Adam Levitan

Draft Analysis

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Industry Draft Recap

Tuesday, August 09, 2011


Evan Silva represented us in NFL.com's industry league draft on Tuesday. It is a full point per reception (PPR) league and gives us a good idea about changing player values following free agency. Below are the picks with my notes.

Remember, we are updating the 2011 Draft Guide constantly to reflect all the changes going on around the league. More exclusive mocks will be coming there in the next few weeks as we swing into prime drafting season, also known as Fesitvus in August.

ROUND ONE

1.1 Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - ESPN
1.2 Arian Foster, RB, HOU - KFFL
1.3 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Sirius XM
1.4 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - Yahoo
1.5 Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Sports Illustrated
1.6 Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Rotowire
1.7 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB - Barber Boyz
1.8 Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Footballguys
1.9 LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - NFL.com
1.10 Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Fantasy Guru
1.11 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Rotoexperts
1.12 Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)

NOTES: I have seen the first four picks go in all different orders. It's a little surprising that after the Vikings suffered downgrades at wide receiver and offensive line in free agency, Peterson goes first in a full PPR format. ... The Ricky Williams signing in Baltimore is already having an effect. Now that Ray Rice is unlikely to see goal-line work, it's reasonable to take Darren McFadden ahead of him. ... Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't get how Aaron Rodgers consistently goes before Michael Vick. If you're worried about a Vick injury, just take Vince Young late and you're protected with a QB1. The 2011 Draft Guide has Vick No. 5 overall.


ROUND TWO

2.1 Jahvid Best, RB, DET - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)
2.2 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Rotoexperts
2.3 Roddy White, WR, ATL - Fantasy Guru
2.4 Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - NFL.com
2.5 Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Footballguys
2.6 Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Barber Boyz
2.7 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ - Rotowire
2.8 Frank Gore, RB, SF - Sports Illustrated
2.9 Tom Brady, QB, NEP - Yahoo
2.10 Drew Brees, QB, NO - Sirius XM
2.11 Greg Jennings, WR, GB - KFFL
2.12 Steven Jackson, RB, STL - ESPN

NOTES: We see the Mikel Leshoure (Achilles tear) fallout right away with our own Evan Silva. Now a threat for goal-line work and more snaps, Best is going to be extremely expensive in PPR formats. ... The owners in this league have clearly been following the Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) injury saga. Go here for more on why he is slipping. ... Michael Turner is in his decline phase, does not catch passes, Jason Snelling was re-signed and the Falcons are plotting a more aggressive passing attack. There are players with more upside out there. ... Tom Brady's ADP is going to rise now that Chad Ochocinco is in town. A full round-plus ahead of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning is worth noting. ... Frank Gore may have slipped due to lingering concerns over his hip. Note that Gore is fully recovered and set to be the focal point of the Niners' offense.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!


ROUND THREE

3.1 Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
3.2 Miles Austin, WR, DAL
3.3 DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
3.4 Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
3.5 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
3.6 Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE
3.7 Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
3.8 Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
3.9 Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
3.10 Philip Rivers, QB, SD
3.11 Peyton Manning, QB, IND
3.12 Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA

NOTES: Peyton Hillis will go higher in public drafts than "expert" drafts. Even though he figures to catch more passes in the Browns' new West Coast offense, a natural regression in workload and production from last year's breakout is expected. ... Shonn Greene is headed for a major bump in carries, but his lack of passing-game skills is a downer. ... As noted above, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning look like great values considering how high Tom Brady and Drew Brees went. Malcom Floyd returned to the Chargers and Austin Collie (concussions) appears fine. ... Note that Knowshon Moreno is back on the rise after the Broncos merely added Willis McGahee in free agency instead of DeAngelo Williams.


ROUND FOUR

4.1 Wes Welker, WR, NEP
4.2 LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
4.3 Mike Williams, WR, TB
4.4 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
4.5 Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
4.6 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
4.7 Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN
4.8 Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
4.9 Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
4.10 DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
4.11 Tony Romo, QB, DAL
4.12 Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI

NOTES: Notice how far LeGarrette Blount falls in this PPR format. He is reportedly improving on third downs, but is not expected to play in passing situations this season. ... Mike Williams and Dwayne Bowe are both monster talents that posted unsustainable catch-to-TD rates. Some owners will overpay. ... Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt are two of the biggest upside guys that are on everyone's radar. Be prepared to pay high prices for them, even against non-expert opponents. ... Antonio Gates would be a steal here if there weren't lingering concerns about his plantar fasciitis. He comes with risk this high now, especially when the tight end position is so deep. ... Wes Welker is obviously a PPR monster and gets a sizable downgrade in standard formats. The 2011 Draft Guide has him as the No. 10 wideout in PPR.


ROUND FIVE

5.1 Dallas Clark, TE, IND
5.2 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
5.3 Marques Colston, WR, NO
5.4 Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
5.5 Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
5.6 Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
5.7 Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA
5.8 Jason Witten, TE, DAL
5.9 Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
5.10 Vernon Davis, TE, SF
5.11 Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
5.12 Felix Jones, RB, DAL

NOTES: Here comes the tight end run. The first tier of five is really tight, so you will have to get in on this run right away or move on. ... Marques Colston (knee) had missed five straight practices as of Tuesday. Big red flags here. ... Ryan Mathews may have lost more value in the preseason than anyone so far. He was a late first-round fantasy pick last year, but is now a committee back that can't seem to sustain health. ... Even though Reggie Bush has been named the starter, Daniel Thomas goes a full two-plus rounds earlier. Don't let the coachspeak fool you here. ... Mark Ingram should be the first rookie off the board in all formats, even PPR.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!


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Adam Levitan is in his sixth season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
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