Offseason NFL Mailbag

Q: @Bennett911 How about top guys to move now while they have good value before they start to decline in the near future?

A: The most obvious candidate is Steven Jackson, who has several factors working against him. S-Jax has more touches than any back in the NFL since 2005, is exiting his prime at age 28, and is coming off a career-low 3.76 YPC -- including 3.38 from Weeks 12-17. Perhaps just as worrisome, the tea leaves suggest the Rams will draft a second-day back to ease Jackson's workload the next couple of years. He's certainly capable of bouncing back in Josh McDaniels' offense, but I think the smart money screams "sell now." It's rare for big backs with heavy career workloads to post career years beyond age 27.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has three factors working against him: He's a mundane talent, his output hinges on the Patriots playing dominant football week-in and week-out (i.e. last year's second half vs. last year's first half), and New England will add a rookie back to the mix. … The breakout seasons of Chiefs duo Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe came against the softest pass defense schedule we may ever see. Neither player will repeat their 2010 performance, which is especially problematic for Cassel. Even with that 27:7 TD-to-INT ratio, completion percentages of 55.0 and 58.2 in Kansas City the past two seasons are red flags.

Moving from the league's pass-heaviest head coach to one of the most offensively conservative, Brandon Lloyd won't sniff WR1 status again. Throw in the possibility (probability?) of Tim Tebow replacing Kyle Orton, and Lloyd's fantasy outlook is even more bleak.

Other candidates: Kyle Orton, Ryan Torain, Michael Turner, Peyton Hillis, Ahmad Bradshaw, Knowshon Moreno, Steve Smith (NYG), Marcedes Lewis, Chris Cooley, Brandon Pettigrew

Q: @rocktop15 How do trades work in keeper leagues? What's the preferred etiquette? Asking because I'm in one in the 2nd year.

A: I've always believed a good, fair trade should hurt both owners just a little bit to pull the trigger. Not only is there no challenge in pulling the wool over a lesser owner's eyes, it's just downright inartistic.

My usual M.O. for keeper-league trades? Create a spreadsheet for every roster in the league with separate columns for each position. Do your homework, target the player(s) you covet, and see what the owner might need from your roster. Alternatively, target the player(s) you want to shed from your roster and see which owners might have a need at those positions. Send a fair offer that provides a reasonable solution for both teams. If you have five or six players worthy of keeping in a four-keeper league, target an owner with two or three elite players and no depth.

Keep in mind, also, that some weeks just don't lend themselves to your pieces fitting in another owner's puzzle. Wait a week or two and revisit the respective rosters once the landscape changes.

A word on etiquette: If you receive a fair offer from another owner but simply don't want to part with your player(s), offer an explanation. Don't let the other owner bully you into doing a deal even if he's giving up more value in a quantity-for-quality scenario. On the other hand, if you receive an absurd offer, resist the urge to lash out. You don't owe an explanation if the other owner is either clueless on player values or unwilling to begin talks with a fair initial offering.

Q: @Rubideaux1 Thoughts on ADP for Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews. Is Shonne Greene now a keeper league value pick? Go get Dez still?

A: Best's ADP is 3.02 at Pro Football Focus and 3.10 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Mathews' ADP is 3.11 at Pro Football Focus and 4.01 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Again, these ADPs are artificially inflated by the type of drafts that are typically held this time of the year. Both players are coming off disappointing rookie performances, and that's going to weigh heavily on the average drafter come July and August. I love Best as a "buy" in Dynasty and keeper leagues, but he's certainly not a tremendous redraft bargain at this rate. Mathews is even riskier because Mike Tolbert is looming in the event of injury or slump. If I had to choose one in mid-April, it would be Best.

If Shonn Greene was on my roster in a keeper league, I'd package him to a true believer for an upgrade. I don't think he's a special talent, and backs without a role in the passing game often lack week-to-week consistency. The Jets clearly envision a bigger role for Joe McKnight, and LaDainian Tomlinson may not be out of the picture as a goal-line vulture.

Run -- do not walk -- to get Dez if his owner is a Nervous Nelly.

Welcome to Rotoworld's first Twitter mailbag. A recovering Luddite myself, it took awhile to warm up to our newest social media phenomenon. While I can sympathize with the sentiment that "nobody cares" about the mindless trivia of daily living, what Twitter does accomplish -- quite brilliantly -- is to merge clusters of people interested in similar topics, such as fantasy football.

It's transformed the nature of sports journalism, not just in breaking news instantaneously but also in tapping into a virtual army of participants sharing the same interests. For fantasy football leaguers, it's a godsend. Ask a beat writer, former scout, NFL insider, or fantasy "expert" for advice, and there's a good chance you will hear back within hours or even minutes. Make your voice heard in the latest NFL Draft speculation, track multiple fantasy sites, and even keep tabs on NFL players. You can't find a better way to gather information or pass along opinion than Twitter.

For those interested in starting a Twitter account, Razzball's Chet Gresham (@Chetrazzball) has a handy "Twitter 101 For Fantasy Football" guide to nudge the hesitant fantasy owner out of the nest. After you have "followed" the Rotoworld football team -- @ChrisWesseling, @evansilva, @greggrosenthal, @adamlevitan, @RotoPat, and @LJ_Rader -- you can peruse my lists. I've compiled 168 of the top NFL beat writers, 65 national NFL insiders, NFL team websites, and a smorgasbord of fantasy football, baseball, and general sports writers.

On to the mailbag.

I'm going to bundle these first four questions into one answer because multiple people asked about Jordy Nelson, James Starks, and Jerome Simpson.

Q: @cleanwillyb Most legit late season star: Jordy Nelson, Jerome Simpson, or James Starks?

Q: @RyFo18 Jordy Nelson at 7.05: Too high, low, or just right? Using Pro Football Focus ADP data.

Q: @jakeallen47 Dynasty: Jerome Simpson -- the next Aromashodu or something more?

Q: @Rubideaux1 Is James Starks a keeper league option? Which Packers back do you draft first?

A: Thanks to NFL.com's Game Rewind, I went back to watch the late-season tape for all three of these players. The short answer is that all three are legit as NFL starters. From a fantasy perspective, Simpson would be my choice as the most likely to carry over reliable weekly starter status in 2011.

Pro Football Focus' ADP data has Nelson going off the boards at 7.05 while Fantasy Football Calculator sets his ADP at 10.05. Most early offseason mocks are done by serious-minded fantasy owners, many of whom work in the fantasy business, which explains the high ADP for a breakout candidate. In other words, you won't see Nelson going off the board in the seventh round of your college buddies' league this summer. Back in early February, I ranked Nelson as a top-30 Dynasty receiver and my favorite offseason "buy." I'm sky-high on Donald Driver's natural successor, but mid-seventh round (WR33) is too high in redraft leagues with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley as Aaron Rodgers' first reads, Donald Driver still in the picture, and James Jones possibly returning. FF Calculatror's mid-tenth round (WR44) ADP is a better target for Nelson.

The Simpson-Aromashodu comparison arises because it was at this time last year that Aromashodu was oft mentioned as a chic breakout candidate at wide receiver. Rotoworld was hyping Johnny Knox over Aromashodu because we didn't expect the latter to start for the Bears. Simpson, more talented with a much better pedigree than Aromashodu, is locked in as a Bengals starter in 2011 -- and quite possibly the No. 1 receiver. The Cincinnati Enquirer's Joe Reedy is betting that Simpson will start opposite A.J. Green or Julio Jones with Jordan Shipley in the slot. Quarterback questions remain, but Simpson should be heavily targeted beginning in Week 1.

After watching all of James Starks' playoff runs, I tweeted earlier in the week that the "poor man's Adrian Peterson" talk coming out of Green Bay is loco. Starks runs hard, is tough to tackle, and has three-down ability, but the explosiveness is missing. Though he was a major upgrade on Brandon Jackson, I'm not confident he can outplay Ryan Grant. Long-term, his injury history and upright running style are concerns. Short-term, I would give the advantage to the veteran Grant as the lead back in a two-back system. Bottom line: At this point, I wouldn't consider Starks a viable keeper unless you play in a league that typically keeps more than two backs per owner.



Q: @Bennett911 How about top guys to move now while they have good value before they start to decline in the near future?

A: The most obvious candidate is Steven Jackson, who has several factors working against him. S-Jax has more touches than any back in the NFL since 2005, is exiting his prime at age 28, and is coming off a career-low 3.76 YPC -- including 3.38 from Weeks 12-17. Perhaps just as worrisome, the tea leaves suggest the Rams will draft a second-day back to ease Jackson's workload the next couple of years. He's certainly capable of bouncing back in Josh McDaniels' offense, but I think the smart money screams "sell now." It's rare for big backs with heavy career workloads to post career years beyond age 27.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has three factors working against him: He's a mundane talent, his output hinges on the Patriots playing dominant football week-in and week-out (i.e. last year's second half vs. last year's first half), and New England will add a rookie back to the mix. … The breakout seasons of Chiefs duo Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe came against the softest pass defense schedule we may ever see. Neither player will repeat their 2010 performance, which is especially problematic for Cassel. Even with that 27:7 TD-to-INT ratio, completion percentages of 55.0 and 58.2 in Kansas City the past two seasons are red flags.

Moving from the league's pass-heaviest head coach to one of the most offensively conservative, Brandon Lloyd won't sniff WR1 status again. Throw in the possibility (probability?) of Tim Tebow replacing Kyle Orton, and Lloyd's fantasy outlook is even more bleak.

Other candidates: Kyle Orton, Ryan Torain, Michael Turner, Peyton Hillis, Ahmad Bradshaw, Knowshon Moreno, Steve Smith (NYG), Marcedes Lewis, Chris Cooley, Brandon Pettigrew

Q: @rocktop15 How do trades work in keeper leagues? What's the preferred etiquette? Asking because I'm in one in the 2nd year.

A: I've always believed a good, fair trade should hurt both owners just a little bit to pull the trigger. Not only is there no challenge in pulling the wool over a lesser owner's eyes, it's just downright inartistic.

My usual M.O. for keeper-league trades? Create a spreadsheet for every roster in the league with separate columns for each position. Do your homework, target the player(s) you covet, and see what the owner might need from your roster. Alternatively, target the player(s) you want to shed from your roster and see which owners might have a need at those positions. Send a fair offer that provides a reasonable solution for both teams. If you have five or six players worthy of keeping in a four-keeper league, target an owner with two or three elite players and no depth.

Keep in mind, also, that some weeks just don't lend themselves to your pieces fitting in another owner's puzzle. Wait a week or two and revisit the respective rosters once the landscape changes.

A word on etiquette: If you receive a fair offer from another owner but simply don't want to part with your player(s), offer an explanation. Don't let the other owner bully you into doing a deal even if he's giving up more value in a quantity-for-quality scenario. On the other hand, if you receive an absurd offer, resist the urge to lash out. You don't owe an explanation if the other owner is either clueless on player values or unwilling to begin talks with a fair initial offering.

Q: @Rubideaux1 Thoughts on ADP for Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews. Is Shonne Greene now a keeper league value pick? Go get Dez still?

A: Best's ADP is 3.02 at Pro Football Focus and 3.10 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Mathews' ADP is 3.11 at Pro Football Focus and 4.01 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Again, these ADPs are artificially inflated by the type of drafts that are typically held this time of the year. Both players are coming off disappointing rookie performances, and that's going to weigh heavily on the average drafter come July and August. I love Best as a "buy" in Dynasty and keeper leagues, but he's certainly not a tremendous redraft bargain at this rate. Mathews is even riskier because Mike Tolbert is looming in the event of injury or slump. If I had to choose one in mid-April, it would be Best.

If Shonn Greene was on my roster in a keeper league, I'd package him to a true believer for an upgrade. I don't think he's a special talent, and backs without a role in the passing game often lack week-to-week consistency. The Jets clearly envision a bigger role for Joe McKnight, and LaDainian Tomlinson may not be out of the picture as a goal-line vulture.

Run -- do not walk -- to get Dez if his owner is a Nervous Nelly.



Q: @Joe_Wirth Peyton Manning: At what point should an owner look to trade him away to maximize value? Am I already too late?

Q: @MJP0ke Love the column idea! With Brady and Manning getting long in the tooth, what young guns are next? Can anyone ever compare?

A: Resist the urge, especially if you have a contending roster. Make it your goal to develop Manning's successor instead. With top-six QB finishes for twelve straight seasons, Manning is the most consistently valuable player in the history of fantasy football. The Colts will upgrade the O-Line in the draft, and Manning could have a receiving corps on par with his record-setting 2004 season if Austin Collie stays healthy. I would bet the best statistical QB in NFL history has 4-to-5 more top-six finishes in his holster, and I'm not a fan of looking beyond three years in Dynasty league trades.

Yes, playing the stock market is a must for consistent winning in Dynasty and keeper leagues. You have to successfully buy low and sell high. Remember the first law of Dynasty, though: Winning. Every year. Trading a weekly advantage at QB isn't going to get you closer to putting another trophy on the mantle.

Fantasy-wise, there's not going to be a player that compares to Manning's career arc. I like Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Josh Freeman as the most likely to join the top tier. Bradford gets a major boost from Josh McDaniels' offense but needs a talent infusion at receiver. Ryan and Flacco also need help from their teams' front offices to make the leap. Freeman has to duplicate last season's success against a more difficult schedule. If Matthew Stafford can stay in one piece, he has a realistic shot at 30 TDs in a breakout season. If you want a darkhorse candidate, remember that Tim Tebow led the league in fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season -- his first three NFL starts.

Q: @MJP0ke I live for this! Other Q's: How good can AJ Green be? What rookie RB do you like the most in draft? CJ2K in trouble with no QB?

Q: @ericktumang Who's the best rookie RB to grab in a dynasty league, talent-wise?

A: Like Jon Gruden, I believe Green is the "clear-cut" top receiver in this year's draft. He's not a once in a blue moon talent like Calvin Johnson (or even Dez Bryant), though. A common mistake Dynasty leaguers make is believing that there must be at least one beast at wide receiver and running back in every draft. Talents like Adrian Peterson and Megatron don't come along every year. It's what makes them special. And anointing pretenders as the next great thing only leads to more owners sleeping when the real deal comes along. To answer your question, I would rank Green in the top-15 area as a Dynasty league wide receiver right now. I had Dez just inside the top-10 coming into the league and Calvin in the top-5.

When drafting rookie running backs, consider the lay of the land in modern-day backfields. Now more than ever, mid-to-late round backs are keeping pace with the their first-round brethren. Where the good drafters peel away from poor drafters is analyzing team fit and reports out of OTAs/training camp. With the caveat that choosing a top back before the draft is an exercise in futility (barring an Adrian Peterson-level talent), I'm still leaning toward Mark Ingram. For a back who dominated the nation's best conference, Ingram has been over-scrutinized -- in the usual smokescreen fashion -- leading up to the draft.

CJ2K doesn't have a QB in place, but he'll have a veteran (Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger?) and an early-round rookie in Nashville by the time training camp rolls around. With coach Mike Munchak promising more creative play-calling and coordinator Chris Palmer hanging his hat on the running game, Johnson will bounce back in 2011. Book it.

Q: @MJP0ke My own team Q for you: I have CJ2K and Jonathan Stewart kept. Should I keep Blount and/or Bradshaw? OR I could also trade one or both and my rookie pick for the 1st rookie pick and grab Green to compliment Megatron and Dez. Keepers: not due til week before our draft at the end of August. Circle back then?

A: Yes, circle back in August. The values of Blount and Bradshaw are heavily dependent on the draft and free agency respectively. At the same time, if you can package Blount and your rookie pick for the 1.01 to grab Green, I'd pull the trigger. It's worth the risk if it leaves you with Johnson, Stewart, and Bradshaw at running back.

Q: @jrbaillargeon What 3 would you pick in keeper redraft? Vick, Hillis, Blount all count as round 13, V-Jax 7th round, M. Wallace 5th round. Keepers are due a week prior to draft and players move up 2 rounds per year. Other players of value are Starks and McKnight.I can trade for picks.

A: Vick is a no-brainer. V-Jax and Wallace has a sizable talent edge on Hillis and Blount, but your league's system gives the edge to the backs in this case. If I had to make the call right now, I'd keep Hillis and Blount in the 13th. The opportunity to keep them again next year in the 11th round is too much to pass up.

Q: @DaGreatBuddha Auction keeper, can keep 2: Hillis 1%, Blount 1%, Britt 1%, D-Jax 15%, Megatron 23%, D.Bryant 2%. Keepers are due in September, but obsessing is the only football I have right now.

A: See what the lockout has wrought? Again, so much can change as the result of the draft, free agency, and even a potential suspension for Britt. I think Dez is a no-brainer in a keeper league at two percent. The second pick is close enough for coin-flip territory between Hillis, Blount, and Britt, with the deciding factors being scoring system and league keeper trends / position scarcity. Ask me again in August.

Q: @TheSpecialMan Keeper league, need to pick two to keep (pick I must give up included) Ahmad Bradshaw (3rd), Hakeem Nicks (4th), V-Jax (8th), Miles Austin (15th)

A: Miles Austin is the no-brainer here. Nicks is more valuable in Dynasty than V-Jax, but he's far from certain to outscore him in 2011. I'd go with Jackson considering the difference in draft picks surrendered in a keeper league.

Q: @TheJewru Would you consider moving MJD for Nicks in a PPR league, with 3 RB 3 WR?

A: In a PPR format? Yes. Jones-Drew is progressing nicely in his rehab from meniscus surgery, but any mention of a "bone-on-bone" condition still gives me the willies. The Jaguars found an excellent backup in Rashad Jennings last year, and I expect his role to steadily grow at the expense of Jones-Drew's consistency the next couple of seasons. Nicks has 100-catch, double-digit TD potential on an annual basis for the next five years.



Q: @dooger2 Would love to read in-depth discussion of where Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt rank after recent troubles. Where they rank vs. a guy like Mike Wallace who has less upside but is more of a sure thing.

A: Great question. I subscribe to the Ozzie Newsome philosophy on character evaluation: "I think gut feeling has a lot to do with it." You can't always predict your second-round pick falling down a flight of stairs or your star running back walking away from millions to "find himself" in a haze of marijuana smoke and holistic healing while shleping around Australia in a $7-a-day tent.

I've attempted to clarify my stance on knuckleheads in the past. Of late, any player running afoul of the law -- and the subsequent long arm of Roger Godell's personal conduct policy -- is put the through the knucklehead ringer. Unfortunately, it's not that simplistic.

Plenty of players run into early-career legal woes (i.e. Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Ray Lewis) and go on to Hall of Fame caliber careers. Some stay out of trouble off the field only to make an arse out of themselves on the field (i.e. Terrell Owens, Jeff George, Ryan Leaf). Still others combine the worst of both traits. Before shooting himself in the leg at a nightclub, Plaxico Burress pouted, disrespected coaches, incurred a series of team and league fines, and showed poor on-field awareness. Brandon Marshall has been arrested multiple times in addition to the disturbing trends of shouting at his coaches and quarterbacks, showing up to camp out of shape, ripping fans, and making a one-man spectacle of himself in practices. JaMarcus Russell ballooned to 300 pounds, never worked to improve his awful footwork or scattershot accuracy, and got busted for a nasty "purple drank" habit.

The trick is to separate the first two groups from the third group. It's more guessing game than science, especially when the subjects at hand have yet to reach their 23rd birthday -- as is the case with Bryant and Britt.

To hear his father tell it, Britt has been the victim of simple mathematics in the NFL. To quote Rocky, "You hang out with nice people, you get nice friends, ya understand? You hang out with smart people, you get smart friends. You hang out with yo-yo's, you get yo-yo friends. You see, simple mathematics." Britt has combined yo-yo friends with the poor decision-making that goes with immaturity. Before last week's car chase with police, he had landed in hot water for participating in a bar fight, for helping childhood friend and rapper Albert "Albee Al" Robinson with bail money, for a traffic violations, and for showing up to offseason practices out of shape. Separately, each of the incidents is relatively minor. Taken together, they paint a picture of a young player desperately in need of a wake-up call.

As it turns out, Britt's car-chase case could result in nothing more than a tongue-lashing. The prosecutor acknowledged that jail time is unlikely because Britt had no prior criminal record. Profootballtalk's Mike Florio, a former practicing attorney, believes commissioner Roger Goodell's stated intention to enforce the personal conduct policy for behavior during the lockout is a "flimsy proposition." What fantasy owners are left with is a top-10 talent at wide receiver who may not miss a single game . As young and talented as Britt is, the upside justifies the risk in my opinion.

Bryant's rough upbringing -- raised by a single, often absentee mother who spent 18 months in prison -- doesn't excuse his recent behavior. It does give us a window into his "lack of life skills" as a young kid who "just doesn't know any better," though. Bryant's recent mistakes boil down to back-talking an overzealous security guard, falling out of favor with Deion Sanders, and failing to make payments for expensive jewelry accepted before he entered the NFL. The Dallas-area mall has apologized for the flap, and Bryant has already begun making payments for the jewelry.

When those around the Cowboys organization talk about Bryant, they use phrases like: down to earth, loves the Cowboys, hard worker, has a good heart, and intentions are pure. What we have here is a clueless kid who loves football, yet is ignorant of basic adult responsibilities. What he's not is a criminal or a bad seed. As is the case with Britt, Bryant absolutely needed a wake-up call -- and the Cowboys knew it. Head coach Jason Garrett and new receivers coach Jimmy Robinson will be charged with instilling discipline once the lockout is over. There will be minor mistakes along the way, but this is a player with the freakish talent to emerge as the best receiver in the NFL. He's already done things on the field that have caused Cowboys officials to say, "I've never seen that before." His vice-grip hands, enormous catch radius, explosive acceleration, and Michael Irvin-like physicality are the elements of an off-the-charts All-Pro. Bryant has to be valued as a top-10 Dynasty/keeper receiver even with the off-field controversy.

Where do Britt and Bryant rank vs. a safer young talent such as Mike Wallace? I think Wallace has every bit the upside that Britt has. Both are elite top-10 talents in my eyes. Back in February, I ranked Wallace No. 8 among Dynasty receivers and Britt one tier lower at No. 11 due to the Titans' uncertain QB situation and his own character concerns. Wallace's advantage has increased slightly with Britt's latest incident. As impressive as both players are, Bryant is on another plane with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson. He's certainly not as safe as those three, but he's every bit as talented. He also has a much longer shelf-life in Dynasty leagues. I would target Bryant in every league this offseason, and I wouldn't think twice about it. Difference-making talent is worth the risk.