Brad Morgan

Red Zone Report

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The Airing of Grievances

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Pleasant Surprises

Austin Collie, Colts WR

Seriously, aside from Colts fans, who really knew who Austin Collie was before this season? Peyton Manning, that's who. Thus far, Collie has produced enough value to rank as the 24th best WR. A huge reason for that success has been Manning's affinity for Collie in scoring situations. Although Peyton maintains that he just looks to hit the open man, I don't think it's a coincidence that Collie has been targeted just one fewer time than Reggie Wayne in the Red Zone.

Manning has looked for Collie 27.3% of the time and Wayne just a tick higher at 30.3% in those important scoring situations. As a result, it makes sense that Collie has just 2 fewer touchdowns than Wayne, despite having an astounding 35 fewer targets overall. Though he's produced like a low end WR2 to this point, I think Collie will have solid value as a WR3 going forward.

Steve Smith, Giants WR

Once Plaxico Burress got shipped up to Rikers, it became clear that one of the Giants many young wide outs would have to step up and fill those big shoes. Although Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks have been useful, Steve Smith has emerged as the clear #1 option for Eli Manning. Not only has he been the most targeted Giant, only 2 receivers have been thrown more passes than Smith's 76: Andre Johnson (80) and Reggie Wayne (77).

Eli's love for the artist formerly known as "the other Steve Smith" has carried over into the Red Zone, shown by Smith being targeted with 33.3% of Manning's passes inside of the 20. His scoring potential has been unexpected and welcomed value boost for a player most saw as a ho-hum possession receiver.

Sidney Rice, Vikings WR

Rice has been a huge surprise, emerging as an essential cog in the Vikings offense. He's received 23.8% of Brett Favre's RZ looks, and 10 total, which ties him with Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Randy Moss for 4th most in the NFL. I covered him extensively last week, but I would've been remiss to not mention him as one of the best surprises of the season.

Vernon Davis, 49ers TE

Leading all TEs in RZ target percentage is the once forgotten Vernon Davis. Whatever coach Mike Singletary told him, it worked. Davis has been the 2nd most valuable Tight End this year, and you would be hard pressed to find anyone who predicted that.

Going forward Davis remains a top notch TE option. He has an elusive combination of electrifying talent -- giving him the potential to break off big gains -- and his team's trust as a go-to option in scoring situations, giving him the potential for many easy scores.

Owen Daniels, Texans TE

It's really a shame Daniels got hurt because he was putting together a breakout season. Not only is Daniels currently the #1 ranked TE, he's also the leader in RZ targets with 11. Unfortunately, there's not much else to say here, except that it remains to see how his chunk of RZ targets (27.5% of Matt Schaub's passes inside the 20) will be distributed. Look for Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter to pick up the slack.

Updated Red-Zone Statistics for RBs, WRs, and TEs:

PlayerTeamRZ CarTeam RZRZ%GL CarTeam GLGL %TDRZ tarRZ Chances
Cedric BensonCincinnati Bengals222491.7%44100.0%3224
Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars273090.0%1010100.0%6532
Steven JacksonSt. Louis Rams141687.5%33100.0%0216
Ryan GrantGreen Bay Packers192382.6%81172.7%3423
Matt ForteChicago Bears334082.5%7887.5%2336
Clinton PortisWashington Redskins172181.0%44100.0%1421
Michael TurnerAtlanta Falcons 202580.0%88100.0%6020
Ladanian TomlinsonSan Diego Chargers232979.3%151883.3%5124
Marshawn LynchBuffalo Bills152075.0%4666.7%1318
Marion BarberDallas Cowboys152075.0%101190.9%4015
Kevin SmithDetroit Lions162272.7%61250.0%3218
Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers5771.4%11100.0%127
Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings334868.8%172181.0%7235
Ronnie BrownMiami Dolphins355366.0%121866.7%6136
Brandon JacobsNew York Giants284365.1%71070.0%2432
LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles91464.3%3560.0%1110
Jamal LewisCleveland Browns162564.0%7977.8%0016
Willie ParkerPittsburgh Steelers81361.5%2366.7%019
Lendale WhiteTennesee Titans81361.5%22100.0%108
Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos193161.3%3742.9%1221
Joseph AddaiIndiannapolis Colts223661.1%41040.0%4123
Thomas JonesNew York Jets233860.5%7887.5%6023
Rashard MendenhallPittsburgh Steelers122157.1%5771.4%4012
Jonathan StewartCarolina Panthers203754.1%71741.2%3121
Beanie WellsArizona Cardinals122352.2%2922.2%1012
Cadillac WilliamsTampa Bay Buccaneers51050.0%3650.0%227
Glen CoffeeSan Francisco 49ers51050.0%2366.7%116
Justin ForsettSeattle Seahawks4850.0%010.0%026
Julius JonesSeattle Seahawks4850.0%11100.0%015
Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders4850.0%1250.0%115
Tashard ChoiceDallas Cowboys71546.7%3742.9%129
Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens153444.1%2728.6%0621
Willis McGaheeBaltimore Ravens153444.1%4757.1%5217
Tim HightowerArizona Cardinals102343.5%7977.8%5111
DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers163743.2%91752.9%3824
Justin FargasOakland Raiders81942.1%2728.6%119
Brian WestbrookPhiladelphia Eagles51241.7%2540.0%127
Derrick WardTampa Bay Buccaneers41040.0%3650.0%104
Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills112839.3%3742.9%0213
Donald BrownIndiannapolis Colts143638.9%61060.0%2014
Steve SlatonHouston Texans164238.1%21020.0%1420
Chris BrownHouston Texans164238.1%51050.0%1218
Laurence MaroneyNew England Patriots133636.1%2540.0%1013
Amhad BradshawNew York Giants154334.9%31030.0%4015
Mike BellNew Orleans Saints164932.7%51827.8%2016
Michael BushOakland Raiders61931.6%4757.1%206
Chris JohnsonTennesee Titans41330.8%020.0%004
Pierre ThomasNew Orleans Saints154930.6%71838.9%2116
Darren SprolesSan Diego Chargers134330.2%42020.0%1821
Leon WashingtonNew York Jets113828.9%1812.5%0213
Reggie BushNew Orleans Saints144928.6%21811.1%3923
Jerome HarrisonCleveland Browns72528.0%090.0% 07
Ricky WilliamsMiami Dolphins145326.4%51827.8%4317
Correll BuckhalterDenver Broncos73122.6%1714.3%018

PlayerTeam RZ TargetsTeam RZRZ%TD
Marques ColstonNew Orleans Saints144531.1%6
Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals133537.1%3
Steve SmithNew York Giants113333.3%4
Chad OchocincoCincinnati Bengals113630.6%5
Owen DanielsHouston Texans114027.5%3
Greg OlsenChicago Bears114126.8%1
Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers101952.6%6
Brent CelekPhiladelphia Eagles103033.3%2
Reggie WayneIndianapolis Colts103330.3%6
Andre JohnsonHouston Texans104025.0%3
Sidney RiceMinnesota Vikings104223.8%1
Randy MossNew England Patriots104621.7%2
Nate WashingtonTennesee Titans91560.0%3
Heath MillerPittsburgh Steelers92536.0%4
Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons92634.6%2
Austin CollieIndianapolis Colts93327.3%3
Dwayne BoweKansas City Chiefs93525.7%3
Jhonny KnoxChicago Bears94122.0%2
Bernard BerrianMinnesota Vikings94221.4%2
Visante SchiancoeMinnesota Vikings94221.4%6
Braylon EdwardsNew York Jets82334.8%2
Mike Sims-WalkerJacksonville Jaguars82433.3%3
TJ HoushmandzadehSeattle Seahawks83125.8%1
Wes WelkerNew England Patriots84617.4%2
Anthony FasanoMiami Dolphins72330.4%1
Roddy White Atlanta Falcons72626.9%1
Mark ClaytonBaltimore Ravens72626.9%1
Eddie RoyalDenver Broncos73023.3% 
Greg JenningsGreen Bay Packers73321.2%1
Donald LeeGreen Bay Packers73321.2% 
Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers73321.2%1
Vincent JacksonSan Diego Chargers73321.2%2
Andre CaldwellCincinnati Bengals73619.4%2
Laveranues ColesCincinnati Bengals73619.4%2
Desmond ClarkChicago Bears74117.1%0
Devin HesterChicago Bears74117.1%1
Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions62128.6%1
Lee EvansBuffalo Bills62524.0%1
Randy McMichaelSt. Louis Rams62920.7% 
Brandon MarshallDenver Broncos63020.0%4
Jason AvantPhiladelphia Eagles63020.0%1
Nate BurlesonSeattle Seahawks63119.4%2
Donald DriverGreen Bay Packers63318.2%2
Miles AustinDallas Cowboys63417.6%2
Roy WilliamsDallas Cowboys63417.6%2
Jeremy ShockeyNew Orleans Saints64513.3%2
Steve SmithCarolina Panthers52420.8%1
Dustin KellerNew York Jets52420.8%2
Terrel OwensBuffalo Bills52520.0% 
Derrick MasonBaltimore Ravens52619.2%3
Antonio BryantTampa Bay Buccaneers52917.2%1
Kellen WinslowTampa Bay Buccaneers52917.2%3
Devin ThomasWashington Redskins52917.2%1
Santana MossWashington Redskins52917.2% 
Tony ShefflerDenver Broncos53016.7%2
DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles53016.7% 
John CarlsonSeattle Seahawks53116.1%2
Mario MannighamNew York Giants53315.2%2
Malcom FloydSan Diego Chargers53315.2%2
Anquan BoldinArizona Cardinals53514.3%1
Steve BreastonArizona Cardinals53514.3%1
Bobby WadeKansas City Chiefs53514.3%2
Chris HenryCincinnati Bengals53613.9%2
Heath EvansNew Orleans Saints54511.1%1
Ben WatsonNew England Patriots54610.9%2


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