Ethan Norof

Risers and Fallers

print article archives RSS

Risers & Fallers: SF Edition

Saturday, May 20, 2017


Welcome to the third installment of Risers & Fallers, a positional preview piece that we’ll adventure through together over the course of the next five weeks.

 

In each installment, I’ll identify a few players expected to rise and fall in 2017-18 fantasy basketball drafts. It should be a nice little look-ahead to get us in the mood for the other NBA campaign: The Offseason

 

Previous installments:

 

Point Guard

 

Shooting Guard

 

RISERS

 

Brandon Ingram, SF Los Angeles Lakers (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 125.1, Rd. 12.5)

 

The difference in Ingram before and after the All-Star Break was enormous, and it was easy to see why so many who were high on his potential coming into his rookie season. After struggling mightily to establish himself in the season’s first half, the spindly first-year man looked like a different man over his final 21 games, averaging 13.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.1 steals on 47.5% shooting. Compare that to his first 58 games in which he averaged 8.0 points, 4.1 boards, 1.9 assists and nothing else on a paltry 36.3% shooting and the growth very much comes into clear focus.

 

Magic Johnson, Rob Pelinka and the new Los Angeles front office have many short and long-term decisions, but keeping Ingram in the fold should not be one of them, and it sounds like the future vision will be built with BI at the epicenter of the plans. There’s a ton to like about Ingram’s growth on both ends of the court, and he could very well be a member of the VIP Fantasy 1/1/1 club in his sophomore season. The Lakers were very clearly encouraging increased assertiveness from Ingram, and that same attitude should carry over into the 2017-18 campaign.

 

Expecting a complete and total breakout is unrealistic given where the Lakers are and the fact that Ingram will be just 20 years old by the time the season begins, but the progression should continue and Ingram’s fantasy-friendly game will make him a nice mid-round target.  

 

Editor’s Note: Introducing FanDuel Mixup, the newest way to play FanDuel Baseball. Smaller lineups, so you can draft your team on the go, plus fun themes every week! Play now.

 

T.J. Warren, SF Phoenix Suns (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 141.5, Rd. 14.4)

 

Warren was a bit of an afterthought for many in both fantasy and reality, but outside of a mysterious head injury that knocked him out of action for an extended stretch, the North Carolina State product enjoyed a productive season, averaging 14.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and just 0.9 turnovers on 49.5% from the field.  Although those numbers are solid, not spectacular, Warren was an absolute difference-maker after the All-Star Break in 22 games with averages of 17.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks (1.0 TO) on a ridiculously efficient 56.0% from the field while averaging 35 minutes per night.

 

Despite there being uncertainty with the Phoenix roster outside of Devin Booker’s presence, Warren’s contributions are critical on the wing with the Suns lacking depth at the small forward position. Regardless of who surrounds him next year, Warren should again be relied upon to play a big-time role as a capable scorer with a game that’s still growing. Clearly, that’s worth more than a top-150 selection.

 

Assuming a summer that involves a clean bill of health and a normal training regimen, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Warren push the 20-point-per-game plateau, a realistic goal for the 2014 first-round selection. He’s not exactly a reach candidate, but he does represent good value for where he should be available on draft day.

 

Robert Covington, SF Philadelphia 76ers (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 112.2 Rd. 11.1)

 

It’s flatly embarrassing to see where Covington was drafted (on average) last season, and you can be absolutely certain that won’t happen this time around.

 

Following a miserable start in which RoCo failed to do anything meaningful for the first quarter of the season—he was even dropped in a lot of leagues—he started to come alive. It’s incredibly hard to find players who hold specialist value in multiple categories, and that’s exactly what Covington became over the course of the year en route to finishing his year with averages of 12.9 points, 6.5 boards, 1.9 steals, 1.0 block and 2.0 3-pointers on 39.9% shooting. The field goal percentage is a major pain to deal with, but it’s a category that you can willingly punt in head-to-head formats and still wind up with a winning squad.

 

While Ben Simmons (foot), Joel Embiid (knee), Dario Saric and more new young players will all be in the mix, Covington’s defense makes him irreplaceable on this roster as constructed and he should still see plenty of playing time as a result. The undrafted 26-year-old out of Tennessee State has become a Brett Brown favorite, and that can’t be discounted going into a contract year.

 

Stars on the Rise: Gordon Hayward, UTA; Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL

 

Others in the Running: Harrison Barnes, DAL; Otto Porter, WAS

 

FALLERS

 

Chandler Parsons, SF Memphis Grizzlies (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 90.9, Rd. 9.0)

 

The Parsons experiment was a complete and total failure in Year 1 with the Grizzlies, and there’s very little reason to hold optimism about the situation moving forward. When he was finally able to get on the floor, Parsons didn’t look anything like a maximum-contract player, let alone the version of himself he showed to be in Dallas.

 

After being a mid-round gamble for a ton of hopeful fantasy general managers, Parsons was a bust in every sense of the word and was on waiver wires across the board before the All-Star Break arrived. Then his season ended prematurely due to yet another knee surgery, and nobody knows exactly what version of the 28-year-old will return for his second go-around in Memphis.

 

There is no reason to take a chance on Parsons in any format—regardless of size—until if and when proves his health is in the best order that it can be in and he’s capable of actually contributing something meaningful on the court.

 

Tobias Harris, SF Detroit Pistons (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 47.2, Rd. 5.0)

 

I was fairly high on Harris entering the season, but the nightmare that was the Detroit Pistons made it difficult to justify the price paid on draft day. As a player who was regularly selected ahead of others like Goran Dragic, Marc Gasol, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, Avery Bradley and more, Harris’ contributions—16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 3-pointers (1.2 turnovers) on 48.1% shooting—left a desire for more, especially in the way of a diversified fantasy game.

 

Although his production was fairly consistent, Harris rode a rollercoaster when it came to the roles he was asked to play for this team. Until Stan Van Gundy clearly defines the vision for the identity of his squad—something that is still very much a work in process with Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson (tied with Harris) as Detroit’s highest-paid players—Harris will have a difficult time fulfilling his truest potential.

 

DeMarre Carroll, SF Toronto Raptors (Yahoo 2016-17 ADP: Pick 92.1, Rd. 9.3)

 

It’s almost unbelievable that Carroll was selected ahead of names like Harrison Barnes, Joel Embiid, and Jrue Holiday, but it’s very believable that Carroll is likely to go undrafted when it comes time to make your selections ahead of the 2017-18 campaign.

 

Carroll managed to appear in 72 games, but he was very ineffective as a fantasy asset, averaging 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.5 treys on 40.0% shooting. Everyone should be able to do better in aiming for both upside and production, and he’s a player who’s on my firm “do not draft” list moving forward.

 

Others in the Running: Evan Fournier, ORL; Kent Bazemore, ATL



Follow Ethan Norof on Twitter @Ethan_Norof for more fantasy basketball analysis, advice and all things Los Angeles Lakers.
Email :Ethan Norof



Highest Searched Players over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    Matchups: Bortles vs. Texans

    Matchups: Bortles vs. Texans
  •  
    Dose: Osweiler leads DEN

    Dose: Osweiler leads DEN
  •  
    RotoPat: Start Rodgers

    RotoPat: Start Rodgers
  •  
    Rankings: Steelers on top

    Rankings: Steelers on top
  •  
    Dose: Rodgers returns for GB

    Dose: Rodgers returns for GB
  •  
    Waivers: Wentz replacements

    Waivers: Wentz replacements
  •  
    Dose: Miami upsets NE

    Dose: Miami upsets NE
  •  
    Dose: PIT

    Dose: PIT's O crushes BAL