Matchups: Here's Johnny

Seattle @ Chicago

The Soldier Field forecast calls for sunny skies and minimal wind. It's friendly passing weather, and Jay Cutler's matchup is even more kind. Seattle ranks 31st against the pass, forcing teams to rack up throws with the NFL's No. 2 run defense. Those rankings will move toward the mean as the year unfolds, but Cutler has the look of an elite play against a pass defense that surrenders 302 yards a game. In their pre-bye loss, rookie Sam Bradford touched up the Seahawks for 289 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Naturally, you'd expect Cutler to do even better. ... Deep threat Johnny Knox has been unsurprisingly quiet for two weeks, with the Giants' pass rush stymieing Cutler in Week 4 and weak-armed Todd Collins under center in Week 5. Along with Cutler, Knox should bounce back big. Chicago's split end projects to spend most of Sunday against Seahawks RCB Kelly Jennings, as opposed to LCB Marcus Trufant. Jennings is Seattle's weakest corner.

Though Matt Forte's matchup is tough for aforementioned reasons, it's impossible to sit a running back playing so well. He exploded for 188 total yards and two TDs last week against a previously top-five Panthers run defense (Forte and Chester Taylor dropped their rank to 27). Both of Forte's touchdowns (18, 68 yards) came on weak-side runs, where Seattle is especially light in the pants. Weak-side DE Chris Clemons is 240 pounds dripping wet, while weak-side DT Brandon Mebane is a pass rusher first and run stopper second. ... Owners still can't reasonably expect much from Greg Olsen, who's averaging 35.8 yards per game. ... Devin Hester, slated for a date with Trufant, has been even worse with 25.2 yards a contest. He also played just 19-of-64 snaps in Week 5.

Deion Branch's trade creates opportunity in Seattle, but the least affected player is Mike Williams. He'll see no increase in snaps, and was already leading Seattle wideouts in targets. Williams just does nothing with them, averaging 24.7 yards per game since a 64-yard opener that may go down as his most productive effort of the year. Big Mike's strength -- and it's debatable if he has one -- is run-after-catch ability. The Bears can easily neutralize this with sure-tackling RCB Charles Tillman. ... In a battle for WR5 value, Deon Butler gets the starting nod but will rotate with rookie Golden Tate. Tate has more big-play ability (supported by both early-season and college stats) and won't need as many snaps, targets, or catches to be a better bet for yards than Butler.

Already Seattle's target and reception leader, John Carlson could also be positively impacted. Eight of Branch's nine grabs came on passes thrown inside ten yards, where Carlson does much of his work. ... Indications out of Seattle are that Marshawn Lynch in store for a sizable workload in Seahawks debut, but it's advisable to wait a week to be sure. Seattle's run blocking is only slightly better than Buffalo's, and the Bears' No. 3 rush defense stifled DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for a combined 3.87 yards per touch in Week 5. Williams and Stewart are both more talented than Lynch, and Carolina's line is light years better than Seattle's. ... Justin Forsett immediately moves into a third-down role behind Lynch, and is droppable in non-PPR leagues.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Relative to last year, the Saints' offense is scuffling. Though they're fifth in the league in passing yards per game, New Orleans ranks 10th in offense and an awfully disappointing 31st in rushing. Pierre Thomas (ankle) and Reggie Bush's (knee) injuries have cost the Saints identity, but the Bucs could provide some cure. Drew Brees won't have to sweat pass rush from a Tampa team that ranks dead last in sacks, and the Bucs have thrived off turnovers, their nine INTs ranking second in the league. Brees only has seven picks in the Saints' last 12 games. ... On paper, New Orleans' running game has a picturesque matchup with a Bucs team that surrenders the most yards per carry in the NFC. Unfortunately, there's little clarity in the backfield if Thomas doesn't play. Chris Ivory is the best desperation start in the group, but got only 10 touches in Week 5.

Marques Colston got off the schneid with seven grabs for 97 yards against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Week 5. The Saints figure to be in the red zone far more often than they were at Arizona, which would make Colston an increasingly good bet for his season's first score. We'd call Aqib Talib's potential "shadow" coverage a concern, but Talib has been burned for a TD in each of the three games he's played. Terrell Owens roasted him for a 43-yard bomb down the left sideline last Sunday. At this point, Colston owners might want Talib covering their man. ... Robert Meachem had his best game of the year in Week 5 (4-57-1), while Devery Henderson (4-61) and Lance Moore (1-8) essentially canceled each other out. Until one of the three emerges as consistent -- as Meachem did down last season's stretch -- they're risk-reward WR3s. ... Jeremy Shockey has five touchdowns in his last 30 games. You should be able to do better in fantasy.

Rookie Mike Williams (foot) missed Thursday's practice after a "limited" Wednesday workout, and is questionable for Week 6. The Bucs' passing game gets nothing from its Nos. 2-4 receivers, so Williams' absence would be a major blow to Josh Freeman's bye-week start-ability. Easily pacing the Bucs in targets, Williams is a rock-solid WR3. If he doesn't play, Kellen Winslow would be the heavy favorite to dominate catches in Tampa. The last time the Saints faced a halfway decent tight end, Tony Gonzalez tore through their secondary for eight catches, 110 yards, and a score.

The Saints present a fairly friendly matchup for opposing ground games (No. 22 run defense, four rushing TDs allowed), but the Bucs employ a value-draining four-headed backfield monster. Coming off their bye last week, Earnest Graham led Tampa in rushing and scored on a third-quarter goal-line carry. (The short-yardage role was supposed be LeGarrette Blount's, according to Raheem Morris.) But Cadillac Williams led them in carries (11), while Blount (4-3) and Kareem Huggins (1-4) took backseats. For all we know, Blount could lead the team in carries this week with Huggins pacing the backfield in total yardage. It's an extremely unreliable fantasy situation.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

LeSean McCoy was unlimited by his broken rib in Week 5, handling his second biggest workload of the year (23 touches) and playing 83 percent of the snaps. Fantasy's No. 3 back has shown matchup-proof ability in his last two games, racking up 312 total yards and a score against the Skins and 49ers. Atlanta ranks eighth against the run, but McCoy is an every-week starter. ... The Eagles may rely especially heavily on McCoy this week with King Dunlap replacing LT Jason Peters (knee). An awkward-looking 6-foot-8, 310-pounder, Dunlap gave up sacks to Travis LaBoy, Justin Smith, and Manny Lawson in Week 5. It's scary to think how badly he'll be exposed by Falcons RE John Abraham. Expect a hand-off and check down-filled day for Kevin Kolb.

Of course, check downs can work in favor of Brent Celek, who's caught a TD from Kolb in back-to-back weeks. He's been Kolb's most oft-targeted pass catcher, with 16 on the year. ... The rest of Kolb's targets: DeSean Jackson - 14; McCoy - 14; Jeremy Maclin - 13; Jason Avant - 7. ... Despite Jackson's 24-yard Week 5 clunker, you can't sit his big-play ability. Kolb is trying to get D-Jax the ball, and they showed plenty of rapport last year. ... Maclin, on the other hand, isn't a great bet to repeat last week's 95-yard game. Kolb will have Abraham breathing down his backside, and Maclin typically lines up as the backside receiver. Dunta Robinson rarely moves from his RCB spot, so Maclin will also be covered by Atlanta's top corner for most of the day.

There were some whispers that Michael Turner didn't look as explosive as usual early on, and his 3.79 yards-per-carry average entering Week 5 did nothing to diminish the concern. A 19-carry, 140-yard gashing of the Browns should lay it to rest, however, and a matchup with the Eagles' No. 24 rush defense will allow Turner's YPC to continue to spike. Philly is also without NT Brodrick Bunkley (elbow), whose primary task is to keep blockers from reaching MLB Stewart Bradley so that Bradley can plug the run. Bunkley's replacement will be 2009 undrafted free agent Antonio Dixon. The Falcons can control this game on the ground, with Turner as the offensive focal point.

Eagles LCB Asante Samuel (concussion) is back, but No. 6 overall fantasy receiver Roddy White remains matchup proof. Across the league, only Terrell Owens has been targeted more this season. ... With blocking wideout Michael Jenkins (shoulder) finally returning, Falcons receivers behind White are completely hands-off in fantasy. But there's nothing better for a scuffling tight end than a successful running game, and Tony Gonzalez should stay in fantasy lineups. Though he's topped 41 yards just once this year, Gonzo now takes on an Eagles team that's allowed a tight end to find the end zone in back-to-back weeks (Chris Cooley, Vernon Davis). In addition to the touchdown, Davis had five catches for 104 yards against Philadelphia last Sunday night.

Kansas City @ Houston

Owners searching for a Jermichael Finley replacement need look no further than Tony Moeaki. Rookie tight ends often struggle to become every-down players due to blocking weaknesses, but Moeaki has bucked the trend, playing 57-of-59 snaps in Week 5. No team is more generous to Moeaki's position than Houston, which through five games has given up 42 catches for 471 yards and four TDs (9/95/1 weekly average) to tight ends -- including last week's game against the Giants' non-factor TE corps. ... Texans "defensive" coordinator Frank Bush doubled Steve Smith in said game and left oft-burned rookie CB Kareem Jackson on an island with Hakeem Nicks. Predictably, Nicks went off for 12 catches, 130 yards, and two scores. Will be Bush so kind to Dwayne Bowe? Maybe, but he'd probably drop the ball. Bowe has nine catches in four games.

The Chiefs smartly used their Week 4 bye to execute a changing of the guard at tailback. Jamaal Charles emerged as the lead dog in Week 5, receiving five carries on Kansas City's opening possession and 19 touches compared to Thomas Jones' eight for the game. Jones barely played in crunch time, handling the pigskin once in the fourth quarter of a close game against the Colts. Charles was targeted, caught, or carried the ball seven times over the same span. Deservedly the Chiefs' offensive centerpiece again, Charles should continue to capitalize against a Texans run defense that showed vulnerability to the Giants last week. Houston allowed Ahmad Bradshaw (at less than 100 percent) and Brandon Jacobs to rack up 130 total yards and a touchdown.

Unafraid of Joseph Addai, the Chiefs used constant nickel and dime looks to successfully slow Peyton Manning in Week 5. K.C. can't repeat the strategy against NFL leading rusher Arian Foster, but Matt Schaub's blind-side protection has been just as big a concern as his drop in pass attempts. Texans fill-in LT Rashad Butler's pass blocking has worsened weekly, and he yielded two sacks to Osi Umenyiora last Sunday. Butler now faces Defensive POY candidate Tamba Hali. The Chiefs have allowed four passing touchdowns in four games, and are giving up just 6.4 yards per throw. A healthy Andre Johnson is a must-start, but Schaub's breakout week may have to wait. ... Also avoid Texans RWR Kevin Walter, who projects to spend most of the day covered by Chiefs shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers. Walter has topped 35 yards once all year.

Jacoby Jones (calf) can't be used at less than 100 percent. ... The Chiefs took Dallas Clark out of last week's game (3-20), and the Texans use Owen Daniels in similar fashion. Daniels isn't an option until he puts something substantial in the box score. ... Foster's scoreless, 27-yard Week 5 was a killer, as he saw just one post-half carry due to a "banged-up" knee. Still, Foster practiced fully this week and has been too productive to sit, even against K.C.'s top-six run defense. Leaving six and seven in the box certainly made life easier for Addai and Mike Hart, but they did combine for 144 total yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs last Sunday. If Hali is whipping Butler on Schaub's backside as expected, the Texans will have no choice but to lean heavily on Foster.

Playcalling is about probability. Not certainty.

- Ron Jaworski, Monday Night Football Week 5

The above quote is just as applicable to fantasy football as it is for real-life offensive coordinators. Anquan Boldin entered Week 5 as a top-five receiver, but a run-heavy game plan and a date with Broncos shutdown cornerback Champ Bailey resulted in a one-catch, eight-yard day. Based on Boldin's Weeks 1-4 performance, it seemed certain that Baltimore's No. 1 receiver would turn in a productive effort. But Bailey's coverage sharply decreased the probability of another big game, and the Ravens' heavy reliance on Ray Rice (league-high 31 touches) all but canceled it out.

We can't know a team's plan entering a particular week, but can make an educated guess. To supplement the probability of separating fantasy studs from duds, we can also account for one-on-one matchups (e.g. the likelihood of Bailey covering Boldin), roles (e.g. Demaryius Thomas playing fourth-receiver snaps), defensive and offensive tendencies, and sheer talent (e.g. Kenny Britt > Kevin Walter) to formulate a reasonable approximation. Also factoring in -- but not necessarily counting on -- recent performance, this column attempts to help you estimate the probability of a player having a highly productive, mediocre, or disappointing fantasy performance.

1:00PM ET Games

Miami @ Green Bay

The efficacy of Green Bay's defense depends heavily on Clay Matthews. Prior to Matthews' third-quarter hamstring injury in Week 5, Washington's offense worked its way into Packers territory once and punted on a whopping 7-of-8 possessions. The Packers fell apart after the injury, as the Redskins went on a 13-0 run to win the game. Green Bay has next to no pass rush with Matthews out, so upgrade Dolphins skill players if he sits. (He's not expected to play.) ... The rested Fins return from their bye on a two-game losing streak with a struggling quarterback. With four picks in his last two outings, it's even been speculated that Chad Henne is on a short leash. Miami is 3-7 when Henne has 30-plus pass attempts, so coach Tony Sparano has indicated that he'll recommit to a run-first plan of attack. Henne is a weak QB2 against a Packers team serving up just one passing TD per game.

Averaging 11 yards per catch, slot man Davone Bess will take a major hit if the Fins' throwing dwindles. He doesn't score or make plays downfield. 2009 Defensive POY Charles Woodson also covers the slot when opponents go three wide, making Bess totally hands off for this one. ... On pace for 1,360 yards and 108 catches, Brandon Marshall remains an every-week WR1. "No. 1" wideouts have lit up the Pack in two straight games: Calvin Johnson - 6/86/2; Santana Moss - 7/118. ... Ronnie Brown is averaging 15 touches a week compared to Ricky Williams' 12. Ronnie has 4.86 yards per touch to Ricky's 4.70. Committees don't get more even. Brown is still the slightly better play, but Williams is worth flex consideration against a Green Bay defense that not only surrenders the sixth-highest yards-per-carry average in football (4.7), but will be without ILB Nick Barnett (wrist), probably run-stopping DE Ryan Pickett (ankle), and possibly Matthews.

The last time we heard of a coaching staff huddle to increase a player's involvement, Felix Jones went from fantasy afterthought to rock-solid RB2 in Dallas. The same thing happened in Green Bay this week, with Packers staff game-planning specifically to remake Greg Jennings their featured player. His targets were already destined to rise with Jermichael Finley (knee) out, and Donald Driver didn't earn similar treatment with four back-breaking Week 5 drops. Jennings has been running mostly fly patterns, but look for him on more slants and screens going forward. Aaron Rodgers (concussion) is on track to play, so Jennings should immediately capitalize on his burgeoning role. ... Andrew Quarless showed his underrated ability with 51 yards after Finley's Week 5 injury, but Donald Lee's (chest) return to practice makes Packers tight ends undesirable.

Rodgers is safe to plug into lineups. The Fins boast the NFL's No. 4 pass defense, but Rodgers is the No. 4 fantasy quarterback and an every-week starter. He's accounted for 11 touchdowns in five games. ... Behind Jennings, James Jones is a good bet to pick up quite a bit of the slack left behind by Finley. Like Finley, Jones can play outside and inside, and Rodgers loves throwing to him. Through five games, Jones has bested Driver, Jennings, and Finley in target-to-snap ratio, and Jones' playing time only projects to rise with not only Finley gone, but Green Bay increasing its spread offense usage. Consider Jones a more than viable bye-week WR3. ... The Packers wouldn't reinstall a concussed Rodgers if their plan was to feature the running game, so don't expect Brandon Jackson or John Kuhn to forge significant value. Throw out Jackson's fluky 71-yard run in Week 5 and he's averaging 3.35 yards per carry. The Dolphins' run defense also gets a big boost from the returns of DE Jared Odrick (leg) and ILB Channing Crowder (groin).

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

With Colt McCoy debuting at Pittsburgh, Browns skill players should be avoided like the plague in fantasy leagues. Peyton Hillis is included, despite his fast start. The No. 6 fantasy back through five weeks, Hillis squares off with a Steelers team that leads the NFL in run defense and permits a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. As if that wasn't enough, Hillis aggravated his quad strain early in the Browns' Week 5 loss, finished with his smallest workload since formally supplanting Jerome Harrison, and averaged his fewest yards per carry on the year. Owners should pray that Hillis' injury doesn't worsen on the historically quaggy Heinz Field playing surface, once deemed by Fred Taylor "a lawsuit pending." The Browns face New Orleans' No. 22 run defense in Week 7.

McCoy, truly a fringe NFL talent despite his big name, averaged 5.95 yards per attempt on 39 preseason throws, committed four turnovers, took six sacks, and failed to throw a touchdown pass against third-stringers and defenders who didn't make rosters. Fire up the Steelers' fantasy defense. ... Jake Delhomme couldn't move the pocket, and Seneca Wallace couldn't throw deep. McCoy possesses both injured quarterbacks' weaknesses. He'll probably complete a few passes to Ben Watson or Chansi Stuckey, but neither is a fantasy option. Nor is Mohamed Massaquoi.

The Steelers figure to dominate the time-of-possession battle, boding particularly well for Rashard Mendenhall. The Browns played the run well entering Week 5, but fell apart against the Falcons last Sunday. Atlanta ran for 165 yards, including Michael Turner's year-best 7.37 YPC average. On Turner's season-long 55-yard run in the second quarter, Atlanta cleared a canyon-sized hole in the middle of Cleveland's defense. On Turner's 22-yard burst in the fourth, the running back went untouched off-left tackle until being "guided" out of bounds by CB Eric Wright. Mendenhall, who ranks third in the league in rushing yards per game, has outplayed Turner so far this season.

Ben Roethlisberger will be rusty after a five-week layoff, and a run-heavy game plan to "ease" him in is possible. Cleveland's pass defense has been incredibly up and down, but is coming off a strong effort, holding Matt Ryan to a season-low 187 yards. Big Ben is still a borderline top-12 option, but this looks like a wait-and-see week if you have viable alternatives. He'll be a surefire starter eventually. ... Roethlisberger's aggressive style remains a huge plus for Mike Wallace right off the bat. Easily Pittsburgh's top deep threat, Wallace has combined three clunkers with one big game, twiddling his thumbs as the Steelers tied for the second fewest 20-plus yard completions in the first month. That's all going to change. ... Hines Ward also gets a bump, but like Big Ben, it's a week to watch Heath Miller, not start him. Miller hasn't topped five targets or 40 yards yet.

Detroit @ NY Giants

It's only a matter of time before Hakeem Nicks begins drawing double teams, but so far defenses have routinely left him singled up, with Steve Smith seeing safeties over the top. Fantasy owners need to capitalize while the iron is still hot. Last season, Nicks only played 57 percent of the Giants' snaps compared to then-starter Mario Manningham's 71 percent. This year, Nicks is at 81.7 to Mario's 54.6. More importantly, Nicks is hogging targets, with 50 on the year to lead the Giants. ... Smith relied on volume last year to post what probably will go down as his career-best season, finishing as the 11th overall fantasy receiver. He's 34th in 2010. Smith is definitely worth using as a WR3 against the Lions, but he's clearly been bypassed by Nicks in the pecking order.

Detroit got a lift in the pass defense rankings last week from a Rams offense that fell apart after the early-game loss of Mark Clayton, but the Lions are still 24th and were giving up two passing TDs per week prior to Sam Bradford's egg-laying. An incredibly streaky passer, Eli Manning is hot coming off a 297-yard, three-score performance. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling smartly consider Manning a top-five QB1 play. ... Continuing to play musical chairs at inside linebacker, the Lions rank 26th against the run and give up the third most yards per carry in football (only Oakland and Tampa Bay are more generous). Practicing fully again, Ahmad Bradshaw's ankle appears to be as healthy as it's been in weeks. Even goal-line vulture Brandon Jacobs is worth a look as a flex play in standard leagues. The red-hot G-Men shouldn't struggle to move the rock.

Whereas the Lions are defensive bottom feeders, the Giants give up the fewest passing yards per game and are No. 1 in total defense. Despite Shaun Hill's recent success, he's a better bet for a game like Week 3 against the Vikings (237 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) than Week 5 against the Rams (227 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). ... Calvin Johnson is a game-time decision. He's still in pain after falling hard on his right shoulder in the fourth quarter last week, unable to stretch for catches in practice. Megatron is a top-ten fantasy receiver and must-start if he plays, but we won't know for sure until noon ET Sunday. ... If Johnson does sit, Hill is hands-off. His three-receiver set would morph from Calvin-Nate Burleson-Bryant Johnson to Burleson-Bryant-Derrick Williams. Ugly.

Megatron's absence could make Burleson a sneaky WR3. Burleson showed he's recovered from his early-season high ankle sprain with a 4-56-1 line against St. Louis. He operated mostly out of the slot, running well after the catch. ... Should Johnson not play, stopping Jahvid Best would become the Giants' focus. But he'd likely also be the focal point for Detroit's plan of attack. New Meadowlands Stadium uses FieldTurf, on which Best has been noticeably more effective (6.58 yards per touch; 3.33 on grass). Best's workload has climbed in three straight weeks (9/17/22). His toe injury is no longer a concern. ... The Giants are one of the NFL's toughest teams on tight ends. Through five games, only Dallas Clark has topped 45 yards against them. They've given up one tight end touchdown all year. It's bad news for Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler.



Seattle @ Chicago

The Soldier Field forecast calls for sunny skies and minimal wind. It's friendly passing weather, and Jay Cutler's matchup is even more kind. Seattle ranks 31st against the pass, forcing teams to rack up throws with the NFL's No. 2 run defense. Those rankings will move toward the mean as the year unfolds, but Cutler has the look of an elite play against a pass defense that surrenders 302 yards a game. In their pre-bye loss, rookie Sam Bradford touched up the Seahawks for 289 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Naturally, you'd expect Cutler to do even better. ... Deep threat Johnny Knox has been unsurprisingly quiet for two weeks, with the Giants' pass rush stymieing Cutler in Week 4 and weak-armed Todd Collins under center in Week 5. Along with Cutler, Knox should bounce back big. Chicago's split end projects to spend most of Sunday against Seahawks RCB Kelly Jennings, as opposed to LCB Marcus Trufant. Jennings is Seattle's weakest corner.

Though Matt Forte's matchup is tough for aforementioned reasons, it's impossible to sit a running back playing so well. He exploded for 188 total yards and two TDs last week against a previously top-five Panthers run defense (Forte and Chester Taylor dropped their rank to 27). Both of Forte's touchdowns (18, 68 yards) came on weak-side runs, where Seattle is especially light in the pants. Weak-side DE Chris Clemons is 240 pounds dripping wet, while weak-side DT Brandon Mebane is a pass rusher first and run stopper second. ... Owners still can't reasonably expect much from Greg Olsen, who's averaging 35.8 yards per game. ... Devin Hester, slated for a date with Trufant, has been even worse with 25.2 yards a contest. He also played just 19-of-64 snaps in Week 5.

Deion Branch's trade creates opportunity in Seattle, but the least affected player is Mike Williams. He'll see no increase in snaps, and was already leading Seattle wideouts in targets. Williams just does nothing with them, averaging 24.7 yards per game since a 64-yard opener that may go down as his most productive effort of the year. Big Mike's strength -- and it's debatable if he has one -- is run-after-catch ability. The Bears can easily neutralize this with sure-tackling RCB Charles Tillman. ... In a battle for WR5 value, Deon Butler gets the starting nod but will rotate with rookie Golden Tate. Tate has more big-play ability (supported by both early-season and college stats) and won't need as many snaps, targets, or catches to be a better bet for yards than Butler.

Already Seattle's target and reception leader, John Carlson could also be positively impacted. Eight of Branch's nine grabs came on passes thrown inside ten yards, where Carlson does much of his work. ... Indications out of Seattle are that Marshawn Lynch in store for a sizable workload in Seahawks debut, but it's advisable to wait a week to be sure. Seattle's run blocking is only slightly better than Buffalo's, and the Bears' No. 3 rush defense stifled DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for a combined 3.87 yards per touch in Week 5. Williams and Stewart are both more talented than Lynch, and Carolina's line is light years better than Seattle's. ... Justin Forsett immediately moves into a third-down role behind Lynch, and is droppable in non-PPR leagues.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Relative to last year, the Saints' offense is scuffling. Though they're fifth in the league in passing yards per game, New Orleans ranks 10th in offense and an awfully disappointing 31st in rushing. Pierre Thomas (ankle) and Reggie Bush's (knee) injuries have cost the Saints identity, but the Bucs could provide some cure. Drew Brees won't have to sweat pass rush from a Tampa team that ranks dead last in sacks, and the Bucs have thrived off turnovers, their nine INTs ranking second in the league. Brees only has seven picks in the Saints' last 12 games. ... On paper, New Orleans' running game has a picturesque matchup with a Bucs team that surrenders the most yards per carry in the NFC. Unfortunately, there's little clarity in the backfield if Thomas doesn't play. Chris Ivory is the best desperation start in the group, but got only 10 touches in Week 5.

Marques Colston got off the schneid with seven grabs for 97 yards against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Week 5. The Saints figure to be in the red zone far more often than they were at Arizona, which would make Colston an increasingly good bet for his season's first score. We'd call Aqib Talib's potential "shadow" coverage a concern, but Talib has been burned for a TD in each of the three games he's played. Terrell Owens roasted him for a 43-yard bomb down the left sideline last Sunday. At this point, Colston owners might want Talib covering their man. ... Robert Meachem had his best game of the year in Week 5 (4-57-1), while Devery Henderson (4-61) and Lance Moore (1-8) essentially canceled each other out. Until one of the three emerges as consistent -- as Meachem did down last season's stretch -- they're risk-reward WR3s. ... Jeremy Shockey has five touchdowns in his last 30 games. You should be able to do better in fantasy.

Rookie Mike Williams (foot) missed Thursday's practice after a "limited" Wednesday workout, and is questionable for Week 6. The Bucs' passing game gets nothing from its Nos. 2-4 receivers, so Williams' absence would be a major blow to Josh Freeman's bye-week start-ability. Easily pacing the Bucs in targets, Williams is a rock-solid WR3. If he doesn't play, Kellen Winslow would be the heavy favorite to dominate catches in Tampa. The last time the Saints faced a halfway decent tight end, Tony Gonzalez tore through their secondary for eight catches, 110 yards, and a score.

The Saints present a fairly friendly matchup for opposing ground games (No. 22 run defense, four rushing TDs allowed), but the Bucs employ a value-draining four-headed backfield monster. Coming off their bye last week, Earnest Graham led Tampa in rushing and scored on a third-quarter goal-line carry. (The short-yardage role was supposed be LeGarrette Blount's, according to Raheem Morris.) But Cadillac Williams led them in carries (11), while Blount (4-3) and Kareem Huggins (1-4) took backseats. For all we know, Blount could lead the team in carries this week with Huggins pacing the backfield in total yardage. It's an extremely unreliable fantasy situation.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

LeSean McCoy was unlimited by his broken rib in Week 5, handling his second biggest workload of the year (23 touches) and playing 83 percent of the snaps. Fantasy's No. 3 back has shown matchup-proof ability in his last two games, racking up 312 total yards and a score against the Skins and 49ers. Atlanta ranks eighth against the run, but McCoy is an every-week starter. ... The Eagles may rely especially heavily on McCoy this week with King Dunlap replacing LT Jason Peters (knee). An awkward-looking 6-foot-8, 310-pounder, Dunlap gave up sacks to Travis LaBoy, Justin Smith, and Manny Lawson in Week 5. It's scary to think how badly he'll be exposed by Falcons RE John Abraham. Expect a hand-off and check down-filled day for Kevin Kolb.

Of course, check downs can work in favor of Brent Celek, who's caught a TD from Kolb in back-to-back weeks. He's been Kolb's most oft-targeted pass catcher, with 16 on the year. ... The rest of Kolb's targets: DeSean Jackson - 14; McCoy - 14; Jeremy Maclin - 13; Jason Avant - 7. ... Despite Jackson's 24-yard Week 5 clunker, you can't sit his big-play ability. Kolb is trying to get D-Jax the ball, and they showed plenty of rapport last year. ... Maclin, on the other hand, isn't a great bet to repeat last week's 95-yard game. Kolb will have Abraham breathing down his backside, and Maclin typically lines up as the backside receiver. Dunta Robinson rarely moves from his RCB spot, so Maclin will also be covered by Atlanta's top corner for most of the day.

There were some whispers that Michael Turner didn't look as explosive as usual early on, and his 3.79 yards-per-carry average entering Week 5 did nothing to diminish the concern. A 19-carry, 140-yard gashing of the Browns should lay it to rest, however, and a matchup with the Eagles' No. 24 rush defense will allow Turner's YPC to continue to spike. Philly is also without NT Brodrick Bunkley (elbow), whose primary task is to keep blockers from reaching MLB Stewart Bradley so that Bradley can plug the run. Bunkley's replacement will be 2009 undrafted free agent Antonio Dixon. The Falcons can control this game on the ground, with Turner as the offensive focal point.

Eagles LCB Asante Samuel (concussion) is back, but No. 6 overall fantasy receiver Roddy White remains matchup proof. Across the league, only Terrell Owens has been targeted more this season. ... With blocking wideout Michael Jenkins (shoulder) finally returning, Falcons receivers behind White are completely hands-off in fantasy. But there's nothing better for a scuffling tight end than a successful running game, and Tony Gonzalez should stay in fantasy lineups. Though he's topped 41 yards just once this year, Gonzo now takes on an Eagles team that's allowed a tight end to find the end zone in back-to-back weeks (Chris Cooley, Vernon Davis). In addition to the touchdown, Davis had five catches for 104 yards against Philadelphia last Sunday night.

Kansas City @ Houston

Owners searching for a Jermichael Finley replacement need look no further than Tony Moeaki. Rookie tight ends often struggle to become every-down players due to blocking weaknesses, but Moeaki has bucked the trend, playing 57-of-59 snaps in Week 5. No team is more generous to Moeaki's position than Houston, which through five games has given up 42 catches for 471 yards and four TDs (9/95/1 weekly average) to tight ends -- including last week's game against the Giants' non-factor TE corps. ... Texans "defensive" coordinator Frank Bush doubled Steve Smith in said game and left oft-burned rookie CB Kareem Jackson on an island with Hakeem Nicks. Predictably, Nicks went off for 12 catches, 130 yards, and two scores. Will be Bush so kind to Dwayne Bowe? Maybe, but he'd probably drop the ball. Bowe has nine catches in four games.

The Chiefs smartly used their Week 4 bye to execute a changing of the guard at tailback. Jamaal Charles emerged as the lead dog in Week 5, receiving five carries on Kansas City's opening possession and 19 touches compared to Thomas Jones' eight for the game. Jones barely played in crunch time, handling the pigskin once in the fourth quarter of a close game against the Colts. Charles was targeted, caught, or carried the ball seven times over the same span. Deservedly the Chiefs' offensive centerpiece again, Charles should continue to capitalize against a Texans run defense that showed vulnerability to the Giants last week. Houston allowed Ahmad Bradshaw (at less than 100 percent) and Brandon Jacobs to rack up 130 total yards and a touchdown.

Unafraid of Joseph Addai, the Chiefs used constant nickel and dime looks to successfully slow Peyton Manning in Week 5. K.C. can't repeat the strategy against NFL leading rusher Arian Foster, but Matt Schaub's blind-side protection has been just as big a concern as his drop in pass attempts. Texans fill-in LT Rashad Butler's pass blocking has worsened weekly, and he yielded two sacks to Osi Umenyiora last Sunday. Butler now faces Defensive POY candidate Tamba Hali. The Chiefs have allowed four passing touchdowns in four games, and are giving up just 6.4 yards per throw. A healthy Andre Johnson is a must-start, but Schaub's breakout week may have to wait. ... Also avoid Texans RWR Kevin Walter, who projects to spend most of the day covered by Chiefs shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers. Walter has topped 35 yards once all year.

Jacoby Jones (calf) can't be used at less than 100 percent. ... The Chiefs took Dallas Clark out of last week's game (3-20), and the Texans use Owen Daniels in similar fashion. Daniels isn't an option until he puts something substantial in the box score. ... Foster's scoreless, 27-yard Week 5 was a killer, as he saw just one post-half carry due to a "banged-up" knee. Still, Foster practiced fully this week and has been too productive to sit, even against K.C.'s top-six run defense. Leaving six and seven in the box certainly made life easier for Addai and Mike Hart, but they did combine for 144 total yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs last Sunday. If Hali is whipping Butler on Schaub's backside as expected, the Texans will have no choice but to lean heavily on Foster.



Baltimore @ New England

Rushing offenses capable of gashing defenses up the middle can literally impose their will on an opponent. And that's exactly what the Ravens did to Denver in Week 5. The Broncos bottled up Chris Johnson for 64 total yards the week before, but Baltimore saddled up Ray Rice and C Matt Birk and went to work. According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens generated 73 yards on 14 carries (5.2 YPC) on runs off Birk's back, while Rice led all running backs in touches (31) for the week. And that isn't even the best news. Rice supplanted Willis McGahee as the Ravens' goal-line specialist, scoring twice on one-yard runs. His scoring upside soaring, Rice now takes on a Patriots defense that ranks 20th against the run and allows 4.4 yards per carry -- tied for ninth most in the league. Hopefully, you've already bought Rice low. The arrow is pointing skyward.

Taken out of Week 5 by Champ Bailey and a Rice-centric game plan, Anquan Boldin should return with fury against an extremely vulnerable Patriots pass defense. The Pats rank 28th in the category, have let up nine passing touchdowns in four games, and are allowing quarterbacks to complete a league-high 69.1 percent of their throws. As of Thursday afternoon, Weather.com called Sunday the "best day to golf" in Foxboro over the next several days. Golfing weather is passing weather. Shake off last week and start Boldin as a WR1. ... The breakout so many expected from Joe Flacco will have to wait due to Baltimore's reliance on the ground attack, but Joe Cool won't have many better matchups. He's still a top-ten play. ... Todd Heap is averaging a scoreless 42 yards per game. Derrick Mason has one TD, but even fewer yards. Sit 'em.

The Pats will unveil their "horizontal," Randy Moss-less offense, and should certainly have enough success to make Tom Brady a worthwhile QB1. But with roles yet to be defined in a date with Baltimore's No. 2 pass defense, it's smart to sit back and watch youngsters Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski, as opposed to use them in fantasy. ... New England will stay pass heavy, but the ditching of a long-bomb passing game appears to be geared toward taking pressure off a bad defense. They can't stop offenses like they used to, so a ball-control approach will be Bill Belichick's remedy. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the feature back. Fred Taylor (toe) is not expected to play and Green-Ellis is averaging 16 carries per game in his last two, with a touchdown in each. Baltimore's run defense has shown leaks, so you could do worse at RB2.

It's widely expected that Wes Welker will assume the double coverage Moss once commanded, though slot receivers are more difficult to consistently double than wideouts. Welker's yards and TDs may be affected, but he'll remain a strong bet for 5-7 catches per game. Don't pull him out of your PPR lineup. ... Deion Branch and Tate appear to be competing for snaps. Consider them threats to cancel each other out in the box score until further notice. We just don't know enough about the offense yet. ... One thing we can say for sure: Aaron Hernandez was a major reason the Pats were so comfortable dealing Moss. A shorter but faster version of Jermichael Finley, the rookie is an every-down player. Already averaging nearly 65 yards per game, Hernandez will be a fantasy starter the rest of the way. Baltimore's linebackers don't cover well enough to contain him.

San Diego @ St. Louis

Vegas projects Bolts-Rams to be Week 6's highest scoring game. (Of course, a strong majority of the points is likely to come from San Diego.) In domed environs against a St. Louis defense that crumbled in Detroit last week, Philip Rivers, Malcom Floyd, and Antonio Gates are all elite plays. ... Gates leads the NFL in touchdowns (7). The Rams served up eight catches and a score to Lions tight ends in Week 5. ... Rivers has passed Peyton Manning as the top fantasy QB, and Kyle Orton as the league's passing yardage leader. You might want to play him. ... Rivers, Gates, and especially the deep threat Floyd all get upgrades from the return of left tackle Marcus McNeill, who makes his 2010 debut Sunday. Coming off a 213-yard breakout -- much of it against Nnamdi Asomugha -- Floyd's ability to go long will be further enhanced by Rivers' improving protection.

Coach Norv Turner vowed early this week to return Ryan Mathews' lead back role if the rookie practiced fully. Mathews, still struggling with an ankle sprain, did not practice Wednesday. In spite of the pledge, Turner would be foolish to not reinsert Mathews as the starter when he's averaging 6.35 yards per touch in his last two efforts, and the Chargers were just upset by Oakland with Mike Tolbert starting and averaging 0.9 yards per carry with a lost fumble. Rotoworld will update San Diego's backfield late Friday, but in order to win Turner needs to play his best players. ... The return of Vincent Jackson, ostensibly in Week 12, is a situation to track closely. Even with stubborn GM A.J. Smith at the helm, the Chargers would be crazy to not immediately reinsert him as a three-down wideout. He could be an impact player by the fantasy playoffs.

If the final three quarters of last week were any indication, the Rams' passing game will struggle mightily without No. 1 receiver Mark Clayton (torn patellar tendon). With Brandon Gibson dropping passes, Laurent Robinson unable to get open, and Danny Amendola lacking playmaking ability, Sam Bradford couldn't even find a late-game rhythm against the Lions' prevent defense. Bradford is barely a QB2 in a date with a Chargers defense that ranks third against the pass and gives up nothing downfield (only nine 20-plus yard completions allowed in five games). ... Amendola was a hot Week 6 waiver add, but he's really only a PPR option. The slot receiver averages 8.3 career yards per catch with one TD on 76 receptions. He offers little to no standard league upside.

If the Rams are to stay in this game, it'll be because of Steven Jackson. Off the Week 6 injury report, Jackson has resumed practicing fully and declared himself 100 percent recovered from his Week 3 groin injury. The Chargers are stout against the run (3.8 YPC allowed, No. 7 overall), but workloads like Jackson's are impossible to find. Outside of his injury-shortened Week 3, S-Jax is averaging 25 touches for 116 yards per game. ... Keep an eye on Michael Hoomanawanui, the rookie tight end who shined this preseason. He caught four passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns from Bradford in St. Louis' third exhibition game -- a win over the Patriots -- while playing mostly against New England first-teamers. Hoomanawanui is returning this week from a high ankle sprain.

4:05PM ET Games

NY Jets @ Denver

Regardless of Knowshon Moreno's (hamstring) status, it'll be another unproductive rushing day for Denver. Though Adrian Peterson (18-88) knocked the Jets' run defense rank down a few pegs in Week 5, the unit is still fourth in football and allows 3.3 yards per carry, with one rushing score against in five games. Routinely rag-dolled Broncos rookie C J.D. Walton gets one of his tougher tests yet against Jets mammoth NT Sione Pouha. Don't expect holes for Broncos backs, or anything resembling a feature runner if Moreno sits again. Denver's carry allotment, YPC, and touchdown totals since Week 2: Laurence Maroney - 29/1.93/0; Correll Buckhalter - 15/1.87/0.

The Broncos' offense has become easy to defend, at least in theory. Denver ranks 32nd in rushing offense and second with the pass. The blitz-happy Jets still figure to take chances, especially with CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) not expected to play. Confidently keep Kyle Orton going. The Broncos won't win the game, but in fantasy it's hard to beat 43 pass attempts and 347 yards a week. ... During Week 5, Brandon Lloyd overtook Austin Collie as the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football. Antonio Cromartie is tentatively expected to shadow Lloyd, but there's no guarantee that Rex Ryan pays the journeyman wideout such respect. He's hard to bench at this point. ... With Demaryius Thomas (neck, concussion) all but out of the mix, Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney don't have to sweat losing snaps to the mega-talented rookie. The Broncos will stay in a three-receiver set all game. Start 'em.

Santonio Holmes' three-catch, 41-yard Jets debut was disappointing, but it's not a sign of things to come. While Holmes and Mark Sanchez weren't quite on the same page, Holmes was targeted on a whopping nine passes in 36 snaps, compared to Braylon Edwards' 11 in 64 snaps and Jerricho Cotchery's 10 in 63. A deep threat, Holmes also projects to benefit from the Broncos' inability to generate pass rush. Denver has the second fewest sacks in football, and Jets LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson is playing lights out, not allowing Jared Allen a single QB pressure in Week 5. With Champ Bailey likely to guard Edwards (easily the Jets' most productive receiver thus far), a bust-loose game could be in the offing for Holmes. He's not a WR2 yet, but he's definitely a WR3.

Dustin Keller's down Week 5 should've been salvaged by his sixth touchdown of the year, but the tight end let Sanchez's red-zone pass slip through his usually sure hands. Keller still ranks second at his position in fantasy points. Use him with confidence against a Broncos defense that will be without tight end coverage ace Brian Dawkins (knee), and let the middling TE corps of Tennessee and Baltimore combine for 140 yards over the past two weeks. ... Currently the No. 10 fantasy running back, LaDainian Tomlinson is a sure-fire RB1 against Denver's No. 25 rush defense. The Broncos have served up one rushing touchdown per game and are allowing 4.4 yards per carry. They're defending so poorly that Shonn Greene even looks like a strong flex. Baltimore backs combined for an otherworldly 250 total yards and three TDs against them last week.

Oakland @ San Francisco

As pointed out by Pro Football Focus, Zach Miller has missed one offensive snap all year. The zone-busting tight end is on an unmitigated tear, ranking third at his position in fantasy points and first over the last three weeks. The Niners have allowed a tight end to find the end zone in three of their last four games. ... Jason Campbell draws the start for Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder). After entering in Week 5, Campbell directed six of his passes Miller's way, and four to Louis Murphy. Darrius Heyward-Bey wasn't targeted once, finishing the game without a catch. Campbell also hit Murphy on a 58-yard catch-and-run. Murphy has had back-to-back slow games, but is undoubtedly the best bet for production in Oakland's wideout corps. Miller should still lead the way in receiving.

Darren McFadden (hamstring) is tentatively expected to be active at Candlestick, but coach Tom Cable has made it clear that Michael Bush will continue to serve as Oakland's feature back. Bush ranked second among NFL rushers in workload last week, generating 135 yards and a touchdown on 29 touches. Dating back to camp, the Raiders never had any intention of using a running back committee, and they've followed through by employing a true workhorse in every game this season. Expect another 25-plus touches for Bush against a 49ers run defense springing leaks. There's talk in the Bay Area that NT Aubrayo Franklin's offseason-long holdout has affected his play, and it's showing up in ILB Patrick Willis' statistics as well as Willis' on-field effectiveness.

Oakland is coming off an upset win over San Diego and facing the 0-5 49ers, but the Niners are still 6.5-point favorites. We're pretty sure where the points and production are going to come from. The Raiders' rebuilt defense still has no prayer of stopping the run, ranking 31st in the league and surrendering a league-high 5.0 yards per carry with the second-most rushing touchdowns against. Such a favorable matchup can't help but make Frank Gore's 3.5 YPC average to this point look much better. Wesseling and Rosenthal rank Gore first among all Week 6 running back plays.

Michael Crabtree has enjoyed back-to-back season-best games since the installation of new OC Mike Johnson, playing with consistency and racking up yards after the reception. Johnson is moving Crabtree all around the offensive formation, so last year's No. 10 overall pick doesn't have to worry about Raiders RCB Nnamdi Asomugha sticking to him like glue. Ride Crabtree while he's hot. ... Oakland's previously stingy pass defense was exposed as a lackluster unit by Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates in Week 5, with Philip Rivers hitting each for a touchdown and throwing for 431 yards. Vernon Davis has at least 73 yards or a score in all but one game this year, and 10-of-12 dating back to 2009. He may come close to equaling last season's career year, after all.



4:15PM ET Game

Dallas @ Minnesota

Felix Jones may not be in on the first snap of the game, but he's assumed lead back duties in Dallas by a clear margin. Jones' 19 touches in Week 5 (compared to "starter" Marion Barber's six) were the most by a Cowboy back in any game this season. He also entered on the second snap of the contest, playing the majority of early downs while Barber concentrated on passing-down work. The arrow is pointing up for Jones. He'll be an excellent buy low if the Vikings' top-nine run defense holds him in check. He has one of the more favorable running back schedules in the league, especially for the fantasy playoffs (@ IND, vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ ARZ). ... Jason Witten is catching fire with an average of six catches for 64 yards per game in his last three. He'll continue to take on a prominent role with Dez Bryant (ankle) at significantly less than 100 percent.

Bryant has all the talent in the world, but so far he's unable to stay healthy. He also hasn't found the end zone as a receiver. Bench him until he breaks out. ... Roy Williams is benefiting from constant single teams and Bryant's inability to play a full snap count. Williams has three TDs and an average of six catches for 102 yards in his last two games. He definitely won't keep it up, but is at least worth WR3 consideration until Bryant overcomes the injury bug. ... You know a receiver is one of the best in football when he beats double coverage. Coming off a nine-catch, 166-yard, one-score effort in which he played the entire game with a safety over the top, Miles Austin is a top-three NFL wideout. ... The Vikings lost RCB Cedric Griffin for the year last week, and will replace him with Lito Sheppard. Tony Romo has five touchdowns in his last two games.

The media has made the story of Brett Favre (elbow) potentially missing his first career start a much bigger deal than it is. There's a reason the Vikings scaled back his reps this week, and it's not because they're counting on him missing games. He's resting the elbow to play. Favre threw for three touchdowns and 264 yards in his first game with Randy Moss, against the Jets' league-best pass defense and despite an awful first three quarters. He's an every-week starter from here on out. ... Moss, the No. 15 fantasy receiver through five weeks, may actually do more to help Percy Harvin's cause than his own in Minnesota. Harvin was the most dangerous player on the field last Monday night, and gets to play much more often in his natural slot position with Moss out wide.

The Cowboys' defense is good all around, but they're most leaky on the ground. Dallas' 4.5 yards-per-carry average allowed is the seventh highest in football, and observers of Vikings-Jets may have noticed big holes in New York's defense on numerous Adrian Peterson runs. It's the Moss effect. A.P. ripped off 5.7 yards per touch and 4.9 yards per carry against a Jets defense that surrenders 3.07 YPC to everyone else. ... It appears Visanthe Shiancoe will be most adversely affected by the Moss move. A hamstring injury isn't helping, but Shiancoe took a big backseat to Moss and Harvin, catching two passes for 28 yards. Wait for something substantial before using Shiancoe again. ... Bernard Berrian played 12 snaps in Week 5. He wasn't targeted once.

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis @ Washington

The Chiefs slowed Peyton Manning in Week 5 with constant nickel and dime packages. It's not in aggressive Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett to employ such tactics, so expect more blitzing than five- and six-man fronts. Manning should go deep plenty. ... Behind Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon is the Colts' top vertical threat. Finally healthy and playing a full complement of snaps (92.4 percent of the downs last week), Garcon is a recommended WR2 at FedEx Field. ... Austin Collie did labor through Week 5 due to a foot injury, but played 54-of-79 snaps. Collie practiced more this week than last, indicating that he's getting healthier and will see even more playing time Sunday. Washington ranks 30th in pass defense. Their secondary isn't that bad, but teams are attacking them in the air. The Colts lead the NFL in pass attempts and will follow suit.

Dallas Clark returns from a 20-yard game in which Kansas City used brackets to make him a non-factor. A rare drop didn't help Clark, but he's still a top-five fantasy tight end. You use him every week. ... Like Collie (foot) and Garcon (hamstring), Joseph Addai (shoulder) is "questionable" on the injury report but practiced fully Friday and will start against the Skins. Particularly with Donald Brown (hamstring) expected to be inactive, Addai is a weekly threat for 20-plus touches and all goal-line work. Shoot, he handled the ball 22 times last week despite leaving in the third quarter due to shoulder soreness. On pace for a career-high 57 receptions, Addai is an every-week RB2 regardless of format.

This game sets up as a potential shootout. Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan have turned Santana Moss from one of the least consistent commodities in fantasy football into a top-14 receiver who's caught fewer than six passes in one game all year. Look for Moss' second TD of 2010 against an Indianapolis pass defense that hasn't come close to its usual standards. Two of the Colts' top three safeties are either done for the year (Melvin Bullitt) or until December (Bob Sanders), and nickel back Jacob Lacey is questionable-to-doubtful with a foot injury. ... Tight ends traditionally have success against Indianapolis' Cover 2. Losing next to nothing to Fred Davis (four catches, three targets on the season), Chris Cooley should exploit a defense that allowed a Marcedes Lewis touchdown in Week 4 and Tony Moeaki to lead the Chiefs in receiving in Week 5.

Boding well for Ryan Torain is his effectiveness in the passing game. Torain caught four passes last week and protected well. He won't be a difference-making rusher after so many surgeries sapped his burst, but every-down backs are hard to find, and Torain qualifies. Keiland Williams is only a situational passing-down back. Consider Torain a low-end RB2 with touchdown potential against Indianapolis' 29th-ranked run defense. The Colts' front seven is extremely leaky, serving up 4.8 yards a carry and a rushing score per game. ... Anthony Armstrong is an interesting prospect. He can fly, which is what Shanahan is looking for in a bookend for Moss. Armstrong is still rotating with nominal starter Joey Galloway, but McNabb has made fantasy options out of much worse receivers in his career (e.g. Freddie Mitchell, Todd Pinkston, Reggie Brown).

Monday Night Football

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 3.98 YPC despite having faced just one team that ranks better than 24th in run defense. Last week at Buffalo, MJD (19-84) was even out-produced by debuting rookie Deji Karim (15-70) on a per-carry basis. Making matters worse for Jones-Drew is Jacksonville's inability to create lanes. According to Pro Football Focus, Jags RG Uche Nwaneri ranks 57th out of 72 qualifying guards in run blocking, while LG Justin Smiley is 44th. C Brad Meester has held his own, but to jump-start the running game the Jags might have to increase Karim's role. With 4.37 speed and superior initial burst, Karim is a better bet to reach the perimeter than Jones-Drew at this point. Monday night's matchup is difficult against Tennessee's No. 11 run defense. The Titans have allowed one rushing score in five games and surrender a modest 4.2 yards per carry.

Mike Sims-Walker's problem isn't that he's in the doghouse. He's just not being treated like a No. 1 receiver. Possession wideout Mike Thomas leads the Jags in targets and yards, and Marcedes Lewis in touchdowns. Sims-Walker will continue to be a hit-or-miss option going forward, though Monday's date with Cortland Finnegan is enticing. Finnegan was burned over and over by Miles Austin in Week 5. ... With back-to-back legitimately good games, David Garrard has returned to strong QB2 status. He's currently No. 8 in fantasy points at the position, and Tennessee has plummeted to 27th in the pass defense rankings. The best news for Garrard is his improved protection. Second-year OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton are looking like dead-on hits for GM Gene Smith. ... Lewis is piling up touchdowns while averaging 38.4 yards per game. I prefer tight ends with more upside. The scoring pace definitely won't keep up.

The Jaguars' defense is a long bomb waiting to happen. Jacksonville has served up the most 20-plus yard completions in football, including an incredible eight that have gone for 40 or longer. The Titans are a run-heavy team in nature, but Kenny Britt needs to stay in lineups as a WR3 with upside. Having scored a touchdown in three straight games, Britt now faces off with a Jags team that also leads the NFL in passing scores allowed. It's a big-time mismatch on paper, with Britt as the favorite. ... Nate Washington has clearly been unseated by Britt as the Titans' No. 1 receiver, Washington falls to desperation WR3 play going forward. ... Justin Gage (hamstring) won't play.

Just when it looked like Chris Johnson was really struggling, be broke out for 132 yards and two touchdowns last week against Dallas. Johnson ranks second to only Antonio Gates in TDs accounted for, and Jacksonville gives up the second most rushing scores in the league. CJ2K had 239 yards and two touchdowns in his last date with the Jags. ... Vince Young is running less this season (his year high is 30 rushing yards) while averaging 19.2 pass attempts for 137 yards per game. The matchup is right, but you're counting almost entirely on Young throwing for multiple scores to use him as a fantasy starter. For this reason, he's just barely a top-12 QB play.