Eddie Royal is not
Michael Clayton.
He's not a rookie fantasy phenom that will fade into obscurity despite staying in the starting lineup. His quickness, hands, and route running are skills that will eventually serve him well with a creative pass-first coach like Josh McDaniels.
Royal is a reminder that a career arc isn't always a smooth ride, especially when your quarterback and head coach change.
Donnie Avery knows this well.
Along with Royal, Avery was one of three rookie wideouts in '08 to take fantasy football by storm early in the year. The thought that Avery would naturally emerge as a true "number one" receiver just because
Torry Holt left now looks as silly as assuming
Eddie Royal would immediately become the new
Wes Welker just because he was in the same offense.
While these two struggle,
DeSean Jackson is making the gains we hope for in a second-year wideout. He's going to make too many big plays not to finish in the top-15 receivers. It's no coincidence he's the only one of the three that remains in the same offensive system.
Perhaps Royal's struggles teach us a lesson that players with overwhelming physical tools –
Brandon Marshall, a younger T.O. – are the best suited to overcome a change in schemes. Maybe there isn't a lesson; it's just fantasy football kicking us in the ass again.
Either way, Royal's road to every-week fantasy starter status has clearly taken a detour. With a quarter of the season behind us, this week's set of rankings notes will skip the tape analysis and focus on other players that have seen their value take an unexpected turn.
Week 5 Quarterbacks | Rank | Player Name | Opponent | Notes |
| 1 | Peyton Manning | at TEN | - |
| 2 | Matt Schaub | at ARZ | - |
| 3 | Ben Roethlisberger | at DET | - |
| 4 | Tom Brady | at DEN | Probable(-) |
| 5 | Donovan McNabb | vs. TB | Probable(ribs) |
| 6 | Kurt Warner | vs. HOU | Probable(right shoulder) |
| 7 | Joe Flacco | vs. CIN | - |
| 8 | Tony Romo | at KC | - |
| 9 | Matt Ryan | at SF | - |
| 10 | David Garrard | at SEA | - |
| 11 | Brett Favre | at STL | Probable(foot) |
| 12 | Eli Manning | vs. OAK | Questionable(foot) |
| 13 | Carson Palmer | at BAL | - |
| 14 | Trent Edwards | vs. CLE | - |
| 15 | Matt Hasselbeck | vs. JAC | Probable(ribs) |
| 16 | Jason Campbell | at CAR | - |
| 17 | Derek Anderson | at BUF | - |
| 18 | Mark Sanchez | at MIA | - |
| 19 | Kyle Orton | vs. NE | - |
| 20 | Matt Cassel | vs. DAL | - |
| 21 | Jake Delhomme | vs. WAS | - |
| 22 | Shaun Hill | vs. ATL | - |
| 23 | Kerry Collins | vs. IND | - |
| 24 | Josh Johnson | at PHI | - |
| 25 | Kyle Boller | vs. MIN | - |
| 26 | Chad Henne | vs. NYJ | - |
| 27 | Daunte Culpepper | vs. PIT | - |
| 28 | JaMarcus Russell | at NYG | - |
QB Notes: This is the bizarro
Ben Roethlisberger: tons of yards, not many touchdowns. Owners should be very encouraged by this development. He leads the league in completion percentage, is third in yards per attempt (YPA), and is on pace set his career high in pass attempts by 100. There are quarterbacks with higher ceiling, but are few are safer week-to-week bets, which is a surprise. He's a true QB1 and should finish in the top eight at the position.
Shaun Hill has not been able to throw the ball vertically, even against mediocre pass defenses.
Michael Crabtree won't change that. We had hopes that Hill could be a quality QB2, but he's borderline droppable in most 12-team leagues. … I called
Tony Romo one of the five true every-week starters at quarterback to start the season. He's no longer in that category, but he should be lineups against the Chiefs. Other players I'd put in the every week category:
Peyton Manning, Brees, Schaub, Rivers, and
Aaron Rodgers. Guys knocking on the door: Cutler, Flacco, and Ryan. Warner, Cutler, and Eli are also producing, while McNabb is on the way back. There are more than enough quarterbacks to go around. If you have two of the top ten, I'd trade away the depth.
Tom Brady is coming off his best performance of the year. His yards per game is the second best of his career; the touchdowns will come. …
Matt Schaub is giving us just what we hoped for after the opening week hiccup: Big production, and the ever-present feeling that it all could end on any play. …
Eli Manning is a player a lot of fantasy writers would like a mulligan on, myself included. FootballOutsiders noted how significant his gains were in 2008, and he's continued to build on them. He's tied with his brother for the league lead in passes over 20 yards, and has only been sacked twice. It's so easy to forget that quarterbacks are still developing at his age, and the 2004 class seems to be just now hitting their prime. Manning's foot injury is a big concern, but he should provide excellent borderline QB1 value, possibly better.
Carson Palmer and
Kyle Orton have a 7-1 record combined, but have been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective. Neither player can hit the deep ball. Orton can't get the ball there in time; Palmer is just inaccurate. Orton has a built-in excuse on a new team. Maybe Palmer's is a missed preseason. Either way, they are a notch below where we expected them to be. …
David Garrard is avoiding interceptions and running the ball again. His schedule has been easy, but it stays easy. He's a prototype QB2, and a solid play against the Seahawks. …
Trent Edwards feels disappointing because of his last two games, but he's roughly where we expected. But if he can't turn in a plus day against the Browns at home while the weather is still nice, he's not going to be terribly useful.
Matt Cassel has quietly been a disappointment. His touchdowns have kept his numbers afloat, but the lack of aggression from the Kansas City passing attack is surprising. Cassel is completing passes, but is only ahead of
Marc Bulger and
JaMarcus Russell. It's hard to separate Cassel from the rest of the mess in Kansas City, but what's the difference? The one spot for optimism is that the schedule gets far easier after this week. …
Matthew Stafford (once healthy) and
Mark Sanchez can both carve out low-end QB2, which is about as good as can be expected. Stafford has the better chance to put up big numbers by year's end.
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Week 5 Running Backs | Rank | Player Name | Opponent | Notes |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | at STL | - |
| 2 | Maurice Jones-Drew | at SEA | - |
| 3 | Chris Johnson | vs. IND | - |
| 4 | Brandon Jacobs | vs. OAK | - |
| 5 | Brian Westbrook | vs. TB | Probable(ankle) |
| 6 | DeAngelo Williams | vs. WAS | - |
| 7 | Steve Slaton | at ARZ | - |
| 8 | Michael Turner | at SF | - |
| 9 | Steven Jackson | vs. MIN | - |
| 10 | Clinton Portis | at CAR | - |
| 11 | Rashard Mendenhall | at DET | - |
| 12 | Ronnie Brown | vs. NYJ | - |
| 13 | Glen Coffee | vs. ATL | - |
| 14 | Marion Barber | at KC | Probable(quadriceps) |
| 15 | Fred Jackson | vs. CLE | - |
| 16 | Ray Rice | vs. CIN | - |
| 17 | Cedric Benson | at BAL | Probable(hip) |
| 18 | Tim Hightower | vs. HOU | - |
| 19 | Kevin Smith | vs. PIT | Probable(shoulder) |
| 20 | Tashard Choice | at KC | - |
| 21 | Knowshon Moreno | vs. NE | - |
| 22 | LeSean McCoy | vs. TB | - |
| 23 | Jerome Harrison | at BUF | - |
| 24 | Ahmad Bradshaw | vs. OAK | Probable(ankle) |
| 25 | Marshawn Lynch | vs. CLE | - |
| 26 | Donald Brown | at TEN | - |
| 27 | Willis McGahee | vs. CIN | - |
| 28 | Thomas Jones | at MIA | - |
| 29 | Julius Jones | vs. JAC | - |
| 30 | Joseph Addai | at TEN | Questionable(hand) |
| 31 | Carnell Williams | at PHI | - |
| 32 | Larry Johnson | vs. DAL | - |
| 33 | Mewelde Moore | at DET | - |
| 34 | Jonathan Stewart | vs. WAS | Questionable(heel) |
| 35 | Sammy Morris | at DEN | - |
| 36 | Leon Washington | at MIA | - |
| 37 | Michael Bush | at NYG | - |
| 38 | Chris Wells | vs. HOU | - |
| 39 | Derrick Ward | at PHI | Probable(knee) |
| 40 | Laurence Maroney | at DEN | - |
| 41 | Ricky Williams | vs. NYJ | - |
| 42 | Jamal Lewis | at BUF | Questionable(hamstring) |
| 43 | Chester Taylor | at STL | - |
| 44 | Jamaal Charles | vs. DAL | - |
| 45 | Jerious Norwood | at SF | - |
| 46 | Justin Fargas | at NYG | - |
| 47 | LenDale White | vs. IND | - |
| 48 | Ladell Betts | at CAR | - |
| 49 | Chris Brown | at ARZ | - |
| 50 | Kevin Faulk | at DEN | - |
| 51 | LeRon McClain | vs. CIN | - |
| 52 | Peyton Hillis | vs. NE | - |
| 53 | Rashad Jennings | at SEA | - |
RB Notes: There hasn't been a lot of separation at running back this season. With so few people on pace for 300 carries, the position is more about depth and matchups. You just need to be the guy that's not starting
Willie Parker or
Larry Johnson essentially. … PPR rankings to this point are remarkably in line with preseason rankings:
Chris Johnson, Mo-Jo, and
Adrian Peterson are the top three. As bad as
Matt Forte has been, he's still in the top-15 and the conditions around him make us confident that he'll end up solidly in the top ten. …
Steven Jackson is a player Rotoworld would rank a tier lower if the season started today. He's still plenty valuable because of his consistent touches and the touchdowns will come, but it will tough to carve out many explosive days playing on that offense.
Michael Turner hasn't really answered or dismissed any concerns about a hangover of his heavy workload last year. But any case for him as the top fantasy pick was silly to begin with, and he certainly doesn't look like one. In this pass-heavy league, a running back that can't catch passes OR make people miss can't be the top overall back. … The rankings this week reflect how valuable backup running backs are this year, especially when a NFC East powerhouse is playing a weaker sister.
Ahmad Bradshaw and
LeSean McCoy are great options in the right matchup. McCoy is proving to be the best value of all the rookie runners.
Knowshon Moreno still has the highest ceiling, but I'm not sure his workload will increase that much even without
Correll Buckhalter in the lineup. Moreno is a good, not great RB2. McCoy can be a highly useful flex.
Donald Brown is exactly what we thought he might be, just outside the top-25, but there are signs he could improve as the season goes along. Beanie Wells has been a disappointment through three games, but remains a fine buy-low option. He's not going to live up to his draft slot, but we wouldn't bet against some monster games in his future for patient owners.
All things considered,
DeAngelo Williams is doing a good job producing considering his passing game and backup. He's not going to produce like the 2008 DeAngelo, but we knew that going in. Signs are encouraging thus far, and he's certainly looking like a better pick than
LaDainian Tomlinson and
Clinton Portis. … We took a lot of heat for ranking LT2 outside the top-15 overall picks, but we didn't rank him nearly low enough. I actually thought he showed signs of bounce and health despite his ugly Sunday night numbers, but his ceiling is low and his injury risk remains high. … The same goes for
Clinton Portis, who owners should deal after the Redskins get through with the soft part of their schedule.
We had
Fred Jackson ranked high, but not high enough, which kills me after nurturing him on my dynasty league roster for the last three years. I'm not sure what to expect from
Marshawn Lynch, although he will improve. But Jackson has earned a half share of the Bills workload, even if the coaching staff seems more eager than fans to go back to Lynch. … Because the Steelers are loyal to
Willie Parker and the schedule will get much tougher, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to see what you can get for
Rashard Mendenhall after he runs over the Lions and the Browns the next two weeks. But you may as well get your value from him while you can. … We've knocked Cadillac Williams plenty as an injury risk and he's certainly in a difficult situation. But anyone that has watched him run this year has to be impressed. Put him on another team and he'd be racking up 100-yard games; he's still very talented. I am not comfortable with
Derrick Ward as my RB3 in one league, so I'm resisting trading the guy in front of him on my depth chart (
Willis McGahee.)
Week 5 Wide Receivers | Rank | Player Name | Opponent | Notes |
| 1 | Larry Fitzgerald | vs. HOU | - |
| 2 | Andre Johnson | at ARZ | - |
| 3 | Reggie Wayne | at TEN | - |
| 4 | Randy Moss | at DEN | - |
| 5 | Calvin Johnson | vs. PIT | Probable(thigh) |
| 6 | Roddy White | at SF | - |
| 7 | Steve Smith | vs. WAS | - |
| 8 | DeSean Jackson | vs. TB | - |
| 9 | Anquan Boldin | vs. HOU | - |
| 10 | Chad Ochocinco | at BAL | - |
| 11 | Steve Smith | vs. OAK | - |
| 12 | Brandon Marshall | vs. NE | - |
| 13 | Hines Ward | at DET | - |
| 14 | Santonio Holmes | at DET | - |
| 15 | Wes Welker | at DEN | Questionable(knee) |
| 16 | Mike Sims-Walker | at SEA | - |
| 17 | Jerricho Cotchery | at MIA | - |
| 18 | Santana Moss | at CAR | - |
| 19 | Kevin Walter | at ARZ | - |
| 20 | Derrick Mason | vs. CIN | Probable(neck) |
| 21 | Terrell Owens | vs. CLE | - |
| 22 | Bernard Berrian | at STL | - |
| 23 | Lee Evans | vs. CLE | - |
| 24 | Dwayne Bowe | vs. DAL | - |
| 25 | Pierre Garcon | at TEN | - |
| 26 | Braylon Edwards | at MIA | - |
| 27 | Mario Manningham | vs. OAK | - |
| 28 | Nate Burleson | vs. JAC | - |
| 29 | Mohamed Massaquoi | at BUF | - |
| 30 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | vs. JAC | - |
| 31 | Percy Harvin | at STL | - |
| 32 | Patrick Crayton | at KC | - |
| 33 | Antonio Bryant | at PHI | Questionable(knee) |
| 34 | Kenny Britt | vs. IND | - |
| 35 | Nate Washington | vs. IND | Probable(concussion) |
| 36 | Josh Morgan | vs. ATL | - |
| 37 | Sidney Rice | at STL | - |
| 38 | Justin Gage | vs. IND | - |
| 39 | Torry Holt | at SEA | - |
| 40 | Donnie Avery | vs. MIN | Questionable(hamstring) |
| 41 | Isaac Bruce | vs. ATL | - |
| 42 | Miles Austin | at KC | - |
| 43 | Mark Clayton | vs. CIN | - |
| 44 | Steve Breaston | vs. HOU | Questionable(knee) |
| 45 | Mike Wallace | at DET | - |
| 46 | Eddie Royal | vs. NE | - |
| 47 | Ted Ginn Jr. | vs. NYJ | - |
| 48 | Jeremy Maclin | vs. TB | - |
| 49 | Louis Murphy | at NYG | - |
| 50 | Deion Branch | vs. JAC | - |
| 51 | Laveranues Coles | at BAL | - |
| 52 | Andre Caldwell | at BAL | - |
| 53 | Kelley Washington | vs. CIN | - |
| 54 | Chansi Stuckey | at BUF | - |
| 55 | Bobby Wade | vs. DAL | - |
| 56 | Mark Bradley | vs. DAL | - |
| 57 | Davone Bess | vs. NYJ | - |
| 58 | Jabar Gaffney | vs. NE | - |
| 59 | Antwaan Randle El | at CAR | - |
WR Notes: This was supposed to be the year of the wide receiver. And it has at times, but they haven't always been the ones drafted highly. The three highest scoring wideouts in Week 4 were
Steve Smith,
Mike Sims-Walker, and Mohammad Massaquoi. Smith and Sims-Walker are both in the top-ten in PPR points. … It almost seems too obvious to say, but owners need to stay patient or buy low on bonafied producers like
Greg Jennings and
Roddy White. Players like
Dwayne Bowe,
Roy Williams,
Lee Evans, and
Terrell Owens are bigger long-term concerns because of the situation around them. Of that group, I like Bowe to snap out of it the best.
Eddie Royal's total lack of production isn't going to stay this bad. We'd pick him up off waiver wires if available. …
Laveranues Coles and
Chris Henry are both under 80 yards for the season. Owners in 12-team leagues can give up. …
T.J. Houshmandzadeh and
Nate Burleson are both quietly getting a boatload of consistent targets. A return from
Matt Hasselbeck will help, but they are solid WR3s. As long as he stays healthy, Burleson should prove to be a good draft value.
The Titans wide receivers as a group have been far more valuable than expected because they have been trailing in games and throwing a ton.
Kenny Britt is a keeper and
Nate Washington is a fine bye week option, but a change to
Vince Young eventually isn't going to help. Not sure you can sell that high on either player, but now wouldn't be a bad time to try. … I wasn't sure how
Joe Flacco could have a second year leap with the players around him, but
Kelley Washington has emerged from nowhere and
Derrick Mason doesn't look like he's aged a day. This is nothing new for Mason, but he's still going to wind up being a great draft value if he puts up 1,000 yards and 5+ touchdowns as I expect.
Owners who took
Brandon Marshall early had to deal with an expected slow start, but they should feel good about the investment now. He's worked himself back into shape. There is a big hole every week in the rankings after the top 12-15 players and Marshall slides right in behind that. And he may move up. …
Chad Ochocinco is living up to his preseason promise, but he needs more help from
Carson Palmer to put up 2004-2007 era numbers. At worst, he's a rock solid WR1/2 and there aren't that many of those. …
Santonio Holmes is in line for a huge year, but it hasn't happened yet. Now would be an excellent time to trade for him.
Sidney Rice enters the countdown this week in a fairly high position. There just isn't a huge difference right now between him,
Bernard Berrian, and
Percy Harvin. … The trade to the Jets should ultimately help
Braylon Edwards, starting this year. They will probably try to feature him on a handful of plays in his first game, so the deal didn't move his value much this week.
Jerricho Cotchery moved down. …
Lance Moore has quietly been a bust. He should bounce back to usefulness, but there are probably too many options around him to live up to his preseason draft slot.
Week 5 Tight Ends| Rank | Player Name | Opponent | Notes |
| 1 | Jason Witten | at KC | - |
| 2 | Dallas Clark | at TEN | - |
| 3 | Tony Gonzalez | at SF | - |
| 4 | Brent Celek | vs. TB | - |
| 5 | Chris Cooley | at CAR | - |
| 6 | Owen Daniels | at ARZ | - |
| 7 | John Carlson | vs. JAC | - |
| 8 | Vernon Davis | vs. ATL | - |
| 9 | Dustin Keller | at MIA | - |
| 10 | Heath Miller | at DET | - |
| 11 | Todd Heap | vs. CIN | - |
| 12 | Kellen Winslow | at PHI | - |
| 13 | Zach Miller | at NYG | Questionable(concussion) |
| 14 | Marcedes Lewis | at SEA | - |
| 15 | Visanthe Shiancoe | at STL | - |
| 16 | Randy McMichael | vs. MIN | - |
| 17 | Ben Watson | at DEN | - |
| 18 | Bo Scaife | vs. IND | - |
| 19 | Alge Crumpler | vs. IND | - |
| 20 | Anthony Fasano | vs. NYJ | - |
| 21 | Tony Scheffler | vs. NE | - |
| 22 | Martellus Bennett | at KC | - |
Tight End Notes: 15 tight ends are on pace for 50 catches, which would set a NFL record. And is totally insane. It's more proof that a tight end taken high in the draft better be a huge difference-maker or he's not worth the early draft pick.
Dallas Clark has been.
Antonio Gates just had a difference-making game.
Jason Witten will be fine, but needs eight touchdowns to live up to his draft slot. … The kids at the position are all right. It will be interesting to see if
Brent Celek will stay on fire with
Donovan McNabb returning to the lineup, but he's a quality starter.
Vernon Davis has turned the corner, although he doesn't have the ceiling of players because the receptions and yardage won't quite be there. John Carlson isn't experiencing any second-year slump, although he could use
Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback again.
Davis and Celek were drafted as TE2s and now make fine weekly options. The same goes for
Heath Miller, who is benefiting from the pass-friendly approach in Pittsburgh. … There was concern
Tony Gonzalez would be de-emphasized in Atlanta, but the upgrade at quarterback makes up for it.
Matt Ryan will continue to look for him in the red zone.
All of this happiness almost makes the tight end position irrelevant, but there have been disappointments.
Greg Olsen is getting lost in all the wide receiver success in Chicago. That the Bears are racking up passing yards is good news long term. He may not bust out, but he'll bounce back closer to an
Owen Daniels-like level. … We haven't seen a passing attack as gnarly as Oakland's without a rookie quarterback involved in a while. Hold on to
Zach Miller, but don't expect him to emerge from the JaMarcus abyss until Oakland is finished with a brutal three game stretch coming up. …
Dustin Keller has been quiet the last two weeks, but we're not concerned about his value long term. …
Kellen Winslow, on the other hand, doesn't look explosive in the open field and
Josh Johnson won't help his value.
Week 5 Team DefenseWeek 5 Kickers