Matchups: A WR3 Jolt From Joe

6-foot-3 and 223 pounds with 4.44-4.45 wheels and crazy hops, Joe Webb departed the University of Alabama-Birmingham as the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year. Webb led the nation in quarterback rushing with 1,427 yards as a senior. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry, and 53 of his rushing attempts went for 10-plus yards. Webb also scrambled for 11 touchdowns.

As a passer, Webb completed 59.8 percent for 2,298 yards, 21 scores, and eight interceptions.

Because of his athleticism, size, and monstrous hands (10 3/4 inches), Webb was projected as a receiver by most NFL teams. He practiced at wideout during January's Senior Bowl and dominated some of the most highly-touted defensive backs in the country.

Drafted in the sixth round by the Vikings, Webb spun the ball impressively in rookie camp and was back at his old position by summer ball. He played in four exhibition games, completing 17-of-30 passes (56.7 percent) for 191 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Even more impressively, Webb rushed 11 times for 126 yards (11.5 YPC) and another score.

Fast forward to Week 13. Enamored with Webb's physical ability, the Vikings put him on kickoff returns against the Bills. Webb caught just one kick, but brought it back 30 yards.

Now, with Tarvaris Jackson (toe) on injured reserve and Brett Favre (shoulder, hand) not expected to play Monday night, Joe Webb is slated to be the Vikings' starting quarterback against the Bears.

And Webb has wide receiver eligibility in Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Plenty of factors are working against Webb, of course. He's a rookie making his starting debut against Chicago's top-eight defense, a unit that has surrendered the second fewest passing touchdowns in the league. The expected venue is TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Gophers. Early forecasts have temperatures in the single-digits with sub-zero wind chills.

Working in Webb's favor: His dual-threat skills, a defense that will give him every opportunity to beat them, and next to no film on the first-year passer/runner. Most intriguing from a fantasy perspective is Webb's WR3/flex eligibility. He has more ways to score points than your run-of-the-mill third receiver gamble like Johnny Knox, Robert Meachem, or Ben Obomanu.

For perspective, 23 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL scored 12 or more standard league fantasy points in Week 14. Just 16 of 64 starting wide receivers around the league hit that mark.

Whereas someone like Meachem or Mike Sims-Walker may not even catch a pass this week, Webb is guaranteed touches, some passing yardage, and almost certainly some rushing points. While you're not going to play Webb over Wes Welker or even Brandon Marshall, he's worth a long look in place of less-trustworthy candidates like Derrick Mason and Hines Ward.

Hey, even Jay Feely scored a rushing touchdown last week.

1:00PM ET Games

Buffalo @ Miami

Brandon Marshall returned from his two-week hamstring injury in last Sunday's win over the Jets. The bad news is that Marshall played horribly, dropping two passes and committing a holding penalty. The good news is that Marshall played 93.2 percent of the offensive snaps and caught the game-winning touchdown. In a favorable weather game (70 degrees, 10 percent chance of rain), Marshall is flirting with WR2 status again. ... The Bills rank in the bottom eight in passing scores allowed and sacks, but don't be fooled into thinking Chad Henne is more than a bottom-barrel QB2. Henne has a 2:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last two games and is averaging 4.58 yards per attempt. The third-year passer's development hasn't just stalled. It's taken a lemming-style leap.

Davone Bess hasn't scored since Week 7. Like Henne (5-for-18), Bess can't help but do better than last week's 1/6 line, but he's only a WR3 option in PPR leagues. Bess is definitely someone I'd play Webb over. ... Though Ricky Williams (4.38 YPC) is outplaying Ronnie Brown (3.74 YPC), Brown continues to get the football more. Ronnie has 64 touches in the last month compared to Ricky's 47. The Bills rank dead last in run defense, but neither Dolphins rusher is more than a relatively low-upside flex play. Miami's run blocking hasn't been the same since LT Jake Long tore his shoulder labrum, and RT Vernon Carey's year-ending knee injury is another sizable blow.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has one multi-touchdown game in the last seven weeks, and now faces off with Miami's top-six pass defense. Fins OLB Cameron Wake will pummel Bills OTs Demetrius Bell and Mansfield Wrotto, and only two AFC teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Dolphins. Fitz is a low-end QB2. ... Lee Evans' placement on I.R. ensures that Steve Johnson will dominate Fitzpatrick's targets. Shake off his scoreless 49-yard average since Week 11 and use Johnson as a WR3. He's still a top-12 fantasy wideout on the season, and there aren't many receivers around the league playing in such favorable weather whose only competition for the ball comes from a trio of undrafted rookies (David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Naaman Roosevelt).

In a chain-moving effort, Fred Jackson touched up Cleveland's 23rd-ranked run defense for 112 yards on a season-high 29 carries last week. Jackson's passing-game involvement has taken a hit since C.J. Spiller's return from a hamstring injury, as F-Jax has just two catches in his last two games. Still the heavy favorite for carries and goal-line work, Jackson is worth low-end RB2 consideration even in tough matchups such as this. The Fins' No. 7 run defense allows the third smallest YPC in the league (3.62) and has only given up six rushing touchdowns in 13 games.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Sunday's forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for 60-plus degree temperatures and a 10 percent chance of rain, so passing-game members are safe to use in this one. The evolution of Tampa's has been among the most intriguing in football. Since a slow start, Arrelious Benn has found his groove by making intermittent big plays on limited opportunities since midseason, and then topping out with 122 yards in last week's win over Washington. Defenses have realized that Mike Williams is worthy of double coverage. While it's good news for Josh Freeman that he now has two viable, playmaking wideouts, this particular matchup favors a big game from Williams. The rookie from Syracuse will face off with burnable RCB Nathan Vasher for the majority of Tampa's offensive snaps. Benn will have to deal with Lions top CB Chris Houston on the opposite side.

Benn's emergence is bad news for Kellen Winslow, as both are possession-threat types. Winslow caught the game-winning TD last week, but ultimately saw two targets and wasn't thrown to until the third quarter. ... A conservative offense is Freeman's biggest obstacle, but Detroit gives up the fourth most yards per throw in the NFL. You can't beat the quarterback-friendly environment, so Freeman is worth a look as a desperate QB1. ... Running backs are difficult to bench against the Lions' No. 22 run defense, a unit that has surrendered the fourth most rushing touchdowns in the league. LeGarrette Blount is only a low-end RB2 with one score in his last four games, but he has more upside than options like Ronnie Brown, Fred Jackson, and Cedric Benson. Amid concern that Blount might lose goal-line work to Earnest Graham last week, the rookie received two of the Bucs' three red-zone carries. Graham touched the ball twice all game, and never in the red zone.

Incredibly, Calvin Johnson was targeted 13 times last week and caught just one. Thankfully, he's not facing Green Bay's top-three pass defense anymore. Tampa Bay's crumbling unit has lost FS Cody Grimm, shutdown CB Aqib Talib, and top interior pass rusher Gerald McCoy all to injured reserve in the last month. Megatron may also get back Shaun Hill, who the Lions appear to be pushing to play through a fractured finger. Even if Drew Stanton makes a third straight start, Megatron can be started with confidence. Stanton will have a cleaner pocket against the Buccaneers (30th in sacks), and you couldn't name a more talented receiver in a good-weather game. ... Johnson is about where it ends for Lions pass catchers, though. Nate Burleson hasn't topped 27 yards in Stanton's two starts. With lines of 5/36/0 and 2/14/0, even Brandon Pettigrew is untrustworthy against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the fifth fewest yards in the league to tight ends.

Maurice Morris has predictably cooled off since his two-touchdown Thanksgiving game, failing to find the end zone or top 57 total yards in either week since. He's still a drain on Jahvid Best's start-ability, though. Morris has 23 touches to Best's 24 in the last two games, with the Lions' backfield clearly evolving into an even timeshare. Both backs are on the injury report with toe injuries this week, so look for more of the same at Tampa. Even against a Bucs defense that lost McCoy and ranks 27th against the run, neither Morris nor Best is getting the ball or playing well enough to be more than a low-end flex. Best's yards-per-carry average since Week 8 is 3.24.

Arizona @ Carolina

Despite fair weather in the forecast for Bank of America Stadium, Vegas projects Cards-Panthers as the second lowest scoring game of Week 15. It's a factor that can be used for tiebreakers on borderline starts like Steve Smith, Steve Breaston, and perhaps Tim Hightower. ... The premier play in this one is Jonathan Stewart. "The Daily Show" is on pace for his second monster stretch run in as many seasons, averaging a whopping 6.33 YPC in his last three games. Kick returner Mike Goodson having clearly ceded the backfield to Stewart with just 13 touches to J-Stew's 40 since Week 12, Stewart is approaching elite RB1 status against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against the run and has allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Start 'em.

Jimmy Clausen has struggled so badly that a matchup with Arizona's No. 25 pass defense will go to waste in the fantasy playoffs. Smitty hasn't scored since Week 2. ... David Gettis has been such a non-factor that he hasn't even merited a post-game Rotoworld blurb since Week 12 (when he went catch-less). ... Brandon LaFell had six catches last week, but hasn't topped 40 receiving yards since Week 7. He's playing under 50 percent of the snaps over Carolina's last four games.

Manning the position held by Jacoby Ford in Week 12, Brian Westbrook in Week 13, and James Starks in Week 14 is Tim Hightower as this Sunday's Flavor of the Week. Hightower piled up a bunch of second-half, essentially garbage-time points in the Cardinals' Week 14 rout of Denver with Beanie Wells (stomach virus) sidelined for the final two quarters. Hightower broke off 148 yards on 18 carries, scoring twice in the fourth quarter. This week's matchup is certainly right -- the Panthers rank 27th against the run and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL -- but Wells is back this week and throughout his career Hightower has been more likely to flop than excel in crucial situations (both in real life and fantasy). He's a risky, low-end RB2.

Larry Fitzgerald was shadowed by Champ Bailey all over the field in Week 14, but still managed to bring down six grabs for 72 yards with a rookie quarterback. John Skelton avoided turnovers and Fitz remained the Cards' offensive centerpiece (until Hightower in garbage time), notching double-digit targets for an otherworldly eighth straight week. Carolina plays the pass well, but so does Champ Bailey. Fitzgerald is a rock-solid play. ... Though Skelton did deliver the ball effectively to his top receiver, the rest of Arizona's wideout corps was left hanging as the rookie from Fordham completed just 40.5 percent of his attempts. Safely leave Breaston on the bench this weekend.

6-foot-3 and 223 pounds with 4.44-4.45 wheels and crazy hops, Joe Webb departed the University of Alabama-Birmingham as the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year. Webb led the nation in quarterback rushing with 1,427 yards as a senior. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry, and 53 of his rushing attempts went for 10-plus yards. Webb also scrambled for 11 touchdowns.

As a passer, Webb completed 59.8 percent for 2,298 yards, 21 scores, and eight interceptions.

Because of his athleticism, size, and monstrous hands (10 3/4 inches), Webb was projected as a receiver by most NFL teams. He practiced at wideout during January's Senior Bowl and dominated some of the most highly-touted defensive backs in the country.

Drafted in the sixth round by the Vikings, Webb spun the ball impressively in rookie camp and was back at his old position by summer ball. He played in four exhibition games, completing 17-of-30 passes (56.7 percent) for 191 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Even more impressively, Webb rushed 11 times for 126 yards (11.5 YPC) and another score.

Fast forward to Week 13. Enamored with Webb's physical ability, the Vikings put him on kickoff returns against the Bills. Webb caught just one kick, but brought it back 30 yards.

Now, with Tarvaris Jackson (toe) on injured reserve and Brett Favre (shoulder, hand) not expected to play Monday night, Joe Webb is slated to be the Vikings' starting quarterback against the Bears.

And Webb has wide receiver eligibility in Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Plenty of factors are working against Webb, of course. He's a rookie making his starting debut against Chicago's top-eight defense, a unit that has surrendered the second fewest passing touchdowns in the league. The expected venue is TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Gophers. Early forecasts have temperatures in the single-digits with sub-zero wind chills.

Working in Webb's favor: His dual-threat skills, a defense that will give him every opportunity to beat them, and next to no film on the first-year passer/runner. Most intriguing from a fantasy perspective is Webb's WR3/flex eligibility. He has more ways to score points than your run-of-the-mill third receiver gamble like Johnny Knox, Robert Meachem, or Ben Obomanu.

For perspective, 23 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL scored 12 or more standard league fantasy points in Week 14. Just 16 of 64 starting wide receivers around the league hit that mark.

Whereas someone like Meachem or Mike Sims-Walker may not even catch a pass this week, Webb is guaranteed touches, some passing yardage, and almost certainly some rushing points. While you're not going to play Webb over Wes Welker or even Brandon Marshall, he's worth a long look in place of less-trustworthy candidates like Derrick Mason and Hines Ward.

Hey, even Jay Feely scored a rushing touchdown last week.

1:00PM ET Games

Buffalo @ Miami

Brandon Marshall returned from his two-week hamstring injury in last Sunday's win over the Jets. The bad news is that Marshall played horribly, dropping two passes and committing a holding penalty. The good news is that Marshall played 93.2 percent of the offensive snaps and caught the game-winning touchdown. In a favorable weather game (70 degrees, 10 percent chance of rain), Marshall is flirting with WR2 status again. ... The Bills rank in the bottom eight in passing scores allowed and sacks, but don't be fooled into thinking Chad Henne is more than a bottom-barrel QB2. Henne has a 2:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last two games and is averaging 4.58 yards per attempt. The third-year passer's development hasn't just stalled. It's taken a lemming-style leap.

Davone Bess hasn't scored since Week 7. Like Henne (5-for-18), Bess can't help but do better than last week's 1/6 line, but he's only a WR3 option in PPR leagues. Bess is definitely someone I'd play Webb over. ... Though Ricky Williams (4.38 YPC) is outplaying Ronnie Brown (3.74 YPC), Brown continues to get the football more. Ronnie has 64 touches in the last month compared to Ricky's 47. The Bills rank dead last in run defense, but neither Dolphins rusher is more than a relatively low-upside flex play. Miami's run blocking hasn't been the same since LT Jake Long tore his shoulder labrum, and RT Vernon Carey's year-ending knee injury is another sizable blow.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has one multi-touchdown game in the last seven weeks, and now faces off with Miami's top-six pass defense. Fins OLB Cameron Wake will pummel Bills OTs Demetrius Bell and Mansfield Wrotto, and only two AFC teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Dolphins. Fitz is a low-end QB2. ... Lee Evans' placement on I.R. ensures that Steve Johnson will dominate Fitzpatrick's targets. Shake off his scoreless 49-yard average since Week 11 and use Johnson as a WR3. He's still a top-12 fantasy wideout on the season, and there aren't many receivers around the league playing in such favorable weather whose only competition for the ball comes from a trio of undrafted rookies (David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Naaman Roosevelt).

In a chain-moving effort, Fred Jackson touched up Cleveland's 23rd-ranked run defense for 112 yards on a season-high 29 carries last week. Jackson's passing-game involvement has taken a hit since C.J. Spiller's return from a hamstring injury, as F-Jax has just two catches in his last two games. Still the heavy favorite for carries and goal-line work, Jackson is worth low-end RB2 consideration even in tough matchups such as this. The Fins' No. 7 run defense allows the third smallest YPC in the league (3.62) and has only given up six rushing touchdowns in 13 games.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Sunday's forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for 60-plus degree temperatures and a 10 percent chance of rain, so passing-game members are safe to use in this one. The evolution of Tampa's has been among the most intriguing in football. Since a slow start, Arrelious Benn has found his groove by making intermittent big plays on limited opportunities since midseason, and then topping out with 122 yards in last week's win over Washington. Defenses have realized that Mike Williams is worthy of double coverage. While it's good news for Josh Freeman that he now has two viable, playmaking wideouts, this particular matchup favors a big game from Williams. The rookie from Syracuse will face off with burnable RCB Nathan Vasher for the majority of Tampa's offensive snaps. Benn will have to deal with Lions top CB Chris Houston on the opposite side.

Benn's emergence is bad news for Kellen Winslow, as both are possession-threat types. Winslow caught the game-winning TD last week, but ultimately saw two targets and wasn't thrown to until the third quarter. ... A conservative offense is Freeman's biggest obstacle, but Detroit gives up the fourth most yards per throw in the NFL. You can't beat the quarterback-friendly environment, so Freeman is worth a look as a desperate QB1. ... Running backs are difficult to bench against the Lions' No. 22 run defense, a unit that has surrendered the fourth most rushing touchdowns in the league. LeGarrette Blount is only a low-end RB2 with one score in his last four games, but he has more upside than options like Ronnie Brown, Fred Jackson, and Cedric Benson. Amid concern that Blount might lose goal-line work to Earnest Graham last week, the rookie received two of the Bucs' three red-zone carries. Graham touched the ball twice all game, and never in the red zone.

Incredibly, Calvin Johnson was targeted 13 times last week and caught just one. Thankfully, he's not facing Green Bay's top-three pass defense anymore. Tampa Bay's crumbling unit has lost FS Cody Grimm, shutdown CB Aqib Talib, and top interior pass rusher Gerald McCoy all to injured reserve in the last month. Megatron may also get back Shaun Hill, who the Lions appear to be pushing to play through a fractured finger. Even if Drew Stanton makes a third straight start, Megatron can be started with confidence. Stanton will have a cleaner pocket against the Buccaneers (30th in sacks), and you couldn't name a more talented receiver in a good-weather game. ... Johnson is about where it ends for Lions pass catchers, though. Nate Burleson hasn't topped 27 yards in Stanton's two starts. With lines of 5/36/0 and 2/14/0, even Brandon Pettigrew is untrustworthy against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the fifth fewest yards in the league to tight ends.

Maurice Morris has predictably cooled off since his two-touchdown Thanksgiving game, failing to find the end zone or top 57 total yards in either week since. He's still a drain on Jahvid Best's start-ability, though. Morris has 23 touches to Best's 24 in the last two games, with the Lions' backfield clearly evolving into an even timeshare. Both backs are on the injury report with toe injuries this week, so look for more of the same at Tampa. Even against a Bucs defense that lost McCoy and ranks 27th against the run, neither Morris nor Best is getting the ball or playing well enough to be more than a low-end flex. Best's yards-per-carry average since Week 8 is 3.24.

Arizona @ Carolina

Despite fair weather in the forecast for Bank of America Stadium, Vegas projects Cards-Panthers as the second lowest scoring game of Week 15. It's a factor that can be used for tiebreakers on borderline starts like Steve Smith, Steve Breaston, and perhaps Tim Hightower. ... The premier play in this one is Jonathan Stewart. "The Daily Show" is on pace for his second monster stretch run in as many seasons, averaging a whopping 6.33 YPC in his last three games. Kick returner Mike Goodson having clearly ceded the backfield to Stewart with just 13 touches to J-Stew's 40 since Week 12, Stewart is approaching elite RB1 status against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against the run and has allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Start 'em.

Jimmy Clausen has struggled so badly that a matchup with Arizona's No. 25 pass defense will go to waste in the fantasy playoffs. Smitty hasn't scored since Week 2. ... David Gettis has been such a non-factor that he hasn't even merited a post-game Rotoworld blurb since Week 12 (when he went catch-less). ... Brandon LaFell had six catches last week, but hasn't topped 40 receiving yards since Week 7. He's playing under 50 percent of the snaps over Carolina's last four games.

Manning the position held by Jacoby Ford in Week 12, Brian Westbrook in Week 13, and James Starks in Week 14 is Tim Hightower as this Sunday's Flavor of the Week. Hightower piled up a bunch of second-half, essentially garbage-time points in the Cardinals' Week 14 rout of Denver with Beanie Wells (stomach virus) sidelined for the final two quarters. Hightower broke off 148 yards on 18 carries, scoring twice in the fourth quarter. This week's matchup is certainly right -- the Panthers rank 27th against the run and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL -- but Wells is back this week and throughout his career Hightower has been more likely to flop than excel in crucial situations (both in real life and fantasy). He's a risky, low-end RB2.

Larry Fitzgerald was shadowed by Champ Bailey all over the field in Week 14, but still managed to bring down six grabs for 72 yards with a rookie quarterback. John Skelton avoided turnovers and Fitz remained the Cards' offensive centerpiece (until Hightower in garbage time), notching double-digit targets for an otherworldly eighth straight week. Carolina plays the pass well, but so does Champ Bailey. Fitzgerald is a rock-solid play. ... Though Skelton did deliver the ball effectively to his top receiver, the rest of Arizona's wideout corps was left hanging as the rookie from Fordham completed just 40.5 percent of his attempts. Safely leave Breaston on the bench this weekend.



New Orleans @ Baltimore

The Saints have 30-plus points in five straight games, a streak that won't necessarily end against a Ravens defense that served up 28 to Houston last week. The M & T Bank Stadium forecast calls for no rain, as well as relatively favorable temps (37-40 degrees) and light wind (11MPH). This should not be a weather-affected game. ... Drew Brees has 10 touchdowns in his last four games, just once dropping below 313 passing yards during that span. The Ravens only rank 14th against the pass and have given up a ton of big plays -- Brees' specialty. ... Avoid Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson in the fantasy playoffs. Meachem had 106 yards and a score in chilly Cincinnati two weeks ago. He proceeded to go catch-less against the Rams in the Edward Jones Dome last Sunday. It's the untrustworthy nature of Saints wideouts not named Colston.

Marques Colston continued his torrid pace with two more touchdowns in Week 14. With Dwayne Bowe and Roddy White cooling off and Greg Jennings apparently now playing with Matt Flynn, Colston is arguably the hottest receiver in the NFL. ... Lance Moore has two TDs in his last three games, but has only topped 43 yards once in the last month. He's a low-end WR3 with little upside, and a serious risk for a clunker if he doesn't find pay dirt. ... The Saints' backfield should be easy to avoid this week in a matchup with Baltimore's top-eight run defense, a unit that has surrendered just five rushing touchdowns all year. Chris Ivory has a bum hamstring, Pierre Thomas' offensive role is completely up in the air as he now takes on kick returns, and Reggie Bush hasn't put a dent in the box score since returning from a fractured fibula three weeks ago.

Joe Flacco ranks eighth in fantasy quarterback scoring with two or more touchdown passes in six of his last eight games, but he'll be hard pressed to improve on the latter statistic against a stout New Orleans pass defense. The unit has allowed an NFL-low eight passing touchdowns through 13 games and ranks fifth overall in the league. If the Ravens are going to find the end zone offensively, it's most likely to happen on the ground. ... Owners should avoid chasing Derrick Mason's Week 14 production into Week 15, because the Ravens aren't playing the Texans anymore. He's merely a low-end WR3. ... With Mason doing the bulk of the damage at Houston, Anquan Boldin took a three-catch, 41-yard backseat. The stats say Boldin is barely a matchup play at this point, and this isn't a good one. Boldin has one game over 50 yards in his last six.

Ray Rice has struggled for much of the season, as his fantasy owners know. It's mostly due to play in the front five, and the Ravens conceded as much by reshuffling the right side of their offensive line prior to last week's overtime victory. The game was not won on the ground, though, as Rice and Willis McGahee plodded their way to a combined 2.65 YPC average on 23 totes. With just one touchdown since Week 5, it's probably time to admit the obvious: Ray Rice is only a middle-of-the-road RB2. You're not going to bench him for flier-type fantasy plays, however, and at least he's got a fairly favorable matchup with New Orleans' No. 16 run defense. The Saints allow 4.26 yards per carry with 12 rushing scores against -- tied for the tenth most in football.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

As poorly as Peyton Manning played in Weeks 9-13, he got himself together with 319 yards, a 2:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 71.4 completion rate, and 9.1 YPA average (his second best all year) last week at Tennessee. And Manning couldn't ask for a better Week 16 matchup than the Jaguars indoors at home. He fried Jacksonville for 352 yards and two scores at their place in Week 4, and Jack Del Rio's team has played musical chairs in the secondary ever since. The Jags rank 28th against the pass, give up the most yards per throw in the NFL, and don't rush the passer well. Manning is the best quarterback play in fantasy this week. ... Reggie Wayne worked over Jags RCB Derek Cox for a 15/196 line in the aforementioned Week 4 meeting. Del Rio refuses to move Rashean Mathis away from left cornerback, so Wayne can expect to see plenty of Cox again this Sunday.

Pierre Garcon was hurt in Week 4, but has at least five catches in five straight games and three scores in his last two. He's earned a WR3 start, and the matchup indoors locks him in. ... Jacob Tamme's snaps dropped in Week 14 due to nagging injuries and ball-control second-half offense. He's had a long week to recover, however, and should be played with confidence against a Jags team with the worst safeties in football. Only three defenses have allowed more yards to tight ends. ... Austin Collie (concussions) is due back, immediately recouping WR3 value. Error-prone rookie Blair White will become bench fodder, in both real life and fantasy. It's great news for the Colts' offense. ... The Colts' running game is best left avoided. It's a decidedly pass-first team, and Donald Brown just isn't an effective rusher. Javarris James needs goal-line scores to matter.

With six straight 100-plus rushing yard games, Maurice Jones-Drew is the hottest running back in the NFL. He also historically owns the Colts. MJD has 12 all-purpose touchdowns in nine career meetings with Indianapolis, with averages of 128.2 total yards a game and 5.35 yards per carry. The Colts are defending the run as poorly as they ever have in Jones-Drew's career. ... MoJo's success has adversely affected David Garrard, however, as Jacksonville's offense has become extremely run heavy. Garrard hasn't topped 162 passing yards since Week 11, and now squares off with Indianapolis' top-eight pass defense. Fantasy playoff owners should look for more upside.

Mike Sims-Walker has cleared 50 yards once since Week 2, and went catch-less in the Jaguars' early-season meeting with Indianapolis despite being 100 percent. He's a poor WR3. ... With MSW in the lineup and the Jags' offensive philosophy steered away from passing, Mike Thomas is averaging 25.7 yards in his last three games. He didn't have a catch in Week 14. ... The Colts have defended tight ends well, but Marcedes Lewis has earned a weekly start by ranking third in fantasy points at his position. Only Antonio Gates has more receiving touchdowns. Lewis also found the end zone against Indianapolis in Week 4. ... Don't overhype Rashad Jennings' three-game scoring streak. Jennings hasn't topped 10 carries during it, and only had five last week.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

38-40 degree temps and 9-10 MPH winds shouldn't affect passing for either club, but injuries in New York's receiver corps certainly will. Flanker/slot man Steve Smith is done for the season, and Mario Manningham is pushing to play through a nagging hip flexor strain. Therefore, two of the Giants' top three wideouts are either out for the game or less than 100 percent. Look for a run-first offense that sets up deep shots to Hakeem Nicks in a strategy similar to the Kansas City Chiefs'. Manningham is likely to act as a decoy, while Eli Manning's pass attempts ideally stay in the sub-30 range. This could change if the Eagles rack up a ton of points and Manning is forced to keep up, but defensive coordinator Perry Fewell did a respectable job of keeping Michael Vick in check four weeks ago, and that game was in Philadelphia. Particularly with Eagles shutdown CB Asante Samuel (knee) expected back, Manning is a low-end QB1 play with limited upside.

Nicks typically avoids Samuel's coverage when the Giants play the Eagles because Nicks is a left-side receiver and Samuel is a defensive left-side cornerback. In other words, Manningham will likely see the majority of Samuel. Nicks is a must-start after hauling in seven balls for 96 yards in last week's win over Minnesota. ... They're both possession pass catchers, so Kevin Boss gets the biggest bump from Smith's injury. Boss tied for the team lead with nine targets in Week 14, and no team in the league gives up more fantasy points to tight ends. ... Forget about the Giants ever having a lead back. It's an even two-man committee, and Brandon Jacobs isn't going anywhere with an 8.50 yards-per-carry average in his last three games, as well as a 6.08 average on the season. Jacobs is the superior play in non-PPR leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw gets the nod in PPR.

I mentioned that Fewell contained Vick in Week 11 Giants-Eagles. DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant each had end-zone drops in that game, turning a could-be monster effort into a modest one. Well, at least by Vick's standards. Throwing for 258 yards and running for another 34 with a rushing score, Vick still registered 19.72 standard league points (depending how you're penalized for one lost fumble). Vick is the second best fantasy QB play in Week 15, behind only Peyton Manning. ... LeSean McCoy has at least 100 total yards and/or a touchdown in every single game since Week 6, and he touched up the Giants for 140 all-purpose yards, a TD, and a 7.9 yards-per-carry average in Week 11. The No. 4 player in all of fantasy, McCoy is an obvious must-start.

Jackson's foot is not a concern, and there are only one or two other receivers in the NFL capable of four-catch, 210-yard games in their entire careers. Jackson had one just last week. Start 'em. ... Jeremy Maclin dropped 120 yards and nine receptions on the G-Men in Week 11 and is the No. 13 overall receiver in fantasy football. Start 'em. ... Avant has one touchdown all year and 22 yards combined in his last two games. Sit 'em. ... Brent Celek's role appeared to be growing with two consecutive games of 50-plus yards in Weeks 12-13, only to bottom out with no catches on two targets in Week 14. You should be able to do better in the fantasy playoffs, particularly against a Giants defense that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

It's not a huge concern because he's second in the league in running back scoring, but Peyton Hillis has shown a tendency to fade in second halves of games, ostensibly due to monster workloads (27.3 touches per game since Week 7). In the last five weeks, Hillis is averaging 4.96 yards a carry in the first two quarters, but just 3.06 after intermission. It's probably something the Browns should look into this offseason. Regardless, Hillis is a top-five play against a Bengals run defense that ranks 24th in the NFL, and serves up 4.59 YPC to go with a rushing score per game. Worth noting: Hillis averages 126.4 total yards per game with five touchdowns in Colt McCoy's five 2010 starts. He's at 110.5 total yards per game in Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace's starts.

In Week 14, Ben Watson let down owners with a third straight miserable follow-up game on the heels of a big one. Watson has been consistent this year, except when he tops 62 yards the week prior. He looks safer against a Bengals defense reeling in the deep middle. They've lost their top two free safeties to I.R. since Week 11, and may now be forced to turn to coverage nightmare Reggie Nelson. ... McCoy's anticipated return hurts deep threat Mohamed Massaquoi. McCoy can move the ball more efficiently than Delhomme by avoiding turnovers and picking up first downs, but the weak-armed rookie won't threaten defenses deep. Especially not in the chilly 'Nati.

Chad Ochocinco is dealing with bone spurs in his ankle, an injury that will likely require offseason cleanup surgery. Though he's seemingly passed Terrell Owens as the Bengals' top receiver over the last two weeks, Ocho has a history of ankle problems and had just three grabs for a scoreless 59 yards in the Bengals' Week 4 meeting with Cleveland. He's a dicey WR3. ... The same goes for Owens, whose head seems to be out of it coming off a two-drop, 22-yard game. T.O. is a better fantasy bet than Ocho and has been all year, but he's not the lock-it-up fantasy play he was in Weeks 1-11. ... Missing all of last week's practices had plenty to do with it, but Jermaine Gresham only played four snaps in Week 14 against Pittsburgh. Hopefully, you can do better.

I could give you some stats to make Carson Palmer's matchup look good, but he has 10 interceptions in his last five games and just three passing touchdowns in his last three. Palmer is only an option in two-quarterback leagues. ... The underrated Cleveland run defense held Cedric Benson to 60 scoreless yards on 15 carries in the teams' early-season meeting, and CedBen is averaging 2.39 YPC on his last 46 rushing attempts. Though he's never a terrible bet for a goal-line score, here's hoping you have running backs playing better for your fantasy playoff lineup.



Houston @ Tennessee

Vegas projects Texans-Titans as Week 15's second highest scoring game, so you're likely in good shape if you own studs in this one. It all begins with No. 1 fantasy player Arian Foster, of course. Again proving his matchup-proof mettle, Foster posted 125 total yards and averaged 5.0 YPC against Baltimore's top-eight run defense in Week 14. Though Tennessee is better than its No. 21 ranking indicates, the Titans lost two of their top defensive tackles this week (Tony Brown -- injured reserve; Jovan Haye -- concussion). In Week 12, Foster blew through Chuck Cecil's defense for 218 total yards. ... Despite the Texans' pre-game intentions of using Owen Daniels in a rotation with Joel Dreessen in his Week 14 return from a hamstring injury, Daniels wound up with 73 percent of the snaps while setting season highs in targets (11) and yards (91). Tennessee has allowed the second most yardage to tight ends this year. Daniels is an elite TE1 again.

Despite a season-long high ankle sprain, the beast that is Andre Johnson ranks sixth among receivers in fantasy points. He has at least 140 yards in three of his last five games. Johnson has owned Cortland Finnegan throughout their careers, and not just in the boxing ring. ... Jacoby Jones has scored in two straight contests, but is still playing behind Kevin Walter and needed 62 Matt Schaub throws to manage 52 yards in Week 14. Jones' big-play ability is always enticing, but so is Robert Meachem's. And Danario Alexander's. And Jacoby Ford's. ... Walter has one touchdown since Week 3. At least Jones has upside. ... Schaub should be good for a pair of TDs and 250-plus yards in this favorable-weather game against Tennessee's No. 26 pass defense.

Houston lost its best defender this week when Mario Williams was placed on I.R. with a sports hernia. Though Mario is best known for his pass rush, the 6'6/295-pound end's loss is likely to be felt just as much in run defense, as the downgrade to 255-pound speed rusher Mark Anderson is considerable. It's all good news for Chris Johnson, who got his season back on track by lighting up the Colts for 179 total yards and a score. Coming off a long week after a Thursday game, Johnson should dominate this depleted front seven. ... Bo Scaife hasn't topped 53 yards all year, and his two TDs in Week 14 were undoubtedly fluky considering they were his only catches of the game and second and third scores of the season. Still, you can't beat the matchup against a Texans defense that serves up the most fantasy points in the AFC. He's a fine desperation play.

Behind only Andre Johnson, Kenny Britt is the second best fantasy receiver in a warm-weather game that projects as the second highest scoring of the week. Add in a matchup with Houston's No. 32 pass defense, and he's a top-15 wideout play for Week 15. ... You already know it, but Randy Moss is totally off the fantasy radar. He played 16 snaps last week. ... Nate Washington hasn't scored in over a month and is averaging 32.6 yards a game in his last three. With Damian Williams' role set to increase at Washington's expense, he isn't even an option in this matchup.

Washington @ Dallas

Indoors against the LaRon Landry-less Redskins' No. 29 pass defense, Jon Kitna is going to be awfully hard to sit unless you have one of this week's top 7-8 QBs. Refer to Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling's rankings for those. (Note: I'd certainly play Kitna over David Garrard or Joe Flacco.) Kitna has ten all-purpose touchdowns in his last five games, and is quietly racking up valuable rushing yards on a weekly basis. ... Owners need to look past Miles Austin's slow 4-5 weeks and play him with confidence against the Redskins indoors. A lot has changed since, but Austin worked Washington for a 10/146/1 line earlier this season, and Kitna is running out of receiving options with Roy Williams' (groin) availability in doubt. Austin is still an elite play.

Jason Witten has the second most tight end points in fantasy football, and like Austin is a big beneficiary from Williams, Kevin Ogletree, and Dez Bryant's recent injuries. Witten is averaging eight catches for 70 yards with three touchdowns in his last three games. ... Marion Barber (calf) is tentatively expected to play, taking the life out of Tashard Choice's spot start-ability. Coach Jason Garrett indicated this week that he fully expects Barber to have an offensive role, and none would suit him better than goal-line specialist. MB3 is obviously hands-off in fantasy leagues, and his return pushes Choice into the same category. ... Felix Jones will still be the clear lead runner, and last week's three-yard touchdown suggests that he's not entirely out of the mix for red-zone carries. Dating back to Week 9, Jones is averaging 19 touches per game. He's a high-end RB2 against an Albert Haynesworth-less Skins defense permitting a league-most 4.88 yards per carry.

Coming off last week's 172-yard destruction of the Bucs in his return from a five-week hamstring injury, Ryan Torain is back on the radar as an RB2. He's averaging 110.6 total yards per game in the five weeks he's gotten at least 16 touches, to go with four touchdowns and a season average of 4.90 yards per carry. There have been "reports" that he lost goal-line work to Keiland Williams last week, but Torain actually got five of the Skins' eight red-zone carries in the game, including one at the Bucs' two-yard line on the second-to-last play from scrimmage. Don't expect numbers quite like last week's (Dallas' run defense is better than Tampa's), but Torain is a better RB2 than someone like Marshawn Lynch, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, or even Tim Hightower.

UPDATE: Comcast SportsNet Washington reported Friday morning that Rex Grossman will start at quarterback for the Redskins. Upgrade the Cowboys' fantasy defense, which was already looking like a good play with Donovan McNabb under center. Grossman will hurt the causes of Torain, Santana Moss, and Chris Cooley.

Dallas usually presents a friendly matchup for quarterbacks, but the Skins have made it clear that Donovan McNabb will be on a short leash due both to balky hamstrings and performance. Ranked 20th among fantasy quarterbacks, he's barely a QB2. ... Santana Moss got himself back in order with seven catches for 82 yards and a touchdown last week. Despite the potential quarterback change, Moss has upside as a WR3. Quietly, he's eighth in the NFL in receptions. ... Chris Cooley met with the coaching staff this week to beg for more catches, a tactic that often works in the player's favor. He's never a good bet for a touchdown, but Cooley should deliver 5-6 grabs for 55-70 solid yards. ... Anthony Armstrong has found pay dirt just twice all season and would suffer the most if McNabb was pulled in-game for Rex Grossman. Armstrong is a WR4/5 this weekend.

Kansas City @ St. Louis

Matt Cassel is expected to start Sunday, just 10 days removed from an appendectomy. While it's good news for K.C. in that Cassel gives Steve Spagnuolo's defense something other than the run game to account for, the still-recovering quarterback won't be a top-15 fantasy option. Thursday practice watchers noticed Cassel struggling to contort his body, and the Chiefs won't put him in situations where Cassel is at risk of big hits. Sit Cassel, and perhaps consider him in Week 16 against the Titans if you're still scuffling for options. ... The Rams are getting killed by opposing No. 1 receivers recently, so with Cassel back Dwayne Bowe should be in lineups in the passing-friendly confines of the Edward Jones Dome. Opposing No. 1s have four TDs against St. Louis in the last three weeks, and no enemy No. 1 has under 61 yards in the Rams' last seven games.

A Week 14 shutout loss with Brodie Croyle under center shouldn't dissuade Jamaal Charles from starting their top-ten fantasy back. Highly susceptible to long runs -- Charles' bread and butter -- St. Louis' run defense is serving up 4.49 yards per carry and the eighth most 20-plus yard rushing attempts in the league. For Charles, there were also positive signs to glean from last week's clunker. Thomas Jones continued to be phased out of the offense with just three carries (for one yard), and Charles led the backfield in touches for a fifth straight week. Jones is averaging a miserable 3.17 yards per carry dating back to Week 8, so he's certainly not making a case for an increased workload. It's scary to think how fast Charles will look indoors on turf. He's confidently our No. 9 running back this week. ... An extremely run-heavy game plan is likely from the Chiefs, so avoid pass catchers behind Bowe. Tony Moeaki and Dexter McCluster should be benched.

Sam Bradford has scuffled in back-to-back games, compiling a 0:3 TD pass-to-interception ratio in two domed matchups with Arizona and New Orleans. The Chiefs are better in pass defense than their 22nd ranking indicates, but there's little sense in starting a struggling rookie quarterback in fantasy football. ... Perhaps because he's wearing down late in the year, generously-listed (5'11/186) slot man Danny Amendola has 32 scoreless yards combined in his last two games. Only playing 54.6 percent of St. Louis' offensive snaps, Amendola is no longer a WR3 option in any format. Look for more upside. ... Brandon Gibson also lacks a high ceiling, but he's at least been consistently mediocre with 54-plus receiving yards or a touchdown in five of his last six. He's a low-end WR3.

Danario Alexander has yet to top 23 offensive snaps in any game this season. For comparison's sake, Laurent Robinson hasn't played fewer than 50 since Week 6. Alexander can't be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. ... Whereas Bradford has come back to earth in the last two games, Steven Jackson has strung together perhaps his best two performances all season. Benefiting from the absence of Kenneth Darby (cracked ribs) in passing situations, Jackson tacked four catches for 38 yards onto a 6.0 yards-per-carry average against the Saints last week. The Chiefs only have a slightly above-average run defense, ranking 15th overall and serving up 4.28 yards a carry.

4:05PM ET Game

Atlanta @ Seattle

The return of NT Colin Cole from a high ankle sprain in Week 14 was supposed to spark Seattle's run defense. 49ers fill-in backs Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook still combined for 178 total yards, though, as San Francisco manhandled the Seahawks in all phases. The Falcons should be able to control this matchup with Michael Turner, who is coming off his fifth 100-plus yard rushing game in his last seven tries. The Seahawks rank 20th against the run and are giving up a rushing score per game. ... Though Tony Gonzalez's reception and yardage totals have underwhelmed all year, he's been the Falcons' primary red-zone target of late. The Seahawks are fairly stingy against tight ends, but Gonzalez will be a good bet for touchdowns going forward.

The Seahawks allowed Alex Smith to throw for 255 yards and three touchdowns last week, so it's scary to think how successful Matt Ryan should be against the NFL's No. 30 pass defense. According to Pro Football Focus, supposed Seattle top CB Marcus Trufant has been burned for three touchdowns in his last five games while RCB Kelly Jennings has surrendered three TDs in his last four. Though Ryan probably won't need more than 30 attempts to beat the Seahawks, he should average enough yards per throw to compensate. In this matchup, he should also be able to throw for a pair of scores. ... Roddy White is scoreless since Week 10, but is still averaging 7.25 catches per game during that span. He's an obvious elite play against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Collapsing down the stretch as he usually does, Matt Hasselbeck has ten turnovers in his last three games. While Hasselbeck isn't a standard league fantasy option regardless, his struggles bode poorly for the returns of Mike Williams (foot) and Ben Obomanu (hand) from injuries. Big Mike is obviously the more desirable fantasy play of the two, but neither is better than a low-end WR3. Williams has scored just one touchdown all season and ranks 54th among fantasy receivers. ... Obomanu is second in line for targets in a struggling passing attack. It's not a formula for much fantasy production. There are at least 35 better fantasy receiver bets this week.

The Seahawks will use their ninth different offensive line combination this week, making the sledding even tougher for an already-struggling Marshawn Lynch. Lynch unsurprisingly came back down to earth following his three-touchdown game in Week 13, averaging a scoreless 2.9 yards per carry against San Francisco in Week 14. The Falcons have allowed just six rushing scores in 13 games. ... Justin Forsett oddly played just 17 snaps last week, his second fewest all year, as Lynch took on a bigger role on passing downs. Forsett isn't a fantasy option.



4:15PM ET Games

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh

Many Jets and Steelers fantasy owners have expressed concern about participants in this game, and for good reason. Vegas projects it as the lowest scoring of Week 15, with each side sporting a top-four defense. Both also rank in the bottom six in points allowed. The Jets' passing game behind Santonio Holmes should be avoided, in particular. The Heinz Field high is 22 degrees with scattered snow showers, and an already struggling Mark Sanchez's weak arm makes for a poor fit in non-ideal conditions. ... The Jets keyed on increasing a struggling Dustin Keller's involvement in last week's loss to Miami, but it didn't pay off. Despite a season-high 12 targets, Keller managed 34 yards on three catches with two drops. He still hasn't scored since Week 4. Pittsburgh isn't generous to tight ends, so it's safe to sit Keller if you have someone like Owen Daniels in relief.

Braylon Edwards hasn't scored since Week 11, and is averaging 25.3 yards per game since. He's a WR4 in the final two fantasy weeks. ... Santonio Holmes has cooled off in his last three games, but I don't agree with Rosenthal and Wesseling that he should be out of the top-20 receivers this week. Steelers RCB Ike Taylor will be on Holmes for most of this one, and Holmes knows Taylor well from their days on the Pittsburgh practice field. With a massive edge in athleticism, Holmes should run circles around Taylor. ... We've seen time and time again this season that running backs should be avoided like the plague when they face Pittsburgh. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene are no exception, particularly without top run-blocker RT Damien Woody (knee).

Benefiting from another favorable matchup, Hines Ward turned in his second 100-plus yard game in three weeks against Bengals fill-in LCB Jonathan Wade's soft coverage last Sunday. The sledding gets more difficult this week against the Jets' top-nine pass defense, a unit surrendering the fourth fewest yards per pass attempt in the league. Darrelle Revis is more physical than Antonio Cromartie, and would therefore probably be the favorite to shadow Ward while Cromartie stays on deep threat Mike Wallace. Wallace remains the better fantasy option, averaging 91.5 yards compared to Ward's 45.5 in the last six games. ... Heath Miller is not expected to play after suffering a setback in his recovery from a concussion. It's not a big loss for the fantasy world.

Darrelle Revis tweaked his hamstring Thursday, which is plenty of reason to start Ben Roethlisberger over bottom-barrel backups like David Garrard and Kerry Collins. Though Revis is expected to play, it's worth recalling that he was a shell of himself while trying to play through a bum hammy earlier this season, getting burned all over the place. ... Rashard Mendenhall is a dicier play considering recent performance, matchup, and this game's low-scoring likelihood. His offensive line crumbling, Mendenhall is averaging 3.34 YPC in the last month with no scores in his last two games. The Jets have the third best run defense in the NFL, allowing the second fewest yards per carry in football. A misnomer in the fantasy playoffs: "Play the guys who got you here." No. Play the guys who give you the best chance to win. I'd play Jonathan Stewart over him.

Denver @ Oakland

With the firing of throw-happy coach Josh McDaniels and collapsing play of Kyle Orton, Denver's passing game has become a fantasy situation to avoid at the worst possible time. Orton has been the NFL's worst quarterback over the last two weeks (even Mark Sanchez and Jimmy Clausen have given their teams better chances to win), and was unable to uncork passes further than five yards downfield due to a "sore arm" and "sore ribs" in Wednesday and Thursday's practices. The Broncos may not make anything official until just before game time, but it appears Tim Tebow could make his first NFL start. ... Brandon Lloyd's production has unsurprisingly dipped along with Orton's, and Lloyd plays on the same side that typically squares off with Raiders RCB Nnamdi Asomugha. Such was the case in Raiders-Broncos Week 7, as Lloyd was held to one reception. The completion didn't take place until there were under seven minutes left in a 59-14 blowout.

More bad news for passing: The Oakland Tribune earlier this week predicted a "major weather event" at the Oakland Coliseum Sunday, and the forecast as of Thursday called for a 70 percent chance of showers. Rain doesn't always suffocate quarterbacks, but it's another reason to stay away. Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney definitely aren't on the radar. ... Knowshon Moreno should still be the centerpiece of Broncos interim coach Eric Studesville's Week 15 game plan. Set to take on Oakland's No. 26 run defense, Moreno is averaging 136.4 total yards with four scores in his last five games. He should safely be able to expect 25-plus touches on Sunday.

The Raiders have about as untrustworthy an offense as you can think of, so don't think that two straight games of 28-plus points is indicative of fantasy reliability. (And that Jason Campbell, Louis Murphy, etc. are solid plays.) The premier start on Oakland's side, of course, is Darren McFadden. DMC has received 18 or more touches nine times this season, and in those games has 10 touchdowns with an otherworldly average of 148.3 total yards. In a matchup with a Denver run defense that ranks 31st overall and has surrendered a league-high 19 rushing scores in 13 games, you couldn't name a better running back start in Week 15. ... The Raiders do not want to use a two-back committee, so it shouldn't have come as a surprise that Michael Bush received just five touches last week to McFadden's 19. Bush isn't worthy of flex consideration this week.

Murphy was held to 29 yards on two catches in the Raiders' Week 7 meeting with Denver, and is the best bet to see Broncos shutdown CB Champ Bailey in coverage. Though Murphy has picked up his play over the last three games, this isn't a good week to use him. ... Jacoby Ford has just three catches for 47 yards combined since Week 12. The improving health of Zach Miller won't help the Raiders' third receiver as he continues to struggle for targets. ... Campbell is only a two-QB league option with just two games of 230 or more yards this season. The Raiders will lean on the run in this one. ... Miller certainly looked healthier last week, with his passing-game role expanding accordingly. Continuing to play musical chairs at safety, the Broncos have allowed the fifth most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Miller is back on the radar as a TE1.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ New England

Perhaps because he's playing hurt, Charles Woodson has been a shell of himself this year, and it's not just because he isn't making big plays. According to Pro Football Focus, Woodson has allowed a 67 completion rate into his coverage over the last three games, despite matchups with the mostly meek passing attacks of Detroit, San Francisco, and Atlanta. He was cooked for a 44-yard bomb in Week 14. Woodson covers the slot against three-receiver sets, boding well for Wes Welker. A red-hot Welker is averaging eight grabs for 87 yards with four touchdowns in his last five games. ... Similarly on fire, Deion Branch's average line since Week 9 is 6/94/1. I'd never recommend sitting a wideout playing so well, but the only reason he's a poorer bet than Welker is because Branch is likely to see Packers shutdown RCB Tramon Williams for most of this one.

It's going to be chilly in Foxboro, but Tom Brady is unaffected. Credit Gregg Rosenthal for calling Brady this year's No. 1 fantasy QB in his preseason Bold Predictions. Through 13 games, he's exactly that. ... Only five teams have let up more yards to tight ends than Green Bay. Rob Gronkowski has traded good games with clunkers since midseason, but the matchup is right. ... Aaron Hernandez fell off the map in Week 10 at Pittsburgh, playing 28 percent of the snaps since. Gronk is at 87 percent. ... The Packers rank 19th in run defense and surrender 4.51 yards a carry. Averaging 90 yards in his last five games with five TDs in his last four, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a rock-solid RB2. ... Throw out two plays against the Jets in Week 13, and Danny Woodhead is averaging 44 total yards in his last five games. Hopefully, you can do better in the fantasy playoffs.

The Gillette Stadium forecast calls for a 50-percent chance of snow and 11-14 MPH winds. While these are elements in which Tom Brady dominates, the same cannot be said for Packers likely starter Matt Flynn. Like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez, Flynn's shortage of arm strength makes for a bad fit in anything less than ideal conditions. I'd expect the Pats to dial up heavy pressure, blitzing both the run and pass relentlessy in a home game against a first-time NFL starter. Playing the pass extremely well in their last two games, Bill Belichick's defense is going to make it awfully tough on the Green Bay offense. ... Consider Greg Jennings more of a low-end WR2 than the high-end WR1 he played like in Weeks 6-13. I can promise you this: Jennings will be open. He runs the majority of his routes down the left sideline, an area at which New England is vulnerable. Patriots RCB Kyle Arrington is no match for Jennings, even with safety help.

Andrew Quarless was the only pass catcher Flynn seemed to demonstrate a legitimate rapport with last week, with the two hooking up five times for 62 yards on six targets. Quarless is a desperation play, but there are plenty of tight end-desperate owners out there. ... Donald Driver won't be an option the rest of the way. ... James Jones and Jordy Nelson need Aaron Rodgers to succeed. ... Brandon Jackson started over James Starks last week, and also saw one more carry. The Packers probably left Jackson in for the majority of the game because he's a better pass protector for the inexperienced QB. Regardless, avoid Green Bay's backfield. Lesson learned.

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ Minnesota

I went on and on about Joe Webb in this column's intro, but it's worth mentioning that he gets a fairly significant downgrade in PPR leagues in a receiver slot. Webb has virtually no chance to catch passes. ... Say you are in a non-PPR league (where Webb has the most value), and you're deciding between Webb and Sidney Rice. Factor in all the ways for a running quarterback to rack up fantasy points, and also the fact that Rice is dependent on Webb. Sure, quarterbacks are more susceptible to turnovers than wideouts, but realistically, who do you think will score more? ... I absolutely love Percy Harvin and have recommended him all year, but he's not worth waiting for in the fantasy semi-finals with 44 receiving yards and two migraines since Week 10, plus a rookie at quarterback. Rice is the only Vikings pass catcher worth a Week 15 look.

Adrian Peterson's Week 14 game left much to be desired on the stat sheet. He had little room to run with LG Steve Hutchinson (hand) inactive, and an inept Tarvaris Jackson generating no ball movement. The fantasy playoffs are no time to bench the best runner in football, however, and certainly not against a Chicago team he routinely dominates. In seven career meetings with the Bears, A.P. has 11 touchdowns with an average of 129 total yards per game and 5.03 yards per carry. Certain to be the focal point of Minnesota's game plan with the passing attack scuffling, owners shouldn't think twice about using Peterson on Monday night. ... Visanthe Shiancoe, on the other hand, is a poor bet with tight ends around the league like Owen Daniels and Zach Miller getting healthier. Averaging 25.6 yards per game dating back to Week 2, Shiancoe needs touchdowns to matter in fantasy. The Bears have allowed two tight ends to find pay dirt all year.

Falling behind early in last week's blowout loss to New England was a killer for Matt Forte. He finished the game with 11 touches to tie for a season low. Forte has a difficult matchup against the Vikings' top-ten run defense this week, but fantasy owners can at least confidently expect him back in the 18-22 touch range in Minneapolis. This game will be much closer than last week's, and there's a good chance that the Bears will have the lead throughout. ... Though the Vikings can be susceptible to the pass, Jay Cutler ranks just 17th among all fantasy quarterbacks. He fell flat when asked to lead a comeback against the Patriots, committing his most turnovers since Week 7 and throwing for his fewest yards of the season during a game in which Cutler stayed healthy for all four quarters. Cutler is no better than a low-end QB1.

Johnny Knox's numbers have suffered since the Bears installed a ball-control type offense, with his yardage totals falling in three straight games. Struggling deep threats aren't recommended plays in poor elements. Knox is just barely a top-30 receiver option. ... Earl Bennett is a low-upside fantasy play, and disappointed in a favorable matchup last week coming off a career best game. You should be able to do better in the fantasy playoffs. ... Greg Olsen hasn't topped nine receiving yards in his last three games. Though he's never a terrible bet for a red-zone touchdown, he's only a TE2 in fantasy leagues. ... Devin Hester has two games over 41 yards all year. He's only an option in return-yardage formats.