It's safe to say we can add the Leslie Frazier Vikings to the list of teams that can't be trusted on the injury report.
Brett Favre is the first player Rotoworld can remember being upgraded from "out" to "questionable," much less on game day itself. While that turn of events manufactured the obligatory game-time drama accompanying Favre, it was
Adrian Peterson bowing out with a thigh/knee injury that turned out to be the true shocker.
The last-minute change of plans caught many owners astonished and unprepared for a follow-up move. That's perfectly understandable considering the optimism coming from Frazier and the dismissive manner in which the Vikes beat writers treated Peterson's nagging injuries. On the other hand, there's really no excuse other than shallow rosters not to have
Toby Gerhart on hand to plug in at the last minute.
The Peterson predicament, then, is another useful reminder that handcuffs are all-important at this time of the year. If you've yet to do so, it's time to drop your low-upside timeshare backs, second quarterback, or fifth receiver to insure Peterson,
Arian Foster,
Maurice Jones-Drew,
Knowshon Moreno,
LeSean McCoy,
Chris Johnson,
Darren McFadden,
Michael Turner, and
Ray Rice.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players available at each position as we head into Week 16. Full writeups of each player are below.
***
Editor's Note: You can get our
Season Pass package at a discount rate for the fantasy playoffs. Tons of extra stat tools, projections, columns, and playoff rankings, and Chris Wesseling's Dynasty league coverage -- all for just $4.99.
Quarterbacks1.
Rex Grossman2.
Tim Tebow3.
Jason Campbell4.
Kerry Collins5.
Shaun Hill6.
Chad Henne7.
Alex Smith8.
Colt McCoyRunning Backs1.
Derrick Ward2.
Toby Gerhart3.
Rashad Jennings4.
Tashard Choice5.
Donald Brown6.
Lance Ball7.
Maurice Morris8.
John KuhnWide Receivers1.
Anthony Armstrong2.
Jacoby Ford3.
Blair White4.
Sam Hurd5.
Josh Morgan6.
Kevin Walter7.
Andre Caldwell8.
Emmanuel Sanders9.
David NelsonTight Ends1.
Kevin Boss2.
Randy McMichael3.
Jimmy Graham4.
Jared CookDefense/Special Teams1. Chargers
2. Cowboys
3. Dolphins
QuarterbacksRex Grossman, Redskins - It can be argued that we all owe Mike Shanahan and offensive coordinator Kyle an apology after lampooning the move to pull
Donovan McNabb for Grossman last week. But Shanahan & Son are already receiving too much credit for Grossman's uneven play against a Cowboys secondary that has been shredded by every quarterback they've faced for over two months now. So why does Grossman top this list? Matchup and coaching priorities. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Grossman is going to keep chucking the ball so the Shanahans can see if he's a viable option in the
Jake Plummer role as the bridge to their next franchise quarterback.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Tim Tebow, Broncos - As you may have read by now, Tebow is just third quarterback in history to record a TD pass of at least 30 yards and a TD run of at least 40 yards in the same game. He didn't look over his head nor did he embarrass himself in a rivalry game against the Raiders while making his first start. If the Denver coaches take the training wheels off against a Texans defense still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Tebow will be a QB2 with upside this week. If
Knowshon Moreno (ribs) ends up sitting out, Tebow has a great chance to lead the team in rushing.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Jason Campbell, Raiders - With 19.6, 24.2, and 20.0 fantasy points over the past three weeks, Campbell has been QB1 caliber. The biggest problem with trusting him in Week 16 is that the Raiders can go run-heavy in any given week. With a home game against the Colts and
Peyton Manning, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is almost guaranteed to at least try to take the air out of the ball.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Kerry Collins, Titans - How good is
Kenny Britt? The Titans have averaged roughly 29 points per game in his nine starts and less than half of that games he's missed. With Britt back in the lineup the past two weeks, Collins has averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. He takes on a Chiefs defense this week allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per contest.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Shaun Hill, Lions - Indications out of Detroit suggest the Lions' quarterback question won't be answered until late this week. Hill (broken finger) progressed to the backup role in Week 15 while
Drew Stanton suffered a Grade 3 separation of his left shoulder. I expect Hill to get the call against a Dolphins defense ranked sixth against the pass. It's a poor matchup, and Hill's fantasy day can only be saved by throwing 45-50 times.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Chad Henne, Dolphins - Henne is playing as poorly as he ever has in his young career, but he did manage to complete 73 percent of his passes against the Bills for 276 yards. With upcoming plus matchups against the Lions (10th-most points to opposing QBs) and Patriots (fifth-most), he's worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Alex Smith, 49ers - As expected, Smith struggled mightily against the Chargers after posting his best game of the season the week before. He's expected to draw the start over
Troy Smith in a "big" NFC West tilt at St. Louis, but all bets are off if he plays like he did at San Diego. With a risk of being pulled for Troy, he's a dicey QB2 option.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Colt McCoy, Browns - The rookie continues to defy low expectations, playing virtually error-free football while remaining efficient. The upcoming matchups are forbidding, though, with games against AFC North rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh to close out the season.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Long-Term Fliers: Brett Favre,
Joe Webb,
Patrick Ramsey,
Matt Flynn,
Charlie Whitehurst
It's safe to say we can add the Leslie Frazier Vikings to the list of teams that can't be trusted on the injury report.
Brett Favre is the first player Rotoworld can remember being upgraded from "out" to "questionable," much less on game day itself. While that turn of events manufactured the obligatory game-time drama accompanying Favre, it was
Adrian Peterson bowing out with a thigh/knee injury that turned out to be the true shocker.
The last-minute change of plans caught many owners astonished and unprepared for a follow-up move. That's perfectly understandable considering the optimism coming from Frazier and the dismissive manner in which the Vikes beat writers treated Peterson's nagging injuries. On the other hand, there's really no excuse other than shallow rosters not to have
Toby Gerhart on hand to plug in at the last minute.
The Peterson predicament, then, is another useful reminder that handcuffs are all-important at this time of the year. If you've yet to do so, it's time to drop your low-upside timeshare backs, second quarterback, or fifth receiver to insure Peterson,
Arian Foster,
Maurice Jones-Drew,
Knowshon Moreno,
LeSean McCoy,
Chris Johnson,
Darren McFadden,
Michael Turner, and
Ray Rice.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players available at each position as we head into Week 16. Full writeups of each player are below.
***
Editor's Note: You can get our
Season Pass package at a discount rate for the fantasy playoffs. Tons of extra stat tools, projections, columns, and playoff rankings, and Chris Wesseling's Dynasty league coverage -- all for just $4.99.
Quarterbacks1.
Rex Grossman2.
Tim Tebow3.
Jason Campbell4.
Kerry Collins5.
Shaun Hill6.
Chad Henne7.
Alex Smith8.
Colt McCoyRunning Backs1.
Derrick Ward2.
Toby Gerhart3.
Rashad Jennings4.
Tashard Choice5.
Donald Brown6.
Lance Ball7.
Maurice Morris8.
John KuhnWide Receivers1.
Anthony Armstrong2.
Jacoby Ford3.
Blair White4.
Sam Hurd5.
Josh Morgan6.
Kevin Walter7.
Andre Caldwell8.
Emmanuel Sanders9.
David NelsonTight Ends1.
Kevin Boss2.
Randy McMichael3.
Jimmy Graham4.
Jared CookDefense/Special Teams1. Chargers
2. Cowboys
3. Dolphins
QuarterbacksRex Grossman, Redskins - It can be argued that we all owe Mike Shanahan and offensive coordinator Kyle an apology after lampooning the move to pull
Donovan McNabb for Grossman last week. But Shanahan & Son are already receiving too much credit for Grossman's uneven play against a Cowboys secondary that has been shredded by every quarterback they've faced for over two months now. So why does Grossman top this list? Matchup and coaching priorities. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Grossman is going to keep chucking the ball so the Shanahans can see if he's a viable option in the
Jake Plummer role as the bridge to their next franchise quarterback.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Tim Tebow, Broncos - As you may have read by now, Tebow is just third quarterback in history to record a TD pass of at least 30 yards and a TD run of at least 40 yards in the same game. He didn't look over his head nor did he embarrass himself in a rivalry game against the Raiders while making his first start. If the Denver coaches take the training wheels off against a Texans defense still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Tebow will be a QB2 with upside this week. If
Knowshon Moreno (ribs) ends up sitting out, Tebow has a great chance to lead the team in rushing.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Jason Campbell, Raiders - With 19.6, 24.2, and 20.0 fantasy points over the past three weeks, Campbell has been QB1 caliber. The biggest problem with trusting him in Week 16 is that the Raiders can go run-heavy in any given week. With a home game against the Colts and
Peyton Manning, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is almost guaranteed to at least try to take the air out of the ball.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Kerry Collins, Titans - How good is
Kenny Britt? The Titans have averaged roughly 29 points per game in his nine starts and less than half of that games he's missed. With Britt back in the lineup the past two weeks, Collins has averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. He takes on a Chiefs defense this week allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per contest.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Shaun Hill, Lions - Indications out of Detroit suggest the Lions' quarterback question won't be answered until late this week. Hill (broken finger) progressed to the backup role in Week 15 while
Drew Stanton suffered a Grade 3 separation of his left shoulder. I expect Hill to get the call against a Dolphins defense ranked sixth against the pass. It's a poor matchup, and Hill's fantasy day can only be saved by throwing 45-50 times.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Chad Henne, Dolphins - Henne is playing as poorly as he ever has in his young career, but he did manage to complete 73 percent of his passes against the Bills for 276 yards. With upcoming plus matchups against the Lions (10th-most points to opposing QBs) and Patriots (fifth-most), he's worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Alex Smith, 49ers - As expected, Smith struggled mightily against the Chargers after posting his best game of the season the week before. He's expected to draw the start over
Troy Smith in a "big" NFC West tilt at St. Louis, but all bets are off if he plays like he did at San Diego. With a risk of being pulled for Troy, he's a dicey QB2 option.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Colt McCoy, Browns - The rookie continues to defy low expectations, playing virtually error-free football while remaining efficient. The upcoming matchups are forbidding, though, with games against AFC North rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh to close out the season.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues
Long-Term Fliers: Brett Favre,
Joe Webb,
Patrick Ramsey,
Matt Flynn,
Charlie WhitehurstRunning BacksDerrick Ward, Texans -
Arian Foster (ankle, hip) said he would have tried to return to last Sunday's game in the fourth quarter if it was necessary. Coach Gary Kubiak said the ankle was bothering Foster too much http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/7348365.html to risk putting him back in for garbage time. Foster is fully expected to play against the Broncos, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. If Foster suffers a setback during the week, however, Ward would step in as the feature back. Considering the matchup, Ward would have high-end RB2 value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Kudos if you happened to be near a computer and found time for the last-minute switcheroo in the Minnesota backfield Monday night. For many
Adrian Peterson owners, though, the bow-out was costly. If you managed to make it to the finals despite the gut punch from Peterson, you owe it to yourself to add Gerhart as insurance in the event of another setback late this week. Gerhatt is still unowned in half of all CBSSports.com leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Rashad Jennings, Jaguars -
Maurice Jones-Drew's backup went over 50 yards for the fourth staright game last week, and he's now 18th among running backs in fantasy points over the past three weeks. Jones-Drew insists his knee was the reason he sat out the final two drives against the Colts, but it's still a concern after he missed two practices last week. If you own MJD, you have to protect yourself this week with Jennings.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Tashard Choice, Cowboys - Like Gerhart, Choice is still unowned in half of all CBSSports.com leagues. He saw 19 touches last week against the Redskins compared to 14 for
Felix Jones. I'd expect a similar backfield breakdown in Week 16 against a Cardinals defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Of the two Dallas backs, Choice is the far better bet for a touchdown.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Donald Brown, Colts - Chalk this one up to the Jaguars defense. Brown finally broke a few tackles, but the majority of his 133-yard breakout game came courtesy of the Jaguars' swiss-cheese defense. Pick him up only if you're desperate for a plug 'n' play this week. Those owners with
Adrian Peterson,
Arian Foster,
Maurice Jones-Drew, and
Knowshon Moreno should grab handcuffs instead.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Lance Ball, Broncos - Ball took over as the Broncos' feature back after
Knowshon Moreno departed with a rib injury. Unfortunately, he averaged just 1.3 yards on 15 carries against the Raiders. Moreno owners have to be crossing their fingers this week that he'll be ready to play against the Texans. If not, Ball could end up being the only viable option.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues
Maurice Morris, Lions - Morris' 109-yard performance against a depleted Bucs defense was his first good game since he scored a pair of touchdowns versus the Pats on Thanskgiving. I'll say the same thing now as I said then: the matchup isn't right for a repeat in Week 16. Morris, still splitting time with
Jahvid Best, travels to Miami to take on a defense that is second only to the Steelers in stopping the run over the past five weeks. Pick him up if you're desperate, but you're in trouble if you start him.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues
John Kuhn, Packers - It certainly appeared that the Packers had decided to go back to Kuhn as the goal-line horse at New England. Five of his nine touches came on plays inside the 10-yard line, and he was active as a receiver as well as a runner. Kuhn is only worth a look in deeper TD-heavy leagues this week.
Recommendation: Worth a look in touchdown-heavy leagues
Long-Term Fliers: Jerome Harrison,
Jason Snelling,
Javon Ringer,
Isaac RedmanEditor's Note: On the outside looking in for the fantasy playoffs? You can get a new team via SnapDraft right now.Wide ReceiversAnthony Armstrong, Redskins - Now an every-down player, Armstrong is 14th in wide receiver fantasy points over the past three weeks and 27th over the past five weeks.
Rex Grossman's first start produced Armstrong's first 100-yard performance of the season, and the matchup is right for repeat in Week 16 against a Jacksonville defense that allows the fourth-most points to opposing receivers. On a side note, Armstrong is surprisingly up to 772 yards on the season. Had the Shanahans not wasted time on
Joey Galloway for the first month of the season, we could be talking about Armstrong as a 1,000-yard receiver.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues
Jacoby Ford, Raiders - If only the Raiders passing game could be trusted on a weekly basis. Ford's talent is legit as evidenced by his third 100-yard performance in the past six weeks, but he's averaging just four targets per in the past three games. For owners in deeper leagues will got gamble on a boom-or-bust talent, Ford is your man.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deepers leagues
Blair White, Colts - White merits a pickup with poor
Austin Collie likely out for the season after a third concussion. Keep expectations in check, however, as White is a dramatic downgrade in talent from Collie. Perhaps it was the mistake-filled game two weeks ago, but
Peyton Manning didn't show the same trust after White replaced Collie in the second half against the Jags.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Sam Hurd, Cowboys - Entering the starting lineup opposite
Miles Austin last week, Hurd's pedestrian 4-35 statline would have looked a lot more impressive had he reeled in two difficult passes that went off his hands in the end zone. Hurd is worth a look in deeper leagues if only because he's now starting on an offense averaging 32.2 points per game since Jason Garrett took over as the head coach.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Josh Morgan, 49ers - While
Michael Crabtree's absence from the passing attack has reached milk-carton status, Morgan has been the 23rd-ranked fantasy receiver over the past three weeks. He's coming off a career-high 107 yards, and he seems to have found a rapport with
Alex Smith while defenses devote extra attention to Crabtree and
Vernon Davis. For all of Morgan's recent success, he remains a dicey WR3 play at St. Louis in Week 16.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Kevin Walter, Texans - Walter looks like an obvious pickup as a top-30 fantasy receiver over the past three weeks. Digging a lit deeper, though, the sudden rise in production between him and
Jacoby Jones has been the product of
Matt Schaub passing over 50 times a game in come-back attempts. The Texans aren't going to be in the same predicament at Denver this week, so Walter is only an option in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Andre Caldwell, Bengals - Caldwell took over as the Bengals' starting flanker in Week 15, leading the team in targets (6), receptions (4), and yards (84) against the Browns. He'll start again this week, but it's a red-light matchup against a Chargers defense that allows the least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers - With
Darrelle Revis tying up
Hines Ward, Sanders was the recipient of a team-high 13 targets in Week 15. Although his role is steadily increasing, the Steelers figure to go ground 'n' pound against the Panthers Thursday night. Pick up Sanders only if you're in a Dynasty or deep keeper league.
Hines Ward has lost several steps in his age-34 season, so Sanders figures to have a much more significant role in 2011.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
David Nelson, Bills -
Ryan Fitzpatrick's new favorite red-zone weapon has scored in three straight games. With slot receiver
Donald Jones banged up, Nelson should be a lock for more than three targets against the Patriots in Week 16. He's only a last-ditch option for desperate owners in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues
Hold Off: Brian Robiskie - I wouldn't touch Robiskie with a 39-and-a-half foot pole.
Tight EndsKevin Boss, Giants - With the Giants receivers banged up of late, Boss' offensive role has increased to the point where only
Jason Witten has more fantasy points over the past five weeks. The matchup is right again this week against a Packers defense that allows the fourth-most points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Randy McMichael, Chargers - There's once again talk that
Antonio Gates is shutting his foot down until the end of the regular season, which would give McMichael another start at Cincinnati this week. Though his five catches and 55 yards were season highs and unlikely to be repeated, McMichael will be a primary red-zone target for
Philip Rivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Jimmy Graham, Saints -
Drew Brees' new favorite red zone weapon is fifth among tight ends the past three weeks and eighth among tight ends the past five weeks. Like fellow rookies
Rob Gronkowski and
Aaron Hernandez, his snap count is inconsistent from week to week, so he's a better play in TD-heavy leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues
Jared Cook, Titans -
Bo Scaife was a healthy scratch in Week 15, an indication that the freakishly athletic Cook has finally passed him on the depth chart. Cook won't make for a good spot start against the Chiefs this week, but he's on this list as a reminder that he needs to be rostered in all Dynasty and deep keeper leagues. The talent is there, Scaife is unlikely to return in 2011, and the Titans could have a quarterback upgrade.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper leagues
Defense/Special TeamsChargers -
Brian Westbrook's garbage-time touchdown ended a streak of seven consecutive shutout quarters for the Bolts defense. Playing as well as they have all season, the Chargers head to Cincinnati to face pick-six master
Carson Palmer without
Terrell Owens and possibly without
Chad Ochocinco.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Cowboys - No fantasy D/ST has more points over the past five weeks than Dallas' 43.0. The Cowboys travel to Arizona this week to take on
John Skelton and the Cardinals' 31st ranked offense.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
Dolphins - Miami is absolutely destroying opposing running games over the past five weeks, second only to the Steelers with 72.2 yards allowed per game on the ground. They're going to turn the Lions into a one-dimensional offense, waiting to tee off on
Shaun Hill or
Drew Stanton.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play
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