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FanDuel NBA Bargains: Thursday

Thursday, November 9, 2017


FanDuel Bargain Bin

 

Today’s Thursday NBA slate has just five games, but they should be some fun ones. With more than a few top stars on the slate tonight, we’ll look for bargain plays that offer a range of risk/reward ratios. In this column, I generally set $6000 as the bargain threshold, and I try to indicate when I think a position is particularly well-suited--or not--to using the cheap plays given the landscape of the particular slate.

 

 

 

Point Guard

 

Emmanuel Mudiay $4400: Both Mudiay and Jamal Murray ($4800) put up duds vs. Brooklyn, a game in which Nikola Jokic and the 2-guards stole the show. It’s hard to know what Denver is planning for the long term, but if you look over the past 2-3 weeks Mudiay has been the more consistent play at the point. Vegas likes this to be a competitive game in Denver, giving Mudiay the opportunity to get back near 30 fantasy points.

 

T.J. McConnell $5400: McConnell is playing around 30 minutes per game, and producing nicely in good matchups. Though the Kings represent a pace downgrade for him, they are neither a good offensive nor defensive team. McConnell provides production in every category, and he could see a bump in his rebounding numbers as the Kings rank 30th in that category.

 

De’Aaron Fox $5400: While McConnell gets the pace downgrade, Fox and George Hill get the upgrade. Even if Hill starts, Fox is the future and is playing better than Hill in almost every game. His minutes are pretty even despite his production fluctuating, but I’d still prefer to use him in tournaments at this price.

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Jordan Clarkson $4400: Clarkson is just red hot right now, one of the most efficient per minute guys--or the most--in this price range. In addition to nearly 20 points per game, he has two steals in each of the last three and a few assorted peripherals too. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4700) is also a safe play in this good matchup (Washington gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to shooting guards) but every dollar is going to count on this slate.

 

Iman Shumpert $3000: Shumpert is slated to start for the Cavs tonight, so with the idea of paying up for LeBron James, James Harden, Anthony Davis, and/or DeMarcus Cousins, he might be a necessary evil. The range of outcomes here is around 5-25 fantasy points but the game carries the night’s highest point total (228) and Harden is no great defender, so I’m feeling good about Shump tonight.

 

Buddy Hield $4700: Hield is averaging about 30 fantasy points per game over his last three, and none have been as good as his No. 2 matchup with Philadelphia tonight. He’s shooting better in that span (62 FG%) and he’s made 7-of-11 threes.  

 

 

Small Forward

 

Trevor Ariza $5700: Ariza is the guy you hope you have the salary left for after rostering James and the other stars you like tonight. He gives your lineup a high floor and a bit of upside vs. a Cavs team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing SFs.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Julius Randle $4500: I’ll ride the Randle heater tonight at this price in tournaments, because the game should be fast/high scoring and Washington doesn’t defend opposing forwards all that well. Of course, Kyle Kuzma is playing significantly more minutes than Randle as the starter and has a decent shot at meeting value too, but Randle is the deeper bargain I want and need on this slate.

 

Ryan Anderson $4300: Anderson’s great games are hard to predict and he’s coming off a real stinker vs. Utah Sunday night, but with the Rockets being well-rested home favorites in the highest point total game, the stars could align for him. If he’s feeling it from beyond the arc, a 35-fantasy point night is well within his range.

 

 

Center

 

Clint Capela $6800: Don’t make me save at center tonight! There are too many top options at the position. The least expensive of them is Capela, who ranks fifth in player efficiency (PER) and will see Cleveland’s 30th ranked team defense tonight. He’s gone two games without a double-double which is way too long given how he’s been playing so far this year. I think he’s back to near 40-fantasy points tonight. Even so, I’d rather spend up for Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, or DeMarcus Cousins tonight.

 

Willie Cauley-Stein $4900: If you insist on saving here, WCS gets the top center matchup on the slate with the 76ers (giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to centers) and he’s performed just under 5X value in similarly good matchups…which is to say that he probably won’t tank your lineups at this price.   



Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist and has been a daily fantasy sports fanatic since 2011. She is the author of "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?". You can find her on twitter @reneemiller01.
Email :Renee Miller



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