Matchups: Angry Birds' Revenge

This is the final Matchups column of the 2010 season, which leaves me with something of an empty feeling and at the same time a sense of relief. I'm excited to move on to different things like the NFL playoffs, draft season, and free agency.

Owners eliminated from the fantasy postseason probably aren't reading this, but the best advice I can give them is to spend next spring and summer cultivating football knowledge. As is the case in any undertaking, the more you know, the better off you'll be. In fantasy football, it's all about drafting the best possible team and knowing who to start when.

Every last bit of expertise you hold over your opponent can be difference making in such a luck-based game. Just ask owners who entered the season already knowing about Arian Foster, Mike Wallace, and Mike Williams South, benched Calvin and Andre Johnson against Darrelle Revis, played Seyi Ajirotutu against the Texans, and bought the Jamaal Charles hype.

The Rotoworld staff is here to help, and we can be found on Twitter. Myself (@evansilva), Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal), Chris Wesseling (@chriswesseling), Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan), and L.J. Rader (@LJ_Rader) will be around all offseason.

Best of luck in Week 16. We all need it, and if you don't take the trophy, there's always next year. And the next. And the next after that. Fantasy football and Rotoworld are here to stay.

7:30PM ET Saturday Night

Dallas @ Arizona

The Cowboys and Cardinals are long since eliminated from playoff contention. This game is a real-life yawner, but has the potential to be a scoring bonanza indoors at Arizona. Though Larry Fitzgerald's season has been billed as a disappointment, he's on pace for a fourth straight 90-catch, 1,000-yard campaign. His touchdowns are down, but this matchup is right to remedy that problem. No team in the NFL has permitted more passing scores than the Cowboys, who also allow the highest quarterback completion rate in football. With double-digit targets in a whopping nine straight games, Fitzgerald is a WR1 in championship week. ... Fitzgerald has remained the Cards' clear offensive focal point with John Skelton under center, leaving scraps for the rest of the wide receivers. Slumping Steve Breaston is a low-end WR3 despite this game's favorable setup.

Last week's clunker (6-16, 3-12) in a matchup with Carolina's No. 23 run defense reconfirmed Tim Hightower as Fool's Gold in fantasy leagues. Hightower fumbled again, and finished with fewer carries than a healthy Beanie Wells. With neither of Arizona's backs a sure bet to top 10 touches in any given game, it's a fantasy situation to avoid. ... Wells is averaging 3.34 yards per carry on the season and 2.91 in the last month. He has two touchdowns in 2010. Clearly, Wells has taken several steps back following an incredibly promising rookie year (4.51 YPC, seven touchdowns).

It gets good on Dallas' side, starting with Jon Kitna. Holding a 12-to-4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last six games, Kitna faces off with a Cards defense that ranks 23rd against the pass, 23rd in sacks, and will be without sack leader Joey Porter (triceps). Kitna will have a clean pocket, and couldn't ask for a friendlier passing environment. ... Though Miles Austin's yardage totals have fallen off, a favorable matchup indoors will be hard for his owners to pass up. Always a good bet to find pay dirt, Austin is still a top-15 fantasy receiver. ... Roy Williams' (groin) likely return is bad news more for Sam Hurd than Austin or Jason Witten. Williams and Hurd cancel each other out in fantasy. ... Over the last month, Witten is averaging a ridiculous eight catches for 88 yards and a touchdown per game. He'll give coverage-challenged safety Adrian Wilson fits down the seam.

Dallas is averaging 32.2 points per game since Week 9. It's going to be safe to expect consistent ball movement against Arizona's 27th-ranked defense, a factor boding well for Cowboys rushers. And quietly, Tashard Choice has emerged as the backfield's best fantasy bet for Week 16. Even if his bruised shin is slight, usual lead back Felix Jones has a history of poor performance at less than 100 percent. Jones is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry without a touchdown in weeks when he's missed at least one practice this season, and playing on the short week won't help his slow-recovering tendencies. Already the heavy favorite for goal-line work in Dallas, Choice also saw more open-field carries than Jones in Week 15. Both are viable RB2s considering a matchup with the Cardinals' No. 30 run defense. Marion Barber (calf) is highly unlikely to be a factor.

1:00PM ET Games

Detroit @ Miami

"Matchup-proof" is a common term in fantasy circles. Calvin Johnson has taken it to the next level as a quarterback-proof starter. Megatron has gone through three QBs, averaging a 6/81 line with eight touchdowns in Shaun Hill's eight starts, 5/53 with three TDs in Matthew Stafford's three starts, and 5/88 with one score in Drew Stanton's three. Destroying the Bucs' double teams last week, Johnson vaulted to No. 2 in receiver fantasy scoring. Hill's anticipated return is more good news, as Johnson has put up his best numbers with him under center. The Lions also have shown willing to go pass-crazy with Hill at quarterback. ... Hill will help the offense, but Nate Burleson is still hard to trust with a high of 35 yards in the last month. Though pass attempts may rise, Detroit is hardly guaranteed to have success throwing it against Miami's No. 6 pass defense.

Only two teams have given up fewer fantasy points to tight ends than the Fins, so it's not worth the trouble when Brandon Pettigrew hasn't scored since Week 9 and is averaging 25 yards in his last three games. ... Another bad idea: Chasing Maurice Morris' 119-total yard effort from Week 15. The Dolphins are absolutely slamming the run, allowing a miniscule 2.23 yards per carry to running backs in their last four games, with zero rushing touchdowns. This is in matchups with Peyton Hillis (No. 2 fantasy back), Darren McFadden (No. 4), Fred Jackson (21), and LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene (20/38). Morris should be avoided like the plague. ... Even easier to avoid: Jahvid Best, with zero touchdowns since Week 2 and a 3.17 YPC average since Week 9.

The Dolphins are eliminated from playoff contention, but Brandon Marshall sure didn't play last week's game like a receiver who's given up. Turning in his best fantasy performance since Week 3, Marshall ran circles around Bills RCB Drayton Florence for 106 yards and a touchdown on 11 receptions. Marshall's outlook gets even better this week against a Lions defense set to trot out Nathan Vasher at right corner. Bucs rookie Mike Williams whipped Vasher for a 24-yard score on a double move last week. ... The Lions have been gutted by slot receivers in recent games (e.g. Earl Bennett -- 7/104; Wes Welker -- 8/90/2), so Davone Bess is safely back to every-week WR3 status in PPR leagues. Bess had nine receptions for 78 yards against Buffalo last Sunday.

Marshall could've put a bigger dent in the Week 15 box score had Chad Henne been willing to throw downfield. Marshall was open on a number of fly routes down the left sideline, but Check-Down Chad couldn't muster up the guts to connect. All 11 of his hookups with Marshall were of horizontal variety. Though the Lions' pass defense is plenty vulnerable, Henne continues to be a low-end QB2. ... Much like Henne, favorable matchups just haven't been enough to make Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams overly desirable fantasy starts. Ronnie is at 3.09 yards per carry in his last six games, while Ricky's average stands at a better, if still pedestrian, 4.16 in his last seven. With both backs in contract years, expect an overhaul of the Dolphins' rushing offense this spring.

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Ray Rice showed in Week 15 exactly what he's capable of as a game plan's centerpiece. Seeing a season-high 36 touches, Rice totaled 233 yards, scored twice, and averaged 4.94 yards a carry -- his most since Week 3. With Baltimore finally finding the right mix in its front five, Rice should stay hot against a Cleveland run defense falling apart at the seams. So gashed were the Browns by struggling Cedric Benson in Week 15 that coach Eric Mangini seized defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Rob Ryan mid-game. It didn't work, of course, as Benson rolled out 75 second-half yards. Rice also saw eight of the Ravens' 10 red-zone touches in last week's win over the Saints, while Willis McGahee failed to exceed eight carries for a seventh straight game.

Though Joe Flacco threw multiple TD passes for the seventh time in his last nine games in Week 15, his 172 yards were a low since Week 2 as part of a run-heavy attack. With 16-18 MPH winds, sub-25 degree temps, and a 40 percent chance of snow in the Cleveland forecast, another run-first approach is likely. Flacco just doesn't offer as much upside as someone like Matt Schaub, Jon Kitna, or even Ben Roethlisberger. He's a low-end QB1. ... Anquan Boldin lit up CB Eric Wright for an 8/142/3 line in the Ravens' early-season meeting with Cleveland, but Wright (injured reserve, knee) is no longer around to torment. Having topped 50 yards once in his last seven tries, Boldin is a risky WR3. ... Derrick Mason had one catch last week and ranks 28th among fantasy receivers. He's certainly not an exciting option. ... Ed Dickson simply hasn't done enough to warrant a championship week start, especially with Todd Heap (hamstring) possibly returning.

Last week, we discussed Peyton Hillis' tendency to fade late in games. His per-play production has also dropped late in the year. Whereas Hillis averaged 4.84 YPC with eight TDs in the first eight games, he's down to a 4.03 in his last five while going scoreless in three straight. Owners lacking great alternatives can look to Hillis' 180-yard Week 3 effort at Baltimore for confidence, but keep in mind that was his coming-out party. The Ravens have stiffened against the run since, ranking fifth in the league in rush defense and permitting just five touchdowns on the ground in 14 games. After he was seen limping at Browns headquarters Wednesday, it's not a crazy idea to sit Hillis for someone like BenJarvus Green-Ellis or LeGarrette Blount in a non-PPR league. In PPR, Hillis is still a shoo-in top-ten running back. Only three backs in the league have more catches.

Colt McCoy has six starts, and three of them have coincided with strong games for Ben Watson (6/88/1, 5/74, 7/92). Watson is far from a sure thing, but he's also the best bet for catches and receiving yards on the Browns whenever McCoy is under center. Baltimore is tough on tight ends, but did allow a 5/47/1 line to Watson in Week 3. ... Brian Robiskie's 46-yard touchdown last week was fluky considering it came in recently signed street free agent CB Keiwan Ratliff's coverage on a pass that should've been picked off. Robiskie isn't an option this week. ... Neither is Mohamed Massaquoi, who has one touchdown since Week 1 and is an afterthought when McCoy starts.

This is the final Matchups column of the 2010 season, which leaves me with something of an empty feeling and at the same time a sense of relief. I'm excited to move on to different things like the NFL playoffs, draft season, and free agency.

Owners eliminated from the fantasy postseason probably aren't reading this, but the best advice I can give them is to spend next spring and summer cultivating football knowledge. As is the case in any undertaking, the more you know, the better off you'll be. In fantasy football, it's all about drafting the best possible team and knowing who to start when.

Every last bit of expertise you hold over your opponent can be difference making in such a luck-based game. Just ask owners who entered the season already knowing about Arian Foster, Mike Wallace, and Mike Williams South, benched Calvin and Andre Johnson against Darrelle Revis, played Seyi Ajirotutu against the Texans, and bought the Jamaal Charles hype.

The Rotoworld staff is here to help, and we can be found on Twitter. Myself (@evansilva), Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal), Chris Wesseling (@chriswesseling), Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan), and L.J. Rader (@LJ_Rader) will be around all offseason.

Best of luck in Week 16. We all need it, and if you don't take the trophy, there's always next year. And the next. And the next after that. Fantasy football and Rotoworld are here to stay.

7:30PM ET Saturday Night

Dallas @ Arizona

The Cowboys and Cardinals are long since eliminated from playoff contention. This game is a real-life yawner, but has the potential to be a scoring bonanza indoors at Arizona. Though Larry Fitzgerald's season has been billed as a disappointment, he's on pace for a fourth straight 90-catch, 1,000-yard campaign. His touchdowns are down, but this matchup is right to remedy that problem. No team in the NFL has permitted more passing scores than the Cowboys, who also allow the highest quarterback completion rate in football. With double-digit targets in a whopping nine straight games, Fitzgerald is a WR1 in championship week. ... Fitzgerald has remained the Cards' clear offensive focal point with John Skelton under center, leaving scraps for the rest of the wide receivers. Slumping Steve Breaston is a low-end WR3 despite this game's favorable setup.

Last week's clunker (6-16, 3-12) in a matchup with Carolina's No. 23 run defense reconfirmed Tim Hightower as Fool's Gold in fantasy leagues. Hightower fumbled again, and finished with fewer carries than a healthy Beanie Wells. With neither of Arizona's backs a sure bet to top 10 touches in any given game, it's a fantasy situation to avoid. ... Wells is averaging 3.34 yards per carry on the season and 2.91 in the last month. He has two touchdowns in 2010. Clearly, Wells has taken several steps back following an incredibly promising rookie year (4.51 YPC, seven touchdowns).

It gets good on Dallas' side, starting with Jon Kitna. Holding a 12-to-4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last six games, Kitna faces off with a Cards defense that ranks 23rd against the pass, 23rd in sacks, and will be without sack leader Joey Porter (triceps). Kitna will have a clean pocket, and couldn't ask for a friendlier passing environment. ... Though Miles Austin's yardage totals have fallen off, a favorable matchup indoors will be hard for his owners to pass up. Always a good bet to find pay dirt, Austin is still a top-15 fantasy receiver. ... Roy Williams' (groin) likely return is bad news more for Sam Hurd than Austin or Jason Witten. Williams and Hurd cancel each other out in fantasy. ... Over the last month, Witten is averaging a ridiculous eight catches for 88 yards and a touchdown per game. He'll give coverage-challenged safety Adrian Wilson fits down the seam.

Dallas is averaging 32.2 points per game since Week 9. It's going to be safe to expect consistent ball movement against Arizona's 27th-ranked defense, a factor boding well for Cowboys rushers. And quietly, Tashard Choice has emerged as the backfield's best fantasy bet for Week 16. Even if his bruised shin is slight, usual lead back Felix Jones has a history of poor performance at less than 100 percent. Jones is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry without a touchdown in weeks when he's missed at least one practice this season, and playing on the short week won't help his slow-recovering tendencies. Already the heavy favorite for goal-line work in Dallas, Choice also saw more open-field carries than Jones in Week 15. Both are viable RB2s considering a matchup with the Cardinals' No. 30 run defense. Marion Barber (calf) is highly unlikely to be a factor.

1:00PM ET Games

Detroit @ Miami

"Matchup-proof" is a common term in fantasy circles. Calvin Johnson has taken it to the next level as a quarterback-proof starter. Megatron has gone through three QBs, averaging a 6/81 line with eight touchdowns in Shaun Hill's eight starts, 5/53 with three TDs in Matthew Stafford's three starts, and 5/88 with one score in Drew Stanton's three. Destroying the Bucs' double teams last week, Johnson vaulted to No. 2 in receiver fantasy scoring. Hill's anticipated return is more good news, as Johnson has put up his best numbers with him under center. The Lions also have shown willing to go pass-crazy with Hill at quarterback. ... Hill will help the offense, but Nate Burleson is still hard to trust with a high of 35 yards in the last month. Though pass attempts may rise, Detroit is hardly guaranteed to have success throwing it against Miami's No. 6 pass defense.

Only two teams have given up fewer fantasy points to tight ends than the Fins, so it's not worth the trouble when Brandon Pettigrew hasn't scored since Week 9 and is averaging 25 yards in his last three games. ... Another bad idea: Chasing Maurice Morris' 119-total yard effort from Week 15. The Dolphins are absolutely slamming the run, allowing a miniscule 2.23 yards per carry to running backs in their last four games, with zero rushing touchdowns. This is in matchups with Peyton Hillis (No. 2 fantasy back), Darren McFadden (No. 4), Fred Jackson (21), and LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene (20/38). Morris should be avoided like the plague. ... Even easier to avoid: Jahvid Best, with zero touchdowns since Week 2 and a 3.17 YPC average since Week 9.

The Dolphins are eliminated from playoff contention, but Brandon Marshall sure didn't play last week's game like a receiver who's given up. Turning in his best fantasy performance since Week 3, Marshall ran circles around Bills RCB Drayton Florence for 106 yards and a touchdown on 11 receptions. Marshall's outlook gets even better this week against a Lions defense set to trot out Nathan Vasher at right corner. Bucs rookie Mike Williams whipped Vasher for a 24-yard score on a double move last week. ... The Lions have been gutted by slot receivers in recent games (e.g. Earl Bennett -- 7/104; Wes Welker -- 8/90/2), so Davone Bess is safely back to every-week WR3 status in PPR leagues. Bess had nine receptions for 78 yards against Buffalo last Sunday.

Marshall could've put a bigger dent in the Week 15 box score had Chad Henne been willing to throw downfield. Marshall was open on a number of fly routes down the left sideline, but Check-Down Chad couldn't muster up the guts to connect. All 11 of his hookups with Marshall were of horizontal variety. Though the Lions' pass defense is plenty vulnerable, Henne continues to be a low-end QB2. ... Much like Henne, favorable matchups just haven't been enough to make Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams overly desirable fantasy starts. Ronnie is at 3.09 yards per carry in his last six games, while Ricky's average stands at a better, if still pedestrian, 4.16 in his last seven. With both backs in contract years, expect an overhaul of the Dolphins' rushing offense this spring.

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Ray Rice showed in Week 15 exactly what he's capable of as a game plan's centerpiece. Seeing a season-high 36 touches, Rice totaled 233 yards, scored twice, and averaged 4.94 yards a carry -- his most since Week 3. With Baltimore finally finding the right mix in its front five, Rice should stay hot against a Cleveland run defense falling apart at the seams. So gashed were the Browns by struggling Cedric Benson in Week 15 that coach Eric Mangini seized defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Rob Ryan mid-game. It didn't work, of course, as Benson rolled out 75 second-half yards. Rice also saw eight of the Ravens' 10 red-zone touches in last week's win over the Saints, while Willis McGahee failed to exceed eight carries for a seventh straight game.

Though Joe Flacco threw multiple TD passes for the seventh time in his last nine games in Week 15, his 172 yards were a low since Week 2 as part of a run-heavy attack. With 16-18 MPH winds, sub-25 degree temps, and a 40 percent chance of snow in the Cleveland forecast, another run-first approach is likely. Flacco just doesn't offer as much upside as someone like Matt Schaub, Jon Kitna, or even Ben Roethlisberger. He's a low-end QB1. ... Anquan Boldin lit up CB Eric Wright for an 8/142/3 line in the Ravens' early-season meeting with Cleveland, but Wright (injured reserve, knee) is no longer around to torment. Having topped 50 yards once in his last seven tries, Boldin is a risky WR3. ... Derrick Mason had one catch last week and ranks 28th among fantasy receivers. He's certainly not an exciting option. ... Ed Dickson simply hasn't done enough to warrant a championship week start, especially with Todd Heap (hamstring) possibly returning.

Last week, we discussed Peyton Hillis' tendency to fade late in games. His per-play production has also dropped late in the year. Whereas Hillis averaged 4.84 YPC with eight TDs in the first eight games, he's down to a 4.03 in his last five while going scoreless in three straight. Owners lacking great alternatives can look to Hillis' 180-yard Week 3 effort at Baltimore for confidence, but keep in mind that was his coming-out party. The Ravens have stiffened against the run since, ranking fifth in the league in rush defense and permitting just five touchdowns on the ground in 14 games. After he was seen limping at Browns headquarters Wednesday, it's not a crazy idea to sit Hillis for someone like BenJarvus Green-Ellis or LeGarrette Blount in a non-PPR league. In PPR, Hillis is still a shoo-in top-ten running back. Only three backs in the league have more catches.

Colt McCoy has six starts, and three of them have coincided with strong games for Ben Watson (6/88/1, 5/74, 7/92). Watson is far from a sure thing, but he's also the best bet for catches and receiving yards on the Browns whenever McCoy is under center. Baltimore is tough on tight ends, but did allow a 5/47/1 line to Watson in Week 3. ... Brian Robiskie's 46-yard touchdown last week was fluky considering it came in recently signed street free agent CB Keiwan Ratliff's coverage on a pass that should've been picked off. Robiskie isn't an option this week. ... Neither is Mohamed Massaquoi, who has one touchdown since Week 1 and is an afterthought when McCoy starts.



San Francisco @ St. Louis

Have defenses figured out Sam Bradford? The No. 1 overall pick has a 0:5 TD-to-INT ratio in his last three games, and bottomed out last week with a season-low 4.21 yards-per-attempt average against a Chiefs defense daring him to beat them. Kansas City consistently used a single-high safety, meaning St. Louis' receivers had one-on-ones on the outside. Instead of picking apart the generous coverage, Bradford's completion rate dropped below 50.0 for the first time in his career, and he also posted a season-worst 40.9 passer rating. It's very bad news for a Rams team that needs to win out, and even worse news for Bradford's receiver corps. ... Danny Amendola did get back on track against the Chiefs, catching a game-high seven balls for 60 yards. Still scoreless in his last five games, Amendola remains a weak fantasy play outside of deep PPR leagues.

Danario Alexander played a season-high 28 snaps in last week's loss to K.C., but didn't catch a pass for a second straight game. He's a fourth receiver in a struggling passing attack. ... Brandon Gibson is a No. 2, but he's averaging just 44.2 yards per game with one score since Week 10. ... Steven Jackson gutted San Francisco for 148 total yards and a touchdown in the teams' midseason meeting, and has 114 or more yards in three straight games. The 49ers have a top-seven run defense and allow the fewest yards per carry in the NFC, but were gutted for 110 yards and a touchdown on the ground by Chargers running backs last week. It can't hurt Jackson's cause that Niners ILBs Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes are both playing with broken hands.

Like St. Louis, the 49ers are in must-win mode. Yes, 5-9 San Francisco still has a chance to win the NFC West, so they've handed the QB job back to their most talented passer. Troy Smith threw for a 49ers season-high 356 yards and avoided turnovers in a Week 10 win over the Rams, and has taken the last two weeks "off" to more fully comprehend OC Mike Johnson's scheme. Smith obviously isn't a fantasy starter, but certainly gives the offense its best chance for big plays. ... Vernon Davis' weekly averages with Troy aren't spectacular, but it's worth remembering that Davis had 79 yards in the aforementioned game, with Smith all in all completing eight passes for 159 yards to tight ends. Davis is the No. 4 overall fantasy tight end. Now is no time to bench him.

Double teaming and quarterback musical chairs haven't helped, but Michael Crabtree has been out-produced by Josh Morgan in two straight games and three of the last five. Smith isn't likely to save Crabtree, so it's another situation to avoid in champions week. ... Anthony Dixon (ankle) is hobbled this week, but Brian Westbrook is averaging just 2.92 yards per carry since his fluky 136-yard game in Week 12, which came against an Arizona defense that had already given up. Though this is a favorable matchup -- St. Louis allows 4.55 YPC -- Westbrook isn't effective between the tackles at this stage of his career. The 31-year-old is a low-end flex option in PPR leagues.

New England @ Buffalo

The Ralph Wilson Stadium forecast includes sub-20 degree temps, a 40 percent chance of sleet, and 13-15 MPH winds. They're elements in which Tom Brady dominates, but the same can't be said for weak-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick, regardless of the Pats' pass defense ranking. The Bills seem to realize it, and have dramatically scaled back pass attempts in the season's second half. Whereas Fitzpatrick threw 38 times a game in his first six starts, he's at 29.5 in his last six, and hasn't topped 26 in the last three weeks. In his past two cold weather games (vs. CLE, vs. PIT), Fitz averages just 203.5 yards with a combined 2:2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. It's bad news for his Week 16 fantasy outlook, as well as Steve Johnson's. Johnson is only a low-upside WR2/3.

Bills rookie slot man David Nelson isn't a fantasy option, but is an intriguing prospect. At 6'5/217, Nelson ran a 4.45 forty at Florida's Pro Day after playing behind Riley Cooper in the Gators' run-heavy offense. Nelson never topped 25 receptions in a college season, but already has 31 as a first-year pro. He played 58 percent of the snaps in Week 15, and scored an 18-yard touchdown. ... New England is only above average in run defense, but Fred Jackson's production has dropped off sharply since C.J. Spiller returned from a hamstring three weeks ago. Whereas Jackson averaged 5.31 yards per carry with five touchdowns in Weeks 10-12, he's scoreless in Weeks 13-15 with a 3.45 YPC average. Jackson has also been phased out of the Bills' passing game.

Wes Welker's three-catch, 42-yard game in Week 15 wasn't as much due to Charles Woodson's coverage as were two drops and New England severely losing time of possession (41:19). Tom Brady completed a season-low 15 passes. Welker is still averaging nearly seven catches for 80 yards per game since Week 9, and the Bills surrendered nine receptions to Fins slot man Davone Bess last week. ... Brady will be just fine, of course. He has multiple TDs in seven straight games and 326 or more yards in four of his last six. ... The Bills allow the third most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Things I do know: 1) Aaron Hernandez scored two touchdowns in Week 15. 2) Rob Gronkowski plays far more snaps than Hernandez. 3) One of them is likely to have a big game Sunday. Things I don't know: 1) Which one of them it will be. 2) That I'm not helping much.

Like Welker, Deion Branch had his first slow game in over a month last week against the Pack, seeing just two targets. In potentially snowy Buffalo, the Pats could easily go with a run-heavy offense and short passing attack. Branch is their deep threat. It's not a bad idea to sit him for higher-upside WR3s. ... Buffalo ranks 32nd against the run, setting up BenJarvus Green-Ellis nicely. "Law Firm" has six rushing TDs in his last five games and a 4.57 yards-per-carry average in his last six. He touched up the Bills for 104 total yards, a score, and 6.1 YPC in the Pats' Week 3 meeting with them, and is a rock-solid RB2 with an especially high ceiling this week. ... Danny Woodhead hasn't seen more than 11 touches since Week 5. He needs touchdowns to matter.

Washington @ Jacksonville

Both coach Jack Del Rio and Maurice Jones-Drew expressed concern this week about the star back's knee injury, which cost him the final two possessions of last Sunday's loss. Jones-Drew wound up with a season-low 29 snaps against the Colts. (His previous low was 40.) MJD is listed as questionable, so owners should be sure to handcuff him with Rashad Jennings, as either rusher has the potential to dominate the Skins' No. 27 run defense. Washington is allowing 4.84 yards per carry -- most in the NFC. ... The Redskins are reeling at strong safety, the position often assigned with tight end coverage. LaRon Landry (Achilles) is out for the season, and fill-in Reed Doughty suffered a concussion last week. It shouldn't be surprising, then, that they've given up touchdowns to tight ends in back-to-back games and were gashed by Jason Witten for a 10/140/1 line last week. Play No. 3 overall fantasy tight end Marcedes Lewis with the utmost confidence.

The EverBank Field forecast calls for 22 MPH winds, although they're expected to die down as the day progresses. Outside of domed games this week, you won't find more favorable temperatures (49-50 degrees) with a zero percent chance of rain. It's good news for red-hot David Garrard in a matchup with the league's No. 31 pass defense. We've discussed previously how Garrard can be essentially an every-week fantasy starter when he's playing well, and he certainly is in his last three games with a 6:2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. The Jags let Garrard air it out with Jones-Drew hobbled last Sunday, and he finished with a season-high 38 pass attempts. He's a rock-solid QB1 against Washington, which may be without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo (groin, hamstring). ... Mike Sims-Walker appeared to aggravate his high ankle sprain in Week 15 and has been downright awful in home games this season. You should be able to do better. ... Mike Thomas is averaging 35.2 receiving yards in his last five games and isn't a fantasy option.

The Skins are eliminated from the playoffs, but that didn't stop them last week from mounting an aggressive comeback after falling behind Dallas 27-7. The final score was 33-30 Cowboys. Rex Grossman threw for 322 yards and four TDs, although a grand majority of it came after the game had seemingly fallen out of reach. While this matchup is right -- the Jags rank 27th against the pass and allow the most yards per throw in football -- we've seen way too much of Grossman to be confident that he'll continue to have success. Don't get caught thinking he's suddenly a QB1. ... The good news is that Grossman showed the ability to deliver the football to his playmakers. Even better, Santana Moss confirmed that he is healthy. Tying for the NFL lead in targets last week, Moss caught eight balls for 72 yards and two touchdowns. He's a WR2 against the Jags.

Chris Cooley ranks second in the NFL in receptions by tight ends and is on pace for a career high in yardage, so I've been surprised to hear owners consider sitting him. Cooley was Grossman's second most frequently targeted pass catcher last week, and the Jags have allowed the fifth most yards in the league to tight ends. ... Anthony Armstrong only has one touchdown in his last nine games, but is averaging a respectable 71 yards since Week 8. Considering the matchup, you could do much worse in a WR3 position. ... Averaging an incredibly impressive 4.89 yards per carry on the year, Ryan Torain squares off with an 18th-ranked Jags run defense that surrenders 4.57 YPC and over a rushing score per game. On a personal note, I'm strongly considering playing Torain over Peyton Hillis in my touchdown-heavy college league this weekend.

NY Jets @ Chicago

Vegas projects Jets-Bears as Week 16's lowest scoring game, as both teams rank in the bottom five in points allowed. In a game also likely to be played in cold, potentially windy conditions, there just aren't many high-upside fantasy starts. ... Perhaps the safest bet for a solid day is Matt Forte, who is averaging 19 touches in his last six games and will square off with a Jets team showing late-season signs of decline in run defense. Steelers, Dolphins, and Patriots backs have combined for three rushing touchdowns and a 4.32 YPC average against the Jets in their last three games. Though his ceiling is capped by the continued loss of goal-line carries to Chester Taylor, Forte is your man if you're looking for a safe 70-90 total yards as a low-end RB2.

The Jets used Darrelle Revis all over the formation in Week 15, although he primarily matched up with Hines Ward. Ward caught two balls -- neither with Revis on him. The Bears' No. 1 receiver is Johnny Knox, but Devin Hester can also expect plenty of Revis' coverage in Hester's limited offensive playing time. Chicago's wideout corps should be avoided in this one. ... Though Jay Cutler ate up Minnesota's submissive secondary for three TD passes last Monday, he's facing a different animal this week. Cutler is averaging just 201 yards since Week 7, and entering Week 15 had a 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his previous two games. He's a QB2 against the Jets. ... Greg Olsen is averaging 9.5 yards per game in this last month. He's well off the radar.

A controlled passing attack allowed for one of Mark Sanchez's better games of the season in last week's upset of Pittsburgh. Sanchez's improved play bodes well for the Jets, but isn't enough to make him a fantasy option against a Bears team that has permitted the second fewest touchdown passes in the league. Sanchez has torn cartilage in his throwing shoulder, and one TD in the last month. ... Perhaps we should've seen Braylon Edwards' fluky 100-yard game in Week 15 coming, because he now has 100 yards in three straight Week 15s. More relevant for Sunday, Edwards averages 30 yards in three career Week 16s. ... If you're going to play a Jets receiver, it should be Santonio Holmes, despite a minor case of turf toe. Holmes' target count hasn't dipped under nine in the last month, and he easily leads the team with 42 over that span. Edwards is next with 26.

UPDATE: Coach Rex Ryan announced Thursday afternoon that Sanchez will be a game-time decision against the Bears. If you thought Sanchez had a weak arm, you're clearly not using backup Mark Brunell as a measuring stick. Avoid the Jets' passing game in Week 16.

Chicago ranks third in run defense and permits just 3.77 yards per carry, so you should be able to do better than LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene in championship week. Neither has found the end zone since Week 6, and Greene's brief midseason surge has come to a crashing halt down the stretch with a 3.53 yards-per-carry average in his last five games. LT's average over that span isn't much better at 3.54, so there's little separation between the two. Tomlinson hasn't exceeded 57 rushing yards since Week 5. ... The Bears are stingy against tight ends and Dustin Keller is averaging 26.8 yards in his last six games. He still hasn't scored since Week 4.



Tennessee @ Kansas City

Kenny Britt has emerged as one of the NFL's most dynamic wideouts, and his impact has been felt by others. Chris Johnson is the primary beneficiary, with a 116 total-yard average and nine TDs in Britt's nine appearances. Johnson is at 83.4 yards with two scores in Britt's five missed games. The Chiefs are only above average against the run, ranking 13th in rush defense and permitting 4.22 yards per carry. Johnson is the No. 6 fantasy back and a must-start this week. ... Avoid Titans tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs in the AFC. ... Only four defenses are stingier than Kansas City in terms of yards per pass attempt. Unless you're in a two-QB league, don't chase a banged-up Kerry Collins' five touchdowns in the last two weeks.

Britt's snaps have risen steadily since returning from a torn hamstring, and he overtook Randy Moss as the Titans' full-time split end in Week 15. He also has another favorable matchup this week. Tennessee's LWR, Britt will square off with Chiefs RCB Brandon Carr for the majority of Sunday's game. Carr is susceptible to long bombs, which is one of Britt's specialties. ... Nate Washington gets the tough matchup with Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers. Washington ranks 35th among receivers in fantasy scoring and is averaging a lousy 29.5 yards in his last four games. ... Avoid Titans tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs in the AFC.

Jamaal Charles let down fantasy owners in Week 14, but rediscovered dominant form with 153 total yards and a touchdown in last Sunday's defeat of St. Louis. Charles is up to 1,961 rushing yards in his last 17 games, averaging 6.60 yards per carry. The Titans rank 17th in run defense. ... Thomas Jones needs goal-line touchdowns to make a real dent in the week-to-week box score, because he's only averaging 3.08 yards per carry since the halfway point. Late-season fades are nothing new for Jones, who had similar issues last season in New York. He's a poor flex option.

Matt Cassel is off the injury report, but the Chiefs will stay run-heavy with their quarterback under three weeks removed from an appendectomy. It took Ben Roethlisberger five weeks to clear 200 passing yards after a similar procedure in 2008. This is also bad news for Dwayne Bowe. ... Bowe will see Cortland Finnegan in coverage for the majority of Week 16, and the Titans' feisty RCB will do his best to get under Bowe's skin. As noted in Mike Tanier's Going Deep column this week, Bowe is a "somewhat flaky" sort, and may be especially susceptible to Finnegan's tactics. With three catches in his last three games, Bowe is a risky WR2. ... The Titans don't defend tight ends well, but Tony Moeaki hasn't scored since Week 3 and ranks 21st in fantasy points at his position.

4:05PM ET Games

Indianapolis @ Oakland

The Jags' game plan in last week's loss to Indianapolis was crystal clear: Double Reggie Wayne, blitz Peyton Manning, and make the rest of the Colts beat them. This resulted in monster games for Austin Collie (8/87/2) and Donald Brown (14/129/1). Brown's day was fluky considering how often he ran into the second level untouched -- it wasn't a turning point in the disappointing former first-round pick's career. He didn't bust tackles or make defenders miss. Though the Raiders are vulnerable to the run, they also don't typically gear their defense to stop a particular player. With Joseph Addai (neck) and Mike Hart (ankle) potentially both back, Brown should be easy to sit in champions week. ... Returning to full health in Week 15, Jacob Tamme played 90.9 percent of Indianapolis' offensive snaps, after seeing just 46.6 percent the game before. Tamme caught seven balls and will benefit from Collie's absence over the middle and in the red zone this week.

The Raiders' No. 5 pass defense ranking looks swell on paper, but they've been torched by good passers. Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Schaub have combined to average 295 yards with an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio against Oakland this year. On fire again, Manning has multiple touchdowns in four straight games and at least 285 yards in four of his last five. Start 'em. ... Despite playing with Tim Tebow (eight completions) last week, Broncos split end Brandon Lloyd caught four balls for 79 yards and a TD against the Raiders. Lloyd's cause was helped greatly by a hobbled Nnamdi Asomugha (ankle), who played a season-low 21 snaps. Reggie Wayne is the Colts' split end, and owners shouldn't be scared to use him. Weather will certainly work in Wayne's favor. 54-degree temps and 10 MPH winds are in The Coliseum forecast. ... Blair White and Pierre Garcon have good matchups, but have proven to be risky plays. They're WR3 options.

Though Michael Bush vultured a pair of goal-line touchdowns last week (one in the first quarter and another in garbage time), Darren McFadden should be locked and loaded as an RB1 against the Colts' No. 28 run defense. Indy is especially vulnerable to big runs, allowing the fourth most 20-plus yard rushing attempts in the league and a whopping 4.74 yards per carry. McFadden just so happens to lead the NFL in 20-yard explosions despite two missed games. On top of his rushing numbers, McFadden is averaging 54.5 receiving yards per game over the last month. ... Bush does appear to have taken over as the Raiders' short-yardage specialist, but it's not enough to make him more than a desperation flex play. He'll have a real clunker if he doesn't find pay dirt.

The Colts have a top-11 pass defense, and it's not hard to imagine Dwight Freeney dominating Raiders rookie LT Jared Veldheer when Jason Campbell drops back. If Oakland is going to stay competitive, it'll be because of their rushing attack. Campbell posted a 1:2 TD-to-INT ratio and just 238 passing yards against a far worse Broncos pass defense last week. He's a QB2. ... Louis Murphy has one touchdown since Week 2 and had 14 yards on two targets in Week 15. He's a WR4 in fantasy leagues. ... Jacoby Ford continues to be an elite return-yardage league option, but shouldn't be trusted in standard settings with a two-catch, 31.3-yard average in his last three games. Owners can't rely on 71-yard reverses for touchdowns. ... If the Colts are tough on tight ends, it hasn't shown up recently. They've allowed four TDs to tight ends in their last three games. Zach Miller is the best bet for receptions, yards, and scores in Oakland this week.

San Diego @ Cincinnati

The Sunday forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for 28-30 degree temps, but just a 30 percent chance of rain and 10 MPH winds. Passing shouldn't be hindered. ... Philip Rivers' pass attempts are down, which has taken him way off the single-season passing record he appeared a good bet to bust at midseason. You can't bench him, of course, and certainly not against a Cincy defense that ranks second to last in sacks. The Bengals allowed two TDs, 9.7 yards per attempt, and a 76.0 completion rate to rookie Colt McCoy last week. ... Bengals CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph form an elite duo, but history favors Vincent Jackson. V-Jax whipped them for 108 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15 of last season, beating Joseph on a double move for his first score and Hall's jam at the line for the second. Jackson is our No. 7 overall receiver this week.

Malcom Floyd will be a game-time decision, and isn't worth the wait in a late game with two bum hamstrings. Floyd's presence also wouldn't hurt Jackson's outlook. V-Jax is the heavy favorite for targets. ... Antonio Gates (foot, toe) is out until the playoffs, assuming the Bolts qualify. Fill-in Randy McMichael is a low-upside option, and has a poor matchup against a Bengals defense that's surrendered just three touchdowns to tight ends in 14 games. ... Cincinnati did stifle a scuffling Peyton Hillis last week, but still ranks 22nd against the run and allows 4.58 yards per carry. In a game the Chargers should have no trouble controlling and moving the football, Mike Tolbert is a strong bet for a touchdown. An even timeshare with Ryan Mathews, however, makes Tolbert a poor bet top 70 rushing yards. Each player has 34 touches over the last two weeks.

San Diego ranks No. 1 in defense, No. 1 against the pass, and No. 2 against the run. While those figures should finally land DC Ron Rivera a head-coaching gig this offseason, they make it awfully difficult to get excited about any Bengal in fantasy championships. Cedric Benson would appear the premier play on Cincinnati's side after last week's 31/150/1 line, but it's not hard to imagine the Bolts pulling out in front early and forcing the Bengals into constant passing situations. Benson doesn't play in pass sets. He's a low-end RB2 with lots of downside. ... Also avoid Jermaine Gresham, who has one touchdown since Week 5 and six yards in the last two games combined.

With Terrell Owens (knee surgery) out for the season, Andre Caldwell takes over as the Bengals' full-time flanker. Caldwell will have his hands full with Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer, who according to Pro Football Focus is allowing just a 52.2 completion rate into his coverage. ... The Bengals are playing young players late in the year, so Chad Ochocinco saw a season-low 38 snaps last week. Assuming he's able to play through the painful bone spurs in his ankle this week, Ocho will continue to rotate evenly with Jerome Simpson in an obvious fantasy situation to avoid. ... Carson Palmer has three passing touchdowns in his last four games. He'll be of more assistance to owners of the Chargers' fantasy defense than two-quarterback leaguers this week.

Houston @ Denver

Vegas projects Texans-Broncos as the highest scoring on Sunday's slate, making Andre Johnson that much more difficult to worry about in a tough matchup with Champ Bailey. It's worth noting that Bailey has not "shadowed" No. 1 receivers quite as often since Broncos interim coach Eric Studesville took over prior to Week 14. Larry Fitzgerald had 72 yards on six catches against Denver two Sundays ago, and according to Pro Football Focus 53 of the yards and three of the catches were made versus defensive backs other than Bailey. Johnson and Bailey usually line up on opposite ends of the formation, so if the Broncos keep Bailey at left corner and A.J. runs his usual routes down the other sideline, Bailey won't be covering Johnson. He'll be on Kevin Walter.

Despite an elite corner in Bailey, Denver's pass defense has struggled this season. The league's 22nd-ranked unit permits the fourth most yards per attempt in the NFL, the second most 20-plus yard completions, and the seventh most passing TDs. Matt Schaub should be locked into lineups. He may be leaned on more heavily with Arian Foster (glute/ankle) potentially not 100 percent. ... Jacoby Jones' increased snaps and targets have resulted from comeback mode over the last two weeks, with Houston falling behind 21-0 in back-to-back games. He's a shaky WR3. ... Owen Daniels is still rotating with Joel Dreessen, and isn't quite the elite TE1 we envisioned. He's still worth a start for tight end-strapped owners against a Broncos defense giving up the fifth most fantasy points to TEs. ... Foster is the No. 1 player in fantasy, is fully expected to start, and faces off with Denver's No. 31 run defense. He only needs to make it through two quarters to go off.

Owners might see Houston's No. 32 rank against the pass and envision Tim Tebow as a quality play. Not smart. Entrusted to throw only 16 times last week (completing eight), Tebow's lone TD pass should've been picked off by Raiders CB Stanford Routt, and his fluky 40-yard touchdown run came on a busted play. The draw was designed for Correll Buckhalter, but Tebow blew the call and was given a missed assignment by Broncos coaches after film review. Tebow "led" Denver into the red zone once all game. Please, look elsewhere. ... The Broncos' run-first approach with Tebow under center does bode poorly for Brandon Lloyd, but the good news is that Lloyd led the team in targets in Tebow's first start and also gets favorable weather. The Invesco Field forecast includes next to no wind, zero chance of rain, and temps in the mid-50s. Lloyd isn't the WR1 he's been all season, but you can't sit him if you start three receivers. He'll be open.

Other Broncos receiver stats in Tebow's starting debut: Jabar Gaffney -- 1/32/0 on two targets; Eddie Royal (who oddly started at split end) -- 0/0/0 on three targets. ... Knowshon Moreno (ribs) is very questionable for Week 16. While his return to limited practice seems positive, the rule we often use when assessing banged-up players' chances of playing is that they're unlikely to do so when they don't finish the game before. Moreno, of course, didn't. Unless you're loaded with late-game options (Lance Ball doesn't count), Moreno is going to be difficult to wait for. The Texans rank ninth in the league in run defense and allow just 3.91 yards per carry. Houston could also very conceivably grab an early lead, forcing the Broncos to rely on the scattershot arm of Tebow and reducing rushing attempts. They're not stopping Arian Foster or Matt Schaub on Sunday.



4:15PM ET Games

NY Giants @ Green Bay

One thing that surprised me in Week 15 was the pass everyone gave Matt Flynn for running the crunch-time offense at molasses pace, costing Green Bay an opportunity to win the game. The awful clock management was attributed to Flynn's "inexperience," yet he's been in the offense three years and the No. 2 quarterback the entire time. I guess that's the break Flynn gets for playing adequately at New England against what's been one of the worst pass defenses in football all season. It's good news for the Packers (and my preseason Super Bowl pick) that Aaron Rodgers is back this week. ... Rodgers is No. 2 among quarterbacks in fantasy points-per-game, so he's a must-start despite a fairly difficult matchup with a Giants defense that ranks second in the league against the pass. The Lambeau Field forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of snow and 25-degree temperatures, but only 10-13 MPH winds. Passing should not be affected.

Greg Jennings has dabbled in the slot this season, but with Donald Driver healthy is now back at split end. Ranked fifth among fantasy wideouts, Jennings will face off with burnable RCB Terrell Thomas in a favorable matchup. According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas has given up more touchdowns this season than any Giants defensive back. ... James Jones had his biggest game in six weeks with Flynn under center, but New York doesn't often give up enough yards and TDs to support multiple big games for opposing pass catchers. Averaging 33.25 yards in Rodgers' last four starts, Jones is an extremely high-risk WR3. ... Having topped 31 yards once since Week 5, Driver is obviously hands-off in champions week. ... The Packers' run game should also be easy to avoid. There seem to be no set roles at this point, and the Giants have a top-ten run defense.

Though the Eagles are virtually certain to win the NFC East, the Giants can secure a Wild Card berth with a win at Lambeau. It's going to be a difficult day on offense, though. The Packers rank third against the pass and have permitted one of the best defensive TD-to-INT ratios in football (14:18), which doesn't bode well for NFL interception leader Eli Manning. Having topped 226 yards just once since Week 10, Manning is a low-end QB1. ... Hakeem Nicks should still have plenty of success, mostly because he's a dominant player. He's averaging seven catches for 87 yards with 10 touchdowns in the 11 full games he's played this season. ... Mario Manningham is coming off his best fantasy performance of the year, but also picked up a heel injury on top of his hip flexor strain. Manningham is shaping up as a boom-or-bost play, which is usually the case with him.

Behind Nicks, Kevin Boss looks like the safest bet for pass-catching stats on the Giants. Seeing an increased role due to possession WR Steve Smith's absences and later placement on injured reserve, Boss ranks second in the NFL in tight end fantasy points over the last five weeks. (Jason Witten is first.) With Packers OLB Clay Mathews' play also tailing off, Boss shouldn't be charged with as much blocking duty. Green Bay has allowed the fourth most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. ... Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both coming off scoreless games, but Bradshaw saw 21 touches to Jacobs' 12. Just based on that, Bradshaw is the slightly better play. Jacobs is a low-end RB2, but has plenty of upside for a flex position. The Packers surrender 4.63 yards a carry and rank 19th against the run. They also won't have stud DE Cullen Jenkins (calf).

Seattle @ Tampa Bay

We've discussed in this space how much better a quarterback Josh Freeman is and how much more successful the Bucs are when Freeman's pass attempts are down. This has remained evident in recent losses to Baltimore (37 attempts), Atlanta (38), and Detroit (32). Though Freeman is a heck of a young player and this matchup is right, the Bucs are more likely to execute a balanced game plan that limits Freeman's upside. Averaging under 200 yards a game since Week 10 with just four TDs in the last month, Freeman is a low-end QB1. ... Averaging 5.62 yards per carry with a pair of scores in his last three games, LeGarrette Blount should stay hot against Seattle's No. 21 run defense. Blount has at least 15 carries in five of his last six games. Just keep in mind that, with two catches all season, he's a far better bet in non-PPR than PPR.

While Freeman probably won't top 250 yards Sunday, he is likely to have success when he does drop back. The Seahawks rank 29th against the pass and have surrendered the most 20-plus yard completions in the league. Top CB Marcus Trufant is falling apart late in the year, with his history of back problems cropping up again. Trufant was unable to finish last week's game due to spasms. It adds up to a nice matchup for Mike Williams, whom the Bucs are making a concerted effort to get open with pre-snap motion and receiver screens. On pace for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, Williams is a quality WR2. ... Arrelious Benn took a backseat in the passing offense last week, catching three balls for 34 yards on four targets. Benn is a nice complement to Williams, but isn't a fantasy option. ... The Seahawks have allowed the 24th most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Bench Kellen Winslow if you have good alternatives.

Marshawn Lynch has shown improvement with a respectable (for him) 4.0 YPC average in his last three games. The uptick has coincided with a reduced role for Justin Forsett, who hasn't touched the football more than six times in a game since Week 11. While you're not going to find a more favorable matchup (Tampa allows a league-most 4.85 yards per carry), it would still be tough to rely on a back who's struggled so much all season in championship week. Lynch is a shaky flex play. ... Matt Hasselbeck continues to pile up turnovers, giving the ball to the other team a whopping 13 times compared to just four touchdowns in the last month. Clearly on a short leash, Hasselbeck was yanked for Charlie Whitehurst last week and isn't a good option regardless of the Bucs' struggles against the pass since losing top CB Aqib Talib to season-ending injured reserve.

On the bright side for Seattle's passing attack, Big Mike Williams is healthy. A target monster whenever he's been on the field this season, Williams tied for the league lead in the statistic last week and caught eight passes. He's a strong WR3 in PPR leagues. ... Ben Obomanu also has returned to the starting lineup, but caught just one pass for seven yards last week. Two of the passes thrown his way were intercepted, and his lone reception was caught behind the line of scrimmage. Definitely look elsewhere.

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

Michael Vick is the best quarterback play in the league this week. As Chris Wesseling noted in last Monday's Morning After column, Vick is averaging an NFL-high 29.7 standard league fantasy points per game. Aaron Rodgers is second with a 24-point average. Banged up throughout the secondary, Minnesota served up three touchdowns to Jay Cutler in Week 15. Entering the game, Cutler had multiple TD passes in just 4-of-12 weeks. ... Ranked tenth in fantasy receiver points, DeSean Jackson projects to see lots of Frank Walker in this one. Walker plays left corner when opponents use three receivers (which the Eagles do as often as any team), and D-Jax runs most of his routes against LCBs. One of the worst corners in football, Walker was easily burned by Devin Hester on a simple post route for a 15-yard score last week. ... Avoid Jason Avant, who will see plenty of Vikings shutdown CB Antoine Winfield in the slot. Avant has one TD all season.

Brent Celek has been maddeningly inconsistent and isn't worth the trouble against a Vikings defense permitting the fewest yards in the league to tight ends. ... Jeremy Maclin is the No. 12 receiver in fantasy, and like Jackson has a favorable matchup. Maclin will see RCB Asher Allen for most of the game. ... Minnesota ranks eighth in run defense, but LeSean McCoy is the No. 5 fantasy back and an every-week starter. He's also ripped up run defenses ranked higher than the Vikings this season. McCoy had 138 total yards and a touchdown against the 49ers (No. 7 against the run) in Week 5, and 120 total yards against the Bears (No. 3) in Week 12, combining for 5.18 yards per carry in those games. The Eagles are a safe bet to win the time of possession battle against the Joe Webb-led Vikings, so McCoy should not struggle for 20-25 touches.

Skittish in the pocket and as green as quarterbacks get, Joe Webb's playmaking ability still shined through from a fantasy perspective in last Monday's blowout loss. Webb racked up 11 standard league points in 2 1/2 quarters. The issue is not if Webb is a good passer. It's whether he can score points as a WR3/flex in Yahoo leagues, and he delivered despite not even starting the game. Though the Birds' pass rush is more fearsome than Chicago's and will give the rookie fits, Webb clearly has the green light to run when he gets through a read or two. Make no mistake: Webb is a high-risk play at Philly. But his ceiling is also sky high with another full week of first-team practice reps under his belt. Brett Favre (concussion) is not expected to play. ... Webb's poor passing skills are still enough to severely hinder Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin's fantasy outlooks. While both are worth WR3 consideration simply because of their talent, they're also threats for 23-yard games as Rice showed last Monday night. Harvin had 72 yards and a score, although just two of his seven targets came from Webb, who played over half the game.

Visanthe Shiancoe was the one Vikings pass catcher to benefit from Webb, matching a season-high with six catches. Five of the completions came from the rookie. Shiancoe is a low-upside play just by virtue of the fact that Minnesota is unlikely to have passing success Sunday night, but desperate owners could do worse. ... Adrian Peterson's (thigh, knee) status is perhaps the hottest topic of championship week, and at this point there's just no way to tell if he's going to play. As of Thursday, A.D. was still experiencing pain and couldn't run at full speed. Owners can't count on him unless they have Toby Gerhart or another viable late-game option in reserve. Peterson will be a full-blown game-time decision against an Eagles defense that ranks 11th overall in the NFL and just barely surrenders 4.0 yards per carry. Peterson remains an RB1 if he starts the game.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Vegas projects Saints-Falcons as Week 16's highest scoring game. We know by now who to sit and start on both sides, but the wait to Monday should be well worth it for an indoor matchup that will decide a large chunk of fantasy champions. ... Atlanta defends the run (No. 12) better than the pass (No. 20), so Drew Brees is an easy call. He lit up the Falcons for 365 yards and three TDs in their early-season meeting. ... In six domed games since Week 4, Marques Colston is averaging seven catches for 92 yards with six touchdowns. Trot him out. ... Lance Moore has scored in three of his last four, but is playing just 48.2 percent of the offensive snaps, and 45.2 percent in the last month. Not being a full-time player makes Moore subject to clunkers. He's a risky play.

Robert Meachem (48th in receiver scoring) and Devery Henderson (80th) are too inconsistent for reliability, though it's worth noting that Meachem's played more snaps than Henderson in four of the last five weeks. ... Chris Ivory is undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy in an effort to fix his hamstring. This treatment is often reserved for tears and severe strains. Listed as questionable, Ivory isn't worth the wait against a tough run defense. ... With Ivory out in Week 15, the Saints were comfortable enough with Pierre Thomas to give him just six carries at Baltimore. Focusing on kickoff returns, he won't be an option in Week 16. ... Reggie Bush is averaging nine touches for 33 scoreless yards per game since returning from a fractured fibula. He, too, would be a poor fantasy bet. ... A potential shootout makes Jimmy Graham somewhat attractive, but he only plays in passing sets on a Danario Alexander-like 24.6 snaps per game. Graham is an awfully big risk.

Winners of eight straight, the Falcons enter Monday with plenty to play for because they've not even formally clinched the NFC South, let alone a No. 1 or 2 seed. I was asked this week if the Falcons would rest Michael Turner. Not happening. ... Falcons statistics from their Week 3 game at New Orleans: Turner -- 30/114/1; Matt Ryan -- 228 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; Roddy White -- 5/69/1; Tony Gonzalez -- 8/110/1. ... White is the No. 4 receiver in fantasy, so he's more than earned a start in championship week. It certainly doesn't hurt that Saints LCB Jabari Greer is iffy with a knee sprain. ... New Orleans showed willing to let Gonzo beat them in the aforementioned game, at the expense of double teaming White. Gonzalez capitalized for his best fantasy effort of the season. The Saints have also given up the third most receptions in the league to tight ends.

Michael Jenkins' Week 15 touchdown was fluky considering it's just his second since Week 14 of the 2009 season, and third since Week 9 of 2008. Leave him on waivers. ... The one usual must-start I could see sitting for someone like Jon Kitna is Matt Ryan. Though the game does project as high scoring, New Orleans has surrendered the fewest passing scores in the league. Scratch this if Saints top cover corner Greer doesn't play. Ryan is the No. 7 fantasy quarterback, after all. ... As Ray Rice showed in Week 15, New Orleans' defense is most vulnerable against the run (4.37 YPC, 13 rushing TDs allowed). Turner ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing, and third in rushing scores. He's an elite play.