Cards Not Taking Chances

Week 16 Matchups to Exploit

Lance Moore @ Lions
Time: 1:00ET

Moore's fantasy stock took a significant hit when Reggie Bush returned from his initial knee injury in Week 13. Moore dominated while Bush was out, going for 383 yards and five touchdowns on 25 catches between Weeks 8 and 12. Now that Bush's season is over, Moore is likely to rebound in a major way. He plays in the slot and will have no competition for targets at that position. Only helping Moore's cause this week are two factors; 1) the game is played inside at Ford Field, and 2) the only thing New Orleans has left to play for is Drew Brees eclipsing Dan Marino's mark for the most passing yards in a season. Brees needs to average 378 in each of his last two games to do it. Though the Saints could theoretically run it down Detroit's throat all day, coach Sean Payton is more likely to take a pass-heavy approach. The Lions' pass defense is the worst in the league, lost starting free safety Dwight Smith to a broken ankle in Week 15, and will likely be ripped apart by Brees on Sunday. Moore will be just one of the many beneficiaries.

Isaac Bruce @ Rams
Time: 1:00ET

As noted in Saturday's morning news, Bruce is six catches short of 1,000 for his career and needs 60 yards to pass Tim Brown for second place on the all-time receiving list. Coordinator Mike Martz realizes the significance of Sunday's game for Bruce, and as a fellow St. Louis transplant is sure to call plays Rev. Ike's way early and often. With Frank Gore (ankle) uncertain to play, look for Bruce to be the 49ers' featured player on offense. It doesn't hurt that the Rams are playing musical chairs in the secondary, replacing SS Corey Chavous with special teamer Todd Johnson, and could have communication problems in the back end. St. Louis is easy to beat with the pass, the game is indoors, and Bruce will be getting the football a lot. He's a shoe-in WR3 and strong flex play in the matchup. Martz won't take it easy on the Rams.

Antonio Gates @ Bucs
Time: 1:00ET

Gates had been having a slow go of it lately, but bounced back with seven grabs for 78 yards in Week 15 against Kansas City. He's likely to stay strong at Tampa Bay. With Malcom Floyd shut down for the week due to a collapsed lung, the Chargers have 4-5 extra targets to spread around. Many of Floyd's looks came in the red zone, which is where Gates is at his best. He's also looking for records. Gates can become the fastest tight end in history to reach 50 touchdowns with a score this week. He's been stuck on 49 career TDs for five weeks. Gates is also 28 receiving yards short of 5,000 and can become the second fastest tight end to reach that number, behind only the original Kellen Winslow. The weather in Tampa will be favorable for passing, San Diego still has an outside chance to win the AFC West, and Gates has a lot to play for.

Brandon Jacobs vs. Panthers
Time: 8:15ET

Jacobs is listed as questionable on the injury report, but he will start against Carolina in a battle of potential NFC No. 1 playoff seeds. The Panthers are expected to be minus top run-stuffer Maake Kemoeatu (ankle). This is a significant loss for a rush defense that is already struggling. Kemoeatu (6'5/350) was the reason Carolina felt comfortable trading All-Pro NT Kris Jenkins to the Jets in the offseason. The Panthers get very small up front without Kemo, likely having to use starting LE Tyler Brayton inside and usual nickel rusher Charles Johnson as an every-down player. That all makes Jacobs' matchup highly favorable. Confidently have Jacobs in your fantasy lineup for Sunday Night Football and expect 20 touches. For The Train, that usually translates to a touchdown or two.

Week 16 Matchups to Avoid

Jason Witten vs. Ravens
Time: Saturday 8:15ET

The Cowboys have their important passing-game pieces intact with Roy Williams' foot improving, situational deep threat Miles Austin back from his knee injury, and turmoil in the locker room put on the back burner. What they don't have is a legitimate answer for Baltimore RE/ROLB Terrell Suggs. Dallas realizes that LT Flozell Adams is vulnerable to speedy edge rushers and will need help to offset the Ravens' franchise player, who has a sack in each of his last three games. Martellus Bennett could be put on the line to help Adams, but that's unlikely because Bennett isn't a polished blocker. With the running game highly unlikely to be effective Saturday night, look for the Cowboys to run a spread with Williams, Patrick Crayton, and Terrell Owens split out in three receiver sets and Witten to stay at home as an in-line tight end and sixth lineman. Witten is always difficult to sit in fantasy leagues, but it could be hard for him to top 50 yards in this one.

Chris Johnson vs. Steelers
Time: 1:00ET

It's easy to bet on the Steelers shutting down running backs, but with word that the Titans may "limit" Johnson's usage because the AFC South is already in hand, the rookie would be difficult to rely on in fantasy championships. Johnson is in his first year, already has nearly 300 touches under his belt, and the Titans want to ensure that he doesn't hit a rookie wall before the important games start. Johnson only got 13 carries last week and has been bottled up by the NFL's top defenses before (61 yards vs. MIN in Week 4, 44 yards @ BAL in Week 5, 8 yards @ CHI in Week 10, 46 yards vs. NYJ in Week 12). Johnson may only get 8-10 touches on Sunday and is a risky play in all leagues.

Reply Absolutely Not to the Following Questions

> Will the Lions win this week?

> Is PT Cruiser a cool nickname for Pierre Thomas?

> Does anyone have a prayer against Heath Ledger for Best Actor this year after his role in Dark Knight?

Anquan Boldin is listed as questionable on the Cardinals' Week 16 injury report, but he did not practice at all this week and coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't typically use players on game day that have taken no reps. Boldin is dealing with a shoulder injury, the extent of which is unknown. Because Arizona doesn't have anything left to play for -- a first-round bye cannot be clinched and the club has already won the NFC West -- it's very likely that Boldin will sit out at New England. It wouldn't make sense for the Cards to risk him beating his shoulder into the frozen Foxboro ground. Look for Steve Breaston to start across from Larry Fitzgerald and Jerheme Urban to stand in as the third receiver.

If the Cards get down a couple of scores early, don't be surprised to see some Matt Leinart either. Whisenhunt has made it clear that he doesn't plan to take any chances Sunday. His team has very little experience playing in poor weather and Whiz wants his key guys ready to go in January.

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Important Game-Time Decisions for Week 16

Arms
Tony Romo - Back bruise won't keep him out Saturday; expect 2 TDs.
Jeff Garcia - The Bucs fully expect Garcia to start against San Diego.
Gus Frerotte - Has lost his job to Tarvaris Jackson for the time being.
Trent Edwards - Unlikely to have success in return from groin strain.

Wides
Anquan Boldin - Likely to take the week off with nothing to play for.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Housh will start Sunday against the Browns.
Kevin Curtis - Calf strain will keep him out, Reggie Brown will start.
Laveranues Coles - Will play, but not a great fantasy play @ Seattle.
Domenik Hixon - Game-day decision, but still likely to face Carolina.
Derrick Mason - Bum shoulder won't keep Mason out Saturday night.
Chad Ocho Cinco - He has a hamstring injury, but scheduled to start.
Koren Robinson - Will start, but a third option at best in the offense.
Roy Williams - Probable, but hasn't topped 51 yds in a game all year.
Brandon Stokley - He's a full blown game-time decision against Bills.
Josh Morgan - Collided with S Mark Roman in practice, but he'll play.
Joshua Cribbs - Look for more of him at QB in the Wildcat vs. Cincy.
Roscoe Parrish - Late add to injury report is uncertain to face Denver.

Backs
Frank Gore - Latest news has Gore unlikely to be a big factor if active.
Brian Westbrook - Probable; he will start Sunday against Washington.
Brandon Jacobs - Fully scheduled to start; a high-upside play vs. CAR.
Matt Forte - Did some practicing on Friday and will start Monday night.
Clinton Portis - Very iffy to play after visit with chiropractor on Friday.
Marshawn Lynch - Despite questionable tag, he'll start at the Broncos.
Marion Barber - No one should count on MBIII in unfavorable matchup.
Kevin Smith - Questionable on injury report, but he's expected to start.
Derrick Ward - Ankle injury won't prevent him from backing up Jacobs.
J.J. Arrington - Look for Arrington to sit, Tim Hightower to handle load.
Ray Rice - Upgraded to questionable, but Rice's role is unpredictable.
Jerome Harrison - Likely to return from rib injury, but isn't a big factor.
Brandon Jackson - DeShawn Wynn will back up Grant if Jackson can't.
Deuce McAllister - Listed as probable, but doubt he'll get any carries.

Ends
Zach Miller - Shoulder stinger won't keep Miller from facing Houston.

Legs
Josh Brown - Returned to practice Friday and will kick against Niners.
Matt Stover - Probable; contract-year kicker will be in there @ Dallas.

Already Ruled Out for Week 16

Arms
Matt Hasselbeck - Seneca Wallace could start for rest of the season.
Carson Palmer - He's unlikely to make another appearance this year.
Alex Smith - Says he's willing to take pay cut to stay with 9ers in '09.
Daunte Culpepper - Dan Orlovsky to make his second straight start.

Wides
Arnaz Battle - Aggravated foot sprain landed Battle on injured reserve.
Malcom Floyd - Absence likely means more red-zone work for others.
Ronald Curry, Ashley Lelie - Johnnie Lee Higgins, Chaz Schilens to start.
James Hardy - Lost rookie year, torn ACL crush his dynasty prospects.
Hank Baskett - Kendra's hubby likely done until Week 1 of the playoffs.
Laurent Robinson - Preseason sleeper turned out to be a fantasy bust.

Backs
Reggie Bush - Knee woes are now chronic; Pierre Thomas stock on rise.
Rashard Mendenhall - Willie Parker's struggles help his fantasy value.

Ends
Kellen Winslow - Aims to play again this year, but doesn't seem close.
Steve Heiden - Look for more of rookie Martin Rucker against Bengals.

Legs
None of significance.



Week 16 Matchups to Exploit

Lance Moore @ Lions
Time: 1:00ET

Moore's fantasy stock took a significant hit when Reggie Bush returned from his initial knee injury in Week 13. Moore dominated while Bush was out, going for 383 yards and five touchdowns on 25 catches between Weeks 8 and 12. Now that Bush's season is over, Moore is likely to rebound in a major way. He plays in the slot and will have no competition for targets at that position. Only helping Moore's cause this week are two factors; 1) the game is played inside at Ford Field, and 2) the only thing New Orleans has left to play for is Drew Brees eclipsing Dan Marino's mark for the most passing yards in a season. Brees needs to average 378 in each of his last two games to do it. Though the Saints could theoretically run it down Detroit's throat all day, coach Sean Payton is more likely to take a pass-heavy approach. The Lions' pass defense is the worst in the league, lost starting free safety Dwight Smith to a broken ankle in Week 15, and will likely be ripped apart by Brees on Sunday. Moore will be just one of the many beneficiaries.

Isaac Bruce @ Rams
Time: 1:00ET

As noted in Saturday's morning news, Bruce is six catches short of 1,000 for his career and needs 60 yards to pass Tim Brown for second place on the all-time receiving list. Coordinator Mike Martz realizes the significance of Sunday's game for Bruce, and as a fellow St. Louis transplant is sure to call plays Rev. Ike's way early and often. With Frank Gore (ankle) uncertain to play, look for Bruce to be the 49ers' featured player on offense. It doesn't hurt that the Rams are playing musical chairs in the secondary, replacing SS Corey Chavous with special teamer Todd Johnson, and could have communication problems in the back end. St. Louis is easy to beat with the pass, the game is indoors, and Bruce will be getting the football a lot. He's a shoe-in WR3 and strong flex play in the matchup. Martz won't take it easy on the Rams.

Antonio Gates @ Bucs
Time: 1:00ET

Gates had been having a slow go of it lately, but bounced back with seven grabs for 78 yards in Week 15 against Kansas City. He's likely to stay strong at Tampa Bay. With Malcom Floyd shut down for the week due to a collapsed lung, the Chargers have 4-5 extra targets to spread around. Many of Floyd's looks came in the red zone, which is where Gates is at his best. He's also looking for records. Gates can become the fastest tight end in history to reach 50 touchdowns with a score this week. He's been stuck on 49 career TDs for five weeks. Gates is also 28 receiving yards short of 5,000 and can become the second fastest tight end to reach that number, behind only the original Kellen Winslow. The weather in Tampa will be favorable for passing, San Diego still has an outside chance to win the AFC West, and Gates has a lot to play for.

Brandon Jacobs vs. Panthers
Time: 8:15ET

Jacobs is listed as questionable on the injury report, but he will start against Carolina in a battle of potential NFC No. 1 playoff seeds. The Panthers are expected to be minus top run-stuffer Maake Kemoeatu (ankle). This is a significant loss for a rush defense that is already struggling. Kemoeatu (6'5/350) was the reason Carolina felt comfortable trading All-Pro NT Kris Jenkins to the Jets in the offseason. The Panthers get very small up front without Kemo, likely having to use starting LE Tyler Brayton inside and usual nickel rusher Charles Johnson as an every-down player. That all makes Jacobs' matchup highly favorable. Confidently have Jacobs in your fantasy lineup for Sunday Night Football and expect 20 touches. For The Train, that usually translates to a touchdown or two.

Week 16 Matchups to Avoid

Jason Witten vs. Ravens
Time: Saturday 8:15ET

The Cowboys have their important passing-game pieces intact with Roy Williams' foot improving, situational deep threat Miles Austin back from his knee injury, and turmoil in the locker room put on the back burner. What they don't have is a legitimate answer for Baltimore RE/ROLB Terrell Suggs. Dallas realizes that LT Flozell Adams is vulnerable to speedy edge rushers and will need help to offset the Ravens' franchise player, who has a sack in each of his last three games. Martellus Bennett could be put on the line to help Adams, but that's unlikely because Bennett isn't a polished blocker. With the running game highly unlikely to be effective Saturday night, look for the Cowboys to run a spread with Williams, Patrick Crayton, and Terrell Owens split out in three receiver sets and Witten to stay at home as an in-line tight end and sixth lineman. Witten is always difficult to sit in fantasy leagues, but it could be hard for him to top 50 yards in this one.

Chris Johnson vs. Steelers
Time: 1:00ET

It's easy to bet on the Steelers shutting down running backs, but with word that the Titans may "limit" Johnson's usage because the AFC South is already in hand, the rookie would be difficult to rely on in fantasy championships. Johnson is in his first year, already has nearly 300 touches under his belt, and the Titans want to ensure that he doesn't hit a rookie wall before the important games start. Johnson only got 13 carries last week and has been bottled up by the NFL's top defenses before (61 yards vs. MIN in Week 4, 44 yards @ BAL in Week 5, 8 yards @ CHI in Week 10, 46 yards vs. NYJ in Week 12). Johnson may only get 8-10 touches on Sunday and is a risky play in all leagues.

Reply Absolutely Not to the Following Questions

> Will the Lions win this week?

> Is PT Cruiser a cool nickname for Pierre Thomas?

> Does anyone have a prayer against Heath Ledger for Best Actor this year after his role in Dark Knight?