At least three of the four wild-card round games were thrillers, setting the bar high for the divisional round. This is typically the most exciting weekend of football during the NFL season, though, so expectations were already innately lofty.
Looking at this weekend's slate, I only see one game that has serious blowout potential: Jets-Pats on Sunday night. Oddly, Saturday's schedule is the most enticing. Although I clearly expect the Packers to win (I picked them as Super Bowl champs
during the preseason), Green Bay-Atlanta probably has the highest scoring potential of the divisional round. Steelers-Ravens projects as the lowest-scoring affair.
4:30 ET Saturday: Ravens @ SteelersWhen the Ravens Have the BallFacing a Steelers defense that dominates in the trenches and on both edges, the Ravens' best area to attack is the perimeter. Corner
Bryant McFadden is the weak link in the Pittsburgh secondary. Bookend
Ike Taylor often "shadows" No. 1 receivers, and will likely follow
Anquan Boldin for most of Saturday's game. Baltimore play-caller Cam Cameron can create favorable matchups by spreading out the defense with three- and four-receiver sets, allowing quarterback
Joe Flacco to pick on McFadden when he's in man coverage on
Derrick Mason,
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or
Donte' Stallworth. A short passing game in which Flacco gets the football out quickly could also mitigate Steelers outside rushers
LaMarr Woodley and
James Harrison's impact on the game.
The Steelers held Ravens tailback
Ray Rice to 3.06 yards per carry and no touchdowns in two meetings this season. Rice was also a non-factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 27 yards combined. Cameron can't afford to abandon his most dynamic player again, even if the matchup is unfavorable. Though Rice is unlikely to have success inside the tackles, the Ravens can keep him dangerous by getting him the ball in space. Rice doesn't have to be the focal point of Cameron's game plan, but he must stay involved with 15-20 touches on the defensive exterior.
When the Steelers Have the BallPlaying the most efficient football of his life, Steelers quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger compiled an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in final eight regular season games. It's more impressive when you consider Big Ben stayed highly aggressive, averaging 8.21 yards per throw in his last seven outings. A big reason for Pittsburgh's increasingly dangerous passing attack has been the emergence of Pro Bowl snub
Mike Wallace. Clearly surpassing
Hines Ward as Roethlisberger's go-to receiver, the deep threat leads the NFL in 20-plus yard receptions and the AFC in yards-per-catch average. Wallace also tied John Stallworth's franchise record with seven 100-yard games during the regular season. He'll command Baltimore's defensive attention on Saturday.
These AFC North teams split the regular season series, and for the Steelers there was a stark contrast in run-to-pass ratio in the two affairs. Pittsburgh threw 38 times compared to 24 rushes in its Week 13 win over Baltimore, but had 21 passes to 27 runs in a Week 4 loss. Though the disparity was due mostly to Roethlisberger's suspension from the first game, it's fair to believe the Steelers are better off attacking the Ravens through the air. Baltimore held Steelers running back
Rashard Mendenhall to 2.82 yards per carry this season, and in his career Mendenhall's average is 3.03 against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is more likely to keep the chains moving with the pass.
CoachesBaltimore coach John Harbaugh is coming off his fourth career playoff win in six tries, but he is 2-5 all time against the Steelers. Just one of those seven games was decided by more than four points, so history says this one's going to be close. In three seasons as Ravens head coach, Harbaugh is just 12-12 in games decided by a touchdown or less. His overall record is 36-18
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's only two losses to Harbaugh have come without
Ben Roethlisberger, due to injury or suspension. Tomlin is 6-0 all time against the Ravens when Big Ben starts. Tomlin also has bulletin board material after Ravens defensive end
Terrell Suggs showed up to practice Wednesday donning a t-shirt that flipped the bird to Pittsburgh.
X-factorsBilly CundiffWe mentioned that scoring in Ravens-Steelers is likely to be tight. The oddsmakers agree, tabbing Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. So if the game goes as expected, special teams could play a major role. Ravens kicker
Billy Cundiff tied a league record with 40 regular season touchbacks, and including the playoffs has drilled 29 of his 32 field goal tries. Steelers kicker
Shaun Suisham was signed off the street at midseason, so Baltimore has an obvious edge in this area.
Emmanuel SandersA third-round rookie from SMU, Sanders overtook
Antwaan Randle El to be the Steelers' No. 3 receiver at midseason and played 60.8 percent of Pittsburgh's snaps in the final eight games.
Hines Ward was a full-time player all along, but Sanders nearly matched the veteran in receptions and yards during the second half, also scoring one more touchdown. Sanders offers better athleticism at this stage of Ward's career, and might move past him to be Roethlisberger's No. 2 receiver on Saturday. The Ravens held Ward to just three regular season catches for 27 yards.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Ravens 14
8:00 ET Saturday: Packers @ FalconsWhen the Packers Have the BallWith an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 67.4 completion rate in his last three games,
Aaron Rodgers has Green Bay's offense clicking at the right time. Rodgers should've had a fourth touchdown in last Sunday's wild-card win over the Eagles, but
James Jones dropped a perfectly placed pass after beating shutdown cornerback
Asante Samuel down the right sideline. Having accounted for 395 yards against them in Week 12, Rodgers has already shown that the Falcons' pass defense is an unworthy opponent. Top receiver
Greg Jennings was particularly dominant in that game, racking up 119 yards on five receptions. It's really not a matter of IF the Packers' passing game will light up the Georgia Dome. It's a matter of just how many points they'll score.
Packers rookie power back
James Starks is generating a lot of media hype following a breakout, 132-yard performance in Philadelphia. The vast majority of Starks' yardage came after contact, but not to be overlooked was Green Bay's victory in the trenches. Packers center
Scott Wells and right guard
Josh Sitton overwhelmed the Eagles' interior. They'll have the opportunity for a repeat effort against an undersized Atlanta front four on Saturday night. The Falcons served up 4.63 yards per rushing attempt during the regular season -- the sixth worst mark in football.
When the Falcons Have the BallThe Falcons run a ball-control offense. Atlanta ranked fifth in the NFL in regular season rushing attempts, and just 25th in yards per throw. Quarterback
Matt Ryan's job is to avoid turnovers and deliver completions to Atlanta's lone play-maker in the passing game -- NFL receptions leader
Roddy White.
Michael Turner is the offensive centerpiece, since Week 7 averaging 23 touches a game. Turner's stretch-run dip in production may be cause for concern, however. Whereas he averaged 4.82 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12, Turner plummeted to 2.67 with two fumbles in the final five games. Ideally for the Falcons, a first-round playoff bye helped Turner get his legs back.
In addition to Turner's production slip, tight end
Tony Gonzalez's worst statistical season in 12 years was a key story buried beneath 13 Falcons wins. Turning 35 next month, Gonzalez struggles to create separation, and his regular season yards-per-reception average of 9.37 was easily a career low. While Gonzo remains Ryan's top red-zone target, he won't force Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' hand as much as the future Hall of Famer would have in years past. On paper at least, the Packers project to give the Falcons more matchup problems than vice versa.
CoachesMike Smith has compiled a 33-15 record in three regular seasons as Falcons coach, but lost his only previous playoff game 30-24 to the Cardinals two Januaries ago. Smith did run the defense for a 2007 Jaguars team that advanced to the divisional round. Overall as a head coach and coordinator, however, Smith is 1-3 in the postseason and has been outscored by a margin of 89-59 in the losses.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy improved his postseason record to 2-2 in last weekend's win over Philadelphia. 1.5-point underdogs in the wild-card round, the Packers are again projected to lose by the Vegas oddsmakers. The margin given this week is 2.5 points. McCarthy is 50-34 all time as Packers head coach, including the playoffs.
X-factorsJordy NelsonThe Packers have a tendency to increase Nelson's snaps at the expense of
James Jones in weeks following Jones' all-too-common gaffes, and his embarrassing drop in Philadelphia may necessitate more action for Nelson against the Falcons. Nelson caught all five of his pass targets for 61 yards and a score in Green Bay's Week 12 loss to Atlanta. He did a terrific job to keep the play alive on his 10-yard touchdown catch in that game, hauling in an absolute rocket from
Aaron Rodgers after out-running Falcons free safety
Thomas DeCoud to the left corner of the end zone.
Michael JenkinsJenkins' greatest strength is his downfield blocking ability, but the Falcons are going to need more from him on Saturday night. With Packers top cover corner
Tramon Williams likely on
Roddy White and
Charles Woodson seeing his fair share of
Tony Gonzalez, Jenkins could find himself one-on-one with undrafted rookie
Sam Shields for much of the divisional round. While Shields has been a real find for Green Bay GM Ted Thompson, he gives up five inches and over 30 pounds to Jenkins. In order for the Falcons to beat the Packers, Jenkins must win this matchup.
Prediction: Packers 27, Falcons 20
At least three of the four wild-card round games were thrillers, setting the bar high for the divisional round. This is typically the most exciting weekend of football during the NFL season, though, so expectations were already innately lofty.
Looking at this weekend's slate, I only see one game that has serious blowout potential: Jets-Pats on Sunday night. Oddly, Saturday's schedule is the most enticing. Although I clearly expect the Packers to win (I picked them as Super Bowl champs
during the preseason), Green Bay-Atlanta probably has the highest scoring potential of the divisional round. Steelers-Ravens projects as the lowest-scoring affair.
4:30 ET Saturday: Ravens @ SteelersWhen the Ravens Have the BallFacing a Steelers defense that dominates in the trenches and on both edges, the Ravens' best area to attack is the perimeter. Corner
Bryant McFadden is the weak link in the Pittsburgh secondary. Bookend
Ike Taylor often "shadows" No. 1 receivers, and will likely follow
Anquan Boldin for most of Saturday's game. Baltimore play-caller Cam Cameron can create favorable matchups by spreading out the defense with three- and four-receiver sets, allowing quarterback
Joe Flacco to pick on McFadden when he's in man coverage on
Derrick Mason,
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or
Donte' Stallworth. A short passing game in which Flacco gets the football out quickly could also mitigate Steelers outside rushers
LaMarr Woodley and
James Harrison's impact on the game.
The Steelers held Ravens tailback
Ray Rice to 3.06 yards per carry and no touchdowns in two meetings this season. Rice was also a non-factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 27 yards combined. Cameron can't afford to abandon his most dynamic player again, even if the matchup is unfavorable. Though Rice is unlikely to have success inside the tackles, the Ravens can keep him dangerous by getting him the ball in space. Rice doesn't have to be the focal point of Cameron's game plan, but he must stay involved with 15-20 touches on the defensive exterior.
When the Steelers Have the BallPlaying the most efficient football of his life, Steelers quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger compiled an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in final eight regular season games. It's more impressive when you consider Big Ben stayed highly aggressive, averaging 8.21 yards per throw in his last seven outings. A big reason for Pittsburgh's increasingly dangerous passing attack has been the emergence of Pro Bowl snub
Mike Wallace. Clearly surpassing
Hines Ward as Roethlisberger's go-to receiver, the deep threat leads the NFL in 20-plus yard receptions and the AFC in yards-per-catch average. Wallace also tied John Stallworth's franchise record with seven 100-yard games during the regular season. He'll command Baltimore's defensive attention on Saturday.
These AFC North teams split the regular season series, and for the Steelers there was a stark contrast in run-to-pass ratio in the two affairs. Pittsburgh threw 38 times compared to 24 rushes in its Week 13 win over Baltimore, but had 21 passes to 27 runs in a Week 4 loss. Though the disparity was due mostly to Roethlisberger's suspension from the first game, it's fair to believe the Steelers are better off attacking the Ravens through the air. Baltimore held Steelers running back
Rashard Mendenhall to 2.82 yards per carry this season, and in his career Mendenhall's average is 3.03 against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is more likely to keep the chains moving with the pass.
CoachesBaltimore coach John Harbaugh is coming off his fourth career playoff win in six tries, but he is 2-5 all time against the Steelers. Just one of those seven games was decided by more than four points, so history says this one's going to be close. In three seasons as Ravens head coach, Harbaugh is just 12-12 in games decided by a touchdown or less. His overall record is 36-18
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's only two losses to Harbaugh have come without
Ben Roethlisberger, due to injury or suspension. Tomlin is 6-0 all time against the Ravens when Big Ben starts. Tomlin also has bulletin board material after Ravens defensive end
Terrell Suggs showed up to practice Wednesday donning a t-shirt that flipped the bird to Pittsburgh.
X-factorsBilly CundiffWe mentioned that scoring in Ravens-Steelers is likely to be tight. The oddsmakers agree, tabbing Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. So if the game goes as expected, special teams could play a major role. Ravens kicker
Billy Cundiff tied a league record with 40 regular season touchbacks, and including the playoffs has drilled 29 of his 32 field goal tries. Steelers kicker
Shaun Suisham was signed off the street at midseason, so Baltimore has an obvious edge in this area.
Emmanuel SandersA third-round rookie from SMU, Sanders overtook
Antwaan Randle El to be the Steelers' No. 3 receiver at midseason and played 60.8 percent of Pittsburgh's snaps in the final eight games.
Hines Ward was a full-time player all along, but Sanders nearly matched the veteran in receptions and yards during the second half, also scoring one more touchdown. Sanders offers better athleticism at this stage of Ward's career, and might move past him to be Roethlisberger's No. 2 receiver on Saturday. The Ravens held Ward to just three regular season catches for 27 yards.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Ravens 14
8:00 ET Saturday: Packers @ FalconsWhen the Packers Have the BallWith an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 67.4 completion rate in his last three games,
Aaron Rodgers has Green Bay's offense clicking at the right time. Rodgers should've had a fourth touchdown in last Sunday's wild-card win over the Eagles, but
James Jones dropped a perfectly placed pass after beating shutdown cornerback
Asante Samuel down the right sideline. Having accounted for 395 yards against them in Week 12, Rodgers has already shown that the Falcons' pass defense is an unworthy opponent. Top receiver
Greg Jennings was particularly dominant in that game, racking up 119 yards on five receptions. It's really not a matter of IF the Packers' passing game will light up the Georgia Dome. It's a matter of just how many points they'll score.
Packers rookie power back
James Starks is generating a lot of media hype following a breakout, 132-yard performance in Philadelphia. The vast majority of Starks' yardage came after contact, but not to be overlooked was Green Bay's victory in the trenches. Packers center
Scott Wells and right guard
Josh Sitton overwhelmed the Eagles' interior. They'll have the opportunity for a repeat effort against an undersized Atlanta front four on Saturday night. The Falcons served up 4.63 yards per rushing attempt during the regular season -- the sixth worst mark in football.
When the Falcons Have the BallThe Falcons run a ball-control offense. Atlanta ranked fifth in the NFL in regular season rushing attempts, and just 25th in yards per throw. Quarterback
Matt Ryan's job is to avoid turnovers and deliver completions to Atlanta's lone play-maker in the passing game -- NFL receptions leader
Roddy White.
Michael Turner is the offensive centerpiece, since Week 7 averaging 23 touches a game. Turner's stretch-run dip in production may be cause for concern, however. Whereas he averaged 4.82 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12, Turner plummeted to 2.67 with two fumbles in the final five games. Ideally for the Falcons, a first-round playoff bye helped Turner get his legs back.
In addition to Turner's production slip, tight end
Tony Gonzalez's worst statistical season in 12 years was a key story buried beneath 13 Falcons wins. Turning 35 next month, Gonzalez struggles to create separation, and his regular season yards-per-reception average of 9.37 was easily a career low. While Gonzo remains Ryan's top red-zone target, he won't force Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' hand as much as the future Hall of Famer would have in years past. On paper at least, the Packers project to give the Falcons more matchup problems than vice versa.
CoachesMike Smith has compiled a 33-15 record in three regular seasons as Falcons coach, but lost his only previous playoff game 30-24 to the Cardinals two Januaries ago. Smith did run the defense for a 2007 Jaguars team that advanced to the divisional round. Overall as a head coach and coordinator, however, Smith is 1-3 in the postseason and has been outscored by a margin of 89-59 in the losses.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy improved his postseason record to 2-2 in last weekend's win over Philadelphia. 1.5-point underdogs in the wild-card round, the Packers are again projected to lose by the Vegas oddsmakers. The margin given this week is 2.5 points. McCarthy is 50-34 all time as Packers head coach, including the playoffs.
X-factorsJordy NelsonThe Packers have a tendency to increase Nelson's snaps at the expense of
James Jones in weeks following Jones' all-too-common gaffes, and his embarrassing drop in Philadelphia may necessitate more action for Nelson against the Falcons. Nelson caught all five of his pass targets for 61 yards and a score in Green Bay's Week 12 loss to Atlanta. He did a terrific job to keep the play alive on his 10-yard touchdown catch in that game, hauling in an absolute rocket from
Aaron Rodgers after out-running Falcons free safety
Thomas DeCoud to the left corner of the end zone.
Michael JenkinsJenkins' greatest strength is his downfield blocking ability, but the Falcons are going to need more from him on Saturday night. With Packers top cover corner
Tramon Williams likely on
Roddy White and
Charles Woodson seeing his fair share of
Tony Gonzalez, Jenkins could find himself one-on-one with undrafted rookie
Sam Shields for much of the divisional round. While Shields has been a real find for Green Bay GM Ted Thompson, he gives up five inches and over 30 pounds to Jenkins. In order for the Falcons to beat the Packers, Jenkins must win this matchup.
Prediction: Packers 27, Falcons 20
1:00 ET Sunday: Seahawks @ BearsWhen the Seahawks Have the BallMatt Hasselbeck turned in a season-best game in last week's upset of New Orleans, but the Seahawks' 35-year-old quarterback no longer has coverage-challenged Saints safety
Roman Harper to pick apart. The Bears field one of the league's top safety duos in
Danieal Manning and
Chris Harris, who helped Chicago finish in the top five in regular season interceptions, but bottom five in touchdown passes allowed. Seahawks receiver
Mike Williams dominated Bears corner
Charles Tillman for many of his 10 catches and 123 yards in the teams' Week 6 meeting, but coach Lovie Smith indicated this week that stopping Williams is the focus of Chicago's defensive approach. To pull off a second straight mammoth upset, it's going to require another genius game plan from Seahawks offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates. The Bears are 10-point favorites.
Like Hasselbeck, tailback
Marshawn Lynch is unlikely to pull off another heroic effort in the wake of his 67-yard Run of the Year against New Orleans. After playing the divisional round at home, the Seahawks travel to Soldier Field to face a Bears defense that got last week off and ranked No. 2 against the run in 2010. In eight away games this season, Lynch is averaging a putrid 2.78 yards per carry. The Bears have also forced a league-high 15 fumbles by opposing rushers. Lynch has had ball security issues as a Seahawk, fumbling four times this season and losing all four.
When the Bears Have the BallWith coordinator Mike Martz reining in his offense during the season's second half, quarterback
Jay Cutler hasn't cleared 250 passing yards in the last ten weeks. Running back
Matt Forte has overtaken Cutler as Chicago's most valuable skill player, touching the ball 20 times a game since Week 9, and peeling off 5.77 yards per carry in the last month and a half. The Seahawks ranked 21st against the run during the regular season, so Forte should continue to impose his will on Sunday afternoon. Seattle allowed Saints backs to total 192 yards and three TDs last weekend.
The Bears will still use the run to set up deep shots, and Seattle remains vulnerable to the passing game. Saints quarterback
Drew Brees racked up 404 yards and two TDs in the wild-card round, despite Seattle frequently dropping seven or eight defenders into coverage and getting pressure from its front four. Because the Bears will have more rushing success than the Saints did, the Seahawks simply won't be able to play the same sort of style. Keep in mind that Chicago No. 1 receiver
Johnny Knox had his best game of the season against Seattle in Week 6 (five catches, 120 yards).
CoachesO.K., so maybe the "Twelfth Man" thing was for real. Seattle first-year coach Pete Carroll's team is 6-3 at home this season, but 2-6 in away games. The Seahawks go on the road for this one, of course, which stacks the odds against them.
Lovie Smith is in his seventh season as Bears coach. This is his first playoff berth since winning the NFC title during the 2006-2007 season, which ended against the Colts in the Super Bowl. All told, Smith is 2-2 in postseason games. He was one-and-done in his only other trip (2005).
X-factorsOlindo MareLike the rest of the Seahawks, Mare's home and away splits are lopsided. He's nailed 14-of-15 field goals with 11 touchbacks at Qwest Fiekl, but is just 11-of-15 with eight touchbacks in away games. In all likelihood, the Seahawks will need a perfect day from Mare to keep this game close. Mare's fellow specialist, punter
Jon Ryan, will also be charged with keeping game-changing Bears returner
Devin Hester at bay with directional punting. Hester led the league in regular season punt returns for touchdowns, punt return average, and punt returns of 20-plus yards.
Earl BennettAs tight end
Greg Olsen has taken a backseat in coordinator Mike Martz's offense, Bennett has leaped forward as the No. 2 wideout on the Bears. A slot receiver with great hands and a knack for finding soft spots in zone defenses, Bennett didn't drop a pass all season while unseating
Devin Hester and
Devin Aromashodu on the depth chart down the stretch. The Seahawks were willing to give up short passes over the middle in last week's win, and that's where Bennett does most of his work. 100 percent after a late-season ankle injury, Bennett will be a chain mover on Sunday.
Prediction: Bears 20, Seahawks 10
4:30 ET Sunday: Jets @ PatriotsWhen the Patriots Have the BallThe Pats finished the regular season ranked first in both points scored and turnover differential, each by a wide margin. Quarterback
Tom Brady compiled an NFL-best touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 37:5, and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. In the Pats' Week 13 matchup with these same Jets, Brady completed 72.4 percent of his 29 pass attempts for 326 yards and four touchdowns. Brady dominated that game with quick-outs that allowed his receivers to rack up yards after the catch. Slot receiver
Wes Welker caught seven passes for 80 yards and a touchdown, passing-down back
Danny Woodhead led New England with 104 receiving yards, and
Deion Branch,
Aaron Hernandez, and
Brandon Tate all found the end zone in the 45-3 blowout.
Usually pass-happy in the red zone, the Patriots have discovered a true finisher at tailback in former undrafted free agent
BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Nicknamed "Law Firm" because of his lengthy, hyphenated name, Green-Ellis scored 13 regular season touchdowns, including two in Week 13. Closing particularly strong, the north/south-running power back averaged 4.65 yards per carry from Week 8 on. The Jets have one of the top run defenses in football, but their primary focus will be to stop Brady. Green-Ellis won't face any eight-man fronts on Sunday.
When the Jets Have the BallThe Jets' loss of mauling right tackle
Damien Woody to a torn Achilles' tendon this week is cause for major concern. Woody was New York's best run blocker, and wasn't a liability in pass protection. Look for Patriots coach Bill Belichick, the NFL's preeminent game planner, to attack backup right tackle
Wayne Hunter. A seven-year veteran, Hunter has just five career starts and struggled mightily while filling in for Woody in the final four regular season games. It's especially worrisome for rotating Jets tailbacks
LaDainian Tomlinson and
Shonn Greene. They won't have nearly as much daylight on power runs to the strong side.
The Patriots are most vulnerable in the secondary, so the Jets must have improved performance from
Mark Sanchez to keep pace with New England's scoring. It's just becoming difficult to have confidence in the second-year Jets quarterback. Completing a miserable 55.0 percent of his passes on the season, Sanchez has thrown one touchdown pass compared to seven turnovers in the last month and a half. It doesn't help that
Santonio Holmes appears to be playing at less than 100 percent. After battling late-season turf toe, Holmes is on this week's injury report with a quadricep ailment. He had a crucial drop in last week's win over Indianapolis.
CoachesJust four coaches in NFL history have more postseason wins than New England's Bill Belichick, and he can tie Don Shula for second most all time by running the table this year. Belichick's .750 win percentage is second to only Vince Lombardi among coaches with at least five postseason appearances. Head to head against Rex Ryan, however, Belichick splits the series at 2-2.
The Jets lost their last matchup with the Pats 45-3, so there was no good reason for all their trash talk this week. It's understandable coming from coach Rex Ryan -- he was trying to take pressure off his players -- but
Antonio Cromartie's swipes at
Tom Brady only stand to fuel Tom Terrific's fire. It's also an indication that Ryan doesn't have total control of his locker room. Ryan will have to send plenty of safety help to Cromartie's side of the field, because Brady will attack the lesser of New York's cornerback duo early and often.
X-factorsJerricho CotcheryCotchery has been a non-factor since losing his starting job to
Santonio Holmes in Week 5. Dealt with injuries and reduced playing time, Cotchery is coming off his least productive regular season in six years while averaging a career-low 10.56 yards per catch. Where he can make a difference is in the punt return game. Cotchery showed he's back to full speed on a 15-yard return in the wild card round, and he had another 15-yarder in Week 17. The Jets' offense is likely to struggle, so they'll need all the special teams and field-position help they can get.
Danny WoodheadThe Pats don't have a true No. 1 receiver for
Darrelle Revis to "shadow" all over the field, which makes the New England offense even more difficult for the Jets to defend. While Revis will likely move around the formation and see time against
Wes Welker,
Deion Branch, and even tight end
Rob Gronkowski, Woodhead is one Patriot we know the shutdown cornerback won't be covering. Medically cleared after a Week 17 concussion, Woodhead racked up 104 yards on four catches against the Jets six weeks ago, and is averaging nearly six yards per carry. He'll get the ball 10-12 times Sunday night and give the slow Jets linebackers fits in open space.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 17