Adam Levitan

Draft Analysis

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Industry Draft Recap

Tuesday, August 09, 2011





ROUND SIX

6.1 Austin Collie, WR, IND
6.2 Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
6.3 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
6.4 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
6.5 Ryan Grant, RB, GB
6.6 Chad Ochocinco, WR, NEP
6.7 Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
6.8 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
6.9 Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ
6.10 Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
6.11 Joseph Addai, RB, IND
6.12 Matt Schaub, QB, HOU

NOTES: The more concussions a player suffers, the more severe they typically get. But a player that has had previous concussions is not more susceptible to suffering one. Of course, we are talking about Austin Collie. It's a gamble, but one that aggressive owners will be taking. ... Jonathan Stewart could have been a first-round pick if DeAngelo Williams walked in free agency. Instead, he sinks like a stone. ... Matt Ryan is on the upswing with a new toy in Julio Jones and his offensive line mostly intact. ... Beanie Wells is in the midst of a positive training camp. It's hard to find a potential feature back with more upside this late. Guys like Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch and Ryan Grant just feel like backs owners settle for. ... Check out Chad Ochocinco's new expected value in his new home. He went from Andy Dalton to Tom Brady.


ROUND SEVEN

7.1 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
7.2 Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
7.3 Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
7.4 Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
7.5 Mike Sims-Walker, WR, STL
7.6 Braylon Edwards, WR, SF
7.7 Steve Smith, WR, CAR
7.8 Mike Thomas, WR, JAC
7.9 Danny Amendola, WR, STL
7.10 Ryan Williams, RB, ARZ
7.11 Lance Moore, WR, NO
7.12 Reggie Bush, RB, MIA

NOTES: Manningham is generating tons of buzz as a breakout guy, but his ADP isn't out of control yet. There is still tons of value here. ... Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards and Steve Smith are all talented guys that sink due to quarterback concerns. ... Mike Sims-Walker has the physical build of a No. 1 receiver in a Josh McDaniels offense. Danny Amendola has the look of a solid slot receiver in that same offense. ... Owen Daniels is the sixth tight end off the board, but it's nearly two rounds after that "Big Five" tier. ... Drew Brees begged for the Saints to retain Lance Moore and they did just that. ... The Dolphins are claiming Reggie Bush will get around 15 touches per game. We shall see.


ROUND EIGHT

8.1 Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
8.2 Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
8.3 Roy Williams, WR, CHI
8.4 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NEP
8.5 Josh Freeman, QB, TB
8.6 Santana Moss, WR, WAS
8.7 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
8.8 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NEP
8.9 Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
8.10 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
8.11 Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8.12 C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

NOTES: Matthew Stafford is the No. 1 upside quarterback available after the first two tiers. If it wasn't for his fluky injuries over the last two years, he would be going four rounds earlier. ... Roy Willliams goes from an afterthought in Dallas to a No. 1 receiver in Chicago. That's right, the Bears coaches are running Williams ahead of Johnny Knox and predicting big things for his reunion with Mike Martz. It's a gamble as to whether he is up to the task. ... Michael Crabtree is missing yet another training camp and the Niners signed Braylon Edwards. His ADP should be falling rapidly. ... Note that Fred Jackson is finally the clear starter in Bills camp. Spiller has done nothing to threaten for the job and we project him for just 106 carries.


ROUND NINE

9.1 James Starks, RB, GB
9.2 Mike Tolbert, RB, SD
9.3 Ronnie Brown, RB, PHI
9.4 Packers D
9.5 Darren Sproles, RB, NO
9.6 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
9.7 Terrell Owens, WR, FA
9.8 Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
9.9 Ryan Torain, RB, WAS
9.10 Roy Helu, RB, WAS
9.11 Mike Williams, WR, SEA
9.12 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAC

NOTES: It still boggles my mind that defenses go this early. It's been established repeatedly that there just isn't that much difference between the No. 1 fantasy unit and the No. 10 unit. ... Mike Tolbert is going to at least get half the work, but he goes four rounds after Ryan Mathews. ... We discussed the plight of Johnny Knox earlier. I find it hard to believe that he will play behind Devin Hester, but that is what the Bears' coaches are saying. ... Ryan Torain is the starter in Washington and Tim Hightower may be the backup, but Roy Helu is the best talent. ... Ronnie Brown is not expected to be anything more than a mere handcuff to LeSean McCoy.


ROUND TEN

10.1 Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC
10.2 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
10.3 Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
10.4 Jacoby Ford, WR, JAC
10.5 Joe Flacco, QB, BAL
10.6 Steelers D
10.7 Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
10.8 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
10.9 Mason Crosby, K, GB
10.10 Eagles D
10.11 Kellen Winslow
10.12 Robert Meachem

NOTES: The Maurice Jones-Drew owner didn't lock up Rashard Jennings. He is a good bet to regret that later. ... Brandon Jacobs goes seven rounds after Ahmad Bradshaw. That is too much. ... It's hard to sell me that a defense could be worth more in raw value than a upside sleeper like Robert Meachem. ... Mason Crosby is the first kicker off the board. ... Evan Silva discussed Brandon Pettigrew's outlook in this column. ... Jordy Nelson would have been a mid-round value pick had James Jones walked. Now his upside is capped.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!


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Adam Levitan is in his sixth season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
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