"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." -- Bob Dylan
With apologies to ol' Mr. Zimmerman, we could use a weatherman right about now to decipher the winds of change in free agency. After faint February hope that mediation would lead to a new CBA freeing all four- and five-year vets, Judge Nelson's April injunction of the lockout seemed to herald a return to 2010 league rules.
Entering May, it was fair to believe an NFLPA win would be bittersweet for players with 4-5 years of accrued service. Mediation leading to a new CBA, on the other hand, would put those players back on the open market as unrestricted free agents. It seemed cut and dried as recently as last week that one of those two scenarios would play out. That's no longer the case. The NFL is now
crafting alternative free-agency rules that will not replicate the 2010 blueprint. In other words, we could have a situation where four-year players remain beholden to their teams while five-year veterans gain freedom.
The upshot is that we have no idea on free-agency specifics as of press time.
DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart fantasy owners are already at their wits' end, pleading for
serenity now.
What is clear post-draft is that free-agent running backs will find a depressed market once the new league year begins. The Bengals, Colts, and Giants are the teams with the most striking needs, but those could easily be filled by
Cedric Benson,
Joseph Addai, and
Ahmad Bradshaw. The majority of teams looking to round out their backfields will be shopping for complementary pieces, not workhorses.
As CBSSports.com's Rob Rang
recently pointed out, the running back position is becoming specialized like starting pitcher, middle reliever, setup-man, and closer in baseball. For that reason, chess pieces (i.e.
Darren Sproles,
Reggie Bush) could have far more value than average starters.
Let's start with running backs certain to be available once transactions are allowed.
Surefire Running Back Free Agents1. Cedric Benson, BengalsScouting Report: Benson was one of the most overworked backs in the league in 2009, grinding out tough yards against a string of stout defenses on his way to a career year. Those 23 carries per game caught up with him last season, as his per-carry average dropped from 4.2 to 3.5. More worrisome, his only four games over 4.0 yards per carry came against defenses ranked 32nd, 28th and 27th (twice) against the run. Throw in a checkered off-the-field history, and there are enough red flags here to scare off teams putting in their due diligence.
Availability: Benson has made it crystal clear that he's looking for one last serious contract in free agency. The Bengals ignored running back until the seventh round of the draft, and coach Marvin Lewis acknowledges that re-signing Benson will be the top priority once free agency begins. Lewis wants to turn the clock back to 2009, saddle up his plowhorse again, and use a defense/ground attack now that the Bengals are moving on from
Carson Palmer,
Chad Ochocinco, and
Terrell Owens. In other words, the Bengals are set to make the same mistake in organizational philosophy that the Bears made in reaching for Benson at No. 4 overall in 2005. With the exception of the best defense of the past 25 years (2000 Ravens), stout defense and ball-control offense don't win Super Bowls -- elite quarterbacks do. Benson may think he can do better than $5 million per year. In related news, Benson is delusional.
Prediction: Bengals on a three-year, $15 million contract.
2. Darren Sproles, ChargersScouting Report: A true specialist, the undersized but explosive Sproles has been limited to passing-down duties and kick returns since entering the league. The past three years have taken on a
Devin Hester effect. Sproles has shouldered more responsibility in the passing game only to see his effectiveness on returns wane. It's just as well. There
hasn't been a better receiving back in the league since the start of the 2008 season, so Sproles' return duties should be scaled back as a nod to his passing-game prowess.
Availability: After collecting $13.9 million under the franchise tag the past two seasons, Sproles is due to finally hit the open market. The Bolts are expected to at least make an offer, but they're almost certain to be outbid by teams in need of a passing-down threat and kick-returner. The Dolphins and Rams figure to show the most interest. Tony Sparano is looking for a "homerun hitter" in the passing game while Josh McDaniels needs a
Danny Woodhead type to round out his 2010 Patriots' attack in St. Louis.
Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $14 million contract.
3. Ronnie Brown, DolphinsScouting Report: Brown's per-play performance was down across the board, finishing with a career-worst 3.68 yards per carry in a contract year. Worse, his per-carry average dropped to 3.00 flat over the final eight games of the season while he was consistently outplayed by a 33-year-old
Ricky Williams. A "
walking stitch in personnel medical terms," Brown is a 29-year-old back with major wear and tear knee issues. One of the most dynamic backs in the league before a 2007 ACL tear, Brown is now purely a role player.
Availability: Bill Belichick is a big Brown fan, but that well dried up when the Pats drafted two backs in the first three rounds last month. The Dolphins have sidestepped questions about re-signing Brown. With big back
Daniel Thomas now on board, GM Jeff Ireland is expected to target a "scatback" to share the load. The Dolphins have no depth behind Thomas, though, and Brown is "very interested" in returning to Miami with little projected interest on the open market.
Prediction: Dolphins on a two-year, $7 million contract.
4. Ricky Williams, DolphinsScouting Report: Maybe it was the three-year sabbatical. Maybe it's the yoga. Whatever the cause, the effect is that Williams has yet to hit the running-back wall as he enters his mid-30s. While
Ronnie Brown wore down noticeably in November and December, Williams maintained an even per-carry average of 4.2 throughout the season. Considering the Dolphins' run-blocking woes late last year, it's realistic to believe Ricky can play at a high level for at least one more season.
Availability: Williams was expected to walk away from the game after his one-year extension ran out in early January. He reversed course, instead, suggesting he had hit on the "right formula" for stay healthy and successful into his mid-30s. Williams would prefer to stay in Miami, but he hasn't been given "reason for optimism" on that front. He can still help a contender in a complementary role. Parcells coaching tree member Todd Haley could use Ricky in Kansas City as between-the-tackles insurance for a rapidly declining
Thomas Jones.
Prediction: Chiefs on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." -- Bob Dylan
With apologies to ol' Mr. Zimmerman, we could use a weatherman right about now to decipher the winds of change in free agency. After faint February hope that mediation would lead to a new CBA freeing all four- and five-year vets, Judge Nelson's April injunction of the lockout seemed to herald a return to 2010 league rules.
Entering May, it was fair to believe an NFLPA win would be bittersweet for players with 4-5 years of accrued service. Mediation leading to a new CBA, on the other hand, would put those players back on the open market as unrestricted free agents. It seemed cut and dried as recently as last week that one of those two scenarios would play out. That's no longer the case. The NFL is now
crafting alternative free-agency rules that will not replicate the 2010 blueprint. In other words, we could have a situation where four-year players remain beholden to their teams while five-year veterans gain freedom.
The upshot is that we have no idea on free-agency specifics as of press time.
DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart fantasy owners are already at their wits' end, pleading for
serenity now.
What is clear post-draft is that free-agent running backs will find a depressed market once the new league year begins. The Bengals, Colts, and Giants are the teams with the most striking needs, but those could easily be filled by
Cedric Benson,
Joseph Addai, and
Ahmad Bradshaw. The majority of teams looking to round out their backfields will be shopping for complementary pieces, not workhorses.
As CBSSports.com's Rob Rang
recently pointed out, the running back position is becoming specialized like starting pitcher, middle reliever, setup-man, and closer in baseball. For that reason, chess pieces (i.e.
Darren Sproles,
Reggie Bush) could have far more value than average starters.
Let's start with running backs certain to be available once transactions are allowed.
Surefire Running Back Free Agents1. Cedric Benson, BengalsScouting Report: Benson was one of the most overworked backs in the league in 2009, grinding out tough yards against a string of stout defenses on his way to a career year. Those 23 carries per game caught up with him last season, as his per-carry average dropped from 4.2 to 3.5. More worrisome, his only four games over 4.0 yards per carry came against defenses ranked 32nd, 28th and 27th (twice) against the run. Throw in a checkered off-the-field history, and there are enough red flags here to scare off teams putting in their due diligence.
Availability: Benson has made it crystal clear that he's looking for one last serious contract in free agency. The Bengals ignored running back until the seventh round of the draft, and coach Marvin Lewis acknowledges that re-signing Benson will be the top priority once free agency begins. Lewis wants to turn the clock back to 2009, saddle up his plowhorse again, and use a defense/ground attack now that the Bengals are moving on from
Carson Palmer,
Chad Ochocinco, and
Terrell Owens. In other words, the Bengals are set to make the same mistake in organizational philosophy that the Bears made in reaching for Benson at No. 4 overall in 2005. With the exception of the best defense of the past 25 years (2000 Ravens), stout defense and ball-control offense don't win Super Bowls -- elite quarterbacks do. Benson may think he can do better than $5 million per year. In related news, Benson is delusional.
Prediction: Bengals on a three-year, $15 million contract.
2. Darren Sproles, ChargersScouting Report: A true specialist, the undersized but explosive Sproles has been limited to passing-down duties and kick returns since entering the league. The past three years have taken on a
Devin Hester effect. Sproles has shouldered more responsibility in the passing game only to see his effectiveness on returns wane. It's just as well. There
hasn't been a better receiving back in the league since the start of the 2008 season, so Sproles' return duties should be scaled back as a nod to his passing-game prowess.
Availability: After collecting $13.9 million under the franchise tag the past two seasons, Sproles is due to finally hit the open market. The Bolts are expected to at least make an offer, but they're almost certain to be outbid by teams in need of a passing-down threat and kick-returner. The Dolphins and Rams figure to show the most interest. Tony Sparano is looking for a "homerun hitter" in the passing game while Josh McDaniels needs a
Danny Woodhead type to round out his 2010 Patriots' attack in St. Louis.
Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $14 million contract.
3. Ronnie Brown, DolphinsScouting Report: Brown's per-play performance was down across the board, finishing with a career-worst 3.68 yards per carry in a contract year. Worse, his per-carry average dropped to 3.00 flat over the final eight games of the season while he was consistently outplayed by a 33-year-old
Ricky Williams. A "
walking stitch in personnel medical terms," Brown is a 29-year-old back with major wear and tear knee issues. One of the most dynamic backs in the league before a 2007 ACL tear, Brown is now purely a role player.
Availability: Bill Belichick is a big Brown fan, but that well dried up when the Pats drafted two backs in the first three rounds last month. The Dolphins have sidestepped questions about re-signing Brown. With big back
Daniel Thomas now on board, GM Jeff Ireland is expected to target a "scatback" to share the load. The Dolphins have no depth behind Thomas, though, and Brown is "very interested" in returning to Miami with little projected interest on the open market.
Prediction: Dolphins on a two-year, $7 million contract.
4. Ricky Williams, DolphinsScouting Report: Maybe it was the three-year sabbatical. Maybe it's the yoga. Whatever the cause, the effect is that Williams has yet to hit the running-back wall as he enters his mid-30s. While
Ronnie Brown wore down noticeably in November and December, Williams maintained an even per-carry average of 4.2 throughout the season. Considering the Dolphins' run-blocking woes late last year, it's realistic to believe Ricky can play at a high level for at least one more season.
Availability: Williams was expected to walk away from the game after his one-year extension ran out in early January. He reversed course, instead, suggesting he had hit on the "right formula" for stay healthy and successful into his mid-30s. Williams would prefer to stay in Miami, but he hasn't been given "reason for optimism" on that front. He can still help a contender in a complementary role. Parcells coaching tree member Todd Haley could use Ricky in Kansas City as between-the-tackles insurance for a rapidly declining
Thomas Jones.
Prediction: Chiefs on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
5. Kevin Smith, LionsScouting Report: The small 2010 sample size suggests Smith is the same back he was as a rookie. He's a pedestrian runner with above-average receiving skills. Unfortunately, his body is giving out after a ridiculous 450 carries his junior year at UCF, followed by a heavy workload his first season and a half in Detroit. Smith is coming off surgery to his thumb and right shoulder after spending last offseason recovering from a torn ACL. He also played through serious injuries to both shoulders in 2009.
Availability: The Lions failed to extend a tender to the three-year veteran, sending him to the open market. The Lions' actions suggest Smith is damaged goods. Though guaranteed money could be hard to come by, Smith may land a make-good deal as a backup / third-down back. He'll have to prove he's healthy in training camp and preseason action. Early offseason reports suggested Smith would love to play in Miami.
Prediction: Signs with Dolphins on non-guaranteed contract.
6. Clinton Portis, RedskinsScouting Report: Due in large part to 325+ carries in four of his first five years with the Redskins, Portis is fourth among active backs in attempts before reaching his 30th birthday. Limited to 13-of-32 games the past two years, Portis has been dogged by serious concussion issues in addition to injuries to both knees, both ankles, a calf, a hip, his back, and his neck. While he can still grind out tough yards and pass block with the best of the best, Portis simply can't stay out of the trainers room. Any semblance of big-play ability vanished three years ago. It doesn't help Portis' cause that he's always a threat to run off at the mouth as well.
Availability: The Redskins released Portis in February, taking themselves off the hook for $25 million over the next three years -- including $8.25 million in 2011. With his body breaking down and his effectiveness waning, Portis offers little more than veteran savvy and killer pass protection. If he doesn't settle for the veteran minimum, there's a good chance Portis' NFL career is over. The Bears could give him a shot at protecting
Jay Cutler if
Chester Taylor fails to impress this summer.
Prediction: Signs with the Bears at the end of the summer.
7. Tiki Barber, GiantsScouting Report: Barber is wading into uncharted waters as a 36-year-old back four years removed from his last carry. While the history of backs his age is rather ominous, Tiki does have several factors working in his favor. He was absolutely on top of his game when he walked away from a three-year average of 2,204 total yards in 2007. Additionally, his injury history is clean and his legs are fresh. What life he has left in those legs is pure guesswork, but it's certainly conceivable that Tiki could contribute valuable snaps on passing downs. Just remember: it wasn't that long ago when it was crazy to suggest the comebacks of
Ricky Williams and
Michael Vick would
not go down in flames.
Availability: Barber's rights technically belong to the Giants, but the team has already made it clear that the 36-year-old will be released as soon as the lockout is officially lifted. Had they opted to retain Barber, the Mara family would be on the hook for the final two years of Barber's pre-retirement contract. Instead, Barber will try to latch on
with his twin brother in Tampa, likely for the veteran league minimum plus incentives.
Prediction: Buccaneers on a one-year, $865,000 contract.
Other surefire free agent running backs: Cadillac Williams,
Brian Westbrook,
Jerious Norwood,
Laurence Maroney,
Julius Jones,
Mike Bell,
Mewelde Moore,
Kevin Faulk,
Sammy Morris,
Fred Taylor,
Larry Johnson,
Dominic Rhodes,
Ladell Betts,
Kenneth Darby,
Ladell Betts,
Kareem HugginsThree- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents1. DeAngelo Williams, PanthersScouting Report: Williams' 2010 per-play numbers slipped due to the Panthers' early-season QB and run-blocking woes. Over five years, his per-carry average of 5.0 yards stacks up with Barry Sanders and
Chris Johnson -- and ahead of
Adrian Peterson. As recently as 2008, he was arguably the best back in the NFL, showing great patience and vision, outstanding burst to the outside, toughness up the middle, and the requisite big play ability. Williams has missed 13 games the past two years with foot and ankle sprains, but the flip side is that he's never been overworked. His legs couldn't be more fresh heading into the 2011 season.
Availability: Williams drew a first- and third-round RFA tender from Carolina. As a veteran of five years, his freedom is dependant on the specifics of the next labor agrement. Having
failed to erase doubts that he can handle the feature-back role in Denver,
Knowshon Moreno will have plenty of company in the backfield under his new run-oriented head coach. John Fox's veteran fetish has an obvious outlet in form of Williams, who has starred under Fox's watch the past few seasons. Even if Williams ends up restricted again, the rebuilding Panthers are better off accepting draft picks in a trade.
Prediction: Broncos via trade or signing.
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, GiantsScouting Report: The all-purpose dual threat finally wrested control of the feature back job, breaking out for career-highs in carries (276), rushing yards (1,235), TDs (8), and receptions (47). Combining a big back's physicality with a small back's skill-set and elusiveness, Bradshaw graded out well in the ratings of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. On the negative side, Bradshaw was benched late in the season with ball protection issues. He's also recovering from a fourth procedure to his ankles and feet in the past two offseasons.
Availability: The Giants entered the offseason assuring the four-year vet that his signing would be a "
priority." Originally expected to draw the highest possible tender, Bradshaw ended up at the second-round level with the bulk of his free-agent teammates. The Giants were reluctant to tender any of their RFAs, "
so they decided to just tender everyone the same." Bradshaw is coming off a true breakout campaign, but we suspect teams would still be hesitant to part with a second-round pick considering his injury history and smashmouth style.
Prediction: Giants on his one-year restricted tender, leading to a long-term deal.
3. Joseph Addai, ColtsScouting Report: Addai is a mediocre runner lacking homerun-hitting ability, but he works well in the Colts offense as a strong pass blocker and outlet receiver. The coaching staff has done well to protect him with reasonable workloads, but he's still missed 13 games over the past three years -- including half of last season with nerve damage to his neck and shoulder area. The Colts sorely missed Addai when he was out of the lineup in 2010.
Availability: In the midst of a depressed running-back market, Addai is
expected to return to Indianapolis on his one-year tender. The contract specifics could change pending the labor outcome, but Addai's options will be limited at age 28 and coming off an injury-ravaged season. His skill set is worth more to
Peyton Manning and the Colts than it is to other teams.
Prediction: Colts on his one-year restricted tender.
4. Michael Bush, RaidersScouting Report: An injury concern coming into the league, Bush has missed just three games in three years compared to nine for starter
Darren McFadden. Bush grades out as above average in running, blocking, and receiving in Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Also a fine short-yardage hammer, Bush is key backup capable of carrying a starter's workload in case of emergency.
Availability: There was some confusion as to whether the four-year veteran's rookie season counts toward free agency since he spent the year on the Non-football Injury list with a broken leg. The Raiders moved to cover their backside regardless, assigning a prohibitive first- and third-round tender to the power back. Owner Al Davis has no intention of losing Bush, new free-agent rules or not.
Prediction: Raiders on his one-year restricted tender.
5. Mike Tolbert, ChargersScouting Report: A throwback to the days of running fullbacks, Tolbert was a godsend for the Bolts' ground game with rookie
Ryan Mathews nursing an assortment of injuries. At 5'9/245, Tolbert has the bowling ball effect down pat, bouncing off and rolling over defenders. Tolbert racked up 735 yards and 11 scores on 182 carries (4.0 YPC) while chipping in 25 receptions last season for career bests across the board. Mathews figures to get the starting nod in 2011, but he should give way to a stronger Tolbert on passing downs and short-yardage situations.
Availability: As a three-year vet, Tolbert's free agency is restricted regardless of the CBA outcome. The Chargers' second-round tender is sufficient enough to scare away potential suitors following the smash-mouth runner's emergence as a capable timeshare back. Tobert will return to San Diego as a complement to Mathews.
Prediction: Chargers on his one-year restricted tender.
6. Tim Hightower, CardinalsScouting Report: Hightower outplayed
Beanie Wells last season but saw his receptions drop from 63 to 21 with the unholy triumvirate of
Derek Anderson,
Max Hall, and
John Skelton under center. The second straight major increase in yards per carry average was offset by fumbling issues that landed him in the doghouse by season's end. Hightower makes for a fine complementary back in a committee attack.
Availability: Hightower has put in just three seasons, so his hands are tied no matter the outcome of the CBA. The Cardinals immediately cited Hightower's fumble-itis as a primary motive for picking up
Ryan Williams in the second round last month. Having fallen out of favor as the lead back, Hightower is headed for a scaled-back role -- possibly third on the depth chart.
Prediction: Cardinals on his one-year restricted tender.
7. Jason Snelling, FalconsScouting Report: Shattering the preconception of big backs, Snelling struggles in short-yardage situations but makes up for it by exhibiting smooth pass-catching skills. After posting career rushing numbers as a capable fill-in for
Michael Turner in 2009, Snelling hauled in 44 receptions as
Jerious Norwood's replacement on third downs last season. Solid in all facets but unspectacular, Snelling is the ideal old-school backup.
Availability: The five-year veteran was assigned a second-round tender in early March. Even with change-of-pace rookie
Jacquizz Rodgers on board, Snelling is a good bet to return regardless of the labor situation. He's one of the few backups in the league capable of shouldering the same workload as the starter.
Prediction: Falcons on his one-year restricted tender.
8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, PatriotsScouting Report: Green-Ellis has one major skill that endears him to his head coach: he stays away from negative plays like a bizarro
Laurence Maroney. Green-Ellis is the textbook definition of a replacement-level talent, but he does well in short-yardage, effectively kills the clock, and has a knack for falling forward for extra yardage. His counting stats were artificially inflated in a breakout campaign because the Patriots played with a commanding lead in all but one game from mid-season on.
Availability: "Law Firm" is a restricted free agent with three accrued years, so he won't hit the open market regardless of the labor outcome. Tendered at the second-round level, Green-Ellis isn't going anywhere even after a career year in 2010. His workload figures to be scaled back significantly, though, with early-round backs
Shane Vereen and
Stevan Ridley added to the backfield mix.
Prediction: Patriots on his one-year restricted tender.
9. Jerome Harrison, EaglesScouting Report: Harrison and his staunch defenders had been requesting a change of scenery for some time when he was dealt to the Eagles for
Mike Bell. His role actually decreased in Philly, but he continued to flash in limited playing time, averaging 6.0 yards on 40 carries as the change-of-pace to
LeSean McCoy. Harrison's career per-carry average of 4.8 suggests he's long been under-utilized, but he's yet to meet a coach who believes he can hold up to a starter's workload.
Availability: Like Williams and Addai, Harrison has already accrued five years of NFL service. He received a tender offer before the March 3 deadline, though the level is unclear. Harrison is in search of a bigger role at age 28, but the Eagles reportedly want him back as McCoy's caddy.
Prediction: Eagles on his one-year restricted tender.
10. Brandon Jackson, PackersScouting Report: A fine role player, Jackson was asked to shoulder too heavy of a burden in Green Bay's offense when
Ryan Grant went down for the season. Jackson is a quality receiver with a knack for blitz-pickup, but he's simply not up to the task as a runner. Though he finished with career-high counting stats, Jackson managed just 3.7 yards per carry before
James Starks bailed him out in the playoffs.
Availability: After initial speculation to the contrary, Jackson did receive an RFA tender -- likely of the original-pick variety. As a four-year veteran, his freedom hinges on the outcome of the labor squabble. It's not inconceivable that Green Bay could rescind the offer after picking up third-down successor,
Alex Green, in the third round of the draft. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson
suggests Jackson as
Mewelde Moore's successor in Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Steelers on a two-year, $3 million contract.
Other three- to five-year restricted running backs: LeRon McClain,
Jalen Parmele,
Marcel Reece,
Mike Hart,
Patrick Cobbs,
Brian Leonard,
John Kuhn,
Lynell HamiltonTrade Candidates1. Beanie Wells, CardinalsScouting Report: Wells never came close to his 2009 explosiveness and physicality after tearing his meniscus in the preseason finale last summer. He recovered slowly from the knee scope and looked timid and plodding after a mid-season setback. Wells finished his second season with a per-carry average of 3.4 while bringing up the rear in Pro Football Focus' "
Elusive Rating" for running backs.
Availability: The Cardinals
shot down speculation that the addition of second-rounder
Ryan Williams was a "message" being sent to Wells or a harbinger of a trade in the works. That didn't stop one local columnist from
officially declaring Wells a first-round bust after one impressive season and one injured season. Preferring a two-back attack, coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't envision Williams
carrying the load in Arizona. Wells put enough on tape late in 2009 to believe he's every bit as talented as Williams -- as long as his knee checks out.
Prediction: Stays with Cardinals
2. Tashard Choice, CowboysScouting Report: Choice has quite simply produced every time he's been given a fair shake. It wasn't long after Choice's game-changing Week 1 fumble, though, that owner Jerry Jones began complaining about his lack of special teams value while standing firmly behind an ineffective
Marion Barber. The most well-rounded back in Dallas the past three years, Choice has averaged 100+ yards in nine career games with at least 10 touches. He's sitting on impressive averages of 4.8 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception in his three-year career.
Availability: For whatever reason, new head coach Jason Garrett is "
not enamored" of Choice. We trust that he has his reasons. Let's hope they go beyond special teams value. The Cowboys' official website acknowledges that Choice was
shopped last season to no avail. With
DeMarco Murray on board as Choice's potential third-down replacement, the front office will be fielding calls again this summer.
Prediction: Stays with Cowboys, available at the October trade deadline.
3. Steve Slaton, TexansScouting Report: The combination of fumbling issues, general ineffectiveness, and neck surgery sent Slaton from the penthouse to the outhouse by the time training camp rolled around last summer. His ideal role has always been passing-down specialist, but the Texans soon realized
Arian Foster was too valuable to take off the field in those situations. Slaton was largely relegated to kickoff-return duty, rushing just 19 times and catching three passes in 2010. He's breaking new NFL ground as a running back playing with a cervical fusion in his neck.
Availability: Foster is entrenched as the starter, 2010 second-rounder
Ben Tate is now healthy, and veteran
Derrick Ward was brought back on a one-year deal. Slaton is the odd man out for a team that won't carry four tailbacks. GM Rick Smith figures to shop the third-down back around, but the rest of the league knows he could be available for free by September. Slaton figures to fetch no more than a conditional late-round pick. The zone-blocking Redskins, with Slaton's former offensive coordinator calling the plays, could have interest.
Prediction: Redskins via trade.
Release Candidates1. Reggie Bush, SaintsScouting Report: Bush hasn't made it through a 16-game season in five years, so it was no surprise that he missed half of 2010 with yet another lower-leg injury. Bush's effectiveness waned as a runner and a receiver last season. His stutter-step isn't fooling anyone, and he continues to break all runs to the outside. Bush does have his occasional moments of brilliance, though. With top-notch receiving skills and elusiveness, Bush needs a creative play-caller and an intelligent quarterback who understands how to best utilize hybrid players in a chess match against defensive coordinators.
Availability: "It's been fun, New Orleans." That just about sums it up. Sean Payton's
post-draft comments notwithstanding, Bush's camp has made it clear that it's
time to move on after the drafting of
Mark Ingram.
Neither the Saints nor any other team is going to shell out $11.8 million in 2011 for a role player. If Bush wants his freedom, all he has to do is refuse to restructure his contract. He's essentially an unrestricted free agent right now. As
PFT's Mike Florio and
Saints beat writer Mike Triplett have suggested, Bush's ideal landing spot may be St. Louis as
Steven Jackson's change of pace -- and a key pawn for Josh McDaniels' Patriots-style offense.
Update: Bush is now reversing course, stating his desire "
first and foremost" to remain with the Saints on a new contract.
Prediction: Restructures, signs long-term deal with Saints.
2. Ryan Grant, PackersScouting Report: One of the most durable backs in the league while racking up 1,200+ rushing yards in 2008 and 2009, Grant carried the ball just eight times last year before going down with a season-ending ankle injury. Grant has been one of the least effective passing-down backs in the league, but he's a strong and reliable runner between the tackles.
Availability: Grant is slated to collect a $1.75 million roster bonus on the 15th day of the league year in addition to a $3.5 million base salary in the final year of his contract. The bad news is that he's coming off ankle surgery,
James Starks has emerged as a capable starter,
Alex Green was drafted in the third round, and
Brandon Jackson may not reach unrestricted free agency. The good news is that the Packers will be defending their title with the strongest roster in the league. A healthy Grant is a more effective and proven runner than Starks.
Prediction: Stays with Packers
3. Willis McGahee, RavensScouting Report: McGahee failed to repeat his short-yardage magic for a second straight season, and the Ravens were believed to be shopping him heavily at the October trade deadline. McGahee's workload tailed off afteward, and he finished the season with a career-low 3.76 yards per carry, including the playoffs. He graded out well below average in the metrics of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders.
Availability: The Ravens aren't going to pay McGahee's $6 million base salary to back up
Ray Rice for another season. McGahee is intent on testing the market for a chance at a starting gig, so there will be a mutual parting of ways. McGahee best fits in as a between-the-tackles complement to a more versatile lead back. Heading into his age-30 season, he may be left standing on the sidelines until a starter goes down with an injury in training camp. The Ravens could end up bringing him back at a much lower rate.
Prediction: Released, re-signs with Ravens.
4. Marion Barber, CowboysScouting Report: After entering the year in a timeshare with
Felix Jones, a painfully slow Barber played himself out of a job by averaging a scant 2.97 yards per carry in the season's first half. Perhaps most troubling, Barber wasn't even showing his trademark power in short-yardage situations. He ended up posting career-lows across the board, finishing near the bottom of the metrics used by both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus. No one doubts Barber's toughness, but his soft tissue injuries the past two seasons are an additional red flag.
Availability: Barber is as good as gone unless owner Jerry Jones forks over a $500,000 roster bonus by June 3 or the start of the league year. If half-a-million seems relatively paltry, keep in mind that sum only preserves the right to pay Barber another $4.25 million in base salary. The addition of third-rounder
DeMarco Murray ensures that Barber won't see another dime from the Cowboys after pocketing a $12 million signing bonus in 2008. Barber is going to have to accept a backup gig at this point in his career. Even if the Rams pick up a third-down back, they still have no insurance for a
Steven Jackson injury.
Prediction: Released, signs with Rams.
5. Brandon Jacobs, GiantsScouting Report: Relegated to a situational role behind
Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs bounced back from a disappointing 2009 campaign with a career-best 5.6 yards per on just 147 carries. The Giants' plan to limit Jacobs' touches worked to a tee, as Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus rated the big back as a more effective per-play runner than impressive feature back Bradshaw. Although practically useless in the passing game, Jacobs is the quintessential "thunder" in a tandem attack.
Availability: Jacobs is due $4.65 million in base salary with Bradshaw's Giants future up in the air. In a bizarre offseason juxtaposition, Jacobs was giving mixed signals on the possibility of accepting a "fair" paycut at the same time his head coach was insisting the big back had "
plenty left in the tank" and was deserving of more carries. Whether he settles for a gentle restructuring or not, Jacobs' roster spot seems secure.
Prediction: Stays with Giants.
6. Chester Taylor, BearsScouting Report: Among all backs with 100 carries, Taylor finished last in the NFL at 2.4 yards per carry while also bringing up the rear in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings. Taylor's blocking ability saved him from the bottom rung of Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Our game charters noted on several occasions that Taylor lacked any semblance of a burst going through the line. The Bears' lead-blocking wasn't exactly stellar, but
Matt Forte still managed a healthy 4.5 yards per on 125 more carries.
Availability: The Bears paid Taylor more than $6 million to watch him run on fumes last season. The $1.25 million due this year is reasonable in comparison, and the position was ignored in the draft. Turning 32 in September, Taylor has reached the stage where he's easily replaceable, however. GM Jerry Angelo made it clear the third-down specialist would have to earn his way onto the roster this summer..
Prediction: Released in final cuts.
More Running Back Release Candidates: Maurice Morris,
Correll Buckhalter,
LenDale White,
Earnest GrahamFollow
Chris Wesseling on Twitter.