Top 30 Keepers for 2011

15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (36, 39): Stewart is ranked as if DeAngelo Williams, the best running back on the market, will not return to Carolina. In nine starts with Williams sidelined the past two seasons, Stewart has averaged 111.3 yards on 19.8 carries (5.6 yards per attempt).

14. Roddy White, Falcons (24, 23): White has finished sixth, seventh, and third the past three years among wide receivers, averaging 96 receptions, 1,308 yards, and 9.3 TDs. He's ranked as the third receiver here.

13. Matt Forte, Bears (17, 3): Forte may not be the top-five back he was projected to be after a strong rookie season, but we now know his second-year struggles were all knee injury and offensive line. Forte is fifth in the league in yards from scrimmage the past three years, trailing only Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

12. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (14): Coach Mike Tomlin once said he'd run Willie Paker until the wheels came off, and he's taking the same approach with Mendenhall. The second-year starter finished seventh in fantasy points, showing his best burst of the season in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. The lone missing ingredient for top-tier fantasy success is an uptick in receptions. With Mewelde Moore expected to leave, that could change in 2011.

11. Darren McFadden, Raiders (NR, 48): McFadden led the NFL with 14 carries of 20-plus yards, ranked fourth in rushing yards per game, was second only to Arian Foster is yards from scrimmage per game, and finished first among all backs in yards per reception. On the flip side, he's still never played more than 13 games in a season.

10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (16, 12): Keeper leaguers have to love a QB-proof wide receiver. Johnson now owns two of the franchise's three seasons with at least 75 receptions, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns -- and he's done it under six different quarterbacks, including the likes of Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, and Drew Stanton.

9. Andre Johnson, Texans (7, 9): If not for a nearly season-long ankle injury, costing him three full games, Johnson would have become the first receiver in NFL history with three consecutive 1,500-yard seasons. He's led the NFL in receiving yards per game in three of the past four seasons. The fourth season was actually his career-high in receiving yards.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (11, 31): Rodgers' fantasy finishes the past three seasons: third, first, and second. Rodgers matched Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in 2010 despite missing one game and his top receiving threat for the majority of the season. The Super Bowl MVP played his best ball of the season after a Week 15 concussion, throwing up a passer rating north of 110 the rest of the way.

7. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: It's no real shocker that McCoy filled Brian Westbrook's wide shoes as an elite fantasy option in PPR leagues. The big surprise was the Michael Vick effect, allowing McCoy to excel as the best back in the NFL facing a "loaded box" in short-yardage and obvious run situations. McCoy finished in the top four in rushing yards, touchdowns and attempts per first down in those situations while also excelling at running out the clock. The good times will roll in 2011 with Vick back under center.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (4): With little help from his front line or passing attack, Rice finished third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage while playing through an early-season knee injury. From a fantasy standpoint, Rice figures to benefit greatly from the inevitable release of Willis McGahee. Keep in mind that Rice averaged 22.5 TDs in his final two seasons at Rutgers. There's no question he can excel as a goal-line back.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (10): The Chiefs are talking up Dexter McCluster as a third-down specialist, and Thomas Jones remains a threat at the goal-line. It just doesn't matter. As one of the uniquely talented backs in the league, Charles is too good to keep off the field. He finished fourth in fantasy points last year, and he's going to touch the ball on a more consistent basis in 2011.

4. Arian Foster, Texans: Let's dispense with the alleged concerns right out of the box. Ben Tate isn't a threat to Foster's job after the breakout star led the league in rushing yards, touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and first downs. The recent knee scope couldn't be more minor, keeping him sidelined just three weeks. Coach Gary Kubiak and zone-blocking O-Line guru Rick Dennison return for at least one more season, leaving all the ingredients in place for a repeat performance.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans (1, 5): The bar is set unreasonably high when 1,600 yards, a dozen TDs, and a fifth-place fantasy finish are widely seen as a disappointing season. CJ2K has averaged a robust 120 yards and 0.8 TDs per game since entering the league. New coordinator Chris Palmer promises a run-heavy attack, targeting a 35:30 per game run-to-pass ratio in 2011. Barring injury, Johnson's floor is 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (2, 1): Consistency and reliability. Peterson has been a top-two Rotoworld keeper and a top-three fantasy performer every year he's been in the league. He's never had a season under double-digit TDs or 100 total yards per game.

1. Michael Vick, Eagles: It's not just that you get a quarterback and a running back in one package. Or that he averaged five more points per week than any other player. Or even that he put the trophy on the mantle for fantasy owners in 2010. It's also that his situation remains virtually unchanged for 2011, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Shady McCoy, and Brent Celek at his disposal. The combination of QB talent and offensive weapons is unparalleled.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

In Part I of the Top-50 keepers, we covered the nature of keeper leagues, the near misses, the fallers, and players 31-50. Let's move on to the top 30 keepers.

Top 30 Keepers
Rank from the previous two seasons (2010, 2009) in parentheses.

30. Michael Turner, Falcons (8, 8): I'd rather sell a year early than hold on a year too long. Turner just turned 29 years old, and his YPC dropped off to 3.6 over the final six games of the season.

29. Reggie Wayne, Colts (12, 23): The decline is on. Wayne's downfield effectiveness and yards per reception dropped for the fifth straight season. With Austin Collie and Dallas Clark banged up and Pierre Garcon underwhelming, Wayne still managed a seventh-place fantasy finish. The arrow is pointing down for 2011.

28. Greg Jennings, Packers (30, 25): Packers coaches game-planned to get the ball in Jennings' hands after a slow start, but there's no escaping the fact that his production spike coincided with Jermichael Finley's season-ending injury. In the five early-season games with Finley, Jennings averaged 2.8 receptions and 36.6 yards. The rest of the way without Finley, Jennings averaged 5.5 receptions and 92.3 yards. Jennings still makes for a fine keeper, but his numbers will decline at least slightly next season.

27. Philip Rivers, Chargers (33, 43): Coming off a career year with a patchwork receiving corps. Rivers should have no problem repeating his fourth-place fantasy finish with Antonio Gates back healthy and Vincent Jackson returning for 16 games.

26. Tony Romo, Cowboys (29, 29): Is Romo an elite QB? He's fifth among active starters in completion percentage (64.1), first in passing TD percentage (5.7), first in yards per attempt (8.00), and third in passer rating (95.5). Regardless of reputation, it's clear that Romo is a premier passer. Throw in arguably the most dynamic pair of receivers in the NFL, an elite tight end, and a fine pass-catching back, and Romo is poised for a career-year in 2011.

25. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (21, 15): Marshall's 2010 numbers were down for two reasons: 1. The Week 11-13 hamstring injury and 2. Chad Henne was brutal in the red zone. I'm not buying GM Jeff Ireland's public backing of Henne the past few weeks. The Dolphins will have a new starter come September.

24. Miles Austin, Cowboys (19): Is there a better offseason trade target in keeper leagues? Austin averaged 6.6 catches and 97.2 yards with Tony Romo under center the first five games of last season. After Romo's shoulder injury, those numbers plummeted to just 3.2 catches for 50.4 yards.

23. DeAngelo Williams, Free Agent (18, 14): Most likely to sign Williams: Miami Dolphins. We've seen the Broncos, Saints, and Colts mentioned as possibilities as well. Denver has too many holes to break the bank on a backfield partner for Knowshon Moreno. Indy and NOLA use a plug 'n' play approach in the backfield, unwilling to make a big free agency splash. Keep an eye out for the Redskins and Bengals as wildcards.

22. Steven Jackson, Rams (6, 4): Jackson saw a sharp decline in effectiveness in 2010, dropping to 3.7 YPC while finishing in the bottom quarter of metrics compiled by Pro Football Focus as well as Football Outsiders. Particularly worrisome is that he averaged just 3.38 yards per on 127 carries from Week 12 on. S-Jax should see an uptick in PPR value with pass-heavy coordinator Josh McDaniels calling plays, but that will be offset if the Rams draft a dangerous change-of-pace.

21. Hakeem Nicks, Giants: Nicks is a true phenom, but owners can't count on 16 games in 2011 after he's battled wrist, leg, ankle, hamstring, knee, and multiple toe injuries in his first two seasons.

20. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (15, 11): Fitz's talent and track record merit a higher ranking, but QB questions persist. Marc Bulger would hardly be a panacea, and this year's rookie crop isn't ready to step in from Day One.

19. Frank Gore, 49ers (5, 6): Exiting his prime at age 28, coming off a fractured hip, and entering the final year of his contract. Plenty of re-draft value, but it's hard to project RB1 production beyond 2011.

18. Peyton Manning, Colts (9, 21): Way too early to worry about a decline phase for the best statistical QB in NFL history. If Austin Collie stays concussion free, Manning could have the best collection of receivers since his magical 2004 season.

17. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (3, 2): If not for the meniscus surgery, Jones-Drew would flirt with the top-five. MJD revealed in January that his left knee was "bone-on-bone" by the end of the season. Torry Holt and Antonio Bryant never captured pre-injury form after bone-on-bone conditions related to meniscus injuries.

16. Drew Brees, Saints (13, 20): Brees' interceptions sky-rocketed while playing through a sprained MCL, but he still finished an impressive third in fantasy points and passing yards and second in touchdowns. Aided by the dome-field advantage, Brees has been a top-five fantasy QB in each of the past five seasons.



15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (36, 39): Stewart is ranked as if DeAngelo Williams, the best running back on the market, will not return to Carolina. In nine starts with Williams sidelined the past two seasons, Stewart has averaged 111.3 yards on 19.8 carries (5.6 yards per attempt).

14. Roddy White, Falcons (24, 23): White has finished sixth, seventh, and third the past three years among wide receivers, averaging 96 receptions, 1,308 yards, and 9.3 TDs. He's ranked as the third receiver here.

13. Matt Forte, Bears (17, 3): Forte may not be the top-five back he was projected to be after a strong rookie season, but we now know his second-year struggles were all knee injury and offensive line. Forte is fifth in the league in yards from scrimmage the past three years, trailing only Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

12. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (14): Coach Mike Tomlin once said he'd run Willie Paker until the wheels came off, and he's taking the same approach with Mendenhall. The second-year starter finished seventh in fantasy points, showing his best burst of the season in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. The lone missing ingredient for top-tier fantasy success is an uptick in receptions. With Mewelde Moore expected to leave, that could change in 2011.

11. Darren McFadden, Raiders (NR, 48): McFadden led the NFL with 14 carries of 20-plus yards, ranked fourth in rushing yards per game, was second only to Arian Foster is yards from scrimmage per game, and finished first among all backs in yards per reception. On the flip side, he's still never played more than 13 games in a season.

10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (16, 12): Keeper leaguers have to love a QB-proof wide receiver. Johnson now owns two of the franchise's three seasons with at least 75 receptions, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns -- and he's done it under six different quarterbacks, including the likes of Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, and Drew Stanton.

9. Andre Johnson, Texans (7, 9): If not for a nearly season-long ankle injury, costing him three full games, Johnson would have become the first receiver in NFL history with three consecutive 1,500-yard seasons. He's led the NFL in receiving yards per game in three of the past four seasons. The fourth season was actually his career-high in receiving yards.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (11, 31): Rodgers' fantasy finishes the past three seasons: third, first, and second. Rodgers matched Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in 2010 despite missing one game and his top receiving threat for the majority of the season. The Super Bowl MVP played his best ball of the season after a Week 15 concussion, throwing up a passer rating north of 110 the rest of the way.

7. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: It's no real shocker that McCoy filled Brian Westbrook's wide shoes as an elite fantasy option in PPR leagues. The big surprise was the Michael Vick effect, allowing McCoy to excel as the best back in the NFL facing a "loaded box" in short-yardage and obvious run situations. McCoy finished in the top four in rushing yards, touchdowns and attempts per first down in those situations while also excelling at running out the clock. The good times will roll in 2011 with Vick back under center.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (4): With little help from his front line or passing attack, Rice finished third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage while playing through an early-season knee injury. From a fantasy standpoint, Rice figures to benefit greatly from the inevitable release of Willis McGahee. Keep in mind that Rice averaged 22.5 TDs in his final two seasons at Rutgers. There's no question he can excel as a goal-line back.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (10): The Chiefs are talking up Dexter McCluster as a third-down specialist, and Thomas Jones remains a threat at the goal-line. It just doesn't matter. As one of the uniquely talented backs in the league, Charles is too good to keep off the field. He finished fourth in fantasy points last year, and he's going to touch the ball on a more consistent basis in 2011.

4. Arian Foster, Texans: Let's dispense with the alleged concerns right out of the box. Ben Tate isn't a threat to Foster's job after the breakout star led the league in rushing yards, touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and first downs. The recent knee scope couldn't be more minor, keeping him sidelined just three weeks. Coach Gary Kubiak and zone-blocking O-Line guru Rick Dennison return for at least one more season, leaving all the ingredients in place for a repeat performance.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans (1, 5): The bar is set unreasonably high when 1,600 yards, a dozen TDs, and a fifth-place fantasy finish are widely seen as a disappointing season. CJ2K has averaged a robust 120 yards and 0.8 TDs per game since entering the league. New coordinator Chris Palmer promises a run-heavy attack, targeting a 35:30 per game run-to-pass ratio in 2011. Barring injury, Johnson's floor is 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (2, 1): Consistency and reliability. Peterson has been a top-two Rotoworld keeper and a top-three fantasy performer every year he's been in the league. He's never had a season under double-digit TDs or 100 total yards per game.

1. Michael Vick, Eagles: It's not just that you get a quarterback and a running back in one package. Or that he averaged five more points per week than any other player. Or even that he put the trophy on the mantle for fantasy owners in 2010. It's also that his situation remains virtually unchanged for 2011, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Shady McCoy, and Brent Celek at his disposal. The combination of QB talent and offensive weapons is unparalleled.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.