11. Texans:
Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.
Quinn's Combine performance has been described as "
just average," but he's still a shoo-in for the top-12 selections. The Texans are currently relying on former backup defensive end
Connor Barwin to be their
lead pass-rushing outside linebacker. Barwin has 4 1/2 career sacks.
12. Vikings:
Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.
Clued-in
Minneapolis Star-Tribune beat writer Judd Zulgad's "
gut feeling" is that the Vikings are high enough on Locker to draft him in round one. Defensive line and safety are big needs for Minnesota, but when
Joe Webb is atop your current depth chart, quarterback trumps them all.
13. Lions:
Tyron Smith, offensive tackle, USC.
Our last mock had the Lions taking a tackle, and we don't see that changing barring a draft-day slide from one of the top-two cornerbacks. Boasting
36 3/8-inch arms and the most impressive feet of all offensive linemen available, Smith has overtaken
Nate Solder and
Anthony Castonzo.
14. Rams:
Aldon Smith, defensive end, Missouri.
G.M. Billy Devaney will be disappointed when
Julio Jones goes off the board in front of him, but quality fallback options are plentiful. A local favorite, Smith showed at the Combine that
his best position is defensive end in a 4-3, and current
Chris Long bookend
James Hall recently turned 34.
15. Dolphins:
Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.
Ingram's
stock wasn't affected by his lackluster 4.62 forty at the Combine because all NFL scouts already know he isn't a burner. The fact that he beat out top running back sprinter
Da'Rel Scott in the ten-yard split indicates that Ingram's short-area burst is elite and worthy of a top-20 selection.
16. Jaguars:
Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.
Ponder is gaining steam as a first-round prospect after big Senior Bowl and Combine performances, and word out of Big Cat Country is that G.M. Gene Smith "
likes him a lot."
David Garrard recently turned 33, is due $25.4 million over the next three seasons, and isn't a true franchise quarterback.
17. Patriots:
J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.
Five-technique defensive ends
don't go early in drafts unless it's the Chiefs reeeaching for
Tyson Jackson. But Watt projects as a borderline double-digit sack guy ala
Justin Smith, with the ability to also be a high-impact run defender. At this point in the draft, Watt should be atop the Pats' board.
18. Chargers:
Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.
Like Watt, Jordan is unlikely to be drafted before the teens unless a 4-3 team deems him capable of playing strong-side end. Throw out Jackson, and in the last five years the highest a true "five technique" has been selected was
Jared Odrick at No. 28. San Diego is
desperate for end help.
19. Giants:
Anthony Castonzo, offensive tackle, Boston College.
We mentioned in
Mock Draft 1.0 Castonzo's connection to Giants assistant line coach Jack Bicknell, as well as New York's aging, thinning offensive line. Those concerns were not eased by G.M. Jerry Reese's
recent comments about
Shawn Andrews' chronic back problems, details of
Rich Seubert's
major knee surgery, and
Shaun O'Hara's forthcoming
Achilles' procedure.
20. Buccaneers:
Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.
After bringing up the
NFC rear in sacks, the Bucs are desperate for pass-rushing production. Kerrigan fits that role as well as anyone in the draft after generating 56 tackles for loss and 32.5 sacks in his final three college seasons while tying the NCAA record for forced fumbles (14).
21. Chiefs:
Derek Sherrod, offensive tackle, Mississippi State.
Kansas City needs a better right tackle than
Barry Richardson if they're going to continue to lead the NFL in rushing. Sherrod comes from a college program that posted a 619:288 run-to-pass ratio last season, and is considered this year's most consistent tackle prospect
in some circles.
Last week's Scouting Combine revealed more insight into NFL teams' thinking about the 2011 draft class. Some players
helped and hurt their stock based on workouts, but the most important things we learned were not necessarily derived from forty times and bench press totals.
Teams are not as high on Auburn defensive tackle
Nick Fairley as the media was led to believe pre-February 24. There is a divide among teams regarding this year's top quarterback, although
Cam Newton seems to
have the slight edge. Iowa DE
Adrian Clayborn and North Carolina DE
Robert Quinn's stock could be heavily influenced by their medicals.
Knowing at least a slight bit more than we did two weeks ago, let's take
another crack at projecting the top 32.
1. Panthers:
Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.
Carolina's new coaching staff
doesn't seem to believe in 2010 second-rounder
Jimmy Clausen, and the front office is "
not sold" that any of this year's defensive linemen are worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Newton has difference-making talent and is capable of rejuvenating the NFL's worst team.
2. Broncos:
Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.
Dareus has bypassed
Nick Fairley on most teams' draft boards as this year's top defensive tackle, and a quick glance at
Denver's depth chart reveals the worst interior line in football. At 319 pounds with incredible quickness and
short-area explosion, Dareus is a no-brainer pick at No. 2.
3. Bills:
Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.
The Bills would likely prefer
Cam Newton, but they won't have a chance at him barring a trade up. While
Blaine Gabbert should also be considered, the NCAA's sack and tackle-for-loss leader will be difficult to resist for a club that ranked
27th in the league in sacks last year. Ala
Darnell Dockett in Arizona, Bowers would play end in the Bills' 3-4 defense and focus on rushing the passer.
4. Bengals:
Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.
Carson Palmer is
serious about retirement, and brotherly backup Jordan wouldn't make most NFL rosters as a third-stringer. Without free agency on the horizon, there's no way the Bengals can afford to pass on an elite quarterback. Gabbert is this year's top-rated passer in the eyes of many.
5. Cardinals:
Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A&M.
"
Two words," uses NFL Network's Mike Mayock to describe Miller. "Defies. Gravity. Bends parallel to the ground. This guy comes off the edge and it's scary how quick he gets to the quarterback." The Cards could use some of that with
Joey Porter and
Clark Haggans both 34 years old.
6. Browns:
A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.
While he didn't generate
quite the buzz fellow receiver
Julio Jones did in Indianapolis, Green remains the clear-cut No. 1 wideout in this year's draft class. The Browns are committed to
Colt McCoy, but have to know he'll never realize his potential
without an improved supporting cast.
7. 49ers:
Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.
Peterson's talent probably deserves to go higher, but there hasn't been a corner drafted in the top five in eight years. The 2010
Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson's addition would allow the Niners to comfortably part with
overpriced Nate Clements.
8. Titans:
Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn
The Titans are targeting a quarterback, but
Blaine Gabbert and
Cam Newton shouldn't get out of the top four. Instead, they can end Fairley's mini-freefall by reuniting him with
college position coach Tracy Rocker. Fairley
didn't have a good Combine, and his measurables (e.g. size, 10-yard split)
aren't top-five caliber.
9. Cowboys:
Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.
Terence Newman is going on 33 and was
abused in coverage last season, so it's hard to imagine the Cowboys paying his $8 million non-guaranteed salary for 2011. The secondary is Dallas' greatest weakness by a good margin, and Amukamara is by far the best defensive back available.
10. Redskins:
Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.
Owning
no third- or fourth-round pick, the Redskins are prime candidates to trade out of the tenth spot with a team hungry for pass rushers. If coach Mike Shanahan is forced to stand pat, he must select an immediate starter at either quarterback, wide receiver, or in the defensive front seven.
11. Texans:
Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.
Quinn's Combine performance has been described as "
just average," but he's still a shoo-in for the top-12 selections. The Texans are currently relying on former backup defensive end
Connor Barwin to be their
lead pass-rushing outside linebacker. Barwin has 4 1/2 career sacks.
12. Vikings:
Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.
Clued-in
Minneapolis Star-Tribune beat writer Judd Zulgad's "
gut feeling" is that the Vikings are high enough on Locker to draft him in round one. Defensive line and safety are big needs for Minnesota, but when
Joe Webb is atop your current depth chart, quarterback trumps them all.
13. Lions:
Tyron Smith, offensive tackle, USC.
Our last mock had the Lions taking a tackle, and we don't see that changing barring a draft-day slide from one of the top-two cornerbacks. Boasting
36 3/8-inch arms and the most impressive feet of all offensive linemen available, Smith has overtaken
Nate Solder and
Anthony Castonzo.
14. Rams:
Aldon Smith, defensive end, Missouri.
G.M. Billy Devaney will be disappointed when
Julio Jones goes off the board in front of him, but quality fallback options are plentiful. A local favorite, Smith showed at the Combine that
his best position is defensive end in a 4-3, and current
Chris Long bookend
James Hall recently turned 34.
15. Dolphins:
Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.
Ingram's
stock wasn't affected by his lackluster 4.62 forty at the Combine because all NFL scouts already know he isn't a burner. The fact that he beat out top running back sprinter
Da'Rel Scott in the ten-yard split indicates that Ingram's short-area burst is elite and worthy of a top-20 selection.
16. Jaguars:
Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.
Ponder is gaining steam as a first-round prospect after big Senior Bowl and Combine performances, and word out of Big Cat Country is that G.M. Gene Smith "
likes him a lot."
David Garrard recently turned 33, is due $25.4 million over the next three seasons, and isn't a true franchise quarterback.
17. Patriots:
J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.
Five-technique defensive ends
don't go early in drafts unless it's the Chiefs reeeaching for
Tyson Jackson. But Watt projects as a borderline double-digit sack guy ala
Justin Smith, with the ability to also be a high-impact run defender. At this point in the draft, Watt should be atop the Pats' board.
18. Chargers:
Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.
Like Watt, Jordan is unlikely to be drafted before the teens unless a 4-3 team deems him capable of playing strong-side end. Throw out Jackson, and in the last five years the highest a true "five technique" has been selected was
Jared Odrick at No. 28. San Diego is
desperate for end help.
19. Giants:
Anthony Castonzo, offensive tackle, Boston College.
We mentioned in
Mock Draft 1.0 Castonzo's connection to Giants assistant line coach Jack Bicknell, as well as New York's aging, thinning offensive line. Those concerns were not eased by G.M. Jerry Reese's
recent comments about
Shawn Andrews' chronic back problems, details of
Rich Seubert's
major knee surgery, and
Shaun O'Hara's forthcoming
Achilles' procedure.
20. Buccaneers:
Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.
After bringing up the
NFC rear in sacks, the Bucs are desperate for pass-rushing production. Kerrigan fits that role as well as anyone in the draft after generating 56 tackles for loss and 32.5 sacks in his final three college seasons while tying the NCAA record for forced fumbles (14).
21. Chiefs:
Derek Sherrod, offensive tackle, Mississippi State.
Kansas City needs a better right tackle than
Barry Richardson if they're going to continue to lead the NFL in rushing. Sherrod comes from a college program that posted a 619:288 run-to-pass ratio last season, and is considered this year's most consistent tackle prospect
in some circles.
22. Colts:
Nate Solder, offensive tackle, Colorado.
Solder
lacks core strength to be an instant impact run blocker, but that's less concerning for a Colts team that has ranked 30th, 31st, and 28th in rushing attempts over the past three years. Indy's pass protection is among the NFL's worst, and they need to replace both starting tackles.
23. Eagles:
Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.
Smith is a top-15 talent with
shutdown-caliber ability, but
character concerns will prevent him from going that soon. He's still a first-round prospect, and cornerback is the Eagles' most glaring offseason need after
Dimitri Patterson and
Ellis Hobbs flopped opposite
Asante Samuel last year.
24. Saints:
Justin Houston, defensive end, Georgia.
Georgia's leader in sacks (10) and tackles for loss (18.5) in 2010, Houston was a consensus first-team All-SEC pick and
Nagurski Award finalist behind
Da'Quan Bowers. The Saints are in pursuit of disruptive front seven players after seeing their big plays on defense evaporate last season.
25. Seahawks:
Colin Kaepernick, quarterback, Nevada.
Kaepernick isn't commonly considered a first-round prospect, but
Tim Tebow,
Josh Freeman, and
Joe Flacco were viewed similarly entering the last three drafts. All were
selected in the top 32. The Seahawks could bring along Kaepernick slowly after they re-sign stopgap
Matt Hasselbeck.
26. Ravens:
Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.
Smith is known to be
on G.M. Ozzie Newsome's radar as the Ravens' personnel maven works to upgrade the
slowest wide receiver corps in the NFL. At 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds
with 4.43 speed, Smith is a true vertical threat and would be an instant fan favorite with local ties.
27. Falcons:
Gabe Carimi, offensive tackle, Wisconsin.
A big-play wideout like
Titus Young should also receive consideration from Atlanta, but Carimi provides more value at No. 27. Three Falcons starting offensive linemen
are free agents, including right tackle
Tyson Clabo. (Guards
Harvey Dahl and
Justin Blalock are the others.)
28. Patriots:
Brooks Reed, linebacker, Arizona.
Drawing comparisons to Defensive Player of the Year runner-up
Clay Matthews, Reed ripped up the Combine with
the top ten-yard split by a pass rusher, even showing more initial burst than
A.J. Green. At 6'3/263, Reed is what the doctor ordered for New England's outside linebacker woes.
29. Bears:
Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida.
The Bears believe 2010 seventh-round pick
J'Marcus Webb can be a
long-term fixture at tackle, but the interior remains a major problem area. After his team allowed the most sacks in the NFL last season, G.M. Jerry Angelo is probably 80 percent -- at least -- to draft a lineman at No. 29.
30. Jets:
Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple.
If the season began today,
Marcus Dixon (three career appearances) and Mike Devito (0.5 sacks) would be the Jets' starting defensive ends. Wilkerson is built perfectly to play five technique with 35 1/4-inch arms at 6'4/315. He also led Temple in sacks, tackles for loss, and hurries last year.
31. Steelers:
Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas.
Williams' best position might ultimately be safety, but he's ticketed for cornerback initially after posting
respectable forty-yard dash times in Indianapolis. Two of the Steelers' top three corners are free agents, and starting free safety
Ryan Clark is entering his age-32 season.
32. Packers:
Cameron Heyward, defensive end, Ohio State.
The
talent-rich Packers will be able to draft the best player available on April 28. Heyward might be in the mid first-round conversation if not for offseason Tommy John surgery, and he also plays a position at which Green Bay is
losing a key cog in free agent defensive end
Cullen Jenkins.
Left out: Illinois DT
Corey Liuget, UCLA LB
Akeem Ayers, Illinois LB
Martez Wilson, Pitt WR
Jonathan Baldwin, Penn State C Stefen Wisniewski, Arkansas QB
Ryan Mallett, Illinois RB
Mikel Leshoure, Iowa DE
Adrian Clayborn, Notre Dame TE
Kyle Rudolph, UCLA FS
Rahim Moore, Baylor NT
Phil Taylor, Miami WR
Leonard Hankerson, Miami CB
Brandon Harris, Villanova G/T
Ben Ijalana, Baylor G/T Danny Watkins, Virginia Tech RB
Ryan Williams, Oregon State DT
Stephen Paea, Boise State WR
Titus Young