The point spread for Super Bowl XLV is 2.5, the slimmest margin in 27 years. The
over-under is 44.5. The Packers hold advantages in top-to-bottom talent and roster health. The Steelers counter with Super Bowl resumes and coach Mike Tomlin's 5-1 playoff record.
Let's take a look at each position on both sides.
My prediction is at the end of the column.
QuarterbackGreen Bay:
Aaron RodgersThe NFC's best quarterback with the top all-around skill set regardless of conference, Rodgers has compiled a 23:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last 11 games. His 13:3 career postseason ratio is similarly dominant. In this year's playoffs, Rodgers has engineered three straight road wins by a combined score of 90 to 51. If we're strictly talking quarterback play -- not Super Bowl wins and "intangibles" -- Rodgers gets the edge over
Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh:
Ben RoethlisbergerBig Ben enters his third Super Bowl with one loss since mid-November and a 10-2 lifetime playoff record. He has three INTs compared to 13 all-purpose TDs in the last ten weeks. What Roethlisberger lacks in flashy passing stats he makes up for in toughness, aggressiveness, and sheer wins. He has a difficult matchup, however, versus a Packers defense that ranked No. 5 against the pass during the regular season and has a league-high 30 interceptions through 19 games.
Edge: PackersRunning BackGreen Bay:
James StarksA sixth-round rookie and regular season non-factor, Starks has emerged as the NFL's playoff rushing leader. A closer look at his per-play production reveals a middling talent. Starks lacks big-play ability (just one run of 20-plus yards on 70 attempts), and is averaging 3.76 yards per postseason carry. While Starks is capable of killing the clock and getting what's blocked, he isn't a difference maker. Starks is also pulled in favor of
Brandon Jackson on all passing downs.
Pittsburgh:
Rashard MendenhallHead to head in terms of position, the running game is an area in which Pittsburgh has a clear advantage over Green Bay. An every-down back unlike Starks, Mendenhall exploded for 121 yards on 27 carries (4.48 average) against the Jets' third-ranked run defense in the divisional round. Whereas the Packers' ground game won't have room to run against Pittsburgh's impenetrable front seven, Mendenhall has the potential to be a deciding factor in Super Bowl XLV.
Edge: SteelersWide Receiver/Tight EndGreen Bay
No NFL team boasts a more formidable pass catching corps than the Pack, which has produced four wideouts with at least 565 yards. The group is headlined by deep threat
Greg Jennings, who ranked fourth in the league in regular season receiving yardage and averaged eight catches for 115.5 yards in playoff wins over Atlanta and Chicago. "Backups"
James Jones and
Jordy Nelson have traded off heroic performances. Trusty slot receiver
Donald Driver rounds out the unit.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's wideout corps has received a major late-season boost from explosive rookies
Antonio Brown and
Emmanuel Sanders. Their emergence has been timely with 34-year-old
Hines Ward slowing down. Ward is still is a devastating downfield run blocker, but hasn't topped 45 receiving yards in seven weeks. Arguably the most dangerous receiver on either side in the Super Bowl,
Mike Wallace is the Steelers' deep ball specialist. Tight end
Heath Miller is a reliable third-down target.
Edge: PackersOffensive LineGreen Bay
The Packers are potent in the front five, executing a zone-blocking running scheme and holding top pass rushers
Julius Peppers and
Trent Cole sack-less in the playoffs.
John Abraham did get to
Aaron Rodgers once, but that was Abraham's lone tackle of the divisional round. 34-year-old left tackle
Chad Clifton still gets it done in pass pro, and rookie right tackle
Bryan Bulaga is capable of battling
LaMarr Woodley to a draw. Right guard
Josh Sitton is Green Bay's finest run blocker.
Pittsburgh
This is Pittsburgh's glaring weakness, particularly if rookie Pro Bowler
Maurkice Pouncey doesn't play. The center's status appears doubtful due to a high sprain and broken bone in his left ankle. If Pouncey is inactive, the Steelers will start four projected backups against Defensive Player of the Year candidate
Clay Matthews and company. It's a good thing quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger is powerful enough to shake off hits, because he's going to take plenty of them.
Edge: PackersDefensive LineGreen Bay
The Packers and Steelers run 3-4 defenses with three down linemen on first and second down, and four to five rushers in three-point stances in passing situations. The front three is a strength on both sides. Green Bay nose tackle
B.J. Raji is on an epic tear with 16 tackles, five sacks, five pass breakups, and an interception return for a touchdown in his last eight games. Left end
Ryan Pickett is a space eater, while right end
Cullen Jenkins is an underrated pass rusher.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers won't get back rehabbing Pro Bowler
Aaron Smith for Super Bowl XLV, but
Ziggy Hood has solidified the left end position. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-low 62.1 rushing yards per game since Hood took over, and the 2009 first-round pick has supplemented the pass rush with four sacks in his last six games. Still going strong at age 33, five-time Pro Bowl nose tackle
Casey Hampton is a true clogger on run downs. Right end
Brett Keisel can collapse the pocket.
Edge: Tie
The point spread for Super Bowl XLV is 2.5, the slimmest margin in 27 years. The
over-under is 44.5. The Packers hold advantages in top-to-bottom talent and roster health. The Steelers counter with Super Bowl resumes and coach Mike Tomlin's 5-1 playoff record.
Let's take a look at each position on both sides.
My prediction is at the end of the column.
QuarterbackGreen Bay:
Aaron RodgersThe NFC's best quarterback with the top all-around skill set regardless of conference, Rodgers has compiled a 23:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last 11 games. His 13:3 career postseason ratio is similarly dominant. In this year's playoffs, Rodgers has engineered three straight road wins by a combined score of 90 to 51. If we're strictly talking quarterback play -- not Super Bowl wins and "intangibles" -- Rodgers gets the edge over
Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh:
Ben RoethlisbergerBig Ben enters his third Super Bowl with one loss since mid-November and a 10-2 lifetime playoff record. He has three INTs compared to 13 all-purpose TDs in the last ten weeks. What Roethlisberger lacks in flashy passing stats he makes up for in toughness, aggressiveness, and sheer wins. He has a difficult matchup, however, versus a Packers defense that ranked No. 5 against the pass during the regular season and has a league-high 30 interceptions through 19 games.
Edge: PackersRunning BackGreen Bay:
James StarksA sixth-round rookie and regular season non-factor, Starks has emerged as the NFL's playoff rushing leader. A closer look at his per-play production reveals a middling talent. Starks lacks big-play ability (just one run of 20-plus yards on 70 attempts), and is averaging 3.76 yards per postseason carry. While Starks is capable of killing the clock and getting what's blocked, he isn't a difference maker. Starks is also pulled in favor of
Brandon Jackson on all passing downs.
Pittsburgh:
Rashard MendenhallHead to head in terms of position, the running game is an area in which Pittsburgh has a clear advantage over Green Bay. An every-down back unlike Starks, Mendenhall exploded for 121 yards on 27 carries (4.48 average) against the Jets' third-ranked run defense in the divisional round. Whereas the Packers' ground game won't have room to run against Pittsburgh's impenetrable front seven, Mendenhall has the potential to be a deciding factor in Super Bowl XLV.
Edge: SteelersWide Receiver/Tight EndGreen Bay
No NFL team boasts a more formidable pass catching corps than the Pack, which has produced four wideouts with at least 565 yards. The group is headlined by deep threat
Greg Jennings, who ranked fourth in the league in regular season receiving yardage and averaged eight catches for 115.5 yards in playoff wins over Atlanta and Chicago. "Backups"
James Jones and
Jordy Nelson have traded off heroic performances. Trusty slot receiver
Donald Driver rounds out the unit.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's wideout corps has received a major late-season boost from explosive rookies
Antonio Brown and
Emmanuel Sanders. Their emergence has been timely with 34-year-old
Hines Ward slowing down. Ward is still is a devastating downfield run blocker, but hasn't topped 45 receiving yards in seven weeks. Arguably the most dangerous receiver on either side in the Super Bowl,
Mike Wallace is the Steelers' deep ball specialist. Tight end
Heath Miller is a reliable third-down target.
Edge: PackersOffensive LineGreen Bay
The Packers are potent in the front five, executing a zone-blocking running scheme and holding top pass rushers
Julius Peppers and
Trent Cole sack-less in the playoffs.
John Abraham did get to
Aaron Rodgers once, but that was Abraham's lone tackle of the divisional round. 34-year-old left tackle
Chad Clifton still gets it done in pass pro, and rookie right tackle
Bryan Bulaga is capable of battling
LaMarr Woodley to a draw. Right guard
Josh Sitton is Green Bay's finest run blocker.
Pittsburgh
This is Pittsburgh's glaring weakness, particularly if rookie Pro Bowler
Maurkice Pouncey doesn't play. The center's status appears doubtful due to a high sprain and broken bone in his left ankle. If Pouncey is inactive, the Steelers will start four projected backups against Defensive Player of the Year candidate
Clay Matthews and company. It's a good thing quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger is powerful enough to shake off hits, because he's going to take plenty of them.
Edge: PackersDefensive LineGreen Bay
The Packers and Steelers run 3-4 defenses with three down linemen on first and second down, and four to five rushers in three-point stances in passing situations. The front three is a strength on both sides. Green Bay nose tackle
B.J. Raji is on an epic tear with 16 tackles, five sacks, five pass breakups, and an interception return for a touchdown in his last eight games. Left end
Ryan Pickett is a space eater, while right end
Cullen Jenkins is an underrated pass rusher.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers won't get back rehabbing Pro Bowler
Aaron Smith for Super Bowl XLV, but
Ziggy Hood has solidified the left end position. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-low 62.1 rushing yards per game since Hood took over, and the 2009 first-round pick has supplemented the pass rush with four sacks in his last six games. Still going strong at age 33, five-time Pro Bowl nose tackle
Casey Hampton is a true clogger on run downs. Right end
Brett Keisel can collapse the pocket.
Edge: TieLinebackerGreen Bay
The Packers' linebackers aren't as good as Pittsburgh's -- no one's are -- but they're awfully close. Headlined by relentless edge rusher
Clay Matthews (17 sacks), the second level of Green Bay's defense is effective both at bringing heat and defending the run.
Desmond Bishop is a thumper inside. One mismatch that could prove advantageous to Pittsburgh is if fellow middle 'backer A.J. Hawk gets caught in man coverage against
Heath Miller or
Hines Ward. Hawk doesn't move well in space.
Pittsburgh
James Harrison has 14 tackles and three sacks in the postseason, which is pretty impressive when you consider the No. 2-seed Steelers have only played two playoff games. Inside 'backers
Lawrence Timmons and
James Farrior have chipped in 32 more stops, and bookend pass rusher
LaMarr Woodley has two quarterback takedowns. Ask any talent evaluator around the league which team's linebacker corps is the best, and it's a safe bet that over 25 would say Pittsburgh.
Edge: SteelersDefensive BackGreen Bay
The Packers have held No. 1 receivers
DeSean Jackson,
Roddy White, and
Johnny Knox to an unremarkable average of 53.3 yards in three playoff games. They've combined for one touchdown -- by White in divisional-round garbage time. A big reason for that is shutdown corner
Tramon Williams. Putting it all together, Green Bay DBs have picked off five postseason passes. There's no liability in this secondary with
Sam Shields developing into a ball-hawking complement to Williams, slot corner
Charles Woodson, and sticky-fingered safety
Nick Collins.
Pittsburgh
Strong safety
Troy Polamalu is an All-Pro, but Pittsburgh's secondary is vulnerable otherwise. The cornerbacks rely heavily on front-seven pressure to make their jobs easier, because most of them can't cover. Nos. 2 and 3 corners
Bryant McFadden and
William Gay are particular liabilities. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, where Packers quarterback
Aaron Rodgers is historically deadly. In 10 career dome games, he averages 265 passing yards with an 18:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 106.4 passer rating. Gay and McFadden must come up with the games of their lives.
Edge: PackersPlacekickerGreen Bay:
Mason CrosbyIncluding the playoffs, Crosby is 24-of-31 on field goal tries with five touchbacks. The strong-legged kicker was perfect indoors during the regular season. Though it's probably slight, Green Bay has the edge here because the Steelers trot out a midseason street free agent at kicker.
Pittsburgh:
Shaun SuishamSuisham went 14-for-15 on regular season field goals after replacing
Jeff Reed in Week 11, but is 5-of-9 lifetime in the playoffs. He missed a 43-yard try at the end of the first half of Pittsburgh's divisional-round win over Baltimore. The Steelers hope the Super Bowl isn't decided by kicks.
Edge: PackersKick ReturnerGreen Bay:
James StarksIt's safe to say the Packers won't win Super Bowl XLV on kickoff returns. Green Bay has eight returns through three playoff games, and not one has exceeded 20 yards. Doubling as the feature running back, Starks leads the Pack with five postseason returns and is averaging 14 yards per attempt. DBs
Charles Woodson and
Sam Shields can bring back kickoffs in a pinch.
Pittsburgh:
Antonio BrownStatistics say Pittsburgh has a clear head-to-head advantage in kickoff returners. After averaging 23.4 yards per attempt with an 89-yard touchdown in the regular season, Brown has topped 20 yards on 5-of-7 playoff kick returns. Brown is quicker than Starks with much better long speed.
Edge: SteelersPunterGreen Bay:
Tim MasthayMasthay's statistical averages aren't overwhelming, but he's gaining steam as one of the NFL's top punters after consistently pinning the Bears deep in the NFC Championship Game.
Devin Hester averaged just five yards on three punt returns, and Masthay complemented a 65-yard moonshot with five punts inside the Chicago 20-yard line. During the regular season, over 60 percent of Masthay's punts were either fair caught -- allowing no return -- or landed inside the opposing 20.
Pittsburgh:
Jeremy KapinosKapinos was signed off the street in early December after starter
Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL. Ironically the Packers' punter in 2009, the 26-year-old journeyman averaged just 41.1 yards per regular season punt to rank 32nd in the league. His miserable net average of 32.3 ranked 35th.
Edge: PackersPunt ReturnerGreen Bay:
Tramon WilliamsAlso a shutdown cornerback defensively, Williams has provided some postseason sparks with three punt returns of eight or more yards. During the regular season, he averaged 8.0 yards per return with three of 20 yards or longer. Williams also ranked fifth in the league in fair catches, however, and fumbled two punts. Ball security in the return game will be crucial for Green Bay.
Pittsburgh:
Antwaan Randle ElRandle El used to be one of the NFL's most dangerous returners, but he's lost several steps. The 31-year-old managed an average of 4.0 yards per punt return in the regular season and was more likely to call for a fair catch. Pittsburgh would be better off using
Antonio Brown on punts, but Randle El has been special teams coach Al Everest's choice through two playoff games.
Edge: PackersHead CoachGreen Bay: Mike McCarthy
The offensive-minded McCarthy improved his career playoff record to 4-2 in Green Bay's NFC title game win over Chicago, and his all-time win percentage stands at 60.5. McCarthy lacks his opposing coach's Super Bowl experience, of course, and entering this year's postseason was 1-for-3 in playoff games.
Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin
A defensive mind, Tomlin is 5-1 lifetime in the playoffs with a Super Bowl win on his resume (SB XLIII). All time, Tomlin has won 64 percent of his games. The 38-year-old Tomlin is the youngest head coach in NFL history to guide his team to two Super Bowl appearances in three years.
Edge: SteelersPrediction: Packers 27, Steelers 24.
I've been
picking Green Bay since May, so now's no time to back down. The loss of Pouncey may prove the difference in the game. The Steelers could probably get away with fill-in Legursky against the Bengals or Browns, but Raji is playing like the best nose tackle in football.