name 8-cat 9-cat DFS (FanDuel)
1 James Harden 13.38 8.38 57.99
2 Russell Westbrook 12.22 8.43 58.82
3 Stephen Curry 10.67 7.93 43.28
4 Damian Lillard 9.34 7.66 43.76
5 Karl-Anthony Towns 8.20 7.71 45.45
6 Paul George 8.16 6.59 41.23
7 Anthony Davis 7.98 7.61 49.02
8 John Wall 7.63 5.46 46.58
9 Rudy Gobert 7.28 6.66 44.80
10 Hassan Whiteside 6.76 6.51 41.01
11 Jimmy Butler 6.73 6.46 43.88
12 Ricky Rubio 6.50 4.93 38.05
13 Isaiah Thomas 6.48 5.10 34.66
14 Nikola Jokic 6.17 4.37 40.26
15 Klay Thompson 6.16 6.26 34.77
16 Kawhi Leonard 5.35 4.46 38.52
17 DeMarcus Cousins 5.21 3.02 42.10
18 Giannis Antetokounmpo 5.19 4.60 42.85
19 LeBron James 5.16 2.41 48.31
20 T.J. Warren 4.95 4.72 34.56
21 Mike Conley 4.94 3.38 35.34
22 Robert Covington 4.93 4.67 31.51
23 Al Horford 4.83 4.46 36.45
24 Kristaps Porzingis 4.79 4.29 35.32
25 Elfrid Payton 4.52 3.44 37.46
26 Chris Paul 4.36 3.28 34.23
27 Bradley Beal 4.14 3.65 33.78
28 Draymond Green 4.03 3.30 34.71
29 Nikola Vucevic 3.99 4.39 40.45
30 Dario Saric 3.92 1.92 33.50
31 Kyrie Irving 3.87 3.26 36.67
32 C.J. McCollum 3.80 3.70 32.95
33 Devin Booker 3.58 1.50 37.19
34 Dennis Schroder 3.47 0.28 35.35
35 Marvin Williams 3.33 4.57 32.55
36 Brook Lopez 3.24 1.67 33.17
37 Myles Turner 3.09 3.78 30.55
38 Gary Harris 3.00 3.27 27.62
39 Jusuf Nurkic 2.97 1.49 37.09
40 Goran Dragic 2.94 2.18 34.18
41 Kemba Walker 2.87 2.91 34.91
42 Jeff Teague 2.78 1.21 30.25
43 Trevor Ariza 2.64 3.93 27.12
44 Jrue Holiday 2.51 2.73 31.59
45 Gordon Hayward 2.33 1.44 31.64
46 Nikola Mirotic 2.29 2.69 27.53
47 Rajon Rondo 2.21 1.39 26.94
48 LaMarcus Aldridge 2.20 2.90 34.44
49 DeAndre Jordan 2.11 3.24 35.86
50 Victor Oladipo 2.06 1.70 27.87
51 Gorgui Dieng 2.02 2.07 24.59
52 D'Angelo Russell 1.75 0.78 30.01
53 Khris Middleton 1.70 0.72 25.87
54 Jae Crowder 1.69 1.44 27.51
55 Otto Porter 1.62 3.20 26.06
56 Danilo Gallinari 1.51 2.40 28.08
57 DeMar DeRozan 1.36 0.65 37.63
58 Richaun Holmes 1.25 2.05 27.28
59 T.J. McConnell 1.17 1.22 25.63
60 Tim Hardaway Jr. 1.14 0.97 25.65
61 Cody Zeller 1.10 2.01 25.45
62 Marc Gasol 0.89 0.10 32.86
63 Avery Bradley 0.80 0.44 25.46
64 Kevin Love 0.77 1.07 28.15
65 Patty Mills 0.76 1.45 22.91
66 Mason Plumlee 0.74 0.68 26.09
67 Carmelo Anthony 0.60 0.26 29.46
68 Julius Randle 0.58 -0.51 30.73
69 Willie Cauley-Stein 0.55 0.27 27.45
70 Jeremy Lin 0.53 -0.40 27.16
71 Jordan Clarkson 0.50 -0.23 30.12
72 James Johnson 0.48 -0.25 27.93
73 Malcolm Brogdon 0.38 0.60 24.14
74 Nicolas Batum 0.33 -0.42 29.26
75 Buddy Hield 0.26 0.41 24.32
76 Pau Gasol 0.04 -0.03 24.59
77 Derrick Rose 0.01 0.18 29.02
78 Evan Fournier -0.21 -0.11 24.89
79 Lou Williams -0.24 -0.49 23.53
80 Serge Ibaka -0.29 -0.55 22.68
81 J.J. Redick -0.30 0.29 20.87
82 Yogi Ferrell -0.31 -0.09 19.78
83 Dwight Howard -0.33 -1.88 34.06
84 Manu Ginobili -0.37 -0.60 19.51
85 Blake Griffin -0.37 -1.19 31.47
86 Jahlil Okafor -0.38 -1.72 21.16
87 Nerlens Noel -0.41 0.12 22.41
88 Tobias Harris -0.47 0.32 26.70
89 Marquese Chriss -0.55 -1.04 24.72
90 Andre Iguodala -0.65 0.30 22.98
91 Greg Monroe -0.69 -1.28 25.68
92 Solomon Hill -0.75 -0.65 20.67
93 Wilson Chandler -0.76 -0.06 26.39
94 Willy Hernangomez -0.79 -1.16 27.11
95 Tyler Johnson -0.82 -1.67 21.58
96 Clint Capela -0.83 -0.13 28.10
97 DeMarre Carroll -0.87 0.42 18.52
98 Eric Gordon -0.88 -0.66 21.22
99 Taurean Prince -0.89 -0.62 18.62
100 Enes Kanter -0.97 -1.07 24.87
101 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -0.98 0.58 20.85
102 Cory Joseph -1.02 -2.26 23.54
103 Will Barton -1.04 -0.45 24.82
104 Brandon Ingram -1.07 -1.57 24.71
105 Robin Lopez -1.08 -0.62 21.13
106 Dirk Nowitzki -1.17 -0.47 25.17
107 Ersan Ilyasova -1.20 -1.26 23.17
108 Jonas Valanciunas -1.27 -0.69 24.75
109 George Hill -1.36 -2.25 24.01
110 Tony Snell -1.36 -0.27 18.26
111 Ivica Zubac -1.38 -0.57 23.34
112 Darren Collison -1.40 -1.23 24.49
113 Alex Len -1.53 -1.63 23.64
114 Vince Carter -1.54 -0.49 17.24
115 Terrence Ross -1.58 -1.36 18.87
116 Harrison Barnes -1.59 -1.13 24.97
117 Aaron Gordon -1.62 -1.28 22.22
118 Danny Green -1.64 -1.78 15.48
119 PJ Tucker -1.69 -0.56 18.58
120 Allen Crabbe -1.70 -0.51 18.60
121 Monta Ellis -1.73 -1.15 20.52
122 Garrett Temple -1.80 -2.07 18.48
123 Kris Dunn -1.80 -1.00 14.39
124 JaMychal Green -1.82 -0.89 20.15
125 Alan Williams -1.82 -1.37 25.60
126 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -1.84 -1.25 23.13
127 Courtney Lee -1.90 -1.56 21.17
128 Jamal Murray -1.91 -1.75 18.65
129 Markieff Morris -1.94 -1.13 21.57
130 Nene Hilario -1.96 -1.27 20.94
131 Kelly Olynyk -2.10 -1.76 19.68
132 Amir Johnson -2.14 -1.92 16.59
133 Jamal Crawford -2.16 -1.86 17.76
134 Tyler Ulis -2.17 -2.77 27.96
135 Jameer Nelson -2.27 -2.33 22.21
136 Jordan Crawford -2.31 -2.09 19.33
137 Marcus Smart -2.35 -2.84 21.49
138 Andre Drummond -2.35 -2.45 34.06
139 Josh Richardson -2.38 -1.45 19.12
140 Juan Hernangomez -2.43 -1.47 15.94
141 Andre Roberson -2.46 -0.97 18.84
142 John Henson -2.51 -1.47 17.83
143 Andrew Wiggins -2.52 -3.33 28.83
144 Patrick Beverley -2.53 -2.66 18.74
145 Kosta Koufos -2.53 -1.54 19.70
146 Larry Nance -2.55 -1.62 18.87
147 Denzel Valentine -2.62 -2.14 17.99
148 Thabo Sefolosha -2.67 -2.10 17.84
149 Joe Ingles -2.68 -2.34 20.09
150 Jeremy Lamb -2.71 -1.58 19.03
151 Anthony Tolliver -2.75 -1.79 14.69
152 Steven Adams -2.76 -2.60 21.59
153 Jason Smith -2.83 -1.59 15.82
154 Skal Labissiere -2.89 -2.95 20.98
155 Joe Johnson -2.90 -1.97 20.05
156 Seth Curry -2.91 -2.74 17.44
157 Kenneth Faried -2.92 -1.88 20.14
158 Tristan Thompson -2.92 -1.90 20.32
159 Ish Smith -2.98 -2.78 21.67
160 Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot -3.01 -2.85 15.98
161 Devin Harris -3.02 -2.68 14.86
162 Matt Barnes -3.12 -2.85 16.15
163 Channing Frye -3.13 -1.84 14.08
164 Kent Bazemore -3.19 -2.89 18.95
165 Delon Wright -3.21 -2.94 15.11
166 Dante Cunningham -3.23 -1.74 15.88
167 Georgios Papagiannis -3.29 -2.30 16.10
168 Nik Stauskas -3.31 -3.91 16.26
169 Ryan Anderson -3.32 -2.11 16.29
170 Marco Belinelli -3.32 -2.08 17.52
171 Caris LeVert -3.35 -2.56 16.63
172 Marreese Speights -3.36 -2.66 14.85
173 Tim Frazier -3.42 -2.49 16.89
174 Ian Mahinmi -3.49 -3.29 14.84
175 Zaza Pachulia -3.53 -3.48 16.38
176 Iman Shumpert -3.56 -2.60 16.26
177 David Lee -3.57 -2.99 16.97
178 Frank Kaminsky -3.61 -3.06 21.61
179 Jon Leuer -3.70 -2.80 17.03
180 Dewayne Dedmon -3.71 -3.23 14.41
181 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -3.74 -2.84 18.50
182 Reggie Jackson -3.75 -3.88 20.53
183 Bojan Bogdanovic -3.75 -4.35 16.64
184 Quincy Acy -3.76 -2.76 16.08
185 Isaiah Whitehead -3.76 -3.85 15.77
186 Alex Abrines -3.76 -2.41 12.27
187 Deron Williams -3.77 -3.29 13.83
188 Sergio Rodriguez -3.82 -3.36 17.49
189 Thaddeus Young -3.83 -2.92 18.67
190 KJ McDaniels -3.86 -3.06 13.04
191 Jason Terry -3.97 -2.68 12.37
192 Noah Vonleh -3.98 -3.48 17.50
193 Wesley Matthews -4.00 -4.50 19.09
194 Tony Allen -4.04 -3.35 19.54
195 Patrick Patterson -4.08 -2.52 13.75
196 Norman Powell -4.10 -3.84 16.69
197 Paul Zipser -4.11 -4.01 14.14
198 Taj Gibson -4.12 -3.69 17.61
199 Jared Dudley -4.22 -3.74 16.35
200 Spencer Dinwiddie -4.24 -3.94 17.14

 

Predictably, it's James Harden and Russell Westbrook who take top honors in all three scoring systems. Even their towering turnover totals can't knock them off the No. 1 and 2 spots in 9-cat, where they've edged out Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard over the past 10 days.   We also see clearly the impact of efficiency (or a lack thereof). It's not as pronounced at the top of the list, but once we get to the middle we find roto-friendly players like Gary Harris, Gorgui Dieng, Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, DeMarre Carroll, Taurean Prince and Danny Green, all of whom have been substantially less valuable as DFS options. Most of those guys are solid all-around contributors, but DFS also doesn't treat specialists very well, with the likes of Yogi Ferrell, Kris Dunn, Anthony Tolliver and Channing Frye also getting pummeled in FanDuel. Points all count the same in this system, so 3-pointers don't add value, and scoring is weighted so heavily that a guy averaging 2.1 steals per game isn't very meaningful.   On the flipside, we see how eliminating FT% from the equation benefits the likely suspects -- Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, etc. The same principle holds true for high-volume, low-FG% scorers who are tanking that category in roto but cruising along in DFS. This group includes DeMar DeRozan, Tyler Ulis and Andrew Wiggins, but even Marc Gasol stands out -- over his past eight games, he's shooting a mere 42.8% from the field and 77.8% from the line. Hopefully those numbers will spike once he's fully recovered from his strained left foot.   I hope this helps you make the critical decisions needed to win in competitive leagues. Take your time looking at the data and feel free to contact me with any questions or insights. If you prefer to download the spreadsheet or simply view it on Google Sheets, you can do so here. Good luck this week!



Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.
Email :Ryan Knaus



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