Mike Gallagher

NBA Fantasy Trends

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Stats: Green With Envy

Tuesday, April 25, 2017


So the Warriors look pretty good. They scored 45 points in the first quarter on Monday, and got to the 35-point mark in under eight minutes. As you might expect, they were ridiculously efficient with their 108.0 true shooting percentage (TS%) to get to 35 while they had a 192.8 offensive rating at just a 107.5 pace. Game 4 was a wrap after just eight minutes and basically all of their key guys were on fire.

 

Last week, we talked about how Kawhi Leonard’s offense may have surpassed his defense. While that’s not the case for Draymond Green at all, his offensive output is vastly underrated. 

 

Sure, it does help that he was able to knock down jumpers in this series. In fact, he had a 68.8 effective field goal (eFG%) on his 24 jumpers and that explains why he was able to get to 68.1 TS% in the four games. His shot chart is wild:

Morey Ball! He only had two non-restricted area 2PAs and he wasn’t even good at the rim. Yeah, Green did only have a 38.2 eFG% on his jumpers during the season, so obviously he’s not going to be another Stephen Curry from three. For what it’s worth, Dray did have a 45.6 eFG% on his jumpers in the postseason last year, so he was a little better out there. 

 

Another obvious part that is helping Green is how much his teammates are helping him. Green has been assisted on 93.8 percent of his field goal makes, and of course he’s open a whole lot. On his 20 tracked shots beyond 10 feet, he was open on 17 (85.0 percent) of them. 

 

Also tied to assisted buckets and being open is how long he’s holding the ball for his shots. When he touched the ball for more than two seconds, Green missed all six attempts in the playoffs. On the other hand, he had an 82.7 eFG% on his 26 shots with under two seconds of touch time. 

 

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The most obvious part of Dray’s offense is his contributions as a passer. Green ranks second in these playoffs for passes made per game (Rajon Rondo), and Green is doing it in just 35.2 minutes. That’s also part of the reason the Dubs are first in the NBA playoffs for possessions off cuts — the most efficient play type. Here’s an example from last night:

 

 

Yeah, anyone can make this pass, but it does require some patience and Klay Thompson has to trust Dray enough to make the cut.

 

Unlike the Kawhitron 2000, Green will never be an impact isolation scorer. And yeah, you could call Draymond a system player while Kawhi is a system, player. Today’s NBA isn’t about isolation scoring and there’s a reason why the Cavs led the NBA with only 11.9 percent of their plays coming in isolation. Green is a massive plus on O and such a great fit on the Warriors. While C.J. McCollum is probably right about Dray doing more calf raises, Green is a delight and has been a must-watch player on both ends.

 

Oh and his defense is ridiculous to help him get to averages of 4.3 blocks, 13.8 points, 7.5 assists, 9.5 boards, 1.5 steals and 2.8 treys. He’s incredible. 

 

Line 'Em Up

 

Russell Westbrook doesn’t want to talk about his on/off splits, but we kind of have to, right? When he’s on the court, Westbrook has a +2.1 net rating in 153 minutes against the Rockets in the playoffs. When he’s off, OKC is -40.3 in the 39 minutes without Brodie. Norris Cole somehow has a -50.6 net rating in his 25 minutes while Semaj Christon is -46.6 in 21 minutes. The Thunder starters also at an +18.7 net rating. No bueno.

 

The Cavs swept the Pacers, but they did so in a very unusual fashion. They won the four games with just a 16-point total margin of victory, which is tied for the smallest margin of victory in a four-game sweep ever. What’s more, their starting lineup of Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson had a net rating of -2.4. That’s worse than the Pacers starters, and is the worst of the four lineup combos to play at least 60 minutes as a unit in the postseason. The Cavs have some work to do, especially if the Raptors can keep it going. NORM IS FREE!

 

Another group of starters with some troubles has been the Spurs. Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Dewayne Dedmon have a -15.3 net rating in their three games together. Even in their two wins, they are -12.2, so credit to the Grizzlies for limiting that unit with Kawhi Leonard in it.

 

The Hawks vs. Wizards series is amazing. This is probably one of my favorite parts of it and really anything from the weekend:

 

So good. Anyway, it’s been quite a contrast for the home teams. When the Wizards are home, their starters put up an absurd +43.4 net rating. When the Hawks were home, the ATL starters had a +6.3 net rating while the Wiz starters had a -26.1. This is probably better news for the Wizards, but momentum can be a powerful thing.

 

Tracking the Tracking Stats

 

James Harden has 17.8 drives per game, 14.0 points per game off drives, and 2.0 assists per game off those.

 

Stephen Curry has 14.0 points per game off pull-ups with a 68.3 eFG% on those shots. Westbrook is at 15.3 points with a 43.0 eFG%.

 

Jimmy Butler has run 11.2 miles in his four games already.

 

Tony Snell leads all playoff players with 9.0 points per game off catch-and-shoot attempts. He has an 80.4 eFG% on his 28 attempts.

 

Bradley Beal is sitting at just 32.3 eFG% on his catch-and-shoot attempts.

 

Derrick Favors is first in the playoffs for paint touches per game. He’s also making 84.2 percent of his shots off paint touches.

 

Russell Westbrook has a top-ranked 8.3 uncontested rebounds per game in the playoffs. Triple-doubles! Woohoo!

 

Marc Gasol has a whopping 13.5 elbow touches per game. Greg Monroe is a distant second at 8.2. Gasol has also made just 5-of-16 from the field (31.3 percent) of his shots off elbow touches.

 

In his 36 minutes during the fourth quarter, Chris Paul has a 43.5 usage rate and a 67.2 true shooting percentage. James Harden has been even more ridiculous in the fourth with a 73.0 TS% and a 42.8 usage rate. Kyrie Irving in the fourth is at just a 37.7 TS% and a 41.9 usage rate. 

 

In his 21 fourth quarter minutes during the playoffs, Kawhi Leonard has 92.8 true shooting percentage and a 40.3 usage rate. He’s so unfair.



Mike Gallagher has covered fantasy hoops for eight years and this season is his second with Rotoworld. You can find him on Twitter talking about a player's shots at the rim.



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