Brad Morgan

Red Zone Report

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Some Hope Left for L.J.?

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Can't We All Just Get Along?

DeAngelo Williams vs. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers RBs

Both of these guys look to be capable of carrying the full load as an every-down RB, however there are only so many carries to go around. This damning fact prevents either of these guys from reaching full value. For DeAngelo, he can't be a surefire RB1 each week. Williams is only getting 52% of RZ carries and 56% of GL carries, which combined with losing carries to JStew, really hurts his value.

For Stewart it makes him nothing more than a RB2 in good matchups. His chunk of the scoring opportunities (44% RZ, 38% GL) really serve more to hurt DeAngelo than to help Stewart's value. Stewart's main problem is, obviously, averaging less than 10 carries per week. At that rate, no one can be trusted.

The Panthers play an awful Bills run defense this week, so I wouldn't do anything rash with these guys until next week, when they will each be near their peak values. I do see them as great sell-high candidates after this week, seeing as they face one of the toughest schedules against the run from here on out (including Minnesota and the Giants in Weeks 15 and 16).

Brandon Jacobs vs. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants RBs

Last week, I felt confident Jacobs would regain his status as the Giants go-to RB. This week, not so much. Six games in, it's clear Bradshaw is the more effective RB. The once big gap in RZ and carry % between the two has shrunk significantly. Jacobs now sits at a pedestrian 58%, while Bradshaw climbs the ranks at 42%.

While they face a tough matchup in Arizona this week, Bradshaw is still a solid RB2 in all formats, while Jacobs is now relegated to being a fringe RB1. This is one situation that will be very interesting to watch, and it goes to show you should always handcuff your stud RBs.

Don't Give Up, Yet

Ryan Grant, Packers RB

Grant clearly doesn't have the same speed and acceleration as the guy we were introduced to in 2007. However, he still has a few things going for him. For starters, Grant plays in a good offense which generates a good amount of scoring opportunities. More importantly, Grant continues to receive nearly all of the Packers' carries in the RZ and GL. With 85% of RZ carries and 5 of 7 GL carries,

Grant is still be giving an elite chunk of his team's scoring chances.
Although Ahman Green was just signed, I see that more as a replacement for the disappointing Brandon Jackson than a bad omen for Grant. Stick with Grant. He's going to turn it around and start rewarding Mike McCarthy's trust in scoring opportunities.

Updated Red Zone Information for RBs:

PlayerTeamRZ CarriesTeam RZRZ%GL CarriesTeam GLGL %TDRZ tar 
Larry JohnsonKansas City Chiefs11111004410001 
Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars273090101010065 
Cedric BensonCincinnati Bengals1315873310022 
Ryan GrantGreen Bay Packers111385577222 
Steven JacksonSt. Louis Rams1113853310001 
Matt ForteChicago Bears242983788803 
Clinton PortisWashington Redskins1518833310014 
Michael TurnerAtlanta Falcons 1417826610040 
Kevin SmithDetroit Lions1519796106032 
Marion BarberDallas Cowboys121675898930 
Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers57721110011 
Willie ParkerPittsburgh Steelers71070236701 
Ronnie BrownMiami Dolphins28416812167551 
Ladanian TomlinsonSan Diego Chargers71164475711 
Marshawn LynchBuffalo Bills6106001001 
Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings18306010147152 
Tim HightowerArizona Cardinals71258458031 
Brandon JacobsNew York Giants193358466713 
LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles71258356011 
Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos162857374602 
Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills1018562210002 
Rashard MendenhallPittsburgh Steelers101856577240 
Jamal LewisCleveland Browns101953353300 
Willis McGaheeBaltimore Ravens152952466652 
DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers1427529165627 
Joseph AddaiIndiannapolis Colts152952393331 
Leon WashingtonNew York Jets112250125002 
Thomas JonesNew York Jets112250125040 
Cadillac WilliamsTampa Bay Buccaneers51050365022 
Donald BrownIndiannapolis Colts142948696720 
Darren SprolesSan Diego Chargers122548494418 
Jonathan StewartCarolina Panthers1227446163810 
Chris BrownHouston Texans122843568411 
Steve SlatonHouston Texans1228431616 3 
Julius JonesSeattle Seahawks37431110001 
Ahmad BradshawNew York Giants143342263330 
Brian WestbrookPhiladelphia Eagles51242254012 
Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens122941161705 
Derrick WardTampa Bay Buccaneers41040365010

Updated Red Zone statistics for WRs:

PlayerTeam RZ TargetsTeam RZRZ%TD
Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals1126423
Greg OlsenChicago Bears1130371
Steve SmithNew York Giants1028364
Andre JohnsonHouston Texans1035293
Heath MillerPittsburgh Steelers921434
Owen DanielsHouston Texans935263
Nate WashingtonTennesee Titans814573
Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons822362
Chad OchocincoCincinnati Bengals827303
TJ HoushmandzadehSeattle Seahawks829281
Sidney RiceMinnesota Vikings830271
Marques ColstonNew Orleans Saints831264
Randy MossNew England Patriots842192
Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers715473
Anthony FasanoMiami Dolphins720351
Mike Sims-WalkerJacksonville Jaguars723303
Mark ClaytonBaltimore Ravens725281
Brent CelekPhiladelphia Eagles725281
Eddie RoyalDenver Broncos72627 
Reggie WayneIndianapolis Colts726274
Jhonny KnoxChicago Bears730232
Bernard BerrianMinnesota Vikings730231
Dwayne BoweKansas City Chiefs731222
Wes WelkerNew England Patriots742172
Braylon EdwardsNew York Jets616381
Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions621281
Jason AvantPhiladelphia Eagles625241
Austin CollieIndianapolis Colts626232
Andre CaldwellCincinnati Bengals627222
Nate BurlesonSeattle Seahawks629212
Visante SchiancoeMinnesota Vikings630205
Roddy White Atlanta Falcons522231
Laveranues ColesCincinnati Bengals527191
Anquan BoldinArizona Cardinals526191
Brandon MarshallDenver Broncos526194
Mario MannighamNew York Giants528182
John CarlsonSeattle Seahawks529172
Antonio BryantTampa Bay Buccaneers529171
Kellen WinslowTampa Bay Buccaneers529173
Bobby WadeKansas City Chiefs531162
Heath EvansNew Orleans Saints531161
Jeremy ShockeyNew Orleans Saints531162
Ben WatsonNew England Patriots542122


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