WIDE RECEIVERSJosh Morgan, 49ers – Let's face it: the wide receiver options are pedestrian at best this week. Morgan isn't going to blow up for 100+ yards, but fantasy owners may be surprised to learn that he's cleared six catches in three of the past four weeks with a touchdown in two of his past three games. Morgan ranks as the No. 28 fantasy receiver in the spread offense over the past three weeks, and the matchup couldn't be better with the Lions' league-worst secondary coming to town in Week 16.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Mike Wallace, Steelers – We've pointed out multiple times this season that Wallace is more than just a deep threat, and he proved it last week with a tight sideline catch in the end zone to win an instant classic in Pittsburgh. For fantasy purposes, though, Wallace remains dependent on the long touchdown. The Ravens lost their fastest corner,
Lardarius Webb, to an ACL injury, so the matchup is right for Wallace to do some damage in Week 16.
Hines Ward reportedly had a setback with his hamstring injury, so Wallace could be in line for more action than expected.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Deon Butler, Seahawks – As expected, Butler and
Deion Branch split production with
Nate Burleson out last week. While the rookie continues to show potential, Branch only proved that he's washed up. Branch was targeted on three of
Matt Hasselbeck's four picks and generally let 10 targets go to waste. Though Butler was held to just three catches for 30 yards on six targets against the Bucs, the speedy playmaker has earned a longer look the final two weeks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Demetrius Williams, Ravens – The good news is that Williams has emerged as a much-needed deep threat for
Joe Flacco, culminating in a 4-71-1 performance against the Bears. The bad news is that
Mark Clayton and
Kelley Washington both expect to return for the Steelers game this week. Williams can't be trusted in Week 16, but he could be an option next week at Oakland if he can keep Clayton at bay.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Greg Camarillo, Dolphins – The No. 35 fantasy wide receiver over the past three weeks, Camarillo hasn't reached the end zone all season, so he's only an option in PPR leagues. Bypassing
Davone Bess as
Chad Henne's go-to option, Camarillo has been targeted at least seven times in each of the past three games, averaging five catches for 72 yards. He's a viable WR3 in PPR leagues this week.
Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues
Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Floyd surprisingly led the Chargers with nine targets last week, with
Philip Rivers looking for him on deep balls. San Diego's No. 2 receiver hasn't been below three catches in the past six games, so owners don't have to worry about a goose egg. The flip side is that he hasn't cleared 85 yards or found the end zone over the same period. Floyd is only an option for desperate owners in deep leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Keeper League Specials: James Jones / Jordy Nelson, Packers –
Donald Driver's future is up in the air with a $3 million roster bonus in March on top of a $4 million salary for 2010.
Early Doucet, Cardinals – If
Anquan Boldin is traded this offseason, Doucet moves into the
Steve Breaston role.
Laurent Robinson, Rams – One of my favorite early-season waiver targets will be healthy and likely starting in 2010.
Chaz Schilens, Raiders - Schilens is plenty talented. If the Raiders land a legit NFL quarterback this offseason, he could break out next year.
Brandon Tate, Patriots – The Patriots are in desperate need of a No. 3 receiver. If Tate is fully healthy in 2010, he could fill the void while maintaining value in return yardage leagues.
Cut Bait Steve Breaston - Hasn't been a fantasy factor since Boldin returned to full health over a month ago.
Devin Aromashodu - Targeted 10 times but caught just two passes in Chicago's woebegone passing attack.
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The folks at footballoutsiders.com had to be smiling from ear to ear by the time Sunday evening rolled around. Each year in their offseason edition of
Football Outsiders Almanac), they analyze and put forth the NFL's Top 25 prospects. Unlike in baseball, their list does not involve rookies. Instead it's a list of underappreciated young players that have flashed ability in small doses, or talented backups just an injury away from a starting job.
The 2009 edition of the Top 25 list reads like an all-star team of waiver pickups. No. 1 prospect
Miles Austin, easily the top wide receiver waiver addition this season, continued his Pro Bowl caliber season, exploding on the previously undefeated Saints Saturday night for a 7-139-1 line.
Michael Bush (No. 20), Oakland's most effective runner in spotty playing time this year, came off the bench with 144 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches to lead the Raiders to an upset victory in Denver.
Jamaal Charles (No. 13), the top running back pickup this season and possible fantasy playoff MVP, squared off against
Jerome Harrison (No. 6) in a scoring bonanza at Arrowhead Stadium. Charles, the No. 2 fantasy back since taking over as the starter in Week 10, totaled a career-high 170 yards and one touchdown on 27 touches while Harrison shattered the immortal Jim Brown's team record with 286 yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries.
It just so happens that the top waiver wire options for Week 16 are two prospects squaring off against each other in Cleveland this Sunday. Harrison, owned in just 49 percent of all CBSSports.com leagues, faces a Raiders defense surrendering the fifth most points to opposing backs while Bush takes on a Browns defense fairing even worse. As long as Tom Cable and Eric Mangini cooperate, this should be another fantasy feast.
Other members of the
Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Top 25 list that were featured on Waiver Wired this season:
No. 3:
Jerious NorwoodNo. 9:
Tashard ChoiceNo. 14:
Josh MorganNo. 18:
Pierre GarconHonorable Mention:
Ahmad Bradshaw,
Justin ForsettOn to the waiver lists. Here is how I rank the top players available at each position as we head into championship week. Full writeups of each player are below.
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Running Backs1.
Jerome Harrison2.
Michael Bush3.
Maurice Morris4.
Darren McFadden 5.
Leonard Weaver6.
Ryan MoatsQuarterbacks1.
Chad Henne2.
Matt Moore3.
Josh Freeman 4.
Drew StantonWide Receivers1.
Josh Morgan2.
Mike Wallace3.
Deon Butler4.
Demetrius Williams5.
Greg Camarillo6.
Malcom FloydTight Ends1.
Bo Scaife2.
David Thomas3.
Todd HeapDefenses1. 49ers
2. Cardinals
3. Falcons
RUNNING BACKSJerome Harrison, Browns – Harrison wasn't just the No. 6 prospect in the 2009
Football Outsiders Almanac. He was also the No. 6 prospect in the 2008 version and honorable mention in the 2007 version. The Pac-10's leading rusher during
Reggie Bush's final season at USC, Harrison has been wasting away on the Browns' bench the past two seasons only to go crazy at Kansas City in Week 15. Let's get one thing straight, however: the Chiefs are an awful defense, and they're getting worse. For the season, they surrender the 2nd most points to opposing backs. Over the past three weeks, they've allowed an average of 245 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns per game. Harrison was set up for a fluke performance in Arrowhead last week, and to his credit he came through with the third-best afternoon in NFL history. Even Eric Mangini can't bench Harrison after that record-breaking performance. Right?
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Michael Bush, Raiders – Bush has been Oakland's most effective runner since late last season when he dropped 183 yards and two touchdowns on the Bucs defense. He's now responsible for the only two 100-yard performances in the Oakland backfield this season, and he's up to a gaudy 5.0 yards per carry. Someone needs to alert coach Tom Cable. Just days after Cable said there was "no room" in the backfield for him, Bush came off the bench for 144 yards on 19 touches to lead the Raiders to a shocking upset victory in Denver.
Cable wouldn't commit to a starter for this week's game, though it's tough to imagine him going back to the more pedestrian
Justin Fargas with two games left. I like Bush as a high-risk, high-reward play in a favorable matchup against the Browns this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Maurice Morris, Lions – Coordinator Scott Linehan followed through on his promise to use Morris in a feature back role similar to the way
Kevin Smith was used. Morris responded with 161 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches against the Cardinals. While Morris owners won't be able to count on a 64-yard touchdown scamper this week against the 49ers' fifth-ranked run defense, his pass-catching ability makes him a viable RB2/flex option. Just don't expect a repeat of last week's numbers.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Darren McFadden, Raiders – Totaling 179 yards in Weeks 14 and 15, McFadden is coming off his two best games of the season. Unfortunately for him, his 6.2 yards per carry performance against the Broncos coincided with
Michael Bush's breakout game. Bush and McFadden have earned the top two spots in the backfield for this week's game at Cleveland, but McFadden is going to have to make an impact as a receiver. He's only an option as a high-risk flex play.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Leonard Weaver, Eagles – Steadily gaining more responsibilities in the Eagles' offensive game plan, Weaver carried the ball 17 times after Philly jumped out to an early lead last week. Coach Andy Reid expects
Brian Westbrook (concussion) to be fully cleared for this week's game, so Weaver could be back to 8-10 touches against the Broncos. I wouldn't feel comfortable using him as anything more than a desperation flex play.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Ryan Moats, Texans – Tread lightly in the Texans backfield.
Arian Foster appeared poised for a big game during the game's first possession last week, seeing most of the touches before fumbling. Coach Gary Kubiak sent Foster to the doghouse thereafter, replacing him with the equally fumble-prone Moats. While Moats is the best bet for touches this week, he could be pulled at a moment's notice. The Dolphins' run defense is above average, so the Houston backs aren't worth the headache this week.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Long-Term Fliers Mike Hart - Hart is playing ahead of
Chad Simpson and figures to see the majority of the backfield touches if
Joseph Addai is rested in Week 17.
Donald Brown - Brown (chest) hasn't played since Week 11, so his best-case scenario is a Week 17 return as the Colts kick his tires to see if he can be a contributor during the playoffs.
Keeper League Specials LenDale White - If a new CBA is reached, White is set to hit free agency. He'd work out nicely as the early-down back in a place like San Diego.
Larry Johnson - LJ signed just a one-year deal with Cincy last month. His 4.7 yards per carry with the Bengals suggests he may have something left in the tank afterall.
Cut Bait Justin Fargas - Watched Bush and McFadden blow up for over 210 yards while he sat on the sidelines with a tweaked knee.
Chris Jennings - Harrison's record-breaking day should keep Jennings on the bench the rest of the way.
Sammy Morris -
Laurence Maroney has a firm grip on the starting job.
WIDE RECEIVERSJosh Morgan, 49ers – Let's face it: the wide receiver options are pedestrian at best this week. Morgan isn't going to blow up for 100+ yards, but fantasy owners may be surprised to learn that he's cleared six catches in three of the past four weeks with a touchdown in two of his past three games. Morgan ranks as the No. 28 fantasy receiver in the spread offense over the past three weeks, and the matchup couldn't be better with the Lions' league-worst secondary coming to town in Week 16.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Mike Wallace, Steelers – We've pointed out multiple times this season that Wallace is more than just a deep threat, and he proved it last week with a tight sideline catch in the end zone to win an instant classic in Pittsburgh. For fantasy purposes, though, Wallace remains dependent on the long touchdown. The Ravens lost their fastest corner,
Lardarius Webb, to an ACL injury, so the matchup is right for Wallace to do some damage in Week 16.
Hines Ward reportedly had a setback with his hamstring injury, so Wallace could be in line for more action than expected.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Deon Butler, Seahawks – As expected, Butler and
Deion Branch split production with
Nate Burleson out last week. While the rookie continues to show potential, Branch only proved that he's washed up. Branch was targeted on three of
Matt Hasselbeck's four picks and generally let 10 targets go to waste. Though Butler was held to just three catches for 30 yards on six targets against the Bucs, the speedy playmaker has earned a longer look the final two weeks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Demetrius Williams, Ravens – The good news is that Williams has emerged as a much-needed deep threat for
Joe Flacco, culminating in a 4-71-1 performance against the Bears. The bad news is that
Mark Clayton and
Kelley Washington both expect to return for the Steelers game this week. Williams can't be trusted in Week 16, but he could be an option next week at Oakland if he can keep Clayton at bay.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Greg Camarillo, Dolphins – The No. 35 fantasy wide receiver over the past three weeks, Camarillo hasn't reached the end zone all season, so he's only an option in PPR leagues. Bypassing
Davone Bess as
Chad Henne's go-to option, Camarillo has been targeted at least seven times in each of the past three games, averaging five catches for 72 yards. He's a viable WR3 in PPR leagues this week.
Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues
Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Floyd surprisingly led the Chargers with nine targets last week, with
Philip Rivers looking for him on deep balls. San Diego's No. 2 receiver hasn't been below three catches in the past six games, so owners don't have to worry about a goose egg. The flip side is that he hasn't cleared 85 yards or found the end zone over the same period. Floyd is only an option for desperate owners in deep leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Keeper League Specials: James Jones / Jordy Nelson, Packers –
Donald Driver's future is up in the air with a $3 million roster bonus in March on top of a $4 million salary for 2010.
Early Doucet, Cardinals – If
Anquan Boldin is traded this offseason, Doucet moves into the
Steve Breaston role.
Laurent Robinson, Rams – One of my favorite early-season waiver targets will be healthy and likely starting in 2010.
Chaz Schilens, Raiders - Schilens is plenty talented. If the Raiders land a legit NFL quarterback this offseason, he could break out next year.
Brandon Tate, Patriots – The Patriots are in desperate need of a No. 3 receiver. If Tate is fully healthy in 2010, he could fill the void while maintaining value in return yardage leagues.
Cut Bait Steve Breaston - Hasn't been a fantasy factor since Boldin returned to full health over a month ago.
Devin Aromashodu - Targeted 10 times but caught just two passes in Chicago's woebegone passing attack.
Editor's Note: Not happy with your fantasy teams? New weekly leagues are drafting every single day
at Snapdraft. Draft your team during the week, even Sunday morning, and win cash by Tuesday. It's a great complement to your yearly leagues and
rewards the most skilled fantasy players who know matchups and value.
QUARTERBACKSChad Henne, Dolphins – Henne is still growing as an NFL quarterback, but he's showing enough each week to continue to impress onlookers. Now the focal point of the Dolphins offense, Henne is the No. 10 fantasy quarterback over the past three weeks with 335+ yards in Weeks 13 and 15. With the Texans shutting down opposing running games this season, Henne will have to carry the offense again this week. He's a high-end QB2 in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Matt Moore, Panthers – Coming off a career game with 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, Moore is putting himself in the picture for next year's starting job in Carolina.
Jake Delhomme is an albatross going into the offseason, and the Panthers' No. 1 draft pick now belongs to the Niners. For this week, Moore draws a Giants pass defense that had been reeling before dismantling the Redskins Monday night. Moore is only an option in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Josh Freeman, Bucaneers – We suggested Freeman as a matchup play likely to surpass 17 fantasy points at Seattle last week, and he obliged with 18.4 points. The No. 21 fantasy quarterback over the past five weeks, Freeman can't be trusted in standard league championships even in a favorable matchup at New Orleans Sunday. He remains an option in two-quarterback leagues, however.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Drew Stanton, Lions –
Daunte Culpepper couldn't lead the offense to a score in his last two starts, so the Lions have nothing to lose in turning to their former second-rounder while
Matthew Stafford remains out. Stanton is a subpar passer at the NFL level, but he did add a second-half spark with his legs last week. The 49ers allow the 18th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, making Stanton only a desperation option in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Long-Term Fliers Brian Brohm - The former Packers draft bust may get a shot at Atlanta this week, but redrafters should stay far away. Deep Dynasty leaguers can pick him up as a stash-and-pray.
Curtis Painter - Painter isn't for the faint of heart. The rookie will likely play all but one series in Week 17, but there's no telling what kind of production you'll get out of him at Buffalo that week.
Keeper League Specials Kevin Kolb -
Michael Vick is the Philly quarterback most likely to be moved, but stranger things have happened. Kolb flashed in spot starts this season and should be owned in all Dynasty leagues.
Chad Pennington - His arm may be shot and he may opt for retirement, but the free agent-to-be is worth a roster spot in deep Dynasty leagues.
Cut Bait Jay Cutler - Can't be trusted to make it through the game without getting pulled.
Brady Quinn - Can't be trusted to break 100 yards even in a favorable matchup. Now done for the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Can't be trusted to break 100 yards or make it through the game without getting pulled.
TIGHT ENDSBo Scaife, Titans – While he's no threat for a monster game, Scaife has been incredibly consistent since
Vince Young took over for
Kerry Collins. Scaife has at least four catches for 38+ yards in each of the past five weeks as the No. 12 fantasy option over that period. The Chargers, who surrendered an anomalous seven catches for 82 yards against
John Paul Foschi last week, come to Tennessee in Week 16. The matchup is right.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
David Thomas, Saints – Check
Jeremy Shockey's injury report later this week. Highlighted by last week's eight catches for 77 yards, Thomas has outproduced the veteran over the past six weeks. He's only a fantasy option, though, if Shockey is clearly hobbled this week. Dynasty leaguers take note: the speedy Thomas has higher upside than Shockey going forward.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues and Dynasty leagues
Todd Heap, Ravens – As
Jermichael Finley showed last week, the Steelers can be exploited by tight ends. Heap will be a risky fantasy play, but it's worth noting that he's the No. 7 fantasy option over the past three weeks with five receptions and 50+ yards in Week 13 and Week 15. Use him only in desperation.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Keeper League Specials Tony Scheffler, Broncos – Wasted in Josh McDaniels' offense, Scheffler is set to exit as a free agent this offseason.
Jared Cook, Titans – Scaife is due to hit free agency this offseason, possibly opening up the starting job for the freakishly athletic Cook.
Gary Barnidge, Panthers – I'm still trying to figure out his lack of playing time. A speedy tight end with soft hands, Barnidge has been the Panthers' second-best option in the receiving game all season. He must be a rotten blocker.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS49ers - An always attractive matchup against the Lions could be even juicier if
Drew Stanton makes his first NFL start. Stanton's scrambling ability gives Detroit a shot in the arm after two weeks of a feckless
Daunte Culpepper, but he's nowhere close to NFL caliber as a passer.
Recommendation: Worth picking up as a matchup play
Cardinals - Home teams are always better bets for fantasy points, and the Cardinals return to University of Phoenix Stadium to host
Keith Null and the Rams.
Recommendation: Worth picking up as a matchup play
Falcons - As of press time, it appears that
Brian Brohm has a chance to start for the Bills this week. If he's anything like the Brohm that showed up in preseason action for the Packers the past two seasons, even the spineless Falcons defense is an elite fantasy play.
Recommendation: Worth picking up as a matchup play
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