Running Backs1.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis2.
Ray Rice3.
Rashard Mendenhall4.
Michael Turner5.
LeSean McCoy6.
Matt ForteThe Ravens finally have Rice humming just in time for the playoffs. Green-Ellis, Mendenhall, and Turner are easily the best bets for a multi-touchdown performance in any one game. McCoy and Forte both receive considerable upgrades in PPR formats.
7.
Jamaal Charles8.
Pierre Thomas9.
Joseph Addai10.
Danny Woodhead11.
Shonn GreeneCharles is easily the best running back in the postseason, but I'm finding it hard to muster up confidence in the Chiefs this week. Thomas and Chris Ivory both have question marks on health and workload. Addai is the Colts' goal-line back, pushing him ahead of Dom Rhodes and
Donald Brown. Woodhead is a sneaky pick on the Super Bowl favorite. The Jets are saddling Greene up for a heavy workload, just as they did last year.
Update: The Saints placed Chris Ivory (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Pierre Thomas' status for the Seattle game remains uncertain. He's expected to be listed as "questionable" on the team's official injury report. Julius Jones would pick up extra snaps if Thomas can't go.
12.
LaDainian Tomlinson13.
Reggie Bush14.
Brandon Jackson15.
Thomas Jones16.
Marshawn LynchStarters with question marks or shaky matchups. Tomlinson could morph into a third-down back with the Jets planning on pounding Greene. Bush stepped up on the big stage in last year's playoffs, but he's had just one decent game since returning from a broken leg. The Packers can't run and the Seahawks will be forced to go away from Lynch once the Saints jump out to an early lead. Jones is running on fumes.
17.
Willis McGahee18.
Dominic Rhodes19.
Donald Brown20.
John Kuhn21.
Jason Snelling22.
Chester Taylor23. Julius Jones
24.
Justin ForsettThe best of the backups, timeshare backs, and pass-catchers. Rhodes has outplayed Brown of late, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ended up sharing equally with Addai. McGahee and Kuhn both receive a boost in TD-heavy formats. Snelling, Taylor, and Forsett are purely third-down backs.
25.
Jerome Harrison26.
Isaac Redman27.
James Starks28. Dimitri Nance
29.
Mewelde Moore30.
Joe McKnightThe running back dregs. Harrison won't see more than 3-4 touches per game barring injury to McCoy. The same goes for Redman, Moore, and McKnight. Starks and Nance remain behind an underwhelming
Brandon Jackson.
Wide Receivers1.
Mike Wallace2.
Roddy White3.
Wes Welker4.
DeSean Jackson5.
Greg Jennings6.
Pierre Garcon7.
Reggie Wayne8.
Jeremy Maclin9.
Deion BranchThe cream of the crop. Wallace is playing as well as any receiver in the NFL, and the Steelers have a legit chance at the Super Bowl. White is the safest bet for double-digit targets, but will he play two games? Jackson, Maclin, and Jennings are boom-or-bust picks. Wayne gets docked for the Revis Island factor, leaving Garcon as the top playmaker against the Jets. Welker and Branch get the extra credit that goes to Super Bowl favorites.
10.
Hines Ward11.
Dwayne Bowe12.
Marques Colston13.
Santonio Holmes14.
Anquan Boldin15.
Derrick Mason16.
Johnny Knox17.
Braylon EdwardsWard's legs are gone, but I wouldn't bet against the cagey veteran at playoff time. This is essentially a red-light grade for Colston. Let someone else gamble on him a week and half after arthroscopic knee surgery. Boldin is the Ravens' best receiver, but Mason remains
Joe Flacco's security blanket. I just don't have the confidence that Holmes, Edwards, and Knox will play more than one game.
18.
Donald Driver19.
Robert Meachem20. Lance Moore
21.
James Jones22.
Blair White23.
Mike Williams24.
Devery Henderson25.
Emmanuel Sanders26.
Devin Hester27.
Earl Bennett28.
Jordy Nelson29.
Michael JenkinsThe second, third, and fourth receivers on the Saints and Packers aren't reliable, but any one of them could strike for a 100-yard performance. White won't top 50 yards, but he's a decent bet for a score in any game. Give Hester a huge boost in return-yardage leagues.
30.
Jerricho Cotchery31.
Jason Avant32.
Brandon Tate33.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh34.
Ben Obomanu35.
Dexter McCluster36. Donte Stallworth
37.
Harry Douglas38.
Chris Chambers39.
Ruvell MartinThe best of the rest. It's a hodge-podge of No. 3 and No. 4 receivers without steady offensive roles.
Tight Ends1.
Rob Gronkowski2.
Jacob Tamme3.
Tony GonzalezOnly
Jason Witten scored more fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season than Gronkowski, who is coming off his first career 100-yard performance in the regular-season finale. Tamme and Gonzalez are close, with the former a better pick in yardage-heavy leagues and the latter more likely to find the end zone.
4.
Todd Heap5.
Jimmy Graham6.
Aaron Hernandez7.
Heath Miller8.
Brent Celek9.
Dustin KellerHeap looked healthy while leading the Ravens in receiving yards in Week 17. Superfreak Graham has emerged as
Drew Brees' version of Gronk. Hernandez can break out for a monster game at any time, but there's downside, too, considering his fickle snap counts. Miller, Celek, and Keller are all top-10 talents lacking consistency.
10.
Jeremy Shockey11.
Greg Olsen12.
Tony Moeaki13.
John Carlson14.
Andrew QuarlessWith Graham emerging, Shockey hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 4. Olsen doesn't have a big enough role in Mike Martz's offense. Moeaki could be one and done. Carlson and Quarless are afterthoughts in the passing game.
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Dan O'Brien, a senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can't remember a playoff team with longer odds than Seattle's 250-1 this year. "
It's tough to imagine," O'Brien said. "You'd have to go back to a team having to beat the dominant (Chicago) Bears or dominant San Francisco) 49ers back in the 1980s. Even then you're talking about only two layers (of playoffs), not that third game. That's another multiplier as well."
The first team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record in a non-strike season is a gift from the fantasy playoff gods. In leagues where a position is forfeited when a starter's team loses, it's a good idea to load up on Saints for an early head start on the competition.
After scoring a league-leading 518 points, the Patriots are strong bets to play two home games before the Super Bowl. New England leads the playoff field with 6-5 odds, in large part because
Tom Brady has lost just one game since the start of the 2007 season. That dominance is reflected in this year's playoff rankings.
Rounding out the Super Bowl odds as off Tuesday morning:
Steelers 9-2
Falcons 5-1
Eagles 8-1
Bears 10-1
Saints 10-1
Ravens 11-1
Packers 12-1
Colts 14-1
Jets 25-1
Chiefs 40-1
In addition to the Saints, I plan on loading up on Ravens and Colts in the wild card round. The Chiefs went 8-2 against teams that finished with a losing record and 2-4 against teams .500 or better. I still don't understand what the Jets hang their hat on right now. They're certainly not a dominant defensive team, and they haven't run the ball well in a meaningful game since the first half of the season.
The stars on the Packers and Eagles are ultimate boom-or-bust picks. That game is the biggest pick'em matchup of the wild card round. It's not just that either team could win, but also that either team could blow the other out with the right momentum. It's not hard to envision Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin catching fire and torching the Green Bay secondary. It seems just as likely, however, that Dom Capers will dial up the pressure on Vick just as the Vikings and Giants have done to success.
Where it gets exceedingly murky in the NFC is the divisional round. The Saints, Eagles, and Packers are every bit as talented as the Bears and Falcons. The Eagles blew out the Falcons early in the season, the Saints knocked them off at the Georgia Dome in Week 16, and the Packers were one Aaron Rodgers fumble away from pulling off the same feat in Atlanta. With an 11-5 record artificially inflated by bad calls in both games to the Lions, matchups against backup quarterbacks, and just plain luck, the Bears just aren't that imposing. Sorry, Bears fans. I love your franchise, but this year's team leaves me with no confidence.
On to the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva's how-to column from a few years ago. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football, except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it. Myfantasyleague.com is hosting free playoff leagues.
Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
Brady is playing as well right now as any quarterback has ever played the position. He's working on streaks of 28 consecutive home wins as a starter, 335 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and nine straight games with two or more passing TDs and no interceptions. The Saints aren't losing to the Seahawks, so Brees is almost guaranteed two games.
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Peyton Manning
5. Michael Vick
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Matt Ryan
8. Jay Cutler
9. Joe Flacco
Don't sleep on the Steelers' passing game. With the spotlight shining on a porous offensive line, it's gone unnoticed that rookie receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown have emerged next to Mike Wallace to inject a dynamic element into the aerial attack. Manning has traditionally owned Rex Ryan defenses. Vick and Rodgers were the top two fantasy QBs this season, and one of them will get at least two games. The Falcons and Bears won't be big favorites in their divisional round contests. Flacco's playoff struggles the past two seasons are reason for pause.
10. Mark Sanchez
11. Matt Cassel
12. Charlie Whitehurst
13. Matt Hasselbeck
Let someone else gamble on Sanchez's bum shoulder. I'm not buying Cassel's numbers artificially inflated by the weakest pass defense schedule I've ever seen. The Seahawks are preparing both quarterbacks to start this week's game. It wouldn't be a bad idea to get Whitehurst the playoff experience since Hasselbeck is unlikely to return in 2011.
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Running Backs
1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
2. Ray Rice
3. Rashard Mendenhall
4. Michael Turner
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Matt Forte
The Ravens finally have Rice humming just in time for the playoffs. Green-Ellis, Mendenhall, and Turner are easily the best bets for a multi-touchdown performance in any one game. McCoy and Forte both receive considerable upgrades in PPR formats.
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Pierre Thomas
9. Joseph Addai
10. Danny Woodhead
11. Shonn Greene
Charles is easily the best running back in the postseason, but I'm finding it hard to muster up confidence in the Chiefs this week. Thomas and Chris Ivory both have question marks on health and workload. Addai is the Colts' goal-line back, pushing him ahead of Dom Rhodes and Donald Brown. Woodhead is a sneaky pick on the Super Bowl favorite. The Jets are saddling Greene up for a heavy workload, just as they did last year.
Update: The Saints placed Chris Ivory (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Pierre Thomas' status for the Seattle game remains uncertain. He's expected to be listed as "questionable" on the team's official injury report. Julius Jones would pick up extra snaps if Thomas can't go.
12. LaDainian Tomlinson
13. Reggie Bush
14. Brandon Jackson
15. Thomas Jones
16. Marshawn Lynch
Starters with question marks or shaky matchups. Tomlinson could morph into a third-down back with the Jets planning on pounding Greene. Bush stepped up on the big stage in last year's playoffs, but he's had just one decent game since returning from a broken leg. The Packers can't run and the Seahawks will be forced to go away from Lynch once the Saints jump out to an early lead. Jones is running on fumes.
17. Willis McGahee
18. Dominic Rhodes
19. Donald Brown
20. John Kuhn
21. Jason Snelling
22. Chester Taylor
23. Julius Jones
24. Justin Forsett
The best of the backups, timeshare backs, and pass-catchers. Rhodes has outplayed Brown of late, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ended up sharing equally with Addai. McGahee and Kuhn both receive a boost in TD-heavy formats. Snelling, Taylor, and Forsett are purely third-down backs.
25. Jerome Harrison
26. Isaac Redman
27. James Starks
28. Dimitri Nance
29. Mewelde Moore
30. Joe McKnight
The running back dregs. Harrison won't see more than 3-4 touches per game barring injury to McCoy. The same goes for Redman, Moore, and McKnight. Starks and Nance remain behind an underwhelming Brandon Jackson.
Wide Receivers
1. Mike Wallace
2. Roddy White
3. Wes Welker
4. DeSean Jackson
5. Greg Jennings
6. Pierre Garcon
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Jeremy Maclin
9. Deion Branch
The cream of the crop. Wallace is playing as well as any receiver in the NFL, and the Steelers have a legit chance at the Super Bowl. White is the safest bet for double-digit targets, but will he play two games? Jackson, Maclin, and Jennings are boom-or-bust picks. Wayne gets docked for the Revis Island factor, leaving Garcon as the top playmaker against the Jets. Welker and Branch get the extra credit that goes to Super Bowl favorites.
10. Hines Ward
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Marques Colston
13. Santonio Holmes
14. Anquan Boldin
15. Derrick Mason
16. Johnny Knox
17. Braylon Edwards
Ward's legs are gone, but I wouldn't bet against the cagey veteran at playoff time. This is essentially a red-light grade for Colston. Let someone else gamble on him a week and half after arthroscopic knee surgery. Boldin is the Ravens' best receiver, but Mason remains Joe Flacco's security blanket. I just don't have the confidence that Holmes, Edwards, and Knox will play more than one game.
18. Donald Driver
19. Robert Meachem
20. Lance Moore
21. James Jones
22. Blair White
23. Mike Williams
24. Devery Henderson
25. Emmanuel Sanders
26. Devin Hester
27. Earl Bennett
28. Jordy Nelson
29. Michael Jenkins
The second, third, and fourth receivers on the Saints and Packers aren't reliable, but any one of them could strike for a 100-yard performance. White won't top 50 yards, but he's a decent bet for a score in any game. Give Hester a huge boost in return-yardage leagues.
30. Jerricho Cotchery
31. Jason Avant
32. Brandon Tate
33. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
34. Ben Obomanu
35. Dexter McCluster
36. Donte Stallworth
37. Harry Douglas
38. Chris Chambers
39. Ruvell Martin
The best of the rest. It's a hodge-podge of No. 3 and No. 4 receivers without steady offensive roles.
Tight Ends
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jacob Tamme
3. Tony Gonzalez
Only Jason Witten scored more fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season than Gronkowski, who is coming off his first career 100-yard performance in the regular-season finale. Tamme and Gonzalez are close, with the former a better pick in yardage-heavy leagues and the latter more likely to find the end zone.
4. Todd Heap
5. Jimmy Graham
6. Aaron Hernandez
7. Heath Miller
8. Brent Celek
9. Dustin Keller
Heap looked healthy while leading the Ravens in receiving yards in Week 17. Superfreak Graham has emerged as Drew Brees' version of Gronk. Hernandez can break out for a monster game at any time, but there's downside, too, considering his fickle snap counts. Miller, Celek, and Keller are all top-10 talents lacking consistency.
10. Jeremy Shockey
11. Greg Olsen
12. Tony Moeaki
13. John Carlson
14. Andrew Quarless
With Graham emerging, Shockey hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 4. Olsen doesn't have a big enough role in Mike Martz's offense. Moeaki could be one and done. Carlson and Quarless are afterthoughts in the passing game.
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