Matchups: Can't Stop the Pack

As explained in Tuesday's Pancake Blocks breakdown of Thursday night's opener, the objective of this column is to appeal to readers willing to consider, more deeply, those factors that may or may not cause fantasy players to have favorable or unfavorable matchups. This article is for the fantasy leaguer looking to gain an extra edge.

16-plus hours per week go into the formulation of the Matchups breakdown. I place an emphasis on statistics, re-watching of games, tendencies, injuries, and roster turnover. This year, I've enlisted assistance from the analysis-based website Profootballfocus.com, which presents in-depth charting data for each player in the league, offensive and defensive.

The column received consistently positive feedback last season, and my goal is to take it to another level this year. For questions, arguments, and suggestions, contact me on my Twitter account, @evansilva.

1:00PM ET Games

Denver @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville's passing game takes the field against one of the best secondaries in football. The Broncos ranked third in pass defense last year, and return all four starters. Historically, David Garrard is a better home than away quarterback, but he's not on the QB1 radar. ... The year-ending loss of Elvis Dumervil puts much more pressure on Denver's DBs, however, and opponents will be able to exploit the heavily downgraded pass rush by going deep. Mike Sims-Walker is the Jags' lone vertical receiver. Don't expect a ton of catches, but 80-plus yards is doable. He's a strong WR2.

New starting flanker Mike Thomas will be used underneath, sliding into the slot when Jarett Dillard enters for three-receiver sets. Thomas, who averaged 9.5 yards per catch as a rookie, averaged 9.1 this preseason. He might catch 5-6 balls, but won't be a great bet to top 50 yards. ... Maurice Jones-Drew's knee injury is concerning, as is the demotion of top run-blocking lineman Vince Manuwai in favor of Justin Smiley. But you can't sit MJD against Denver. The Broncos had the worst run defense in the league during the preseason. ... Marcedes Lewis had a nice training camp, but did little in exhibition games. He's a block-first tight end until proven otherwise.

Eddie Royal was Denver's best receiver last preseason, only to disappear as a sideline-running decoy in the real games. Jabar Gaffney has taken hold of the No. 1 receiver job, at least until Demaryius Thomas (foot) is healthy. Gaffney poured six catches for 98 yards on Detroit in the second preseason game. Don't expect big plays, but he's a worthwhile WR3 in PPR leagues. ... Jacksonville's secondary will be among the NFL's worst this year, and red-hot Kyle Orton should capitalize as a high-end QB2. The Jags are starting former draft bust Anthony Smith and special teamer Sean Considine at safety. The nickel back is practice squad-type William Middleton.

The word in Denver is that Knowshon Moreno will be "eased in" after a camp-long hamstring strain. It's the best move for the Broncos. Correll Buckhalter, more productive on a per-touch basis last year, is 100 percent and looked spry on a 15-yard swing pass in the preseason finale. Moreno and Buckhalter may make each other weak fantasy plays early in the season, even in favorable matchups. ... You know not to start Denver tight ends. Shoot, can you even name one?

Oakland @ Tennessee

Oakland has remade its defense, targeting a pressure-heavy design especially at linebacker. They figure to remain vulnerable on the ground, however, as run support has never been a strong suit for OLBs Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Chris Johnson will explode after a quiet preseason. ... Jeff Fisher threatened last week to deactivate Kenny Britt for a multitude of mental errors and drops in exhibition action. Britt was unable to pass Justin Gage on the depth chart in August, so keep him saddled to the end of your bench. Lacking upside, Gage belongs there too.

Nate Washington is a sneaky WR3. He'll square off with a Raiders secondary that flip-flopped starting corners within the last week, promoting Stanford Routt over incumbent Chris Johnson. Both will play, but Routt has never come close to his potential, and Johnson was burned for 120 yards on four completions against Seattle in the preseason finale. If someone outside of CJ2K is going to have a big game for Tennessee, it'll be their lone probable every-down wideout.

The Raiders won't tip their hand as to Michael Bush's (thumb) status, but the writing on the wall says to avoid Oakland's backfield regardless. Only Minnesota was better than the Titans against the run in the preseason, and Darren McFadden still hasn't proven to be more than a third-down back. Take a wait-and-see approach. ... Zach Miller is a serious candidate to lead all tight ends in targets this season, especially if the running game doesn't get on track. He's a must-start.

Last year's Oakland passing game was a wasteland beyond Miller, but that's changed. With Chaz Schilens out indefinitely, Louis Murphy deservedly becomes a full-time player, and won't struggle to best bust-in-the-making Darrius Heyward-Bey for "No. 1 receiver" status. Murphy may see lots of Cortland Finnegan in coverage, but Finnegan's been a shell of himself since returning from a lengthy groin injury, getting torn apart by the Saints' second-team offense in the preseason finale. ... Jason Campbell is a fine QB2, but his protection will stink. He's not a fantasy starter.

Cincinnati @ New England

Patriots coach Bill Belichick is one of our generation's greatest defensive minds, but what's he to do without any players? The Pats' top defensive end (Ty Warren) and corner (Leigh Bodden) are both out for the year, and there are no pass rushers to speak of beyond Tully Banta-Cain, many of whose 9.5 sacks last season were fluky. Barring true magic from Belichick, New England's defense will be a favorable matchup for opposing skill players all year. Cedric Benson looked as powerful and quick as ever in the preseason, and will get the ball rolling on Sunday afternoon.

Debate rages on at Rotoworld as to Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver. I side with Terrell Owens, who caught 12 preseason passes for 143 yards compared to Chad Ochocinco's seven for 74. Ocho admitted publicly that T.O. is the new No. 1, and the stats support it. Owens hasn't been a No. 2 since the '90s with Jerry Rice. ... The Bengals appear to have hit on rookies Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, but they'll probably help Carson Palmer more than fantasy teams. Palmer does have enough weapons at his disposal to qualify as a high-end QB2. He lacks QB1 talent.

If there is a positive outcome from New England's defensive losses -- in fantasy terms -- it's that Tom Brady will wing it early and often. The beneficiaries will be Brady as a matchup-proof starter, Randy Moss in a contract year, and Wes Welker, who may have been on an early-season snap count had Julian Edelman survived camp healthy. Edelman (ankle) didn't, and is questionable for the opener. ... In the same vein as Cincinnati's draft picks, Pats TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez look like keepers after big preseasons. They just won't be reliable fantasy players.

The Pats didn't have a running back finish better than 29th in fantasy points last season, and that may not change. Not only has the line lost top run blocker Logan Mankins to a holdout, RT Nick Kaczur is out indefinitely after August back surgery. Fred Taylor is entrenched as the starter, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk are second-teamers, and Laurence Maroney appears to be No. 3 (if he's even active on game days). Cincy ranked seventh in the league in run defense last year.

As explained in Tuesday's Pancake Blocks breakdown of Thursday night's opener, the objective of this column is to appeal to readers willing to consider, more deeply, those factors that may or may not cause fantasy players to have favorable or unfavorable matchups. This article is for the fantasy leaguer looking to gain an extra edge.

16-plus hours per week go into the formulation of the Matchups breakdown. I place an emphasis on statistics, re-watching of games, tendencies, injuries, and roster turnover. This year, I've enlisted assistance from the analysis-based website Profootballfocus.com, which presents in-depth charting data for each player in the league, offensive and defensive.

The column received consistently positive feedback last season, and my goal is to take it to another level this year. For questions, arguments, and suggestions, contact me on my Twitter account, @evansilva.

1:00PM ET Games

Denver @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville's passing game takes the field against one of the best secondaries in football. The Broncos ranked third in pass defense last year, and return all four starters. Historically, David Garrard is a better home than away quarterback, but he's not on the QB1 radar. ... The year-ending loss of Elvis Dumervil puts much more pressure on Denver's DBs, however, and opponents will be able to exploit the heavily downgraded pass rush by going deep. Mike Sims-Walker is the Jags' lone vertical receiver. Don't expect a ton of catches, but 80-plus yards is doable. He's a strong WR2.

New starting flanker Mike Thomas will be used underneath, sliding into the slot when Jarett Dillard enters for three-receiver sets. Thomas, who averaged 9.5 yards per catch as a rookie, averaged 9.1 this preseason. He might catch 5-6 balls, but won't be a great bet to top 50 yards. ... Maurice Jones-Drew's knee injury is concerning, as is the demotion of top run-blocking lineman Vince Manuwai in favor of Justin Smiley. But you can't sit MJD against Denver. The Broncos had the worst run defense in the league during the preseason. ... Marcedes Lewis had a nice training camp, but did little in exhibition games. He's a block-first tight end until proven otherwise.

Eddie Royal was Denver's best receiver last preseason, only to disappear as a sideline-running decoy in the real games. Jabar Gaffney has taken hold of the No. 1 receiver job, at least until Demaryius Thomas (foot) is healthy. Gaffney poured six catches for 98 yards on Detroit in the second preseason game. Don't expect big plays, but he's a worthwhile WR3 in PPR leagues. ... Jacksonville's secondary will be among the NFL's worst this year, and red-hot Kyle Orton should capitalize as a high-end QB2. The Jags are starting former draft bust Anthony Smith and special teamer Sean Considine at safety. The nickel back is practice squad-type William Middleton.

The word in Denver is that Knowshon Moreno will be "eased in" after a camp-long hamstring strain. It's the best move for the Broncos. Correll Buckhalter, more productive on a per-touch basis last year, is 100 percent and looked spry on a 15-yard swing pass in the preseason finale. Moreno and Buckhalter may make each other weak fantasy plays early in the season, even in favorable matchups. ... You know not to start Denver tight ends. Shoot, can you even name one?

Oakland @ Tennessee

Oakland has remade its defense, targeting a pressure-heavy design especially at linebacker. They figure to remain vulnerable on the ground, however, as run support has never been a strong suit for OLBs Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Chris Johnson will explode after a quiet preseason. ... Jeff Fisher threatened last week to deactivate Kenny Britt for a multitude of mental errors and drops in exhibition action. Britt was unable to pass Justin Gage on the depth chart in August, so keep him saddled to the end of your bench. Lacking upside, Gage belongs there too.

Nate Washington is a sneaky WR3. He'll square off with a Raiders secondary that flip-flopped starting corners within the last week, promoting Stanford Routt over incumbent Chris Johnson. Both will play, but Routt has never come close to his potential, and Johnson was burned for 120 yards on four completions against Seattle in the preseason finale. If someone outside of CJ2K is going to have a big game for Tennessee, it'll be their lone probable every-down wideout.

The Raiders won't tip their hand as to Michael Bush's (thumb) status, but the writing on the wall says to avoid Oakland's backfield regardless. Only Minnesota was better than the Titans against the run in the preseason, and Darren McFadden still hasn't proven to be more than a third-down back. Take a wait-and-see approach. ... Zach Miller is a serious candidate to lead all tight ends in targets this season, especially if the running game doesn't get on track. He's a must-start.

Last year's Oakland passing game was a wasteland beyond Miller, but that's changed. With Chaz Schilens out indefinitely, Louis Murphy deservedly becomes a full-time player, and won't struggle to best bust-in-the-making Darrius Heyward-Bey for "No. 1 receiver" status. Murphy may see lots of Cortland Finnegan in coverage, but Finnegan's been a shell of himself since returning from a lengthy groin injury, getting torn apart by the Saints' second-team offense in the preseason finale. ... Jason Campbell is a fine QB2, but his protection will stink. He's not a fantasy starter.

Cincinnati @ New England

Patriots coach Bill Belichick is one of our generation's greatest defensive minds, but what's he to do without any players? The Pats' top defensive end (Ty Warren) and corner (Leigh Bodden) are both out for the year, and there are no pass rushers to speak of beyond Tully Banta-Cain, many of whose 9.5 sacks last season were fluky. Barring true magic from Belichick, New England's defense will be a favorable matchup for opposing skill players all year. Cedric Benson looked as powerful and quick as ever in the preseason, and will get the ball rolling on Sunday afternoon.

Debate rages on at Rotoworld as to Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver. I side with Terrell Owens, who caught 12 preseason passes for 143 yards compared to Chad Ochocinco's seven for 74. Ocho admitted publicly that T.O. is the new No. 1, and the stats support it. Owens hasn't been a No. 2 since the '90s with Jerry Rice. ... The Bengals appear to have hit on rookies Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, but they'll probably help Carson Palmer more than fantasy teams. Palmer does have enough weapons at his disposal to qualify as a high-end QB2. He lacks QB1 talent.

If there is a positive outcome from New England's defensive losses -- in fantasy terms -- it's that Tom Brady will wing it early and often. The beneficiaries will be Brady as a matchup-proof starter, Randy Moss in a contract year, and Wes Welker, who may have been on an early-season snap count had Julian Edelman survived camp healthy. Edelman (ankle) didn't, and is questionable for the opener. ... In the same vein as Cincinnati's draft picks, Pats TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez look like keepers after big preseasons. They just won't be reliable fantasy players.

The Pats didn't have a running back finish better than 29th in fantasy points last season, and that may not change. Not only has the line lost top run blocker Logan Mankins to a holdout, RT Nick Kaczur is out indefinitely after August back surgery. Fred Taylor is entrenched as the starter, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk are second-teamers, and Laurence Maroney appears to be No. 3 (if he's even active on game days). Cincy ranked seventh in the league in run defense last year.



Cleveland @ Tampa Bay

Non-Bucs and Browns fans watching this ugly matchup will be focused on Bucs rookie WR Mike Williams. A camp sensation, the big-play threat carried the torch for a Tampa offense that was otherwise brutal in preseason. Williams' inability to practice with his young QB for two weeks due to Josh Freeman's thumb injury, however, makes him an undesirable play, and a talented Browns secondary won't help. Kellen Winslow and trusty Sammie Stroughter are just as good bets for targets. Winslow, in particular, draws a favorable assignment against rookie safety T.J. Ward.

Cadillac Williams generated a surprising amount of fantasy buzz this summer, mostly because he's got so little competition for carries. With the release of Derrick Ward, 5-foot-9, 185-pound Kareem Huggins is second on the depth chart. Feel free to use Williams in favorable matchups (like this one), because he'll be a consistent threat for 20 carries. But after torn patellar tendons in both knees, Cadillac's burst is long gone. He'll be a great sell-high candidate if he starts hot.

Jerome Harrison keeps catching breaks. First, it was Montario Hardesty's camp-long knee injury. Then, Hardesty tore his ACL. With the every-down back job all his and a promising line in front of him, Harrison qualifies as an every-week RB2 ... for two weeks, at least. He faces Tampa Bay (32nd in '09 run defense) this week and Kansas City (31st) next Sunday before consecutive matchups with Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. Sell Harrison high before Week 3.

Jake Delhomme surprised even himself with a 79.2 preseason completion rate, chipping in two scores and no interceptions on 48 attempts. You can't start Delhomme in a standard league, but it does bode well for top wideout Mohamed Massaquoi. He already got a big matchup boost with Bucs shutdown CB Aqib Talib suspended for the opener, and Massaquoi can get vertical similar to Delhomme's old buddy, Steve Smith. ... Avoid Joshua Cribbs unless you're in a return-yardage league. He should get 6-8 offensive touches, but Brian Robiskie beat him out for the starting job.

Indianapolis @ Houston

We've come to expect great things from Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The newest addition to Houston's version of The Big Three is Arian Foster. Foster totaled 200 preseason yards and two scores on 34 touches (5.9 average), and has next to no competition for carries with Steve Slaton (turf toe) on the mend and Derrick Ward still learning the offense. He's a borderline RB1 against Indy's annually soft run defense. ... With coach Gary Kubiak saying Owen Daniels (knee) isn't ready for more than 25 snaps, you'll have to bench the tight end until he's a full-time player.

A far more dangerous player than Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones will be a better weekly play than the "starter" all season. Jones' usage increases dramatically as a staple of Houston's three-receiver sets, which will be employed more than ever, especially with Daniels "eased" back in. Playing far fewer snaps than he will this season, Jones went for 67 yards in one of last year's games against the Colts, and scored a touchdown in the other. He's a WR3 start with upside.

Reggie Wayne has lost nothing entering his age-32 season. In the third preseason game, he reconfirmed that the Wayne-Manning inside slant remains indefensible, beating Packers CB Tramon Williams for a 10-yard TD on the dominant route. Expect big years from both Wayne and Peyton Manning. ... The same goes for Dallas Clark. We slightly prefer Jermichael Finley and Antonio Gates' upsides, but it would be an upset if Clark finished outside of the top-three fantasy tight ends. Clark combined for 23 catches in two games against Houston last year. For real.

The light has yet to flip on for Donald Brown, who had an ugly 29 yards on 16 preseason touches. He's not remotely on the radar as a flex play. Joseph Addai is safely a 20 touch-per-game threat; use him every week. ... Perhaps no defense in the NFL improved as much as Houston's down the stretch of last season, and their secondary projects to be rock solid. Pierre Garcon is a mid-range WR3, but I'd still be concerned about Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez rotating in the slot.

Detroit @ Chicago

An awful preseason was worrisome, but Jay Cutler will start hot. Already the league's weakest secondary, Detroit didn't play a single preseason game with its four starting DBs on the field together. The Lions start Falcons and Rams castoffs (Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade) at corner, undrafted rookie Aaron Berry in the nickel, and bomb-magnet C.C. Brown at strong safety. Cutler is a must-start, and his confidence should be renewed heading to Week 2. ... Greg Olsen had four preseason catches and none in the third game, when starters play the most. Keep him benched.

Along with Cutler, Johnny Knox has to be in lineups. You probably drafted him late, but he's going to lead Chicago in targets every week. Wait and see on Flying Devins Hester and Aromashodu. Until proven otherwise, there's only one sure-fire fantasy starter at receiver in Chicago. ... Coming off a rejuvenated preseason, Matt Forte squares off with a Lions front four that's vastly improved. But it doesn't look like MLB DeAndre Levy (groin) is going to play. Expect a touchdown and 100 total yards.

Matthew Stafford's ball security remained an issue this preseason (two picks, one fumble), but he showed improved accuracy (71.1 percent completions), without toning down his aggressiveness. He's a boom-or-bust QB2, regardless of matchups. ... The higher completion rate does bode well for Calvin Johnson, who routinely destroys the Bears' Cover 2. Megatron's lines in his last three games against Chicago: 8-94-1, 8-133, 6-86-1. ... Avoid Nate Burleson, who was quiet in the preseason with 59 yards in four appearances. He may prove a relative afterthought in the offense.

Explosive almost beyond compare in preseason action, Jahvid Best averaged 8.3 yards per touch this August. The failure of Kevin Smith to even convincingly beat out Maurice Morris for No. 2 back work ensures that Best will be Detroit's feature runner. With 18-20 touches per week a near-given for the rookie, he'll be a mainstay in your starting lineup. ... Tony Scheffler has the look of a sleeper tight end, though it's a week to watch, not invest in the under-the-radar vertical threat.

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh hasn't finished worse than third in rush defense since 2003, and returns its front seven intact, in addition to a healthy Troy Polamalu. Michael Turner remains a good bet to score, but Atlanta will have to pass to move the ball consistently. ... The stars have aligned for Roddy White. Michael Jenkins (shoulder) is out, clearing the way for White to see double-digit targets against a Steelers secondary that still has big question marks at cornerback. Bryant McFadden (pectoral) missed much of camp, William Gay isn't an answer, and Ike Taylor is a long bomb waiting to happen.

Jenkins' absence leaves the underneath game to Tony Gonzalez. Though the healthy return of slot man Harry Douglas may cut into Gonzo's production when all's said and done, the ageless tight end should be heavily targeted at Pittsburgh. Jenkins fill-in Brian Finneran will spend most of the day blocking. ... Polamalu's return helps, but let's not forget that the Steelers' pass defense was mediocre at best last season. If Turner struggles, Matt Ryan will be forced to wing it. Expect 30 pass attempts, 240 or so yards, and a pair of touchdowns from the underrated third-year QB.

With Rashard Mendenhall running more decisively than ever, Pittsburgh led the NFL in preseason rushing. The line can't pass protect a lick, but it opens lanes. The front five's task becomes even easier with Falcons top DT Jonathan Babineaux out on suspension. Look for 30 touches for Mendenhall as a prime RB1. Coordinator Bruce Arians confirmed Thursday that Mendenhall will get goal-line carries. ... Dennis Dixon gets the nod at quarterback, but won't be on a long leash. While he's worth a look in two-QB leagues because of his rushing potential, the Steelers won't want him trying more than 25 passes after a shaky preseason.

The Steelers will take a run-first approach, so if the downgrade to Dixon from Ben Roethlisberger wasn't enough for you to bench Heath Miller, the fact that he'll be on the line blocking seals it. ... Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are still hard to sit. Wallace was the best receiver in Pittsburgh's preseason, and Ward will be Dixon's safety net with Miller helping Max Starks and Flozell Adams. Wallace is only a WR3, but his big-play ability offers plenty of upside. The Falcons are also weak at corner behind Dunta Robinson, with undersized Chris Owens and Brent Grimes competing.



Miami @ Buffalo

New Bills coach Chan Gailey's design appears to be similar to his predecessor Paul Johnson's at Georgia Tech, using Gailey's recruits. The ground game will be heavily featured, attempting to set up occasional long balls. C.J. Spiller and some combo of Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are Jonathan Dwyer. Lee Evans is Demaryius Thomas. ... Either way, you'll want to start Spiller, who was announced as Buffalo's starting tailback on Wednesday. The matchup is difficult, but if Gailey has his way (and Buffalo doesn't fall too far behind early) Spiller will get the rock 20-plus times. He has the moves to elude Miami's stout front seven.

Jackson, playing through a fractured hand, and Lynch, coming off an ankle injury and five-carry, two-yard preseason, will take backseats to Spiller. They're not fantasy options until they earn legitimate roles. ... If Evans is Thomas and Spiller is Dwyer, Trent Edwards is Josh Nesbitt. If you don't know who Nesbitt is, I'll tell you this: He doesn't throw much. ... Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and TE Jonathan Stupar aren't appealing, but Evans is with the demotion of Dolphins CB Sean Smith and running mate Vontae Davis' groin injury. Evans is an underrated WR3 start in non-PPR.

Buffalo ranked 30th in run defense last year. Now a transitioning unit, it won't be much better. According to Pro Football Focus, Marcus Stroud is among the league's poorest linemen in run defense, and he's now been forced to play end in Buffalo's new 3-4. The nose tackle is project rookie Torrell Troup, taking the big step up from C-USA. Ronnie Brown is a recommended RB2, and Ricky Williams is a strong flex. ... Avoid Dolphins tight ends. Anthony Fasano ranked 26th in fantasy points at the position in 2009, and will likely be run blocking more often than not.

Even with Rookie of the Year runner-up Jairus Byrd (groin) questionable, the Bills field one of the game's most talented secondaries. Chad Henne looked worse than mediocre in the preseason, completing 47 percent of his passes for an awful 5.1 yards-per-attempt average. This won't be his breakout game. ... Brandon Marshall will remain a target monster in Miami. Fasano will be blocking, fellow wideout Brian Hartline had a lackluster camp, and Davone Bess isn't a playmaker.

Carolina @ NY Giants

The Giants are doing damage control after demoting Brandon Jacobs, but all their actions point to Ahmad Bradshaw taking over as the feature back. While Jacobs remains the favorite for goal-line work, he played just four snaps and went touch-less in the preseason finale, when the G-Men used their first-string offense more than any team in the league. The undersized Carolina front is minus weak-side 'backer Thomas Davis (knee) and lost Julius Peppers this spring, presenting a terrific matchup for Bradshaw as a strong RB2. Jacobs is a flex option only in TD-heavy leagues.

Carolina ranked fourth in the NFL in 2009 pass defense, and led the league this preseason. The Giants' game plan will be run heavy, making Eli Manning barely a QB1 option. Don't expect a high number of pass attempts, which will also be a drain on Kevin Boss. ... The Panthers play the pass well collectively, but don't have a true shutdown corner. As noted by Pro Football Focus, CBs Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall were both average (Marshall a bit better) in coverage last season. Carolina is also breaking in a new starting free safety in Sherrod Martin. Hakeem Nicks remains a quality WR2, and Steve Smith is, as always, a safe bet for six-plus catches.

The loss of mauling Panthers RT Jeff Otah (knee) is a run-blocking concern at first glance, but note that Carolina averaged 183 rushing yards a game in replacement Geoff Schwartz's three 2009 starts. New York's run defense will be improved, but DeAngelo Williams is a must-start, and Jonathan Stewart should get 13-15 touches as a flex play with upside. The Panthers have made no bones about it: They will run relentlessly with QB Matt Moore coming off a poor preseason.

Carolina WR Steve Smith enters the game with a chip on his shoulder, blaming Giants S Michael Johnson for the play that fractured his arm in Week 17 last year. An angry Smitty is as dangerous as any wideout in football, and the Giants are banged up in the back (CB Corey Webster - groin, CB Aaron Ross - plantar fasciitis, SS Kenny Phillips - knee). ... Dwayne Jarrett beat out rookie Brandon LaFell for No. 2 receiver duties in Panthers camp. Like Muhsin Muhammad before him, Jarrett will be a blocker first, spectator second. He's a pass catcher somewhere down the line.

4:15PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Mike Singletary wished he had it. Mike McCarthy does: An offense capable of exerting its will on defenses. For those who didn't watch the second half of last year's Packer season, Sunday will be Jermichael Finley's coming-out party. A 6'5" rocked-up receiver who plays like a fleet-of-foot 6'9" forward, Finley faces off with an Eagles defense annually among the NFL's worst in tight end coverage. Finley has replaced Donald Driver as Aaron Rodgers' favorite down-the-middle target.

While Finley dominates the seams, Greg Jennings will be featured over the top. The Eagles are willing to single-cover wideouts to execute their blitz schemes. Expect Asante Samuel and Joselio Hanson to line up on Driver, with RCB Ellis Hobbs attempting to contain LWR Jennings. A bomb or three is in the offing. ... Brandon Jackson's in-camp improvement so convinced the coaching staff his light has flipped on that they kept just two backs on the active roster. You can't sit Ryan Grant, but he'll be a great sell-high candidate if he starts hot. Jackson has earned more work.

Our hopes remain high, but Kevin Kolb's preseason left much to be desired, exhibiting happy feet in the pocket and shaky confidence. He'll have to throw plenty against a Green Bay defense that led the NFL in run stoppage a year ago, but there are better QB1 starts out there. ... As a fourth option in the passing game at best, Jeremy Maclin is setup to disappoint until Kolb's problems are corrected. DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek, going away, are the best bets for catches, yardage, and touchdowns. Maclin is also "competing" for targets with Jason Avant and LeSean McCoy.

As with Maclin, owners should be wary of considering McCoy a reliable RB2. The Eagles' interior line of Nick Cole, Jamaal Jackson, and Todd Herremans didn't begin practicing together until just this week, and McCoy already struggled to run inside the tackles with any decisiveness. McCoy is a must-play in PPR leagues, but Philadelphia will have a very hard time winning the trench battle against Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and Cullen Jenkins. He'll also lose goal-line carries to Mike Bell.

Arizona at St. Louis

Rejuvenated after offseason back surgery, Steven Jackson displayed improved power and burst in the preseason, and is ready for a full workload against an Arizona defense that looks shaky against the run. Gone are ILBs Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes (back, PUP), replaced by rookie Daryl Washington and journeyman Paris Lenon. With Sam Bradford looking like the real deal (21 of his last 28 for 257 yards, three TDs, and zero picks), S-Jax looks poised for a career-best year. As Pro Football Focus also notes, St. Louis' offensive line is much better than given credit for.

The Rams' top three receivers will likely shape up as follows: split end Laurent Robinson, slot man Danny Amendola, flanker Mark Clayton. If Bradford plays as he showed capable in preseason, a sleeper will emerge. Though they're all worth end-of-the-bench roster spots, deep threat Robinson is the probable favorite to lead St. Louis in receiving. None of the three is worth using against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and company, but Robinson is the best bet to accrue WR3 value.

Concern about his QB situation is warranted, but Larry Fitzgerald is likely to exceed expectations. He'll be Derek Anderson's first read on 75-plus percent of passing plays, and his monster "catch radius" will atone for D.A.'s wildness. Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are hurt most. Expect the secondary receivers' production to be about equal by season's end. Fitzgerald, fully healed from his knee sprain, is a high-end WR1 play on Sunday. St. Louis had the NFL's second-worst pass defense in preseason, and Fitz has a touchdown in each of his last three meetings with the team.

Beanie Wells' knee injury is said to be just a bruise, but the team expressed worry about his status after another missed practice Thursday. He'll be a must-start RB2 if he's active, but this is going to be a game-time decision. ... Cardinals starter Tim Hightower does remain the favorite for goal-line carries and passing-down work. He's a viable flex in PPR formats regardless of Wells' Sunday status. The Cards are likely to take a run-first approach, providing both backs with plenty of touches. If Wells is out, Hightower becomes a must-start. ... Though St. Louis is susceptible to the pass, Anderson is only worth a brief look in two-QB leagues. His post-2007 production is JaMarcus Russell-esque.



San Francisco @ Seattle

The San Francisco fantasy defense has week-winner written all over it. With Russell Okung out, Seattle will pick from street free agent Chester Pitts and inept undrafted tackle Tyler Polumbus to start on Matt Hasselbeck's blind side. Pitts had offseason microfracture surgery and didn't play a preseason snap. Polumbus was waived by the tackle-needy Broncos and Lions this summer. Avoid Hasselbeck, new starting split end Mike Williams, and dead-legged flanker Deion Branch. The 49ers ranked third in the NFL in sacks last year and will feast on the worst line in football.

Justin Forsett has been named Seattle's starting tailback, a designation he earned by outplaying the field down the stretch of 2009. But it's not the week to use him. Bolstered by the end of NT Aubrayo Franklin's holdout, the 49ers return a front seven that allowed the fewest yards per carry in the NFC last year. ... John Carlson might benefit from Seattle's inability to go deep due to pass-pro problems, but it's better to avoid this offense entirely. Carlson was invisible all preseason.

If one Seahawk did look good in August, it was LCB Marcus Trufant. Returning from an injury-ruined year, Seattle's top corner figures to be assigned to opposing No. 1 wideouts until the team sorts out a regular starter from Kelly Jennings and Walter Thurmond III. It's hard to say Trufant will be on Michael Crabtree all game, but it'd be silly if he wasn't. Blocking receiver Josh Morgan poses very little threat as a pass catcher. Crabtree is a fantasy starter, but expectations should probably be limited. The 49ers will likely rack up more rushing attempts than throws on Sunday.

Look for Vernon Davis to be Alex Smith's go-to target when the Niners go to pass, as Seahawks SLB Aaron Curry will be assigned to him. Davis is already a mismatch for linebackers, and Pro Football Focus graded Curry quite poorly in coverage last year. ... Frank Gore, as he will be most weeks, is the best fantasy bet on either side in this game. Fresh after being used sparingly in August, his two preseason carries went for gains of 49 and 9. Expect 25 touches on Sunday.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas @ Washington

No quarterback consistently dominates season openers like Tony Romo, who hasn't thrown for fewer than 320 yards in three Week 1s. His TD-to-INT ratio is 8:2, and his 12.2 YPA is insane. Mike Shanahan's alienation of top Skins defender Albert Haynesworth won't hurt. ... Despite a quiet August, safely insert Miles Austin and Jason Witten as fantasy starters. Washington's loss of FS Kareem Moore (knee) will press coverage liability Reed Doughty into more action on Witten. Austin is a 100-catch threat this season with Dallas likely to play musical chairs opposite him.

The transition from a 4-3 to 3-4 scheme hasn't been smooth in D.C., as no NFC team served up more preseason yards per carry. Marion Barber beat out Felix Jones for Dallas' starting tailback job, and is a rock-solid RB2 with two-touchdown potential. Jones is a mere change-of-pace back and kickoff returner. ... Dez Bryant is readjusting to the speed of the game after a camp-long high ankle sprain, but his return to health is bad news for Roy Williams. Once a good bet to at least finish third on the Cowboys in weekly targets, Williams is no longer usable even as a WR3.

Donovan McNabb (ankle) will start, but it'd be hard to use him as more than a QB2. He's not 100 percent, facing a defense that will give Washington's reconstructed line fits on blitzes, and has two players worth throwing to (Chris Cooley, Santana Moss). McNabb could flirt with QB1 value in favorable matchups. This isn't one. ... Cooley could still enjoy a big game. McNabb will likely have to check down more often than not so as to avoid DeMarcus Ware's pass rush, and Cooley was McNabb's favorite target in the preseason. Look for six catches and 70-plus yards.

While Joey Galloway is an obvious avoid, Moss will be McNabb's first read when he is able to find enough time for a five-step drop. Moved from split end to flanker this season, Moss will do more underneath dirty work. He doesn't appear to have elite upside considering the matchup, but is a plenty serviceable WR3. ... Owners so weak at running back that they have to rely on Clinton Portis as an RB2 or flex should consider anything they get a bonus. Portis' burst is long gone, and he barely contributes as a pass catcher. On a good fantasy team, Portis is an RB4.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore @ NY Jets

If the vaunted Jets pass defense (No. 1 overall in '09) and return of Darrelle Revis weren't enough to make Joe Flacco a weak fantasy start, the state of Baltimore's line is. RT Jared Gaither (back) is out, leaving the position in the dicey hands of Oniel Cousins or Tony Moll. Cousins was creamed by pass rushers in the preseason and is coming off a concussion. Moll wouldn't make many 53-man rosters. The odds of Baltimore posing any deep threat Monday night are poor. Revis might be rusty. Maybe. But are you gonna bet on it? Use Anquan Boldin at your own risk.

The Jets have a tough run defense. Ray Rice owners can look to the loss of stud run-defending OLB Calvin Pace as incentive to keep Rice in the lineup. Not to mention his game-breaking talent and versatility. ... We don't know if the Jets will use Revis to "shadow" opposing No. 1 receivers in his return from a camp-long holdout, and we don't even know if Revis is a full-time player yet. The best approach is to avoid Baltimore's passing offense entirely. New York's other DBs are far from slouches, and it's not like Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Todd Heap has much upside anyway.

This projects as perhaps the lowest scoring game of Week 1. The Jets' passing offense was the worst in the AFC this preseason, so you'll want to avoid Mark Sanchez and Jerricho Cotchery with little chance of a shootout. If there is a Jets passing-game member worth a look, it's deep threat Braylon Edwards. Edwards' hands are unreliable, but few receivers in the NFL separate as easily deep downfield. With Lardarius Webb (knee) set to be inactive and Josh Wilson slated for nickel duty only, Edwards will square off with special teamer Chris Carr in coverage for most of the night.

With LaDainian Tomlinson coming off an impressive preseason, the Jets will open the year with a running back committee. Tomlinson has simply earned the right to get the ball 10-14 times a game. LT will fade as the season wears on, but for now his presence makes Shonn Greene only a low-end RB2 gamble in tough matchups like this. ... Chris Wesseling favorite Dustin Keller is a real wildcard play in this game. He's been drafted only as a TE2, but there is talk that Keller could end up as one of Mark Sanchez's most heavily targeted receivers. He's not without TE1 talent.

San Diego @ Kansas City

We can't count on Todd "Mangini 2" Haley to do much logically, but the preseason did confirm that his best talent is on the ground. Thomas Jones, Jamaal Charles, and even fringe NFL player Jackie Battle had success behind the revamped front five, while Matt Cassel finished 60th among the 115 players who threw a preseason pass in rating (79.3). To upset the Chargers, the Chiefs will have to run early and often. Even if Charles doesn't start, he should get the ball enough (15-18 touches?) to be worth an RB2 play. Eventually, Jones will fade as Larry Johnson did last year.

However, new Chiefs playcaller Charlie Weis is from the pass-happy Belichick school. Dwayne Bowe, coming off a terrific camp, will be the clear go-to guy when Weis radioes in passing plays. The Chiefs' RWR after Chris Chambers' midseason addition last year, Bowe will likely square off mostly with Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer. Bears first-year starter Johnny Knox had his way with Jammer in the preseason, so it's not hard to imagine Bowe doing quite a bit of damage. He's a borderline WR2 start against San Diego, while Chambers will settle in as a WR4/5 this season.

If August's most impressive rookie wasn't Jahvid Best, it was definitely Ryan Mathews. Totally unafraid, the 12th overall pick exhibited outrageously quick feet, no hesitancy to run between the tackles, plenty of speed to reach the perimeter, and better-than-anticipated passing-game skills. As the Chargers should, you'll want to ride Mathews as long as possible. He's got a sensational matchup this week against a Chiefs defense that ranked 31st against the run last year and did nothing to upgrade in the offseason. Mathews will be the focal point of San Diego's 2010 offense.

While his pass attempts will be down due to an improved ground attack and his ability to go deep will be adversely impacted by pass protection issues and Vincent Jackson's holdout, Philip Rivers is an obvious must-start against the Chiefs. ... Due to Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill's loss, San Diego's scheme will change, with Antonio Gates featured over the middle and Malcom Floyd as the deep threat. Gates is setup for a monster year, and K.C. has never been able to contain him. ... Floyd will be inconsistent because of his role, but after Gates he's the best bet on the team for receiving yards. Naanee (0 drops in '09), however, could still out-produce Floyd in the catches column, assuming he continues to hold off Patrick Crayton. Naanee should.