Playoff fantasy pools: they are a great way to recoup some money, reclaim bragging rights, or just keep a Saturday night game interesting when the Saints are beating the Seahawks by 24 points at halftime.
There are hundreds of variations on the "playoff fantasy" format: auctions, weekly redrafts, single-elimination tournaments and so on. There's only one constant: just like in the regular season, you must draft good players who produce big numbers.
We wrap up this season's 'Going Deep' series with some no-nonsense advice about potential postseason fantasy stars: who is slumping, who could get lost in the shuffle, and who can help you keep the fun flowing into February.
The Falcons Triplets: No playoff team is as predictable or reliable as the Falcons. You know the ball will get funneled through three players: quarterback
Matt Ryan, running back
Michael Turner and receiver
Roddy White. In a postseason full of running back committees and multi-receiver confusion, the Falcons offer safe harbor: they aren't suddenly going to start targeting Ellis Weems a dozen times in the red zone.
The Falcons throw an average of 11.2 passes per game to White, making him the best receiver in the fantasy playoff pool. Turner has had at least 15 carries every week except Week 2, when he was hurt early in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Turner has zero value as a receiver, with three catches for 12 yards in the last nine games. In a PPR league,
Ray Rice or Shady McCoy is a much more appealing option than Turner.
Ryan may get overlooked in the rush to acquire Brady-Brees-Vick-Manning. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game except the season opener and has had nine multi-touchdown games. You can pencil in a 22-of-36, 250 yard, two-touchdown performance almost every time he takes the field. Wait for Ryan to fall to you, and you can concentrate on getting the most from your backs and receivers.
The Ravens Passing Game: Anquan Boldin has been targeted just nine times in the last three weeks, catching just five passes for 26 yards. That's a mind-boggling slump –
Jason Snelling has more than twice as many receiving yards as Boldin in the last three weeks – and it's a byproduct of the fact that the Ravens just aren't passing very much.
Joe Flacco has thrown just 19.7 passes per game in the last three games, and most of those passes have been short dump-offs, not the usual bombs that drive the Ravens offense. John Harbaugh may keep things conservative against a Chiefs defense that allows opponents to complete just 54.9 percent of passes and has a pair of solid young cornerbacks.
The Ravens slump may be a boon to bargain hunters: Boldin,
Derrick Mason and
Todd Heap may slip through the cracks of a draft or auction. If you select one of them, you should balance your ticket with a high-target complementary receiver. Try to get
Greg Jennings,
Wes Welker or
Jeremy Maclin to support Boldin or Mason, and you will have one receiver catching 6-7 passes while the Ravens wait for the bombs to start dropping again.
Playoff fantasy pools: they are a great way to recoup some money, reclaim bragging rights, or just keep a Saturday night game interesting when the Saints are beating the Seahawks by 24 points at halftime.
There are hundreds of variations on the "playoff fantasy" format: auctions, weekly redrafts, single-elimination tournaments and so on. There's only one constant: just like in the regular season, you must draft good players who produce big numbers.
We wrap up this season's 'Going Deep' series with some no-nonsense advice about potential postseason fantasy stars: who is slumping, who could get lost in the shuffle, and who can help you keep the fun flowing into February.
The Falcons Triplets: No playoff team is as predictable or reliable as the Falcons. You know the ball will get funneled through three players: quarterback
Matt Ryan, running back
Michael Turner and receiver
Roddy White. In a postseason full of running back committees and multi-receiver confusion, the Falcons offer safe harbor: they aren't suddenly going to start targeting Ellis Weems a dozen times in the red zone.
The Falcons throw an average of 11.2 passes per game to White, making him the best receiver in the fantasy playoff pool. Turner has had at least 15 carries every week except Week 2, when he was hurt early in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Turner has zero value as a receiver, with three catches for 12 yards in the last nine games. In a PPR league,
Ray Rice or Shady McCoy is a much more appealing option than Turner.
Ryan may get overlooked in the rush to acquire Brady-Brees-Vick-Manning. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game except the season opener and has had nine multi-touchdown games. You can pencil in a 22-of-36, 250 yard, two-touchdown performance almost every time he takes the field. Wait for Ryan to fall to you, and you can concentrate on getting the most from your backs and receivers.
The Ravens Passing Game: Anquan Boldin has been targeted just nine times in the last three weeks, catching just five passes for 26 yards. That's a mind-boggling slump –
Jason Snelling has more than twice as many receiving yards as Boldin in the last three weeks – and it's a byproduct of the fact that the Ravens just aren't passing very much.
Joe Flacco has thrown just 19.7 passes per game in the last three games, and most of those passes have been short dump-offs, not the usual bombs that drive the Ravens offense. John Harbaugh may keep things conservative against a Chiefs defense that allows opponents to complete just 54.9 percent of passes and has a pair of solid young cornerbacks.
The Ravens slump may be a boon to bargain hunters: Boldin,
Derrick Mason and
Todd Heap may slip through the cracks of a draft or auction. If you select one of them, you should balance your ticket with a high-target complementary receiver. Try to get
Greg Jennings,
Wes Welker or
Jeremy Maclin to support Boldin or Mason, and you will have one receiver catching 6-7 passes while the Ravens wait for the bombs to start dropping again.
The Bears Receivers: Five different Bears receivers caught between 40 and 51 passes this year, including running back
Matt Forte and tight end
Greg Olsen. No Bears receiver caught more than five touchdown passes. The democratic approach will drive you crazy in the playoffs: draft
Devin Hester, and you can be certain
Johnny Knox will catch two touchdown passes.
Knox led the Bears in targets this season, with 100 passes thrown his way; no one else had more than 73. More importantly,
Earl Bennett led the team with 18 red zone targets, but all of those passes yielded just two red zone touchdowns. (Bennett's ankle injury should not be a problem in two weeks). Olson was targeted 15 times in the red zone, Knox 12, and Hester 5. Despite getting shut out by the Packers, Knox is the best fantasy option among the receivers: a lot of offense flows through him, and his quick-strike capability gives you a shot at a 60-yard touchdown. Forte and Olsen are solid options at their positions, but remember that they (like the Falcons triplets) cannot help you this week.
The Saints Running Backs: Just when you think you have the Saints figured out,
Pierre Thomas gets hurt again,
Chris Ivory suffers an ankle injury and
Reggie Bush wakes up for 70 yards on nine carries against the Buccaneers. The Saints should be a playoff fantasy treasure trove – a great offense that is all-but-certain to play at least two games – but their confusion at running back could cause a headache.
By now, you know that Bush only plays well when everyone has given up on him. He's still worth a look in deep leagues or PPR leagues, but don't waste a high pick or a lot of auction bucks on him. Thomas is expected back for the Seahawks game, and his Week 16 production – 19-63-1 on the ground, 7-39 as a receiver – suggests that he is a worthwhile second running back. Ivory is out and
Julius Jones is still around to muck things up. Don't draft him.
The Seahawks: Mike Williams is a viable receiver to get you through this week. He has been targeted 16 times in the red zone this year, and with 100 total targets, he's the closest thing to a reliable weapon in the Seahawks' arsenal. He will also probably come far cheaper than
Lance Moore or
Derrick Mason, and you can use him as a fire-and-forget weapon while you wait for
Roddy White or
Mike Wallace to take the stage.
Marshawn Lynch is now featured back in Seattle, with
Justin Forsett in a reserve role, but "featured" is a relative term for a team that will probably be blown out on Saturday night. Lynch has not had a 100-yard game all season, and he regularly leads the Seahawks with just 10-14 carries per game. Lynch and Williams are more valuable in leagues that allow weekly re-drafts than in leagues that expect you to carry one roster through the postseason: if the Seahawks are still around by Sunday, I will eat my calculator.
Defenses and Tight Ends: The Packers and Jets will be the defenses of choice in most leagues, but make sure you know your scoring system. If sacks are worth a lot, the Packers make a great choice. If return touchdowns fetch a premium, look to the Bears (Hester), the Ravens (
Ed Reed still looks to pitch and score every time he touches the ball) or even the Seahawks for a week (
Leon Washington). The Jets recorded just 40 sacks and 17 interceptions this year: solid numbers, but their reputation outstrips their production, and
Peyton Manning appears to have gotten past his interception jag.
Remember when the Saints had the most opportunistic defense in the NFL? Interception totals and defensive touchdowns vary widely from year to year, so their nine-interception performance this season wasn't really a surprise to people who study statistics. That being said, their defense enters the postseason undervalued: They are facing the Seahawks in the first round. They have recorded nearly as many sacks (33) as the Jets,
Reggie Bush has been brutally bad on punt returns, which means he is suddenly going to break one. (That's not a statistically valid observation. It just always seems to happen).
As for tight ends, there's Olsen, Heap,
Tony Gonzalez,
Tony Moeaki,
Aaron Hernandez,
Rob Gronkowski,
Brent Celek,
Dustin Keller,
Heath Miller,
Jimmy Graham (if he's healthy) and
Jacob Tamme. If you can't find a perfectly good tight end at the end of a draft/auction, you just aren't looking.
Signing Off: That's it for 'Going Deep' this season. It has been a blast, and I have loved the feedback you have given me. You can catch me throughout the playoffs breaking down play diagrams on NBCSports.com, talking stats and strategy at Football Outsiders, and previewing games at the Fifth Down Blog in the New York Times. We will meet again sometime in the offseason. Enjoy the playoffs, and good luck in your NCAA Tourney Pools, rotisserie baseball leagues, fantasy badminton, or whatever gets you through those long, football-free months!