Dynasty Rookie Ranks
Friday, May 06, 2011
Gregg Rosenthal and Evan Silva covered the immediate draft fallout,
handing out grades for each team at
NBC's Draft Headquarters. I'm not sure there's anybody in the fantasy football business who can speak with authority on
all of the late-round freaks and frauds like Silva can.
With rookie drafts coming up this weekend, it's time to turn our attention to Dynasty and keeper leagues. My Top-50 list for standard-scoring leagues with 25-man rosters is as follows:
Top 50 OverallTier One1.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
2.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
3.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
Tier Two4.
Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals
5.
Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
6.
Greg Little, WR, Browns
7.
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Tier Three8.
Delone Carter, RB, Colts
9.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
10.
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
11.
Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
12.
Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
13.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
14.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
15.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
16.
Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers
17.
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs
Tier Four18.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans
19.
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars
20.
Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings
21.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
22.
Alex Green, RB, Packers
23.
Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
24.
Greg Salas, WR, Rams
25.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
26.
Titus Young, WR, Lions
27.
Bilal Powell, RB, Jets
28.
Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins
29.
Johnny White, RB, Bills
Tier Five30.
Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams
31.
Virgil Green, TE, Broncos
32.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
33.
Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders
34.
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
35.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
36.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
37.
Tandon Doss, WR, Ravens
38.
Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots
39.
Dion Lewis, RB, Eagles
40.
D.J. Williams, TE, Packers
41.
Luke Stocker, TE, Buccaneers
42.
Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals
43.
Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
44.
Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos
45.
Allen Bradford, RB, Buccaneers
46.
Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants
47.
Dwayne Harris, WR, Cowboys
48.
Austin Pettis, WR, Rams
49.
Jordan Todman, RB, Chargers
50.
DaRel Scott, RB, Giants
In reviewing several mock drafts across the internet, the following trends have emerged:
Ingram, Green, and Jones are the top three picks. Green is No. 1 more often than not, though scoring system plays heavily into the decision at the top.
The next group features an eclectic mix of running backs and receivers. Ryan Williams is fourth more often than not, but some prefer Daniel Thomas instead. Little and Leshoure tend to follow those two, then all hell breaks loose based on personal preference. I've seen Helu, Vereen, Cobb, Baldwin, Hankerson, and even Newton in the top-six.
The QBs are a crapshoot -- and everyone knows it. Respected national analysts such as Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Michael Lombardi, Gil Brandt, Trent Dilfer, Ron Jaworski, ex-scout Dave Razzano, and former Bears QB Jim Miller all have a favorite, and there's no consensus on the one golden child.
As I stated last year, non-special running backs and receivers go way too high. Chalk it up to a relatively new cottage industry of internet prospect mavens, touting mediocre college talents as future NFL stars. As many as 20-25 skill-position players get hyped as potential first-round picks every year. The math just doesn't work.
On to the rankings by position.
Gregg Rosenthal and Evan Silva covered the immediate draft fallout,
handing out grades for each team at
NBC's Draft Headquarters. I'm not sure there's anybody in the fantasy football business who can speak with authority on
all of the late-round freaks and frauds like Silva can.
With rookie drafts coming up this weekend, it's time to turn our attention to Dynasty and keeper leagues. My Top-50 list for standard-scoring leagues with 25-man rosters is as follows:
Top 50 OverallTier One1.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
2.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
3.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
Tier Two4.
Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals
5.
Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
6.
Greg Little, WR, Browns
7.
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Tier Three8.
Delone Carter, RB, Colts
9.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
10.
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
11.
Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
12.
Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
13.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
14.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
15.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
16.
Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers
17.
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs
Tier Four18.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans
19.
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars
20.
Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings
21.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
22.
Alex Green, RB, Packers
23.
Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
24.
Greg Salas, WR, Rams
25.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
26.
Titus Young, WR, Lions
27.
Bilal Powell, RB, Jets
28.
Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins
29.
Johnny White, RB, Bills
Tier Five30.
Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams
31.
Virgil Green, TE, Broncos
32.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
33.
Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders
34.
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
35.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
36.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
37.
Tandon Doss, WR, Ravens
38.
Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots
39.
Dion Lewis, RB, Eagles
40.
D.J. Williams, TE, Packers
41.
Luke Stocker, TE, Buccaneers
42.
Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals
43.
Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
44.
Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos
45.
Allen Bradford, RB, Buccaneers
46.
Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants
47.
Dwayne Harris, WR, Cowboys
48.
Austin Pettis, WR, Rams
49.
Jordan Todman, RB, Chargers
50.
DaRel Scott, RB, Giants
In reviewing several mock drafts across the internet, the following trends have emerged:
Ingram, Green, and Jones are the top three picks. Green is No. 1 more often than not, though scoring system plays heavily into the decision at the top.
The next group features an eclectic mix of running backs and receivers. Ryan Williams is fourth more often than not, but some prefer Daniel Thomas instead. Little and Leshoure tend to follow those two, then all hell breaks loose based on personal preference. I've seen Helu, Vereen, Cobb, Baldwin, Hankerson, and even Newton in the top-six.
The QBs are a crapshoot -- and everyone knows it. Respected national analysts such as Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Michael Lombardi, Gil Brandt, Trent Dilfer, Ron Jaworski, ex-scout Dave Razzano, and former Bears QB Jim Miller all have a favorite, and there's no consensus on the one golden child.
As I stated last year, non-special running backs and receivers go way too high. Chalk it up to a relatively new cottage industry of internet prospect mavens, touting mediocre college talents as future NFL stars. As many as 20-25 skill-position players get hyped as potential first-round picks every year. The math just doesn't work.
On to the rankings by position.
Quarterback
1. Cam Newton, Panthers
2. Jake Locker, Titans
3. Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
4. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
5. Christian Ponder, Vikings
6. Andy Dalton, Bengals
7. Ryan Mallett, Patriots
8. Ricky Stanzi, Chiefs
9. T.J. Yates, Texans
10. Tyrod Taylor, Ravens
11. Greg McElroy, Jets
12. Adam Froman, UFA
13. Nate Enderle, Bears
14. Pat Devlin, UFA
15. Jerrod Johnson, UFA
16. Josh Portis, UFA
It's hard to fall in love with any one QB this year. Even the early first-rounders have warts. Analyst opinion is all over the map on the seven QBs drafted in the first three rounds. I find Locker to be the most intriguing prospect in the draft, so let's take the No. 8 overall pick as a prime example.
With a strong running game, capable pass-blocking line, a go-to wide receiver, and a breakout candidate at tight end, Locker is set up for success as one of the most accurate outside-the-pocket passers NFL Network's Mike Mayock has ever seen. He's a first-class athlete with ideal mobility, a rifle arm, and the requisite "tough-ass" competitive streak. Locker had already made tangible progress with his inside-the-pocket passing skills leading up to the draft, and Titans coordinator Chris Palmer has a track record of improving his quarterbacks' accuracy.
Now we're cooking with fire, right? Not so fast. Fox Sports' Adam Caplan labeled Locker "realistically" a second-round talent in April after knocking him as a third-rounder in late January. NFL Network's Charley Casserly knew of no team in late March that had a first-round grade on Locker. Colleague Michael Lombardi went a step further, insisting some teams had Locker graded as a fourth-rounder because his lack of accuracy is a "fatal flaw." Colts president Bill Polian doubts that accuracy can even be taught at the NFL level. How divided are scouts on Locker's outlook? Some teams had considered moving Locker to safety.
For all of that criticism, former Bears QB and current Sirius NFL radio analyst Jim Miller compares Locker to Steve Young and Mark Brunell, suggesting Gabbert's accuracy issues are worse. "Rogue" ex-scout Dave Razzano has been pounding the table for Locker all off-season, going so far as to lambaste critics as "stupid." Razzano insists Locker threw a "great ball" in a low-percentage offense with no help from the offensive line or wide receivers. "If you look at their college stats, Favre and Locker are practically identical," said Razzano. "Tell me this guy doesn't move like Favre, scramble like Favre, throw like Favre. Pretend he has the number four on his jersey. His release is a lot like Favre, too."
How do you rank a player compared at various points to Favre, Steve Young, Mark Brunell, and Kyle Boller?
The scouting reports are that wildly divergent for every single QB prospect. Blaine Gabbert senses pressure that isn't there, struggles on third downs, and has accuracy issues down the field. Colin Kaepernick is a mechanical nightmare coming from a pistol-spread offense. Christian Ponder has a Chad Pennington ceiling. Andy Dalton is a talent-challenged reach who can't spin the ball as hard as needs to at the NFL level. Ryan Mallett is a golden-armed statue with a drug and alcohol problem.
. . .
Newton is the quintessential boom or bust pick. He was a system-dependent, scandal-ridden, mechanical mess as a one-year wonder in college. Ex-scout Russ Lande points out, "No college QB who played in the 'Run Option' offense has developed into a good starting NFL QB. See Alex Smith and Vince Young." As a more athletic Josh Freeman, though, the boom potential is significant enough that he could end up a fantasy difference-maker in a best-case scenario. He's No. 1 on this list purely because his ceiling is highest even if his floor is Akili Smith.
Running Back
1. Mark Ingram, Saints
2. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
3. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
4. Shane Vereen, Patriots
5. Delone Carter, Colts
6. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
7. Roy Helu, Redkins
8. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
9. Alex Green, Packers
10. Kendall Hunter, 49ers
11. Johnny White, Bills
12. Bilal Powell, Jets
13. Taiwan Jones, Raiders
14. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
15. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
16. Dion Lewis, Eagles
17. Allen Bradford, Buccaneers
18. Jordan Todman, Chargers
19. DaRel Scott, Giants
20. Evan Royster, Redskins
21. Jamie Harper, Titans
22. Anthony Allen, Ravens
23. Chad Spann. UFA
24. Derrick Locke, UFA
25. Baron Batch, Steelers
26. Jay Finley, Benglas
27. Mario Fannin, UFA
28. Noel Devine, UFA
29. Graig Cooper, UFA
30. John Clay, UFA
My initial reaction to Ingram in New Orleans was less than enthusiastic, picturing a backfield still bogged down in the fantasy quagmire. After delving deeper, however, I would confidently take him over the two playmaking receivers at No. 1 overall. Reggie "It's Been Fun New Orleans" Bush is irrelevant to Ingram's future since they don't play the same position in Sean Payton's offense. Pierre Thomas just signed a four-year deal for backup wages. Chris Ivory was sidelined with injuries to his knee, head, shoulder, and hamstring before ending his rookie season with a Lisfranc fracture. The Saints didn't fork over a second-rounder and next year's first-round pick to play mix-and-match football with Ingram. The clear-cut top back in the draft is expected to take over feature-back duties from Day One.
If Payton's pass-heavy offense is viewed as the No. 1 obstacle to Ingram's fantasy success, it shouldn't be. Payton has shown a willingness to run a balanced game-plan whenever he's had an effective interior rushing attack. Back in 2006, Deuce McAllister racked up 244 carries while the Saints finished 12th in rushing attempts. Three years later, Payton's backfield was sixth in the NFL in attempts behind the 1-2 punch of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. If his backs are healthy and effective on the ground, Payton has no qualms about giving them the rock.
Thomas slots in as the feature back in Miami. Just beware the Dolphins aren't finished remodeling the backfield. … Williams is the second-most talented back in the draft. He's no lock to beat out a healthy Beanie Wells a rookie, though. … Vereen is immediately the best all-around back in New England. … With Joseph Addai's Indy future in question and Donald Brown failing to establish himself as the future, Carter is walking into a primo fantasy situation. … I can't draft Leshoure as a top back when he's set to function as the change-of-pace behind a more talented player for the foreseeable future. … Helu landed in a best-case scenario with the Redskins' one-cut scheme as an ideal fit. Directly behind injury-plagued, speed-challenged Ryan Torain is never a bad spot to start a career. … Murray is going to have to bulk up and maintain playmaking ability at the same time. That's easier said than done. Just ask Felix Jones (who is a better back, by the way).
A word about smallish, mid-round change-of-pace backs like Hunter and Rodgers: These rankings are for standard-scoring leagues with 25--30 deep rosters. If you play in monster-sized PPR leagues employing a flex spot, then Hunter and Rodgers should be moved up the list. As a general rule, I would never draft to fill a flex spot. I'm aiming higher.
Wide Receiver
1. Julio Jones, Falcons
2. A.J. Green, Bengals
3. Greg Little, Browns
4. Randall Cobb, Packers
5. Torrey Smith, Ravens
6. Leonard Hankerson, Redskins
7. Vincent Brown, Chargers
8. Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
9. Greg Salas, Rams
10. Titus Young, Lions
11. Edmond Gates, Dolphins
12. Tandon Doss, Ravens
13. Denarius Moore, Raiders
14. Jerrel Jernigan, Giants
15. Dwayne Harris, Cowboys
16. Austin Pettis, Rams
17. Kealoha Pilares, Panthers
18. Aldrick Robinson, Redskins
19. Cecil Shorts, Jaguars
20. Niles Paul, Redskins
21. Jeremy Kerley, Jets
22. Kris Durham, Seahawks
23. Terrence Toliver, UFA
24. DeAndre Brown, UFA
25. Ricardo Lockette, UFA
26. Vidal Hazelton, UFA
27. Stephen Burton, Vikings
28. DeMarco Sampson, Cardinals
29. Ronald Johnson, 49ers
30. Ryan Whalen, Bengals
Full disclosure: A.J. Green is a better prospect than Julio Jones. I have the two head-and-shoulders above the rest of the crowd and near coin-flip territory for Dynasty drafts. When push comes to shove, I'll take the one catching passes from Matt Ryan on a team run by the two-time NFL Executive of the Year over the one catching passes from Andy Dalton on a team run by the worst owner in sports -- the one who created the Loyalty Clause to keep "Bengalized" victims such as Carl Pickens, Corey Dillon, Takeo Spikes, Chad Ochocinco, and now Carson Palmer in stripes. As the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL over the past 20 years, the Bengals can hit tailspin mode in any given year.
GM Thomas Dimitroff is confident that Jones has zero bust factor. Roddy White is entering his age-30 season. Within 2-3 years, I'd bet on Jones outproducing White as Ryan's favorite target. I can't fault Dynasty owners for sticking with Green's talent edge, but I can't recommend him over Jones if I'd be reluctant to touch the situation in Cincinnati for the next few years.
Baldwin was overdrafted by the Chiefs. More problematic, he's behind Dwayne Bowe in the Chiefs' run-first offense with an often scattershot QB. … Cobb is a poor man's Percy Harvin. … Hankerson has a shot to enter the season as the Redskins' No. 1 receiver pending the free agent process. … Brown was drafted to be a starter in San Diego, though that may take a year or two with free agents Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd likely returning. … Salas has a better chance than Pettis of emerging as the Rams' top possession receiver. … Gates is considered a destitute man's Mike Wallace. … Jernigan is overrated as both a prospect and a fantasy factor.
Tight End
1. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
2. Lance Kendricks, Rams
3. Virgil Green, Broncos
4. Jordan Cameron, Browns
5. D.J. Williams, Packers
6. Luke Stocker, Buccaneers
7. Rob Housler, Cardinals
8. Julius Thomas, Broncos
9. Charles Clay, Dolphins
10. Daniel Hardy, Buccaneers
Rudolph is the consensus top all-around talent at the position, but he won't be an instant impact fantasy factor alongside Visanthe Shiancoe. … Always the willing acolyte to his mentor, Josh McDaniels drafted Kendricks with visions of Aaron Hernandez dancing in his head. … Green was the best receiving tight end in the draft and should start stretching defenses vertically as a rookie. … This year's Jimmy Graham, Cameron has a Todd Heap ceiling in Cleveland. … Williams will need a Jermichael Finley injury to make an impact. … Stocker won't threaten Kellen Winslow for at least a couple of years. … Housler went to an offense that hasn't seen a tight end go past 25 catches or 250 yards in a season under Ken Whisenhunt. … Clay is a speedy field-stretching H-back to complement Anthony Fasano.
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Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with
Rotoworld and his third year contributing to
NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter
@ChrisWesseling.
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