Brad Morgan

Red Zone Report

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Gettin' Down with the Wildcat

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Everything that glitters isn't gold

Laurence Maroney, Patriots RB

Facing the 31st ranked Buffalo's run defense this week, Maroney seems like a no brainer start. But lately the Bill Belichick of old has begun to reappear. For a while it looked like Maroney was the clear cut #1, but after losing fumbles in 3 straight games (Weeks 10,11,12), the Patriots have gone to a more diverse running game over the past two weeks.

While it appeared this past week (with his 22 carries) that Maroney had rebounded, he was given roughly the same disappointing portion of the Patriots carries as in Week 13 (when he had 13 for 41 yards). This past week he got 22 of New England's 40 carries, and 13 of their 25 two weeks ago. Getting 54% of your teams carries isn't good enough, and is a real hit to Maroney's value.

In addition, Maroney's dominance of the Patriots' carries in scoring situations has ended. After getting nearly every RZ and GL carry since Sammy Morris got hurt, the past two weeks have seen Maroney receive slightly less than 50% in the RZ and on the GL. This has cost him a TD in each of the past two games (Kevin Faulk got both).

Although this is all bad news for Maroney, he's still facing Buffalo which makes him a good RB2 option. As far as the other guys in the backfield go, Morris is the most effective runner, but Kevin Faulk has converted 2 GL carries for TDs in two straight weeks; still I'd opt for Morris as a decent Flex play.

Quinton Ganther, Redskins RB

Yes, Ganther had an awesome Week 14 in fantasy. But let's face it: any RB facing the Raiders has a real chance to produce significant value. The good news is that Ganther seems to be the Redskins #1 RB in the Red Zone too, getting 4 out of 5 RZ carries, and all 3 on the Goal Line (converting for 2 TDs).

The bad news is that he managed just 3.6 yards per carry against one of the easiest teams to run on in football. More bad news: He's facing the Giants and Cowboys over the next two weeks, two competent run defenses (ranked 17th and 13th). So despite his great debut as starting RB for the Skins, I'd say Ganther should be relegated to being no more than a solid Flex option.

Updated Red Zone Statistics for RBs, WRs, and TEs:

PlayerTeamRZ CarTeam RZRZ%GL CarTeam GLGL %TDRZ tarRZ Chances
Cedric BensonCincinnati Bengals414395.3%66100.0%4243
Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars586195.1%2222100.0%9765
Steven JacksonSt. Louis Rams283093.3%1111100.0%3432
Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers192286.4%66100.0%4928
Michael TurnerAtlanta Falcons 242982.8%1111100.0%7125
Matt ForteChicago Bears455778.9%141593.3%3348
Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings598172.8%273284.4%11362
Rashard MendenhallPittsburgh Steelers263672.2%7977.8%5228
Ryan GrantGreen Bay Packers334671.7%131681.3%6740
Ladanian TomlinsonSan Diego Chargers486969.6%273284.4%10149
LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles202969.0%41233.3%2424
Marion BarberDallas Cowboys263966.7%141687.5%4228
Kevin SmithDetroit Lions203066.7%81457.1%4525
Julius JonesSeattle Seahawks121866.7%44100.0%1214
Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos416266.1%71258.3%4546
Thomas JonesNew York Jets335263.5%91090.0%8134
Joseph AddaiIndiannapolis Colts457262.5%142263.6%9853
Brandon JacobsNew York Giants416662.1%131776.5%5445
Chris JohnsonTennesee Titans284858.3%111764.7%4533
Jonathan StewartCarolina Panthers366357.1%122352.2%5137
Beanie WellsArizona Cardinals254555.6%41723.5%5025
Marshawn LynchBuffalo Bills203655.6%4850.0%2424
Cadillac WilliamsTampa Bay Buccaneers122254.5%51050.0%3315
Justin FargasOakland Raiders132454.2%61154.5%3114
Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens356653.0%61833.3%2944
Laurence MaroneyNew England Patriots377152.1%121866.7%7037
Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills224450.0%5955.6%2426
DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers245543.6%102147.6%41135
Jamal CharlesKansas City Chiefs133043.3%3742.9%1417
Tim HightowerArizona Cardinals194542.2%121770.6%6322
Chris BrownHouston Texans266540.0%71643.8%3531
Brian WestbrookPhiladelphia Eagles41040.0%1250.0%126
Ricky WilliamsMiami Dolphins328239.0%112740.7%8739
Willie ParkerPittsburgh Steelers92437.5%2366.7%0110
Pierre ThomasNew Orleans Saints287736.4%82532.0%3836
Amhad BradshawNew York Giants246636.4%41723.5%5024
Jason SnellingAtlanta Falcons 164436.4%61735.3%3016
Derrick WardTampa Bay Buccaneers82236.4%41040.0%119
Tashard ChoiceDallas Cowboys123435.3%41233.3%2214
Willis McGaheeBaltimore Ravens236634.8%101855.6%9427
Mike BellNew Orleans Saints267733.8%102540.0%4026
Lendale WhiteTennesee Titans154831.3%51729.4%2015

PlayerTeam RZ TargetsTeam RZRZ%TD
Brandon MarshallDenver Broncos316845.6%7
Brent CelekPhiladelphia Eagles257334.2%6
Marques ColstonNew Orleans Saints248927.0%8
Andre JohnsonHouston Texans237032.9%6
Steve SmithNew York Giants226136.1%5
Randy MossNew England Patriots227529.3%4
TJ HoushmandzadehSeattle Seahawks216930.4%2
Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals206331.7%7
Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons206331.7%3
Reggie WayneIndianapolis Colts208124.7%9
Greg OlsenChicago Bears196728.4%4
Sidney RiceMinnesota Vikings187424.3%3
Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers175431.5%9
Roddy White Atlanta Falcons176327.0%3
Chad OchocincoCincinnati Bengals176327.0%6
Miles AustinDallas Cowboys176625.8%5
Roy WilliamsDallas Cowboys166624.2%4
Bernard BerrianMinnesota Vikings167421.6%3
Visante SchiancoeMinnesota Vikings167421.6%9
Steve SmithCarolina Panthers154334.9%3
Nate WashingtonTennesee Titans154831.3%4
Santana MossWashington Redskins156025.0%1
Austin CollieIndianapolis Colts158118.5%4
Pierre GarconIndianapolis Colts158118.5%1
Hines WardPittsburgh Steelers145028.0%4
Josh MorganSan Francisco 49ers145425.9%2
Jhonny KnoxChicago Bears146720.9%3
Jason AvantPhiladelphia Eagles147319.2%2
Wes WelkerNew England Patriots147518.7%2
Donald DriverGreen Bay Packers148017.5%4
Mike Sims-WalkerJacksonville Jaguars134330.2%5
Dwayne BoweKansas City Chiefs134628.3%3
Bo ScaifeTennesee Titans134827.1%1
Heath MillerPittsburgh Steelers135026.0%4
Vincent JacksonSan Diego Chargers135225.0%4
Andre CaldwellCincinnati Bengals136320.6%3
Greg JenningsGreen Bay Packers128015.0%1
Dallas ClarkIndianapolis Colts128114.8%6
Braylon EdwardsNew York Jets113729.7%3
Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers115221.2%4
Devin HesterChicago Bears116716.4%1
John CarlsonSeattle Seahawks116915.9%3
Owen DanielsHouston Texans117015.7%3
DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles117315.1%0
Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions103231.3%2
Chansi StuckeyCleveland Browns103330.3%1
Terrel OwensBuffalo Bills103826.3%0
Derrick MasonBaltimore Ravens104223.8%3
Mario MannighamNew York Giants106116.4%2
Anquan BoldinArizona Cardinals106315.9%3
Laveranues ColesCincinnati Bengals106315.9%2
Nate BurlesonSeattle Seahawks106914.5%2
Lee EvansBuffalo Bills93823.7%2
Mark ClaytonBaltimore Ravens94221.4%1
Anthony FasanoMiami Dolphins94420.5%1
Santonio HolmesPittsburgh Steelers95018.0%0
Devin ThomasWashington Redskins96015.0%2
Kevin BossNew York Giants96114.8%4
Steve BreastonArizona Cardinals96314.3%2
Patrick CraytonDallas Cowboys96613.6%1
Eddie RoyalDenver Broncos96813.2%0
Kevin WalterHouston Texans97012.9%1
Jeremy MaclinPhiladelphia Eagles97312.3%1
Donald LeeGreen Bay Packers98011.3%1
Dustin KellerNew York Jets83821.1%2
Jerricho CotcheryNew York Jets83821.1%2
Torry HoltJacksonville Jaguars84318.6%0
Randy McMichaelSt. Louis Rams84717.0%1
Kellen WinslowTampa Bay Buccaneers84717.0%4
Antonio BryantTampa Bay Buccaneers84717.0%1
Fred DavisWashington Redskins86013.3%4
Chris ChambersKansas City Chiefs86212.9%2
Bobby WadeKansas City Chiefs86412.5%2
Tony ShefflerDenver Broncos86811.8%2
Jeremy ShockeyNew Orleans Saints8899.0%2
Donnie AverySt. Louis Rams74714.9%2
Brian FenneranAtlanta Falcons76311.1%0
Desmond ClarkChicago Bears76710.4%0
Percy HarvinMinnesota Vikings7749.5%3
Jermichael FinleyGreen Bay Packers7808.8%2
Robert MeachemNew Orleans Saints7897.9%2


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