5. Ike Taylor, cornerbackScouting Report: Taylor has never been to a Pro Bowl or intercepted more than three passes in a season, so he's rarely talked about among the league's elite. He's also 31 years old. Taylor offers rare size (6'2/195) at the position and gives big receivers fits with physical play at the line of scrimmage. He's also a top-notch tackling corner with experience in both man and zone coverage, depending on Dick LeBeau's play call. Though not a true shutdown corner, Taylor is well rounded and exceptionally durable. He's played in 107 straight games, including playoffs.
Availability: Pittsburgh writers consider him a lock to re-sign, but a Profootballtalk report and recent comments from the player strongly indicate that Taylor would prefer to test the market. "I need that market value," Taylor said on May 18. "I feel so unappreciated, so underrated at my position. I feel like it's time to get my worth, in whatever city that's in." It will probably come from a team that falls short in the Asomugha bidding. Skins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett's scheme is an offshoot of LeBeau's, and Washington is expected to be aggressive in free agency.
Prediction: Redskins on a four-year, $30 million contract.
6. Jason Babin, defensive endScouting Report: Babin was the 27th overall pick in the 2004 draft, but he didn't meet expectations until his fifth team in the NFL. Sitting on a career high of 5.0 sacks entering 2010, Babin busted loose for 12.5 in his first season with the Titans. Babin is a speed rusher at 6-foot-3, 260, and benefited from lining up wide of the formation in now-former Tennessee line coach Jim Washburn's scheme. Babin has been tried as an outside linebacker in 3-4 defenses before, but those experiments failed. He's a pure hand-in-the-dirt edge rusher best utilized in a wave rotation.
Availability: Under new line coach Tracy Rocker, the Titans want to get bigger in the front four. The team's new philosophy means Babin will only be viewed as a situational pass rusher in Nashville. Babin will likely try to parlay the big year into the best contract he can get. Because of his age and spotty track record, teams will and should be wary of overpaying Babin.
Prediction: Lions on a three-year, $14.5 million contract.
7. Quintin Mikell, safetyScouting Report: Annually among the NFL's top tackling defensive backs, Mikell also quietly earned high marks in coverage as the Eagles' strong safety. Pro Football Focus has rated Mikell as a top-eight cover safety in each of the last three seasons, and he was No. 1 in the league last year. Mikell has created 16 turnovers during that span and missed just one game. He turns 31 in September, however, and Philadelphia's blitz-happy front seven tends to make safeties look better than they are. And it may be telling that the Eagles have already moved on from Mikell.
Availability: Mikell won't be back in Philly after the team drafted
Jaiquawn Jarrett with the 54th pick. Coaches on the Eagles' staff while Mikell was there include Ron Rivera, Steve Spagnuolo, John Harbaugh, and Pat Shurmur. At least three of those have needs at strong safety on their current rosters, and Mikell will be appealing because of his familiarity and effectiveness.
Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $20.8 million contract.
8. Barrett Ruud, linebackerScouting Report: Incredibly productive, Ruud has ranked fourth, second, and 18th in the league in tackles over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, Ruud's tackle numbers don't translate to stout defense, as the Bucs have ranked 19th, 32nd, and 28th against the run. Ruud is a gifted athlete with sideline-to-sideline range, but the majority of his tackles occur downfield. He is a three-down linebacker with cover skills. It's possible that Ruud's best position would be on the weak side, where he could worry less about run plugging and just let his athleticism take over.
Availability: Ruud, 28, is an unrestricted free agent and available to the highest bidder. While Raheem Morris has toed the company line by saying the Bucs want Ruud back, the team's actions speak louder than their words; they drafted middle linebacker of the future
Mason Foster with the 84th overall pick. Ruud is likely to land elsewhere, and the Jaguars make sense as a linebacker-needy team that could use a reliable young tackler in the middle or on the weak side.
Prediction: Jaguars on a five-year, $34 million contract.
When we started our positional market analysis on May 10, it appeared possible, maybe even likely, that the 2011 NFL season would be played under a lockout injunction and 2010 rules. A new Collective Bargaining Agreement has become much more probable over the past month.
Five-year free agents are likely to be unrestricted, and four-year UFA/RFAs probably will be too. If so, it's going to be easily
the best free agent crop we have ever seen. Teams were wary of extending players all last year, so expiring contracts have almost become the norm. Expect a wild few weeks when free agency kicks off.
This is the last installment of our market previews. For the first four columns, bang it here:
The Quarterback MarketThe Running Back MarketThe Wide Receiver MarketThe Tight End MarketSurefire Free Agent Defenders1. Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerbackScouting Report: Though rarely allowed to "shadow" No. 1 receivers in Oakland, Asomugha has earned a reputation as a shutdown cornerback for his man-to-man cover skills. The Raiders used him at right corner, where Asomugha dealt with split end-type, vertical receivers like
Andre Johnson,
Brandon Marshall, and
Brandon Lloyd. Johnson, the best wideout in the game, has been held to stat lines of 2/66/0, 2/19/0, and 1/9/0 in his career against Asomugha. For the most part, offenses have simply refused to throw at Asomugha's RCB position over the past several seasons. He has not exceeded 40 tackles or one interception in any of the last four years.
Availability: Asomugha's contract, originally worth $45.3 million over three years, voided at season's end because he failed to meet certain statistical barriers. (Because no one throws at him.) Asomugha belongs in a system that allows corners to play press-man coverage rather than zone. His highest degree of interest when free agency begins is expected to come from the NFC East. Signing Asomugha could be the move that puts Philadelphia over the top.
Prediction: Eagles on a five-year, $72 million contract.
2. Aubrayo Franklin, defensive tackleScouting Report: Built low to the ground at 6-foot-1, 320 with a thunderously thick lower body, Franklin is the quintessential 3-4 nose tackle. He offers nothing in the way of pass rush, but has mastered the art of "two-gapping" as a double team-commanding interior presence. The 49ers have fielded a top-six run defense in each of the past two years, and their paltry 3.55 yards-per-carry average allowed during that span is largely attributable to Franklin's dirty work in front of
Patrick Willis. Immovable, athletic specimen like Franklin are tremendously difficult to find.
Availability: After Franklin held out of 2010 camp due to dissatisfaction with the franchise tag, the new 49ers brass opted against tagging him for a second straight year. This is what Franklin has wanted all along -- freedom to test his wares on the open market -- so it's a safe bet that he'll take the best offer available. Franklin turns 31 before the season, and there's buyer-beware risk here. As for a contract,
Casey Hampton's 2010 deal will be the starting point.
Prediction: Redskins on a four-year, $32 million contract.
3. Matt Roth, defensive end/outside linebackerScouting Report: Roth has never been a big sack guy -- his career high is 5.0 in 2008 -- but he plays with a relentless motor and is a highly physical run defender. Pro Football Focus has rated Roth as a top-seven run-stopping outside linebacker in each of the past two seasons. At 6-foot-4, 275, however, Roth's best NFL position would be left defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. He played defensive end early in his career under Nick Saban with the Dolphins.
Availability: The 46th pick in the '05 draft, Roth is a six-year unrestricted free agent regardless of CBA rules. He'll look to max out on the open market at age 28. Roth has shown impressive versatility for a front seven defender, which will appeal to teams like the Jets, Patriots, and Ravens. It also makes sense for the Browns to keep him as
Jabaal Sheard's bookend. Bill Belichick can get an in-depth Roth scouting report from Saban, his former defensive coordinator.
Prediction: Patriots on a five-year, $29 million contract.
4. Cullen Jenkins, defensive linemanScouting Report: A late bloomer and former undrafted free agent, Jenkins did a stint in NFL Europe before landing a spot on Green Bay's roster in 2005. The team's starting right end since overtaking
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Jenkins has shown a complete game when healthy. But that's the rub. Jenkins has missed 17 games over the past three seasons, last year battling a fractured hand and torn calf, and in 2009 going on I.R. with a torn pectoral. Jenkins is 6-foot-2, 305, so the eyeball test says he'd be better suited for an interior position outside of Green Bay.
Availability: The Packers didn't use the franchise tag, and Mike McCarthy spoke of Jenkins in the past tense at his year-ending press conference. "I really enjoyed coaching Cullen," the coach said in February. Speculation has linked Jenkins to the Bears, Redskins, and Broncos. He can project to a variety of positions in all schemes, so there should be no shortage of suitors.
Prediction: Seahawks on a four-year, $22.5 million contract.
5. Ike Taylor, cornerbackScouting Report: Taylor has never been to a Pro Bowl or intercepted more than three passes in a season, so he's rarely talked about among the league's elite. He's also 31 years old. Taylor offers rare size (6'2/195) at the position and gives big receivers fits with physical play at the line of scrimmage. He's also a top-notch tackling corner with experience in both man and zone coverage, depending on Dick LeBeau's play call. Though not a true shutdown corner, Taylor is well rounded and exceptionally durable. He's played in 107 straight games, including playoffs.
Availability: Pittsburgh writers consider him a lock to re-sign, but a Profootballtalk report and recent comments from the player strongly indicate that Taylor would prefer to test the market. "I need that market value," Taylor said on May 18. "I feel so unappreciated, so underrated at my position. I feel like it's time to get my worth, in whatever city that's in." It will probably come from a team that falls short in the Asomugha bidding. Skins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett's scheme is an offshoot of LeBeau's, and Washington is expected to be aggressive in free agency.
Prediction: Redskins on a four-year, $30 million contract.
6. Jason Babin, defensive endScouting Report: Babin was the 27th overall pick in the 2004 draft, but he didn't meet expectations until his fifth team in the NFL. Sitting on a career high of 5.0 sacks entering 2010, Babin busted loose for 12.5 in his first season with the Titans. Babin is a speed rusher at 6-foot-3, 260, and benefited from lining up wide of the formation in now-former Tennessee line coach Jim Washburn's scheme. Babin has been tried as an outside linebacker in 3-4 defenses before, but those experiments failed. He's a pure hand-in-the-dirt edge rusher best utilized in a wave rotation.
Availability: Under new line coach Tracy Rocker, the Titans want to get bigger in the front four. The team's new philosophy means Babin will only be viewed as a situational pass rusher in Nashville. Babin will likely try to parlay the big year into the best contract he can get. Because of his age and spotty track record, teams will and should be wary of overpaying Babin.
Prediction: Lions on a three-year, $14.5 million contract.
7. Quintin Mikell, safetyScouting Report: Annually among the NFL's top tackling defensive backs, Mikell also quietly earned high marks in coverage as the Eagles' strong safety. Pro Football Focus has rated Mikell as a top-eight cover safety in each of the last three seasons, and he was No. 1 in the league last year. Mikell has created 16 turnovers during that span and missed just one game. He turns 31 in September, however, and Philadelphia's blitz-happy front seven tends to make safeties look better than they are. And it may be telling that the Eagles have already moved on from Mikell.
Availability: Mikell won't be back in Philly after the team drafted
Jaiquawn Jarrett with the 54th pick. Coaches on the Eagles' staff while Mikell was there include Ron Rivera, Steve Spagnuolo, John Harbaugh, and Pat Shurmur. At least three of those have needs at strong safety on their current rosters, and Mikell will be appealing because of his familiarity and effectiveness.
Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $20.8 million contract.
8. Barrett Ruud, linebackerScouting Report: Incredibly productive, Ruud has ranked fourth, second, and 18th in the league in tackles over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, Ruud's tackle numbers don't translate to stout defense, as the Bucs have ranked 19th, 32nd, and 28th against the run. Ruud is a gifted athlete with sideline-to-sideline range, but the majority of his tackles occur downfield. He is a three-down linebacker with cover skills. It's possible that Ruud's best position would be on the weak side, where he could worry less about run plugging and just let his athleticism take over.
Availability: Ruud, 28, is an unrestricted free agent and available to the highest bidder. While Raheem Morris has toed the company line by saying the Bucs want Ruud back, the team's actions speak louder than their words; they drafted middle linebacker of the future
Mason Foster with the 84th overall pick. Ruud is likely to land elsewhere, and the Jaguars make sense as a linebacker-needy team that could use a reliable young tackler in the middle or on the weak side.
Prediction: Jaguars on a five-year, $34 million contract.
9. Carlos Rogers, cornerbackScouting Report: Ask any Redskins fan about Rogers, and the first thing out of their mouth will concern dropped interceptions. Rogers has hands of stone, and as a cover corner he's been highly inconsistent. His next team's primary task will be getting Rogers to play to his potential. With an exceptional size-speed combination (6'0/192, 4.44 forty), Rogers has the skill set every defensive backs coach in the league covets. Former Skins secondary boss Jerry Gray got it out of him in spurts, but ultimately the former top-ten pick has been a disappointment.
Availability: Rogers was relatively old coming out of Auburn in 2005 and turns 30 next month. In other words, this isn't quite an ascending young player. The Gray connection could make sense in Tennessee, where he is now defensive coordinator. Ultimately, the most likely team to sign Rogers will be a runner-up in the Asomugha sweepstakes. Rogers needs to go to a club that utilizes man coverage in the secondary, and Dallas fits the bill under new DC Rob Ryan.
Prediction: Cowboys on a four-year, $27.5 million contract.
10. Justin Durant, linebackerScouting Report: A poor man's
Jon Beason with even better speed, Durant is a thumping 4-3 linebacker with a 4.51 forty time at 6-foot-1, 232. Pro Football Focus rated Durant the second best run-stopping outside linebacker in football last season, and he is only 25 years old. Durant fell out of favor in Jacksonville due to an alcohol-related arrest in 2007 and proneness to injury; the former second-round pick has missed at least two games in each of his first four years including six in 2010. He has experience as a starter at both middle and weak-side 'backer.
Availability: The Jags have cut ties with Durant and
Mike Sims-Walker, failing to extend either a restricted free agent tender. He'll be unrestricted once the lockout ends. Current Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams held the same position in Jacksonville in 2008, and could use outside linebacker help. Falcons head coach
Mike Smith also has history with Durant.
Prediction: Saints on a one-year, $2.75 million contract.
Other surefire free agent defenders: DE/DT
Marcus Spears, CB
Fabian Washington, LB
Leroy Hill, S
Abram Elam, DE
Tony McDaniel, LB
Thomas Howard, DT
Kris Jenkins, S
Gerald Sensabaugh, CB
Chris Carr, DE/DT
Anthony Hargrove, S
Brodney Pool, NT
Pat Williams, LB
Kirk Morrison, S
Bernard Pollard, CB
Drayton Florence, LB
Travis LaBoy, S
Reed Doughty, DE
Andre Carter, LB
Takeo Spikes, DE
Raheem Brock, DE
Dave Ball, DE
Shaun Ellis, LB
Keith Bulluck, DT
Anthony Adams, LB
Ernie Sims, S
Atari Bigby, DT
Tommie Harris, S
Darren Sharper.
Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents1. Charles Johnson, defensive endScouting Report: Johnson went from impressive young sub-package end in '09 to franchise pass rusher in 2010, ranking seventh in the league in sacks despite playing for a 2-14 Panthers team that generated few blitz opportunities. Still just 25 years old, Johnson has played both left and right defensive end, excelling as a rusher and run stopper at each position. Though he lacks ideal height for a pass rusher at 6-foot-2, 275, Johnson is a relentless player who will only get better. He racked up 10 sacks and three forced fumbles off the bench in 2008 and 2009.
Availability: Carolina surprisingly franchise tagged
Ryan Kalil instead of Johnson, and the more deserving free agent was slapped with a first- and third-round restricted tender. The tag will likely mean nothing if a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached, but the Panthers have no intentions of letting Johnson get away as their best player on defense. Johnson may opt for a relatively short-term contract, setting himself up for another crack at free agency at age 29.
Prediction: Panthers on a four-year, $45 million contract.
2. Johnathan Joseph, cornerbackScouting Report: If
Leon Hall is the Bengals' shutdown corner, Joseph is an ideal aggressive, route-jumping bookend. A press cornerback at 5-foot-11, 192, Joseph has a knack for big plays, picking off 14 passes with three pick-sixes over the past four seasons, despite missing 13 games. Though Joseph has overcome chronic early-career foot injuries and a 2007 marijuana arrest, he went back on the shelf for four games last year with a cracked forearm and high ankle sprain. For all his talent, Joseph is not a "clean" player. He's also coming off a disappointing year.
Availability: The Bengals deemed the $14.5 million cornerback franchise tag too rich for Joseph, giving him a potentially worthless first- and third-round restricted tender instead. As a five-year vet, it's very likely that a new CBA would de-restrict Joseph's free agency. Hall is the Bengals' top corner and should be their priority to re-sign for big money. In the likely event Joseph hits the open market, he'll be the No. 2 free agent corner after
Nnamdi Asomugha.
Prediction: Lions on a four-year, $32.5 million contract.
3. Mathias Kiwanuka, defensive end Scouting Report: A versatile, dynamic pass rusher, Kiwanuka has racked up 23.5 sacks and seven forced fumbles through five seasons despite shuffling between end and outside linebacker. Kiwi is a long-armed, athletic pass rusher at 6-foot-5, 265. In his lone full season as a starter, he notched eight sacks and two forced fumbles at right defensive end. He was headed for a breakout year in 2010 with four sacks through three games before a herniated disc in his neck ended his season. Kiwanuka did not require surgery, and he was medically cleared in February.
Availability: The Giants tendered Kiwi at the second-round level, but he's likely to be an unrestricted free agent with five accrued years. There has been speculation that the Patriots could have interest. Kiwanuka is 28, so he's no longer a spring chicken. Coming off a career-threatening injury, he may have to settle for a one-year "prove-it" deal to rehab his value for 2012.
Prediction: Patriots on a one-year, $4.5 million contract.
4. Ray Edwards, defensive endScouting Report: A productive young pass rusher at age 26, Edwards has preyed on single teams playing alongside The Williams Wall and
Jared Allen in Minnesota. He has back-to-back eight-plus sack seasons and, according to Pro Football Focus, ranked in the top four in the league in QB pressures in both years. Edwards is listed at 6-foot-5, 268. He's been a left end in the Vikings' Cover 2-style system, which places an emphasis on pass rush from the front four. Edwards is quick off the snap and gets up the field in a hurry.
Availability: The Vikes gave Edwards a first-round tender, but he has five accrued seasons. Rather than extend Edwards' deal, they gave backup
Brian Robison a three-year, $14.1 million contract, indicating that Edwards is replaceable. Atlanta has been Edwards' most often rumored destination, and the club is clearly in win-now mode after surrendering much of its 2011 draft and a 2012 first-round pick in the
Julio Jones trade.
John Abraham is aging, so Edwards could be his eventual replacement with
Kroy Biermann rejoining the starting lineup in 2012.
Prediction: Falcons on a four-year, $42.5 million contract.
5. Antonio Cromartie, cornerbackScouting Report: Cromartie is a long-armed corner with freakish size and speed at 6-foot-2, 210. He ran 4.36 at FSU's 2006 Pro Day, and poses obvious matchup problems for big receivers. Cromartie has picked off 18 passes with two pick-sixes over the past four seasons and flashed shutdown ability in coverage. Lacking a high football IQ, however, Cromartie can be taken off his game when frustrated, and has shown a proneness to penalties. He shies from contact, particularly in run support, and must play in a man-coverage scheme. Cromartie struggles in zone. Opposing QBs completed just 43.9 percent of their passes thrown at Cromartie last season.
Availability: Cromartie has five accrued years, so he'll be an unrestricted free agent once a new CBA is struck. Multiple winter and spring reports indicate that Cromartie is likely to leave New York this offseason, and he signed with mega-agents Tom Condon and Ben Dogra in anticipation of hitting the market. Cromartie just turned 27. Teams in pursuit would be smart to offer shorter-term and/or frontloaded contracts to protect themselves against Cromartie's fragility.
Prediction: Texans on a three-year, $23.5 million contract.
Other three- to five-year restricteds: DT
Brandon Mebane, DE
Cliff Avril, S
Eric Weddle, S
Michael Huff, NT
Barry Cofield, LB
Manny Lawson, CB
Brandon Carr, S
Dashon Goldson, LB
Paul Posluszny, CB
Josh Wilson, CB
Brent Grimes, LB
Clint Session, S
Danieal Manning, CB
Chris Houston, S
Donte Whitner, S
Roman Harper, LB
Stephen Tulloch, CB
Richard Marshall, LB
Quincy Black, S
Melvin Bullitt, DE
Wallace Gilberry, DE
Jacob Ford, LB
Stewart Bradley, S
Dawan Landry, CB
Eric Wright, LB
James Anderson, LB
Stephen Nicholas, DE
Jason Hatcher.
Trade Candidates1. Albert Haynesworth, defensive tackle - Contract is manageable, conduct isn't.
2. Aaron Ross, cornerback - Became expendable with
Prince Amukamara pick.
3. Brodrick Bunkley, defensive tackle - Has lost his starting job to
Antonio Dixon.
4. Leodis McKelvin, cornerback - Bills used 34th overall pick on
Aaron Williams.
5. Aaron Maybin, linebacker - Might fetch a seventh-round pick at final cut downs.
6. Amobi Okoye, defensive tackle - He doesn't fit the Texans' new 3-4 defense.
7. Derrick Harvey, defensive end - Couldn't beat out
Jeremy Mincey,
Austen Lane.
8. Greg Toler, cornerback - Rumors he'll be involved in
Kevin Kolb-to-Cards deal.
9. Darius Butler, cornerback - The
Ras-I Dowling pick put Butler on the bubble.
10. Darcel McBath, safety - Denver drafted two complementary safeties in April.
11. Phillip Merling, defensive end - Expendable with
Jared Odrick's healthy return.
12. Tyrell Johnson, safety - Has fallen behind
Husain Abdullah,
Jamarca Sanford.
13. Jordon Dizon, linebacker - More likely to be released after blowing out knee.
14. Craig Steltz, safety - Steltz is barely even a productive special teams player.
15. Marcus Harrison, defensive tackle - Not a favorite of DL coach Rod Marinelli.
Release Candidates1. Aqib Talib, cornerback - Felony gun charge could seal his fate in Tampa Bay.
2. Nick Barnett, linebacker - Due $6.25 million, too much for a projected backup.
3. Nate Clements, cornerback - Due $15 million, but may return at reduced rate.
4. Antwan Odom, defensive end - Cincy insiders would be surprised if he's back.
5. Tony Brown, defensive tackle - Has bad knees and a $4 million base salary.
6. Terence Newman, cornerback - Going on 33 and fell off the cliff last season.
7. Kelly Gregg, nose tackle - Still stuffs the run, but
Terrence Cody is the future.
8. Aaron Smith, defensive end - Pricey, and
Ziggy Hood ready for full-time role.
9. Domonique Foxworth, cornerback - Coming off torn ACL and due $4.4 million.
10. Madieu Williams, safety - Clearly overpaid, but lockout may save his spot.
11. Alex Brown, defensive end -
Cameron Jordan was drafted to replace Brown.
12. Joey Porter, linebacker - No way the Cardinals pay his $5.75 million salary.
13. Brian Dawkins, safety - Offers nothing more than leadership at this stage.
14. Keith Brooking, linebacker - See Dawkins;
Sean Lee ready to replace him.
15. Gerald Hayes, linebacker - Hayes has been replaced by
Daryl Washington.