Matchups: Running Up Hillis

1:00PM ET Games

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Sunday's forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium includes a 60 percent chance of snow and 14-17 MPH winds. The wind is minimally concerning, but the overall elements certainly could factor in with weak-armed quarterbacks on both sides. Deep threats like Mohamed Massaquoi and Lee Evans are safe to sit. Possession receivers like Steve Johnson and Ben Watson are unlikely to be as affected. ... Regardless, Peyton Hillis will be the premier fantasy play in a game Vegas projects to produce the fewest points across the Week 14 schedule. Getting the ball a league-high 27.8 times in his last five games, Hillis squares off with a Bills defense that ranks dead last against the run and has allowed the second most rushing scores in the AFC. If Delhomme is forced to check down often because he can't power passes downfield in the poor conditions, Hillis will be the recipient.

Tight end-desperate owners could do worse than Watson after last week's 100-yard game at Miami, but there's also plenty of room for disappointment. Watson has topped 62 yards three times this year, and following the previous two games he posted a combined one catch for 18 yards (including a Week 11 goose egg at Jacksonville). The Bills have been far stingier against tight ends of late, as no TE has topped 50 yards against them since Week 7 and the only tight end to score on Buffalo during that span was Greg Olsen in Week 9 from four yards out. Play Watson if your alternative is someone like Aaron Hernandez, but don't start him over Brandon Pettigrew or Chris Cooley.

Worsening Buffalo weather is bad news for the Bills' passing game, but not quite as disastrous as LT Demetrius Bell's collapse. Since playing passably early this season, Bell has fallen to pieces in pass protection of late. Vikings RE Jared Allen was the latest to dominate Bell in Week 13, registering a sack and four further QB hits and hurries according to Pro Football Focus, as well as causing Bell to false start. Ryan Fitzpatrick has topped one passing score in just one of his last six games. Now facing a Browns defense that ranks second in interceptions, Fitz safely is back to low-end QB2 status, where he belongs. ... It's fair to be concerned about Steve Johnson after a 36-yard game on four targets and two grabs, but now is no time to sit the No. 8 overall fantasy wideout. Johnson will match up with Browns rookie LCB Joe Haden for most of this one. ... Evans is the Bills' receiver to sit. He hasn't scored since Week 7 and has three or fewer catches in five straight.

Fred Jackson owners concerned with his Week 13 clunker (48 scoreless yards) and C.J. Spiller's return have received more reason to bench the Weeks 10-12 hero. Buffalo's crumbling offensive line will start Eric Wood (coming off knee injury, first career NFL start at center), LG Andy Levitre (horrible run blocker), and RG Ed Wang (second career NFL appearance). The bookends will be the aforementioned LT Bell and 6-foot-3 converted guard Mansfield Wrotto at right tackle. You couldn't name a worse starting five in football, which doesn't bode well against a Browns defense that has surrendered a league-low four rushing touchdowns and just barely allows over 4.0 yards per carry. If you're a competitive fantasy leaguer, you can do better than Fred Jackson this week.

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Regardless of the Vikings' Week 14 quarterback -- it's expected to be Brett Favre -- Sidney Rice played his way into fantasy lineups for good last Sunday. Drawing heavy attention from the Bills' secondary with Percy Harvin (migraine) inactive, Rice whipped constant double teams en route to a 5/105/2 line that could've been far bigger had Minnesota needed to throw in the second half of the blowout. Just as promisingly, Rice laid out for tough grabs to confirm that he's no longer worried about his surgically repaired hip. Though the Giants lead the NFC in pass defense, Rice will be a good weekly bet to pace the Vikings in targets, catches, and yards going forward. ... The G-Men have allowed only two TDs to tight ends, and only three teams have given up fewer fantasy points to the position. If one touchdown in his last 11 games and a 27.5 yards-per-game average dating back to Week 2 weren't enough for you to bench Visanthe Shiancoe, his poor matchup should be.

Showing no signs of the previous week's ankle sprain, Adrian Peterson gashed Buffalo for his second best YPC average (6.69) of the season last week. Peterson's cutting ability on the ankle was most impressive, as he routinely made defenders miss and put the entire Bills defense off balance on behind-the-line jukes prior to his 43-yard touchdown dash. The Giants' No. 7 run defense ranking looks good on paper, but they're permitting a whopping 5.69 yards per carry to opposing running backs in their last four games, with three rushing scores against. This isn't a difficult matchup. ... Toby Gerhart's role was expanded on early downs last week due to the Vikings' concern with Peterson's ankle. He'll return to clear backup status on Sunday. ... Assuming he's active Harvin's big-play ability is impossible to sit in leagues that use a WR3, but the Giants have stifled slot receivers all season. Ask Jason Avant (2/39), Austin Collie (4/25), and Earl Bennett (4/26) about it.

UPDATE: Harvin is listed as doubtful on the injury report and is highly likely to be inactive Sunday. Rice is a safe bet to lead the Vikings in pass targets.

The Giants are tentatively expected to get back Hakeem Nicks (leg) and Steve Smith (pectoral), although both may be on snap counts. As talented as the two are, an ideal fantasy scenario would be to see Nicks and Smith's roles and health reestablished before plugging them into lineups. ... If they're both active, Nicks would be the stronger bet as a WR3. Smith plays flanker in two-receiver sets and the slot in three-wide formations -- the same positions covered by shutdown Vikings CB Antoine Winfield. Nicks should see a lot of burnable RCB Asher Allen. ... Mario Manningham will continue to get plenty of playing time for usage as a WR3. Manningham's mental lapses aside, his vertical skills are difficult to discount indoors against a Vikings defense that's vulnerable in the air.

Eli Manning had multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games entering last week's rout of Washington, an easy win that necessitated just 15 pass completions after the G-Men sprinted out to a 28-0 lead. Assuming Nicks and Smith are back at least as part-timers, Manning qualifies as a respectable low-end QB1. ... Kevin Boss takes the biggest hit with New York's wideouts returning. He can go back to blocking with Smith hogging possession targets. ... Ahmad Bradshaw's short-area quicks and shiftiness are likely to pose more matchup problems for The Williams Wall than Brandon Jacobs' hard-charging style, though the latter remains worthy of high-end flex consideration. Despite "losing" his starting job, Bradshaw has emerged as the better bet for touches and all-purpose yardage. Bradshaw also scored both of his touchdowns last week on red-zone runs.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Sunday's Bengals-Steelers forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of snow and temps in the mid-30s. Wind shouldn't be a factor, but combine the elements with this game's Vegas projection as the lowest scoring of Week 14, and it's a good tiebreaker for lineup decisions on borderline starts like Chad Ochocinco, Cedric Benson, Jermaine Gresham, Hines Ward, and the Steelers' tight end. ... Ochocinco looks like a particularly poor bet. Stinko hasn't topped 54 yards against Pittsburgh since 2007, with Ike Taylor owning him to the tune of 15 yards on one catch earlier this season. ... If you're starting Benson, you're essentially gambling that a player who's scored a rushing touchdown in 5-of-12 games this season will find pay dirt against a Steelers defense that has given up the fewest rushing scores in the league. Benson almost certainly isn't going to top 60 yards.

Playing the majority of his snaps on the right side of the formation, Terrell Owens will face off with Steelers LCB Bryant McFadden for most of this game. Opponents are picking apart McFadden, and T.O. posted a 10/141/2 line against Pittsburgh in Week 9. Owens is the only recommended fantasy play on the Bengals' roster this week. ... Carson Palmer could potentially end up with a bunch of pass attempts after his team falls behind big early, but the declining passer's inability to power the football downfield bodes exceptionally poorly in inclement weather. Palmer has a 6:8 TD-to-INT ratio in his last four games. He's averaging 204.7 passing yards per game in his last three.

The Bengals' secondary has most of its members back healthy, but it's still surrendering yards and scores by the truckload. Cincy has been lit up for 300-plus yards and multiple passing TDs (six combined) by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Drew Brees in two of its last three games. The biggest problem is defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's inability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as his unit ranks dead last in the league in sacks. Ben Roethlisberger is awfully dangerous with all day to throw. ... Shaky weather is much more of a concern for quarterbacks with modest arm strength. Big Ben has a cannon and should not struggle to connect with his deep threats. Mike Wallace's move into the No. 1 receiver role couldn't have been more evident than last Sunday night, when he was used heavily on screens and short, timing passes, a role once filled by Hines Ward. Wallace destroyed the Bengals for 110 yards and a score on five catches last time out. Start 'em.

Outside of what's proven a fluky 7/107 line against Terrence McGee-less Buffalo in Week 12, Hines Ward has all but vanished from the Steelers' passing attack since the first month and a half. He's bested 28 yards just the one time in his last six games, and hasn't found the end zone since Week 9. Held to 10 yards on three catches in his last date with Cincinnati, Ward bottomed out last week with four targets and one reception. In the fantasy playoffs, here's hoping you can do better. ... Has any team flopped against the run as badly from this season to last as the Bungles? Last year's No. 7 overall unit now ranks 24th and surrenders 4.60 yards per carry. If undrafted rookie Chris Ivory can dump 117 yards and two touchdowns on Cincy, the sky is the limit for Rashard Mendenhall.

1:00PM ET Games

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Sunday's forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium includes a 60 percent chance of snow and 14-17 MPH winds. The wind is minimally concerning, but the overall elements certainly could factor in with weak-armed quarterbacks on both sides. Deep threats like Mohamed Massaquoi and Lee Evans are safe to sit. Possession receivers like Steve Johnson and Ben Watson are unlikely to be as affected. ... Regardless, Peyton Hillis will be the premier fantasy play in a game Vegas projects to produce the fewest points across the Week 14 schedule. Getting the ball a league-high 27.8 times in his last five games, Hillis squares off with a Bills defense that ranks dead last against the run and has allowed the second most rushing scores in the AFC. If Delhomme is forced to check down often because he can't power passes downfield in the poor conditions, Hillis will be the recipient.

Tight end-desperate owners could do worse than Watson after last week's 100-yard game at Miami, but there's also plenty of room for disappointment. Watson has topped 62 yards three times this year, and following the previous two games he posted a combined one catch for 18 yards (including a Week 11 goose egg at Jacksonville). The Bills have been far stingier against tight ends of late, as no TE has topped 50 yards against them since Week 7 and the only tight end to score on Buffalo during that span was Greg Olsen in Week 9 from four yards out. Play Watson if your alternative is someone like Aaron Hernandez, but don't start him over Brandon Pettigrew or Chris Cooley.

Worsening Buffalo weather is bad news for the Bills' passing game, but not quite as disastrous as LT Demetrius Bell's collapse. Since playing passably early this season, Bell has fallen to pieces in pass protection of late. Vikings RE Jared Allen was the latest to dominate Bell in Week 13, registering a sack and four further QB hits and hurries according to Pro Football Focus, as well as causing Bell to false start. Ryan Fitzpatrick has topped one passing score in just one of his last six games. Now facing a Browns defense that ranks second in interceptions, Fitz safely is back to low-end QB2 status, where he belongs. ... It's fair to be concerned about Steve Johnson after a 36-yard game on four targets and two grabs, but now is no time to sit the No. 8 overall fantasy wideout. Johnson will match up with Browns rookie LCB Joe Haden for most of this one. ... Evans is the Bills' receiver to sit. He hasn't scored since Week 7 and has three or fewer catches in five straight.

Fred Jackson owners concerned with his Week 13 clunker (48 scoreless yards) and C.J. Spiller's return have received more reason to bench the Weeks 10-12 hero. Buffalo's crumbling offensive line will start Eric Wood (coming off knee injury, first career NFL start at center), LG Andy Levitre (horrible run blocker), and RG Ed Wang (second career NFL appearance). The bookends will be the aforementioned LT Bell and 6-foot-3 converted guard Mansfield Wrotto at right tackle. You couldn't name a worse starting five in football, which doesn't bode well against a Browns defense that has surrendered a league-low four rushing touchdowns and just barely allows over 4.0 yards per carry. If you're a competitive fantasy leaguer, you can do better than Fred Jackson this week.

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Regardless of the Vikings' Week 14 quarterback -- it's expected to be Brett Favre -- Sidney Rice played his way into fantasy lineups for good last Sunday. Drawing heavy attention from the Bills' secondary with Percy Harvin (migraine) inactive, Rice whipped constant double teams en route to a 5/105/2 line that could've been far bigger had Minnesota needed to throw in the second half of the blowout. Just as promisingly, Rice laid out for tough grabs to confirm that he's no longer worried about his surgically repaired hip. Though the Giants lead the NFC in pass defense, Rice will be a good weekly bet to pace the Vikings in targets, catches, and yards going forward. ... The G-Men have allowed only two TDs to tight ends, and only three teams have given up fewer fantasy points to the position. If one touchdown in his last 11 games and a 27.5 yards-per-game average dating back to Week 2 weren't enough for you to bench Visanthe Shiancoe, his poor matchup should be.

Showing no signs of the previous week's ankle sprain, Adrian Peterson gashed Buffalo for his second best YPC average (6.69) of the season last week. Peterson's cutting ability on the ankle was most impressive, as he routinely made defenders miss and put the entire Bills defense off balance on behind-the-line jukes prior to his 43-yard touchdown dash. The Giants' No. 7 run defense ranking looks good on paper, but they're permitting a whopping 5.69 yards per carry to opposing running backs in their last four games, with three rushing scores against. This isn't a difficult matchup. ... Toby Gerhart's role was expanded on early downs last week due to the Vikings' concern with Peterson's ankle. He'll return to clear backup status on Sunday. ... Assuming he's active Harvin's big-play ability is impossible to sit in leagues that use a WR3, but the Giants have stifled slot receivers all season. Ask Jason Avant (2/39), Austin Collie (4/25), and Earl Bennett (4/26) about it.

UPDATE: Harvin is listed as doubtful on the injury report and is highly likely to be inactive Sunday. Rice is a safe bet to lead the Vikings in pass targets.

The Giants are tentatively expected to get back Hakeem Nicks (leg) and Steve Smith (pectoral), although both may be on snap counts. As talented as the two are, an ideal fantasy scenario would be to see Nicks and Smith's roles and health reestablished before plugging them into lineups. ... If they're both active, Nicks would be the stronger bet as a WR3. Smith plays flanker in two-receiver sets and the slot in three-wide formations -- the same positions covered by shutdown Vikings CB Antoine Winfield. Nicks should see a lot of burnable RCB Asher Allen. ... Mario Manningham will continue to get plenty of playing time for usage as a WR3. Manningham's mental lapses aside, his vertical skills are difficult to discount indoors against a Vikings defense that's vulnerable in the air.

Eli Manning had multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games entering last week's rout of Washington, an easy win that necessitated just 15 pass completions after the G-Men sprinted out to a 28-0 lead. Assuming Nicks and Smith are back at least as part-timers, Manning qualifies as a respectable low-end QB1. ... Kevin Boss takes the biggest hit with New York's wideouts returning. He can go back to blocking with Smith hogging possession targets. ... Ahmad Bradshaw's short-area quicks and shiftiness are likely to pose more matchup problems for The Williams Wall than Brandon Jacobs' hard-charging style, though the latter remains worthy of high-end flex consideration. Despite "losing" his starting job, Bradshaw has emerged as the better bet for touches and all-purpose yardage. Bradshaw also scored both of his touchdowns last week on red-zone runs.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Sunday's Bengals-Steelers forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of snow and temps in the mid-30s. Wind shouldn't be a factor, but combine the elements with this game's Vegas projection as the lowest scoring of Week 14, and it's a good tiebreaker for lineup decisions on borderline starts like Chad Ochocinco, Cedric Benson, Jermaine Gresham, Hines Ward, and the Steelers' tight end. ... Ochocinco looks like a particularly poor bet. Stinko hasn't topped 54 yards against Pittsburgh since 2007, with Ike Taylor owning him to the tune of 15 yards on one catch earlier this season. ... If you're starting Benson, you're essentially gambling that a player who's scored a rushing touchdown in 5-of-12 games this season will find pay dirt against a Steelers defense that has given up the fewest rushing scores in the league. Benson almost certainly isn't going to top 60 yards.

Playing the majority of his snaps on the right side of the formation, Terrell Owens will face off with Steelers LCB Bryant McFadden for most of this game. Opponents are picking apart McFadden, and T.O. posted a 10/141/2 line against Pittsburgh in Week 9. Owens is the only recommended fantasy play on the Bengals' roster this week. ... Carson Palmer could potentially end up with a bunch of pass attempts after his team falls behind big early, but the declining passer's inability to power the football downfield bodes exceptionally poorly in inclement weather. Palmer has a 6:8 TD-to-INT ratio in his last four games. He's averaging 204.7 passing yards per game in his last three.

The Bengals' secondary has most of its members back healthy, but it's still surrendering yards and scores by the truckload. Cincy has been lit up for 300-plus yards and multiple passing TDs (six combined) by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Drew Brees in two of its last three games. The biggest problem is defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's inability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as his unit ranks dead last in the league in sacks. Ben Roethlisberger is awfully dangerous with all day to throw. ... Shaky weather is much more of a concern for quarterbacks with modest arm strength. Big Ben has a cannon and should not struggle to connect with his deep threats. Mike Wallace's move into the No. 1 receiver role couldn't have been more evident than last Sunday night, when he was used heavily on screens and short, timing passes, a role once filled by Hines Ward. Wallace destroyed the Bengals for 110 yards and a score on five catches last time out. Start 'em.

Outside of what's proven a fluky 7/107 line against Terrence McGee-less Buffalo in Week 12, Hines Ward has all but vanished from the Steelers' passing attack since the first month and a half. He's bested 28 yards just the one time in his last six games, and hasn't found the end zone since Week 9. Held to 10 yards on three catches in his last date with Cincinnati, Ward bottomed out last week with four targets and one reception. In the fantasy playoffs, here's hoping you can do better. ... Has any team flopped against the run as badly from this season to last as the Bungles? Last year's No. 7 overall unit now ranks 24th and surrenders 4.60 yards per carry. If undrafted rookie Chris Ivory can dump 117 yards and two touchdowns on Cincy, the sky is the limit for Rashard Mendenhall.



Tampa Bay @ Washington

With Albert Haynesworth out of the Skins' lineup for good, you won't find a more favorable matchup for opposing running games in the final three fantasy weeks. Even before Big Al's season-ending suspension, Washington was surrendering a league-high 4.95 yards per carry as well as a rushing score per game. Though the Bucs have talked up Earnest Graham as a potential replacement for LeGarrette Blount in goal-to-go situations, the threat seems to be more of a motivational tactic than anything else. Graham hasn't touched the football in Tampa Bay's last two games, and has all of four carries for nine yards dating back to Week 5. Graham is hardly a better bet to push the pile than the 240-pound Blount, who since taking over the Bucs' lead back role is averaging 4.59 yards per carry. Blount should be started with confidence as a high-end RB2 in non-PPR leagues.

The Bucs' passing offense projects to have success against Washington's No. 29 pass defense, but a run-heavy game plan is likely. The Bucs' top wideout is banged up, and the Skins are even more susceptible on the ground. 2-4 when Josh Freeman attempts 37 or more passes, the Bucs are still a run-first team. Freeman has also not exceeded one TD in any of those six contests with 206.3 yards per game and 5.58 yards per attempt. ... Mike Williams (knee) is shaping up as a game-day decision. He's an elite WR3 if active, but you'll have to check back Sunday morning. ... Kellen Winslow would get a huge boost as Freeman's No. 1 receiver if Williams missed the game. If Williams plays, Winslow reverts to low-end TE1 status against a Redskins defense that allows the seventh fewest yards in the league to tight ends.

As of Thursday night, a 60 percent chance of rain and 14MPH winds were in the Sunday forecast for FedEx Field. Neither is a big concern. Wind doesn't become worrisome until about the 20MPH mark. ... Owners are down on Chris Cooley for his shortage of touchdowns (two all year, none since Week 4), but Captain Chaos ranks second to only Jason Witten in tight end receptions across the NFL, and the middle of the Bucs' defense is likely to be open more than usual with FS Cody Grimm out for the year and Tampa forced to account for top CB Aqib Talib's absence outside. ... Speaking of Talib's loss, it's a crushing blow to a defense that schemes around his ability to check No. 1 receivers. The Bucs are expected to force E.J. Biggers (two career starts) into that role against Santana Moss. With 64 yards combined in his last two games, however, Moss is merely a WR3.

Anthony Armstrong has picked up the slack with Moss struggling (someone's got to), averaging a solid 73.2 yards in his last five games. Armstrong is only a desperation play, but there are worse options against a depleted Bucs secondary. ... The matchup is terrific for Washington's running game against Tampa's No. 26 rush defense, but Ryan Torain's (hamstring) return muddies an already difficult backfield to pin down. Without question, Torain is the Skins' best early-down ball carrier, but Mike Shanahan is also high on James Davis (4.44 YPC last week) and Torain is coming back from a five-week layoff after multiple setbacks. My best guess is that Torain and Davis form a somewhat even committee Sunday, canceling each other out from a fantasy perspective. Torain could perhaps reemerge as a relatively trustworthy asset in Weeks 15 (@ DAL) and 16 (@ JAX).

Atlanta @ Carolina

In Jonathan Stewart's three-year career, the Panthers are 13-1 when he receives 15 or more carries. Stewart has scored 16 TDs in those 14 games and averages 5.29 YPC (his career average is 4.67). Though Mike Goodson has avoided the injury report after spraining his AC joint in last week's loss, it's become clear that Stewart is Carolina's feature back after The Daily Show received 22 Week 13 touches to Goodson's three. Stewart's matchup is difficult on paper against an Atlanta defense that ranks eighth against the run, but the Falcons also permit over 4.3 yards per carry and were touched up for 151 rushing yards and a rushing score by the Bucs last week. J-Stew is a rock-solid RB2.

Whereas there is optimism in the backfield with a rejuvenated Stewart leading the way, Jimmy Clausen's inability to put together four quarters of competent play makes Carolina's receiver corps one to avoid. Steve Smith is a WR4. David Gettis and Brandon LaFell are waiver wire fodder.

The Falcons project to dominate this game on the ground. Due to myriad injuries, the Panthers' linebacker group is in shambles with MLB Jon Beason the latest to come down with an injury (knee). Carolina ranks 27th against the run and has permitted the third most rushing scores in the NFC. Only the Bills, Broncos, and Cardinals have more rushing attempts against, confirming that opponents know exactly where to attack coordinator Ron Meeks' defense. A red-hot Michael Turner will again not have Jason Snelling (hamstring) to "compete" with for running back snaps.

Matt Ryan gets downgraded in road games, and this matchup especially pushes him toward low-end QB1 status. The Panthers' top-eight pass defense once again proved legit by holding a previously on-fire Matt Hasselbeck to his lowest yardage total in a month last week, also picking him off twice and allowing no passing scores on 30 attempts. Roddy White must be started week in and week out, but it wouldn't be crazy to consider someone like Eli Manning or Joe Flacco over Ryan this week. ... The Panthers have allowed the fifth most receptions to tight ends in the league, and the second most yards. Tony Gonzalez (ankle) will play on Sunday and should be in fantasy lineups.

Green Bay @ Detroit

Owners of Packers players couldn't ask for more than an indoor game against the Lions to kick off the fantasy playoffs. Aaron Rodgers dusted Detroit for three passing scores and 10.6 yards per attempt in Week 4 despite a vanilla Green Bay offense. Rodgers has accounted for 12 all-purpose TDs in his last four games. You can't name a better quarterback play for Week 14. ... Dating to Week 6, Greg Jennings is averaging over six catches for 109 yards with eight touchdowns in seven games. After losing RCB Alphonso Smith to a separated shoulder, Detroit has no way to contain him. ... Don't chase Donald Driver's 61-yard touchdown from Week 13. He had 12 yards otherwise, and a closer look at the play shows that Driver is still short on acceleration. ... For unknown reasons, James Jones' snap percentage fell from 72.1 in Week 12 to 52.7 last Sunday. Jones' talent-matchup combo is highly intriguing, but he's a risk coming off two catches for eight yards.

James Starks is the Flavor of the Week, but unlike Brian Westbrook the rookie from Buffalo has potential for a real fantasy impact. At an Adrian Peterson-like 6'2/218 with 4.5-flat wheels, Starks has enough speed to reach the perimeter and quickness to make defenders miss. The Packers have also been impressed with Starks' physicality, using him last Sunday as the "closer" back with nine of his 18 carries coming on a fourth-quarter drive to ice the victory. This against a 49ers defense that entered the game ranked eighth against the run. Starks may lose goal-line work to John Kuhn and Dimitri Nance, but he'll dominate open-field touches over Brandon Jackson going forward. You'd be hard pressed to find a better spot start against a Lions defense that ranks 25th against the run, allows 4.58 yards per carry, and has given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Do the Lions have the deepest quarterback depth chart in football? Drew Stanton didn't light up the Week 13 stat sheet, but a 66.7 completion rate, 7.42 YPA, two all-purpose scores, and no turnovers against a dominant Bears defense leave plenty of room for optimism in the Lions' pass-catching corps. Stanton is highly athletic with plenty of arm strength, and knows exactly where to throw the ball. Calvin Johnson now has 10 targets from Stanton on the season, converting seven for 191 yards and two touchdowns. Brandon Pettigrew leads the team in targets from Stanton (16), as well as receptions (10). The Lions scaled back their pass attempts last week, but Megatron and Pettigrew will be fantasy must-starts as long as Stanton is playing serviceably. Another matchup in the passer-friendly confines of domed Ford Field certainly doesn't hurt.

In his career Megatron owns no team to a greater extent than the Packers. In six meetings with Green Bay, he has eight touchdowns, 34 catches, and 464 yards. ... Nate Burleson had 27 yards in Stanton's Week 13 start, the slot receiver's fewest since Week 4. Charles Woodson covers the slot for the Packers, so Burleson can expect to see plenty of the 2009 Defensive Player of the Year in coverage. ... The Lions' front five did a surprisingly good job of opening holes for tailbacks Jahvid Best and Maurice Morris versus Chicago, and Best capitalized for explosive gains of 45, 32, and 8 yards in the loss. Unfortunately, the rookie saw fewer touches than the veteran, and Morris still appears to be the favorite for goal-line carries. At least Best is getting healthier. After battling season-long turf toe on both feet, his speed and quickness look about 80 percent back.

Oakland @ Jacksonville

Quietly concerned with Darren McFadden's two-game lull entering Week 13, the Raiders' coaching staff attempted to light a "spark" in their top back by incorporating Michael Bush more into a heavily run-first game plan. The strategy paid off in a major way, as Oakland opened up an overrated San Diego run defense for 251 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The Raiders have shown no inclination to keep a two-headed backfield permanent, so McFadden is a good bet to retake his featured role the rest of the way. While Bush looms as an extremely high-risk and low-end flex option this week, McFadden is looking at 20-plus carries against a Jags run defense that is much softer than its No. 17 overall ranking indicates. "Run DMC" is right back to rock-solid RB2 status.

Jacoby Ford has passed Darrius Heyward-Bey on the targets totem pole in Oakland, but it's still not enough to make the former Clemson track star a safe WR3. Ford saw just three targets in Week 13, catching one for a four-yard touchdown. The rookie an every-week starter in return-yard formats, but only a WR4/5 in standard settings. ... Louis Murphy is averaging three catches for 45 scoreless yards since returning from a bruised lung three weeks ago. Avoid the Raiders' passing game in fantasy football. ... Zach Miller has devolved into a run-blocking tight end while battling a torn plantar fascia among other ailments to his feet. He hasn't scored or topped nine yards since Week 7.

David Garrard has six turnovers in his last three games and Jacksonville's front five is once again dominating in the trenches. It's no surprise, then, that the Jaguars have taken on an extremely run-heavy design. Obvious beneficiary Maurice Jones-Drew has capitalized by averaging over a 160 total yards per game in his last five efforts. He's also averaging 5.29 yards per carry during that span. Though the Raiders' run defense has shown signs of competency over the last month and a half or so, the unit still ranks 23rd and surrenders 4.40 yards per carry. ... Marcedes Lewis will continue to be a decent bet for red-zone targets, but he's also taken a backseat with the run offense moving into the forefront. Lewis has three catches for 36 scoreless yards in two straight games.

Touchdown-less in his last two games with a 144-yard average, Garrard is now being kept under wraps. He's not to be used against the Raiders' top-nine pass defense. ... Mike Sims-Walker's (ankle) return should eventually give the Jaguars' passing offense a new feel, as they've posed no downfield threat with MSW out of the lineup. Unfortunately, Sims-Walker projects to spend most of Sunday's game in a now-healthy Nnamdi Asomugha's coverage. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chargers targeted Asomugha only once last week. He broke up the pass. ... Possession man Mike Thomas will lose looks to Sims-Walker, and has only topped 46 yards once since Week 6.



4:05PM ET Games

St. Louis @ New Orleans

Vegas projects Rams-Saints as the second highest scoring game of Week 14. The no-brainers for New Orleans are Drew Brees and Marques Colston, but there have been question marks about undrafted rookie Chris Ivory with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas getting healthier. Coach Sean Payton downplayed speculation that Ivory might be replaced as the feature back by confirming this week that his carries would not be reduced on behalf of the veterans. With 254 yards and five scores in his last three games, Ivory now goes against a soft Rams run defense that allows 4.48 yards per carry and lost top OLB Na'il Diggs for the season last week. Particularly in non-PPR leagues, Ivory has earned an RB2 start. ... Thomas will be eased back after a 10-week layoff. He might not exceed five carries against St. Louis. ... Bush has yet to top nine touches in a game this season. Also still not returning punts, Bush is not a fantasy option in any format.

Rams CB Ronald Bartell has no strength in his shoulder after last week's stinger and is doubtful on the injury report. It's more good news for a Saints passing attack on absolute fire. Brees is averaging 326.3 yards in his last six games, topping 300 in five of them. ... The Rams have some history of using Bartell to shadow No. 1 receivers. Without him, they'll struggle to contain a similarly red-hot Colston. Colston is averaging a 7/90/1 line dating back to Week 6 ... Robert Meachem is always a risk-reward option, but he's worth a longer look this week considering the matchup and high-scoring probability. Meachem has three TDs in his last three games, and is coming off an 106-yard effort. ... Lance Moore hasn't topped 43 yards since Week 9 and loses looks in the slot with Bush getting back to full speed. Moore can be dropped in most leagues.

Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson switched places in Week 13, with Bradford looking like a rookie and S-Jax turning in perhaps his most dominant effort of the season against the reeling Arizona defense. The good news for St. Louis' offense is that New Orleans is allowing a lot of points, having let up 27 to Dallas on Thanksgiving and 30 to Cincinnati's 22nd-ranked offense last week. Bradford is a mere two-quarterback league option against the Saints' No. 3 pass defense, but his chances of moving the ball and sustaining drives look good, which bodes well for Jackson. S-Jax has at least 28 touches in three of his last four games. New Orleans' run defense is mediocre, ranking 16th in the league overall, permitting 4.15 yards per carry, and having allowed 11 rushing TDs in 12 games.

Rookie Danario Alexander has yet to top 23 snaps in any game this season, and there are no signs that his playing time will rise as the Rams "manage" his five-times surgically repaired knee. Alexander's big-play ability will keep him as a high-upside, if high-risk WR3, but there's just as good a chance that he'll post a 2/20/0 line as 5/95/1. He's a big-time roll of the dice, in just about every sense of the phrase. ... Danny Amendola took a somewhat surprising backseat last week as the Rams went run-heavy against the Cardinals, finishing with his worst fantasy performance of the season. He'll return from the clunker as a fine bet for six catches and 60-70 yards in this potential shootout. ... Brandon Gibson has at least 54 yards or a TD in four of his last five games. Alexander's ceiling is still preferable if you're starting a Rams wideout not named Amendola.

Seattle @ San Francisco

Just like last week, Seattle's receiver corps is a fantasy situation to avoid. Already short on quick-twitch athleticism, Big Mike Williams has a sprained left ankle on top of a left foot sprain and didn't make it through a quarter last week. Regardless of matchup, BMW should be benched. ... Ben Obomanu has a lacerated hand, with the cut extending into the webbing of his fingers. He may be active Sunday, but injured wideouts with no track record of sustained productivity are poor fantasy bets. ... Certainly not helped by Williams and Obo's in-game injuries, Matt Hasselbeck showed his true colors last week with two picks, no scores, and 229 yards (his fewest since Week 8) against a Carolina team that deactivated top CB Chris Gamble. Hasselbeck is only a two-QB league option.

Look for Golden Tate and Deon Butler to be the Seahawks' outside receivers at San Francisco, with Brandon Stokley in the slot. One of the above may emerge with a decent game, but your guess is as good as mine as to whom it will be. ... The 49ers have a top-ten run defense, have given up just seven rushing TDs in 12 games, and allow the second fewest yards per carry in the NFC. It was nice to see that Marshawn Lynch can still execute on the goal line last week, but owners betting on a re-born Lynch are likely to come away disappointed, particularly in this matchup. Throw out a 22-yard garbage-time touchdown run on which he went untouched save for a pathetic open-field tackle attempt by Panthers FS Sherrod Martin, and Lynch averaged his usual 3.05 yards per carry last week.

I'm strongly of the belief that the 49ers were mistaken to bench Troy for Alex Smith because both are in contract years and Troy has a better shot to be at least a halfway serviceable future solution. In fantasy terms, though, Alex gives his pass catchers a better chance for production simply in that he completes more passes. Troy's completion rate was just 52.4 compared to Alex's 59.1. (Although Troy's yards-per-attempt average was much better.) Still, Troy was killing Vernon Davis right up until last week's 66-yard touchdown. Expect Davis to hover around six catches per game the rest of the way. If Davis' yards-per-reception average holds, that would make him good for over 90 weekly yards. He's a top-three tight end play in the final four weeks.

Michael Crabtree's run-after-catch skills will be put to more use with Alex under center, and the 49ers may also incorporate increased use of the spread offense. Crabtree played in a spread under Mike Leach at Texas Tech. ... Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon shared the 49ers' backfield equally last week, and will likely continue to do so going forward. Dixon averaged more yards per carry and also had the Niners' lone running back catch. A better bet for goal-line work, Dixon will be the superior fantasy option going forward. Unfortunately, neither is an enticing flex gamble even in this favorable matchup. Dixon is the guy if you're looking for a one-week sleeper.

4:15PM ET Games

New England @ Chicago

A Week 13 game plan geared to attack Detroit with quick-outs led to career highs in catches (7) and yards (104) for Bears slot man Earl Bennett. Chicago's outside receivers took a backseat as Bennett, running backs, and tight ends accounted for 81 percent of Jay Cutler's completions, 85 percent of his yards, and his lone passing score. You could do worse than Bennett as a WR3 in PPR leagues, but he'll need Mike Martz to employ a similar strategy to double last week's stats. Working in Bennett's favor is a Pats defense that is susceptible to slot receivers. ... Greg Olsen and Devin Hester were targeted once apiece last week. Neither gets the ball enough to be an effective fantasy play. ... Last week's game plan hurt Johnny Knox, but it's hard to not like his Week 14 matchup. Knox runs most of his routes down the left sideline, which happens to be where New England's defense is noticeably weak. Knox is essentially an every-week WR3 in non-PPR.

The big concern for Knox and the deep ball, however, is the Soldier Field forecast. Weather.com projects an 80 percent chance of snow and 28-30 MPH winds. We get concerned about wind at about 20MPH, and intermittent gusts off Lake Michigan threaten to be fierce. Jay Cutler has a great on-paper matchup against New England's No. 31 pass defense, but the Pats' Week 13 shutdown of the Jets coupled with the Chicago weather provide plenty of reason to be extremely cautious about Cutler. Just don't start someone like David Garrard over him. ... Matt Forte has three straight games of 100-plus total yards, and backup Chester Taylor missed practice time this week with a knee injury. Look for Forte to be the Bears' offensive focal point in a weather-affected game. The Pats are mediocre in run defense, ranking 19th in the league and allowing 4.26 YPC.

The triviality of analyzing matchups for matchup-proof starters: I've identified two games in the last month in which I saw no reason to believe Tom Brady would have a big day. Brady proceeded to light up the Steelers and Jets for 676 yards and eight all-purpose touchdowns. Skyrocketing to No. 2 in quarterback fantasy scoring, Brady has accounted for 14 touchdowns in his last four games with a 301-yard average. … Aaron Hernandez has been significantly more productive against defenses that play man-to-man coverage than a zone, and the Bears use the latter for their Cover 2. Keep Hernandez benched this week. ... Deion Branch is more a product of Brady's tear and the Patriots' system than a breakout star at age 31, but he's clearly holding off Brandon Tate as New England's every-down split end. Averaging five catches for 80 yards per game with three touchdowns in the last month, Branch is on the brink of every-week starter status as a WR3. A tough Bears defense isn't enough reason to bench Brady, so it would be hard to argue that it's enough to bench Branch.

Rob Gronkowski's three-score game in Week 10 is shaping up as a fluke. He hasn't found pay dirt since, and is averaging 2.3 catches for 34 yards per game. The Bears aren't tough on tight ends, but you should have better options in the fantasy playoffs. ... Wes Welker is white hot with four TDs in his last three games to complement plenty of catches and yards over the last month. The Bears' Cover 2 zone doesn't do much double teaming, so expect Welker to be open in the slot as Brady's go-to target in the windy, snowy weather. ... Chicago ranks second in the league against the run, but the Pats are moving the ball so successfully that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a strong weekly bet for red-zone scores. Look for plenty of carries considering the conditions. ... Danny Woodhead only had six touches last week and hasn't topped 11 in any game since Week 6. Woodhead is a nice player, but you're kidding yourself if you're expecting any kind of upside.

Denver @ Arizona

Everyone wants to know the fantasy fallout from Josh McDaniels' ouster in Denver, and the most likely outcome is a slight-to-moderate decline in Kyle Orton's passing volume. The Broncos rank fifth in the league in pass attempts, but over the final four games will probably rank somewhere in the middle to bottom half. The ball-control offense always made the most sense in Denver considering the team's inability to stop anyone on defense. Knowshon Moreno is playing like a top-ten NFL running back in his last four games, and he just received about the best news possible heading into a highly favorable Weeks 14-16 schedule. The arrow is pointing sky high.

Though reduced attempts deliver a blow to Orton's yardage upside, he is likely to stay effective because all three of his remaining fantasy games will be played in warm weather, and two of them against bottom-ten pass defenses. The first is the Cardinals, who surrender the sixth highest yards-per-pass attempt average in football and have given up the third most 20-plus yard completions in the league. Orton should be started with confidence in a domed game this weekend. ... With opponents likely to be more wary of Denver's running game with former RBs coach Eric Studesville implementing a run-oriented approach as interim head coach, Brandon Lloyd will remain extremely dangerous on play-action deep balls. You're not going to sit Lloyd in this matchup. ... Both volume dependent in terms of yards and receptions, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal are no longer worth roster spots in 10-team leagues. They're WR5s in 12-teamers.

Larry Fitzgerald hasn't scored in his last two games and now has to deal with a developmental rookie QB making his first start while attempting to get free from Champ Bailey's shadow. Just don't think that Dwayne Bowe's zero against Bailey last week necessarily means the same will happen for Fitzgerald, who is a much better player than Bowe. John Skelton has an absolute rocket, and Fitz will continue to be the focal point of the Cardinals' game plan. Use the negatives as a tiebreaker if you're loaded at wideout, but regardless of circumstance it's extremely difficult to sit a big-play receiver indoors. Ask the guys who chickened out on Calvin Johnson with Drew Stanton last week. ... Just as Nate Burleson became in Detroit, the rest of the Cardinals' receivers are hands off. Steve Breaston has only scored one touchdown all season, anyway.

Back in coach Ken Whisenhunt's doghouse after a Week 12 lost fumble and blown blitz pickup, Beanie Wells saw just three carries last Sunday. He hasn't topped eight touches in any game since Week 8. Wells will be a great post-hype candidate in 2011 leagues, but almost certainly won't be a fantasy option for the rest of this season. ... Of course, Wells' role could grow at any point down the stretch, which makes Tim Hightower just as risky without as much upside considering his inferior talent. Though the Broncos present a favorable matchup for opposing running games, the lack of clarity in Arizona's backfield makes it a clear situation to avoid.




Kansas City @ San Diego

With Matt Cassel (appendectomy) almost certainly out for Week 14, the impact on Kansas City's offense is a hot-button topic. While Brodie Croyle's insertion bodes poorly for the Chiefs' chances of winning considering his career 0-9 record, it's hard to believe that he's going to change much. This will remain a decidedly run-first attack that takes deep shots to Dwayne Bowe. As pointed out by Ryan Forbes of the Fantasy Football Pharmacy this week, Bowe has averaged nearly five catches for a respectable 57 yards with four touchdowns in Croyle's nine starts. And this was before the addition of brilliant offensive mind Charlie Weis or Bowe's trip to Larry Fitzgerald's summer camp. Croyle is one of the NFL's most talented backup quarterbacks, and is likely to keep Bowe afloat in particular, while the rest of the passing game (Dexter McCluster, Tony Moeaki, Verran Tucker) suffers.

Whereas Thomas Jones was essentially the Chiefs' lead runner during the season's first half, the backfield has shifted to Jamaal Charles since. Charles has 82 touches for 559 yards in the last month, compared to Jones' 58 touches for 282 yards. A Chargers run defense feigning stoutness for much of the year was re-exposed last week, surrendering 269 total yards, three TDs, and a 4.85 YPC average to the previously struggling Raiders backs. The Bolts were also gouged for 110 yards, a touchdown, and 4.46 YPC by Knowshon Moreno two weeks prior. San Diego's run defense isn't remotely as tough as its No. 5 ranking claims. While Jones isn't an option as a volume-dependent runner with a decreasing role, Charles will be a top-five running back play the rest of the way. With Cassel out, Charles is a lead-pipe lock to be Kansas City's featured offensive player on Sunday.

Mike Tolbert is averaging 3.47 YPC in the seven games he's received fewer than 16 carries this season, compared to 4.69 in the five he's gotten 16 or more totes. The indication is that Tolbert is a "rhythm" runner -- as many backs are -- who needs a relatively heavy workload to find a groove. It's especially noteworthy this week because Ryan Mathews has been deemed 100 percent, with top beat writer Kevin Acee predicting a significant role for the rookie against K.C. As Tolbert went scoreless with just 53 total yards last week, the Chargers' backfield is shaping up as a fantasy situation to avoid against Kansas City's top-12 defense. Though Tolbert is never a terrible bet for a goal-line score, the Chiefs have surrendered just six rushing touchdowns in 12 games this season.

The Chargers had more success passing on the Chiefs in the team's meeting earlier this year, with Philip Rivers throwing for 298 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. With Vincent Jackson (calf) due back and Antonio Gates (feet) tentatively expected to play, look for the Bolts to take to the air once again. Rivers has had back-to-back slow games, but remains an elite fantasy play against the Chiefs' No. 21 pass defense. ... V-Jax killed fantasy teams the last time he tried to play, but Jackson's rare talent still gives him the most upside of any Chargers pass catcher in this one. ... Malcom Floyd is the safest bet. Healthy again, Floyd played 89 percent of the offensive snaps last week and shouldn't struggle to top 70 yards in sunny San Diego. ... Gates had 76 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 1. You can't bench him if he's active, and he should be.

Miami @ NY Jets

Early in last Monday night's broadcast, ESPN's Jon Gruden claimed that the Jets were "no longer winning despite Mark Sanchez, and are now winning games because of him." I'm not sure the rose-colored analysis could be applied to a single game this season, and certainly not any since September. Sanchez was at his ultimate worst against New England's then-No. 32 pass defense, throwing his ninth, tenth, and eleventh picks to seal a 7:11 TD-to-INT ratio in his last seven starts. Sanchez's below-average arm strength is accentuated by windy, cold weather, and the Jets don't play another game in favorable conditions the rest of the way. He's certainly not an option against Miami's top-five pass defense. ... Braylon Edwards had two brutal drops against the Pats, and two of his targets were picked in one of the worst Monday night performances of the year. It wouldn't be surprising to see him lose playing time to Jerricho Cotchery in two-receiver sets after that one.

Sanchez's struggles bode poorly for Dustin Keller, who's already scoreless with a 38-yard average since Santonio Holmes' return from suspension. The Dolphins aren't a tight end-friendly defense. ... Averaging a 6/87 line with four TDs in five games since becoming a starter, Holmes is a top-15 fantasy receiver every week. He's also likely to see burnable Fins RCB Sean Smith for most of this game. ... LaDainian Tomlinson topped 3.8 yards per carry for the first time since Week 5 against New England, thanks in large part to a first-quarter 14-yard run. Tomlinson remains a better bet than Shonn Greene in PPR leagues, but the opposite is true in non-PPR. Greene has led the Jets in carries in each of the past four games, and also played ahead of Tomlinson in short-yardage situations in Foxboro. Greene had nine totes of four-plus yards, compared to Tomlinson's four.

Particularly with Brian Hartline out, there's no question who Darrelle Revis will cover in this one. Brandon Marshall will get Revis Island treatment in his return from a two-week hamstring injury. Marshall is averaging just 45.2 scoreless yards in his last five appearances, so he should be easy to sit considering the matchup and risk of in-game aggravation. ... Davone Bess is the favorite to lead the Dolphins in receiving Sunday and should be played with confidence as a WR3 in PPR leagues. Bess is a slot receiver, a position the Jets have struggled to cover all season long. Their latest attempt at slot corner had Drew Coleman rotating with rookie Kyle Wilson. Patriots slot man Wes Welker ate up Rex Ryan's defense for 80 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis was productive in last week's matchup with the Jets, but New York still has a top-three run defense that surrenders the second fewest yards per carry in the league. In their early-season matchup with the Jets, neither Ronnie Brown nor Ricky Williams found pay dirt, and each Dolphins back was held under 55 rushing yards. As long as the two are rotating, they're killing each other's fantasy upsides. ... There are plenty of tight end-desperate fantasy owners out there, but Anthony Fasano shouldn't be on their radars despite last week's touchdown. The Jets held Fasano to 14 yards on two catches in Week 3. New York has allowed the second fewest catches to tight ends in the NFL.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Vegas projects this to be Week 14's highest scoring game, so make sure to trot out your Eagles and Cowboys. Some have speculated that Dez Bryant's season-ending injury helps Roy Williams, but that won't be the case. A disappointment waiting to happen, Williams will receive no increase in snaps played, and he's only third to fourth in the pecking order for targets. Look for Jason Witten and Miles Austin to be the primary beneficiaries. Austin, in particular, gets a very strong boost. He led the Cowboys in targets by a wide margin after Bryant's injury last week. ... Jon Kitna's target distribution on the year: Witten -- 49; Austin -- 42; Williams -- 24. ... Witten will play through his ankle sprain against a Philly defense that surrenders the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. You don't need me to tell you that the league's receptions leader at his position is a must-start.

Shutdown CB Asante Samuel's (knee) absence already giving him a boost, Jon Kitna is looking like an increasingly strong fantasy start with poor weather threatening numerous low-end QB1s around the league. Kitna's supporting cast remains explosive without Bryant, and he's playing indoors in a potential shootout. He's a safe bet for two TDs and 225-plus yards. Samuel's loss is difference-making for the Philly defense. ... The Eagles have a slightly above-average run defense, ranking 13th in the league and allowing 4.1 yards per carry. Don't look for 100 more rushing yards from Tashard Choice, but 13-15 carries for 70 and a score would be a reasonable expectation. He'll get any goal-line opportunities. ... Seeing 25 touches to lead the team last week, Felix Jones is still clearly the Cowboys' lead back. He's a better fantasy bet than Choice.

Returning from a Thursday game, the Eagles are 18-1 when Andy Reid has 10 or more days to prepare for an opponent. Reid's featured player Sunday night is easy to guess. Michael Vick will square off with a Dallas defense that has permitted the most passing touchdowns in the NFC while allowing the fourth most yards per pass attempt in football and generating under two sacks per game. Expect a big night from this passing attack. ... DeSean Jackson is scoreless in his last three games, but it's hardly cause for concern. D-Jax will match up with Cowboys LCB Terence Newman in this one. Slow-footed at this point in his career, the 32-year-old Newman will have his hands full with Jackson's speed and quickness. ... Jeremy Maclin is averaging nearly 80 yards per game over the last month. He's an every-week starter in leagues that use three receivers.

Brent Celek is finally coming around with over 50 yards in back-to-back games. In what's fully expected to be a high-scoring affair, Celek comes in as a top-ten tight end play against a Dallas defense that is mediocre in tight end coverage. ... LeSean McCoy is a top-five fantasy back in non-PPR leagues and top-three in PPR. The Cowobys have allowed 10 rushing scores in 12 games, as well as 10 rushing attempts of 20-plus yards. Expect a big play or two from Shady. ... Jason Avant is always a relatively low-upside fantasy bet, but he's worth a look as a WR3 if you're desperate considering the high-scoring projection. Vick likes throwing to Avant in the red zone.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore @ Houston

Any fantasy owner who's made it this far knows how brutal the Texans are in pass coverage. Houston ranks dead last in virtually every pass defense category, including TDs allowed, yards, 40-plus yard completions, and opposing QB rating. In an indoor game, Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin are highly attractive starts. ... Boldin got his season back on track last week against the Steelers, touching up Bryant McFadden & Co. for five catches, 118 yards, and his seventh score of the season. Expect a big-time game from "Q" in prime time. ... Rookie Ed Dickson draws the start in place of Todd Heap (hamstring, out), and makes for an intriguing matchup play against a Texans defense that surrenders the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Dickson is highly athletic, and his Week 13 drop down the left sideline was fluky. He's got great hands.

Derrick Mason has topped 48 yards once in his last six games, bottoming out last week with two catches for 22 scoreless yards. He's worth a look because of the matchup, but don't expect fireworks. Mason remains a low-end WR3. ... The Ravens will not struggle to move the ball, so Ray Rice's Week 13 struggles aren't overly concerning because his day should be filled with scoring opportunities. ... Willis McGahee is averaging seven touches per game dating back to Week 5, and hasn't topped 22 total yards in a game since Week 9. Once an alleged goal-line back, McGahee also has zero rushing TDs since Week 7. He's not a flex option any longer.

Though I'm not calling Matt Schaub a horrible fantasy start, fantasy owners can forget about the theory that the Texans will "have to throw a lot because the Ravens will shut down the run." Not happening. Arian Foster has rolled through opponents with better run defenses than Baltimore's, and the Ravens are arguably stouter in pass defense than on the ground. Only the Chargers and Bears allow fewer yards per pass attempt than Baltimore, and the Ravens' pass rush is catching fire in recent games. Foster continues to be an elite RB1. Ranked just 14th in quarterback fantasy scoring, Schaub is no better than a high-end QB2 considering this difficult matchup.

All that said, Andre Johnson needs to be played with the utmost confidence. Listed as probable on the injury report, Johnson took advantage of his 11-day layoff between Weeks 13 and 14 games by barely practicing during the week. He should be as healthy now as he's been all season entering Monday night. Smallish in the back end, the Ravens lack a corner with enough size to contain Johnson. ... The rest of the Texans' pass catchers are hands off. Joel Dreessen will start this game and rotate with a returning Owen Daniels (hamstring). It's an obvious situation to avoid. ... Kevin Walter has topped 35 yards once since Week 2. ... Jacoby Jones is a part-time player. He played 43.8 percent of the Texans' offensive snaps last week.